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000
FXUS63 KAPX 231636
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1136 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH
COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SOUPY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUT THERE AS WARMER/MOIST AIR CONTINUES
TO FLOW UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW VSBYS
HAVE LINGERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND PROMPTED AN EXTENSION TO THE FOG ADVISORY.
BUT...INCREASING WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING SFC TEMPS ARE FINALLY
IMPROVING VSBYS MARKEDLY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO TRIM FOG ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN COUNTIES BY
NOON.

TO THE SOUTH...CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION
FORCING/RAINFALL IS STRETCHED THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL
BE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
TIMED INCREASING RAIN CHANCES S-N ACCORDINGLY. MAIN BIG SLUG OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL IMPACT US TONIGHT IS NOW WORKING UP
THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY (AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY)...AND WILL ROCKET UP
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...WET DAMP AND DREARY WITH HEAVIER RAINS TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGHING EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MAIN SFC LOW WAS SEEN
NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH BROAD SWATH OF H8-H7
WARM ADVECTION FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST OF THIS
IS WRAPPED BACK IN THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE...IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KANSAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...AND POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUT AHEAD OF BOTH SFC LOWS...WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR
ENGULFS THE DEEP SOUTH...THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ON UP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NOW FIRMLY OVER THE COLDER DETERIORATING
SNOW PACK...WIDESPREAD FOG (NUMEROUS AREAS OF DENSE FOG -
REQUIRING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY)/DRIZZLE/SNOWMELT AND STRATUS ARE
KING. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR AND LOCKED
STRATUS WITH PROFOUND SHARP INVERSION AROUND 800MB. THE FOG WAS
PERIODICALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
LOWER. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CLOUDY AND DREARY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE THE
THEME. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONE WEAK
WAVE RIDING NE NEAR EASTERN UPPER THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERY
RAINS. OTHERWISE...WILL OPT TO GO WITH CONTINUED OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. COULD SEE SOME DENSER FOG
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SFC BASED DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK. COULD SEE LESS DENSE FOG IN NRN LOWER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT ABOVE THE DEW POINTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...NICE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE/WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AND VORT MAX WORK UP INTO THE SRN
CWA...BEFORE SPREADING INTO ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO CONTINUE BUT NOT BE AS DENSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY AND DO VERY
LITTLE INTO THE NIGHT...REMAINING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG
WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

MONDAY...THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB
RH A BEEFY 90 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY) IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONGLY CURVED/CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND QUICKLY FAVORABLE OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -12 TO -14 C
OVERNIGHT) WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES?)...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW (SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE) AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH
OF THANKSGIVING DAY (THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO DEAL WITH THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
THIS REGARD). THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S MONDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...IFR PREVAILING...

SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND AN INVERSION WILL KEEP PREVAILING IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBSYS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WHERE THERE ARE SOME IMPROVEMENTS...BUT THE
CONTINUATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON. LLWS WILL ALSO
REMAIN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH STABLE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN
BRISK WINDS STAYING JUST ALOFT. OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL TURN TO
HEAVIER RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO PICK UP
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH INCREASING WAVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY GTV BAY. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOLDING SPEEDS DOWN. WINDS BACK MORE SE TONIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE AGAIN MODERATE AT BEST WITH ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER WITH DEVELOPING STRONGER NNW/NW WINDS IN COLD
ADVECTION/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES. GALE WATCH WILL
REMAIN. WINDS DO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>019-021>024-027>029.

LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231636
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1136 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH
COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SOUPY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUT THERE AS WARMER/MOIST AIR CONTINUES
TO FLOW UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW VSBYS
HAVE LINGERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND PROMPTED AN EXTENSION TO THE FOG ADVISORY.
BUT...INCREASING WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING SFC TEMPS ARE FINALLY
IMPROVING VSBYS MARKEDLY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL PROBABLY
BE ABLE TO TRIM FOG ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN COUNTIES BY
NOON.

TO THE SOUTH...CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION
FORCING/RAINFALL IS STRETCHED THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL
BE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
TIMED INCREASING RAIN CHANCES S-N ACCORDINGLY. MAIN BIG SLUG OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL IMPACT US TONIGHT IS NOW WORKING UP
THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY (AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY)...AND WILL ROCKET UP
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...WET DAMP AND DREARY WITH HEAVIER RAINS TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGHING EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MAIN SFC LOW WAS SEEN
NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH BROAD SWATH OF H8-H7
WARM ADVECTION FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST OF THIS
IS WRAPPED BACK IN THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE...IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KANSAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...AND POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUT AHEAD OF BOTH SFC LOWS...WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR
ENGULFS THE DEEP SOUTH...THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ON UP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NOW FIRMLY OVER THE COLDER DETERIORATING
SNOW PACK...WIDESPREAD FOG (NUMEROUS AREAS OF DENSE FOG -
REQUIRING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY)/DRIZZLE/SNOWMELT AND STRATUS ARE
KING. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR AND LOCKED
STRATUS WITH PROFOUND SHARP INVERSION AROUND 800MB. THE FOG WAS
PERIODICALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
LOWER. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CLOUDY AND DREARY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE THE
THEME. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONE WEAK
WAVE RIDING NE NEAR EASTERN UPPER THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERY
RAINS. OTHERWISE...WILL OPT TO GO WITH CONTINUED OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. COULD SEE SOME DENSER FOG
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SFC BASED DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK. COULD SEE LESS DENSE FOG IN NRN LOWER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT ABOVE THE DEW POINTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...NICE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE/WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AND VORT MAX WORK UP INTO THE SRN
CWA...BEFORE SPREADING INTO ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO CONTINUE BUT NOT BE AS DENSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY AND DO VERY
LITTLE INTO THE NIGHT...REMAINING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG
WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

MONDAY...THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB
RH A BEEFY 90 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY) IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONGLY CURVED/CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND QUICKLY FAVORABLE OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -12 TO -14 C
OVERNIGHT) WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES?)...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW (SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE) AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH
OF THANKSGIVING DAY (THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO DEAL WITH THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
THIS REGARD). THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S MONDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...IFR PREVAILING...

SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND AN INVERSION WILL KEEP PREVAILING IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBSYS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WHERE THERE ARE SOME IMPROVEMENTS...BUT THE
CONTINUATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON. LLWS WILL ALSO
REMAIN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH STABLE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN
BRISK WINDS STAYING JUST ALOFT. OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL TURN TO
HEAVIER RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO PICK UP
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH INCREASING WAVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY GTV BAY. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOLDING SPEEDS DOWN. WINDS BACK MORE SE TONIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE AGAIN MODERATE AT BEST WITH ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER WITH DEVELOPING STRONGER NNW/NW WINDS IN COLD
ADVECTION/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES. GALE WATCH WILL
REMAIN. WINDS DO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>019-021>024-027>029.

LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231142
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
642 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH
COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...WET DAMP AND DREARY WITH HEAVIER RAINS TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGHING EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MAIN SFC LOW WAS SEEN
NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH BROAD SWATH OF H8-H7
WARM ADVECTION FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST OF THIS
IS WRAPPED BACK IN THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE...IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KANSAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...AND POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUT AHEAD OF BOTH SFC LOWS...WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR
ENGULFS THE DEEP SOUTH...THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ON UP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NOW FIRMLY OVER THE COLDER DETERIORATING
SNOW PACK...WIDESPREAD FOG (NUMEROUS AREAS OF DENSE FOG -
REQUIRING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY)/DRIZZLE/SNOWMELT AND STRATUS ARE
KING. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR AND LOCKED
STRATUS WITH PROFOUND SHARP INVERSION AROUND 800MB. THE FOG WAS
PERIODICALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
LOWER. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CLOUDY AND DREARY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE THE
THEME. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONE WEAK
WAVE RIDING NE NEAR EASTERN UPPER THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERY
RAINS. OTHERWISE...WILL OPT TO GO WITH CONTINUED OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. COULD SEE SOME DENSER FOG
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SFC BASED DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK. COULD SEE LESS DENSE FOG IN NRN LOWER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT ABOVE THE DEW POINTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...NICE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE/WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AND VORT MAX WORK UP INTO THE SRN
CWA...BEFORE SPREADING INTO ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO CONTINUE BUT NOT BE AS DENSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY AND DO VERY
LITTLE INTO THE NIGHT...REMAINING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG
WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

MONDAY...THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB
RH A BEEFY 90 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY) IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONGLY CURVED/CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND QUICKLY FAVORABLE OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -12 TO -14 C
OVERNIGHT) WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES?)...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW (SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE) AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH
OF THANKSGIVING DAY (THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO DEAL WITH THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
THIS REGARD). THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S MONDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...IFR PREVAILING...

SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND AN INVERSION WILL KEEP PREVAILING IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBSYS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WHERE THERE ARE SOME IMPROVEMENTS...BUT THE
CONTINUATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON. LLWS WILL ALSO
REMAIN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH STABLE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN
BRISK WINDS STAYING JUST ALOFT. OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL TURN TO
HEAVIER RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO PICK UP
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH INCREASING WAVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY GTV BAY. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOLDING SPEEDS DOWN. WINDS BACK MORE SE TONIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE AGAIN MODERATE AT BEST WITH ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER WITH DEVELOPING STRONGER NNW/NW WINDS IN COLD
ADVECTION/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES. GALE WATCH WILL
REMAIN. WINDS DO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230921
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH
COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...WET DAMP AND DREARY WITH HEAVIER RAINS TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGHING EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MAIN SFC LOW WAS SEEN
NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH BROAD SWATH OF H8-H7
WARM ADVECTION FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST OF THIS
IS WRAPPED BACK IN THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE...IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KANSAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...AND POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUT AHEAD OF BOTH SFC LOWS...WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR
ENGULFS THE DEEP SOUTH...THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ON UP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NOW FIRMLY OVER THE COLDER DETERIORATING
SNOW PACK...WIDESPREAD FOG (NUMEROUS AREAS OF DENSE FOG -
REQUIRING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY)/DRIZZLE/SNOWMELT AND STRATUS ARE
KING. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR AND LOCKED
STRATUS WITH PROFOUND SHARP INVERSION AROUND 800MB. THE FOG WAS
PERIODICALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
LOWER. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CLOUDY AND DREARY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE THE
THEME. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONE WEAK
WAVE RIDING NE NEAR EASTERN UPPER THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERY
RAINS. OTHERWISE...WILL OPT TO GO WITH CONTINUED OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. COULD SEE SOME DENSER FOG
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SFC BASED DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK. COULD SEE LESS DENSE FOG IN NRN LOWER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT ABOVE THE DEW POINTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...NICE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE/WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AND VORT MAX WORK UP INTO THE SRN
CWA...BEFORE SPREADING INTO ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO CONTINUE BUT NOT BE AS DENSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY AND DO VERY
LITTLE INTO THE NIGHT...REMAINING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG
WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

MONDAY...THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB
RH A BEEFY 90 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY) IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONGLY CURVED/CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND QUICKLY FAVORABLE OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -12 TO -14 C
OVERNIGHT) WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES?)...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW (SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE) AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH
OF THANKSGIVING DAY (THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO DEAL WITH THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
THIS REGARD). THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S MONDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO PICK UP
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH INCREASING WAVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY GTV BAY. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOLDING SPEEDS DOWN. WINDS BACK MORE SE TONIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE AGAIN MODERATE AT BEST WITH ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER WITH DEVELOPING STRONGER NNW/NW WINDS IN COLD
ADVECTION/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES. GALE WATCH WILL
REMAIN. WINDS DO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230921
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH
COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...WET DAMP AND DREARY WITH HEAVIER RAINS TONIGHT...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
TROUGHING EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MAIN SFC LOW WAS SEEN
NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...WITH BROAD SWATH OF H8-H7
WARM ADVECTION FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST OF THIS
IS WRAPPED BACK IN THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. OF
MORE SIGNIFICANCE...IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN KANSAS
AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...AND POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE. OUT AHEAD OF BOTH SFC LOWS...WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR
ENGULFS THE DEEP SOUTH...THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ON UP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NOW FIRMLY OVER THE COLDER DETERIORATING
SNOW PACK...WIDESPREAD FOG (NUMEROUS AREAS OF DENSE FOG -
REQUIRING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY)/DRIZZLE/SNOWMELT AND STRATUS ARE
KING. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR AND LOCKED
STRATUS WITH PROFOUND SHARP INVERSION AROUND 800MB. THE FOG WAS
PERIODICALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
LOWER. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CLOUDY AND DREARY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE THE
THEME. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH ONE WEAK
WAVE RIDING NE NEAR EASTERN UPPER THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERY
RAINS. OTHERWISE...WILL OPT TO GO WITH CONTINUED OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG. COULD SEE SOME DENSER FOG
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS SFC BASED DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER
COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK. COULD SEE LESS DENSE FOG IN NRN LOWER WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT ABOVE THE DEW POINTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH LATE TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...NICE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SIGNATURE/WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION AND VORT MAX WORK UP INTO THE SRN
CWA...BEFORE SPREADING INTO ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE STRONG FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY
TO CONTINUE BUT NOT BE AS DENSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY AND DO VERY
LITTLE INTO THE NIGHT...REMAINING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK. SHORT WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG
WITH LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

MONDAY...THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB
RH A BEEFY 90 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY) IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONGLY CURVED/CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND QUICKLY FAVORABLE OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -12 TO -14 C
OVERNIGHT) WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES?)...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW (SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE) AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH
OF THANKSGIVING DAY (THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO DEAL WITH THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN
THIS REGARD). THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S MONDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY FALLING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
THEN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO PICK UP
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT THE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH INCREASING WAVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY GTV BAY. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH...AS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...HOLDING SPEEDS DOWN. WINDS BACK MORE SE TONIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE AGAIN MODERATE AT BEST WITH ADVISORY LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS AND FAR NRN LAKE HURON.

CONFIDENCE MUCH HIGHER WITH DEVELOPING STRONGER NNW/NW WINDS IN COLD
ADVECTION/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES. GALE WATCH WILL
REMAIN. WINDS DO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 230454
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1154 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE EVENING HAS BEEN CLOUDY...DAMP...FOGGY...AND MILD. NONE OF
THOSE ITEMS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT. STILL A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR OVERHEAD (800-650MB)...PER SAT IMAGERY AND AREAS SOUNDINGS.
THE NEXT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERCOME THIS
PRIMARILY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY (OR SUNDAY NIGHT). SO PRECIP WILL TEND
MORE TOWARD DZ THAN RA...AND WE/VE SEEN A COUPLE OF WAVES OF DZ ON
RADAR/AT THE OFFICE THIS EVENING.

HAVE SEEN DENSE FOG AT TIMES AT THE HIGH-TERRAIN OB LOCALES
(GLR/CAD/HTL). ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN CONTINUAL DENSE FOG HERE AT THE
OFFICE...BUT WE/RE HIGHER UP THAN ANYBODY AND NOT PARTICULARLY
REPRESENTATIVE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AT ALMOST
ANYTIME...BUT FOR NOW WE/RE FINE KEEPING THINGS A STEP BELOW
THAT.

TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH SOURTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230454
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1154 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE EVENING HAS BEEN CLOUDY...DAMP...FOGGY...AND MILD. NONE OF
THOSE ITEMS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT. STILL A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR OVERHEAD (800-650MB)...PER SAT IMAGERY AND AREAS SOUNDINGS.
THE NEXT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERCOME THIS
PRIMARILY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY (OR SUNDAY NIGHT). SO PRECIP WILL TEND
MORE TOWARD DZ THAN RA...AND WE/VE SEEN A COUPLE OF WAVES OF DZ ON
RADAR/AT THE OFFICE THIS EVENING.

HAVE SEEN DENSE FOG AT TIMES AT THE HIGH-TERRAIN OB LOCALES
(GLR/CAD/HTL). ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN CONTINUAL DENSE FOG HERE AT THE
OFFICE...BUT WE/RE HIGHER UP THAN ANYBODY AND NOT PARTICULARLY
REPRESENTATIVE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AT ALMOST
ANYTIME...BUT FOR NOW WE/RE FINE KEEPING THINGS A STEP BELOW
THAT.

TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING) AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH SOURTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 230240
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
940 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE EVENING HAS BEEN CLOUDY...DAMP...FOGGY...AND MILD. NONE OF
THOSE ITEMS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT. STILL A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR OVERHEAD (800-650MB)...PER SAT IMAGERY AND AREAS SOUNDINGS.
THE NEXT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERCOME THIS
PRIMARILY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY (OR SUNDAY NIGHT). SO PRECIP WILL TEND
MORE TOWARD DZ THAN RA...AND WE/VE SEEN A COUPLE OF WAVES OF DZ ON
RADAR/AT THE OFFICE THIS EVENING.

HAVE SEEN DENSE FOG AT TIMES AT THE HIGH-TERRAIN OB LOCALES
(GLR/CAD/HTL). ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN CONTINUAL DENSE FOG HERE AT THE
OFFICE...BUT WE/RE HIGHER UP THAN ANYBODY AND NOT PARTICULARLY
REPRESENTATIVE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AT ALMOST
ANYTIME...BUT FOR NOW WE/RE FINE KEEPING THINGS A STEP BELOW
THAT.

TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANSK TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIMES...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH S TO SW SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230240
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
940 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE EVENING HAS BEEN CLOUDY...DAMP...FOGGY...AND MILD. NONE OF
THOSE ITEMS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT. STILL A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR OVERHEAD (800-650MB)...PER SAT IMAGERY AND AREAS SOUNDINGS.
THE NEXT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERCOME THIS
PRIMARILY ARRIVES ON SUNDAY (OR SUNDAY NIGHT). SO PRECIP WILL TEND
MORE TOWARD DZ THAN RA...AND WE/VE SEEN A COUPLE OF WAVES OF DZ ON
RADAR/AT THE OFFICE THIS EVENING.

HAVE SEEN DENSE FOG AT TIMES AT THE HIGH-TERRAIN OB LOCALES
(GLR/CAD/HTL). ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN CONTINUAL DENSE FOG HERE AT THE
OFFICE...BUT WE/RE HIGHER UP THAN ANYBODY AND NOT PARTICULARLY
REPRESENTATIVE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED AT ALMOST
ANYTIME...BUT FOR NOW WE/RE FINE KEEPING THINGS A STEP BELOW
THAT.

TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANSK TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIMES...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH S TO SW SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 222350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANSK TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIMES...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH S TO SW SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 222350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR TO LIFR IN STRATUS/FOG/DZ/RA. LLWS.

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ENTER THE REGION. CROSSING OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOW COVER...THE RESULT IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST...WITH APN
BEING SOMEWHAT BETTER OFF THAN THE OTHER SITES THANSK TO
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SOME DZ POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIMES...-RA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.

LIGHTISH S TO SW SURFACE WINDS. STRONGER S TO SW WINDS OFF THE
DECK WILL RESULT IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.

LS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 222045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOOD NORTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVER THE SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND AT THE
TERMINAL SITES (FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS) THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 222045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AGAIN LATE MONDAY
WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

OVERVIEW: SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
STRONG JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST...AND A SECOND PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH TEXAS AND SPLIT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RE-PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND RE-CARVE DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...STOUT SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS PULLED MUCH WARMER/MOIST AIR UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. WARM/MOIST AIR OVER A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MID NOVEMBER SNOWPACK HAS...OF COURSE...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE REGION...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING TO LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS FACILITATE SNOW MELT.

TONIGHT...NOT REALLY MUCH BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS WEAK-ISH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS BUT SHALLOWER
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT JUST OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE (ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN). STRONGER WARM ADVECTION FORCING
AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MAKE A S-N PUSH INTO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORECAST THIS EVENING AND RAMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY.

SPEAKING OF THE FOG...ALREADY HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4SM
OR LESS VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCH UP TONIGHT BUT
SO WILL DEWPOINTS...BOLSTERED BY ONGOING SNOWMELT/MOISTURE
ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO...LOWER VSBYS WILL CERTAINLY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...RETURN TO SNOW AND COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALES POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF INTENSE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW AND WIND POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: LOOKING LIKE A MUCH MORE CLASSIC PRE-
THANKSGIVING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A BRIEF
INTRUSION OF SOME MUCH-NEEDED MILDER WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SUSTAINED COLD AND LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS RATHER RAPID
CHANGE HAS COME ABOUT THANKS TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...FORCING STRONG JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND HELPING BRIEFLY RID THE OVERALL
SETUP OF PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THAT REGION
FOR THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THAT SAME ENERGY WILL GO INTO THE PRODUCTION
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH FOR THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO WORK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS UPPER
RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH MID AND
LATE WEEK...A REINFORCEMENT TO THE NEWLY RETURNED CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED...HELPING UNLOAD YET ANOTHER SHOT OF QUITE COLD
AIR BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THIS SETUP WILL OF COURSE FAVOR
VARIOUS BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW...WITH AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN.

BREAKING IN ALL DOWN:

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER! STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE
TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STRAITS WHILE INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO PEG THIS AS A SUB-975MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH CERTAINLY
MAKES SENSE GIVEN TREMENDOUS COUPLED UPPER JET FORCING IN
PLACE...NOT TO MENTION AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE LAID
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LAKES. THAT SIMPLE FACT RAISES
EYEBROWS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUITE STRONG WINDS AT SOME
POINT AS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ROLLS OVERHEAD...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...CAN`T RULE OUT PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS WE SORT OF SIT IN NO
MANS LAND WITH ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION FORCING BUT CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S). FOG COULD OF COURSE BE QUITE DENSE OVER EXISTING
MELTING SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTION KICKS INTO GEAR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE-MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE LIFTING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 1 INCH...CERTAINLY EXPECT TO
SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5-1
INCH RANGE. QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS WILL THE FACT THAT CURRENT SNOW
PACK ONLY CONTAINS 1-2 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE HIGHEST DEPTH
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME RISES CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED ON MANY
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MANISTEE/RIFLE RIVERS.

HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CWA INTO MIDDAY. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THAT FEATURE WILL COME RUSHING BACK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO THE AFTERNOON....HELPING IGNITE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE ONCE
AGAIN RIGHT ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
IDEAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
BACK THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FLOW...EVEN AS OUR PRIMARY UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. BASED ON THE SETUP WITH DEEPER OMEGA INCREASINGLY PEGGED
THROUGH A DEEPENING DGZ...WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES (NOTE: VERY EARLY
GUESS)...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF A
LINGERING TIGHTER GRADIENT...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPS OF COURSE WILL CRASH FROM THE MILDER 40S (MAYBE EVEN SOME 50S
EASTERN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING) BACK THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE NIGHT.
WELCOME BACK WINTER!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PLENTY OF LITTLE ISSUES TO BE IRONED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL GIST IS FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REGION...REINFORCED
AT TIMES BY THE PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES. STILL
LOOKING GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
INTO TUESDAY AS DECENT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WHILE WE
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING ONGOING AS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL REGIME
MODERATES BRIEFLY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE AGAIN APPEARS
POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS. NEXT DUMP OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE
TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE MANY FLAVORS OF
WIND REGIMES IN THE GUIDANCE SO FAR OUT. THUS...CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOOD NORTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVER THE SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND AT THE
TERMINAL SITES (FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS) THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT OVERALL STABILITY WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY THREAT
FOR GALES. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH UP THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SPINE AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY...WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THAT SETUP SHOULD DELIVER A ROUND OF GALES TO MOST IF NOT ALL WATERS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 221944
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BROAD WARM ADVECTION FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING THAT SPANS FROM NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BATCH OF NEARLY NON-MOVING
RADAR RETURNS APPEARS TO BE A MANIFESTATION OF THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL LAKE INSTABILITY.

TOOK AWHILE...BUT STRONG SW WARM AIR TRANSPORT OVER TOP SNOWPACK
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS FINALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DID
BRING ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ON TO THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOME LIGHT ICING DID OCCUR FROM HTL TO OSC AND POINTS SOUTH (HTL
ASOS REPORTED 0.02 ICING). BUT JUST ABOUT ALL SFC OBS ARE
REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL CANCEL
ADVISORY ENTIRELY SHORTLY.

GOING FORWARD...WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR THE
DURATION. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IS HERE TO STAY ESPECIALLY
AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINT AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN AND FACILITATES MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS. BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN "NO MANS
LAND" WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND NO REAL ORGANIZED PRECIP UNTIL
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOOD NORTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVER THE SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND AT THE
TERMINAL SITES (FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS) THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 221944
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BROAD WARM ADVECTION FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING THAT SPANS FROM NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BATCH OF NEARLY NON-MOVING
RADAR RETURNS APPEARS TO BE A MANIFESTATION OF THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL LAKE INSTABILITY.

TOOK AWHILE...BUT STRONG SW WARM AIR TRANSPORT OVER TOP SNOWPACK
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS FINALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DID
BRING ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ON TO THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOME LIGHT ICING DID OCCUR FROM HTL TO OSC AND POINTS SOUTH (HTL
ASOS REPORTED 0.02 ICING). BUT JUST ABOUT ALL SFC OBS ARE
REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL CANCEL
ADVISORY ENTIRELY SHORTLY.

GOING FORWARD...WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR THE
DURATION. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IS HERE TO STAY ESPECIALLY
AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINT AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN AND FACILITATES MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS. BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN "NO MANS
LAND" WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND NO REAL ORGANIZED PRECIP UNTIL
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FLIGHT CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM/MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOOD NORTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVER THE SNOWPACK.
EXPECT SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AND AT THE
TERMINAL SITES (FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS) THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 221604
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BROAD WARM ADVECTION FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING THAT SPANS FROM NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BATCH OF NEARLY NON-MOVING
RADAR RETURNS APPEARS TO BE A MANIFESTATION OF THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL LAKE INSTABILITY.

TOOK AWHILE...BUT STRONG SW WARM AIR TRANSPORT OVER TOP SNOWPACK
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS FINALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DID
BRING ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ON TO THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOME LIGHT ICING DID OCCUR FROM HTL TO OSC AND POINTS SOUTH (HTL
ASOS REPORTED 0.02 ICING). BUT JUST ABOUT ALL SFC OBS ARE
REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL CANCEL
ADVISORY ENTIRELY SHORTLY.

GOING FORWARD...WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR THE
DURATION. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IS HERE TO STAY ESPECIALLY
AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINT AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN AND FACILITATES MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS. BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN "NO MANS
LAND" WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND NO REAL ORGANIZED PRECIP UNTIL
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...

QUITE THE DIFFICULT FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WAS WORKING THROUGH AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
MANISTEE...AND WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF ALPENA OVER BY MID
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WAS AFFECTING MANISTEE...BUT TEMPERATURES WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...THE ONLY ICING POTENTIAL
WILL BE IF DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE. EVERY
PIECE OF DATA IS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AM
GROWING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT IN THAT NOT HAPPENING...AS THERE
HAS BEEN ZERO INDICATION OF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM...OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS
WISCONSIN. SO...BEFORE ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THE THINKING IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING (MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT).

WHAT IS CERTAIN...IS THE SOLID/THICK MVFR CIGS THAT WILL GO
NOWHERE TODAY...ACTUALLY LOWERING INTO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITHIN
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK. SSW GUSTS 20-30MPH THIS
MORNING WILL COME DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ022-023-
     027>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 221604
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BROAD WARM ADVECTION FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING THAT SPANS FROM NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BATCH OF NEARLY NON-MOVING
RADAR RETURNS APPEARS TO BE A MANIFESTATION OF THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL LAKE INSTABILITY.

TOOK AWHILE...BUT STRONG SW WARM AIR TRANSPORT OVER TOP SNOWPACK
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS FINALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DID
BRING ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ON TO THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOME LIGHT ICING DID OCCUR FROM HTL TO OSC AND POINTS SOUTH (HTL
ASOS REPORTED 0.02 ICING). BUT JUST ABOUT ALL SFC OBS ARE
REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL CANCEL
ADVISORY ENTIRELY SHORTLY.

GOING FORWARD...WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR THE
DURATION. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IS HERE TO STAY ESPECIALLY
AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINT AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN AND FACILITATES MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS. BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN "NO MANS
LAND" WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND NO REAL ORGANIZED PRECIP UNTIL
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...

QUITE THE DIFFICULT FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WAS WORKING THROUGH AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
MANISTEE...AND WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF ALPENA OVER BY MID
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WAS AFFECTING MANISTEE...BUT TEMPERATURES WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...THE ONLY ICING POTENTIAL
WILL BE IF DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE. EVERY
PIECE OF DATA IS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AM
GROWING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT IN THAT NOT HAPPENING...AS THERE
HAS BEEN ZERO INDICATION OF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM...OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS
WISCONSIN. SO...BEFORE ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THE THINKING IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING (MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT).

WHAT IS CERTAIN...IS THE SOLID/THICK MVFR CIGS THAT WILL GO
NOWHERE TODAY...ACTUALLY LOWERING INTO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITHIN
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK. SSW GUSTS 20-30MPH THIS
MORNING WILL COME DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ022-023-
     027>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 221604
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BROAD WARM ADVECTION FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING THAT SPANS FROM NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BATCH OF NEARLY NON-MOVING
RADAR RETURNS APPEARS TO BE A MANIFESTATION OF THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL LAKE INSTABILITY.

TOOK AWHILE...BUT STRONG SW WARM AIR TRANSPORT OVER TOP SNOWPACK
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS FINALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DID
BRING ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ON TO THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOME LIGHT ICING DID OCCUR FROM HTL TO OSC AND POINTS SOUTH (HTL
ASOS REPORTED 0.02 ICING). BUT JUST ABOUT ALL SFC OBS ARE
REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL CANCEL
ADVISORY ENTIRELY SHORTLY.

GOING FORWARD...WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR THE
DURATION. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IS HERE TO STAY ESPECIALLY
AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINT AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN AND FACILITATES MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS. BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN "NO MANS
LAND" WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND NO REAL ORGANIZED PRECIP UNTIL
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...

QUITE THE DIFFICULT FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WAS WORKING THROUGH AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
MANISTEE...AND WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF ALPENA OVER BY MID
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WAS AFFECTING MANISTEE...BUT TEMPERATURES WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...THE ONLY ICING POTENTIAL
WILL BE IF DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE. EVERY
PIECE OF DATA IS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AM
GROWING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT IN THAT NOT HAPPENING...AS THERE
HAS BEEN ZERO INDICATION OF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM...OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS
WISCONSIN. SO...BEFORE ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THE THINKING IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING (MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT).

WHAT IS CERTAIN...IS THE SOLID/THICK MVFR CIGS THAT WILL GO
NOWHERE TODAY...ACTUALLY LOWERING INTO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITHIN
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK. SSW GUSTS 20-30MPH THIS
MORNING WILL COME DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ022-023-
     027>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 221604
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

BROAD WARM ADVECTION FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG
WITH A NARROW AXIS OF DEFORMATION FORCING THAT SPANS FROM NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN UP THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BATCH OF NEARLY NON-MOVING
RADAR RETURNS APPEARS TO BE A MANIFESTATION OF THAT SYNOPTIC
FORCING INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL LAKE INSTABILITY.

TOOK AWHILE...BUT STRONG SW WARM AIR TRANSPORT OVER TOP SNOWPACK
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS FINALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE DID
BRING ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. BUT MUCH OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED ON TO THE EAST WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DOWN THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOME LIGHT ICING DID OCCUR FROM HTL TO OSC AND POINTS SOUTH (HTL
ASOS REPORTED 0.02 ICING). BUT JUST ABOUT ALL SFC OBS ARE
REPORTING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL CANCEL
ADVISORY ENTIRELY SHORTLY.

GOING FORWARD...WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR THE
DURATION. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE IS HERE TO STAY ESPECIALLY
AS ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINT AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NRN MICHIGAN AND FACILITATES MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SNOWBELTS. BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN "NO MANS
LAND" WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND NO REAL ORGANIZED PRECIP UNTIL
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...

QUITE THE DIFFICULT FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WAS WORKING THROUGH AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
MANISTEE...AND WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF ALPENA OVER BY MID
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WAS AFFECTING MANISTEE...BUT TEMPERATURES WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...THE ONLY ICING POTENTIAL
WILL BE IF DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE. EVERY
PIECE OF DATA IS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AM
GROWING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT IN THAT NOT HAPPENING...AS THERE
HAS BEEN ZERO INDICATION OF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM...OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS
WISCONSIN. SO...BEFORE ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THE THINKING IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING (MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT).

WHAT IS CERTAIN...IS THE SOLID/THICK MVFR CIGS THAT WILL GO
NOWHERE TODAY...ACTUALLY LOWERING INTO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITHIN
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK. SSW GUSTS 20-30MPH THIS
MORNING WILL COME DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ022-023-
     027>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 221138
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...

QUITE THE DIFFICULT FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WAS WORKING THROUGH AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
MANISTEE...AND WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF ALPENA OVER BY MID
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WAS AFFECTING MANISTEE...BUT TEMPERATURES WERE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...THE ONLY ICING POTENTIAL
WILL BE IF DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE. EVERY
PIECE OF DATA IS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AM
GROWING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT IN THAT NOT HAPPENING...AS THERE
HAS BEEN ZERO INDICATION OF ANY DRIZZLE OCCURRING
UPSTREAM...OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS
WISCONSIN. SO...BEFORE ANY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THE THINKING IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING (MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT).

WHAT IS CERTAIN...IS THE SOLID/THICK MVFR CIGS THAT WILL GO
NOWHERE TODAY...ACTUALLY LOWERING INTO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITHIN
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK. SSW GUSTS 20-30MPH THIS
MORNING WILL COME DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND INCREASING STABILITY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ016-017-019-
     021>023-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220921
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO. IN
BETWEEN...STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LAKES REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN
WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION. TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR
CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. AS WE WARM
FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. LLWS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SAT EVENING (ESPECIALLY AT MBL).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ016-017-019-
     021>023-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220921
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. MILDER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP BACK ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY WITH COLD READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESTARTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...DREARY WEATHER DEVELOPING WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LOW PRESSURE WAS CROSSING FAR NRN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING....WHICH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PROVINCES. ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...STRONG WAA IS UNDERWAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT (TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE). WINDS
WERE HOWLING OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THESE WINDS
WERE USHERING IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING/ADVECTING IN (SEEN WIDESPREAD TO OUR SW
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY). THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WAS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY WARM
FRONT ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR IN THESE AREAS SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ON THIS FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (6.5C/KM). THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS
RESULTING IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT MOST
OF THE ECHOES WERE OCCURRING WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR (SEEN ON 00Z
APX SOUNDING) NOT ALLOWING PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WHEN
TEMPS WERE STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS DRY AIR WAS ALSO KEEPING THOSE
LOW CLOUDS FROM EXPANDING EVEN FASTER. REST ASSURED...THEY ARE
COMING...AND SO IS THE WARMER AIR.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TODAY...DAMPENING OUT TO SOME DEGREE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER A COLD SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND STRATUS OVER ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THAT`S THE
EAST PART.

THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE BETTER RADAR
RETURNS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SKIRT THE M-55 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.
MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION...PER FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. DRIZZLE IS ALWAYS A PRETTY TOUGH TO
FORECAST...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES
THIS MORNING IS QUITE RESPECTABLE ON FCST SOUNDINGS...GETTING UP
TO 6-7KFT...SUGGESTING A LIKELY OCCURRENCE (PROBABLY PERIODS OF
IT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MORNING...BUT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS EAST. THE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WHILE FOG ALSO BECOMES AN ISSUE. EVEN
PLAIN DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IMPACT ON
COLD/SNOW COVERED ROADS...KEEPING THEM QUITE SLIPPERY/SLUSHY. WILL
KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER...BUT DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WHETHER OR NOT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM RIGHT
NOW...AND WE MAY ONLY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALSO...DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NE LOWER UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF AN IMPACT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THAN NE
LOWER...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH/ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY...LOW TO MID 40S
AROUND/SOUTH OF GTV BAY...WITH TEMPS DOING LITTLE TO NOTHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...STAYING MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LIKELY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE SIDE.
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY
REMAINING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS BUT COULD SEE HEADLINES
BEING REQUIRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF
THANKSGIVING DAY (THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNEAKY LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO DEAL WITH). PERHAPS SOME NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
FRIDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
THEN MAINLY THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO. IN
BETWEEN...STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LAKES REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN
WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION. TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR
CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. AS WE WARM
FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. LLWS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SAT EVENING (ESPECIALLY AT MBL).


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN STILL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DESPITE INCREASING
STABILITY...BUT ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST AREAS. MAYBE
ANOTHER GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE AND RAINFALL. COLDER AIR
POURS BACK IN MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE WIND/WAVE CONCERNS INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ016-017-019-
     021>023-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220451
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST A QUICK NOTE...AFTER CONSIDERING CHANGES MADE TO WX (DELAYING
PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY)...DID IN FACT ADJUST TIMING OF WINTER WX
HEADLINES SOMEWHAT. SEE NEW WSW OR WWA INFO AT BOTTOM OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MI...WITH SEVERAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS SEEN OVER LAKE MI AND THE ADJOINING COASTLINE. MARINE
PLUME HAS TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AT FRANKFORT/BEAVER ISL/MANISTIQUE.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AWAY FROM THAT MARINE
PLUME...MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THERE IS STILL SOME LAKE-INDUCED
STRATOCU ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS
HERE.

THAT MAKES THE FZDZ FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...WAY BACK IN FAR SOUTHERN WI AND POINTS S/W. OUR 925MB
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO NEAR 50KT...SO THOSE ARE GOING TO HUSTLE
INTO THE REGION FAST OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. HAVE THUS SLOWED THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF DZ/FZDZ BY A
SMIDGE. DZ WILL BE FAVORED NEAR LAKE MI...FZDZ ELSEWHERE.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES. TEMPS WILL BE RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO. IN
BETWEEN...STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LAKES REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN
WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION. TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR
CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. AS WE WARM
FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. LLWS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SAT EVENING (ESPECIALLY AT MBL).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220451
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST A QUICK NOTE...AFTER CONSIDERING CHANGES MADE TO WX (DELAYING
PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY)...DID IN FACT ADJUST TIMING OF WINTER WX
HEADLINES SOMEWHAT. SEE NEW WSW OR WWA INFO AT BOTTOM OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MI...WITH SEVERAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS SEEN OVER LAKE MI AND THE ADJOINING COASTLINE. MARINE
PLUME HAS TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AT FRANKFORT/BEAVER ISL/MANISTIQUE.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AWAY FROM THAT MARINE
PLUME...MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THERE IS STILL SOME LAKE-INDUCED
STRATOCU ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS
HERE.

THAT MAKES THE FZDZ FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...WAY BACK IN FAR SOUTHERN WI AND POINTS S/W. OUR 925MB
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO NEAR 50KT...SO THOSE ARE GOING TO HUSTLE
INTO THE REGION FAST OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. HAVE THUS SLOWED THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF DZ/FZDZ BY A
SMIDGE. DZ WILL BE FAVORED NEAR LAKE MI...FZDZ ELSEWHERE.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES. TEMPS WILL BE RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO. IN
BETWEEN...STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LAKES REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN
WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION. TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR
CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. AS WE WARM
FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. LLWS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SAT EVENING (ESPECIALLY AT MBL).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1018 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST A QUICK NOTE...AFTER CONSIDERING CHANGES MADE TO WX (DELAYING
PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY)...DID IN FACT ADJUST TIMING OF WINTER WX
HEADLINES SOMEWHAT. SEE NEW WSW OR WWA INFO AT BOTTOM OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MI...WITH SEVERAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS SEEN OVER LAKE MI AND THE ADJOINING COASTLINE. MARINE
PLUME HAS TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AT FRANKFORT/BEAVER ISL/MANISTIQUE.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AWAY FROM THAT MARINE
PLUME...MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THERE IS STILL SOME LAKE-INDUCED
STRATOCU ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS
HERE.

THAT MAKES THE FZDZ FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...WAY BACK IN FAR SOUTHERN WI AND POINTS S/W. OUR 925MB
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO NEAR 50KT...SO THOSE ARE GOING TO HUSTLE
INTO THE REGION FAST OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. HAVE THUS SLOWED THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF DZ/FZDZ BY A
SMIDGE. DZ WILL BE FAVORED NEAR LAKE MI...FZDZ ELSEWHERE.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES. TEMPS WILL BE RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARING FAR NW ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN...SW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS STRENGTHENING IN THE LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND
DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW
WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION.
TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER
06Z. AS WE WARM FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1018 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST A QUICK NOTE...AFTER CONSIDERING CHANGES MADE TO WX (DELAYING
PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY)...DID IN FACT ADJUST TIMING OF WINTER WX
HEADLINES SOMEWHAT. SEE NEW WSW OR WWA INFO AT BOTTOM OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MI...WITH SEVERAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS SEEN OVER LAKE MI AND THE ADJOINING COASTLINE. MARINE
PLUME HAS TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AT FRANKFORT/BEAVER ISL/MANISTIQUE.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AWAY FROM THAT MARINE
PLUME...MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THERE IS STILL SOME LAKE-INDUCED
STRATOCU ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS
HERE.

THAT MAKES THE FZDZ FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...WAY BACK IN FAR SOUTHERN WI AND POINTS S/W. OUR 925MB
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO NEAR 50KT...SO THOSE ARE GOING TO HUSTLE
INTO THE REGION FAST OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. HAVE THUS SLOWED THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF DZ/FZDZ BY A
SMIDGE. DZ WILL BE FAVORED NEAR LAKE MI...FZDZ ELSEWHERE.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES. TEMPS WILL BE RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARING FAR NW ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN...SW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS STRENGTHENING IN THE LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND
DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW
WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION.
TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER
06Z. AS WE WARM FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220248
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MI...WITH SEVERAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS SEEN OVER LAKE MI AND THE ADJOINING COASTLINE. MARINE
PLUME HAS TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AT FRANKFORT/BEAVER ISL/MANISTIQUE.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AWAY FROM THAT MARINE
PLUME...MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THERE IS STILL SOME LAKE-INDUCED
STRATOCU ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS
HERE.

THAT MAKES THE FZDZ FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...WAY BACK IN FAR SOUTHERN WI AND POINTS S/W. OUR 925MB
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO NEAR 50KT...SO THOSE ARE GOING TO HUSTLE
INTO THE REGION FAST OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. HAVE THUS SLOWED THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF DZ/FZDZ BY A
SMIDGE. DZ WILL BE FAVORED NEAR LAKE MI...FZDZ ELSEWHERE.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES. TEMPS WILL BE RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARING FAR NW ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN...SW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS STRENGTHENING IN THE LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND
DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW
WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION.
TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER
06Z. AS WE WARM FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220248
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MI...WITH SEVERAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS SEEN OVER LAKE MI AND THE ADJOINING COASTLINE. MARINE
PLUME HAS TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AT FRANKFORT/BEAVER ISL/MANISTIQUE.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY AWAY FROM THAT MARINE
PLUME...MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THERE IS STILL SOME LAKE-INDUCED
STRATOCU ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO LOW CLOUDS
HERE.

THAT MAKES THE FZDZ FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...WAY BACK IN FAR SOUTHERN WI AND POINTS S/W. OUR 925MB
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO NEAR 50KT...SO THOSE ARE GOING TO HUSTLE
INTO THE REGION FAST OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS EARLIER
EXPECTED. HAVE THUS SLOWED THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF DZ/FZDZ BY A
SMIDGE. DZ WILL BE FAVORED NEAR LAKE MI...FZDZ ELSEWHERE.

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES. TEMPS WILL BE RISING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARING FAR NW ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN...SW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS STRENGTHENING IN THE LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND
DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW
WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION.
TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER
06Z. AS WE WARM FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARING FAR NW ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN...SW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS STRENGTHENING IN THE LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND
DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW
WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION.
TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER
06Z. AS WE WARM FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

CIGS DESCEND TO IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH DZ/FZDZ. LLWS.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW PRESSURE NEARING FAR NW ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN...SW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS STRENGTHENING IN THE LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN STRATUS AND
DZ/FZDZ DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WITH DOWNSLOPING SW
WINDS...HAVE KEPT APN WITH MVFR CIGS AND NO DZ/FZDZ MENTION.
TVC/MBL/PLN SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS AND RISK FOR FZDZ/DZ ARRIVE AFTER
06Z. AS WE WARM FURTHER...ALL PRECIP WILL TURN TO DZ ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW.

S TO SW SURFACE WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. LLWS THRU THE
FORECAST...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 212008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR THEN IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  DRIZZLE/
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR STARTING THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 212008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW WARMER AIR UP INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SLIDES UP THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. BUT MUCH COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ICING ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1036MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH ANTICYCLONIC WARM ADVECTION
TO ITS NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN.  BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGH IS PUSHING LINGERING LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO THE STRAITS REGION...OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WARM ADVECTION INDUCED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY PULLING STRATUS NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS/MISSOURI...AHEAD OF
A SURGE OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST... WITH A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY THAT EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS WILL DEEP LAYER WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE (850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING PRECIPITATION THREAT TONIGHT
AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TYPE ISSUES

TONIGHT: A QUIET START TO THE NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICKLY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS WITH HEIGHT USUALLY A HARBINGER OF DRIZZLE.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
THREAT INCREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING THEN FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ICING WILL BE THE CONCERN.  SO WILL MATCH UP WITH
SOUTHERN OFFICES AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH VARYING START/END TIMES DEPENDING ON
THREAT TIMING...EARLIEST ADVISORIES WILL START AT 06Z WITH NEXT
GROUP AT 09Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...A BREAK FROM THE COLD THEN RIGHT BACK IN IT NEXT WEEK...

OVERVIEW: THREE WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE
TODAY WITH CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS FROM ASIA OVER THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA...AND DEEPENING TROUGHINESS THROUGH ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NRN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS/IS UNDERGOING A BIT OF DE-
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A STRONG PACIFIC JET/SHORT WAVE (CURVING AROUND
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED ALASKAN TROUGH) ABOUT TO PLOW INTO THE WEST
COAST OF NOAM AND FORCING A DOWNSTREAM FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
AND THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF OUR PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD
AIR. THERE IS A BIT OF A SPLIT IN THE FLOW TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH THE SW
CONUS TODAY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY RE-PHASE WITH THE PACIFIC ENERGY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PATTERN FORECAST: SO...A FLATTER/PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
THE STORY FOR THE SHORTER TERM...AGAIN FORCING CORE OF COLD AIR BACK
INTO NRN CANADA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THATS BEEN BOTTLED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 (A TRANSITION THAT IS  ALREADY
UNDERWAY TODAY). BUT GIVEN OUR NEWLY ACQUIRED SNOWPACK OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF NRN MICHIGAN...THAT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SET OF ISSUES
AS RAIN EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY ON TOP OF A FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS.

BUT NOT TO WORRY...OUR WINTER FUN IS NOT OVER YET. LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEADING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PATTERN ESSENTIALLY REVERTING BACK TO
THE APPARENT NEW STANDARD...THAT IS STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHINESS/COLD AIR INTRUDING DOWN THROUGH CANADA
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AND OF COURSE WITH SUCH A PATTERN
CHANGE...HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO HELP FORCE
THE CHANGE. THAT SYSTEM WILL ROLL UP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND INITIALLY BRING THAT AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL...BUT
THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

AS FAR AS SPECIFICS GO FOR THE SHORTER TERM...SATURDAY IS SORT OF AN
"IN BETWEEN" DAY. DEEP SW FLOW AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION FORCING
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PERCHED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...DRIVING ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND 0C H8 LINE UP
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. INITIALLY...A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE EARLY ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES
BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY). BUT NOTE BATCH OF EXPANDING LOW-MID
CLOUD COVER (AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY) WITHIN BULGE OF WARM AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL GET PULLED UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS (THAT WOULD
SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP) REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES UP THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST GRAZING THE M-55/M-72 CORRIDORS BUT KEEPING
MEASURABLE PRECIP MOSTLY OUT OF THIS CWA. BUT MEANWHILE...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOVED OVER A RETREATING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
(AND SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NRN STATES) SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST FZDZ TO DZ POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SFC TEMPS CAN CLAW BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AND WILL BE SLOW
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE FREEZING READINGS SATURDAY IN SPITE OF STRONG
WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP JUST OFF THE SFC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THERE IS APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK. OF COURSE
TIMING IS EVERYTHING BUT THINK THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL LARGELY END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THREAT. BUT A SOUPY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS STAYING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TURNS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. STRONG SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW TODAY BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER THE
SW CONUS...AND BEGINS THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF
COLD AIR DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP LOW
PRESSURE LOOKING TO SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM ESSENTIALLY DEEPENS OVERHEAD AND
WE GET A PERIOD OF COMBO UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION FORCING AND WARM
ADVECTION FORCING SLIDING UP THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. BUT ALL ANTICIPATED RIGHT NOW
AT LEAST (UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM IS
DEPARTING. BUT REGARDLESS...A DECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
SNOWPACK/SNOW COVERED ROADS MIGHT POSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES. WE WILL
JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW REMAINS ON AREA ROADS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER A GOOD 24 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING FIRST FIRST CORE OF COLD
AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION
FORCING/SNOWFALL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ALL COMBINED WITH VERY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THAT TIME.

LATER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIGHT BACK INTO FULL BORE
WINTER TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP CORE OF ARCTIC
AIR (-20C OR COLDER AT H8/-35C OR COLDER AT H5) DESCENDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY/SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. BUT IN THE END...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BE BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
TO VARYING DEGREES. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH WILL OF COURSE HAVE AN IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTIONS AND JUST
WHAT AREAS SEE THE MOST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR THEN IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  DRIZZLE/
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR STARTING THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. STRONGER SW FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE WARMER
AIR QUICKLY SPREADS UP INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. MOST
MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DROP BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ021-
     022-027>029-032>036-041-042.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ016>019-023-024-030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 211746
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1246 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INDIANA/
OHIO/KENTUCKY BORDER...STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG
STRETCHES FROM MISSOURI NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE SPILLING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR HEADING SOUTHEAST.  LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...12Z APX
SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 800MB/-20C.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
BACKING THROUGH THE MORNING PER KAPX VWP...NOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE
WEST THROUGH 5K FEET AGL EXCEPT WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE LOWEST GATE.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AWAY FROM EASTERN UPPER.  MUCH
DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS UPSTREAM PER 12Z RAOBS (850MB DEW POINTS
-28C MPX/-33C GRB/-43C INL).

BACKING WINDS/ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR/LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...ALL SHOULD COMBINE TO
ALLOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO MOSTLY FLURRIES BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS...OUTSIDE OF THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR THEN IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  DRIZZLE/
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR STARTING THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 211746
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1246 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INDIANA/
OHIO/KENTUCKY BORDER...STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG
STRETCHES FROM MISSOURI NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE SPILLING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR HEADING SOUTHEAST.  LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...12Z APX
SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 800MB/-20C.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
BACKING THROUGH THE MORNING PER KAPX VWP...NOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE
WEST THROUGH 5K FEET AGL EXCEPT WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE LOWEST GATE.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AWAY FROM EASTERN UPPER.  MUCH
DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS UPSTREAM PER 12Z RAOBS (850MB DEW POINTS
-28C MPX/-33C GRB/-43C INL).

BACKING WINDS/ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR/LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...ALL SHOULD COMBINE TO
ALLOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO MOSTLY FLURRIES BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS...OUTSIDE OF THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR THEN IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  DRIZZLE/
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR STARTING THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 211645
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INDIANA/
OHIO/KENTUCKY BORDER...STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG
STRETCHES FROM MISSOURI NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE SPILLING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR HEADING SOUTHEAST.  LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...12Z APX
SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 800MB/-20C.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
BACKING THROUGH THE MORNING PER KAPX VWP...NOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE
WEST THROUGH 5K FEET AGL EXCEPT WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE LOWEST GATE.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AWAY FROM EASTERN UPPER.  MUCH
DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS UPSTREAM PER 12Z RAOBS (850MB DEW POINTS
-28C MPX/-33C GRB/-43C INL).

BACKING WINDS/ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR/LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...ALL SHOULD COMBINE TO
ALLOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO MOSTLY FLURRIES BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS...OUTSIDE OF THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. LLWS POSSIBLE AT APN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT /GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE/...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AFTER 08Z AT TVC/MBL.

W WINDS WILL BACK SW TODAY. INCREASING SW WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...GUSTING TO 20KTS LATE AT MBL. INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT AT APN TONIGHT BUT WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...SO LLWS A
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 211645
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INDIANA/
OHIO/KENTUCKY BORDER...STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALONG
STRETCHES FROM MISSOURI NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE SPILLING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SOME RADAR RETURNS NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR HEADING SOUTHEAST.  LINGERING LAKE CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...12Z APX
SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 800MB/-20C.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
BACKING THROUGH THE MORNING PER KAPX VWP...NOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE
WEST THROUGH 5K FEET AGL EXCEPT WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE LOWEST GATE.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED AWAY FROM EASTERN UPPER.  MUCH
DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS UPSTREAM PER 12Z RAOBS (850MB DEW POINTS
-28C MPX/-33C GRB/-43C INL).

BACKING WINDS/ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR/LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...ALL SHOULD COMBINE TO
ALLOW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF TO MOSTLY FLURRIES BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS...OUTSIDE OF THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. LLWS POSSIBLE AT APN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT /GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE/...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AFTER 08Z AT TVC/MBL.

W WINDS WILL BACK SW TODAY. INCREASING SW WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...GUSTING TO 20KTS LATE AT MBL. INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT AT APN TONIGHT BUT WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...SO LLWS A
POSSIBILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 211118
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. LLWS POSSIBLE AT APN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT /GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE/...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AFTER 08Z AT TVC/MBL.

W WINDS WILL BACK SW TODAY. INCREASING SW WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...GUSTING TO 20KTS LATE AT MBL. INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT AT APN TONIGHT BUT WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...SO LLWS A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 211118
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. LLWS POSSIBLE AT APN TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT /GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE/...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE AFTER 08Z AT TVC/MBL.

W WINDS WILL BACK SW TODAY. INCREASING SW WINDS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...GUSTING TO 20KTS LATE AT MBL. INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT AT APN TONIGHT BUT WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...SO LLWS A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210846
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LLWS FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

NW WINDS WILL BACK W...SW...AND S ON FRIDAY. SW WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE DECK FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 210846
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TODAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN WILL TAKE US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING.  POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: STACKED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
EAST WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING MOIST RETURN
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES CONFINED BELOW 850MB.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATION IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. ANY
REMAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DELTA T/S CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TOWARD 5C BY
00Z.  A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  MOISTURE DEEPENS TOWARD 850MB BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.  PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS
SURFACE TEMPS /WITH DEEP SNOWCOVER IN SOME AREAS/ WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE COLD BUT WILL BE RISING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ADD
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE TO SOUTHWEST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH/EAST. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
OVER SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING... LIKELY
ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPORARY LETUP IN THE SEEMINGLY RELENTLESS WINTER PATTERN UPCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN UPPER TROUGH THEN
LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND
LEADING TO MORE BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE SATURDAY MORNING...POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THE TIMING OFF THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOK TO LEAD TO MAINLY ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. SO CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WARM AIR ALOFT...THE MELTING SNOW AND ADDED WATER FROM THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE DENSE
SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
CHANGES OVER RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS). A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL AS LIKELY ENTICE ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM CANADA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY
THEN MAINLY THE 40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS FROM THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE BALMY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LLWS FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

NW WINDS WILL BACK W...SW...AND S ON FRIDAY. SW WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE DECK FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WINDS BACK SW TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GALES ON MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210452
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING RETURNS IN
NW LOWER MI. ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THE NEW PLAN IS TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT W/O ANY NEW
ADVISORIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LLWS FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

NW WINDS WILL BACK W...SW...AND S ON FRIDAY. SW WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE DECK FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210452
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING RETURNS IN
NW LOWER MI. ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THE NEW PLAN IS TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT W/O ANY NEW
ADVISORIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LLWS FRIDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
LOWER MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL. TURNING VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

NW WINDS WILL BACK W...SW...AND S ON FRIDAY. SW WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE DECK FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 210354
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING RETURNS IN
NW LOWER MI. ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THE NEW PLAN IS TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT W/O ANY NEW
ADVISORIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210354
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING RETURNS IN
NW LOWER MI. ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THE NEW PLAN IS TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT W/O ANY NEW
ADVISORIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 210354
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING RETURNS IN
NW LOWER MI. ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THE NEW PLAN IS TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT W/O ANY NEW
ADVISORIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 210354
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING RETURNS IN
NW LOWER MI. ASSUMING THAT HOLDS...THE NEW PLAN IS TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT W/O ANY NEW
ADVISORIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210307
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1007 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE IOWA...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TIP OF SUPERIOR...AND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES BETWEEN THOSE RIDGE
AXI...BUT IT IS RELAXING...AND 1000-850MB FLOW IS BECOMING LESS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AS A RESULT. THE LAST OF THE INTENSE NNW-
ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR IS MOVING EAST
ONTO THE ONTARIO COAST...WITH NW TO EVEN WNW BANDING SEEN ON
CENTRAL SUPERIOR. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NW LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALSO
OCCURRING IN NW LOWER (ESPECIALLY ANTRIM/KALKASKA). A FEW 30+DBZ
RETURNS STILL SEEN HERE...BUT COVERAGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

ON THE WHOLE...THE GIST OF THE GOING FORECAST IS REASONABLE...WITH
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND THE
INVERSION LOWERS. LES WARNING FOR CHIP CO RUNS THRU THE
NIGHT...AND THAT/S FINE. ALL HEADLINES IN NORTHERN LOWER PRESENTLY
SET TO RUN OUT AT MIDNIGHT. MAY BE WORTHWHILE TO POST ADVISORIES
(NO WARNINGS) INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES (MOST
LIKELY LEELANAU/GD TRAV...EAST TO OTSEGO/CRAWFORD). WILL MAKE THAT
CALL BETWEEN 11PM AND MID.

WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE CAD REGION...WHERE TEMPS ALREADY DEEP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS. SAME APPLIES IN WESTERN MACKINAC CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 210134
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210134
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES IN EMMET/CHEBOYGAN. VEERING 1000-850MB
WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE FETCH OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY FLURRIES/-SHSN ARE PRESENT IN THE THAT AREA. HAVE
KEPT PRESQUE ISLE IN AN ADVISORY AS MORE VIGOROUS SHSN CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE COASTLINE THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROGERS CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ019-
     021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 202349
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
649 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT WINDING DOWN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST WITH DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW EASING OFF A BIT. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL
STRETCHES BACK THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND SEVERAL STRONG LAKE EFFECT BANDS POINTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT
CONVECTION HAS EASED OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATED
SNOWFALL RATES NOW RUNNING HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. LAKE BANDING
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE-CELLULAR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
THROTTLING AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPSTREAM...LARGE EXPANSE OF
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS JUST ACROSS THE LAKE.

THIS EVENING...STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SAGS DOWN THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY DRAG SOME OF THE HEAVIER
LAKE BANDING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW VEERING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
MAY FOCUS SOME HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS INTO THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING (LAKE BANDING HAS BEEN TRENDING THAT
WAY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO)...BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF IN EARNEST
OVERNIGHT. BUT ALL TOLD...GIVEN THE DRY AIR/LOWERING INVERSIONS...I
THINK ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST SHOULD JUST
ABOUT DO IT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HEADLINES...ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL NEAR THE END OF AN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
FORECAST SNOWFALL DOESN/T RISE TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT YOU DON/T
FEEL COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE TRIMMING OUT HEADLINES YET AND YOU DON/T
WANT TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE BY STAIR-STEPPING OUT OF WARNINGS.
SO...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWS/PERIODIC LOW VSBYS THIS
EVENING IN THE SNOW BELTS...WILL LEAVE MANY OF THE HEADLINES INTACT
FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT CUT/TRIM AS THINGS WIND DOWN LATER ON.
THAT SAID...I HAVE TRIMMED OUT A FEW OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WHERE
RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ016-
     017-019-021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 202349
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
649 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT WINDING DOWN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST WITH DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW EASING OFF A BIT. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL
STRETCHES BACK THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND SEVERAL STRONG LAKE EFFECT BANDS POINTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT
CONVECTION HAS EASED OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATED
SNOWFALL RATES NOW RUNNING HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. LAKE BANDING
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE-CELLULAR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
THROTTLING AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPSTREAM...LARGE EXPANSE OF
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS JUST ACROSS THE LAKE.

THIS EVENING...STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SAGS DOWN THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY DRAG SOME OF THE HEAVIER
LAKE BANDING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW VEERING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
MAY FOCUS SOME HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS INTO THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING (LAKE BANDING HAS BEEN TRENDING THAT
WAY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO)...BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF IN EARNEST
OVERNIGHT. BUT ALL TOLD...GIVEN THE DRY AIR/LOWERING INVERSIONS...I
THINK ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST SHOULD JUST
ABOUT DO IT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HEADLINES...ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL NEAR THE END OF AN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
FORECAST SNOWFALL DOESN/T RISE TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT YOU DON/T
FEEL COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE TRIMMING OUT HEADLINES YET AND YOU DON/T
WANT TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE BY STAIR-STEPPING OUT OF WARNINGS.
SO...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWS/PERIODIC LOW VSBYS THIS
EVENING IN THE SNOW BELTS...WILL LEAVE MANY OF THE HEADLINES INTACT
FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT CUT/TRIM AS THINGS WIND DOWN LATER ON.
THAT SAID...I HAVE TRIMMED OUT A FEW OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WHERE
RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DIMINISHING...BUT OCCASIONAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI ON FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL AID IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT PLN/TVC/MBL.

NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BACKING W AND THEN
SW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-025>027-031-032.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ016-
     017-019-021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 202115
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT WINDING DOWN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST WITH DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW EASING OFF A BIT. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL
STRETCHES BACK THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND SEVERAL STRONG LAKE EFFECT BANDS POINTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT
CONVECTION HAS EASED OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATED
SNOWFALL RATES NOW RUNNING HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. LAKE BANDING
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE-CELLULAR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
THROTTLING AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPSTREAM...LARGE EXPANSE OF
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS JUST ACROSS THE LAKE.

THIS EVENING...STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SAGS DOWN THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY DRAG SOME OF THE HEAVIER
LAKE BANDING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW VEERING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
MAY FOCUS SOME HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS INTO THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING (LAKE BANDING HAS BEEN TRENDING THAT
WAY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO)...BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF IN EARNEST
OVERNIGHT. BUT ALL TOLD...GIVEN THE DRY AIR/LOWERING INVERSIONS...I
THINK ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST SHOULD JUST
ABOUT DO IT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HEADLINES...ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL NEAR THE END OF AN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
FORECAST SNOWFALL DOESN/T RISE TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT YOU DON/T
FEEL COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE TRIMMING OUT HEADLINES YET AND YOU DON/T
WANT TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE BY STAIR-STEPPING OUT OF WARNINGS.
SO...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWS/PERIODIC LOW VSBYS THIS
EVENING IN THE SNOW BELTS...WILL LEAVE MANY OF THE HEADLINES INTACT
FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT CUT/TRIM AS THINGS WIND DOWN LATER ON.
THAT SAID...I HAVE TRIMMED OUT A FEW OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WHERE
RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOW MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL AT TIMES. PLN MAY CATCH A BREAK FOR A WHILE AS
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...BUT
ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER SNOWS MAY SHIFT OUT OF EASTERN UPPER AND
DOWN INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND THEMSELVES DOWN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TVC/MBL/PLN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. APN GETS OUT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THERE.

WINDS...GUSTY FROM THE W/WNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL
VEERING TOWARD NW (310 DEGREES) BY EVENING. GUSTINESS ENDS THIS
EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-026-027.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ016-
     017-019-021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 202115
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AT TIMES HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADITIONAL
SNOW BELT AREAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A GRADUAL END TO LAKE
SNOWS TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...LAKE EFFECT WINDING DOWN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST WITH DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW EASING OFF A BIT. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL
STRETCHES BACK THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND SEVERAL STRONG LAKE EFFECT BANDS POINTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT
CONVECTION HAS EASED OFF A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR ESTIMATED
SNOWFALL RATES NOW RUNNING HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. LAKE BANDING
HAS ALSO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE-CELLULAR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
THROTTLING AFTERNOON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPSTREAM...LARGE EXPANSE OF
HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS JUST ACROSS THE LAKE.

THIS EVENING...STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SAGS DOWN THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY DRAG SOME OF THE HEAVIER
LAKE BANDING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW VEERING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
MAY FOCUS SOME HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS INTO THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING (LAKE BANDING HAS BEEN TRENDING THAT
WAY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO)...BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF IN EARNEST
OVERNIGHT. BUT ALL TOLD...GIVEN THE DRY AIR/LOWERING INVERSIONS...I
THINK ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST SHOULD JUST
ABOUT DO IT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HEADLINES...ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL NEAR THE END OF AN EVENT. ADDITIONAL
FORECAST SNOWFALL DOESN/T RISE TO WARNING CRITERIA...BUT YOU DON/T
FEEL COMPLETELY COMFORTABLE TRIMMING OUT HEADLINES YET AND YOU DON/T
WANT TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE BY STAIR-STEPPING OUT OF WARNINGS.
SO...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWS/PERIODIC LOW VSBYS THIS
EVENING IN THE SNOW BELTS...WILL LEAVE MANY OF THE HEADLINES INTACT
FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT CUT/TRIM AS THINGS WIND DOWN LATER ON.
THAT SAID...I HAVE TRIMMED OUT A FEW OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WHERE
RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION PERIOD ACROSS THE STATE...FROM
PERSISTENT COLD AND SNOW TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN. THE DOMINANT DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK...WILL
FINALLY EXIT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EXITED THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THE RECENT BOUT OF LAKE INDUCED SNOWS AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NRN MI.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD...LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
ACRS THE WRN LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THE RESULT OF LINGERING MID LVL
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINING WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND -20C. HOWEVER LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -4C AND 925/850MB WINDS
TREND SOUTHWEST...COMBINED WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL MSTR
DIMINISHING FROM AROUND 80/90PCT EARLY TO UNDER 40 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.

THE DRY CONDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW MID LVL MSTR
STREAMING BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS GULF MSTR
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND...GENERATING MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A WEAK
FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WRN CANADA...WILL GET THE WARMING
TREND STARTED AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS TO AROUND +2C. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BECOME WELL ORGANIZED
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING THE WARMEST MID LVL TEMPS TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM +2C SATURDAY TO +6C SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MSTR CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY BEFORE MID AND UPPER LVLS DRY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
MSTR QUICKLY OVERSPREADS NRN MI SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF MILD TEMPS NEARING THE 40S
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE CWA WITH PCPN MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
(EXCEPT FOR A MIX POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY) THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE WRN LAKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WRN GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN MI THURSDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...500MB RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE
REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE SNOW
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOW MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL AT TIMES. PLN MAY CATCH A BREAK FOR A WHILE AS
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...BUT
ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER SNOWS MAY SHIFT OUT OF EASTERN UPPER AND
DOWN INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND THEMSELVES DOWN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TVC/MBL/PLN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. APN GETS OUT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THERE.

WINDS...GUSTY FROM THE W/WNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL
VEERING TOWARD NW (310 DEGREES) BY EVENING. GUSTINESS ENDS THIS
EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ON PARTS OF LAKE HURON THIS EVENING MAINLY
THAT STRETCH FROM THE STRAITS TO THUNDER BAY. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS BACK SW ON FRIDAY WITH MORE GUSTINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED...AND GALES ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     020-026-027.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ016-
     017-019-021-022-028.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ008.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




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