000
FXUS63 KAPX 181410
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ELEVATED WARM FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING
WITH DEEPEST FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF OUR AREA. DESPITE
LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW 800MB ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...STILL
ENOUGH FORCING TO CREATE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES /SPOTTER
REPORTS UP TO 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN/. FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EVERYTHING GRADUALLY PUSHES TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT PCPN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT.
LIKELY STILL SOME SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING FORCING AND PLENTY OF MID CLOUD.
PREVAILING CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME BREAKS LIKELY OVER
SRN/SW AREAS. LOWERED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
GAYLORD NORTHWARD WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE
WELL UPSTREAM OVER MINNESOTA IN THE VCNTY OF AN 850 MB THETA E
RIDGE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. LATEST NAM STILL POINTS TOWARD THIS
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA THRU
THE DAY...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED FOR US TODAY. THESE ISOLD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF OUR CWA THRU THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT
EDGES CLOSER. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE TIMING OF WX/POPS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS
SHOWED A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPRINKLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
AROUND POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SUBTLE WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING THETA-E RIDGING (MOISTURE) ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE REMAIN TO OUR WEST
CLOSER TO PARENT UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WHEELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY
WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE (FROM ABOUT 850 TO JUST BELOW 500
MB). SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MARCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY DRY
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW LEFTOVER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY...WILL BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. ERN EDGE OF A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. STILL APPEARS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS OUR LAST COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR
MOST OF NEXT WORK WEEK (MORE ON THIS BELOW). AT THIS POINT...SUNDAY
EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR WRN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT NORTHWARD THRU THE LOWER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES RIDING NE THRU MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOWER...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN THE RULE BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEREFORE KEEPING OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THRU MID WEEK (AT LEAST). WARM TEMPS WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...EXITING EAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY
AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...BUT SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY. NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL LEND TO HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FIRST LOOK AT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
BKN/OVC MID CLOUD WILL REMAIN OVER ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH. SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE DAY AS WELL...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND A
HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 181051
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW HALF OF OUR CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE
WELL UPSTREAM OVER MINNESOTA IN THE VCNTY OF AN 850 MB THETA E
RIDGE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. LATEST NAM STILL POINTS TOWARD THIS
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA THRU
THE DAY...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED FOR US TODAY. THESE ISOLD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REST OF OUR CWA THRU THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT
EDGES CLOSER. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE TIMING OF WX/POPS FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS
SHOWED A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPRINKLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
AROUND POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SUBTLE WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING THETA-E RIDGING (MOISTURE) ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE REMAIN TO OUR WEST
CLOSER TO PARENT UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WHEELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY
WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE (FROM ABOUT 850 TO JUST BELOW 500
MB). SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MARCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY DRY
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW LEFTOVER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY...WILL BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. ERN EDGE OF A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. STILL APPEARS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS OUR LAST COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR
MOST OF NEXT WORK WEEK (MORE ON THIS BELOW). AT THIS POINT...SUNDAY
EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR WRN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT NORTHWARD THRU THE LOWER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES RIDING NE THRU MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOWER...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN THE RULE BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEREFORE KEEPING OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THRU MID WEEK (AT LEAST). WARM TEMPS WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...EXITING EAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY
AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...BUT SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY. NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL LEND TO HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FIRST LOOK AT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
BKN/OVC MID CLOUD WILL REMAIN OVER ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH. SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE DAY AS WELL...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND A
HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 180719
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
319 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS
SHOWED A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPRINKLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
AROUND POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SUBTLE WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING THETA-E RIDGING (MOISTURE) ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE REMAIN TO OUR WEST
CLOSER TO PARENT UPPER LOW SPINNING ITS WHEELS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY
WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE (FROM ABOUT 850 TO JUST BELOW 500
MB). SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MARCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY DRY
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW LEFTOVER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SUNDAY...WILL BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. ERN EDGE OF A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. STILL APPEARS SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS OUR LAST COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR
MOST OF NEXT WORK WEEK (MORE ON THIS BELOW). AT THIS POINT...SUNDAY
EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR WRN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL SHORT
WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
NRN LWR MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT NORTHWARD THRU THE LOWER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES RIDING NE THRU MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOWER...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN THE RULE BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE AND CLOSED UPPER
LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...THUS MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEREFORE KEEPING OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED THRU MID WEEK (AT LEAST). WARM TEMPS WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM FRONT SAGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES
ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...EXITING EAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY
AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...BUT SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SATURDAY. NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL LEND TO HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FIRST LOOK AT
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT POTENTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW IS SLOWLY PUSHING MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
-SHRA CONTINUE IN THE TVC AREA...AND MID CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD
SOUTH OF PLN. THE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON SATURDAY (WITH MBL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER).
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT FROM THE EAST
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND A
HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...AS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 180356
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN`S WEATHER WILL GROW INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE CONTINUING
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SPRINKLES AND -SHRA CONTINUE IN FAR S CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH THIS PRECIP OUT A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. SPOTTY -SHRA HAVE REDEVELOPED AS EXPECTED
WEST OF TVC...AS A SUBTLE 850MB WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD UP LAKE MI...AND WILL START TO FADE OUT
OF EXISTENCE TOWARD 12Z. THE AREA OF -SHRA FORMATION WILL SLOWLY
CREEP NE-WARD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS ALONG WITH IT. AGAIN...THIS PROCESS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER PROGGED. TEMPS NEED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
PRECIP IS LINGERING BUT GETTING LIGHTER IN SOUTH OF M-72. SOME
TWEAKS MADE TO THE MID-EVENING POPS...TO BOOST IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND TO ERODE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
DECREASING ALONG THE M-32 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE DECREASED EVENING
CLOUD COVER FROM THERE NORTH. WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPANDING
NE WITH TIME TONIGHT...THIS CLEARING WILL BE TEMPORARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RATHER INTERESTING FORECAST UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REMNANTS
OF UPSTREAM EARLY MORNING MCS SPREADING ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR...
IN-SPITE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DRYING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS THE
RESULT SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...WITH DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE AND
LACK OF FORCING MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE "WARMEST" READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THOSE EXPERIENCING RAIN STUCK MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY CENTER ON ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT CONFIDENCE HAS TAKEN A REMARKABLE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
TODAY`S EVENTS. BEST GUESS SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING FOCUS FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY
FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHERE MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...FEEL BEST BET FOR ANY RAINS
REACHING THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST BOWING THETA-E RIDGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ADVANCING EAST FROM GENERATION
REGION...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE DEEPER). WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS SUCH...KEEPING JUST LOW END
MENTION FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH WITH TIME. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS TONIGHT SUPPORTS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE
OBSERVED LAST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHUNTS EVEN FURTHER NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE EARLY...WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BECOMES. A BLEND BETWEEN
COOL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED WARM READINGS SEEMS AS GOOD A STARTING
POINT AS ANY...GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES...STARTING TO RECOVER FROM RECENT COOL
SPELL...3-4C BELOW NORMAL LAST 7 DAYS AND NEAR TO A LITTLE (1-2C)
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY (WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND WARMTH...COOL IN BETWEEN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST. PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY...BEEN DRIER PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
PRECIP LAST 7 DAYS 150-300 PERCENT NORMAL EAST OF I-75...MUCH DRIER
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF US-131 CORRIDOR. MONTH-TO-DATE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP EXCEPT SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST LOWER CENTERED
AROUND ALPENA (SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER DOWNSTATE). 30 DAY STANDARDIZED
PRECIP INDEX MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...MEAN STREAMFLOWS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON
AREA RIVERS.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE 5 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
WITH A GRADUAL AMPLIFYING OF THE PATTERN IN RESPONSE...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A REMNANT
CLOSED LOW STUCK BENEATH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GOING FORWARD...SPLIT IN THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AS WESTERN TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE NATION`S MIDSECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A BIT OF A SMALL SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN. QUASI-EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT GETTING
PUSHED NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH FOLDING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. SO TRYING TO DISCERN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THESE FEATURES COME TOGETHER WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHOULD STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PROBABLY
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER
NORTH ONE GOES. BUT THE GENERAL TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN/MIX OUT SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. PROBABLY A
LITTLE TOO MOIST IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (E.G., NAM-WRF)...THUS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS IS CURRENTLY AND NOT INTRODUCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/
AROUND 80.
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF MICHIGAN
FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT
PRESSES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NUDGING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (AIDED BY COOL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION??).
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID AFTERNOON MONDAY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CAPPY LOOK TO THEM BUT WILL HANG ONTO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE LOWER
PENINSULA...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DRY THINGS OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT AND SUSPECT THAT
IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS. SO WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE HERE...DRAGGING POPS INTO THURSDAY THEN GOING DRY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW IS SLOWLY PUSHING MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
-SHRA CONTINUE IN THE TVC AREA...AND MID CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD
SOUTH OF PLN. THE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY ON SATURDAY (WITH MBL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER).
HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT FROM THE EAST
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH NO
MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 180205
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN`S WEATHER WILL GROW INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE CONTINUING
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SPRINKLES AND -SHRA CONTINUE IN FAR S CENTRAL AND SE
SECTIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH THIS PRECIP OUT A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. SPOTTY -SHRA HAVE REDEVELOPED AS EXPECTED
WEST OF TVC...AS A SUBTLE 850MB WARM FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD UP LAKE MI...AND WILL START TO FADE OUT
OF EXISTENCE TOWARD 12Z. THE AREA OF -SHRA FORMATION WILL SLOWLY
CREEP NE-WARD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS ALONG WITH IT. AGAIN...THIS PROCESS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER PROGGED. TEMPS NEED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
PRECIP IS LINGERING BUT GETTING LIGHTER IN SOUTH OF M-72. SOME
TWEAKS MADE TO THE MID-EVENING POPS...TO BOOST IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND TO ERODE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
DECREASING ALONG THE M-32 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE DECREASED EVENING
CLOUD COVER FROM THERE NORTH. WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPANDING
NE WITH TIME TONIGHT...THIS CLEARING WILL BE TEMPORARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RATHER INTERESTING FORECAST UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REMNANTS
OF UPSTREAM EARLY MORNING MCS SPREADING ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR...
IN-SPITE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DRYING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS THE
RESULT SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...WITH DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE AND
LACK OF FORCING MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE "WARMEST" READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THOSE EXPERIENCING RAIN STUCK MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY CENTER ON ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT CONFIDENCE HAS TAKEN A REMARKABLE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
TODAY`S EVENTS. BEST GUESS SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING FOCUS FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY
FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHERE MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...FEEL BEST BET FOR ANY RAINS
REACHING THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST BOWING THETA-E RIDGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ADVANCING EAST FROM GENERATION
REGION...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE DEEPER). WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS SUCH...KEEPING JUST LOW END
MENTION FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH WITH TIME. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS TONIGHT SUPPORTS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE
OBSERVED LAST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHUNTS EVEN FURTHER NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE EARLY...WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BECOMES. A BLEND BETWEEN
COOL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED WARM READINGS SEEMS AS GOOD A STARTING
POINT AS ANY...GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES...STARTING TO RECOVER FROM RECENT COOL
SPELL...3-4C BELOW NORMAL LAST 7 DAYS AND NEAR TO A LITTLE (1-2C)
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY (WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND WARMTH...COOL IN BETWEEN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST. PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY...BEEN DRIER PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
PRECIP LAST 7 DAYS 150-300 PERCENT NORMAL EAST OF I-75...MUCH DRIER
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF US-131 CORRIDOR. MONTH-TO-DATE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP EXCEPT SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST LOWER CENTERED
AROUND ALPENA (SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER DOWNSTATE). 30 DAY STANDARDIZED
PRECIP INDEX MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...MEAN STREAMFLOWS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON
AREA RIVERS.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE 5 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
WITH A GRADUAL AMPLIFYING OF THE PATTERN IN RESPONSE...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A REMNANT
CLOSED LOW STUCK BENEATH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GOING FORWARD...SPLIT IN THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AS WESTERN TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE NATION`S MIDSECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A BIT OF A SMALL SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN. QUASI-EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT GETTING
PUSHED NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH FOLDING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. SO TRYING TO DISCERN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THESE FEATURES COME TOGETHER WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHOULD STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PROBABLY
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER
NORTH ONE GOES. BUT THE GENERAL TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN/MIX OUT SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. PROBABLY A
LITTLE TOO MOIST IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (E.G., NAM-WRF)...THUS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS IS CURRENTLY AND NOT INTRODUCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/
AROUND 80.
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF MICHIGAN
FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT
PRESSES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NUDGING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (AIDED BY COOL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION??).
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID AFTERNOON MONDAY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CAPPY LOOK TO THEM BUT WILL HANG ONTO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE LOWER
PENINSULA...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DRY THINGS OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT AND SUSPECT THAT
IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS. SO WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE HERE...DRAGGING POPS INTO THURSDAY THEN GOING DRY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW IS SLOWLY PUSHING MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA CONTINUE IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
MID CLOUDS. THE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT FROM THE EAST
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH NO
MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 172318
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
718 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN`S WEATHER WILL GROW INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE CONTINUING
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
PRECIP IS LINGERING BUT GETTING LIGHTER IN SOUTH OF M-72. SOME
TWEAKS MADE TO THE MID-EVENING POPS...TO BOOST IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND TO ERODE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
DECREASING ALONG THE M-32 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE DECREASED EVENING
CLOUD COVER FROM THERE NORTH. WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EXPANDING
NE WITH TIME TONIGHT...THIS CLEARING WILL BE TEMPORARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RATHER INTERESTING FORECAST UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REMNANTS
OF UPSTREAM EARLY MORNING MCS SPREADING ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR...
IN-SPITE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DRYING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS THE
RESULT SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...WITH DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE AND
LACK OF FORCING MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE "WARMEST" READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THOSE EXPERIENCING RAIN STUCK MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY CENTER ON ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT CONFIDENCE HAS TAKEN A REMARKABLE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
TODAY`S EVENTS. BEST GUESS SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING FOCUS FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY
FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHERE MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...FEEL BEST BET FOR ANY RAINS
REACHING THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST BOWING THETA-E RIDGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ADVANCING EAST FROM GENERATION
REGION...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE DEEPER). WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS SUCH...KEEPING JUST LOW END
MENTION FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH WITH TIME. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS TONIGHT SUPPORTS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE
OBSERVED LAST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHUNTS EVEN FURTHER NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE EARLY...WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BECOMES. A BLEND BETWEEN
COOL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED WARM READINGS SEEMS AS GOOD A STARTING
POINT AS ANY...GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES...STARTING TO RECOVER FROM RECENT COOL
SPELL...3-4C BELOW NORMAL LAST 7 DAYS AND NEAR TO A LITTLE (1-2C)
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY (WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND WARMTH...COOL IN BETWEEN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST. PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY...BEEN DRIER PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
PRECIP LAST 7 DAYS 150-300 PERCENT NORMAL EAST OF I-75...MUCH DRIER
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF US-131 CORRIDOR. MONTH-TO-DATE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP EXCEPT SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST LOWER CENTERED
AROUND ALPENA (SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER DOWNSTATE). 30 DAY STANDARDIZED
PRECIP INDEX MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...MEAN STREAMFLOWS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON
AREA RIVERS.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE 5 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
WITH A GRADUAL AMPLIFYING OF THE PATTERN IN RESPONSE...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A REMNANT
CLOSED LOW STUCK BENEATH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GOING FORWARD...SPLIT IN THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AS WESTERN TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE NATION`S MIDSECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A BIT OF A SMALL SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN. QUASI-EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT GETTING
PUSHED NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH FOLDING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. SO TRYING TO DISCERN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THESE FEATURES COME TOGETHER WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHOULD STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PROBABLY
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER
NORTH ONE GOES. BUT THE GENERAL TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN/MIX OUT SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. PROBABLY A
LITTLE TOO MOIST IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (E.G., NAM-WRF)...THUS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS IS CURRENTLY AND NOT INTRODUCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/
AROUND 80.
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF MICHIGAN
FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT
PRESSES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NUDGING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (AIDED BY COOL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION??).
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID AFTERNOON MONDAY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CAPPY LOOK TO THEM BUT WILL HANG ONTO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE LOWER
PENINSULA...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DRY THINGS OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT AND SUSPECT THAT
IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS. SO WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE HERE...DRAGGING POPS INTO THURSDAY THEN GOING DRY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW IS SLOWLY PUSHING MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA CONTINUE IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
MID CLOUDS. THE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND LIGHT FROM THE EAST
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH NO
MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 172005
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN`S WEATHER WILL GROW INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE CONTINUING
EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RATHER INTERESTING FORECAST UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REMNANTS
OF UPSTREAM EARLY MORNING MCS SPREADING ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR...
IN-SPITE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL DRYING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINS THE
RESULT SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...WITH DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE AND
LACK OF FORCING MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE "WARMEST" READINGS WELL INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THOSE EXPERIENCING RAIN STUCK MAINLY IN
THE 50S. FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY CENTER ON ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT CONFIDENCE HAS TAKEN A REMARKABLE DOWNWARD TREND AFTER
TODAY`S EVENTS. BEST GUESS SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING FOCUS FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY
FURTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST WHERE MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...FEEL BEST BET FOR ANY RAINS
REACHING THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST BOWING THETA-E RIDGE MAY
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ADVANCING EAST FROM GENERATION
REGION...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE DEEPER). WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS SUCH...KEEPING JUST LOW END
MENTION FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH WITH TIME. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS TONIGHT SUPPORTS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE
OBSERVED LAST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHUNTS EVEN FURTHER NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD DOMINATE EARLY...WITH TRENDS SUPPORTING SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW AGGRESSIVE CLEARING BECOMES. A BLEND BETWEEN
COOL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED WARM READINGS SEEMS AS GOOD A STARTING
POINT AS ANY...GIVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES...STARTING TO RECOVER FROM RECENT COOL
SPELL...3-4C BELOW NORMAL LAST 7 DAYS AND NEAR TO A LITTLE (1-2C)
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY (WESTERN AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND WARMTH...COOL IN BETWEEN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF
COAST. PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY...BEEN DRIER PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
PRECIP LAST 7 DAYS 150-300 PERCENT NORMAL EAST OF I-75...MUCH DRIER
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF US-131 CORRIDOR. MONTH-TO-DATE
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP EXCEPT SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST LOWER CENTERED
AROUND ALPENA (SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER DOWNSTATE). 30 DAY STANDARDIZED
PRECIP INDEX MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...MEAN STREAMFLOWS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON
AREA RIVERS.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE 5 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
WITH A GRADUAL AMPLIFYING OF THE PATTERN IN RESPONSE...WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A REMNANT
CLOSED LOW STUCK BENEATH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GOING FORWARD...SPLIT IN THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AS WESTERN TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE NATION`S MIDSECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A BIT OF A SMALL SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN. QUASI-EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE COMING DAYS...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT GETTING
PUSHED NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH FOLDING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. SO TRYING TO DISCERN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THESE FEATURES COME TOGETHER WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHOULD STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...PROBABLY
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER
NORTH ONE GOES. BUT THE GENERAL TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN/MIX OUT SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. PROBABLY A
LITTLE TOO MOIST IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE (E.G., NAM-WRF)...THUS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS IS CURRENTLY AND NOT INTRODUCE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/
AROUND 80.
DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF MICHIGAN
FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT
PRESSES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NUDGING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (AIDED BY COOL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION??).
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID AFTERNOON MONDAY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE MORE CAPPY LOOK TO THEM BUT WILL HANG ONTO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE LOWER
PENINSULA...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT CAN CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DRY THINGS OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BUT NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT AND SUSPECT THAT
IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS. SO WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE HERE...DRAGGING POPS INTO THURSDAY THEN GOING DRY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXTENSIVE DECK OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES RIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAINS ALREADY OCCURRING AT KMBL...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINS MAY EDGE NORTH TO
TVC LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH NO IMPACT TO VIS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH NO
MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 171725
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGANS WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MOIST AIR PRESSING INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WELL...HIGH RES RUNS HAVE SHOWN THEIR USEFULNESS...PEGGING
DECAYING MCS REMNANTS OVERSPREADING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS NO DOUBT BEAR THIS
OUT...WITH LIGHT RAIN REPORTED AT FKS...MBL...AND CAD WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR. THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST...AND
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUSTED FORECAST TO SHOW THESE TRENDS. COOL
EAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ALSO PLAYING
HAVOC WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS. READINGS ALREADY WELL SHORT OF WHAT
WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE DOWNWARD...ALTHOUGH
WHERE RAIN PERSISTS...MAY NOT YET BE COOL ENOUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING FORECAST DEVELOPING FOR TODAY. UPSTREAM
REMNANT MCS ON LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION/NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LEADING EDGE RETURNS SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR AREA
(EVEN SOME EVIDENCE OF MID LEVEL FGEN HELPING MAINTAIN/EXPAND THESE
LEADING EDGE SHOWERS). LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AND JUST HAD FIRST
REPORTS OF RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE AT CADILLAC. HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST A TOUCH MORE PESSIMISTICALLY SOUTH OF TRAVERSE
CITY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS NOT PESSIMISTICALLY ENOUGH.
LATEST HIGH RES HRRR SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...DRIVING DECAYING MCS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING RATHER
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS. PERUSAL OF OTHER GUIDANCE AND MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OTHERWISE...WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
AND LOSS OF DYNAMICS ESSENTIALLY FULLY DECAYING THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. THAT SAID...RADAR RETURNS MORE THAN
OMINOUS...AND DEFINITE FUTURE CHANGES MORE THAN EXPECTED. MORE
CLOUDS/RAIN WOULD ALSO MEAN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE MOMENT. SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUDS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL ABUNDANT
HIGHER CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. THUS PARTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD WORK OUT.
OTHERWISE...QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S WITH A FEW
SPOTS COLDER (PLN IS 32F). WARMEST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE SW
COUNTIES (TVC/FKS/MBL...ETC). CAN PROBABLY SAFELY TRIM THOSE
COUNTIES OUT OF THE FREEZE ADVISORY EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CURRENTLY
BUT STARTING TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS TROUGHINESS DEEPENS ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SIGNALING WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS NUDGED IT/S WAY DOWN OUT OF ONTARIO
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA...BUT WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM US AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION AS WELL AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THUS...WILL SEE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES...A LITTLE WARMER AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PERSIST AND EXPECT
INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON LIKE THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GOING BELOW 25
PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 75 FOR MOST AREAS
AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). YES IT WILL BE DRY
BUT WITHOUT DECENT WIND...WILL NOT HAVE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MOIST AIR (HIGH THETA-E) BUILDS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST SURGE/FORCING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WHERE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OR DEVELOP. HERE AT HOME...NOT SO IMPRESSED. NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL BE INCHING UP THROUGH STATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING
FORCING (MOIST CONVERGENCE) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WHERE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED. SUPPOSE ITS
PLAUSIBLE WE GET A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ADVANCING THETA-E GRADIENT ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE JUST NOT
THAT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. IN THE END...FOR CONTINUITY AND
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE TRIMMED
POPS BACK TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BECOME
LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY DRY
OUT BY THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HOW MUCH IT WILL
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS THETA-E
RIDGING APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY RAIN...AS THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS TO SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S...WITH THE WARMER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY EXPECTED.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY THEN BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED MODELS THEN VARY ON THE TIMING OF DRYING FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WILL PENCIL THURSDAY IN AS A DRY DAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWN TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. REMAINING WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW COOLING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXTENSIVE DECK OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES RIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAINS ALREADY OCCURRING AT KMBL...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINS MAY EDGE NORTH TO
TVC LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH NO IMPACT TO VIS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 171337
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGANS WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MOIST AIR PRESSING INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING FORECAST DEVELOPING FOR TODAY. UPSTREAM
REMNANT MCS ON LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION/NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LEADING EDGE RETURNS SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR AREA
(EVEN SOME EVIDENCE OF MID LEVEL FGEN HELPING MAINTAIN/EXPAND THESE
LEADING EDGE SHOWERS). LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AND JUST HAD FIRST
REPORTS OF RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE AT CADILLAC. HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST A TOUCH MORE PESSIMISTICALLY SOUTH OF TRAVERSE
CITY...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS NOT PESSIMISTICALLY ENOUGH.
LATEST HIGH RES HRRR SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING...DRIVING DECAYING MCS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING RATHER
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS. PERUSAL OF OTHER GUIDANCE AND MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OTHERWISE...WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
AND LOSS OF DYNAMICS ESSENTIALLY FULLY DECAYING THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR AREA. THAT SAID...RADAR RETURNS MORE THAN
OMINOUS...AND DEFINITE FUTURE CHANGES MORE THAN EXPECTED. MORE
CLOUDS/RAIN WOULD ALSO MEAN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE MOMENT. SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUDS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL ABUNDANT
HIGHER CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. THUS PARTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD WORK OUT.
OTHERWISE...QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S WITH A FEW
SPOTS COLDER (PLN IS 32F). WARMEST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE SW
COUNTIES (TVC/FKS/MBL...ETC). CAN PROBABLY SAFELY TRIM THOSE
COUNTIES OUT OF THE FREEZE ADVISORY EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CURRENTLY
BUT STARTING TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS TROUGHINESS DEEPENS ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SIGNALING WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS NUDGED IT/S WAY DOWN OUT OF ONTARIO
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA...BUT WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM US AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION AS WELL AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THUS...WILL SEE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES...A LITTLE WARMER AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PERSIST AND EXPECT
INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON LIKE THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GOING BELOW 25
PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 75 FOR MOST AREAS
AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). YES IT WILL BE DRY
BUT WITHOUT DECENT WIND...WILL NOT HAVE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MOIST AIR (HIGH THETA-E) BUILDS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST SURGE/FORCING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WHERE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OR DEVELOP. HERE AT HOME...NOT SO IMPRESSED. NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL BE INCHING UP THROUGH STATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING
FORCING (MOIST CONVERGENCE) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WHERE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED. SUPPOSE ITS
PLAUSIBLE WE GET A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ADVANCING THETA-E GRADIENT ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE JUST NOT
THAT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. IN THE END...FOR CONTINUITY AND
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE TRIMMED
POPS BACK TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BECOME
LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY DRY
OUT BY THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HOW MUCH IT WILL
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS THETA-E
RIDGING APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY RAIN...AS THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS TO SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S...WITH THE WARMER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY EXPECTED.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY THEN BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED MODELS THEN VARY ON THE TIMING OF DRYING FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WILL PENCIL THURSDAY IN AS A DRY DAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWN TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. REMAINING WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW COOLING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS) WITH WIND DIRECTIONS LAKE DOMINATED AT THE
TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 171006
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
606 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGANS WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MOIST AIR PRESSING INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE MOMENT. SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUDS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL ABUNDANT
HIGHER CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY. THUS PARTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD WORK OUT.
OTHERWISE...QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S WITH A FEW
SPOTS COLDER (PLN IS 32F). WARMEST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE SW
COUNTIES (TVC/FKS/MBL...ETC). CAN PROBABLY SAFELY TRIM THOSE
COUNTIES OUT OF THE FREEZE ADVISORY EARLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CURRENTLY
BUT STARTING TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS TROUGHINESS DEEPENS ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SIGNALING WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS NUDGED IT/S WAY DOWN OUT OF ONTARIO
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA...BUT WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM US AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION AS WELL AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THUS...WILL SEE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES...A LITTLE WARMER AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PERSIST AND EXPECT
INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON LIKE THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GOING BELOW 25
PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 75 FOR MOST AREAS
AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). YES IT WILL BE DRY
BUT WITHOUT DECENT WIND...WILL NOT HAVE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MOIST AIR (HIGH THETA-E) BUILDS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST SURGE/FORCING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WHERE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OR DEVELOP. HERE AT HOME...NOT SO IMPRESSED. NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL BE INCHING UP THROUGH STATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING
FORCING (MOIST CONVERGENCE) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WHERE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED. SUPPOSE ITS
PLAUSIBLE WE GET A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ADVANCING THETA-E GRADIENT ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE JUST NOT
THAT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. IN THE END...FOR CONTINUITY AND
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE TRIMMED
POPS BACK TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BECOME
LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY DRY
OUT BY THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HOW MUCH IT WILL
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS THETA-E
RIDGING APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY RAIN...AS THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS TO SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S...WITH THE WARMER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY EXPECTED.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY THEN BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED MODELS THEN VARY ON THE TIMING OF DRYING FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WILL PENCIL THURSDAY IN AS A DRY DAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWN TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. REMAINING WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW COOLING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS) WITH WIND DIRECTIONS LAKE DOMINATED AT THE
TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 170752
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGANS WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WARM AND MOIST AIR PRESSING INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH WOODS OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CURRENTLY
BUT STARTING TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS TROUGHINESS DEEPENS ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SIGNALING WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS NUDGED IT/S WAY DOWN OUT OF ONTARIO
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA...BUT WILL STAY WELL AWAY FROM US AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION AS WELL AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THUS...WILL SEE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES...A LITTLE WARMER AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PERSIST AND EXPECT
INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON LIKE THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GOING BELOW 25
PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 75 FOR MOST AREAS
AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 MPH). YES IT WILL BE DRY
BUT WITHOUT DECENT WIND...WILL NOT HAVE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MOIST AIR (HIGH THETA-E) BUILDS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST SURGE/FORCING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WHERE ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OR DEVELOP. HERE AT HOME...NOT SO IMPRESSED. NW-SE ORIENTED THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL BE INCHING UP THROUGH STATE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. BUT AGAIN...MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTING
FORCING (MOIST CONVERGENCE) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WHERE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED. SUPPOSE ITS
PLAUSIBLE WE GET A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ADVANCING THETA-E GRADIENT ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE JUST NOT
THAT SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. IN THE END...FOR CONTINUITY AND
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE TRIMMED
POPS BACK TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BECOME
LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM OUR SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY DRY
OUT BY THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HOW MUCH IT WILL
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS THETA-E
RIDGING APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO ACTUALLY RAIN...AS THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS TO SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S...WITH THE WARMER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY EXPECTED.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY THEN BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED MODELS THEN VARY ON THE TIMING OF DRYING FROM THE
NORTH...BUT WILL PENCIL THURSDAY IN AS A DRY DAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWN TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. REMAINING WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW COOLING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO MI FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE EAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR. NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME -SHRA COULD
APPROACH NW LOWER MI FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY
THAN ACTUAL PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIGHT WINDS/LOW WAVES WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES NEEDED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A HANDFUL OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. AT THAT TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 170349
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1149 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. COOLER/DRIER AIR HAS STEADILY
FILTERED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO
THE 40S IN A NUMBER OF LOCALES...AND IT/S UNUSUAL TO SEE TVC AMONG
THE COLD SPOTS (AT LEAST IN NORTHERN LOWER) AT 47F. THOUGH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD CALM...WE DO HAVE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF
FROM TSRA IN IOWA TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...TEMPS ARE
OFF TO A SOLID HEAD-START. FROST ADVIS SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
JUST SOME HOUSEKEEPING TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS THIS EVENING...NO
OTHER CHANGES OF NOTE SO FAR. AM WAITING FOR RH LEVELS TO RISE
ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE REMOVING FIRE DANGER WORDING FROM
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK...BUT THAT SHOULD HAPPEN BY 9 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-FILLED SKIES AND RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE THE NAME OF
THE GAME THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. COMBO OF VERY DRY AIR...REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE HAVE FALLING JUST
SHY OF REG FLAG CRITERIA. ABOVE IS ALL PART OF A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS FLANKED BY DUAL LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS. UPSTREAM RIDGING
STEADILY BUILDING EAST...NOTED BY SLOWLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ABOVE ENSURES RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH
FORECAST CONCERNS TIED TO OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD
TRENDS (AND POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT).
ABOUT IDEAL SET-UP FOR A QUICK NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND AMBIENT VERY DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT DEW POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW MORE HOURS YET OF MIXING SUGGESTING EVEN LOWER
DEW POINTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. NAM-WRF BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES
SHOW TONIGHTS OVERHEAD AIR MASS WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA LAST
NIGHT...WHERE LOWS DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATION...BUT STILL THINK WIDESPREAD READING IN THE MID 30S ARE
EASILY ATTAINABLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH ISOLATED
NEAR 30 DEGREE LOWS IN THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS. OF
COURSE...JUST A TOUCH WARMER NEAR THE BIG WATERS SHORELINES.
UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOW-OFF AND INITIAL STAGES OF HIGH LEVEL
SATURATION LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. DON`T THINK THESE WILL
HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON OVERNIGHT READINGS...HOWEVER. THUS...WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EXCLUDING GLADWIN AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES NOT IN SEASON YET NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE).
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WA
CONTINUES. BETTER SHOWER PRODUCING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/MID LEVEL
WIND CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR A LATE DAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. MODIFYING AIR MASS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL ABOVE
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DEW POINTS IN THE 30S...ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND WITH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FIVE WAVE PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN IN PLACE. FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM MOSTLY ZONAL TO A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS REMNANTS OF AN OLD BAA
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S TEXAS TORNADO
OUTBREAK) MOVES THROUGH. TROUGHING BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW...WHICH SETS THE
STAGE FOR GREAT LAKES WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WESTERN END
OF THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BOW NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEEN TRYING
TO PUSH ALONG THE IDEA OF A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST...BUT WONDERING IF
THAT PUSH IS GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO AN END. WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TOWARD MICHIGAN. NO INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY AND MOIST INFLOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTED AT THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT MAY END UP WITH A AC/AS DECK AND SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT ALSO DOESN`T
LOOK AS NICE SATURDAY AS EARLIER EXPECTED (AT THE VERY LEAST A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDY...AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL REFLECT THAT IDEA).
WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRIER AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS
ENERGY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE NEXT WEEK. EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN. WILL PROBABLY NOT VACILLATE
TOO MUCH ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING THINGS
GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND WILL WAIT ON THE DETAILS (THOUGH POSSIBLE
THAT MONDAY MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO MI FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE EAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR. NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME -SHRA COULD
APPROACH NW LOWER MI FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY
THAN ACTUAL PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE...
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME EAST FRIDAY...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 170204
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1004 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. COOLER/DRIER AIR HAS STEADILY
FILTERED IN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS ALREADY DOWN INTO
THE 40S IN A NUMBER OF LOCALES...AND IT/S UNUSUAL TO SEE TVC AMONG
THE COLD SPOTS (AT LEAST IN NORTHERN LOWER) AT 47F. THOUGH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD CALM...WE DO HAVE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF
FROM TSRA IN IOWA TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...TEMPS ARE
OFF TO A SOLID HEAD-START. FROST ADVIS SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
JUST SOME HOUSEKEEPING TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS THIS EVENING...NO
OTHER CHANGES OF NOTE SO FAR. AM WAITING FOR RH LEVELS TO RISE
ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE REMOVING FIRE DANGER WORDING FROM
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK...BUT THAT SHOULD HAPPEN BY 9 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-FILLED SKIES AND RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE THE NAME OF
THE GAME THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. COMBO OF VERY DRY AIR...REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE HAVE FALLING JUST
SHY OF REG FLAG CRITERIA. ABOVE IS ALL PART OF A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS FLANKED BY DUAL LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS. UPSTREAM RIDGING
STEADILY BUILDING EAST...NOTED BY SLOWLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ABOVE ENSURES RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH
FORECAST CONCERNS TIED TO OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD
TRENDS (AND POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT).
ABOUT IDEAL SET-UP FOR A QUICK NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND AMBIENT VERY DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT DEW POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW MORE HOURS YET OF MIXING SUGGESTING EVEN LOWER
DEW POINTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. NAM-WRF BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES
SHOW TONIGHTS OVERHEAD AIR MASS WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA LAST
NIGHT...WHERE LOWS DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATION...BUT STILL THINK WIDESPREAD READING IN THE MID 30S ARE
EASILY ATTAINABLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH ISOLATED
NEAR 30 DEGREE LOWS IN THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS. OF
COURSE...JUST A TOUCH WARMER NEAR THE BIG WATERS SHORELINES.
UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOW-OFF AND INITIAL STAGES OF HIGH LEVEL
SATURATION LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. DON`T THINK THESE WILL
HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON OVERNIGHT READINGS...HOWEVER. THUS...WILL
GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EXCLUDING GLADWIN AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES NOT IN SEASON YET NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE).
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WA
CONTINUES. BETTER SHOWER PRODUCING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/MID LEVEL
WIND CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR A LATE DAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. MODIFYING AIR MASS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL ABOVE
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DEW POINTS IN THE 30S...ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND WITH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FIVE WAVE PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN IN PLACE. FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM MOSTLY ZONAL TO A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS REMNANTS OF AN OLD BAA
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S TEXAS TORNADO
OUTBREAK) MOVES THROUGH. TROUGHING BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW...WHICH SETS THE
STAGE FOR GREAT LAKES WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WESTERN END
OF THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BOW NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEEN TRYING
TO PUSH ALONG THE IDEA OF A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST...BUT WONDERING IF
THAT PUSH IS GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO AN END. WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TOWARD MICHIGAN. NO INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY AND MOIST INFLOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTED AT THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT MAY END UP WITH A AC/AS DECK AND SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT ALSO DOESN`T
LOOK AS NICE SATURDAY AS EARLIER EXPECTED (AT THE VERY LEAST A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDY...AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL REFLECT THAT IDEA).
WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRIER AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS
ENERGY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE NEXT WEEK. EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN. WILL PROBABLY NOT VACILLATE
TOO MUCH ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING THINGS
GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND WILL WAIT ON THE DETAILS (THOUGH POSSIBLE
THAT MONDAY MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO MI FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VERY COMFORTABLY VFR. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE...
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME EAST FRIDAY...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 162326
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
726 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
JUST SOME HOUSEKEEPING TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS THIS EVENING...NO
OTHER CHANGES OF NOTE SO FAR. AM WAITING FOR RH LEVELS TO RISE
ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE REMOVING FIRE DANGER WORDING FROM
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK...BUT THAT SHOULD HAPPEN BY 9 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-FILLED SKIES AND RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE THE NAME OF
THE GAME THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. COMBO OF VERY DRY AIR...REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE HAVE FALLING JUST
SHY OF REG FLAG CRITERIA. ABOVE IS ALL PART OF A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS FLANKED BY DUAL LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS. UPSTREAM RIDGING
STEADILY BUILDING EAST...NOTED BY SLOWLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ABOVE ENSURES RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH
FORECAST CONCERNS TIED TO OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD
TRENDS (AND POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT).
ABOUT IDEAL SET-UP FOR A QUICK NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND AMBIENT VERY DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT DEW POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW MORE HOURS YET OF MIXING SUGGESTING EVEN LOWER
DEW POINTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. NAM-WRF BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES
SHOW TONIGHTS OVERHEAD AIR MASS WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA LAST
NIGHT...WHERE LOWS DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATION...BUT STILL THINK WIDESPREAD READING IN THE MID 30S ARE
EASILY ATTAINABLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH ISOLATED
NEAR 30 DEGREE LOWS IN THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS. OF
COURSE...JUST A TOUCH WARMER NEAR THE BIG WATERS SHORELINES.
UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOW-OFF AND INITIAL STAGES OF HIGH LEVEL SATURATION
LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. DON`T THINK THESE WILL HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON
OVERNIGHT READINGS...HOWEVER. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EXCLUDING GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING (FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES NOT IN SEASON YET NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE).
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WA
CONTINUES. BETTER SHOWER PRODUCING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/MID LEVEL
WIND CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR A LATE DAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. MODIFYING AIR MASS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL ABOVE
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DEW POINTS IN THE 30S...ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND WITH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FIVE WAVE PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN IN PLACE. FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM MOSTLY ZONAL TO A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS REMNANTS OF AN OLD BAA
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S TEXAS TORNADO
OUTBREAK) MOVES THROUGH. TROUGHING BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW...WHICH SETS THE
STAGE FOR GREAT LAKES WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WESTERN END
OF THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BOW NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEEN TRYING
TO PUSH ALONG THE IDEA OF A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST...BUT WONDERING IF
THAT PUSH IS GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO AN END. WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TOWARD MICHIGAN. NO INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY AND MOIST INFLOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTED AT THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT MAY END UP WITH A AC/AS DECK AND SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT ALSO DOESN`T
LOOK AS NICE SATURDAY AS EARLIER EXPECTED (AT THE VERY LEAST A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDY...AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL REFLECT THAT IDEA).
WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRIER AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS
ENERGY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE NEXT WEEK. EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN. WILL PROBABLY NOT VACILLATE
TOO MUCH ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING THINGS
GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND WILL WAIT ON THE DETAILS (THOUGH POSSIBLE
THAT MONDAY MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO MI FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TVC/MBL AREA...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VERY COMFORTABLY VFR. WINDS WILL GO CALM THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE...
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME EAST FRIDAY...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 161959
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING CLEAR AND
CHILLY NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON SATURDAY...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
SUN-FILLED SKIES AND RATHER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE THE NAME OF
THE GAME THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. COMBO OF VERY DRY AIR...REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE HAVE FALLING JUST
SHY OF REG FLAG CRITERIA. ABOVE IS ALL PART OF A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM...WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS FLANKED BY DUAL LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS. UPSTREAM RIDGING
STEADILY BUILDING EAST...NOTED BY SLOWLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ABOVE ENSURES RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH
FORECAST CONCERNS TIED TO OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD
TRENDS (AND POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT).
ABOUT IDEAL SET-UP FOR A QUICK NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND AMBIENT VERY DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT DEW POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW MORE HOURS YET OF MIXING SUGGESTING EVEN LOWER
DEW POINTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. NAM-WRF BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES
SHOW TONIGHTS OVERHEAD AIR MASS WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA LAST
NIGHT...WHERE LOWS DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. EXPECT SOME
MODIFICATION...BUT STILL THINK WIDESPREAD READING IN THE MID 30S ARE
EASILY ATTAINABLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH ISOLATED
NEAR 30 DEGREE LOWS IN THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS. OF
COURSE...JUST A TOUCH WARMER NEAR THE BIG WATERS SHORELINES.
UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOW-OFF AND INITIAL STAGES OF HIGH LEVEL SATURATION
LIKELY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. DON`T THINK THESE WILL HAVE TOO MUCH AFFECT ON
OVERNIGHT READINGS...HOWEVER. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EXCLUDING GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING (FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES NOT IN SEASON YET NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE).
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WA
CONTINUES. BETTER SHOWER PRODUCING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/MID LEVEL
WIND CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR A LATE DAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. MODIFYING AIR MASS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL ABOVE
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DEW POINTS IN THE 30S...ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND WITH ABOVE
TEMPERATURES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FIVE WAVE PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN IN PLACE. FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM MOSTLY ZONAL TO A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS REMNANTS OF AN OLD BAA
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW (RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT`S TEXAS TORNADO
OUTBREAK) MOVES THROUGH. TROUGHING BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW...WHICH SETS THE
STAGE FOR GREAT LAKES WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WESTERN END
OF THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BOW NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEEN TRYING
TO PUSH ALONG THE IDEA OF A DRY SATURDAY FORECAST...BUT WONDERING IF
THAT PUSH IS GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO AN END. WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING EAST
TOWARD MICHIGAN. NO INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS LOW
LEVELS WILL BE DRY AND MOIST INFLOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTED AT THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT MAY END UP WITH A AC/AS DECK AND SOME LEFTOVER
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT ALSO DOESN`T
LOOK AS NICE SATURDAY AS EARLIER EXPECTED (AT THE VERY LEAST A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDY...AND FORECAST HIGHS WILL REFLECT THAT IDEA).
WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRIER AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS
ENERGY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE NEXT WEEK. EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LAKES...THOUGH
EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN. WILL PROBABLY NOT VACILLATE
TOO MUCH ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK...KEEPING THINGS
GENERALLY UNSETTLED AND WILL WAIT ON THE DETAILS (THOUGH POSSIBLE
THAT MONDAY MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TADS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
REMNANT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE...
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME EAST FRIDAY...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>036.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB
000
FXUS63 KAPX 161730
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
130 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WARRANTED TO AFTERNOON FORECAST. CLOUD
COVER FAILING TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS DRY AIR WINS
OUT. ELSEWHERE...CHANGES RELEGATED TO SLIGHT REAL-TIME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE CURVE. ISOLATED LOCATIONS APPROACHING
RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...ALTHOUGH NOT WITHOUT
AT LEAST A FEW FORECAST CHALLENGES. BAND OF ACCAS ALONG CORRIDOR OF
IMPRESSIVE H8-H7 LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. MUCH FURTHER NORTH...EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AROUND BACKSIDE OF QUEBEC CENTERED LOW
PRESSURE. DIURNAL TRENDS AND DOWNSLOPING STARTING TO TAKE ITS
TOLL...WITH NOTABLE THINNING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. STILL APPEARS
SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH ADDED
MOISTURE PERHAPS ENTICING A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATO-CU RESPONSE.
OTHERWISE...A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ONTO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS: SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT HAS EXITED
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO FALL JUST
SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA (ESSENTIALLY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY). WINDS AND RH VALUES...HOWEVER...EXPECTED
TO MAKE A RUN AT CRITICAL LEVELS. CORE OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (15
TO 25 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND BACKWARD
TRAJECTORY RAP GUIDANCE BOTH SUPPORT DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE
LOWER 30S (ISOLATED UPPER 20S) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING RH
READINGS WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE A ROGUE REG FLAG OBSERVATION OR TWO
MORE THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HURON NATION FOREST
AREA...THESE SHOULD BE MORE THAN EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...AND NOT
WORTHY OF ANY SPECIFIC HEADLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NARROW LINE OF MID CLOUD PRESSING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
HAS BEEN THINNING OUT CONSIDERABLY AND NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON SKY COVER THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH...STRATUS
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SHALLOW COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS WILL GET
INTO THE U.P. AND SUSPECT A GOOD PART WILL MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT HAVE NUDGED UP SKY COVER (PARTLY SUNNY) FOR EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING BUILDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
SIGNALING WARMER AND RAIN-FREE DAYS AHEAD.
ON THE SMALLER SCALE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH A SUBTLE FRONT CURVING BACK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO REGION. FRONT IS FORECAST SAG DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
RESULTING IN SUBTLE COOLING. SO TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND TRIM OFF A
FEW DEGREES...THAT SHOULD YIELD A DECENT RESULT. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONE
BATCH OF MID CLOUD AND SPOTTY ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
ACROSS ONTARIO BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BEYOND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC
DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AFTER HEATING/MIXING TAPS VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW 30S DEWPOINTS PROBABLY EASILY ATTAINABLE...WITH
EVEN LOW VALUES POSSIBLE IF WE MIX DEEP ENOUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS INLAND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DIPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME FROST A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS...
BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
QUIET AND DOWNRIGHT SPECTACULAR LATE SPRING WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP
AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
REALLY NO MAJOR CONCERNS FORESEEN THROUGH SUNDAY. WHAT HAPPENS
THEREAFTER IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION...BUT SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A
QUIET ONE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...FEATURING A TRANSITION FROM A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...TOWARD ONE OF AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF RATHER SHARP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO FORCE A RATHER PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA WITH TIME...HELPING
DRIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND INTO SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT A FEW SPECIFICS...JUST NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED BY ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES WHILE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD WITH TIME. ANY MAJOR PRECIP THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION THIS
TIME OF YEAR). JUST NOT BUYING INTO NAM/GFS DEPICTION OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FIRING THIS FAR NORTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ERRONEOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD
(THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM SO FAR THIS YEAR). IN ADDITION...THE BEST
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A
PRONOUNCED SUB-800MB DRY WEDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...REALLY LIKE OUR CALL TO GO DRY AND WILL MAINTAIN...WITH
PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE INCREASE IN SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST
NEAR THE LAKESHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN A
WEAK GRADIENT REGIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK COOL AND QUITE COMFORTABLE...AND GIVEN THE SETUP
WITH RESPECTABLE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAK
WIND FIELDS...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ONCE
AGAIN.
THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING GRADUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE OVERALL
SPECIFICS AREN`T KNOWN JUST YET...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT...ALL WHILE INCREASING
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WITH
A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...SHOULD THINGS SET UP AS CURRENT MODELED
(THEY RARELY DO)...COULD SEE THIS BEING A HEAVY RAIN SETUP SOMEWHERE
NEARBY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY WARM READINGS (WELL INTO THE 80S?) AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING RIDES NORTH INTO THE AREA...BUT ALSO THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN-COOLED 60S PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ANY
PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
WITH A NOTABLE TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH NO PRECIP
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 161351
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
951 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...ALTHOUGH NOT WITHOUT
AT LEAST A FEW FORECAST CHALLENGES. BAND OF ACCAS ALONG CORRIDOR OF
IMPRESSIVE H8-H7 LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. MUCH FURTHER NORTH...EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AROUND BACKSIDE OF QUEBEC CENTERED LOW
PRESSURE. DIURNAL TRENDS AND DOWNSLOPING STARTING TO TAKE ITS
TOLL...WITH NOTABLE THINNING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. STILL APPEARS
SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH ADDED
MOISTURE PERHAPS ENTICING A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATO-CU RESPONSE.
OTHERWISE...A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
ONTO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS: SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT HAS EXITED
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO FALL JUST
SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA (ESSENTIALLY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY). WINDS AND RH VALUES...HOWEVER...EXPECTED
TO MAKE A RUN AT CRITICAL LEVELS. CORE OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (15
TO 25 MPH) EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND BACKWARD
TRAJECTORY RAP GUIDANCE BOTH SUPPORT DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE
LOWER 30S (ISOLATED UPPER 20S) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING RH
READINGS WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE A ROGUE REG FLAG OBSERVATION OR TWO
MORE THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HURON NATION FOREST
AREA...THESE SHOULD BE MORE THAN EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...AND NOT
WORTHY OF ANY SPECIFIC HEADLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NARROW LINE OF MID CLOUD PRESSING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
HAS BEEN THINNING OUT CONSIDERABLY AND NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON SKY COVER THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH...STRATUS
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SHALLOW COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS WILL GET
INTO THE U.P. AND SUSPECT A GOOD PART WILL MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT HAVE NUDGED UP SKY COVER (PARTLY SUNNY) FOR EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING BUILDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
SIGNALING WARMER AND RAIN-FREE DAYS AHEAD.
ON THE SMALLER SCALE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH A SUBTLE FRONT CURVING BACK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO REGION. FRONT IS FORECAST SAG DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
RESULTING IN SUBTLE COOLING. SO TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND TRIM OFF A
FEW DEGREES...THAT SHOULD YIELD A DECENT RESULT. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONE
BATCH OF MID CLOUD AND SPOTTY ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
ACROSS ONTARIO BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BEYOND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC
DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AFTER HEATING/MIXING TAPS VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW 30S DEWPOINTS PROBABLY EASILY ATTAINABLE...WITH
EVEN LOW VALUES POSSIBLE IF WE MIX DEEP ENOUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS INLAND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DIPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME FROST A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS...
BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
QUIET AND DOWNRIGHT SPECTACULAR LATE SPRING WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP
AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
REALLY NO MAJOR CONCERNS FORESEEN THROUGH SUNDAY. WHAT HAPPENS
THEREAFTER IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION...BUT SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A
QUIET ONE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...FEATURING A TRANSITION FROM A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...TOWARD ONE OF AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF RATHER SHARP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO FORCE A RATHER PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA WITH TIME...HELPING
DRIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND INTO SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT A FEW SPECIFICS...JUST NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED BY ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES WHILE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD WITH TIME. ANY MAJOR PRECIP THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION THIS
TIME OF YEAR). JUST NOT BUYING INTO NAM/GFS DEPICTION OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FIRING THIS FAR NORTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ERRONEOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD
(THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM SO FAR THIS YEAR). IN ADDITION...THE BEST
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A
PRONOUNCED SUB-800MB DRY WEDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...REALLY LIKE OUR CALL TO GO DRY AND WILL MAINTAIN...WITH
PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE INCREASE IN SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST
NEAR THE LAKESHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN A
WEAK GRADIENT REGIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK COOL AND QUITE COMFORTABLE...AND GIVEN THE SETUP
WITH RESPECTABLE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAK
WIND FIELDS...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ONCE
AGAIN.
THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING GRADUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE OVERALL
SPECIFICS AREN`T KNOWN JUST YET...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT...ALL WHILE INCREASING
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WITH
A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...SHOULD THINGS SET UP AS CURRENT MODELED
(THEY RARELY DO)...COULD SEE THIS BEING A HEAVY RAIN SETUP SOMEWHERE
NEARBY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY WARM READINGS (WELL INTO THE 80S?) AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING RIDES NORTH INTO THE AREA...BUT ALSO THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN-COOLED 60S PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ANY
PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
WITH A NOTABLE TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTINESS AROUND 20
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT PLN AND APN. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 161018
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NARROW LINE OF MID CLOUD PRESSING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
HAS BEEN THINNING OUT CONSIDERABLY AND NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON SKY COVER THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH...STRATUS
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SHALLOW COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS WILL GET
INTO THE U.P. AND SUSPECT A GOOD PART WILL MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. BUT HAVE NUDGED UP SKY COVER (PARTLY SUNNY) FOR EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING BUILDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
SIGNALING WARMER AND RAIN-FREE DAYS AHEAD.
ON THE SMALLER SCALE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH A SUBTLE FRONT CURVING BACK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO REGION. FRONT IS FORECAST SAG DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
RESULTING IN SUBTLE COOLING. SO TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND TRIM OFF A
FEW DEGREES...THAT SHOULD YIELD A DECENT RESULT. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONE
BATCH OF MID CLOUD AND SPOTTY ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
ACROSS ONTARIO BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BEYOND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC
DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AFTER HEATING/MIXING TAPS VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW 30S DEWPOINTS PROBABLY EASILY ATTAINABLE...WITH
EVEN LOW VALUES POSSIBLE IF WE MIX DEEP ENOUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS INLAND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DIPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME FROST A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS...
BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
QUIET AND DOWNRIGHT SPECTACULAR LATE SPRING WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP
AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
REALLY NO MAJOR CONCERNS FORESEEN THROUGH SUNDAY. WHAT HAPPENS
THEREAFTER IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION...BUT SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A
QUIET ONE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...FEATURING A TRANSITION FROM A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...TOWARD ONE OF AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF RATHER SHARP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO FORCE A RATHER PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA WITH TIME...HELPING
DRIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND INTO SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT A FEW SPECIFICS...JUST NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED BY ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES WHILE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD WITH TIME. ANY MAJOR PRECIP THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION THIS
TIME OF YEAR). JUST NOT BUYING INTO NAM/GFS DEPICTION OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FIRING THIS FAR NORTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ERRONEOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD
(THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM SO FAR THIS YEAR). IN ADDITION...THE BEST
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A
PRONOUNCED SUB-800MB DRY WEDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...REALLY LIKE OUR CALL TO GO DRY AND WILL MAINTAIN...WITH
PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE INCREASE IN SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST
NEAR THE LAKESHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN A
WEAK GRADIENT REGIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK COOL AND QUITE COMFORTABLE...AND GIVEN THE SETUP
WITH RESPECTABLE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAK
WIND FIELDS...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ONCE
AGAIN.
THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING GRADUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE OVERALL
SPECIFICS AREN`T KNOWN JUST YET...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT...ALL WHILE INCREASING
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WITH
A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...SHOULD THINGS SET UP AS CURRENT MODELED
(THEY RARELY DO)...COULD SEE THIS BEING A HEAVY RAIN SETUP SOMEWHERE
NEARBY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY WARM READINGS (WELL INTO THE 80S?) AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING RIDES NORTH INTO THE AREA...BUT ALSO THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN-COOLED 60S PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ANY
PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
WITH A NOTABLE TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTINESS AROUND 20
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT PLN AND APN. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 160754
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
OVERVIEW: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS. PATTERN
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGING BUILDING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
SIGNALING WARMER AND RAIN-FREE DAYS AHEAD.
ON THE SMALLER SCALE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH A SUBTLE FRONT CURVING BACK ACROSS THE NRN LAKES/SRN
ONTARIO REGION. FRONT IS FORECAST SAG DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
RESULTING IN SUBTLE COOLING. SO TAKE YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND TRIM OFF A
FEW DEGREES...THAT SHOULD YIELD A DECENT RESULT. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONE
BATCH OF MID CLOUD AND SPOTTY ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH POCKET OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THAT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
ACROSS ONTARIO BEHIND THE FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN BEYOND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC
DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AFTER HEATING/MIXING TAPS VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW 30S DEWPOINTS PROBABLY EASILY ATTAINABLE...WITH
EVEN LOW VALUES POSSIBLE IF WE MIX DEEP ENOUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES ACROSS INLAND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DIPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME FROST A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS...
BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
QUIET AND DOWNRIGHT SPECTACULAR LATE SPRING WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP
AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
REALLY NO MAJOR CONCERNS FORESEEN THROUGH SUNDAY. WHAT HAPPENS
THEREAFTER IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION...BUT SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARD INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS A
QUIET ONE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...FEATURING A TRANSITION FROM A
RATHER FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...TOWARD ONE OF AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES BY SUNDAY...
DOWNSTREAM OF RATHER SHARP TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SAID PATTERN WILL ALSO FORCE A RATHER PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA WITH TIME...HELPING
DRIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND INTO SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT A FEW SPECIFICS...JUST NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED BY ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES WHILE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD WITH TIME. ANY MAJOR PRECIP THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED LOCATION THIS
TIME OF YEAR). JUST NOT BUYING INTO NAM/GFS DEPICTION OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION FIRING THIS FAR NORTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ERRONEOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD
(THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM SO FAR THIS YEAR). IN ADDITION...THE BEST
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A
PRONOUNCED SUB-800MB DRY WEDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS
SUCH...REALLY LIKE OUR CALL TO GO DRY AND WILL MAINTAIN...WITH
PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE INCREASE IN SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HIGHS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S ONCE AGAIN...COOLEST
NEAR THE LAKESHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN A
WEAK GRADIENT REGIME...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK COOL AND QUITE COMFORTABLE...AND GIVEN THE SETUP
WITH RESPECTABLE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAK
WIND FIELDS...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE USUAL COOL SPOTS ONCE
AGAIN.
THEREAFTER...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING GRADUAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE OVERALL
SPECIFICS AREN`T KNOWN JUST YET...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY WORKS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT...ALL WHILE INCREASING
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WITH
A WIDE OPEN GULF. IN FACT...SHOULD THINGS SET UP AS CURRENT MODELED
(THEY RARELY DO)...COULD SEE THIS BEING A HEAVY RAIN SETUP SOMEWHERE
NEARBY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY WARM READINGS (WELL INTO THE 80S?) AS
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING RIDES NORTH INTO THE AREA...BUT ALSO THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN-COOLED 60S PENDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ANY
PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT...BUT
WITH A NOTABLE TREND TOWARD MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR HOLD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT W/SW WINDS WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE N/NW AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS...ALTHOUGH
GUSTS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...BA
000
FXUS63 KAPX 160557
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO
DELIVERING CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
WAIT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
QUIET WEATHER CURRENTLY. PATCH OF MID CLOUD STETCHED ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN...COURTESY OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL
ADVANCE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...AND SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SKC REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUD ARE DRIFTING OVERHEAD...AS TEMPS HOLD MAINLY IN THE
LOW 70S. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AS TEMPS FALL THRU THE 60S AND INTO THE 50S...ON THEIR
WAY DOWN TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD...
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...AND ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS OVER SRN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS THEN DEPICT A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL DROP
SEWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-12Z. THIS (CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM) FEATURE HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN MN. BY THE TIME TROUGH
REACHES NRN MI...EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-14Z.
TROUGH WILL PASS SE OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIMITED CU
DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF UPSTREAM CU THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER RH/S...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW/.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
PROGRESSIVE FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. OVERALL...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE HUDSON BAY RIDGE AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW...WEAK GRADIENT AND EVENTUALLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC
DWPTS WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. MAY SEE ANOTHER MARGINAL
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15
MPH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING PLAINS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...INTERACTING
WITH STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. GIVEN
RECENT LARGE MODEL ERRORS IN THE HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL GREATLY
DISCOUNT BOTH THE GFS/NAM QPF AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MUCH
DRIER GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MODERATING HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS EACH DAY...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF FROST IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BREAKDOWN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THRU THIS PERIOD
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GRADUALLY WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES TOWARD
THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS PATTERN WOULD PLACE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY. FORECAST WILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORECAST ENDS UP DRIER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR HOLD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT W/SW WINDS WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO
THE N/NW AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME NRN
AND ERN AREAS...WHERE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING. AFTER A WEAK TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE NW AND
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
ERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT
22Z THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN ELEVATE (VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY).
MIN RH/S MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER -- FALLING TO AROUND 25 PCT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
FIRE WEATHER...BS
MARINE...BS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 160217
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO
DELIVERING CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
WAIT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING...AND
WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S...AND SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SKC REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUD ARE DRIFTING OVERHEAD...AS TEMPS HOLD MAINLY IN THE
LOW 70S. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AS TEMPS FALL THRU THE 60S AND INTO THE 50S...ON THEIR
WAY DOWN TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD...
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...AND ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS OVER SRN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS THEN DEPICT A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL DROP
SEWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-12Z. THIS (CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM) FEATURE HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN MN. BY THE TIME TROUGH
REACHES NRN MI...EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-14Z.
TROUGH WILL PASS SE OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIMITED CU
DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF UPSTREAM CU THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER RH/S...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW/.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
PROGRESSIVE FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. OVERALL...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE HUDSON BAY RIDGE AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW...WEAK GRADIENT AND EVENTUALLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC
DWPTS WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. MAY SEE ANOTHER MARGINAL
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15
MPH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING PLAINS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...INTERACTING
WITH STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. GIVEN
RECENT LARGE MODEL ERRORS IN THE HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL GREATLY
DISCOUNT BOTH THE GFS/NAM QPF AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MUCH
DRIER GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MODERATING HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS EACH DAY...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF FROST IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BREAKDOWN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THRU THIS PERIOD
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GRADUALLY WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES TOWARD
THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS PATTERN WOULD PLACE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY. FORECAST WILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORECAST ENDS UP DRIER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO BELOW 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NW
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THRU
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME NRN
AND ERN AREAS...WHERE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING. AFTER A WEAK TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE NW AND
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
ERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT
22Z THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN ELEVATE (VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY).
MIN RH/S MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER -- FALLING TO AROUND 25 PCT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
FIRE WEATHER...BS
MARINE...BS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 152326
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
726 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO
DELIVERING CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
WAIT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SKC REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUD ARE DRIFTING OVERHEAD...AS TEMPS HOLD MAINLY IN THE
LOW 70S. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AS TEMPS FALL THRU THE 60S AND INTO THE 50S...ON THEIR
WAY DOWN TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD...
NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...AND ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS OVER SRN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS THEN DEPICT A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL DROP
SEWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-12Z. THIS (CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM) FEATURE HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN MN. BY THE TIME TROUGH
REACHES NRN MI...EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-14Z.
TROUGH WILL PASS SE OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIMITED CU
DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF UPSTREAM CU THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER RH/S...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW/.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
PROGRESSIVE FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. OVERALL...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE HUDSON BAY RIDGE AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW...WEAK GRADIENT AND EVENTUALLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC
DWPTS WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. MAY SEE ANOTHER MARGINAL
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15
MPH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING PLAINS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...INTERACTING
WITH STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. GIVEN
RECENT LARGE MODEL ERRORS IN THE HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL GREATLY
DISCOUNT BOTH THE GFS/NAM QPF AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MUCH
DRIER GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MODERATING HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS EACH DAY...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF FROST IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BREAKDOWN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THRU THIS PERIOD
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GRADUALLY WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES TOWARD
THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS PATTERN WOULD PLACE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY. FORECAST WILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORECAST ENDS UP DRIER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO BELOW 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NW
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THRU
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME NRN
AND ERN AREAS...WHERE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING. AFTER A WEAK TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE NW AND
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
ERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT
22Z THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN ELEVATE (VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY).
MIN RH/S MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER -- FALLING TO AROUND 25 PCT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
FIRE WEATHER...BS
MARINE...BS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 152000
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO
DELIVERING CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
WAIT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...AND ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS OVER SRN
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS THEN DEPICT A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL DROP
SEWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-12Z. THIS (CURRENTLY
UPSTREAM) FEATURE HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN MN. BY THE TIME TROUGH
REACHES NRN MI...EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-14Z.
TROUGH WILL PASS SE OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIMITED CU
DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF UPSTREAM CU THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER RH/S...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW/.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
PROGRESSIVE FOUR WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH
LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. OVERALL...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE HUDSON BAY RIDGE AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW...WEAK GRADIENT AND EVENTAULLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC
DWPTS WITH RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. MAY SEE ANOTHER MARGINAL
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15
MPH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING PLAINS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...INTERACTING
WITH STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES. GIVEN
RECENT LARGE MODEL ERRORS IN THE HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL GREATLY
DISCOUNT BOTH THE GFS/NAM QPF AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MUCH
DRIER GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. MODERATING HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS EACH DAY...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF FROST IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BREAKDOWN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLOW TO DEPART ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THRU THIS PERIOD
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY GRADUALLY WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES TOWARD
THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS PATTERN WOULD PLACE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY. FORECAST WILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF FORECAST ENDS UP DRIER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
VFR WX WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z THURSDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THRU THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N/NW BREEZES ANTICIPATED THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME NRN
AND ERN AREAS...WHERE NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING. AFTER A WEAK TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE NW AND
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
ERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT
22Z THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY...FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN ELEVATE (VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY).
MIN RH/S MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER -- FALLING TO AROUND 25 PCT.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...BS
FIRE WEATHER...BS
MARINE...BS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 151732
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
132 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
A COLD FRONT HAS QUIETLY WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME NICE WEATHER RIGHT ON THE
WEEKEND...ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST GENERALLY PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED. PATCH
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN UPPER IS DIMINISHING AND MOVING EWD...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE ACROSS FORECAST AREA /ONLY A FEW
ROGUE CU HAVE FORMED/. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH REST OF
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF WI INTO NW
LOWER SOUTH OF CHARLEVIOX NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER...WITH TEMPS
AND RH STILL HOLDING JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. OSC CURRENT OB
SHOWS TEMP 73...RH 31%...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 24 MPH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
POST FRONTAL CAA IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. CAA
COMBINED WITH FULL MID MAY SUNSHINE...IS PROMOTING VERY EFFICIENT
VERTICAL MIXING AND GUSTY NW WINDS. IN MANY AREAS WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. COMPARISON OF 12Z APX SOUNDING WITH
UPSTREAM 12Z GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONTINUED GUSTINESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS CAA REGIME CONTINUES.
SOME ST/SC HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN UPPER AND TIP OF THE
MITT. THOUGH UPSTREAM GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS GENERAL DRYING TODAY
/WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT/ MODELS DO SUPPORT LINGERING
SC INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ERN UPPER CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE CLOUD TRENDS.
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON...AS REFERENCED EARLIER...
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS...TEMPS AND
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO CRITERIA
E OF US-127 AND SOUTH M-32.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THUS FAR. LOT OF CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE TO
START THE DAY SAVE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT MCD AND PERHAPS OTHER
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE YET TO COME UP. COLD FRONT ABOUT TO
ADVANCE OFF THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
MID LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY PLUME ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. ONE LAST GASP OF MID LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE/
FORCING DID FIRE OFF ONE MORE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
JUST GRAZED NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 3 AM. BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS NOW OFF SHORE HEADING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
MEANWHILE...PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WITH
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ABOUT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. BUT STRONG DRYING IS ALREADY
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CWA BACK INTO WISCONSIN WITH MOST OF THE
CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...ANTICIPATE A DRY
FROPA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BIGGER CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG DRYING/GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND RESULTING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. PER LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
POTENTIALLY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
FOR MOST...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SO...PLAN NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
TONIGHT...QUIET. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER STRETCH OF QUITE NICE AND DRY WEATHER
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND PUSH INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST ISSUES SUNDAY
ONWARD FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
IS A QUIET ONE...FEATURING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES REGION...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL THE
WHILE...PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE ELONGATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING
FROM HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY TO SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATER
SUNDAY...PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR WARM BUT DRY SPRINGTIME
CONDITIONS. THE WHOLE PATTERN LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND BUT ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH EMERGES ON
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.
AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING FIRMLY IN CONTROL. PATTERN
RECOGNITION SCREAMS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HUDSON BAY RIDGING IN
FULL CONTROL...AND A SUBSEQUENT ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. OF ALL 3 DRY
DAYS...THURSDAY STILL LOOKING TO FEATURE THE MOST ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AS THE REMAINING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS BOOST MIXING
AND KEEP WINDS UP...THOUGH CONDITIONS DON`T LOOKS TO BE QUITE AS BAD
AS TODAY (WEDNESDAY). WILL STILL BE DRY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASICALLY A NIL GRADIENT OVERHEAD. TEMPS
EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM NICELY THROUGH THE 60S AND LOW 70S...
COOLER NEAR THE SHORES OF COURSE WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
NIGHTS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WITH A QUICK DIURNAL
DIP WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRAPES ITSELF OVERHEAD (A FEW SPOTS WITH
PATCHY FROST?).
LOOKING AHEAD...STILL NOT OVERLY THRILLED BY PRECIP CHANCES EVEN
INTO SUNDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY AS LOWER LEVEL
RIDGING LIKELY HANGS TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. HOWEVER...BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH A WARM FRONT PROBABLY LIFTING NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE NEARBY
(PLACEMENT STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE AT
LEAST A ROUND OR TWO OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...DO NOT TRUST GOING
MOISTURE PROGS WHATSOEVER WITH A RECENT HUGE POSITIVE DEW POINT BIAS
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE NAM/GFS RUNS...WHICH IS IN TURN FEEDING BACK
INTO NEAR DAILY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODEL WORLD EACH AFTERNOON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A MORE FOCUSED WINDOW
OF PRECIP SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH...BUT HONESTLY NOT VERY THRILLED AT
THIS JUNCTURE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION OF PRECIP.
INSTEAD...WILL STEER THE FORECAST TOWARD SMALL CHANCE POPS WHILE
ALSO MAINTAINING WARM CONDITIONS EACH DAY...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD END UP DRY IF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
VFR WX WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z THURSDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THRU THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT N/NW BREEZES ANTICIPATED THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY...BASED ON LATEST OBS. ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ELSEWHERE...WHERE GUSTY NW WINDS
PERSIST. MARINERS CAN EXPECT FINE BOATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BS
000
FXUS63 KAPX 151419
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1019 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
A COLD FRONT HAS QUIETLY WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME NICE WEATHER RIGHT ON THE
WEEKEND...ALL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING NORTHERN MICHIGAN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY...WHILE ALSO DELIVERING
CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHTS. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
POST FRONTAL CAA IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. CAA
COMBINED WITH FULL MID MAY SUNSHINE...IS PROMOTING VERY EFFICIENT
VERTICAL MIXING AND GUSTY NW WINDS. IN MANY AREAS WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. COMPARISON OF 12Z APX SOUNDING WITH
UPSTREAM 12Z GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS CONTINUED GUSTINESS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS CAA REGIME CONTINUES.
SOME ST/SC HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN UPPER AND TIP OF THE
MITT. THOUGH UPSTREAM GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS GENERAL DRYING TODAY
/WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT/ MODELS DO SUPPORT LINGERING
SC INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ERN UPPER CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE CLOUD TRENDS.
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON...AS REFERENCED EARLIER...
WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS...TEMPS AND
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO CRITERIA
E OF US-127 AND SOUTH M-32.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THUS FAR. LOT OF CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE TO
START THE DAY SAVE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT MCD AND PERHAPS OTHER
LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS HAVE YET TO COME UP. COLD FRONT ABOUT TO
ADVANCE OFF THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
MID LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY PLUME ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. ONE LAST GASP OF MID LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE/
FORCING DID FIRE OFF ONE MORE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
JUST GRAZED NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 3 AM. BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS NOW OFF SHORE HEADING ACROSS LAKE HURON.
MEANWHILE...PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WITH
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ABOUT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. BUT STRONG DRYING IS ALREADY
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CWA BACK INTO WISCONSIN WITH MOST OF THE
CWA UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...ANTICIPATE A DRY
FROPA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BIGGER CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG DRYING/GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND RESULTING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. PER LOW LEVEL
MIXED LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
POTENTIALLY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
FOR MOST...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SO...PLAN NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
TONIGHT...QUIET. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER STRETCH OF QUITE NICE AND DRY WEATHER
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND PUSH INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST ISSUES SUNDAY
ONWARD FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
IS A QUIET ONE...FEATURING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES REGION...DRIVEN MAINLY
BY UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL THE
WHILE...PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE ELONGATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING
FROM HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY TO SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATER
SUNDAY...PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR WARM BUT DRY SPRINGTIME
CONDITIONS. THE WHOLE PATTERN LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND BUT ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH EMERGES ON
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.
AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING FIRMLY IN CONTROL. PATTERN
RECOGNITION SCREAMS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HUDSON BAY RIDGING IN
FULL CONTROL...AND A SUBSEQUENT ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. OF ALL 3 DRY
DAYS...THURSDAY STILL LOOKING TO FEATURE THE MOST ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AS THE REMAINING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS BOOST MIXING
AND KEEP WINDS UP...THOUGH CONDITIONS DON`T LOOKS TO BE QUITE AS BAD
AS TODAY (WEDNESDAY). WILL STILL BE DRY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASICALLY A NIL GRADIENT OVERHEAD. TEMPS
EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM NICELY THROUGH THE 60S AND LOW 70S...
COOLER NEAR THE SHORES OF COURSE WITH DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
NIGHTS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLE WITH A QUICK DIURNAL
DIP WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRAPES ITSELF OVERHEAD (A FEW SPOTS WITH
PATCHY FROST?).
LOOKING AHEAD...STILL NOT OVERLY THRILLED BY PRECIP CHANCES EVEN
INTO SUNDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A GOOD CHUNK OF MONDAY AS LOWER LEVEL
RIDGING LIKELY HANGS TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. HOWEVER...BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH A WARM FRONT PROBABLY LIFTING NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE NEARBY
(PLACEMENT STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE AT
LEAST A ROUND OR TWO OF PRECIP. WITH THAT SAID...DO NOT TRUST GOING
MOISTURE PROGS WHATSOEVER WITH A RECENT HUGE POSITIVE DEW POINT BIAS
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE NAM/GFS RUNS...WHICH IS IN TURN FEEDING BACK
INTO NEAR DAILY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODEL WORLD EACH AFTERNOON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT A MORE FOCUSED WINDOW
OF PRECIP SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH...BUT HONESTLY NOT VERY THRILLED AT
THIS JUNCTURE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION OF PRECIP.
INSTEAD...WILL STEER THE FORECAST TOWARD SMALL CHANCE POPS WHILE
ALSO MAINTAINING WARM CONDITIONS EACH DAY...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD END UP DRY IF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
DRY COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL
PASS THROUGH THE APN TERMINAL SITE BY 13Z. SOME LIGHT FOG OCCURRING
AT APN CURRENTLY...BUT WILL GO AWAY AFTER FROPA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT PARTICULARLY AT
PLN AND APN...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. BUT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY/EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNDER ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...DL
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA
| 
