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000
FXUS63 KAPX 312012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
JUST A FEW MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLAKES IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY...READINGS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST APX
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE REGION THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO
SLINK AWAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF A
COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -12 C RANGE...WHICH IS NORMALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY WITH THE BIG LAKES
STILL ABOUT 10C). HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
(MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLING OFF TO A BONE DRY 10 TO 20 PERCENT BY
LATER THIS EVENING) UNDER A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS. SO WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES IS
EXPECTED. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS ALWAYS DUE TO A COUPLE OF
CONFLICTING FACTORS...THE COLD AIRMASS VERSUS CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
AT THIS POINT WILL LOWER FORECAST MINS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT
REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE AROUND 20
INLAND SHELTERED AREAS...TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS OUR TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATION`S
MIDSECTION SETTING UP STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND DRIVING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

WHILE A STORM SYSTEM RAMPS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND...RISING SURFACE PRESSURES/HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRETTY QUIET SYNOPTICALLY...
STILL SOME RESIDUAL LAKE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH EARLY SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING WITH A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
OFF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON...WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THAT.  CHILLY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE)...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND SOME TEENS ACROSS TYPICALLY
COLDER INTERIOR LOCALES.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL UPSTREAM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL NUISANCE CLOUD COVER THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD
DETRACT FROM A NICE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO
THE 40S.  NO ISSUES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS
CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES.  WILL DRY THE FORECAST OUT FOR MIDWEEK.
SHOULD BE A MILD START TO THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
50S FOR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AFFECTS FROM STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO LOW END VFR THEN SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 312012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
JUST A FEW MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLAKES IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY...READINGS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST APX
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE REGION THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO
SLINK AWAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF A
COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -12 C RANGE...WHICH IS NORMALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY WITH THE BIG LAKES
STILL ABOUT 10C). HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
(MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLING OFF TO A BONE DRY 10 TO 20 PERCENT BY
LATER THIS EVENING) UNDER A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS. SO WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES IS
EXPECTED. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS ALWAYS DUE TO A COUPLE OF
CONFLICTING FACTORS...THE COLD AIRMASS VERSUS CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
AT THIS POINT WILL LOWER FORECAST MINS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT
REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE AROUND 20
INLAND SHELTERED AREAS...TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS OUR TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATION`S
MIDSECTION SETTING UP STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND DRIVING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

WHILE A STORM SYSTEM RAMPS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND...RISING SURFACE PRESSURES/HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRETTY QUIET SYNOPTICALLY...
STILL SOME RESIDUAL LAKE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH EARLY SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING WITH A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
OFF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON...WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THAT.  CHILLY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE)...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND SOME TEENS ACROSS TYPICALLY
COLDER INTERIOR LOCALES.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL UPSTREAM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL NUISANCE CLOUD COVER THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD
DETRACT FROM A NICE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO
THE 40S.  NO ISSUES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS
CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES.  WILL DRY THE FORECAST OUT FOR MIDWEEK.
SHOULD BE A MILD START TO THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
50S FOR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AFFECTS FROM STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO LOW END VFR THEN SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 311758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHER THAN A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING PER LATEST APX RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDY
AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED PLUNGE OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDING SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS HOUR WHILE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. NOT A PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1012 MB OR
SO). BUT STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALREADY EDGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED A STOUT P-GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH WINDS TURNING QUICKLY NORTH AND RAMPING UP
INTO THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS PUSHING 40 KNOTS
JUST UPSTREAM.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION...PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NOW RUNS FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST 925 MB 0C LINE.

TODAY...POTENT UPPER WAVE PASSES RAPIDLY DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BUT HAVE TO
GET THROUGH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG QG-UPWARD FORCING/
CATEGORICAL POPS BEFORE TAPERING OFF PRECIP CHANCES N-S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER IN
THIS EVENT WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH...SAVE FOR PARTS OF
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS.

P-TYPE...ANTICIPATE A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THIS
MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR SLAMS INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIXY NEAR THE COASTS. SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

HEADLINES...INHERITED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL NRN LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW WITH CORE OF 50 KNOT H8
WINDS PASSING DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...ANTICIPATE ONLY AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH RATHER WET SNOW THAT SHOULD/T POSE TO
MUCH OF A BLSN THREAT...DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES EITHER ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN ORDER.

TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID DRYING WILL LARGELY CLEAR
THINGS OUT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES A GOOD BET ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON
SHORELINES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

..UP/DOWN PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE/AGRESSIVE...WITH LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING AND AN
AGITATED PACIFIC REGIME SUPPORTING SUCH. SPECIFICS ARE
ELUDING...HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A FAST EVOLVING PATTERN AND TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT CREATING PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. GUT FEELING IS
THE OVERALL FEATURES WILL LOOK QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN MID RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS. WE SHALL SEE.

FORECAST DETAILS: DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS
WEEKEND AS CURRENT TROUGHING GETS THE BOOT EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES /H8 NEAR -10C/
OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING EXCELLENT NEAR SURFACE
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...WITH SHARP H8 INVERSION AND NOTED DRY TONGUE EXTENDING
EVEN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. HARD NOT TO ENVISION AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW STRATO-CU AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN FAVORED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AREAS TO START THE DAY...DRIVEN SIMPLY BY MAGNITUDE
OF DELTA T/S. DRYING WINS OUT THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SKIES TRENDING
MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY LATER IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER TO START NEXT WORK WEEK GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND OUT AHEAD OF ELONGATED
TROUGHING. NARROW...BUT WELL ORGANIZED...GULF MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY HELP THE SHOWER CAUSE LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...SUPPORTING INHERITED LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE-DIVE HEADING
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
INTERACTION /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF STRONG UPPER JET CORES ROTATING
OVER AND OFF THE PACIFIC. PATTERN APPEARS RIPE FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WITH EVEN HINTS OF SUCH IN VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO FOLLOW A GUIDANCE BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW...LETTING FUTURE TRENDS TAKES US WERE THEY MAY IN
THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...VERY CHILLY START...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
SATURDAY...GIVES WAY TO MODERATION...WITH HIGHS TRENDING TO MUCH
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AFFECTS FROM STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO LOW END VFR THEN SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
GUSTIER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW GALE
FORCE. WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-019>021-025-
     026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...TBA
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...TBA





000
FXUS63 KAPX 311617
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1217 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHER THAN A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING PER LATEST APX RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDY
AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED PLUNGE OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDING SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS HOUR WHILE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. NOT A PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1012 MB OR
SO). BUT STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALREADY EDGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED A STOUT P-GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH WINDS TURNING QUICKLY NORTH AND RAMPING UP
INTO THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS PUSHING 40 KNOTS
JUST UPSTREAM.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION...PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NOW RUNS FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST 925 MB 0C LINE.

TODAY...POTENT UPPER WAVE PASSES RAPIDLY DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BUT HAVE TO
GET THROUGH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG QG-UPWARD FORCING/
CATEGORICAL POPS BEFORE TAPERING OFF PRECIP CHANCES N-S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER IN
THIS EVENT WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH...SAVE FOR PARTS OF
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS.

P-TYPE...ANTICIPATE A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THIS
MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR SLAMS INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIXY NEAR THE COASTS. SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

HEADLINES...INHERITED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL NRN LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW WITH CORE OF 50 KNOT H8
WINDS PASSING DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...ANTICIPATE ONLY AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH RATHER WET SNOW THAT SHOULD/T POSE TO
MUCH OF A BLSN THREAT...DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES EITHER ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN ORDER.

TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID DRYING WILL LARGELY CLEAR
THINGS OUT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES A GOOD BET ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON
SHORELINES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

..UP/DOWN PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE/AGRESSIVE...WITH LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING AND AN
AGITATED PACIFIC REGIME SUPPORTING SUCH. SPECIFICS ARE
ELUDING...HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A FAST EVOLVING PATTERN AND TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT CREATING PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. GUT FEELING IS
THE OVERALL FEATURES WILL LOOK QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN MID RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS. WE SHALL SEE.

FORECAST DETAILS: DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS
WEEKEND AS CURRENT TROUGHING GETS THE BOOT EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES /H8 NEAR -10C/
OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING EXCELLENT NEAR SURFACE
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...WITH SHARP H8 INVERSION AND NOTED DRY TONGUE EXTENDING
EVEN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. HARD NOT TO ENVISION AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW STRATO-CU AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN FAVORED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AREAS TO START THE DAY...DRIVEN SIMPLY BY MAGNITUDE
OF DELTA T/S. DRYING WINS OUT THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SKIES TRENDING
MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY LATER IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER TO START NEXT WORK WEEK GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND OUT AHEAD OF ELONGATED
TROUGHING. NARROW...BUT WELL ORGANIZED...GULF MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY HELP THE SHOWER CAUSE LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...SUPPORTING INHERITED LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE-DIVE HEADING
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
INTERACTION /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF STRONG UPPER JET CORES ROTATING
OVER AND OFF THE PACIFIC. PATTERN APPEARS RIPE FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WITH EVEN HINTS OF SUCH IN VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO FOLLOW A GUIDANCE BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW...LETTING FUTURE TRENDS TAKES US WERE THEY MAY IN
THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...VERY CHILLY START...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
SATURDAY...GIVES WAY TO MODERATION...WITH HIGHS TRENDING TO MUCH
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS
COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...TURNING ONGOING PRECIP TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO VFR AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS...TURNING VERY GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT BUT
PERSIST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
GUSTIER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW GALE
FORCE. WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-019>021-025-
     026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...TBA
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA





000
FXUS63 KAPX 311017
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHER THAN A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED PLUNGE OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDING SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS HOUR WHILE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. NOT A PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1012 MB OR
SO). BUT STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALREADY EDGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED A STOUT P-GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH WINDS TURNING QUICKLY NORTH AND RAMPING UP
INTO THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS PUSHING 40 KNOTS
JUST UPSTREAM.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION...PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NOW RUNS FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST 925 MB 0C LINE.

TODAY...POTENT UPPER WAVE PASSES RAPIDLY DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE...STRONG SUBSIDENC/DRYING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BUT HAVE TO
GET THROUGH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG QG-UPWARD FORCING/
CATEGORICAL POPS BEFORE TAPERING OFF PRECIP CHANCES N-S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER IN
THIS EVENT WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH...SAVE FOR PARTS OF
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS.

P-TYPE...ANTICIPATE A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THIS
MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR SLAMS INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIXY NEAR THE COASTS. SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

HEADLINES...INHERITED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL NRN LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW WITH CORE OF 50 KNOT H8
WINDS PASSSING DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...ANTICIPATE ONLY AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH RATHER WET SNOW THAT SHOULD/T POSE TO
MUCH OF A BLSN THREAT...DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES EITHER ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN ORDER.

TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID DRYING WILL LARGELY CLEAR
THINGS OUT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES A GOOD BET ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON
SHORELINES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

..UP/DOWN PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE/AGRESSIVE...WITH LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING AND AN
AGITATED PACIFIC REGIME SUPPORTING SUCH. SPECIFICS ARE
ELUDING...HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A FAST EVOLVING PATTERN AND TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT CREATING PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. GUT FEELING IS
THE OVERALL FEATURES WILL LOOK QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN MID RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS. WE SHALL SEE.

FORECAST DETAILS: DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS
WEEKEND AS CURRENT TROUGHING GETS THE BOOT EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES /H8 NEAR -10C/
OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING EXCELLENT NEAR SURFACE
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...WITH SHARP H8 INVERSION AND NOTED DRY TONGUE EXTENDING
EVEN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. HARD NOT TO ENVISION AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW STRATO-CU AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN FAVORED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AREAS TO START THE DAY...DRIVEN SIMPLY BY MAGNITUDE
OF DELTA T/S. DRYING WINS OUT THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SKIES TRENDING
MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY LATER IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER TO START NEXT WORK WEEK GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND OUT AHEAD OF ELONGATED
TROUGHING. NARROW...BUT WELL ORGANIZED...GULF MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY HELP THE SHOWER CAUSE LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...SUPPORTING INHERITED LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE-DIVE HEADING
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
INTERACTION /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF STRONG UPPER JET CORES ROTATING
OVER AND OFF THE PACIFIC. PATTERN APPEARS RIPE FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WITH EVEN HINTS OF SUCH IN VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO FOLLOW A GUIDANCE BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW...LETTING FUTURE TRENDS TAKES US WERE THEY MAY IN
THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...VERY CHILLY START...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
SATURDAY...GIVES WAY TO MODERATION...WITH HIGHS TRENDING TO MUCH
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS
COLDER AIR SLAMS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...TURNING ONGOING PRECIP TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO VFR AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS...TURNING VERY GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT BUT
PERSIST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
GUSTIER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW GALE
FORCE. WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016-019>021-025-
     026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...TBA
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA





000
FXUS63 KAPX 310752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN EARLY TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OTHER THAN A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES...DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DIVING SSE THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED PLUNGE OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ATTENDING SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS HOUR WHILE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. NOT A PARTICULARLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (1012 MB OR
SO). BUT STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALREADY EDGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED A STOUT P-GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH WINDS TURNING QUICKLY NORTH AND RAMPING UP
INTO THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS PUSHING 40 KNOTS
JUST UPSTREAM.

MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD PRECIP SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION...PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW NOW RUNS FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST 925 MB 0C LINE.

TODAY...POTENT UPPER WAVE PASSES RAPIDLY DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH UPSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE...STRONG SUBSIDENC/DRYING TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BUT HAVE TO
GET THROUGH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STRONG QG-UPWARD FORCING/
CATEGORICAL POPS BEFORE TAPERING OFF PRECIP CHANCES N-S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER IN
THIS EVENT WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NORTH...SAVE FOR PARTS OF
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS.

P-TYPE...ANTICIPATE A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THIS
MORNING AS VERY COLD AIR SLAMS INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIXY NEAR THE COASTS. SNOW WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK.

HEADLINES...INHERITED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL NRN LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW WITH CORE OF 50 KNOT H8
WINDS PASSSING DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WINDS
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST BUT DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...ANTICIPATE ONLY AROUND AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH RATHER WET SNOW THAT SHOULD/T POSE TO
MUCH OF A BLSN THREAT...DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES EITHER ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN ORDER.

TONIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RAPID DRYING WILL LARGELY CLEAR
THINGS OUT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES A GOOD BET ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON
SHORELINES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

..UP/DOWN PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE/AGRESSIVE...WITH LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING AND AN
AGITATED PACIFIC REGIME SUPPORTING SUCH. SPECIFICS ARE
ELUDING...HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A FAST EVOLVING PATTERN AND TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT CREATING PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. GUT FEELING IS
THE OVERALL FEATURES WILL LOOK QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN MID RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS. WE SHALL SEE.

FORECAST DETAILS: DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS
WEEKEND AS CURRENT TROUGHING GETS THE BOOT EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES /H8 NEAR -10C/
OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING EXCELLENT NEAR SURFACE
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW...WITH SHARP H8 INVERSION AND NOTED DRY TONGUE EXTENDING
EVEN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. HARD NOT TO ENVISION AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW STRATO-CU AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES IN FAVORED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AREAS TO START THE DAY...DRIVEN SIMPLY BY MAGNITUDE
OF DELTA T/S. DRYING WINS OUT THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SKIES TRENDING
MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY LATER IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER TO START NEXT WORK WEEK GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND OUT AHEAD OF ELONGATED
TROUGHING. NARROW...BUT WELL ORGANIZED...GULF MOISTURE PLUME ALONG
PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD ONLY HELP THE SHOWER CAUSE LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...SUPPORTING INHERITED LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE SHOWER
POTENTIAL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE-DIVE HEADING
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
INTERACTION /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF STRONG UPPER JET CORES ROTATING
OVER AND OFF THE PACIFIC. PATTERN APPEARS RIPE FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...WITH EVEN HINTS OF SUCH IN VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO FOLLOW A GUIDANCE BLEND
APPROACH FOR NOW...LETTING FUTURE TRENDS TAKES US WERE THEY MAY IN
THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...VERY CHILLY START...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
SATURDAY...GIVES WAY TO MODERATION...WITH HIGHS TRENDING TO MUCH
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
GUSTIER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW GALE
FORCE. WINDS FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...TBA
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...TBA





000
FXUS63 KAPX 310155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/STRONG COLD STILL POISED TO SWEEP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND BETWEEN 09Z-12Z OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS STILL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER
BEFORE SUNRISE.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST. CORE OF STRONGEST 925MB WINDS OF 45-55KTS MOVES
ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AND GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SOME 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-019>021-
     025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MQT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 310110
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
910 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/STRONG COLD STILL POISED TO SWEEP INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FROPA LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z OVER EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND BETWEEN 09Z-12Z OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS STILL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER
BEFORE SUNRISE.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST. CORE OF STRONGEST 925MB WINDS OF 45-55KTS MOVES
ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AND GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WOULD EXPECT SOME 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016-019>021-
     025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MQT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 302347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VBSYS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN STRONGER RAIN/SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BUT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MQT
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MQT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 302322
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
722 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...MQT
MARINE...MQT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 302148
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&


.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...MQT
MARINE...MQT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 302148
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&


.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&


.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJL
SHORT TERM...MQT
LONG TERM...MQT
AVIATION...MQT
MARINE...MQT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 302030
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES SO...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER IN BY 00Z SAT AFTER IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWA FRI
MORNING. WHILE THE SFC LOW COMPONENT WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY
1010MB...THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SFC PRESSURE CHANGE
DUE TO INCOMING 1035MB HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG N-NNE WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MANISTEE TO LEELANAU COUNTIES FROM 10Z FRI TO
00Z SAT. INLAND...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A CORE OF 35-45KT
925-850MB WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD. THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
GUST CRITERIA INLAND...BUT IF MIXING IS ESPECIALLY STRONG AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE CWA TODAY AS WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THOSE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE E THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PUSH
IN FROM THE NW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO ERN UPPER MI AROUND 06Z FRI THEN NWRN LOWER MI SHORELINE
AROUND 09Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE OF THE CWA BY 15Z FRI. THE
COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C/ SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. SNOW WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE OVER THE ERN U.P. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE TRANSITION
OVER NRN LOWER MI STARTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORKER TO THE
LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
ERN UPPER MI AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI...WHERE AROUND 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WHILE THE GROUND IS WARM...SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL FALL
RELATIVELY HEAVY AT TIMES FOR A SHORT PERIOD. DID NOT GO WITH ANY
WINTER HEADLINES AS SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...MAINLY IN N-NNE WIND UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT BELTS.
HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING OF PRECIP FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 155 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH
A STRONG HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH PRESSURE...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KAPX 301947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL POSITION THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...LEAVING STRONG AND COLD NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH MIXING TO 800MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C...DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 AT 00Z SATURDAY
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INCREASES SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERS THE INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
THESE DETRIMENTAL FEATURES TO LAKE EFFECT WILL TAKE HOLD FAIRLY
QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AND WILL SHOW A VERY FAST DROP OFF TO
THE LAKE EFFECT POPS OVER THE FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...THE
SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CLOUD DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHRINK. WHILE THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST INTO MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY BUT STILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IS IN STORE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH
THE MAV GENERALLY PERFORMING WELL IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR LOWS AND HAVE VALUES IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES. SOME LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD
WARM SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA (AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY) AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

THAT SHORTWAVE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW SPRINKLES AFFECTING THE WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT PRECIPITATION WISE DUE
TO THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH LAKE
WINNIPEG AND TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MUCH
OF MONDAY TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE AREA.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING ALOFT AND PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ON 850-700MB FLOW DIRECTION...WHICH WILL CONTROL THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE FOCUSING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z/12Z GEM IS
SHOWING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850-700MB AND PULLING THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND
HAVE A FEW LIKELY VALUES RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTHEN PART OF THE CWA.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AREA WILL BE DRY
SLOTTED FOR A PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND AND INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. WILL
SHOW SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AN KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR LARGER
UPPER TROUGH (12Z GFS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 155 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 301756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 155 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
RAIN AND CIG REDUCTIONS BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH THE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. BRING KAPN AND KTVC
DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM A FAVORABLY DIRECTION FOR
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THESE SITES COULD SEE
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS. KEEP KMBL AND KPLN AT MVFR DUE TO
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AT THOSE SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
MORNING AT ALL BUT KAPN AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KAPX 301020
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
620 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGELY VFR CIGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING INTO PARTS
OF THE NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND MAINLY IMPACTING THE PELLSTON TERMINAL SITE WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. STRONG SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND BRING A QUICK DETERIORATION IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD
NRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THEN...ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL SWING
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...CHANGING PRECIP OVER
TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND FURTHER LOWERING CONDITIONS TO LOW
MVFR OR IFR. WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 301020
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
620 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGELY VFR CIGS OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
COMING IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SPREADING INTO PARTS
OF THE NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND MAINLY IMPACTING THE PELLSTON TERMINAL SITE WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. STRONG SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND BRING A QUICK DETERIORATION IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD
NRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THEN...ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL SWING
DOWN THROUGH THE REGION USHERING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...CHANGING PRECIP OVER
TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND FURTHER LOWERING CONDITIONS TO LOW
MVFR OR IFR. WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY RAMP
UP RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 300833
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
433 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OVERVIEW: LARGER SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM THIS
MORNING WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE PIECE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE (APPARENT
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA) IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST. STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY (AND OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF COLD
AIR) DROPPING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...ALREADY SEEING SOME MODEST FORCING ALONG THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT CLOSER TO HOME...BROAD SFC
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME DRYING AND BREAK IN
THE PRECIP FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS
WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. STRONG SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR OVER CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE FAR NRN LAKES REGION BY EVENING BEFORE CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SPIN
UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT HELPS DRAG THAT COLDER
AIR INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US WIND AND COLDER TEMPS AND THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS WINTER SEASON...JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

AS FOR TODAY...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SRN CANADA WHERE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
AND THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALREADY GETTING SQUEEZED. THIS REGION OF
MODEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IMPACTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL (SPOTTY
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY THIS
MORNING).

TONIGHT...REALLY GETS INTERESTING. POTENT SHORT WAVE AND PLUNGE OF
SUBSTANTIALLY COLD AIR DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SPINNING UP A COMPACT SFC LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
ATTENDING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULLSEYE OF DEEP LAYER QG-UPWARD
ASCENT DROPS DOWN INTO THE STATE WITH THE WAVE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. BUT AFTER
FROPA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN BY MORNING. BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR SLAMMING DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION WILL TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
BY LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING (PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS...SEEM MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANGE MAY
SIMPLY COME TO LATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATION...ALTHOUGH IF THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH AND/OR
IT SNOWS HARD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THUNDER CHANCES...OF COURSE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TEMP PROFILES FOLD OVER RATHER QUICKLY AS POCKET OF COLD
AIR COMES IN ALOFT...RESULTING IN SOME STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IT MAY BE A STRETCH...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
THUNDER OVERNIGHT (AND INTO FRIDAY) AND HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

..."SCARY" COLD HALLOWEEN BUT THEN SOME MODERATION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF SNOW AND WIND HALLOWEEN
MORNING...AND A VERY COLD TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. GALES EXPECTED ON
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT BRIEFLY...WITH STRONG JET ENERGY CURRENTLY HELPING
DIG TROUGHING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN IS LEADING TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIC NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR ALREADY QUITE STRONG VORT
ENERGY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NUNAVUT TO DIG NEARLY DUE SOUTHWARD THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS EXACT SETUP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR TREMENDOUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WITH THIS TROUGH ENDING UP WELL TO
OUR SOUTH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THAT OVERALL
SETUP WILL FORCE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR
THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC JET ENERGY FORCING THE WESTERN RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR A TIME INTO VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT TOO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (TIS THE TIME OF YEAR) AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY EVENTUALLY LIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME TOWARD MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH A VERY WAVY PATTERN EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTING A CLASSIC UP AND DOWN FALL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

LET`S BREAK IT DOWN:

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: ALL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HERE. APPROACH
OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHARPENING TROUGH WILL SHOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 15Z FRIDAY AT THE LATEST...WITH QUITE
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR RUSHING IN ALOFT IN ITS WAKE (H8 TEMPS DIVING
TOWARD -10C OR COLDER THROUGH THE DAY). SUCH SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
SAID TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INCITE A QUICK DEFORMATION FORCING
RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUING TO
STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION BISECTING THE CWA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...EASING SOUTH
WITH TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTH
AFTER 18Z. THE REAL KICKER WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THICKNESSES RAPIDLY COLLAPSE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AND STRONG LIFT COMPENSATES FOR AN INITIALLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER.
EVEN SEE SOME HINTS OF THE STRONGEST LIFT BISECTING THE DEEPENING
DGZ...IMPLYING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE
PRECIP RATES/FLAKE SIZE AS WE ACTIVATE DENDRITES. ADD INTO THAT A
LIKELY LAKE COMPONENT GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/FORCING AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT COULD BE A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES FALLING BENEATH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP CORE...
PARTICULARLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE
BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COMES TOGETHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING VERY QUICKLY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE THE WIND COMPONENT WITH SAID COLD FRONT AS
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WORKS IN TANDEM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE CORE OF 40-50 KNOTS IN THE
925-850MB LAYER. FORECAST RAOBS FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HINTED AT
SURFACE GUSTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVERTISED. THROW IN THAT WIND COMPONENT
WITH SNOW AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OVERCOMING INITIALLY WARMER ROAD TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THIS HARD IN THE HWO/WEB GRAPHICS AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST
SNOW OF THE SEASON AND THESE USUALLY CAUSE QUITE A FEW ISSUES.

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHRINKS CONSIDERABLY. AT THE SAME
TIME...CONTINUED COOLER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY GROW THE LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T VALUES PUSHING 20C. LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL HURT THE CAUSE BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS HUGGING BOTH THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON COASTS...
PERHAPS PUSHING A BIT MORE INTO NORTHEAST LOWER AS THE FLOW THERE IS
BACKED A BIT MORE NORTHEASTERLY. COVERAGE OF THOSE SHOULD SHRINK
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AIDS IN SHOVING BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT THAT
SAME REGIME SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST HELP BUILD RENEWED CLOUD COVER
BACK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: DEEPEST UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST AS ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD.
RESIDUAL LAKE INSTABILITY AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION ARGUES FOR PESKY STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG DRYING AND
WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR QUICK CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS/DRY AIR FAVORING WHAT COULD BE SOME
QUITE CHILLY TEMPS. WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE TEENS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SPOTS
WILL BE STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CRANKS
UP ALOFT...BUT WITH NO PRECIP THREAT GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-750MB
LAYER. STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MAY DELIVER A COUPLE
SPRINKLES BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DOUBTFUL AS THE BEST ASCENT LIES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LAKES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THOUGH TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS A BIT IN QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY
AT THE MOMENT AS OUR NEXT BOUT OF UPPER TROUGHING WORKS OVERHEAD BUT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES DOWN LOW. TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVERNIGHT AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THAT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SLIDE INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO SOLID MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR THURSDAY EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES AND DEEP MIXING ENSUES OVER THE WATERS. FULLY
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THAT LOOKS VERY BRIEF. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE...
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 300345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SINCE LAST NIGHT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING LEADING
TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP BY OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH 1000-500 MB RH
DROPPING FROM NEARLY 80 PERCENT AT THE HOUR OF THIS WRITING TO ABOUT
55 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT (LAKE/850 MB
DELTA T`S OF ABOUT +13 OR +14). THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM DUE
IN ON THURSDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THIS COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS LATER TONIGHT. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
THE MELTING LAYER SHRINKS TO ABOUT 1200 FEET AGL OR SO. AM A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
CLOUDS LOOKING RATHER CELLULAR. SO IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR AND COMBINE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...LOWS COULD EASILY FALL
OFF INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE CUT
FORECAST LOWS/MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...RAW LOOKING HALLOWEEN ON TAP WITH WIND AND RAIN/SNOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME...40+MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINE AREAS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...PART OF A FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN.  LARGER SCALE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY.  SOME FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE "ANA" IS MOVING THROUGH (OVER MONTANA/WYOMING)...WITH
ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CENTRAL CANADA.  ANOTHER STRONG LARGER SCALE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 991MB SURFACE LOW WRAPPED
UP EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CANADA.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO CARVE OUT A STRONG TROUGH HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND COLD TEMPERATURES) TO MICHIGAN
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PROVIDES A REPRIEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL BE WATCHING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RESULT WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING
HALLOWEEN SYSTEM THE OBVIOUS MAJOR CONCERN...PRECIPITATION
(EVOLUTION AND TYPE)/WINDS AND TRICK-OR-TREATING CONDITIONS
(PROBABLY NOT THE BEST).  INITIALLY WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WILL BE A RELATIVE "CALM BEFORE THE
STORM" ON THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES.  SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF "ANA" EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE COMING OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  BUT ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL LAKE PROCESSES (WHICH
MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LAKE INDUCED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER/NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO START THE DAY).
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS/QG SUPPORT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL START TO PULL IN COLDER AIR.  SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN UPPER...WHERE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS..AND CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH A MENTIONING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION MAY START TO TRANSITION OVER TOWARD SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.  SPEAKING OF RAMPING UP WINDS...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH/WEST FACING SHORELINE AREAS.  WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED INITIALLY...POSSIBLY OVER 40MPH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS CORE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ROTATING SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH IT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT
EXPECTED WITHIN NORTH/NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKES
MICHIGAN/HURON...WITH HIGHEST QPF FRIDAY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER AS A RESULT.  PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR
PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION OVER TO MORE SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS STILL RAIN OR MIXY CLOSER TO
THE LAKES)...AND THINK AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION INLAND IS
REASONABLE (AN INCH OR LESS EASTERN UPPER WHERE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END SOONER).  GUSTY NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY...EVEN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED MOST AREAS...40-50MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHWEST LOWER
SHORELINE WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING. SO NOT A PRETTY LOOKING TRICK-OR-TREAT PERIOD EXPECTED.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE CONVECTION WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON/MICHIGAN.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): WHILE STORMINESS IMPACTS THE
EAST COAST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE EASTERN STORM AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPANNING
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BUT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS
WILL TREND QUIETER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  WILL
START WEDNESDAY DRY BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA OVERNIGHT AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THAT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SLIDE INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO SOLID MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR THURSDAY EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT THE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND
THAT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UPWARD ESPECIALLY WITH A DECREASE IN
OVER WATER STABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT.  GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
ZONES...SO CURRENT GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES WILL REMAIN INTACT (AND
WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 292300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SINCE LAST NIGHT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING LEADING
TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP BY OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH 1000-500 MB RH
DROPPING FROM NEARLY 80 PERCENT AT THE HOUR OF THIS WRITING TO ABOUT
55 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT (LAKE/850 MB
DELTA T`S OF ABOUT +13 OR +14). THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM DUE
IN ON THURSDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THIS COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS LATER TONIGHT. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
THE MELTING LAYER SHRINKS TO ABOUT 1200 FEET AGL OR SO. AM A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
CLOUDS LOOKING RATHER CELLULAR. SO IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR AND COMBINE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...LOWS COULD EASILY FALL
OFF INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE CUT
FORECAST LOWS/MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...RAW LOOKING HALLOWEEN ON TAP WITH WIND AND RAIN/SNOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME...40+MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINE AREAS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...PART OF A FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN.  LARGER SCALE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY.  SOME FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE "ANA" IS MOVING THROUGH (OVER MONTANA/WYOMING)...WITH
ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CENTRAL CANADA.  ANOTHER STRONG LARGER SCALE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 991MB SURFACE LOW WRAPPED
UP EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CANADA.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO CARVE OUT A STRONG TROUGH HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND COLD TEMPERATURES) TO MICHIGAN
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PROVIDES A REPRIEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL BE WATCHING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RESULT WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING
HALLOWEEN SYSTEM THE OBVIOUS MAJOR CONCERN...PRECIPITATION
(EVOLUTION AND TYPE)/WINDS AND TRICK-OR-TREATING CONDITIONS
(PROBABLY NOT THE BEST).  INITIALLY WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WILL BE A RELATIVE "CALM BEFORE THE
STORM" ON THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES.  SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF "ANA" EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE COMING OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  BUT ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL LAKE PROCESSES (WHICH
MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LAKE INDUCED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER/NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO START THE DAY).
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS/QG SUPPORT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL START TO PULL IN COLDER AIR.  SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN UPPER...WHERE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS..AND CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH A MENTIONING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION MAY START TO TRANSITION OVER TOWARD SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.  SPEAKING OF RAMPING UP WINDS...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH/WEST FACING SHORELINE AREAS.  WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED INITIALLY...POSSIBLY OVER 40MPH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS CORE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ROTATING SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH IT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT
EXPECTED WITHIN NORTH/NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKES
MICHIGAN/HURON...WITH HIGHEST QPF FRIDAY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER AS A RESULT.  PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR
PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION OVER TO MORE SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS STILL RAIN OR MIXY CLOSER TO
THE LAKES)...AND THINK AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION INLAND IS
REASONABLE (AN INCH OR LESS EASTERN UPPER WHERE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END SOONER).  GUSTY NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY...EVEN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED MOST AREAS...40-50MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHWEST LOWER
SHORELINE WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING. SO NOT A PRETTY LOOKING TRICK-OR-TREAT PERIOD EXPECTED.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE CONVECTION WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON/MICHIGAN.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): WHILE STORMINESS IMPACTS THE
EAST COAST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE EASTERN STORM AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPANNING
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BUT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS
WILL TREND QUIETER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  WILL
START WEDNESDAY DRY BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...
IMPACTING MAINLY TVC AND MBL...WITH MAINLY LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SLIDE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
SOLID MVFR...WITH IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT THE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND
THAT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UPWARD ESPECIALLY WITH A DECREASE IN
OVER WATER STABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT.  GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
ZONES...SO CURRENT GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES WILL REMAIN INTACT (AND
WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 292010
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SINCE LAST NIGHT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING LEADING
TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP BY OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH 1000-500 MB RH
DROPPING FROM NEARLY 80 PERCENT AT THE HOUR OF THIS WRITING TO ABOUT
55 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVER LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT (LAKE/850 MB
DELTA T`S OF ABOUT +13 OR +14). THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM DUE
IN ON THURSDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. THIS COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED LOCALS LATER TONIGHT. A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
THE MELTING LAYER SHRINKS TO ABOUT 1200 FEET AGL OR SO. AM A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
CLOUDS LOOKING RATHER CELLULAR. SO IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO PARTIALLY
CLEAR AND COMBINE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...LOWS COULD EASILY FALL
OFF INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE CUT
FORECAST LOWS/MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...RAW LOOKING HALLOWEEN ON TAP WITH WIND AND RAIN/SNOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  STRONG NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME...40+MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG
EXPOSED SHORELINE AREAS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...PART OF A FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN.  LARGER SCALE TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TODAY.  SOME FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THROUGH WHICH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER PACIFIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE "ANA" IS MOVING THROUGH (OVER MONTANA/WYOMING)...WITH
ANOTHER BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES OF
CENTRAL CANADA.  ANOTHER STRONG LARGER SCALE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 991MB SURFACE LOW WRAPPED
UP EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS.  HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CANADA.

THE EARLIER MENTIONED PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL COME
TOGETHER TO CARVE OUT A STRONG TROUGH HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND COLD TEMPERATURES) TO MICHIGAN
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING PROVIDES A REPRIEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL BE WATCHING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RESULT WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LAKES/
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING
HALLOWEEN SYSTEM THE OBVIOUS MAJOR CONCERN...PRECIPITATION
(EVOLUTION AND TYPE)/WINDS AND TRICK-OR-TREATING CONDITIONS
(PROBABLY NOT THE BEST).  INITIALLY WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WILL BE A RELATIVE "CALM BEFORE THE
STORM" ON THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES.  SHORT WAVE REMNANTS OF "ANA" EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE COMING OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  BUT ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND
TROUGHING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM RESIDUAL LAKE PROCESSES (WHICH
MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LAKE INDUCED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER/NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY TO START THE DAY).
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS/QG SUPPORT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AN INCREASING
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL START TO PULL IN COLDER AIR.  SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN UPPER...WHERE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS..AND CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
WORTH A MENTIONING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION MAY START TO TRANSITION OVER TOWARD SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN.  SPEAKING OF RAMPING UP WINDS...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH/WEST FACING SHORELINE AREAS.  WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED INITIALLY...POSSIBLY OVER 40MPH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS CORE OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ROTATING SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH IT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT
EXPECTED WITHIN NORTH/NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKES
MICHIGAN/HURON...WITH HIGHEST QPF FRIDAY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER AS A RESULT.  PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON WITH A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR
PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION OVER TO MORE SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS STILL RAIN OR MIXY CLOSER TO
THE LAKES)...AND THINK AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION INLAND IS
REASONABLE (AN INCH OR LESS EASTERN UPPER WHERE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO END SOONER).  GUSTY NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY...EVEN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH
EXPECTED MOST AREAS...40-50MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHWEST LOWER
SHORELINE WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING. SO NOT A PRETTY LOOKING TRICK-OR-TREAT PERIOD EXPECTED.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE CONVECTION WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE HURON/MICHIGAN.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): WHILE STORMINESS IMPACTS THE
EAST COAST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE EASTERN STORM AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGING SPANNING
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
UPPER LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  BUT DOES LOOK LIKE THINGS
WILL TREND QUIETER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  WILL
START WEDNESDAY DRY BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN MOISTURE IS STRIPPING OUT AT THE MOMENT AS
STORM SYSTEM RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL MARGINAL LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING POSSIBLY LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS. DRIER AIR THEN LOOKS TO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING YIELDING A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY AT TVC AND MBL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT THE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND
THAT WILL DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UPWARD ESPECIALLY WITH A DECREASE IN
OVER WATER STABILITY AND A FAVORABLE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT.  GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
ZONES...SO CURRENT GALE WARNINGS/WATCHES WILL REMAIN INTACT (AND
WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 291752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING ACTIVITY DESPITE CONTINUED
DECENT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING
CLOSED UPPER LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ALREADY
WELL EAST OF THE REGION OF COURSE. BUT TRAILING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SHARPLY NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH PULLING DOWN CORE OF COLDEST
AIR. SMALLER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALSO NOTED SWINGING EASTWARD OUT
OF GREEN BAY AND WE/VE ALREADY SEEN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION). MEANWHILE...
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS NOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH FORCING HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING TURNING WINDS NW AND PULLING COLDEST AIR INTO THE
REGION...H8 TEMPS FALLING OFF TO -3C TO -5C ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SUN LATER TODAY.
PRECIP-WISE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF QG-UPWARD FORCING. BUT THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO TAKE OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  AS UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE EASES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS START
TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MINOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.
QUESTION IS...P-TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
KEEP FREEZING LEVELS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET MSL SUGGESTING JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT IN EASTERN
UPPER...DOWN AROUND 1600 FEET OR SO SUGGESTS SNOW OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...LOOK OUT BELOW! HERE COMES THE COLD AIR...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF
SNOW MANY AREAS HALLOWEEN MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: WELL...IT HAD TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
THIS FALL...AND LOVE IT OR HATE IT...THAT TIME IS NOW. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
A RATHER POTENT 150 KNOT MID LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
AND HELPING AMPLIFY THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE MEAN TROUGHING OF COURSE RESIDES FROM HUDSON BAY
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TRANSITING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID TROUGH.
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RAPIDLY HELP BUILD RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...
EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE DOOR FOR RAPID SOUTHWARD RE-AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONGER JET ENERGY
HELPS PUNT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING INLAND...DISLODGING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD
EAST...LIKELY TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

LET`S LOOK AT THE DETAILS:

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: HERE COMES THE FUN WEATHER! LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
QUICKLY APPROACHING WILL BE QUITE THE SHARP UPPER WAVE (ALREADY
CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKES. BACKING FLOW INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN AN
AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALL WHILE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPED ALONG BY QUITE THE
STRONG SHOT OF UPWARD FORCING/DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FROM A PRECIP TYPE STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS
LIQUID WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FREEZING LEVELS UP ABOVE
2KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-13Z
STRONGLY ARGUES FOR MANY SPOTS EXPERIENCING A QUICK TURNOVER AS
FREEZING LEVELS CRASH BELOW 1KFT (NEAR THE SURFACE EASTERN UPPER AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THE KEY OF COURSE WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS LEFT BY THIS POINT...BUT REALLY GETTING THE FEELING THAT
AT LEAST A BURST OF SNOW IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR A
TIME THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO A GOOD
BET WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -10C OR COLDER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. STRONG DRYING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DESPITE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN SUCH A SHOT OF DYNAMICS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS...SOME
ACCUMULATION CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT ANY HEAVIEST BURSTS
COULD OF COURSE LAY DOWN A QUICK COATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. BASED
ON TRENDS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING...
HAVE TO WONDER IF WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE HIGH
SPOTS AND WILL START THE TREND OF BEEFING UP ACCUMULATION...IN LINE
WITH WPC EXPECTATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...DESPITE WARMER
GROUND TEMPS. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME PRETTY HEFTY GUSTS AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR. ALL IN ALL...THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY EVENT TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES PROVIDED
SNOW PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...AS GIVEN HEAVY RATES...A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS ISN`T TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: DRYING OUT BUT STAYING CHILLY AS DEEPER
UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AS WE`RE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WHILE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
SAID LOW LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH PLENTY COLD LOW LEVELS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE COAST?)
CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THAT THREAT
ENDING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOME LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC AND WE
LOSE THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE PESKY AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND LIMITED MIXING MANDATES TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SETTING UP A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: BETTER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
GET INTO GEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE END RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH OF COURSE A PUSH OF THICKER CLOUDS AS SAID WARM
ADVECTION CRANKS UP AS WELL. THE THERMAL REGIME APPEARS IT WILL
MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL TEMPS MAY WELL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE PENDING THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN MOISTURE IS STRIPPING OUT AT THE MOMENT AS
STORM SYSTEM RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL MARGINAL LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING POSSIBLY LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS. DRIER AIR THEN LOOKS TO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING YIELDING A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THROUGH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY AT TVC AND MBL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...ABATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
RAPIDLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. DEEP MIXING OF QUITE STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY COLD AIR WORKING OVER THE WATERS SUGGESTS GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PERHAPS ON LAKE HURON
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 291442
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1042 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING ACTIVITY DESPITE CONTINUED
DECENT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING
CLOSED UPPER LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ALREADY
WELL EAST OF THE REGION OF COURSE. BUT TRAILING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SHARPLY NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH PULLING DOWN CORE OF COLDEST
AIR. SMALLER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALSO NOTED SWINGING EASTWARD OUT
OF GREEN BAY AND WE/VE ALREADY SEEN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION). MEANWHILE...
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS NOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH FORCING HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING TURNING WINDS NW AND PULLING COLDEST AIR INTO THE
REGION...H8 TEMPS FALLING OFF TO -3C TO -5C ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SUN LATER TODAY.
PRECIP-WISE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF QG-UPWARD FORCING. BUT THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO TAKE OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  AS UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE EASES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS START
TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MINOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.
QUESTION IS...P-TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
KEEP FREEZING LEVELS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET MSL SUGGESTING JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT IN EASTERN
UPPER...DOWN AROUND 1600 FEET OR SO SUGGESTS SNOW OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...LOOK OUT BELOW! HERE COMES THE COLD AIR...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF
SNOW MANY AREAS HALLOWEEN MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: WELL...IT HAD TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
THIS FALL...AND LOVE IT OR HATE IT...THAT TIME IS NOW. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
A RATHER POTENT 150 KNOT MID LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
AND HELPING AMPLIFY THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE MEAN TROUGHING OF COURSE RESIDES FROM HUDSON BAY
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TRANSITING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID TROUGH.
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RAPIDLY HELP BUILD RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...
EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE DOOR FOR RAPID SOUTHWARD RE-AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONGER JET ENERGY
HELPS PUNT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING INLAND...DISLODGING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD
EAST...LIKELY TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

LET`S LOOK AT THE DETAILS:

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: HERE COMES THE FUN WEATHER! LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
QUICKLY APPROACHING WILL BE QUITE THE SHARP UPPER WAVE (ALREADY
CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKES. BACKING FLOW INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN AN
AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALL WHILE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPED ALONG BY QUITE THE
STRONG SHOT OF UPWARD FORCING/DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FROM A PRECIP TYPE STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS
LIQUID WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FREEZING LEVELS UP ABOVE
2KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-13Z
STRONGLY ARGUES FOR MANY SPOTS EXPERIENCING A QUICK TURNOVER AS
FREEZING LEVELS CRASH BELOW 1KFT (NEAR THE SURFACE EASTERN UPPER AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THE KEY OF COURSE WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS LEFT BY THIS POINT...BUT REALLY GETTING THE FEELING THAT
AT LEAST A BURST OF SNOW IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR A
TIME THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO A GOOD
BET WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -10C OR COLDER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. STRONG DRYING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DESPITE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN SUCH A SHOT OF DYNAMICS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS...SOME
ACCUMULATION CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT ANY HEAVIEST BURSTS
COULD OF COURSE LAY DOWN A QUICK COATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. BASED
ON TRENDS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING...
HAVE TO WONDER IF WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE HIGH
SPOTS AND WILL START THE TREND OF BEEFING UP ACCUMULATION...IN LINE
WITH WPC EXPECTATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...DESPITE WARMER
GROUND TEMPS. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME PRETTY HEFTY GUSTS AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR. ALL IN ALL...THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY EVENT TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES PROVIDED
SNOW PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...AS GIVEN HEAVY RATES...A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS ISN`T TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: DRYING OUT BUT STAYING CHILLY AS DEEPER
UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AS WE`RE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WHILE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
SAID LOW LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH PLENTY COLD LOW LEVELS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE COAST?)
CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THAT THREAT
ENDING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOME LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC AND WE
LOSE THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE PESKY AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND LIMITED MIXING MANDATES TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SETTING UP A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: BETTER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
GET INTO GEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE END RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH OF COURSE A PUSH OF THICKER CLOUDS AS SAID WARM
ADVECTION CRANKS UP AS WELL. THE THERMAL REGIME APPEARS IT WILL
MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL TEMPS MAY WELL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE PENDING THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
TODAY...AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL SITES ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL TEND TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE.

RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH FOR TONIGHT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CIGS
TO VFR FOR MOST SPOTS. WINDS ALSO DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...ABATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
RAPIDLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. DEEP MIXING OF QUITE STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY COLD AIR WORKING OVER THE WATERS SUGGESTS GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PERHAPS ON LAKE HURON
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE









000
FXUS63 KAPX 291019
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
619 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING
CLOSED UPPER LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ALREADY
WELL EAST OF THE REGION OF COURSE. BUT TRAILING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SHARPLY NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH PULLING DOWN CORE OF COLDEST
AIR. SMALLER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALSO NOTED SWINGING EASTWARD OUT
OF GREEN BAY AND WE/VE ALREADY SEEN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION). MEANWHILE...
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS NOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH FORCING HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING TURNING WINDS NW AND PULLING COLDEST AIR INTO THE
REGION...H8 TEMPS FALLING OFF TO -3C TO -5C ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SUN LATER TODAY.
PRECIP-WISE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF QG-UPWARD FORCING. BUT THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO TAKE OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  AS UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE EASES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS START
TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MINOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.
QUESTION IS...P-TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
KEEP FREEZING LEVELS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET MSL SUGGESTING JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT IN EASTERN
UPPER...DOWN AROUND 1600 FEET OR SO SUGGESTS SNOW OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...LOOK OUT BELOW! HERE COMES THE COLD AIR...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF
SNOW MANY AREAS HALLOWEEN MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: WELL...IT HAD TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
THIS FALL...AND LOVE IT OR HATE IT...THAT TIME IS NOW. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
A RATHER POTENT 150 KNOT MID LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
AND HELPING AMPLIFY THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE MEAN TROUGHING OF COURSE RESIDES FROM HUDSON BAY
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TRANSITING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID TROUGH.
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RAPIDLY HELP BUILD RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...
EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE DOOR FOR RAPID SOUTHWARD RE-AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONGER JET ENERGY
HELPS PUNT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING INLAND...DISLODGING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD
EAST...LIKELY TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

LET`S LOOK AT THE DETAILS:

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: HERE COMES THE FUN WEATHER! LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
QUICKLY APPROACHING WILL BE QUITE THE SHARP UPPER WAVE (ALREADY
CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKES. BACKING FLOW INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN AN
AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALL WHILE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPED ALONG BY QUITE THE
STRONG SHOT OF UPWARD FORCING/DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FROM A PRECIP TYPE STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS
LIQUID WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FREEZING LEVELS UP ABOVE
2KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-13Z
STRONGLY ARGUES FOR MANY SPOTS EXPERIENCING A QUICK TURNOVER AS
FREEZING LEVELS CRASH BELOW 1KFT (NEAR THE SURFACE EASTERN UPPER AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THE KEY OF COURSE WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS LEFT BY THIS POINT...BUT REALLY GETTING THE FEELING THAT
AT LEAST A BURST OF SNOW IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR A
TIME THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO A GOOD
BET WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -10C OR COLDER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. STRONG DRYING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DESPITE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN SUCH A SHOT OF DYNAMICS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS...SOME
ACCUMULATION CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT ANY HEAVIEST BURSTS
COULD OF COURSE LAY DOWN A QUICK COATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. BASED
ON TRENDS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING...
HAVE TO WONDER IF WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE HIGH
SPOTS AND WILL START THE TREND OF BEEFING UP ACCUMULATION...IN LINE
WITH WPC EXPECTATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...DESPITE WARMER
GROUND TEMPS. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME PRETTY HEFTY GUSTS AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR. ALL IN ALL...THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY EVENT TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES PROVIDED
SNOW PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...AS GIVEN HEAVY RATES...A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS ISN`T TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: DRYING OUT BUT STAYING CHILLY AS DEEPER
UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AS WE`RE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WHILE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
SAID LOW LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH PLENTY COLD LOW LEVELS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE COAST?)
CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THAT THREAT
ENDING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOME LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC AND WE
LOSE THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE PESKY AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND LIMITED MIXING MANDATES TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SETTING UP A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: BETTER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
GET INTO GEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE END RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH OF COURSE A PUSH OF THICKER CLOUDS AS SAID WARM
ADVECTION CRANKS UP AS WELL. THE THERMAL REGIME APPEARS IT WILL
MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL TEMPS MAY WELL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE PENDING THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
TODAY...AND PREVAILING MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL SITES ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL TEND TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE
SHOWERS...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE.

RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH FOR TONIGHT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CIGS
TO VFR FOR MOST SPOTS. WINDS ALSO DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...ABATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
RAPIDLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. DEEP MIXING OF QUITE STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY COLD AIR WORKING OVER THE WATERS SUGGESTS GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PERHAPS ON LAKE HURON
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346-
     349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 290829
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
429 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING
CLOSED UPPER LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ALREADY
WELL EAST OF THE REGION OF COURSE. BUT TRAILING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SHARPLY NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH PULLING DOWN CORE OF COLDEST
AIR. SMALLER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALSO NOTED SWINGING EASTWARD OUT
OF GREEN BAY AND WE/VE ALREADY SEEN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION). MEANWHILE...
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS NOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH FORCING HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING TURNING WINDS NW AND PULLING COLDEST AIR INTO THE
REGION...H8 TEMPS FALLING OFF TO -3C TO -5C ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SUN LATER TODAY.
PRECIP-WISE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF QG-UPWARD FORCING. BUT THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO TAKE OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  AS UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE EASES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS START
TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MINOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.
QUESTION IS...P-TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
KEEP FREEZING LEVELS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET MSL SUGGESTING JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT IN EASTERN
UPPER...DOWN AROUND 1600 FEET OR SO SUGGESTS SNOW OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...LOOK OUT BELOW! HERE COMES THE COLD AIR...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF
SNOW MANY AREAS HALLOWEEN MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: WELL...IT HAD TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
THIS FALL...AND LOVE IT OR HATE IT...THAT TIME IS NOW. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
A RATHER POTENT 150 KNOT MID LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
AND HELPING AMPLIFY THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE MEAN TROUGHING OF COURSE RESIDES FROM HUDSON BAY
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TRANSITING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID TROUGH.
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RAPIDLY HELP BUILD RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...
EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE DOOR FOR RAPID SOUTHWARD RE-AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONGER JET ENERGY
HELPS PUNT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING INLAND...DISLODGING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD
EAST...LIKELY TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

LET`S LOOK AT THE DETAILS:

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: HERE COMES THE FUN WEATHER! LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
QUICKLY APPROACHING WILL BE QUITE THE SHARP UPPER WAVE (ALREADY
CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKES. BACKING FLOW INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN AN
AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALL WHILE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPED ALONG BY QUITE THE
STRONG SHOT OF UPWARD FORCING/DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FROM A PRECIP TYPE STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS
LIQUID WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FREEZING LEVELS UP ABOVE
2KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-13Z
STRONGLY ARGUES FOR MANY SPOTS EXPERIENCING A QUICK TURNOVER AS
FREEZING LEVELS CRASH BELOW 1KFT (NEAR THE SURFACE EASTERN UPPER AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THE KEY OF COURSE WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS LEFT BY THIS POINT...BUT REALLY GETTING THE FEELING THAT
AT LEAST A BURST OF SNOW IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR A
TIME THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO A GOOD
BET WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -10C OR COLDER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. STRONG DRYING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DESPITE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN SUCH A SHOT OF DYNAMICS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS...SOME
ACCUMULATION CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT ANY HEAVIEST BURSTS
COULD OF COURSE LAY DOWN A QUICK COATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. BASED
ON TRENDS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING...
HAVE TO WONDER IF WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE HIGH
SPOTS AND WILL START THE TREND OF BEEFING UP ACCUMULATION...IN LINE
WITH WPC EXPECTATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...DESPITE WARMER
GROUND TEMPS. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME PRETTY HEFTY GUSTS AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR. ALL IN ALL...THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY EVENT TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES PROVIDED
SNOW PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...AS GIVEN HEAVY RATES...A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS ISN`T TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: DRYING OUT BUT STAYING CHILLY AS DEEPER
UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AS WE`RE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WHILE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
SAID LOW LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH PLENTY COLD LOW LEVELS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE COAST?)
CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THAT THREAT
ENDING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOME LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC AND WE
LOSE THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE PESKY AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND LIMITED MIXING MANDATES TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SETTING UP A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: BETTER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
GET INTO GEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE END RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH OF COURSE A PUSH OF THICKER CLOUDS AS SAID WARM
ADVECTION CRANKS UP AS WELL. THE THERMAL REGIME APPEARS IT WILL
MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL TEMPS MAY WELL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE PENDING THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS
SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. W/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...ABATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
RAPIDLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. DEEP MIXING OF QUITE STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WITH VERY COLD AIR WORKING OVER THE WATERS SUGGESTS GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PERHAPS ON LAKE HURON
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346-
     349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 290758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...DELIVERING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THOSE WILL END TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...USHERING IN VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN...
AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS. DRY BUT
CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDING
CLOSED UPPER LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ALREADY
WELL EAST OF THE REGION OF COURSE. BUT TRAILING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SHARPLY NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH PULLING DOWN CORE OF COLDEST
AIR. SMALLER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALSO NOTED SWINGING EASTWARD OUT
OF GREEN BAY AND WE/VE ALREADY SEEN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION). MEANWHILE...
ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS NOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ALTHOUGH FORCING HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SEEN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING TURNING WINDS NW AND PULLING COLDEST AIR INTO THE
REGION...H8 TEMPS FALLING OFF TO -3C TO -5C ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S WITH DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SUN LATER TODAY.
PRECIP-WISE...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF QG-UPWARD FORCING. BUT THE
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES. WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO TAKE OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW-MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT  AS UPSTREAM SFC
RIDGE EASES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS
AND BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS START
TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MINOR LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH.
QUESTION IS...P-TYPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
KEEP FREEZING LEVELS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET MSL SUGGESTING JUST RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT IN EASTERN
UPPER...DOWN AROUND 1600 FEET OR SO SUGGESTS SNOW OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...LOOK OUT BELOW! HERE COMES THE COLD AIR...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF
SNOW MANY AREAS HALLOWEEN MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES ON PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EVOLUTION: WELL...IT HAD TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT
THIS FALL...AND LOVE IT OR HATE IT...THAT TIME IS NOW. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
A RATHER POTENT 150 KNOT MID LEVEL JET DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
AND HELPING AMPLIFY THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. MEANWHILE MEAN TROUGHING OF COURSE RESIDES FROM HUDSON BAY
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES TRANSITING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/WESTERN NUNAVUT INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID TROUGH.
CONTINUED DEEPENING OF GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RAPIDLY HELP BUILD RIDGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...
EFFECTIVELY OPENING THE DOOR FOR RAPID SOUTHWARD RE-AMPLIFICATION OF
TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. THAT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONGER JET ENERGY
HELPS PUNT GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING INLAND...DISLODGING THE TROUGH
EASTWARD AND ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD
EAST...LIKELY TOWARD MIDWEEK BUT WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

LET`S LOOK AT THE DETAILS:

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: HERE COMES THE FUN WEATHER! LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO DOMINATE WITH DRY WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
QUICKLY APPROACHING WILL BE QUITE THE SHARP UPPER WAVE (ALREADY
CLEARLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) DROPPING TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKES. BACKING FLOW INTO THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN AN
AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.P. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALL WHILE MOISTURE DEEPENS SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE ACTUAL
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE REMAIN SOME MINOR GUIDANCE
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS VERY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPED ALONG BY QUITE THE
STRONG SHOT OF UPWARD FORCING/DYNAMICS ARRIVING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FROM A PRECIP TYPE STANDPOINT...MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS
LIQUID WITH A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FREEZING LEVELS UP ABOVE
2KFT. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 09-13Z
STRONGLY ARGUES FOR MANY SPOTS EXPERIENCING A QUICK TURNOVER AS
FREEZING LEVELS CRASH BELOW 1KFT (NEAR THE SURFACE EASTERN UPPER AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THE KEY OF COURSE WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS LEFT BY THIS POINT...BUT REALLY GETTING THE FEELING THAT
AT LEAST A BURST OF SNOW IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FOR A
TIME THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO A GOOD
BET WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -10C OR COLDER WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. STRONG DRYING IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ARGUES FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DESPITE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE A SNEAKY SUSPICION WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN SUCH A SHOT OF DYNAMICS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS...SOME
ACCUMULATION CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INTO EASTERN
UPPER AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT ANY HEAVIEST BURSTS
COULD OF COURSE LAY DOWN A QUICK COATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. BASED
ON TRENDS OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FORCING...
HAVE TO WONDER IF WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE HIGH
SPOTS AND WILL START THE TREND OF BEEFING UP ACCUMULATION...IN LINE
WITH WPC EXPECTATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...DESPITE WARMER
GROUND TEMPS. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME PRETTY HEFTY GUSTS AS DOWNWARD TRANSPORT IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR. ALL IN ALL...THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY EVENT TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL TROUBLES PROVIDED
SNOW PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...AS GIVEN HEAVY RATES...A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS ISN`T TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: DRYING OUT BUT STAYING CHILLY AS DEEPER
UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AS WE`RE LEFT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WHILE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
SAID LOW LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH PLENTY COLD LOW LEVELS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE COAST?)
CLOSER TO THE LAKE HURON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THAT THREAT
ENDING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOME LIGHT/ANTICYCLONIC AND WE
LOSE THE BEST INSTABILITY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE PESKY AT TIMES
(ESPECIALLY SATURDAY) AND LIMITED MIXING MANDATES TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SETTING UP A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: BETTER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO
GET INTO GEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK OUT AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER
TROUGHING WORKING THROUGH THE PLAINS. WHILE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THAT WAVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE END RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH OF COURSE A PUSH OF THICKER CLOUDS AS SAID WARM
ADVECTION CRANKS UP AS WELL. THE THERMAL REGIME APPEARS IT WILL
MODERATE SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH OVERALL TEMPS MAY WELL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY
SIDE PENDING THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS
SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. W/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/

ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346-
     349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR








000
FXUS63 KAPX 290345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY HALLOWEEN
MORNING...SENDING TEMPERATURES PLUNGING AND BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...TONIGHT

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEP WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR INTO UPPER MI AND NRN WI WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS 900-850 MB RH FCST.
AS THE COLDER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE AFT 06Z WITH 850/700
TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -4C/-10C...SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOPE WRLY FLOW. OVER ERN UPPER MI...WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
FALLING BELOW 1400 FT AGL...A MIX WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR WITH MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER
TO THE GREAT LAKES.

WEDNESDAY...PCPN CHANCES PEAK BY MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB THERMAL TROUGH
DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE 850/700 MB MOISTURE AND A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH A POSSIBLE MINOR SNOWFALL TO CLOSE OUT
OCTOBER...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL START TO THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA SITS UNDER A BENIGN REGION OF
A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN INACTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET PATTERN COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY LARGE-SCALE LIFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LAKE-H8 DELTA TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF LAKE MI FOR THE NW WIND
BELTS. LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN
INITIALLY IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND LOWERING SFC WET BULB TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE SAME...THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN FOR ALL
AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...IT WILL JUST BE A CLOUDY DAY
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE WORKS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 03Z FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
TROUGH...AND THUS A QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE STRAITS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO BEGIN TO CONVERGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
1009 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND A 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS MN.

VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV PAIRED WITH A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
PV ANOMALY WILL SUPPORT DEEP LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BRING
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPS TO UNDER 1KFT AGL BY 09Z FRI ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND 12Z FRI NEAR THE SHORES. WITH THAT SAID...ACCUMULATING
SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
AMPLE LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARMER ROAD SFC TEMPS AND RESULT IN
SOME SLUSH ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS. OVERALL...AROUND AN INCH OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE SHORELINES.

TO ADD TO THE PRECIP...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THOUGH THE DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
ASSISTED BY A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI. FOCUS TURNS TO
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C PRODUCE DELTA TEMPS OF
AT LEAST 15C. DUE NORTH WINDS THROUGH H8 SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST CWA CLEAR OF ANY APPRECIABLE LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH OVER MN FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF MUCH DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CUTOFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE CHILLY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA. AM NOT CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...BUT SOME AREAS SHOULD SEE ENOUGH REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
TO ALLOW FOR RAPID COOLING LATE IN THE NIGHT. GIVEN STARTING TEMPS
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S INLAND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC RIDGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WORKS OVER THE CWA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BY WAY OF A JET AXIS AND H5 TROUGH
AXIS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIODICALLY DROP TO MVFR AS
SCT/NMRS LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. W/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/

ALTHOUGH PEAK WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF GALE CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS TONIGHT...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...A COUPLE
OF GALE GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. THOSE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH ANOTHER BURST OF HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOME VERY COLD AIR DROPS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-346-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MR








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