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000
FXUS63 KAPX 301651
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1251 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE LIGHTNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CIRCLING OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN LOWER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH...MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND BACK THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF ONTARIO. THIS
DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING OUT OF YESTERDAY`S BL. ALSO...YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...WAS DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING/LOSS OF INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED MOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY...BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGHS. A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER DRIER AIR
WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND BISECTING NRN LOWER...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER CLOUD
WAS ONGOING IN NRN/CNTRL ONTARIO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN LOWER THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND M-55...BEFORE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND. MOST AREAS TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FLOW WILL BACK
MORE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH ARRIVE...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
WHEN COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER NE LOWER AND INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED (MAYBE
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE). THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER ACROSS NE LOWER WHEN THE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CARRIED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION...BUT
STILL FIGURE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH
LESS AND LESS INSTABILITY. COULD EVEN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DROP INTO
THE GTV BAY REGION FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AROUND GREEN BAY...AS
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE HELP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...QUITE
SIMILAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN
SIMILAR...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A SHADE LOW DUE TO CLOUDS. UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
CO-ALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
CO-ALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS STILL ROAMING THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
TROUGH WAS CROSSING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. SPEEDS ARE LIGHT...AND LIKELY TO GET
ALTERED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALSO BACK MORE SW/WEST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1250 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

MORNING STRATUS NEAR THE BIG WATERS HAS LOOSENED IT/S GRIP NEAR
TVC AND APN. PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SPROUTED OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEEDED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SETTLING SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL AFFECT THE TERMIMALS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SETUP THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KAPX 301651
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1251 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE LIGHTNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CIRCLING OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN LOWER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH...MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND BACK THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF ONTARIO. THIS
DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING OUT OF YESTERDAY`S BL. ALSO...YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...WAS DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING/LOSS OF INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED MOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY...BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGHS. A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER DRIER AIR
WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND BISECTING NRN LOWER...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER CLOUD
WAS ONGOING IN NRN/CNTRL ONTARIO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN LOWER THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND M-55...BEFORE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND. MOST AREAS TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FLOW WILL BACK
MORE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH ARRIVE...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
WHEN COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER NE LOWER AND INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED (MAYBE
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE). THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER ACROSS NE LOWER WHEN THE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CARRIED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION...BUT
STILL FIGURE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH
LESS AND LESS INSTABILITY. COULD EVEN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DROP INTO
THE GTV BAY REGION FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AROUND GREEN BAY...AS
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE HELP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...QUITE
SIMILAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN
SIMILAR...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A SHADE LOW DUE TO CLOUDS. UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
CO-ALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
CO-ALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS STILL ROAMING THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
TROUGH WAS CROSSING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. SPEEDS ARE LIGHT...AND LIKELY TO GET
ALTERED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALSO BACK MORE SW/WEST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1250 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

MORNING STRATUS NEAR THE BIG WATERS HAS LOOSENED IT/S GRIP NEAR
TVC AND APN. PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS SPROUTED OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEEDED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SETTLING SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
WILL AFFECT THE TERMIMALS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SETUP THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 301034
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
634 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE LIGHTNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CIRCLING OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN LOWER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH...MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND BACK THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF ONTARIO. THIS
DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING OUT OF YESTERDAY`S BL. ALSO...YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...WAS DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING/LOSS OF INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED MOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY...BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGHS. A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER DRIER AIR
WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND BISECTING NRN LOWER...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER CLOUD
WAS ONGOING IN NRN/CNTRL ONTARIO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN LOWER THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND M-55...BEFORE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND. MOST AREAS TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FLOW WILL BACK
MORE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH ARRIVE...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
WHEN COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER NE LOWER AND INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED (MAYBE
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE). THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER ACROSS NE LOWER WHEN THE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CARRIED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION...BUT
STILL FIGURE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH
LESS AND LESS INSTABILITY. COULD EVEN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DROP INTO
THE GTV BAY REGION FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AROUND GREEN BAY...AS
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE HELP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...QUITE
SIMILAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN
SIMILAR...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A SHADE LOW DUE TO CLOUDS. UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
CO-ALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING...

A QUICK SHOT OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE COMMON FOR AREAS ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. IT`S REALLY
BEEN JUMPING AROUND...THUS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE/WHEN. NW
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS WILL WANDER AROUND APN
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A POSSIBLE BETTER CHANCE ARRIVES ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS STILL ROAMING THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
TROUGH WAS CROSSING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. SPEEDS ARE LIGHT...AND LIKELY TO GET
ALTERED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALSO BACK MORE SW/WEST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 301034
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
634 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE LIGHTNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CIRCLING OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN LOWER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH...MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND BACK THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF ONTARIO. THIS
DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING OUT OF YESTERDAY`S BL. ALSO...YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...WAS DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING/LOSS OF INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED MOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY...BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGHS. A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER DRIER AIR
WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND BISECTING NRN LOWER...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER CLOUD
WAS ONGOING IN NRN/CNTRL ONTARIO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN LOWER THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND M-55...BEFORE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND. MOST AREAS TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FLOW WILL BACK
MORE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH ARRIVE...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
WHEN COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER NE LOWER AND INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED (MAYBE
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE). THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER ACROSS NE LOWER WHEN THE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CARRIED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION...BUT
STILL FIGURE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH
LESS AND LESS INSTABILITY. COULD EVEN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DROP INTO
THE GTV BAY REGION FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AROUND GREEN BAY...AS
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE HELP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...QUITE
SIMILAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN
SIMILAR...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A SHADE LOW DUE TO CLOUDS. UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
CO-ALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING...

A QUICK SHOT OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE COMMON FOR AREAS ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. IT`S REALLY
BEEN JUMPING AROUND...THUS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE/WHEN. NW
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS WILL WANDER AROUND APN
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A POSSIBLE BETTER CHANCE ARRIVES ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS STILL ROAMING THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
TROUGH WAS CROSSING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. SPEEDS ARE LIGHT...AND LIKELY TO GET
ALTERED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALSO BACK MORE SW/WEST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 300842
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE LIGHTNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CIRCLING OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN LOWER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH...MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND BACK THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF ONTARIO. THIS
DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING OUT OF YESTERDAY`S BL. ALSO...YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...WAS DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING/LOSS OF INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED MOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY...BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGHS. A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER DRIER AIR
WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND BISECTING NRN LOWER...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER CLOUD
WAS ONGOING IN NRN/CNTRL ONTARIO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN LOWER THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND M-55...BEFORE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND. MOST AREAS TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FLOW WILL BACK
MORE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH ARRIVE...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
WHEN COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER NE LOWER AND INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED (MAYBE
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE). THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER ACROSS NE LOWER WHEN THE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CARRIED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION...BUT
STILL FIGURE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH
LESS AND LESS INSTABILITY. COULD EVEN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DROP INTO
THE GTV BAY REGION FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AROUND GREEN BAY...AS
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE HELP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...QUITE
SIMILAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN
SIMILAR...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A SHADE LOW DUE TO CLOUDS. UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
COALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DECENT
COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR
PRIMARILY PLN/APN. THIS WILL BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE NOT MOISTENING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAINLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO ROAM
THE AIRPORTS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS STILL ROAMING THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
TROUGH WAS CROSSING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. SPEEDS ARE LIGHT...AND LIKELY TO GET
ALTERED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALSO BACK MORE SW/WEST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 300842
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE LIGHTNING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CIRCLING OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS CROSSING NRN LOWER. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE TROUGH...MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND BACK THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF ONTARIO. THIS
DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING OUT OF YESTERDAY`S BL. ALSO...YESTERDAY`S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...WAS DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN.
NOCTURNAL COOLING/LOSS OF INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED MOST ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY TO FADE AWAY...BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGHS. A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER DRIER AIR
WAS DROPPING SOUTH AND BISECTING NRN LOWER...WHILE A STRONGER WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER CLOUD
WAS ONGOING IN NRN/CNTRL ONTARIO.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NRN LOWER THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND M-55...BEFORE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND. MOST AREAS TO BE RAIN FREE. THIS FLOW WILL BACK
MORE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SFC
TROUGH ARRIVE...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
WHEN COMBINED WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER NE LOWER AND INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED (MAYBE
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE). THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER...EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN A COUPLE HOURS
LATER ACROSS NE LOWER WHEN THE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CARRIED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE REGION...BUT
STILL FIGURE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT WITH
LESS AND LESS INSTABILITY. COULD EVEN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DROP INTO
THE GTV BAY REGION FROM AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AROUND GREEN BAY...AS
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SHORTWAVE HELP.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...QUITE
SIMILAR...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN
SIMILAR...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A SHADE LOW DUE TO CLOUDS. UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH A FEW SHOWER CHANCES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COOL SEASON LIKE PATTERN
REMAINS...WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EAST NOAM TROUGHING BOOKENDED BY
JUST AS IMPRESSIVE WEST ATLANTIC/WESTERN NOAM RIDGES. SUCH AMPLIFIED
PATTERNS ARE OFTEN A SLOW ONE TO YIELD...AND THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS TROUGHING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER TIME...BUT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOME MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE OVERHEAD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEK PREDICATED BY SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH PARENT TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. AS FOR THE
FORMER...WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM...ONE
DROPPING OVERHEAD NOW...WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH STILL OTHERS ROTATING ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF
TROUGH CENTER LOCATED OVER JAMES BAY. NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE WAVES...ALTHOUGH EACH ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. AS FOR
INSTABILITY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DURATION...COURTESY OF LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT TERRIBLY
COLD MID LEVELS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION OF
WAVES/INSTABILITY...PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE
AXES...TO CONTINUE A MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
NEED ADDRESSING.

DETAILS: REALLY NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TALKED
ABOUT ABOVE. WOULD FEEL MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES
IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS A TOUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. PATTERN SAYS THAT
SHOULD NOT HAPPEN...WITH FLOW DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING OF VORT LOBES/SHORTWAVES PARAMOUNT IN SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT TO PREDICT PERIODS OF BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL. STILL
APPEARS THURSDAY IS ONE SUCH PERIOD WHEN THINGS COULD BETTER
COALIGN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS STARTING TO SUGGEST BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT
EXITING BEFORE PEAK "HEATING" IS REALIZED. STRONG EVIDENCE YESTERDAY
OF A RATHER HEALTHY LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW...AND SEE NO REASON IT
WON`T OCCUR AGAIN (ALL WEEK ACTUALLY). INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY
HAS THIS "LOOK"...TAILORING POPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM EAST TO
WEST. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON FOR MUCH CHANGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR MUCH THE SAME...WITH DRY OVERNIGHTS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN LACK
OF BETTER INSTABILITY.

PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF NEXT WEEK....ALTHOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED RATHER STEADFAST SHOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES BY MONDAY AS NEXT WAVE POTENTIALLY ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES: AIRMASS TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TIMING
DEPENDENT OF COURSE...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT IS A TOUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVES NEXT WORK WEEK (NOTHING LIKE THE START OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DECENT
COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR
PRIMARILY PLN/APN. THIS WILL BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE NOT MOISTENING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAINLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO ROAM
THE AIRPORTS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS STILL ROAMING THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
TROUGH WAS CROSSING LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/NW. SPEEDS ARE LIGHT...AND LIKELY TO GET
ALTERED BY LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALSO BACK MORE SW/WEST TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES AGAIN
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD









000
FXUS63 KAPX 300524
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
124 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BY SUNSET...

CURRENTLY, RADAR IS BEGINNING TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS
SHOWERS, AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON KAPX
RADAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A 500 MB JET STREAK
THAT IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE JET STREAK
IS ROTATING ABOUT THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING TO A
POINT OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THIS JET STREAK ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW, AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WILL EXPECT THE POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION TO
END AROUND 23Z. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE IN NE LOWER AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 AND EAST I-75. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO MOST OF NW LOWER BY
10-15 MILES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OUT
OF COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKE TVC, FKS, AND MBL. ONCE THE HEATING IS
GONE, THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT
FROM THE 500 MB JET STREAK. THE CHANCES ARE ONLY ISOLATE, ONLY
BECAUSE THE 700-500 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 30% BY 06Z, AND THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE 850 MB RH FALLS A BIT AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH THAT SHARPENS UP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN S LOWER. SO OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VARYING SHOWER CHANCES WITHIN COOL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE
JULY PATTERN...DEEP TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA (3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN) AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGING IN
BETWEEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE THE HEAT HAS RETURNED TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CAUGHT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTRANSIGENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH/CANADIAN
UPPER LOW HANGS TOUGH...THOUGH MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND.  VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE
AROUND AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.  THERMAL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES OUT THERE UNTIL A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY):  INTERESTING FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL COOLING.  BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT...WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT?
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL ON THIS IDEA...WITH
INDICATIONS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S (SUPPORTED BY
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON).  A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT GOING
TOTALLY DRY IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT CAN MOSTLY JUSTIFY IT
PROVIDED DEW POINTS DO MIX OUT.  IF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MENTION FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS
THAT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING...IT
MAY DRAG UPSTREAM SHOWER REMNANTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A WEDNESDAY EVENING ISSUE.
GUIDANCE QPF FIELDS NOT THRILLED WITH THIS IDEA BUT THE MASS FIELDS
DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY...AND WHILE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A LITTLE COOL AIR STILL LINGERS IN LOWER
LAYERS.  THERE IS ALSO BETTER MOISTURE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION AND INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY (DEW POINTS PROBABLY IN THE
40S-AROUND 50).  THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(E.G., 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C WARMER) WILL MAKE GENERATING
INSTABILITY DIFFICULT (PROBABLY MORE DIFFICULT THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).  THERE IS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL MOSTLY
SIDESWIPE THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT SLIPS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY.  THINKING THAT THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS IT BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER STARTING THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): COOL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...SO WILL STILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS THOUGH LIKE THE NEAR
TERM PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A QUESTION.  LOOKING AT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND
ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY SO LOOKING DRIER TO END THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  WILL START TUESDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DECENT
COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR
PRIMARILY PLN/APN. THIS WILL BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE NOT MOISTENING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAINLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO ROAM
THE AIRPORTS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRETTY LAX THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT SUPPORTIVE OF MANY MARINE ISSUES IN THE NEAR
TERM.  LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO SET UP WITHIN
MOST NEARSHORE ZONES WEDNESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 300524
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
124 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BY SUNSET...

CURRENTLY, RADAR IS BEGINNING TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS
SHOWERS, AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON KAPX
RADAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A 500 MB JET STREAK
THAT IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE JET STREAK
IS ROTATING ABOUT THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING TO A
POINT OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THIS JET STREAK ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW, AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WILL EXPECT THE POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION TO
END AROUND 23Z. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE IN NE LOWER AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 AND EAST I-75. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO MOST OF NW LOWER BY
10-15 MILES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OUT
OF COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKE TVC, FKS, AND MBL. ONCE THE HEATING IS
GONE, THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT
FROM THE 500 MB JET STREAK. THE CHANCES ARE ONLY ISOLATE, ONLY
BECAUSE THE 700-500 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 30% BY 06Z, AND THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE 850 MB RH FALLS A BIT AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH THAT SHARPENS UP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN S LOWER. SO OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VARYING SHOWER CHANCES WITHIN COOL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE
JULY PATTERN...DEEP TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA (3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN) AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGING IN
BETWEEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE THE HEAT HAS RETURNED TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CAUGHT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTRANSIGENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH/CANADIAN
UPPER LOW HANGS TOUGH...THOUGH MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND.  VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE
AROUND AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.  THERMAL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES OUT THERE UNTIL A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY):  INTERESTING FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL COOLING.  BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT...WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT?
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL ON THIS IDEA...WITH
INDICATIONS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S (SUPPORTED BY
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON).  A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT GOING
TOTALLY DRY IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT CAN MOSTLY JUSTIFY IT
PROVIDED DEW POINTS DO MIX OUT.  IF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MENTION FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS
THAT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING...IT
MAY DRAG UPSTREAM SHOWER REMNANTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A WEDNESDAY EVENING ISSUE.
GUIDANCE QPF FIELDS NOT THRILLED WITH THIS IDEA BUT THE MASS FIELDS
DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY...AND WHILE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A LITTLE COOL AIR STILL LINGERS IN LOWER
LAYERS.  THERE IS ALSO BETTER MOISTURE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION AND INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY (DEW POINTS PROBABLY IN THE
40S-AROUND 50).  THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(E.G., 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C WARMER) WILL MAKE GENERATING
INSTABILITY DIFFICULT (PROBABLY MORE DIFFICULT THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).  THERE IS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL MOSTLY
SIDESWIPE THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT SLIPS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY.  THINKING THAT THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS IT BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER STARTING THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): COOL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...SO WILL STILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS THOUGH LIKE THE NEAR
TERM PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A QUESTION.  LOOKING AT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND
ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY SO LOOKING DRIER TO END THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  WILL START TUESDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...IFR EARLY THIS MORNING...

A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DECENT
COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR
PRIMARILY PLN/APN. THIS WILL BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE NOT MOISTENING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAINLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO ROAM
THE AIRPORTS.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRETTY LAX THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT SUPPORTIVE OF MANY MARINE ISSUES IN THE NEAR
TERM.  LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO SET UP WITHIN
MOST NEARSHORE ZONES WEDNESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 300003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
803 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BY SUNSET...

CURRENTLY, RADAR IS BEGINNING TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS
SHOWERS, AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON KAPX
RADAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A 500 MB JET STREAK
THAT IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE JET STREAK
IS ROTATING ABOUT THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING TO A
POINT OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THIS JET STREAK ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW, AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WILL EXPECT THE POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION TO
END AROUND 23Z. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE IN NE LOWER AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 AND EAST I-75. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO MOST OF NW LOWER BY
10-15 MILES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OUT
OF COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKE TVC, FKS, AND MBL. ONCE THE HEATING IS
GONE, THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT
FROM THE 500 MB JET STREAK. THE CHANCES ARE ONLY ISOLATE, ONLY
BECAUSE THE 700-500 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 30% BY 06Z, AND THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE 850 MB RH FALLS A BIT AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH THAT SHARPENS UP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN S LOWER. SO OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VARYING SHOWER CHANCES WITHIN COOL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE
JULY PATTERN...DEEP TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA (3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN) AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGING IN
BETWEEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE THE HEAT HAS RETURNED TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CAUGHT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTRANSIGENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH/CANADIAN
UPPER LOW HANGS TOUGH...THOUGH MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND.  VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE
AROUND AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.  THERMAL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES OUT THERE UNTIL A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY):  INTERESTING FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL COOLING.  BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT...WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT?
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL ON THIS IDEA...WITH
INDICATIONS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S (SUPPORTED BY
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON).  A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT GOING
TOTALLY DRY IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT CAN MOSTLY JUSTIFY IT
PROVIDED DEW POINTS DO MIX OUT.  IF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MENTION FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS
THAT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING...IT
MAY DRAG UPSTREAM SHOWER REMNANTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A WEDNESDAY EVENING ISSUE.
GUIDANCE QPF FIELDS NOT THRILLED WITH THIS IDEA BUT THE MASS FIELDS
DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY...AND WHILE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A LITTLE COOL AIR STILL LINGERS IN LOWER
LAYERS.  THERE IS ALSO BETTER MOISTURE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION AND INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY (DEW POINTS PROBABLY IN THE
40S-AROUND 50).  THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(E.G., 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C WARMER) WILL MAKE GENERATING
INSTABILITY DIFFICULT (PROBABLY MORE DIFFICULT THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).  THERE IS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL MOSTLY
SIDESWIPE THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT SLIPS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY.  THINKING THAT THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS IT BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER STARTING THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): COOL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...SO WILL STILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS THOUGH LIKE THE NEAR
TERM PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A QUESTION.  LOOKING AT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND
ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY SO LOOKING DRIER TO END THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  WILL START TUESDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDER AS WELL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN CONTINUE TO FALL APART AFTER THEY REACH
LAKE MICHIGAN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER PLN AND APN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRETTY LAX THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT SUPPORTIVE OF MANY MARINE ISSUES IN THE NEAR
TERM.  LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO SET UP WITHIN
MOST NEARSHORE ZONES WEDNESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 300003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
803 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BY SUNSET...

CURRENTLY, RADAR IS BEGINNING TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS
SHOWERS, AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON KAPX
RADAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A 500 MB JET STREAK
THAT IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE JET STREAK
IS ROTATING ABOUT THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING TO A
POINT OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THIS JET STREAK ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW, AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WILL EXPECT THE POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION TO
END AROUND 23Z. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE IN NE LOWER AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 AND EAST I-75. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO MOST OF NW LOWER BY
10-15 MILES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OUT
OF COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKE TVC, FKS, AND MBL. ONCE THE HEATING IS
GONE, THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT
FROM THE 500 MB JET STREAK. THE CHANCES ARE ONLY ISOLATE, ONLY
BECAUSE THE 700-500 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 30% BY 06Z, AND THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE 850 MB RH FALLS A BIT AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH THAT SHARPENS UP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN S LOWER. SO OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VARYING SHOWER CHANCES WITHIN COOL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE
JULY PATTERN...DEEP TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA (3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN) AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGING IN
BETWEEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE THE HEAT HAS RETURNED TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CAUGHT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTRANSIGENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH/CANADIAN
UPPER LOW HANGS TOUGH...THOUGH MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND.  VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE
AROUND AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.  THERMAL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES OUT THERE UNTIL A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY):  INTERESTING FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL COOLING.  BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT...WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT?
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL ON THIS IDEA...WITH
INDICATIONS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S (SUPPORTED BY
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON).  A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT GOING
TOTALLY DRY IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT CAN MOSTLY JUSTIFY IT
PROVIDED DEW POINTS DO MIX OUT.  IF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MENTION FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS
THAT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING...IT
MAY DRAG UPSTREAM SHOWER REMNANTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A WEDNESDAY EVENING ISSUE.
GUIDANCE QPF FIELDS NOT THRILLED WITH THIS IDEA BUT THE MASS FIELDS
DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY...AND WHILE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A LITTLE COOL AIR STILL LINGERS IN LOWER
LAYERS.  THERE IS ALSO BETTER MOISTURE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION AND INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY (DEW POINTS PROBABLY IN THE
40S-AROUND 50).  THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(E.G., 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C WARMER) WILL MAKE GENERATING
INSTABILITY DIFFICULT (PROBABLY MORE DIFFICULT THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).  THERE IS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL MOSTLY
SIDESWIPE THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT SLIPS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY.  THINKING THAT THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS IT BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER STARTING THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): COOL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...SO WILL STILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS THOUGH LIKE THE NEAR
TERM PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A QUESTION.  LOOKING AT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND
ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY SO LOOKING DRIER TO END THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  WILL START TUESDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDER AS WELL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN CONTINUE TO FALL APART AFTER THEY REACH
LAKE MICHIGAN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVER PLN AND APN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRETTY LAX THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT SUPPORTIVE OF MANY MARINE ISSUES IN THE NEAR
TERM.  LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO SET UP WITHIN
MOST NEARSHORE ZONES WEDNESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 292002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BY SUNSET...

CURRENTLY, RADAR IS BEGINNING TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS
SHOWERS, AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON KAPX
RADAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A 500 MB JET STREAK
THAT IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE JET STREAK
IS ROTATING ABOUT THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING TO A
POINT OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THIS JET STREAK ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW, AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WILL EXPECT THE POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION TO
END AROUND 23Z. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE IN NE LOWER AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 AND EAST I-75. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO MOST OF NW LOWER BY
10-15 MILES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OUT
OF COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKE TVC, FKS, AND MBL. ONCE THE HEATING IS
GONE, THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT
FROM THE 500 MB JET STREAK. THE CHANCES ARE ONLY ISOLATE, ONLY
BECAUSE THE 700-500 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 30% BY 06Z, AND THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE 850 MB RH FALLS A BIT AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH THAT SHARPENS UP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN S LOWER. SO OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VARYING SHOWER CHANCES WITHIN COOL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE
JULY PATTERN...DEEP TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA (3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN) AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGING IN
BETWEEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE THE HEAT HAS RETURNED TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CAUGHT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTRANSIGENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH/CANADIAN
UPPER LOW HANGS TOUGH...THOUGH MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND.  VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE
AROUND AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.  THERMAL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES OUT THERE UNTIL A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY):  INTERESTING FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL COOLING.  BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT...WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT?
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL ON THIS IDEA...WITH
INDICATIONS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S (SUPPORTED BY
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON).  A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT GOING
TOTALLY DRY IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT CAN MOSTLY JUSTIFY IT
PROVIDED DEW POINTS DO MIX OUT.  IF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MENTION FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS
THAT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING...IT
MAY DRAG UPSTREAM SHOWER REMNANTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A WEDNESDAY EVENING ISSUE.
GUIDANCE QPF FIELDS NOT THRILLED WITH THIS IDEA BUT THE MASS FIELDS
DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY...AND WHILE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A LITTLE COOL AIR STILL LINGERS IN LOWER
LAYERS.  THERE IS ALSO BETTER MOISTURE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION AND INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY (DEW POINTS PROBABLY IN THE
40S-AROUND 50).  THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(E.G., 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C WARMER) WILL MAKE GENERATING
INSTABILITY DIFFICULT (PROBABLY MORE DIFFICULT THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).  THERE IS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL MOSTLY
SIDESWIPE THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT SLIPS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY.  THINKING THAT THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS IT BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER STARTING THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): COOL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...SO WILL STILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS THOUGH LIKE THE NEAR
TERM PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A QUESTION.  LOOKING AT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND
ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY SO LOOKING DRIER TO END THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  WILL START TUESDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON, IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS POINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS BEEN KEEPING A
LID ON THE TEMPERATURES, AND THE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS IN W
UPPER HAVE BEEN FALLING APART BY THE TIME THEY GET TO LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH. SO WILL LEAVE THE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TVC AND MBL. THE AIR UPSTREAM OF PLN LOOKS RATHER
STABLE AT THIS POINT, SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT. THAT
LEAVES APN, WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND IT
IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE SOME CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE ORGANIZING INTO
SOME SHOWERS. SO HAVE PULLED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH FOR NOW AND SEE
HOW THE AFTERNOON EVOLVES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRETTY LAX THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT SUPPORTIVE OF MANY MARINE ISSUES IN THE NEAR
TERM.  LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO SET UP WITHIN
MOST NEARSHORE ZONES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 292002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BY SUNSET...

CURRENTLY, RADAR IS BEGINNING TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS
SHOWERS, AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON KAPX
RADAR. THIS IS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A 500 MB JET STREAK
THAT IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE JET STREAK
IS ROTATING ABOUT THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING TO A
POINT OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THIS JET STREAK ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW, AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WILL EXPECT THE POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION TO
END AROUND 23Z. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE IN NE LOWER AND SOME LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72 AND EAST I-75. LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO MOST OF NW LOWER BY
10-15 MILES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OUT
OF COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKE TVC, FKS, AND MBL. ONCE THE HEATING IS
GONE, THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT
FROM THE 500 MB JET STREAK. THE CHANCES ARE ONLY ISOLATE, ONLY
BECAUSE THE 700-500 MB RH FALLS TO LESS THAN 30% BY 06Z, AND THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE 850 MB RH FALLS A BIT AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH THAT SHARPENS UP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN S LOWER. SO OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VARYING SHOWER CHANCES WITHIN COOL AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE
JULY PATTERN...DEEP TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA (3+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN) AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGING IN
BETWEEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE THE HEAT HAS RETURNED TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CAUGHT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA WITH SEVERAL
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AND GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTRANSIGENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH/CANADIAN
UPPER LOW HANGS TOUGH...THOUGH MAGNITUDE OF TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND.  VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING BACK TO
THE WEST ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE
AROUND AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY.  THERMAL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO RELAX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES OUT THERE UNTIL A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY):  INTERESTING FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY EVENING...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL COOLING.  BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT...WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT?
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL ON THIS IDEA...WITH
INDICATIONS THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE 40S (SUPPORTED BY
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON).  A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT GOING
TOTALLY DRY IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT CAN MOSTLY JUSTIFY IT
PROVIDED DEW POINTS DO MIX OUT.  IF SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MENTION FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS
THAT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING...IT
MAY DRAG UPSTREAM SHOWER REMNANTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A WEDNESDAY EVENING ISSUE.
GUIDANCE QPF FIELDS NOT THRILLED WITH THIS IDEA BUT THE MASS FIELDS
DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY...AND WHILE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A LITTLE COOL AIR STILL LINGERS IN LOWER
LAYERS.  THERE IS ALSO BETTER MOISTURE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CIRCULATION AND INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH FROM WEDNESDAY (DEW POINTS PROBABLY IN THE
40S-AROUND 50).  THIS COMBINED WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(E.G., 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C WARMER) WILL MAKE GENERATING
INSTABILITY DIFFICULT (PROBABLY MORE DIFFICULT THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON).  THERE IS A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL MOSTLY
SIDESWIPE THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THAT SLIPS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY.  THINKING THAT THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS IT BRINGS SOME SHOWERS TO
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER STARTING THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL
TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): COOL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...SO WILL STILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS THOUGH LIKE THE NEAR
TERM PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN A QUESTION.  LOOKING AT
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND
ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY SO LOOKING DRIER TO END THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE/COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  WILL START TUESDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON, IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS POINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS BEEN KEEPING A
LID ON THE TEMPERATURES, AND THE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS IN W
UPPER HAVE BEEN FALLING APART BY THE TIME THEY GET TO LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH. SO WILL LEAVE THE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TVC AND MBL. THE AIR UPSTREAM OF PLN LOOKS RATHER
STABLE AT THIS POINT, SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT. THAT
LEAVES APN, WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND IT
IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE SOME CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE ORGANIZING INTO
SOME SHOWERS. SO HAVE PULLED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH FOR NOW AND SEE
HOW THE AFTERNOON EVOLVES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRETTY LAX THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT SUPPORTIVE OF MANY MARINE ISSUES IN THE NEAR
TERM.  LAKE BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO SET UP WITHIN
MOST NEARSHORE ZONES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 291721
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE ONE MINOR UPDATE EARLIER, TAKING THE THUNDER OUT OF THE
PREVIOUS 3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LEFT THE THUNDER IN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AS THE LIFTED INDEX IS SUPPOSED TO FALL OFF AND THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH, AM
BEGINNING TO THINK WE MAY JUST GET SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER AS THE RADAR TRENDS AREN`T LOOKING VERY PROMISING. WILL
HOLD ONTO THESE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON, IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS POINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS BEEN KEEPING A
LID ON THE TEMPERATURES, AND THE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS IN W
UPPER HAVE BEEN FALLING APART BY THE TIME THEY GET TO LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH. SO WILL LEAVE THE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TVC AND MBL. THE AIR UPSTREAM OF PLN LOOKS RATHER
STABLE AT THIS POINT, SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT. THAT
LEAVES APN, WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND IT
IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE SOME CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE ORGANIZING INTO
SOME SHOWERS. SO HAVE PULLED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH FOR NOW AND SEE
HOW THE AFTERNOON EVOLVES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 291721
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE ONE MINOR UPDATE EARLIER, TAKING THE THUNDER OUT OF THE
PREVIOUS 3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LEFT THE THUNDER IN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AS THE LIFTED INDEX IS SUPPOSED TO FALL OFF AND THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH, AM
BEGINNING TO THINK WE MAY JUST GET SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER AS THE RADAR TRENDS AREN`T LOOKING VERY PROMISING. WILL
HOLD ONTO THESE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON, IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS POINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS/STRATOCU HAS BEEN KEEPING A
LID ON THE TEMPERATURES, AND THE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS IN W
UPPER HAVE BEEN FALLING APART BY THE TIME THEY GET TO LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH. SO WILL LEAVE THE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TVC AND MBL. THE AIR UPSTREAM OF PLN LOOKS RATHER
STABLE AT THIS POINT, SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT. THAT
LEAVES APN, WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND IT
IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE SOME CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE ORGANIZING INTO
SOME SHOWERS. SO HAVE PULLED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH FOR NOW AND SEE
HOW THE AFTERNOON EVOLVES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 291617
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1217 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE ONE MINOR UPDATE EARLIER, TAKING THE THUNDER OUT OF THE
PREVIOUS 3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LEFT THE THUNDER IN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AS THE LIFTED INDEX IS SUPPOSED TO FALL OFF AND THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH, AM
BEGINNING TO THINK WE MAY JUST GET SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER AS THE RADAR TRENDS AREN`T LOOKING VERY PROMISING. WILL
HOLD ONTO THESE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A TOUCH OF MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER...

A SFC TROUGH IS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING INTO A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS. AS THESE CLOUDS LIFT LATER THIS MORNING...A WEDGE OF
DEEPER DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN ACROSS PLN AND EVENTUALLY APN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PLN
TODAY OR TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
AROUND THE OTHER AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY HIGH...BUT
DECENT ENOUGH FOR VCSH/VCTS TO BE USED IN THE TAFS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR/LACK OF FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING A
QUIET NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW/NW GUSTING TO MAYBE 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NW LOWER AND LIGHTER OVER THE APN WAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 291617
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1217 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MADE ONE MINOR UPDATE EARLIER, TAKING THE THUNDER OUT OF THE
PREVIOUS 3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. LEFT THE THUNDER IN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AS THE LIFTED INDEX IS SUPPOSED TO FALL OFF AND THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH, AM
BEGINNING TO THINK WE MAY JUST GET SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER AS THE RADAR TRENDS AREN`T LOOKING VERY PROMISING. WILL
HOLD ONTO THESE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A TOUCH OF MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER...

A SFC TROUGH IS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING INTO A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS. AS THESE CLOUDS LIFT LATER THIS MORNING...A WEDGE OF
DEEPER DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN ACROSS PLN AND EVENTUALLY APN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PLN
TODAY OR TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
AROUND THE OTHER AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY HIGH...BUT
DECENT ENOUGH FOR VCSH/VCTS TO BE USED IN THE TAFS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR/LACK OF FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING A
QUIET NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW/NW GUSTING TO MAYBE 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NW LOWER AND LIGHTER OVER THE APN WAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 291043
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
643 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A TOUCH OF MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER...

A SFC TROUGH IS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING INTO A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS. AS THESE CLOUDS LIFT LATER THIS MORNING...A WEDGE OF
DEEPER DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN ACROSS PLN AND EVENTUALLY APN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PLN
TODAY OR TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
AROUND THE OTHER AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY HIGH...BUT
DECENT ENOUGH FOR VCSH/VCTS TO BE USED IN THE TAFS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR/LACK OF FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING A
QUIET NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW/NW GUSTING TO MAYBE 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NW LOWER AND LIGHTER OVER THE APN WAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 291043
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
643 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A TOUCH OF MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER...

A SFC TROUGH IS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING INTO A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS. AS THESE CLOUDS LIFT LATER THIS MORNING...A WEDGE OF
DEEPER DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN ACROSS PLN AND EVENTUALLY APN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PLN
TODAY OR TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
AROUND THE OTHER AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY HIGH...BUT
DECENT ENOUGH FOR VCSH/VCTS TO BE USED IN THE TAFS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR/LACK OF FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING A
QUIET NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW/NW GUSTING TO MAYBE 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NW LOWER AND LIGHTER OVER THE APN WAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 290720
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OF COURSE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO MVFR UNDER OR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 290720
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FOR SOME...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH SEEN ON AREA OBS IN EASTERN UPPER.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF SMALL RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR WITH THIS TROUGH
AS FAR SOUTH AS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTY AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE BETTER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS WELL WEST OF US
FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF ONE
VORTICITY MAXIMA.  THIS IS NEARER THE STRONGER OVERALL FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL PWAT. COVERAGE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BETTER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE DRIFT OVER/JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH DRIVES THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN NOW
INTO MID MORNING. VORT MAX LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH JUST A
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ON THROUGH. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE WISCONSIN AND
POSSIBLE CLIPPING TVC BAY REGION. WE WILL ALSO SEE THE BETTER JET
FORCING ACROSS THIS AREA...ALONG WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 6.5C/KM
AND BETTER PWATS. IN THE MEANTIME...A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR (SEEN ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY NOSING INTO SRN ONTARIO) SWEEPS DOWN AND LAYS OUT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MAYBE A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE GTV
BAY REGION...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THE MORE E/NE OF
THERE. ACTUALLY BELIEVE SEEING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NE LOWER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO ~9500 FT SUGGEST KEEPING SMALL HAIL INTO THE
FORECAST PICTURE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT TOO LIKELY. OVERALL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION MAY NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING SEVERE. PRIMARILY A LARGER HAIL
THREAT.

HIGHS STILL QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. NOT
AS MUCH CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...A SLOW MODERATING TREND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: TROUGHING DOMINATES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
ASSOCIATED COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE A THING OF THE
PAST...HOWEVER...AND LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DURATION. PER THE USUAL...SUCH TROUGHING IS OFTEN AN
UNSTABLE ONE IN THE HEART OF SUMMER...AND WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR PERIODIC MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS WELL
REMOVED...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OR
HEAVY RAIN. PATTERN ATTEMPTS DEAMPLIFICATION HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AGREE THAT IT SHOULD DO SO...BUT
HAVE A HUNCH AT LEAST A LOWER AMPLITUDE VERSION OF CURRENT PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF BLOCKING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A "MESSY" WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THIS
WEEK AS WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT TROUGHING INTERACT WITH
THE DAILY INSTABILITY CYCLE. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING OF SUCH WAVES
A FRUITLESS ENDEAVOR JUST YET. THROW IN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR
LAKE SHADOWS...AND FIGURING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES BECOMES A RATHER FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE. AT NO
POINT DOES INSTABILITY LOOK OVERWHELMING...WITH GENERAL COOL AIRMASS
AND RATHER LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. H5 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
A TOUCH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING...AT LEAST HELPING THE
INSTABILITY CAUSE. SIMPLY FORCED TO KEEP THINGS GENERIC...WITH A
STRONG TREND TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUMMER CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF DAYTIME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL PROBABLY REGRET
SAYING THIS...BUT AS A ROUGH FIRST GUESS IT APPEARS THE "BEST"
POTENTIAL FOR RAINS WILL BE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
WAVE TIMING APPEARS TO BE BEST COLLOCATED WITH PEAK OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY CYCLE. NOW...HAVING JUST SAID THAT...REALITY WILL LIKELY
BE NOWHERE NEAR WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. EITHER WAY...AT
NO POINT DOES A WASHOUT APPEAR IN THE WORKS...WITH MORE OF A SHORT
DURATION SHOWER ENVIRONMENT AND LONG PERIODS OF NO RAIN AT ALL.

FORECAST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
STRONGLY TRENDED TOWARD A GENERIC MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.
SUCH SAYS ADDITIONAL LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE OVERHEAD IN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
FLOW. ITS A START...AND ONE THAT WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAINFULLY SLOW TO
MODERATE AS AIRFLOW REMAINS LARGELY DIRECTED OUT OF CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DURATION...BUT AT
LEAST ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO WHAT IS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OF COURSE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO MVFR UNDER OR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SEVERAL SFC TROUGHS ROTATING INTO THE REGION...ALTERING
WIND DIRECTIONS BACK AND FORTH FROM SW TO N/NW. THE FIRST OF THESE
TROUGHS IS EXITING THIS MORNING. NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BACK MORE
WEST...BEFORE VEERING BACK NW/N ARRIVE TODAY...WITH NW FLOW BACKING
SW...THEN BACK TO N/NW TONIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
TROUGH...WITH BACKING FLOW OUT OF THE SW. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...AND WILL ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
INTO THURSDAY WITH A WEAKER GRADIENT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 290352
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
ON THE COOL SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...OUT-AND-IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT AND SOME SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS.  THERE IS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS
WELL ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.  CLOSER TO HOME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERSISTENT
STRATOCUMULUS...SOME OF IT LAKE-AIDED THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
STREAMERS OF DRIZZLE...AND DIURNALLY-AIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER CONFINED TO EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MOST OF
MACKINAC COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTRAPOLATES INTO
NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN
ISSUES GIVEN WEAK FEATURES WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SORT OF A NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK
FEATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PLUS A LITTLE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY) COMBINING TO BRING A MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWER THREAT TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN FLUX HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING...AS STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN LOWER GETS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST BY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD DECK HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR DRIFTS SOUTH.  VORTICITY CENTER HEADING TOWARD ISLE
ROYALE WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...NOT GOING TO RULE OUT THAT IT STILL WON`T HAVE A FEW RAIN
DROPS WITH IT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK TROUGH AT 850/700MB ROTATES IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB.  SO
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE
NIGHT.  DON`T THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS THROUGH THE
STRAITS VICINITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A STUCK UPPER LEVEL LOW...

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE AREA, UNTIL CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. THAT`S
WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF CANADA FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AGAIN. THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED, WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCK WILL LAST A FEW DAYS. SO WITH
THE IN MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...

(7/29)TUESDAY...MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AS IS SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT TO MENTION WITH THE MOISTURE,
THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AT THE VERY LEAST. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THUNDER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE BELOW 30 KNOTS, SO WON`T BE
EXPECTING ANY GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH THESE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAPSE RATES STABILIZE (LIS>0C)
AFTER 00Z, SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE SE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.

(7/30)WEDNESDAY...INHERITED 30 POPS IN E UPPER AND THE SE COUNTIES
OF N LOWER, BUT WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE 500 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO N LOWER BY 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH
THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20-30% NOSING INTO N LOWER AS WELL,
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR NOW AS THE WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE EVENING DRY AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOISTEN "ENOUGH" FOR SHOWERS
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE 500 MB JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SO WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

(7/31)THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DURING
THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%),
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, AND ON THE GFS AT
850 MB AS WELL. SO WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(8/1)FRIDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
TROUGH AND A SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND KICKS OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THEN DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO
THE REGION AND DIMINISHES THE RAIN AGAIN. (8/2)SATURDAY...WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MOISTURE INCREASING,
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT
NEARBY, WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING GONE, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AS WELL. (8/3)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SCENARIO BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. (8/4)MONDAY...MODELS ARE
HAVING A DISCREPANCY, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN, AND THE
ECMWF MAINLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OF COURSE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO MVFR UNDER OR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN WITH THE
LACK OF GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JSL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 290352
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
ON THE COOL SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...OUT-AND-IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT AND SOME SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS.  THERE IS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS
WELL ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.  CLOSER TO HOME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERSISTENT
STRATOCUMULUS...SOME OF IT LAKE-AIDED THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
STREAMERS OF DRIZZLE...AND DIURNALLY-AIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER CONFINED TO EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MOST OF
MACKINAC COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTRAPOLATES INTO
NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN
ISSUES GIVEN WEAK FEATURES WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SORT OF A NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK
FEATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PLUS A LITTLE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY) COMBINING TO BRING A MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWER THREAT TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN FLUX HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING...AS STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN LOWER GETS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST BY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD DECK HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR DRIFTS SOUTH.  VORTICITY CENTER HEADING TOWARD ISLE
ROYALE WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...NOT GOING TO RULE OUT THAT IT STILL WON`T HAVE A FEW RAIN
DROPS WITH IT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK TROUGH AT 850/700MB ROTATES IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB.  SO
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE
NIGHT.  DON`T THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS THROUGH THE
STRAITS VICINITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A STUCK UPPER LEVEL LOW...

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE AREA, UNTIL CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. THAT`S
WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF CANADA FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AGAIN. THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED, WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCK WILL LAST A FEW DAYS. SO WITH
THE IN MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...

(7/29)TUESDAY...MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AS IS SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT TO MENTION WITH THE MOISTURE,
THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AT THE VERY LEAST. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THUNDER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE BELOW 30 KNOTS, SO WON`T BE
EXPECTING ANY GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH THESE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAPSE RATES STABILIZE (LIS>0C)
AFTER 00Z, SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE SE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.

(7/30)WEDNESDAY...INHERITED 30 POPS IN E UPPER AND THE SE COUNTIES
OF N LOWER, BUT WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE 500 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO N LOWER BY 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH
THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20-30% NOSING INTO N LOWER AS WELL,
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR NOW AS THE WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE EVENING DRY AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOISTEN "ENOUGH" FOR SHOWERS
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE 500 MB JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SO WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

(7/31)THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DURING
THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%),
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, AND ON THE GFS AT
850 MB AS WELL. SO WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(8/1)FRIDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
TROUGH AND A SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND KICKS OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THEN DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO
THE REGION AND DIMINISHES THE RAIN AGAIN. (8/2)SATURDAY...WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MOISTURE INCREASING,
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT
NEARBY, WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING GONE, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AS WELL. (8/3)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SCENARIO BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. (8/4)MONDAY...MODELS ARE
HAVING A DISCREPANCY, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN, AND THE
ECMWF MAINLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OF COURSE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO MVFR UNDER OR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN WITH THE
LACK OF GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JSL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 290002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
802 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
ON THE COOL SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...OUT-AND-IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT AND SOME SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS.  THERE IS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS
WELL ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.  CLOSER TO HOME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERSISTENT
STRATOCUMULUS...SOME OF IT LAKE-AIDED THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
STREAMERS OF DRIZZLE...AND DIURNALLY-AIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER CONFINED TO EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MOST OF
MACKINAC COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTRAPOLATES INTO
NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN
ISSUES GIVEN WEAK FEATURES WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SORT OF A NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK
FEATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PLUS A LITTLE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY) COMBINING TO BRING A MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWER THREAT TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN FLUX HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING...AS STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN LOWER GETS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST BY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD DECK HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR DRIFTS SOUTH.  VORTICITY CENTER HEADING TOWARD ISLE
ROYALE WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...NOT GOING TO RULE OUT THAT IT STILL WON`T HAVE A FEW RAIN
DROPS WITH IT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK TROUGH AT 850/700MB ROTATES IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB.  SO
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE
NIGHT.  DON`T THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS THROUGH THE
STRAITS VICINITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A STUCK UPPER LEVEL LOW...

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE AREA, UNTIL CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. THAT`S
WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF CANADA FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AGAIN. THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED, WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCK WILL LAST A FEW DAYS. SO WITH
THE IN MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...

(7/29)TUESDAY...MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AS IS SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT TO MENTION WITH THE MOISTURE,
THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AT THE VERY LEAST. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THUNDER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE BELOW 30 KNOTS, SO WON`T BE
EXPECTING ANY GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH THESE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAPSE RATES STABILIZE (LIS>0C)
AFTER 00Z, SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE SE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.

(7/30)WEDNESDAY...INHERITED 30 POPS IN E UPPER AND THE SE COUNTIES
OF N LOWER, BUT WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE 500 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO N LOWER BY 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH
THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20-30% NOSING INTO N LOWER AS WELL,
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR NOW AS THE WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE EVENING DRY AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOISTEN "ENOUGH" FOR SHOWERS
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE 500 MB JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SO WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

(7/31)THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DURING
THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%),
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, AND ON THE GFS AT
850 MB AS WELL. SO WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(8/1)FRIDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
TROUGH AND A SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND KICKS OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THEN DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO
THE REGION AND DIMINISHES THE RAIN AGAIN. (8/2)SATURDAY...WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MOISTURE INCREASING,
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT
NEARBY, WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING GONE, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AS WELL. (8/3)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SCENARIO BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. (8/4)MONDAY...MODELS ARE
HAVING A DISCREPANCY, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN, AND THE
ECMWF MAINLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN WITH THE
LACK OF GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JSL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 290002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
802 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
ON THE COOL SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...OUT-AND-IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT AND SOME SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS.  THERE IS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS
WELL ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.  CLOSER TO HOME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERSISTENT
STRATOCUMULUS...SOME OF IT LAKE-AIDED THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
STREAMERS OF DRIZZLE...AND DIURNALLY-AIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER CONFINED TO EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MOST OF
MACKINAC COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTRAPOLATES INTO
NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN
ISSUES GIVEN WEAK FEATURES WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SORT OF A NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK
FEATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PLUS A LITTLE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY) COMBINING TO BRING A MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWER THREAT TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN FLUX HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING...AS STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN LOWER GETS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST BY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD DECK HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR DRIFTS SOUTH.  VORTICITY CENTER HEADING TOWARD ISLE
ROYALE WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...NOT GOING TO RULE OUT THAT IT STILL WON`T HAVE A FEW RAIN
DROPS WITH IT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK TROUGH AT 850/700MB ROTATES IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB.  SO
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE
NIGHT.  DON`T THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS THROUGH THE
STRAITS VICINITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A STUCK UPPER LEVEL LOW...

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE AREA, UNTIL CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. THAT`S
WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF CANADA FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AGAIN. THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED, WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCK WILL LAST A FEW DAYS. SO WITH
THE IN MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...

(7/29)TUESDAY...MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AS IS SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT TO MENTION WITH THE MOISTURE,
THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AT THE VERY LEAST. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THUNDER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE BELOW 30 KNOTS, SO WON`T BE
EXPECTING ANY GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH THESE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAPSE RATES STABILIZE (LIS>0C)
AFTER 00Z, SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE SE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.

(7/30)WEDNESDAY...INHERITED 30 POPS IN E UPPER AND THE SE COUNTIES
OF N LOWER, BUT WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE 500 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO N LOWER BY 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH
THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20-30% NOSING INTO N LOWER AS WELL,
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR NOW AS THE WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE EVENING DRY AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOISTEN "ENOUGH" FOR SHOWERS
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE 500 MB JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SO WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

(7/31)THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DURING
THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%),
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, AND ON THE GFS AT
850 MB AS WELL. SO WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(8/1)FRIDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
TROUGH AND A SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND KICKS OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THEN DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO
THE REGION AND DIMINISHES THE RAIN AGAIN. (8/2)SATURDAY...WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MOISTURE INCREASING,
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT
NEARBY, WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING GONE, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AS WELL. (8/3)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SCENARIO BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. (8/4)MONDAY...MODELS ARE
HAVING A DISCREPANCY, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN, AND THE
ECMWF MAINLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN WITH THE
LACK OF GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JSL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 281947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
ON THE COOL SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...OUT-AND-IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT AND SOME SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS.  THERE IS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS
WELL ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.  CLOSER TO HOME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERSISTENT
STRATOCUMULUS...SOME OF IT LAKE-AIDED THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
STREAMERS OF DRIZZLE...AND DIURNALLY-AIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER CONFINED TO EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MOST OF
MACKINAC COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTRAPOLATES INTO
NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN
ISSUES GIVEN WEAK FEATURES WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SORT OF A NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK
FEATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PLUS A LITTLE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY) COMBINING TO BRING A MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWER THREAT TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN FLUX HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING...AS STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN LOWER GETS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST BY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD DECK HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR DRIFTS SOUTH.  VORTICITY CENTER HEADING TOWARD ISLE
ROYALE WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...NOT GOING TO RULE OUT THAT IT STILL WON`T HAVE A FEW RAIN
DROPS WITH IT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK TROUGH AT 850/700MB ROTATES IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB.  SO
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE
NIGHT.  DON`T THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS THROUGH THE
STRAITS VICINITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A STUCK UPPER LEVEL LOW...

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE AREA, UNTIL CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. THAT`S
WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF CANADA FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AGAIN. THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED, WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCK WILL LAST A FEW DAYS. SO WITH
THE IN MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...

(7/29)TUESDAY...MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AS IS SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT TO MENTION WITH THE MOISTURE,
THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AT THE VERY LEAST. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THUNDER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE BELOW 30 KNOTS, SO WON`T BE
EXPECTING ANY GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH THESE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAPSE RATES STABILIZE (LIS>0C)
AFTER 00Z, SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE SE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.

(7/30)WEDNESDAY...INHERITED 30 POPS IN E UPPER AND THE SE COUNTIES
OF N LOWER, BUT WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE 500 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO N LOWER BY 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH
THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20-30% NOSING INTO N LOWER AS WELL,
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR NOW AS THE WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE EVENING DRY AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOISTEN "ENOUGH" FOR SHOWERS
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE 500 MB JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SO WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

(7/31)THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DURING
THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%),
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, AND ON THE GFS AT
850 MB AS WELL. SO WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(8/1)FRIDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
TROUGH AND A SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND KICKS OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THEN DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO
THE REGION AND DIMINISHES THE RAIN AGAIN. (8/2)SATURDAY...WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MOISTURE INCREASING,
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT
NEARBY, WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING GONE, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AS WELL. (8/3)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SCENARIO BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. (8/4)MONDAY...MODELS ARE
HAVING A DISCREPANCY, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN, AND THE
ECMWF MAINLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN WITH THE
LACK OF GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...JSL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 281947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
ON THE COOL SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...OUT-AND-IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT AND SOME SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS.  THERE IS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS
WELL ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.  CLOSER TO HOME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERSISTENT
STRATOCUMULUS...SOME OF IT LAKE-AIDED THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
STREAMERS OF DRIZZLE...AND DIURNALLY-AIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER CONFINED TO EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MOST OF
MACKINAC COUNTIES.

DEEP LAYER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTRAPOLATES INTO
NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN
ISSUES GIVEN WEAK FEATURES WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPPING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SORT OF A NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK
FEATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PLUS A LITTLE MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY) COMBINING TO BRING A MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWER THREAT TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN FLUX HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING...AS STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN LOWER GETS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST BY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD DECK HEADING TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR DRIFTS SOUTH.  VORTICITY CENTER HEADING TOWARD ISLE
ROYALE WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...NOT GOING TO RULE OUT THAT IT STILL WON`T HAVE A FEW RAIN
DROPS WITH IT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK TROUGH AT 850/700MB ROTATES IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB.  SO
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE
NIGHT.  DON`T THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE
CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS THROUGH THE
STRAITS VICINITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A STUCK UPPER LEVEL LOW...

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE AREA, UNTIL CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. THAT`S
WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF CANADA FOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AGAIN. THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED, WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCK WILL LAST A FEW DAYS. SO WITH
THE IN MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...

(7/29)TUESDAY...MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AS IS SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT TO MENTION WITH THE MOISTURE,
THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AT THE VERY LEAST. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THUNDER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE BELOW 30 KNOTS, SO WON`T BE
EXPECTING ANY GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH THESE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAPSE RATES STABILIZE (LIS>0C)
AFTER 00Z, SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE SE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
OVERNIGHT DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.

(7/30)WEDNESDAY...INHERITED 30 POPS IN E UPPER AND THE SE COUNTIES
OF N LOWER, BUT WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE 500 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO N LOWER BY 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH
THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20-30% NOSING INTO N LOWER AS WELL,
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR NOW AS THE WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE EVENING DRY AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOISTEN "ENOUGH" FOR SHOWERS
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE 500 MB JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SO WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

(7/31)THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DURING
THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%),
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, AND ON THE GFS AT
850 MB AS WELL. SO WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(8/1)FRIDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
TROUGH AND A SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND KICKS OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THEN DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO
THE REGION AND DIMINISHES THE RAIN AGAIN. (8/2)SATURDAY...WITH THE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MOISTURE INCREASING,
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT
NEARBY, WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING GONE, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AS WELL. (8/3)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SCENARIO BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. (8/4)MONDAY...MODELS ARE
HAVING A DISCREPANCY, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN, AND THE
ECMWF MAINLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN WITH THE
LACK OF GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...JSL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 281757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INVADE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
WERE CONTINUING TO SEE EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. BUT HAVE NO
FEAR...AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RE-MATERIALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE DRASTICALLY INCREASED MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM CAUTIOUSLY LEAVING MAX TEMPS
ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...ANOTHER TOUCH OF EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. WHAT THERE ARE CENTER ON
MARINE SCA HEADLINES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: STRONG CAA WELL UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AT THIS EARLY HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTH
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF VIGOROUS EASTERN LAKES SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM ITSELF
HELPING ESTABLISH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP OVERHEAD TROUGHING...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS LARGE GYRE SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF YESTERDAY NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH SAID CAA ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER STOUT DRY AIR ADVECTION (AS IT OFTEN IS).
TROUGHING...HOWEVER...REMAINS UNSETTLED...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO WEAK IMPULSE MAKING STEADY SOUTH PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LARGER SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BOUT
OF MID SUMMER CHILL TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE AXIS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE TONIGHT.

DETAILS: WELL...AFTER DAYS OF TALKING ABOUT IT...ANOTHER BOUT OF
EARLY FALL-LIKE CHILL HAS ARRIVED. CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. DIURNAL RESPONSE WILL TRY
ITS BEST TO OFFSET...BUT SIMPLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THESE ARE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL...WITH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH. GOOD NEWS IS IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH STRONG CAP UP NEAR
H7 AND DRY LOW LEVELS. NO DOUBT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL
FORM...BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SHALLOW-TOPPED AND SHOWER FREE.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH HEADING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SUBTLE WAVE PULLS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A TOUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH HAS SOME
MERIT GIVEN CURRENT VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WILL TREND TOWARD THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE
DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT GOING QUITE AS CLOUDY AS MOST GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE NIGHT SPRINKLE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUCH LOW POTENTIAL ON WHAT WOULD BE A TRIVIAL
EVENT JUST NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT JULY...

THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL TEND TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...
AS IT FULLY ABSORBS THE UPPER LOW THAT GAVE US SUCH AN EXCITING DAY
YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BACK UP TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD BUT WEAK NW-ERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. THERE TENDS TO BE SOME WEAK TROFFING IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN MI TUESDAY...WHICH IS DISPLACED DOWNSTATE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMP TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TUESDAY...A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PIVOT FROM NORTH OF SUPERIOR TO FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI. DEEP
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL ASSIST THIS VORT IN PRODUCING A RATHER
LARGE MOISTURE PLUME (850-500MB RH MAINLY 75-80 PERCENT). THE
CONTINUED STEEP-ISH LAPSE RATES (700-500MB 6-6.5 C/KM) WILL HELP
SUPPORT 100-300J/KG OF MUCAPE...EVEN IN THE MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING
WILL BOOST THOSE NUMBERS TO 500-700J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST IN
TIME FOR SOME ACTUAL FORCING. SO POPS NEEDED IN MOST AREAS MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MI. LAKES MI AND SUPERIOR WILL ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE SMALLISH
RAIN SHADOWS.

WILL REDUCE (THOUGH NOT ELIMINATE) POPS IN THE MORNING...AND REMOVE
AM THUNDER. WILL BOOST NE LOWER TO LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL HAIL COULD BE RELATIVELY COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...SHRA THREAT MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN SE
SECTIONS...BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...LEFTOVER SHRA FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE IN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. SOME REMNANTS OF THESE COULD
CONCEIVABLY POKE INTO EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BIG BALL OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST SKIRTING BE N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS DO NOT NEED TO BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
NEEDED THRU THE DAY IN EASTERN UPPER...CLOSEST TO THAT CHILLY LOW TO
THE NNE. ALSO KEPT SOME PM POPS IN FAR SE SECTIONS...FURTHEST AWAY
FORM LAKE SHADOWING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS OTHERWISE NOT ESPECIALLY
MOIST.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NE FINALLY EJECTS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THOUGH A RATHER SHARP TROF CONTINUES TO LINGER BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION (OF COURSE IT DOES). THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO SLOWLY MODERATE...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR US TO APPROACH
NORMAL. AND THAT DOES LEAVE US WITH A PLEASANT ENOUGH WEEKEND AHEAD.

AS FOR PRECIP...STAYING BENEATH TROFFING ALOFT POTENTIALLY KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR DIURNAL PRECIP. THIS MAY GET SOME SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE
ON FRIDAY...WHEN EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EXIT...THE TRAILING
TROF MAKES A BIT OF A PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ345-
     346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 281757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INVADE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
WERE CONTINUING TO SEE EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. BUT HAVE NO
FEAR...AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RE-MATERIALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE DRASTICALLY INCREASED MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM CAUTIOUSLY LEAVING MAX TEMPS
ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...ANOTHER TOUCH OF EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. WHAT THERE ARE CENTER ON
MARINE SCA HEADLINES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: STRONG CAA WELL UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AT THIS EARLY HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTH
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF VIGOROUS EASTERN LAKES SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM ITSELF
HELPING ESTABLISH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP OVERHEAD TROUGHING...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS LARGE GYRE SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF YESTERDAY NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH SAID CAA ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER STOUT DRY AIR ADVECTION (AS IT OFTEN IS).
TROUGHING...HOWEVER...REMAINS UNSETTLED...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO WEAK IMPULSE MAKING STEADY SOUTH PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LARGER SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BOUT
OF MID SUMMER CHILL TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE AXIS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE TONIGHT.

DETAILS: WELL...AFTER DAYS OF TALKING ABOUT IT...ANOTHER BOUT OF
EARLY FALL-LIKE CHILL HAS ARRIVED. CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. DIURNAL RESPONSE WILL TRY
ITS BEST TO OFFSET...BUT SIMPLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THESE ARE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL...WITH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH. GOOD NEWS IS IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH STRONG CAP UP NEAR
H7 AND DRY LOW LEVELS. NO DOUBT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL
FORM...BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SHALLOW-TOPPED AND SHOWER FREE.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH HEADING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SUBTLE WAVE PULLS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A TOUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH HAS SOME
MERIT GIVEN CURRENT VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WILL TREND TOWARD THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE
DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT GOING QUITE AS CLOUDY AS MOST GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE NIGHT SPRINKLE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUCH LOW POTENTIAL ON WHAT WOULD BE A TRIVIAL
EVENT JUST NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT JULY...

THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL TEND TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...
AS IT FULLY ABSORBS THE UPPER LOW THAT GAVE US SUCH AN EXCITING DAY
YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BACK UP TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD BUT WEAK NW-ERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. THERE TENDS TO BE SOME WEAK TROFFING IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN MI TUESDAY...WHICH IS DISPLACED DOWNSTATE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMP TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TUESDAY...A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PIVOT FROM NORTH OF SUPERIOR TO FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI. DEEP
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL ASSIST THIS VORT IN PRODUCING A RATHER
LARGE MOISTURE PLUME (850-500MB RH MAINLY 75-80 PERCENT). THE
CONTINUED STEEP-ISH LAPSE RATES (700-500MB 6-6.5 C/KM) WILL HELP
SUPPORT 100-300J/KG OF MUCAPE...EVEN IN THE MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING
WILL BOOST THOSE NUMBERS TO 500-700J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST IN
TIME FOR SOME ACTUAL FORCING. SO POPS NEEDED IN MOST AREAS MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MI. LAKES MI AND SUPERIOR WILL ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE SMALLISH
RAIN SHADOWS.

WILL REDUCE (THOUGH NOT ELIMINATE) POPS IN THE MORNING...AND REMOVE
AM THUNDER. WILL BOOST NE LOWER TO LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL HAIL COULD BE RELATIVELY COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...SHRA THREAT MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN SE
SECTIONS...BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...LEFTOVER SHRA FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE IN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. SOME REMNANTS OF THESE COULD
CONCEIVABLY POKE INTO EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BIG BALL OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST SKIRTING BE N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS DO NOT NEED TO BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
NEEDED THRU THE DAY IN EASTERN UPPER...CLOSEST TO THAT CHILLY LOW TO
THE NNE. ALSO KEPT SOME PM POPS IN FAR SE SECTIONS...FURTHEST AWAY
FORM LAKE SHADOWING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS OTHERWISE NOT ESPECIALLY
MOIST.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NE FINALLY EJECTS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THOUGH A RATHER SHARP TROF CONTINUES TO LINGER BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION (OF COURSE IT DOES). THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO SLOWLY MODERATE...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR US TO APPROACH
NORMAL. AND THAT DOES LEAVE US WITH A PLEASANT ENOUGH WEEKEND AHEAD.

AS FOR PRECIP...STAYING BENEATH TROFFING ALOFT POTENTIALLY KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR DIURNAL PRECIP. THIS MAY GET SOME SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE
ON FRIDAY...WHEN EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EXIT...THE TRAILING
TROF MAKES A BIT OF A PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ345-
     346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 281118
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
718 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INVADE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
WERE CONTINUING TO SEE EROSION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. BUT HAVE NO
FEAR...AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RE-MATERIALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE DRASTICALLY INCREASED MORNING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM CAUTIOUSLY LEAVING MAX TEMPS
ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...ANOTHER TOUCH OF EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. WHAT THERE ARE CENTER ON
MARINE SCA HEADLINES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: STRONG CAA WELL UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AT THIS EARLY HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTH
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF VIGOROUS EASTERN LAKES SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM ITSELF
HELPING ESTABLISH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP OVERHEAD TROUGHING...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS LARGE GYRE SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF YESTERDAY NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH SAID CAA ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER STOUT DRY AIR ADVECTION (AS IT OFTEN IS).
TROUGHING...HOWEVER...REMAINS UNSETTLED...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO WEAK IMPULSE MAKING STEADY SOUTH PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LARGER SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BOUT
OF MID SUMMER CHILL TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE AXIS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE TONIGHT.

DETAILS: WELL...AFTER DAYS OF TALKING ABOUT IT...ANOTHER BOUT OF
EARLY FALL-LIKE CHILL HAS ARRIVED. CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. DIURNAL RESPONSE WILL TRY
ITS BEST TO OFFSET...BUT SIMPLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THESE ARE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL...WITH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH. GOOD NEWS IS IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH STRONG CAP UP NEAR
H7 AND DRY LOW LEVELS. NO DOUBT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL
FORM...BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SHALLOW-TOPPED AND SHOWER FREE.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH HEADING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SUBTLE WAVE PULLS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A TOUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH HAS SOME
MERIT GIVEN CURRENT VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WILL TREND TOWARD THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE
DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT GOING QUITE AS CLOUDY AS MOST GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE NIGHT SPRINKLE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUCH LOW POTENTIAL ON WHAT WOULD BE A TRIVIAL
EVENT JUST NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT JULY...

THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL TEND TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...
AS IT FULLY ABSORBS THE UPPER LOW THAT GAVE US SUCH AN EXCITING DAY
YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BACK UP TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD BUT WEAK NW-ERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. THERE TENDS TO BE SOME WEAK TROFFING IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN MI TUESDAY...WHICH IS DISPLACED DOWNSTATE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMP TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TUESDAY...A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PIVOT FROM NORTH OF SUPERIOR TO FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI. DEEP
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL ASSIST THIS VORT IN PRODUCING A RATHER
LARGE MOISTURE PLUME (850-500MB RH MAINLY 75-80 PERCENT). THE
CONTINUED STEEP-ISH LAPSE RATES (700-500MB 6-6.5 C/KM) WILL HELP
SUPPORT 100-300J/KG OF MUCAPE...EVEN IN THE MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING
WILL BOOST THOSE NUMBERS TO 500-700J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST IN
TIME FOR SOME ACTUAL FORCING. SO POPS NEEDED IN MOST AREAS MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MI. LAKES MI AND SUPERIOR WILL ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE SMALLISH
RAIN SHADOWS.

WILL REDUCE (THOUGH NOT ELIMINATE) POPS IN THE MORNING...AND REMOVE
AM THUNDER. WILL BOOST NE LOWER TO LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL HAIL COULD BE RELATIVELY COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...SHRA THREAT MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN SE
SECTIONS...BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...LEFTOVER SHRA FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE IN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. SOME REMNANTS OF THESE COULD
CONCEIVABLY POKE INTO EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BIG BALL OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST SKIRTING BE N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS DO NOT NEED TO BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
NEEDED THRU THE DAY IN EASTERN UPPER...CLOSEST TO THAT CHILLY LOW TO
THE NNE. ALSO KEPT SOME PM POPS IN FAR SE SECTIONS...FURTHEST AWAY
FORM LAKE SHADOWING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS OTHERWISE NOT ESPECIALLY
MOIST.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NE FINALLY EJECTS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THOUGH A RATHER SHARP TROF CONTINUES TO LINGER BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION (OF COURSE IT DOES). THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO SLOWLY MODERATE...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR US TO APPROACH
NORMAL. AND THAT DOES LEAVE US WITH A PLEASANT ENOUGH WEEKEND AHEAD.

AS FOR PRECIP...STAYING BENEATH TROFFING ALOFT POTENTIALLY KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR DIURNAL PRECIP. THIS MAY GET SOME SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE
ON FRIDAY...WHEN EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EXIT...THE TRAILING
TROF MAKES A BIT OF A PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT APN/TVC/MBL. OTHERWISE
VFR.

COOL AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION...BEHIND LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY SEEN THIS MORNING AT APN/TVC/MBL. WILL TAKE
SEVERAL HOURS FOR A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING TO ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS TODAY...LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 280704
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...ANOTHER TOUCH OF EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. WHAT THERE ARE CENTER ON
MARINE SCA HEADLINES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: STRONG CAA WELL UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AT THIS EARLY HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTH
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF VIGOROUS EASTERN LAKES SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM ITSELF
HELPING ESTABLISH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP OVERHEAD TROUGHING...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS LARGE GYRE SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF YESTERDAY NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH SAID CAA ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER STOUT DRY AIR ADVECTION (AS IT OFTEN IS).
TROUGHING...HOWEVER...REMAINS UNSETTLED...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO WEAK IMPULSE MAKING STEADY SOUTH PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LARGER SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BOUT
OF MID SUMMER CHILL TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE AXIS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE TONIGHT.

DETAILS: WELL...AFTER DAYS OF TALKING ABOUT IT...ANOTHER BOUT OF
EARLY FALL-LIKE CHILL HAS ARRIVED. CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. DIURNAL RESPONSE WILL TRY
ITS BEST TO OFFSET...BUT SIMPLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THESE ARE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL...WITH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH. GOOD NEWS IS IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH STRONG CAP UP NEAR
H7 AND DRY LOW LEVELS. NO DOUBT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL
FORM...BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SHALLOW-TOPPED AND SHOWER FREE.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH HEADING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SUBTLE WAVE PULLS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A TOUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH HAS SOME
MERIT GIVEN CURRENT VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WILL TREND TOWARD THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE
DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT GOING QUITE AS CLOUDY AS MOST GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE NIGHT SPRINKLE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUCH LOW POTENTIAL ON WHAT WOULD BE A TRIVIAL
EVENT JUST NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT JULY...

THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL TEND TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...
AS IT FULLY ABSORBS THE UPPER LOW THAT GAVE US SUCH AN EXCITING DAY
YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BACK UP TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD BUT WEAK NW-ERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. THERE TENDS TO BE SOME WEAK TROFFING IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN MI TUESDAY...WHICH IS DISPLACED DOWNSTATE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMP TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TUESDAY...A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PIVOT FROM NORTH OF SUPERIOR TO FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI. DEEP
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL ASSIST THIS VORT IN PRODUCING A RATHER
LARGE MOISTURE PLUME (850-500MB RH MAINLY 75-80 PERCENT). THE
CONTINUED STEEP-ISH LAPSE RATES (700-500MB 6-6.5 C/KM) WILL HELP
SUPPORT 100-300J/KG OF MUCAPE...EVEN IN THE MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING
WILL BOOST THOSE NUMBERS TO 500-700J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST IN
TIME FOR SOME ACTUAL FORCING. SO POPS NEEDED IN MOST AREAS MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MI. LAKES MI AND SUPERIOR WILL ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE SMALLISH
RAIN SHADOWS.

WILL REDUCE (THOUGH NOT ELIMINATE) POPS IN THE MORNING...AND REMOVE
AM THUNDER. WILL BOOST NE LOWER TO LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL HAIL COULD BE RELATIVELY COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...SHRA THREAT MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN SE
SECTIONS...BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...LEFTOVER SHRA FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE IN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. SOME REMNANTS OF THESE COULD
CONCEIVABLY POKE INTO EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BIG BALL OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST SKIRTING BE N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS DO NOT NEED TO BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
NEEDED THRU THE DAY IN EASTERN UPPER...CLOSEST TO THAT CHILLY LOW TO
THE NNE. ALSO KEPT SOME PM POPS IN FAR SE SECTIONS...FURTHEST AWAY
FORM LAKE SHADOWING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS OTHERWISE NOT ESPECIALLY
MOIST.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NE FINALLY EJECTS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THOUGH A RATHER SHARP TROF CONTINUES TO LINGER BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION (OF COURSE IT DOES). THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO SLOWLY MODERATE...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR US TO APPROACH
NORMAL. AND THAT DOES LEAVE US WITH A PLEASANT ENOUGH WEEKEND AHEAD.

AS FOR PRECIP...STAYING BENEATH TROFFING ALOFT POTENTIALLY KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR DIURNAL PRECIP. THIS MAY GET SOME SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE
ON FRIDAY...WHEN EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EXIT...THE TRAILING
TROF MAKES A BIT OF A PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR VSBYS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 280704
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER ON THE COOL
SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...ANOTHER TOUCH OF EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. WHAT THERE ARE CENTER ON
MARINE SCA HEADLINES.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: STRONG CAA WELL UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AT THIS EARLY HOUR...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTH
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF VIGOROUS EASTERN LAKES SHORTWAVE. SYSTEM ITSELF
HELPING ESTABLISH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP OVERHEAD TROUGHING...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS LARGE GYRE SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OF YESTERDAY NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH SAID CAA ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER STOUT DRY AIR ADVECTION (AS IT OFTEN IS).
TROUGHING...HOWEVER...REMAINS UNSETTLED...WITH ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO WEAK IMPULSE MAKING STEADY SOUTH PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. LARGER SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BOUT
OF MID SUMMER CHILL TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME LATE NIGHT
LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE AXIS DROPS FURTHER SOUTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT. ACCESSING RAIN CHANCES VERY LATE TONIGHT.

DETAILS: WELL...AFTER DAYS OF TALKING ABOUT IT...ANOTHER BOUT OF
EARLY FALL-LIKE CHILL HAS ARRIVED. CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. DIURNAL RESPONSE WILL TRY
ITS BEST TO OFFSET...BUT SIMPLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THESE ARE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE
CHILL...WITH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MPH. GOOD NEWS IS IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...WITH STRONG CAP UP NEAR
H7 AND DRY LOW LEVELS. NO DOUBT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL
FORM...BUT THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SHALLOW-TOPPED AND SHOWER FREE.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH HEADING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SUBTLE WAVE PULLS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A TOUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH HAS SOME
MERIT GIVEN CURRENT VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WILL TREND TOWARD THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE
DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH NOT GOING QUITE AS CLOUDY AS MOST GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE NIGHT SPRINKLE
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT SUCH LOW POTENTIAL ON WHAT WOULD BE A TRIVIAL
EVENT JUST NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT JULY...

THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL TEND TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...
AS IT FULLY ABSORBS THE UPPER LOW THAT GAVE US SUCH AN EXCITING DAY
YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BACK UP TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD BUT WEAK NW-ERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE. THERE TENDS TO BE SOME WEAK TROFFING IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN MI TUESDAY...WHICH IS DISPLACED DOWNSTATE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMP TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TUESDAY...A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE LOW IS PROGGED TO
PIVOT FROM NORTH OF SUPERIOR TO FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI. DEEP
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL ASSIST THIS VORT IN PRODUCING A RATHER
LARGE MOISTURE PLUME (850-500MB RH MAINLY 75-80 PERCENT). THE
CONTINUED STEEP-ISH LAPSE RATES (700-500MB 6-6.5 C/KM) WILL HELP
SUPPORT 100-300J/KG OF MUCAPE...EVEN IN THE MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING
WILL BOOST THOSE NUMBERS TO 500-700J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON...JUST IN
TIME FOR SOME ACTUAL FORCING. SO POPS NEEDED IN MOST AREAS MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MI. LAKES MI AND SUPERIOR WILL ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE SMALLISH
RAIN SHADOWS.

WILL REDUCE (THOUGH NOT ELIMINATE) POPS IN THE MORNING...AND REMOVE
AM THUNDER. WILL BOOST NE LOWER TO LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL HAIL COULD BE RELATIVELY COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...SHRA THREAT MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN SE
SECTIONS...BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...LEFTOVER SHRA FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE IN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. SOME REMNANTS OF THESE COULD
CONCEIVABLY POKE INTO EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL
NOT MENTION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BIG BALL OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST SKIRTING BE N AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS DO NOT NEED TO BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY DO APPEAR
NEEDED THRU THE DAY IN EASTERN UPPER...CLOSEST TO THAT CHILLY LOW TO
THE NNE. ALSO KEPT SOME PM POPS IN FAR SE SECTIONS...FURTHEST AWAY
FORM LAKE SHADOWING IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS OTHERWISE NOT ESPECIALLY
MOIST.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MAX TEMPS MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NE FINALLY EJECTS FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THOUGH A RATHER SHARP TROF CONTINUES TO LINGER BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION (OF COURSE IT DOES). THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO SLOWLY MODERATE...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR US TO APPROACH
NORMAL. AND THAT DOES LEAVE US WITH A PLEASANT ENOUGH WEEKEND AHEAD.

AS FOR PRECIP...STAYING BENEATH TROFFING ALOFT POTENTIALLY KEEPS THE
DOOR OPEN FOR DIURNAL PRECIP. THIS MAY GET SOME SYNOPTIC ASSISTANCE
ON FRIDAY...WHEN EVEN AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO EXIT...THE TRAILING
TROF MAKES A BIT OF A PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR VSBYS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 280519
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR VSBYS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT








000
FXUS63 KAPX 280519
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SCT/BKN LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR VSBYS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KAPX 272321
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THRU
00Z TUESDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SLIDE THRU
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KAPX 272321
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THRU
00Z TUESDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SLIDE THRU
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT








000
FXUS63 KAPX 271942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT







000
FXUS63 KAPX 271942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMING ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
IMPROVEMENT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9PM
WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND/TOR THREAT.  PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK AT WATER VAPOR
SAYS IT ALL WITH BOWLING BALL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QG FORCING AHEAD OF IT INTERACTING WITH
PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG INSTABILITY /COURTESY OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS/
TO PROVIDE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY.  DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS THAT ARE NOW EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PATCHES OF CLEARING ALONG-SOUTH OF M-72 THAT
CONTINUES TO CAUSE THIS CONVECTION TO PULSE BACK UP AT TIMES /SEE
STORM NEAR TVC/. SOME WEAK LLEVEL TURNING OF THE FLOW HAS ALLOWED
LLEVEL ROTATION FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED...WITH A LEGITIMATE TOR THREAT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLEVEL TURNING.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUSY AFTERNOON AT THE WEATHER
OFFICE...BUT THREAT IS NOW TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY NORTHEAST
LOWER AS SUPERCELLS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE.
STILL..PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES TO THE NORTH OF THIS.
APX 88D CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE-INDUCED
SHOWERS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WHICH SHOULD
POSITION IT NEAR THE STRAITS BY 00Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z AND THEN CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
/PARTICULARLY ALOFT/ NOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO SINK SOUTH OVER
THE REGION.  THE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BOTH THESE TRENDS CONSPIRING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM.
BEYOND THIS...IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALOFT /SEE WV IMAGERY NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

FOG: GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TODAY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SUCH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
AND ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING...BUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS: BECOMING NORTH 5-10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

OVERVIEW...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHINESS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
POSITIVE PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN CREATES
HIGHER THAN NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR
RESIDING IN CANADA TO PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ARE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BY ANY MEANS BE A WASHOUT.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH BASE POSSIBLY MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...WHICH WOULD IN TURN BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM H8 TEMPS FROM 4-8C TO FINALLY 10C AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30
MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHINESS STILL OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...BUT STARTING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
TIME AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN...WHAT WILL HOPEFULLY BE A WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEARING NORMAL. LOWS THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IN
THE 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN...BUT LACK ANY CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN IT/S WAKE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING CONDITIONS BRING IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE DAY
MONDAY.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR/MARGINAL MVFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH ALL VFR CONDITIONS TAKING OVER TOWARDS
00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORING.

WINDS: VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING 5-10KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE MORNING ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO 10G20KTS BY LATE MORNING.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT APN THROUGH 9PM...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE TVC/PLN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AT APN
DUE TO HAIL/STRONG WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT-MONDAY...

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED TO THE LAKE HURON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR
THE DAY MONDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE NEARSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS...WINDS/WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FOG: MARINE FOG CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH.

THUNDERSTORMS: BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LAKE
HURON WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER ENDS THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...TL/SR
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT








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