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000
FXUS63 KAPX 202311
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
711 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A GRADUAL END OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...

OVERVIEW: VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS NRN
LAKE HURON. SECONDARY HEATING INDUCED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SOUPY AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...HAS LEAD TO SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE
LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS HEATING ENDS AND INLAND
CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. BUT GIVING THIS ENVIRONMENT...I CAN
ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN
LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING
OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO END. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS/SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

OVERVIEW...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS GENERATED
CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A THERMAL RIDGE OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO
NORMAL...EVEN SURPASSING 80 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SLEEPING CONDITIONS WON/T BE THE BEST...WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH VERY HUMID
NIGHTS.

THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOST OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHERE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY SUFFICE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...CONFINING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL RIDGE LIFTING A LITTLE MORE NORTH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...INCREASING THE RISK FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR VERY SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NUDGED POPS AND QPF TO BEGIN TO INDICATE
THIS. CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THOUGHTS...BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEVER APPEARS TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WON/T SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY/S PROFILES APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE AND SATURDAY IS MORE OF THE NORMAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. SO...THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL FRIDAY...BUT
SATURDAY IS MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS REACHING IN EXCESS OF 16 KFT. ALSO WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASING...CAPPING IS MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY.
DON`T FORESEE ANY WIND REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA...WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR REMAINING VERY LIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...LEFT OVER CRUD
FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S CONVECTION ELSEWHERE MAY INHIBIT THE
DESTABILIZATION THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
CONVECTION TO EVEN BE REALIZED.

REST OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS
ARE THERE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN BEFORE 03Z THIS
EVENING. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN FOR
THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE THRU THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. FOG WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THIS FOG MAY BE DENSE
AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THEN SPREAD OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONE FOOT OR LESS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...TL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 202311
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
711 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A GRADUAL END OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...

OVERVIEW: VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS NRN
LAKE HURON. SECONDARY HEATING INDUCED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SOUPY AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...HAS LEAD TO SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE
LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS HEATING ENDS AND INLAND
CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. BUT GIVING THIS ENVIRONMENT...I CAN
ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN
LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING
OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO END. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS/SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

OVERVIEW...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS GENERATED
CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A THERMAL RIDGE OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO
NORMAL...EVEN SURPASSING 80 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SLEEPING CONDITIONS WON/T BE THE BEST...WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH VERY HUMID
NIGHTS.

THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOST OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHERE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY SUFFICE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...CONFINING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL RIDGE LIFTING A LITTLE MORE NORTH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...INCREASING THE RISK FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR VERY SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NUDGED POPS AND QPF TO BEGIN TO INDICATE
THIS. CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THOUGHTS...BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEVER APPEARS TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WON/T SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY/S PROFILES APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE AND SATURDAY IS MORE OF THE NORMAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. SO...THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL FRIDAY...BUT
SATURDAY IS MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS REACHING IN EXCESS OF 16 KFT. ALSO WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASING...CAPPING IS MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY.
DON`T FORESEE ANY WIND REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA...WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR REMAINING VERY LIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...LEFT OVER CRUD
FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S CONVECTION ELSEWHERE MAY INHIBIT THE
DESTABILIZATION THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
CONVECTION TO EVEN BE REALIZED.

REST OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS
ARE THERE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN BEFORE 03Z THIS
EVENING. STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN FOR
THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER AFTER
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE THRU THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. FOG WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THIS FOG MAY BE DENSE
AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THEN SPREAD OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONE FOOT OR LESS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...TL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 201955
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A GRADUAL END OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING...

OVERVIEW: VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS NRN
LAKE HURON. SECONDARY HEATING INDUCED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SOUPY AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...HAS LEAD TO SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE
LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS HEATING ENDS AND INLAND
CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. BUT GIVING THIS ENVIRONMENT...I CAN
ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN
LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING
OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO END. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS/SOUPY AIRMASS...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

OVERVIEW...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS GENERATED
CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A THERMAL RIDGE OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO
NORMAL...EVEN SURPASSING 80 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SLEEPING CONDITIONS WON/T BE THE BEST...WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH VERY HUMID
NIGHTS.

THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOST OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OUR FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHERE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE MAY SUFFICE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...CONFINING ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THAT AREA FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL RIDGE LIFTING A LITTLE MORE NORTH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...INCREASING THE RISK FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR VERY SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NUDGED POPS AND QPF TO BEGIN TO INDICATE
THIS. CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THOUGHTS...BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEVER APPEARS TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WON/T SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY/S PROFILES APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE AND SATURDAY IS MORE OF THE NORMAL NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. SO...THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL FRIDAY...BUT
SATURDAY IS MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS REACHING IN EXCESS OF 16 KFT. ALSO WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASING...CAPPING IS MORE OF A PROBLEM SATURDAY.
DON`T FORESEE ANY WIND REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA...WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR REMAINING VERY LIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...LEFT OVER CRUD
FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT/S CONVECTION ELSEWHERE MAY INHIBIT THE
DESTABILIZATION THAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
CONVECTION TO EVEN BE REALIZED.

REST OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH INDICATIONS
ARE THERE FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE AT APN. SHOWERS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. BUT LOW CIGS AND FOG (IFR) WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS) THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDER
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. FOG WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THIS FOG MAY BE DENSE
AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THEN SPREAD OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONE FOOT OR LESS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...TL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 201650
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1250 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE STRAITS EVIDENCED BY
NARROW BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DOWN
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE SOUPY AIRMASS.

THIS AFTERNOON...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE STRAITS
INTO NRN LAKE HURON AND LIKELY KEEP PERSISTENT SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THAT AREA ALONG THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE AXIS...
PARTICULARLY AS WE GET SOME HEATING/INSTABILITY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST AND
RESULT IN A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS OUT THERE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND COOL-ISH AIR
ALOFT...EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 500-1000
J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE AND BUBBLE UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY
WHERE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOW (STRONGER HEATING)
AND WHERE HEATING INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THIS PLAY OUT ON RADAR.

WITH WEAK FLOW...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...DOMINATED
BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS
HEATING ENDS AND INLAND CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. GIVING THIS
ENVIRONMENT...I CAN ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN
UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO
END.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE AT APN. SHOWERS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. BUT LOW CIGS AND FOG (IFR) WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS) THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 201650
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1250 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE STRAITS EVIDENCED BY
NARROW BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DOWN
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE SOUPY AIRMASS.

THIS AFTERNOON...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE STRAITS
INTO NRN LAKE HURON AND LIKELY KEEP PERSISTENT SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THAT AREA ALONG THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE AXIS...
PARTICULARLY AS WE GET SOME HEATING/INSTABILITY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST AND
RESULT IN A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS OUT THERE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND COOL-ISH AIR
ALOFT...EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 500-1000
J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE AND BUBBLE UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY
WHERE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOW (STRONGER HEATING)
AND WHERE HEATING INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THIS PLAY OUT ON RADAR.

WITH WEAK FLOW...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...DOMINATED
BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS
HEATING ENDS AND INLAND CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. GIVING THIS
ENVIRONMENT...I CAN ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN
UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO
END.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE AT APN. SHOWERS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. BUT LOW CIGS AND FOG (IFR) WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10 KNOTS) THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE









000
FXUS63 KAPX 201543
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE STRAITS EVIDENCED BY
NARROW BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DOWN
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE SOUPY AIRMASS.

THIS AFTERNOON...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE STRAITS
INTO NRN LAKE HURON AND LIKELY KEEP PERSISTENT SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THAT AREA ALONG THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE AXIS...
PARTICULARLY AS WE GET SOME HEATING/INSTABILITY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST AND
RESULT IN A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS OUT THERE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND COOL-ISH AIR
ALOFT...EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 500-1000
J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE AND BUBBLE UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY
WHERE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOW (STRONGER HEATING)
AND WHERE HEATING INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THIS PLAY OUT ON RADAR.

WITH WEAK FLOW...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...DOMINATED
BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS
HEATING ENDS AND INLAND CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. GIVING THIS
ENVIRONMENT...I CAN ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN
UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO
END.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL. FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 201543
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1143 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE STRAITS EVIDENCED BY
NARROW BAND OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY ALONG
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DOWN
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE SOUPY AIRMASS.

THIS AFTERNOON...STACKED LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE STRAITS
INTO NRN LAKE HURON AND LIKELY KEEP PERSISTENT SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THAT AREA ALONG THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE AXIS...
PARTICULARLY AS WE GET SOME HEATING/INSTABILITY AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST AND
RESULT IN A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS OUT THERE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND COOL-ISH AIR
ALOFT...EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 500-1000
J/KG SKINNY MLCAPE AND BUBBLE UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN TOWARD SAGINAW BAY
WHERE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOW (STRONGER HEATING)
AND WHERE HEATING INDUCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THIS PLAY OUT ON RADAR.

WITH WEAK FLOW...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...DOMINATED
BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY RUN IT/S COURSE AS
HEATING ENDS AND INLAND CONVERGENCE SLOWLY WEAKENS. GIVING THIS
ENVIRONMENT...I CAN ENVISION ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN
UPPER/NE LOWER MICHIGAN LINGERING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE (HOPEFULLY) ENDING OVERNIGHT. BUT...HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS VERY SLOW TO
END.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL. FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 201052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL. FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 201052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL. FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE









000
FXUS63 KAPX 200816
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL CENTER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST...
AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 200816
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...MAINLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
MORE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A DEEP/STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...1005MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN
EAST-WEST FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW DOWN
THE AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EAST OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CHANNEL AND INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN CONTRIBUTING TO A DEARTH
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF SMALL VORTICITY
CENTERS SPINNING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...NARROW
AXIS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
PLETHORA OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN CYCLONIC
CENTER.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH
SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THEM. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME FOG HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AS WELL...A LITTLE THICKER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE STRATUS IS INTERSECTING THE HILLTOPS.  THINK PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL START OUT SCATTERED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.  ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND EVEN JUST SOME
MODEST HEATING SHOULD GENERATE A BIT OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SO POSSIBILITY FOR AN EXPANSION
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT/NARROW CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS.  ALSO EXPECTING A MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHING OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS
EVENING (AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...TYPICAL LATE AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY THURSDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS NOT
LOOKING TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A PATTERN NOT SEEN VERY MUCH THIS SUMMER SHOULD
TAKE SHAPE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...CONSISTING OF
AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGHING AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
RIGHT ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL GET SQUEEZED WEST
OF RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COUPLE OF
WEAKER HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVE RIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT OF SORTS (DELINEATION
BETWEEN THE TRUE SUMMERTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY/INSTABILITY AND MORE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCED "COOLER" CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED TO WAVER
SOMEWHERE NEARBY...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION OF THE OVERALL
UPPER FLOW SUGGESTIVE THAT SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY TEASE
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT VARIOUS TIMES. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK...THE
WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EASE EASTWARD...SENDING A COLD FRONT
IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS FAR FROM HIGH AT THIS POINT
IN TIME.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: NOT EXACTLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE I WOULD
LIKE THIS FAR IN...WITH PLENTY OF QUESTION REVOLVING AROUND JUST HOW
FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT. SIMPLE MECHANISM OF BUILDING
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE A RATHER TIGHT THERMAL/THETA-E
GRADIENT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH TIME...WITH THIS
FEATURE TRYING DESPERATELY TO LIFT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY
FRIDAY. AS WAS DISCUSSED SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THURSDAY ITSELF MAY WELL
TURN OUT TO BE DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS A NOTABLE INFLUX OF DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE COURTESY OF WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
SLIVER OF LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THAT MAY WORK WELL
WITH WEAKISH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION KICKING IN DOWN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE LATE DAY.

HAVE TO HONESTLY SAY THAT I`M NOT TERRIBLY THRILLED BY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THEREAFTER AS THE SETUP JUST DOESN`T SCREAM FOR RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. FOR ONE...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS FLATTER THAN
DESIRED...FAVORING NOCTURNAL CRANKING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO
OUR SOUTH...WHILE WE ALSO SIT ON THE SLACKER SIDE OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY TO RESIDE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WON`T DO ANYTHING TO LIFT IT NORTH IN THE
FACE OF ANY LACKING STRONGER UPPER WAVES TO OUR WEST...SUGGESTING A
MUCH MORE CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION FOR CONVECTION RESIDING THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A BIT BEEFY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
HEAT/INSTABILITY AND STRONGER JET DYNAMICS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY AT
TIMES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP PLOTS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THIS
IDEA FOR DAYS...SUGGESTING OUR FORECAST IS PROBABLY WAY TOO WET FOR
MOST PERIODS. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY (THIS IS CONVECTION
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT AFTER ALL)...DO HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALLER
CHANCE MENTION THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES (IF YOU CAN
CALL THEM THAT) RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SOUTH OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH EMERGES
ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SETUP SHOULD ATTEMPT TO LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT (TIMING STILL IN QUESTION)...WITH RESULTANT BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THAT FEATURE. SAID ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH ONTARIO BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME REAL AUGUST HEAT AS STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING (H8 TEMPS AROUND
16-18C PER CONSENSUS) BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. OF
COURSE...ONE POORLY PLACED ROUND OF RAIN WOULD EASILY SPOIL THE
FUN...BUT FOR THE WARM WEATHER FOLKS...THIS ONE AT LEAST HAS SOME
PROMISE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AGAIN
ATTEMPTS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION. AT SOME POINT...THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GET PUNTED EASTWARD...DRIVING A
ROUND LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO LIKELY
FORCING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. SAID UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE NOSING INTO A STRONGLY RIDGED ENVIRONMENT...AND SUSPECT SOME
FURTHER SLOWDOWNS ARE IMMINENT WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING. NONETHELESS...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE FOUND DURING THIS STRETCH BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER WEATHER ROLLS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL CENTER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST...
AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS TODAY...YIELDING A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES...WITH A SIMILAR SLACK PRESSURE
GRADIENT DELIVERING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

IT TOOK TIL ALMOST 8 PM...BUT CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW
LOWER...ALMOST TO KALKASKA. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD ABOUT 700J/KG OF
SKINNY SBCAPE. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY
PEAKED AS THAT INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE.

EARLIER ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM...ALMOST COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500MB LOW...IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND APPROACH EASTERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...500MB TEMPS WILL ONLY LOWER 1C.
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE BACK IN WESTERN UPPER THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW...BRINGING A SHOT OF DPVA INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
(ESPECIALLY NW LOWER) OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING
MOIST AND THE MID LEVELS SEEING A NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE...THE WINDOW IS OPEN FOR SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...ANYWHERE. BUT THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY NOT ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE TO LET ONGOING CONVECTION PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN WE SHOULD ONLY NEED RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANCE POPS (30-40) FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY EXTENSIVE FROM THE STRAITS AREA NORTH.
WON/T TAKE MUCH LOWERING TO RESULT IN FOG. MEANWHILE...PARTIAL
CLEARING NOW IN NW/N CENTRAL LOWER WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS.
THAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL CENTER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST...AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

IT TOOK TIL ALMOST 8 PM...BUT CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW
LOWER...ALMOST TO KALKASKA. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD ABOUT 700J/KG OF
SKINNY SBCAPE. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY
PEAKED AS THAT INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE.

EARLIER ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM...ALMOST COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500MB LOW...IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND APPROACH EASTERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...500MB TEMPS WILL ONLY LOWER 1C.
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE BACK IN WESTERN UPPER THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW...BRINGING A SHOT OF DPVA INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
(ESPECIALLY NW LOWER) OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING
MOIST AND THE MID LEVELS SEEING A NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE...THE WINDOW IS OPEN FOR SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...ANYWHERE. BUT THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY NOT ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE TO LET ONGOING CONVECTION PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN WE SHOULD ONLY NEED RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANCE POPS (30-40) FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY EXTENSIVE FROM THE STRAITS AREA NORTH.
WON/T TAKE MUCH LOWERING TO RESULT IN FOG. MEANWHILE...PARTIAL
CLEARING NOW IN NW/N CENTRAL LOWER WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS.
THAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL CENTER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST...AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE MORE IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 200127
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

IT TOOK TIL ALMOST 8 PM...BUT CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW
LOWER...ALMOST TO KALKASKA. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD ABOUT 700J/KG OF
SKINNY SBCAPE. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY
PEAKED AS THAT INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE.

EARLIER ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM...ALMOST COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500MB LOW...IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND APPROACH EASTERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...500MB TEMPS WILL ONLY LOWER 1C.
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE BACK IN WESTERN UPPER THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW...BRINGING A SHOT OF DPVA INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
(ESPECIALLY NW LOWER) OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING
MOIST AND THE MID LEVELS SEEING A NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE...THE WINDOW IS OPEN FOR SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...ANYWHERE. BUT THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY NOT ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE TO LET ONGOING CONVECTION PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN WE SHOULD ONLY NEED RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANCE POPS (30-40) FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY EXTENSIVE FROM THE STRAITS AREA NORTH.
WON/T TAKE MUCH LOWERING TO RESULT IN FOG. MEANWHILE...PARTIAL
CLEARING NOW IN NW/N CENTRAL LOWER WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS.
THAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST...AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200127
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

IT TOOK TIL ALMOST 8 PM...BUT CONVECTION FINALLY DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW
LOWER...ALMOST TO KALKASKA. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD ABOUT 700J/KG OF
SKINNY SBCAPE. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY
PEAKED AS THAT INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE.

EARLIER ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM...ALMOST COINCIDENT
WITH THE 500MB LOW...IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND APPROACH EASTERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT A TREMENDOUS POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...500MB TEMPS WILL ONLY LOWER 1C.
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE BACK IN WESTERN UPPER THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW...BRINGING A SHOT OF DPVA INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
(ESPECIALLY NW LOWER) OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING
MOIST AND THE MID LEVELS SEEING A NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE...THE WINDOW IS OPEN FOR SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME...ANYWHERE. BUT THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY NOT ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE TO LET ONGOING CONVECTION PLAY OUT OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN WE SHOULD ONLY NEED RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANCE POPS (30-40) FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY EXTENSIVE FROM THE STRAITS AREA NORTH.
WON/T TAKE MUCH LOWERING TO RESULT IN FOG. MEANWHILE...PARTIAL
CLEARING NOW IN NW/N CENTRAL LOWER WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS.
THAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST...AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 192354
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST...AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192354
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI
TO EASTERN LOWER MI DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE WX WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSRA. THE
MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST...AND FOG/STATUS IS STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...TL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 192041
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...GENERATING SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TAF PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS
MAINLY FOR THE APN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 192041
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...GENERATING SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TAF PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS
MAINLY FOR THE APN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO THE WINDS NEVER REACHING
CRITERIA AS ANTICIPATED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED AND WINDS/WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AND THE SAINT MARY/S RIVER SYSTEM AS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST BY THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION-
FREE WEATHER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192031
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
431 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...GENERATING SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TAF PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS
MAINLY FOR THE APN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192031
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
431 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVERHEAD. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM FRONT
TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK. THAT
FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL/STORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES...2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND
SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAITING ALL DAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT STAY RATHER
SPORADIC THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL PRODUCE...ALBEIT VERY
LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES
WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF 700 J/KG CAPE
WITH MINIMAL CIN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY COVER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A DESCENT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF MORNING
FOG. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S STILL LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
DIMINISH EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
ALTHOUGH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE CONUS IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING/WARM AIR BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SE STATES
UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVE
WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED BY PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE/WARM AIR. COLD FROPA AND
UPPER HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK KNOCKING OUR TEMPS BACK
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PSEUDO CUTOFF LOW SPINNING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL TAKE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO WORK
THROUGH THE REGION...PRESENTING VARYING PRECIP CHANCES. CLOSED UPPER
LOW AMD WEAK QG-FORCING REGIME SETTLES OVER THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY.
AND WITH COOL-ISH AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MODEST
SKINNY +CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PARTICULARLY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE GREATEST.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT...CERTAINLY A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWAT VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IF WE GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WEAK/VARIABLE WIND FIELDS AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FILLS AND SLIPS OFF THROUGH NEW YORK STATE
DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER AIR AGAIN STARTS TO
NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW. ISOLATED HEATING INDUCED
SHOWERS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AS UPPER LEVELS WARM AND WE DEVELOP SOME
CAPPING. BUT MEANWHILE...NARROW AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG A RENEWED
PUSH OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SKIRTING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS PUSHING 588 DM ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PROBLEM OF THE DAY. EURO/GFS BOTH SUGGEST SOME CONFIGURATION OF A
SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING WARM FRONT
EDGING ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO OR THROUGH THE STATE...ALTHOUGH JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THESE FEATURES ACTUALLY GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REGARDLESS...WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF SURGES OF WARM/MOIST (HIGH
THETA-E) AIR INTO NRN MICHIGAN...UNFORTUNATELY FOR NOW WE HAVE TO
KEEP SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN BETTER REFINE THOSE CHANCES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SOME REALLY WARM TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDED CLOUDS/PRECIP
DON/T MESS THINGS UP. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S BUT WARMER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LATER PERIODS)...STRONG PIECE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TIMING AGAIN REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY (TO
BREAK UP THE MONOTONY) BUT BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...GENERATING SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TAF PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS
MAINLY FOR THE APN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 192022
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVERHEAD. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH SOME SPOTS
PERHAPS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK.
THAT FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED.

PATTERN SUMMARY: SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AS OF 06Z. A WAVERING
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE BUT HAS RESISTED
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS MUCH OF YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...COURTESY OF
THE STILL QUITE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT WILL CHANGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SAID SURFACE LOW FLOATING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTH SOMEWHERE INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AGAIN MEETING RESISTANCE
FROM THE COLD GREAT LAKE WATERS UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT.

FORECAST DETAILS: ON A SOMEWHAT BASIC LEVEL...THIS IS A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM A PRECIP STANDPOINT. IT SHOULD RAIN
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...COURTESY OF
NOTABLE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERTAKING NORTHERN MICHIGAN JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE (PWATS CRUISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES PER UPSTREAM OBS) AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE
RESULT...THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH BATCH IS
TRICKY AT BEST. AT THIS POINT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LOOK TO COME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN A MORE DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL COME INTO PLAY...COMPLETE WITH CLASSIC SEMI-TROPICAL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP AROUND 600-900 J/KG...PERHAPS GREATER SOUTH
OF M-32 WHERE WE MAY MUSTER SOME BETTER HEATING SOUTH OF THE "WARM"
FRONT.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN SUCH HIGH PWATS...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND
12-13KFT...AND LIMITED STEERING FLOW OF ONLY 10 TO MAYBE 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOVE-MENTIONED SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE YIELDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (WITH A LIGHTNING
THREAT) WITHIN AN OVERALL BROADER AXIS OF SHOWERS. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE IF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES CAN BE REALIZED OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME PER
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...OR IF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOILS REMAIN WET FROM LAST WEEK`S HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS MORE
OF A NOWCAST TYPE OF SETUP. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH
AS WAS SEEN ACROSS WISCONSIN YESTERDAY...BETTER THAN EXPECTED
HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME BEEFIER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP-LOADING IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.

LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD...REFOCUSING THE AXIS OF BETTER MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SUPPORT
OUT OVER LAKE HURON BUT PERHAPS WRAPPING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
UPPER. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SORT OF CONFIGURATION...
WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE ARRIVING REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL SURELY
BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POPPING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...TURNING MORE SUMMER-LIKE?...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

CLOSED UPPER/SFC LOWS TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...A SLOW TRANSITION TO SOMETHING WE HAVE
BEEN TRYING FOR ALL SUMMER...SOME ACTUAL POSSIBLE RIDGING...WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IN THE LATER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH HINTS THAT SUMMER CONDITIONS HOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE ARE ALSO HINTS THAT WE TRY AND
REBUILD THE MORE COMMON TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO TRYING TO MAP OUT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

UPPER/SFC LOWS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEPARTING DEEP LAYER
FORCING BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THE POSITION OF THEM HAVING AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW...WITH BEST -DIVQ CROSSING NE LOWER
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. BEST
CHANCES RESIDE THERE IN THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY BREAKING UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME BL HEATING. WITH WEAK FLOW...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AM LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND STORMS. THESE LIKELY MORE SO IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND ALSO MORE SO IN NRN LOWER ALONG
AND EAST OF I-75. AMOUNTS OF HEATING DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THERE
IS NO EXPECTATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHOUT GOOD WIND...BUT WE DO
HAVE THE ABILITY TO WORK WITH UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. THIS NOT ENOUGH
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO SEE THE ABILITY TO RECEIVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5`-1.75"...AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTION HANGING ONTO MAINLY NE
LOWER IN THE EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER/SFC LOWS
DEPART.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING:

NOT REALLY IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONVECTION WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS...A DRYING ATMOSPHERE...AND AT LEAST SOME EXPECTATION
OF SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS WILL RESULT IN WEAK BL
ADVECTIONS...AND MORE SUNSHINE...WITH REMNANT DECENT DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE RESULT IN WARMER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY HERE...WITH SOME DATA SUGGESTING GREATER
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITHIN
EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER...BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVE IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN NE LOWER AGAIN GETTING A BETTER SHOT AT CONVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD:

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE TOO. THIS IS THE TRANSITION PERIOD TO
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...DUE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND THE EFFORT TO BUILD IN MORE HEAT. INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NRN
EXTENT OF WHICH IS IN SOME QUESTION WITH SUCH FLAT INITIAL RIDGING.
MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...TO HELP DRAG THE WARM FRONT
TOWARD US. THIS PUTS US ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A RING OF FIRE. MOST OF
THE TIME THIS RESULTS IN ANY CONVECTION DROPPING SW OF US...BUT WE
ARE AT LEAST IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING ACROSS NW LOWER.

FLOW REMAINS PRETTY WEAK ALOFT...AND THERE REALLY ISN`T TOO MUCH
DESIRE TO BRING THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WEAK VORTICITY BLEEDING IN OVER US...AND AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/PWATS OVERHEAD...GONNA HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS CHANCE IS BETTER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING (LLJ) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES CREEP
EVER CLOSER.

THE WEEKEND...MOST UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN TROUGHING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BE KEY. DATA SUGGESTING EITHER HOLDING ACROSS MORE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES...OR LIFTING THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THAT IS QUITE THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. THE LATTER IDEA WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW THROUGH US WITH
GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATTER RESULTS IN INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND KEEPING THE MAIN ACTION WELL WEST OF US. GONNA
TEND TO RIDE THE IDEA OF RIPPING THE FRONTS THROUGH HERE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING THIS
SUMMER. EITHER WAY...WE LOOK TO HAVE WARMER MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE...THIS IS TOUGH
TO FIGURE....BUT AM GOING WITH NO PRECIP AND COOLER. IF YA WANT
SUMMER TO CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD...BE ROOTING FOR THE ECMWF IN
THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...GENERATING SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TAF PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS
MAINLY FOR THE APN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192022
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVERHEAD. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH SOME SPOTS
PERHAPS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK.
THAT FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED.

PATTERN SUMMARY: SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AS OF 06Z. A WAVERING
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE BUT HAS RESISTED
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS MUCH OF YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...COURTESY OF
THE STILL QUITE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT WILL CHANGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SAID SURFACE LOW FLOATING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTH SOMEWHERE INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AGAIN MEETING RESISTANCE
FROM THE COLD GREAT LAKE WATERS UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT.

FORECAST DETAILS: ON A SOMEWHAT BASIC LEVEL...THIS IS A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM A PRECIP STANDPOINT. IT SHOULD RAIN
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...COURTESY OF
NOTABLE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERTAKING NORTHERN MICHIGAN JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE (PWATS CRUISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES PER UPSTREAM OBS) AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE
RESULT...THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH BATCH IS
TRICKY AT BEST. AT THIS POINT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LOOK TO COME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN A MORE DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL COME INTO PLAY...COMPLETE WITH CLASSIC SEMI-TROPICAL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP AROUND 600-900 J/KG...PERHAPS GREATER SOUTH
OF M-32 WHERE WE MAY MUSTER SOME BETTER HEATING SOUTH OF THE "WARM"
FRONT.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN SUCH HIGH PWATS...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND
12-13KFT...AND LIMITED STEERING FLOW OF ONLY 10 TO MAYBE 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOVE-MENTIONED SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE YIELDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (WITH A LIGHTNING
THREAT) WITHIN AN OVERALL BROADER AXIS OF SHOWERS. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE IF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES CAN BE REALIZED OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME PER
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...OR IF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOILS REMAIN WET FROM LAST WEEK`S HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS MORE
OF A NOWCAST TYPE OF SETUP. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH
AS WAS SEEN ACROSS WISCONSIN YESTERDAY...BETTER THAN EXPECTED
HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME BEEFIER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP-LOADING IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.

LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD...REFOCUSING THE AXIS OF BETTER MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SUPPORT
OUT OVER LAKE HURON BUT PERHAPS WRAPPING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
UPPER. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SORT OF CONFIGURATION...
WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE ARRIVING REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL SURELY
BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POPPING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...TURNING MORE SUMMER-LIKE?...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

CLOSED UPPER/SFC LOWS TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...A SLOW TRANSITION TO SOMETHING WE HAVE
BEEN TRYING FOR ALL SUMMER...SOME ACTUAL POSSIBLE RIDGING...WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IN THE LATER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH HINTS THAT SUMMER CONDITIONS HOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE ARE ALSO HINTS THAT WE TRY AND
REBUILD THE MORE COMMON TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO TRYING TO MAP OUT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

UPPER/SFC LOWS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEPARTING DEEP LAYER
FORCING BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THE POSITION OF THEM HAVING AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW...WITH BEST -DIVQ CROSSING NE LOWER
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. BEST
CHANCES RESIDE THERE IN THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY BREAKING UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME BL HEATING. WITH WEAK FLOW...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AM LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND STORMS. THESE LIKELY MORE SO IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND ALSO MORE SO IN NRN LOWER ALONG
AND EAST OF I-75. AMOUNTS OF HEATING DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THERE
IS NO EXPECTATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHOUT GOOD WIND...BUT WE DO
HAVE THE ABILITY TO WORK WITH UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. THIS NOT ENOUGH
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO SEE THE ABILITY TO RECEIVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5`-1.75"...AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTION HANGING ONTO MAINLY NE
LOWER IN THE EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER/SFC LOWS
DEPART.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING:

NOT REALLY IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONVECTION WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS...A DRYING ATMOSPHERE...AND AT LEAST SOME EXPECTATION
OF SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS WILL RESULT IN WEAK BL
ADVECTIONS...AND MORE SUNSHINE...WITH REMNANT DECENT DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE RESULT IN WARMER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY HERE...WITH SOME DATA SUGGESTING GREATER
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITHIN
EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER...BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVE IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN NE LOWER AGAIN GETTING A BETTER SHOT AT CONVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD:

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE TOO. THIS IS THE TRANSITION PERIOD TO
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...DUE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND THE EFFORT TO BUILD IN MORE HEAT. INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NRN
EXTENT OF WHICH IS IN SOME QUESTION WITH SUCH FLAT INITIAL RIDGING.
MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...TO HELP DRAG THE WARM FRONT
TOWARD US. THIS PUTS US ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A RING OF FIRE. MOST OF
THE TIME THIS RESULTS IN ANY CONVECTION DROPPING SW OF US...BUT WE
ARE AT LEAST IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING ACROSS NW LOWER.

FLOW REMAINS PRETTY WEAK ALOFT...AND THERE REALLY ISN`T TOO MUCH
DESIRE TO BRING THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WEAK VORTICITY BLEEDING IN OVER US...AND AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/PWATS OVERHEAD...GONNA HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS CHANCE IS BETTER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING (LLJ) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES CREEP
EVER CLOSER.

THE WEEKEND...MOST UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN TROUGHING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BE KEY. DATA SUGGESTING EITHER HOLDING ACROSS MORE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES...OR LIFTING THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THAT IS QUITE THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. THE LATTER IDEA WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW THROUGH US WITH
GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATTER RESULTS IN INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND KEEPING THE MAIN ACTION WELL WEST OF US. GONNA
TEND TO RIDE THE IDEA OF RIPPING THE FRONTS THROUGH HERE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING THIS
SUMMER. EITHER WAY...WE LOOK TO HAVE WARMER MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE...THIS IS TOUGH
TO FIGURE....BUT AM GOING WITH NO PRECIP AND COOLER. IF YA WANT
SUMMER TO CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD...BE ROOTING FOR THE ECMWF IN
THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...GENERATING SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TAF PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT IS
MAINLY FOR THE APN AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 191053
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
653 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVERHEAD. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH SOME SPOTS
PERHAPS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK.
THAT FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED.

PATTERN SUMMARY: SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AS OF 06Z. A WAVERING
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE BUT HAS RESISTED
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS MUCH OF YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...COURTESY OF
THE STILL QUITE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT WILL CHANGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SAID SURFACE LOW FLOATING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTH SOMEWHERE INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AGAIN MEETING RESISTANCE
FROM THE COLD GREAT LAKE WATERS UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT.

FORECAST DETAILS: ON A SOMEWHAT BASIC LEVEL...THIS IS A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM A PRECIP STANDPOINT. IT SHOULD RAIN
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...COURTESY OF
NOTABLE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERTAKING NORTHERN MICHIGAN JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE (PWATS CRUISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES PER UPSTREAM OBS) AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE
RESULT...THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH BATCH IS
TRICKY AT BEST. AT THIS POINT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LOOK TO COME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN A MORE DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL COME INTO PLAY...COMPLETE WITH CLASSIC SEMI-TROPICAL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP AROUND 600-900 J/KG...PERHAPS GREATER SOUTH
OF M-32 WHERE WE MAY MUSTER SOME BETTER HEATING SOUTH OF THE "WARM"
FRONT.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN SUCH HIGH PWATS...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND
12-13KFT...AND LIMITED STEERING FLOW OF ONLY 10 TO MAYBE 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOVE-MENTIONED SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE YIELDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (WITH A LIGHTNING
THREAT) WITHIN AN OVERALL BROADER AXIS OF SHOWERS. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE IF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES CAN BE REALIZED OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME PER
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...OR IF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOILS REMAIN WET FROM LAST WEEK`S HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS MORE
OF A NOWCAST TYPE OF SETUP. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH
AS WAS SEEN ACROSS WISCONSIN YESTERDAY...BETTER THAN EXPECTED
HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME BEEFIER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP-LOADING IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.

LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD...REFOCUSING THE AXIS OF BETTER MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SUPPORT
OUT OVER LAKE HURON BUT PERHAPS WRAPPING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
UPPER. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SORT OF CONFIGURATION...
WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE ARRIVING REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL SURELY
BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POPPING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...TURNING MORE SUMMER-LIKE?...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

CLOSED UPPER/SFC LOWS TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...A SLOW TRANSITION TO SOMETHING WE HAVE
BEEN TRYING FOR ALL SUMMER...SOME ACTUAL POSSIBLE RIDGING...WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IN THE LATER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH HINTS THAT SUMMER CONDITIONS HOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE ARE ALSO HINTS THAT WE TRY AND
REBUILD THE MORE COMMON TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO TRYING TO MAP OUT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

UPPER/SFC LOWS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEPARTING DEEP LAYER
FORCING BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THE POSITION OF THEM HAVING AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW...WITH BEST -DIVQ CROSSING NE LOWER
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. BEST
CHANCES RESIDE THERE IN THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY BREAKING UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME BL HEATING. WITH WEAK FLOW...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AM LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND STORMS. THESE LIKELY MORE SO IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND ALSO MORE SO IN NRN LOWER ALONG
AND EAST OF I-75. AMOUNTS OF HEATING DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THERE
IS NO EXPECTATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHOUT GOOD WIND...BUT WE DO
HAVE THE ABILITY TO WORK WITH UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. THIS NOT ENOUGH
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO SEE THE ABILITY TO RECEIVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5`-1.75"...AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTION HANGING ONTO MAINLY NE
LOWER IN THE EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER/SFC LOWS
DEPART.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING:

NOT REALLY IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONVECTION WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS...A DRYING ATMOSPHERE...AND AT LEAST SOME EXPECTATION
OF SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS WILL RESULT IN WEAK BL
ADVECTIONS...AND MORE SUNSHINE...WITH REMNANT DECENT DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE RESULT IN WARMER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY HERE...WITH SOME DATA SUGGESTING GREATER
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITHIN
EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER...BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVE IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN NE LOWER AGAIN GETTING A BETTER SHOT AT CONVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD:

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE TOO. THIS IS THE TRANSITION PERIOD TO
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...DUE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND THE EFFORT TO BUILD IN MORE HEAT. INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NRN
EXTENT OF WHICH IS IN SOME QUESTION WITH SUCH FLAT INITIAL RIDGING.
MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...TO HELP DRAG THE WARM FRONT
TOWARD US. THIS PUTS US ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A RING OF FIRE. MOST OF
THE TIME THIS RESULTS IN ANY CONVECTION DROPPING SW OF US...BUT WE
ARE AT LEAST IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING ACROSS NW LOWER.

FLOW REMAINS PRETTY WEAK ALOFT...AND THERE REALLY ISN`T TOO MUCH
DESIRE TO BRING THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WEAK VORTICITY BLEEDING IN OVER US...AND AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/PWATS OVERHEAD...GONNA HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS CHANCE IS BETTER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING (LLJ) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES CREEP
EVER CLOSER.

THE WEEKEND...MOST UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN TROUGHING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BE KEY. DATA SUGGESTING EITHER HOLDING ACROSS MORE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES...OR LIFTING THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THAT IS QUITE THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. THE LATTER IDEA WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW THROUGH US WITH
GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATTER RESULTS IN INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND KEEPING THE MAIN ACTION WELL WEST OF US. GONNA
TEND TO RIDE THE IDEA OF RIPPING THE FRONTS THROUGH HERE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING THIS
SUMMER. EITHER WAY...WE LOOK TO HAVE WARMER MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE...THIS IS TOUGH
TO FIGURE....BUT AM GOING WITH NO PRECIP AND COOLER. IF YA WANT
SUMMER TO CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD...BE ROOTING FOR THE ECMWF IN
THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...PERIODS OF MVFR THEN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
ONE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE EXITING TVC/MBL IN AN HOUR OR SO....WHILE THEN PROGRESSING
THROUGH PLN/APN THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RICH WITH
MOISTURE...AND MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO EVENING FOR MAINLY APN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT SEEING A STORM ISN`T ALL THAT HIGH...BUT WILL GO WITH A
VCTS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG.

A SOUTH TO SE BREEZE GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS...JUST A TAD GUSTY AT
APN. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE









000
FXUS63 KAPX 191053
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
653 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVERHEAD. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH SOME SPOTS
PERHAPS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK.
THAT FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED.

PATTERN SUMMARY: SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AS OF 06Z. A WAVERING
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE BUT HAS RESISTED
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS MUCH OF YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...COURTESY OF
THE STILL QUITE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT WILL CHANGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SAID SURFACE LOW FLOATING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTH SOMEWHERE INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AGAIN MEETING RESISTANCE
FROM THE COLD GREAT LAKE WATERS UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT.

FORECAST DETAILS: ON A SOMEWHAT BASIC LEVEL...THIS IS A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM A PRECIP STANDPOINT. IT SHOULD RAIN
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...COURTESY OF
NOTABLE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERTAKING NORTHERN MICHIGAN JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE (PWATS CRUISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES PER UPSTREAM OBS) AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE
RESULT...THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH BATCH IS
TRICKY AT BEST. AT THIS POINT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LOOK TO COME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN A MORE DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL COME INTO PLAY...COMPLETE WITH CLASSIC SEMI-TROPICAL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP AROUND 600-900 J/KG...PERHAPS GREATER SOUTH
OF M-32 WHERE WE MAY MUSTER SOME BETTER HEATING SOUTH OF THE "WARM"
FRONT.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN SUCH HIGH PWATS...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND
12-13KFT...AND LIMITED STEERING FLOW OF ONLY 10 TO MAYBE 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOVE-MENTIONED SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE YIELDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (WITH A LIGHTNING
THREAT) WITHIN AN OVERALL BROADER AXIS OF SHOWERS. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE IF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES CAN BE REALIZED OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME PER
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...OR IF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOILS REMAIN WET FROM LAST WEEK`S HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS MORE
OF A NOWCAST TYPE OF SETUP. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH
AS WAS SEEN ACROSS WISCONSIN YESTERDAY...BETTER THAN EXPECTED
HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME BEEFIER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP-LOADING IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.

LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD...REFOCUSING THE AXIS OF BETTER MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SUPPORT
OUT OVER LAKE HURON BUT PERHAPS WRAPPING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
UPPER. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SORT OF CONFIGURATION...
WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE ARRIVING REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL SURELY
BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POPPING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...TURNING MORE SUMMER-LIKE?...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

CLOSED UPPER/SFC LOWS TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...A SLOW TRANSITION TO SOMETHING WE HAVE
BEEN TRYING FOR ALL SUMMER...SOME ACTUAL POSSIBLE RIDGING...WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IN THE LATER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH HINTS THAT SUMMER CONDITIONS HOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE ARE ALSO HINTS THAT WE TRY AND
REBUILD THE MORE COMMON TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO TRYING TO MAP OUT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

UPPER/SFC LOWS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEPARTING DEEP LAYER
FORCING BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THE POSITION OF THEM HAVING AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW...WITH BEST -DIVQ CROSSING NE LOWER
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. BEST
CHANCES RESIDE THERE IN THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY BREAKING UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME BL HEATING. WITH WEAK FLOW...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AM LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND STORMS. THESE LIKELY MORE SO IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND ALSO MORE SO IN NRN LOWER ALONG
AND EAST OF I-75. AMOUNTS OF HEATING DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THERE
IS NO EXPECTATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHOUT GOOD WIND...BUT WE DO
HAVE THE ABILITY TO WORK WITH UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. THIS NOT ENOUGH
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO SEE THE ABILITY TO RECEIVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5`-1.75"...AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTION HANGING ONTO MAINLY NE
LOWER IN THE EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER/SFC LOWS
DEPART.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING:

NOT REALLY IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONVECTION WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS...A DRYING ATMOSPHERE...AND AT LEAST SOME EXPECTATION
OF SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS WILL RESULT IN WEAK BL
ADVECTIONS...AND MORE SUNSHINE...WITH REMNANT DECENT DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE RESULT IN WARMER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY HERE...WITH SOME DATA SUGGESTING GREATER
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITHIN
EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER...BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVE IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN NE LOWER AGAIN GETTING A BETTER SHOT AT CONVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD:

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE TOO. THIS IS THE TRANSITION PERIOD TO
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...DUE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND THE EFFORT TO BUILD IN MORE HEAT. INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NRN
EXTENT OF WHICH IS IN SOME QUESTION WITH SUCH FLAT INITIAL RIDGING.
MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...TO HELP DRAG THE WARM FRONT
TOWARD US. THIS PUTS US ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A RING OF FIRE. MOST OF
THE TIME THIS RESULTS IN ANY CONVECTION DROPPING SW OF US...BUT WE
ARE AT LEAST IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING ACROSS NW LOWER.

FLOW REMAINS PRETTY WEAK ALOFT...AND THERE REALLY ISN`T TOO MUCH
DESIRE TO BRING THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WEAK VORTICITY BLEEDING IN OVER US...AND AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/PWATS OVERHEAD...GONNA HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS CHANCE IS BETTER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING (LLJ) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES CREEP
EVER CLOSER.

THE WEEKEND...MOST UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN TROUGHING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BE KEY. DATA SUGGESTING EITHER HOLDING ACROSS MORE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES...OR LIFTING THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THAT IS QUITE THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. THE LATTER IDEA WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW THROUGH US WITH
GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATTER RESULTS IN INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND KEEPING THE MAIN ACTION WELL WEST OF US. GONNA
TEND TO RIDE THE IDEA OF RIPPING THE FRONTS THROUGH HERE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING THIS
SUMMER. EITHER WAY...WE LOOK TO HAVE WARMER MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE...THIS IS TOUGH
TO FIGURE....BUT AM GOING WITH NO PRECIP AND COOLER. IF YA WANT
SUMMER TO CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD...BE ROOTING FOR THE ECMWF IN
THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...PERIODS OF MVFR THEN IFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD...

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
ONE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE EXITING TVC/MBL IN AN HOUR OR SO....WHILE THEN PROGRESSING
THROUGH PLN/APN THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RICH WITH
MOISTURE...AND MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO EVENING FOR MAINLY APN. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
AIRPORT SEEING A STORM ISN`T ALL THAT HIGH...BUT WILL GO WITH A
VCTS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG.

A SOUTH TO SE BREEZE GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS...JUST A TAD GUSTY AT
APN. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 190745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVERHEAD. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH SOME SPOTS
PERHAPS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK.
THAT FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED.

PATTERN SUMMARY: SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AS OF 06Z. A WAVERING
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE BUT HAS RESISTED
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS MUCH OF YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...COURTESY OF
THE STILL QUITE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT WILL CHANGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SAID SURFACE LOW FLOATING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTH SOMEWHERE INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AGAIN MEETING RESISTANCE
FROM THE COLD GREAT LAKE WATERS UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT.

FORECAST DETAILS: ON A SOMEWHAT BASIC LEVEL...THIS IS A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM A PRECIP STANDPOINT. IT SHOULD RAIN
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...COURTESY OF
NOTABLE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERTAKING NORTHERN MICHIGAN JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE (PWATS CRUISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES PER UPSTREAM OBS) AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE
RESULT...THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH BATCH IS
TRICKY AT BEST. AT THIS POINT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LOOK TO COME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN A MORE DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL COME INTO PLAY...COMPLETE WITH CLASSIC SEMI-TROPICAL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP AROUND 600-900 J/KG...PERHAPS GREATER SOUTH
OF M-32 WHERE WE MAY MUSTER SOME BETTER HEATING SOUTH OF THE "WARM"
FRONT.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN SUCH HIGH PWATS...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND
12-13KFT...AND LIMITED STEERING FLOW OF ONLY 10 TO MAYBE 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOVE-MENTIONED SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE YIELDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (WITH A LIGHTNING
THREAT) WITHIN AN OVERALL BROADER AXIS OF SHOWERS. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE IF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES CAN BE REALIZED OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME PER
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...OR IF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOILS REMAIN WET FROM LAST WEEK`S HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS MORE
OF A NOWCAST TYPE OF SETUP. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH
AS WAS SEEN ACROSS WISCONSIN YESTERDAY...BETTER THAN EXPECTED
HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME BEEFIER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP-LOADING IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.

LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD...REFOCUSING THE AXIS OF BETTER MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SUPPORT
OUT OVER LAKE HURON BUT PERHAPS WRAPPING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
UPPER. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SORT OF CONFIGURATION...
WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE ARRIVING REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL SURELY
BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POPPING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...TURNING MORE SUMMER-LIKE?...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

CLOSED UPPER/SFC LOWS TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...A SLOW TRANSITION TO SOMETHING WE HAVE
BEEN TRYING FOR ALL SUMMER...SOME ACTUAL POSSIBLE RIDGING...WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IN THE LATER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH HINTS THAT SUMMER CONDITIONS HOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE ARE ALSO HINTS THAT WE TRY AND
REBUILD THE MORE COMMON TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO TRYING TO MAP OUT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

UPPER/SFC LOWS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEPARTING DEEP LAYER
FORCING BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THE POSITION OF THEM HAVING AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW...WITH BEST -DIVQ CROSSING NE LOWER
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. BEST
CHANCES RESIDE THERE IN THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY BREAKING UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME BL HEATING. WITH WEAK FLOW...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AM LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND STORMS. THESE LIKELY MORE SO IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND ALSO MORE SO IN NRN LOWER ALONG
AND EAST OF I-75. AMOUNTS OF HEATING DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THERE
IS NO EXPECTATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHOUT GOOD WIND...BUT WE DO
HAVE THE ABILITY TO WORK WITH UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. THIS NOT ENOUGH
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO SEE THE ABILITY TO RECEIVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5`-1.75"...AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTION HANGING ONTO MAINLY NE
LOWER IN THE EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER/SFC LOWS
DEPART.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING:

NOT REALLY IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONVECTION WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS...A DRYING ATMOSPHERE...AND AT LEAST SOME EXPECTATION
OF SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS WILL RESULT IN WEAK BL
ADVECTIONS...AND MORE SUNSHINE...WITH REMNANT DECENT DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE RESULT IN WARMER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY HERE...WITH SOME DATA SUGGESTING GREATER
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITHIN
EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER...BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVE IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN NE LOWER AGAIN GETTING A BETTER SHOT AT CONVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD:

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE TOO. THIS IS THE TRANSITION PERIOD TO
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...DUE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND THE EFFORT TO BUILD IN MORE HEAT. INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NRN
EXTENT OF WHICH IS IN SOME QUESTION WITH SUCH FLAT INITIAL RIDGING.
MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...TO HELP DRAG THE WARM FRONT
TOWARD US. THIS PUTS US ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A RING OF FIRE. MOST OF
THE TIME THIS RESULTS IN ANY CONVECTION DROPPING SW OF US...BUT WE
ARE AT LEAST IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING ACROSS NW LOWER.

FLOW REMAINS PRETTY WEAK ALOFT...AND THERE REALLY ISN`T TOO MUCH
DESIRE TO BRING THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WEAK VORTICITY BLEEDING IN OVER US...AND AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/PWATS OVERHEAD...GONNA HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS CHANCE IS BETTER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING (LLJ) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES CREEP
EVER CLOSER.

THE WEEKEND...MOST UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN TROUGHING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BE KEY. DATA SUGGESTING EITHER HOLDING ACROSS MORE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES...OR LIFTING THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THAT IS QUITE THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. THE LATTER IDEA WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW THROUGH US WITH
GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATTER RESULTS IN INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND KEEPING THE MAIN ACTION WELL WEST OF US. GONNA
TEND TO RIDE THE IDEA OF RIPPING THE FRONTS THROUGH HERE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING THIS
SUMMER. EITHER WAY...WE LOOK TO HAVE WARMER MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE...THIS IS TOUGH
TO FIGURE....BUT AM GOING WITH NO PRECIP AND COOLER. IF YA WANT
SUMMER TO CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD...BE ROOTING FOR THE ECMWF IN
THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT APN TUESDAY EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 190745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SPINS OVERHEAD. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH SOME SPOTS
PERHAPS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT SYSTEM WILL DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST IN TIME FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SLOWLY INCH NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE WEEK.
THAT FEATURE WILL DELIVER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED.

PATTERN SUMMARY: SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MEANDERING EASTWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AS OF 06Z. A WAVERING
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO THIS FEATURE BUT HAS RESISTED
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS MUCH OF YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT...COURTESY OF
THE STILL QUITE COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT WILL CHANGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PINWHEELS OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SAID SURFACE LOW FLOATING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...LIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTH SOMEWHERE INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BUT AGAIN MEETING RESISTANCE
FROM THE COLD GREAT LAKE WATERS UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT.

FORECAST DETAILS: ON A SOMEWHAT BASIC LEVEL...THIS IS A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM A PRECIP STANDPOINT. IT SHOULD RAIN
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...COURTESY OF
NOTABLE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERTAKING NORTHERN MICHIGAN JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. COMBINE THAT WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE (PWATS CRUISING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES PER UPSTREAM OBS) AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE
RESULT...THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH BATCH IS
TRICKY AT BEST. AT THIS POINT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LOOK TO COME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN A MORE DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL COME INTO PLAY...COMPLETE WITH CLASSIC SEMI-TROPICAL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES UP AROUND 600-900 J/KG...PERHAPS GREATER SOUTH
OF M-32 WHERE WE MAY MUSTER SOME BETTER HEATING SOUTH OF THE "WARM"
FRONT.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH...THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS GIVEN SUCH HIGH PWATS...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND
12-13KFT...AND LIMITED STEERING FLOW OF ONLY 10 TO MAYBE 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOVE-MENTIONED SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE YIELDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (WITH A LIGHTNING
THREAT) WITHIN AN OVERALL BROADER AXIS OF SHOWERS. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS...WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
SPOTS PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME AN ISSUE IF
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES CAN BE REALIZED OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME PER
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...OR IF SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL
INTO NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOILS REMAIN WET FROM LAST WEEK`S HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS MORE
OF A NOWCAST TYPE OF SETUP. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED BY A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH
AS WAS SEEN ACROSS WISCONSIN YESTERDAY...BETTER THAN EXPECTED
HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME BEEFIER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP-LOADING IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND AT
LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.

LOOKING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD...REFOCUSING THE AXIS OF BETTER MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SUPPORT
OUT OVER LAKE HURON BUT PERHAPS WRAPPING BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
UPPER. WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SORT OF CONFIGURATION...
WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE ARRIVING REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL SURELY
BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POPPING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...TURNING MORE SUMMER-LIKE?...

IMPACTS: LIGHTNING...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

CLOSED UPPER/SFC LOWS TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...A SLOW TRANSITION TO SOMETHING WE HAVE
BEEN TRYING FOR ALL SUMMER...SOME ACTUAL POSSIBLE RIDGING...WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY WITH BOTH NOCTURNAL AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF COURSE IN THE LATER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST...WITH HINTS THAT SUMMER CONDITIONS HOLD INTO EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE ARE ALSO HINTS THAT WE TRY AND
REBUILD THE MORE COMMON TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO TRYING TO MAP OUT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE
FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

UPPER/SFC LOWS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEPARTING DEEP LAYER
FORCING BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...THE POSITION OF THEM HAVING AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW...WITH BEST -DIVQ CROSSING NE LOWER
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. BEST
CHANCES RESIDE THERE IN THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY BREAKING UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME BL HEATING. WITH WEAK FLOW...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AM LOOKING FOR AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND STORMS. THESE LIKELY MORE SO IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND ALSO MORE SO IN NRN LOWER ALONG
AND EAST OF I-75. AMOUNTS OF HEATING DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE. THERE
IS NO EXPECTATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHOUT GOOD WIND...BUT WE DO
HAVE THE ABILITY TO WORK WITH UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG. THIS NOT ENOUGH
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO SEE THE ABILITY TO RECEIVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5`-1.75"...AND VIRTUALLY NO WIND FOR SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTION HANGING ONTO MAINLY NE
LOWER IN THE EVENING UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER/SFC LOWS
DEPART.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING:

NOT REALLY IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONVECTION WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS...A DRYING ATMOSPHERE...AND AT LEAST SOME EXPECTATION
OF SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...WEAK WINDS WILL RESULT IN WEAK BL
ADVECTIONS...AND MORE SUNSHINE...WITH REMNANT DECENT DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE RESULT IN WARMER EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY HERE...WITH SOME DATA SUGGESTING GREATER
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITHIN
EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS OF INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER...BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVE IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NW WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN NE LOWER AGAIN GETTING A BETTER SHOT AT CONVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD:

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE TOO. THIS IS THE TRANSITION PERIOD TO
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...DUE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND THE EFFORT TO BUILD IN MORE HEAT. INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NRN
EXTENT OF WHICH IS IN SOME QUESTION WITH SUCH FLAT INITIAL RIDGING.
MODELS ARE LIKELY KEYING IN ON A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT...TO HELP DRAG THE WARM FRONT
TOWARD US. THIS PUTS US ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A RING OF FIRE. MOST OF
THE TIME THIS RESULTS IN ANY CONVECTION DROPPING SW OF US...BUT WE
ARE AT LEAST IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING ACROSS NW LOWER.

FLOW REMAINS PRETTY WEAK ALOFT...AND THERE REALLY ISN`T TOO MUCH
DESIRE TO BRING THIS FRONT FURTHER NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WEAK VORTICITY BLEEDING IN OVER US...AND AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/PWATS OVERHEAD...GONNA HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS CHANCE IS BETTER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING (LLJ) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES CREEP
EVER CLOSER.

THE WEEKEND...MOST UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN TROUGHING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL BE KEY. DATA SUGGESTING EITHER HOLDING ACROSS MORE OF THE
NRN ROCKIES...OR LIFTING THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO. THAT IS QUITE THE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. THE LATTER IDEA WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIVING THE WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW THROUGH US WITH
GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE LATTER RESULTS IN INCREASING
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND KEEPING THE MAIN ACTION WELL WEST OF US. GONNA
TEND TO RIDE THE IDEA OF RIPPING THE FRONTS THROUGH HERE SINCE WE
HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING THIS
SUMMER. EITHER WAY...WE LOOK TO HAVE WARMER MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE...THIS IS TOUGH
TO FIGURE....BUT AM GOING WITH NO PRECIP AND COOLER. IF YA WANT
SUMMER TO CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD...BE ROOTING FOR THE ECMWF IN
THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT APN TUESDAY EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND THEN
MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINDS
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE UP THE LAKE HURON
COAST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO WHITEFISH BAY WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
HIGHER WAVES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LHZ346>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...LAWRENCE







000
FXUS63 KAPX 190359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

DEEP CONVECTION IS ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER MI...REACHING MBL/FKS
AND NW OF THE MANITOUS. LIGHTER SHRA CONTINUE IN EASTERN
UPPER...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA SEEN AHEAD THE MAIN ACTIVITY (SUCH AS
NEAR APN AND W BRANCH). HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS AS THE EVENING HAS PROGRESSED. IN
PARTICULAR...HAVE ACCELERATED THE ONSET OF THUNDER IN NW LOWER...
GIVEN TRENDS SEEN IN LIGHTNING DATA. WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIP TO SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH...THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
INCREASINGLY SOGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT APN TUESDAY EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 190359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

DEEP CONVECTION IS ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER MI...REACHING MBL/FKS
AND NW OF THE MANITOUS. LIGHTER SHRA CONTINUE IN EASTERN
UPPER...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA SEEN AHEAD THE MAIN ACTIVITY (SUCH AS
NEAR APN AND W BRANCH). HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS AS THE EVENING HAS PROGRESSED. IN
PARTICULAR...HAVE ACCELERATED THE ONSET OF THUNDER IN NW LOWER...
GIVEN TRENDS SEEN IN LIGHTNING DATA. WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIP TO SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH...THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
INCREASINGLY SOGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WI WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT APN TUESDAY EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 190149
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
949 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

DEEP CONVECTION IS ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER MI...REACHING MBL/FKS
AND NW OF THE MANITOUS. LIGHTER SHRA CONTINUE IN EASTERN
UPPER...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA SEEN AHEAD THE MAIN ACTIVITY (SUCH AS
NEAR APN AND W BRANCH). HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS AS THE EVENING HAS PROGRESSED. IN
PARTICULAR...HAVE ACCELERATED THE ONSET OF THUNDER IN NW LOWER...
GIVEN TRENDS SEEN IN LIGHTNING DATA. WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIP TO SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH...THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
INCREASINGLY SOGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TWIN CITIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...AND THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 190149
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
949 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

DEEP CONVECTION IS ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER MI...REACHING MBL/FKS
AND NW OF THE MANITOUS. LIGHTER SHRA CONTINUE IN EASTERN
UPPER...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA SEEN AHEAD THE MAIN ACTIVITY (SUCH AS
NEAR APN AND W BRANCH). HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
IN THE GRIDDED FORECASTS AS THE EVENING HAS PROGRESSED. IN
PARTICULAR...HAVE ACCELERATED THE ONSET OF THUNDER IN NW LOWER...
GIVEN TRENDS SEEN IN LIGHTNING DATA. WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PRECIP TO SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH...THE NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
INCREASINGLY SOGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TWIN CITIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...AND THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 182334
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
734 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TWIN CITIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...AND THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 182334
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
734 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY DUE TO SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TWIN CITIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
NORTHERN LAKE MI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MI TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY TIME THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AND IN
PARTICULAR ANY TSRA. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES...AND THERE ARE CHANCES FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SE BREEZE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 181959
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER AFTER 20Z. PRECIPITATION THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 181959
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1017MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...DIFFUSE/ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE TURNING EAST ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA.  WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING INTO MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN UPPER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD GREEN BAY.

LEAD DYNAMIC PV ANOMALY CROSSING UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
WHILE ITS MORE SUBSTANTIAL COUNTERPART SPINS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...INITIAL AREAS OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF M-72 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEYOND THAT...
PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ON UPSTREAM LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER WHICH IS STARTING TO KICK UP SOME
CONVECTION.  THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SWINGS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOST AREAS SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAY SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE
WITHIN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD UPPER WAVE...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD
NOT END COMPLETELY GIVEN PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND DECREASING
STABILITY (INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E COMBINED WITH COOL DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE TEMPERATURES).  POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE HOW THIS SCENARIO EVOLVES
OVERNIGHT...AN EAST/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REINFORCE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BUT OUTSIDE OF TIMING INITIAL ARRIVAL OF RAIN
CHANCES NOT GOING TO GET TOO CUTE BEYOND THAT...CATEGORICAL POPS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GREATER THAN AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW "SKINNY CAPE" PROFILES WITH
NEARLY 1500 J/KG CAPE AT TIMES...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...AND
VERY WEAK 0-6 KM STORM MOTION OF NO MORE THAN 10 KTS. IN
RESPONSE...ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MANY UPSTREAM
LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH IN UNDER 24 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF OVER 3...4...AND EVEN 5 INCHES OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS IF THE SAME SCENARIO THAT
PLAYED OUT ABOUT A WEEK OR SO AGO WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF I-75 WILL
OCCUR AGAIN...BUT WITH EASTERN UPPER POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON THE
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE TIMING OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AND VORTICITY MAX WITH SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
COINCIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER. EXACT LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL GREATLY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY MADE IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DUE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WHILE JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES REACHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER TEMPS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND A THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF AREAS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE
RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN...BUT TOO FAR OUT AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT ANY
EXACT AREA. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL STAY FARTHER
SOUTH...WITH STORMS MISSING OUR FORECAST AREA ALL TOGETHER. WILL
WAIT AND SEE.

MONDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER AFTER 20Z. PRECIPITATION THREAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT SLIDES
INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH WAVES MAY START TO GET A
BIT CHOPPY ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LONG FETCH SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES (MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STILL SOUTHEAST WINDS
ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TL
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181531
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

MORE SUN EAST AND MORE CLOUDS WEST WILL BE THE FORECAST TREND FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER AT LATE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...WITH SOME LEFTOVER PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER. CLOUDS COMING OUT OF WISCONSIN ARE IMPINGING UPON
THE NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE...WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL UPPER/NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER BY MID AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE
INCREASES (PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF 12Z SOUNDINGS: 0.63 INCH/APX
INCREASING TO 1.62/GRB AND 1.65 MPX) WITHIN A LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH TONIGHT...

RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH WEAK WINDS AND DRY UPPER LEVELS
HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THIS
MOISTURE WILL GET LIFTED UNDERNEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL FLAT CUMULUS FIELD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...DUE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR...AND SHOWERS
OVER THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KTS...TRENDING ONSHORE TODAY...BUT
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

OVERALL...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH
WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST ALL NEARSHORES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE STRAITS/FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY. HERE IS
WHERE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181531
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

MORE SUN EAST AND MORE CLOUDS WEST WILL BE THE FORECAST TREND FOR
THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER AT LATE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...WITH SOME LEFTOVER PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER. CLOUDS COMING OUT OF WISCONSIN ARE IMPINGING UPON
THE NORTHWEST LOWER LAKESHORE...WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL UPPER/NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER BY MID AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE
INCREASES (PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF 12Z SOUNDINGS: 0.63 INCH/APX
INCREASING TO 1.62/GRB AND 1.65 MPX) WITHIN A LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH TONIGHT...

RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH WEAK WINDS AND DRY UPPER LEVELS
HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THIS
MOISTURE WILL GET LIFTED UNDERNEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL FLAT CUMULUS FIELD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...DUE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR...AND SHOWERS
OVER THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KTS...TRENDING ONSHORE TODAY...BUT
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

OVERALL...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH
WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST ALL NEARSHORES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE STRAITS/FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY. HERE IS
WHERE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 181056
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
656 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH TONIGHT...

RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH WEAK WINDS AND DRY UPPER LEVELS
HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THIS
MOISTURE WILL GET LIFTED UNDERNEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL FLAT CUMULUS FIELD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...DUE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR...AND SHOWERS
OVER THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KTS...TRENDING ONSHORE TODAY...BUT
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

OVERALL...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH
WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST ALL NEARSHORES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE STRAITS/FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY. HERE IS
WHERE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181056
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
656 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH TONIGHT...

RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WITH WEAK WINDS AND DRY UPPER LEVELS
HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG. THIS
MOISTURE WILL GET LIFTED UNDERNEATH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL FLAT CUMULUS FIELD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...DUE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN INTO THE
NIGHT...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR...AND SHOWERS
OVER THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 KTS...TRENDING ONSHORE TODAY...BUT
THE LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

OVERALL...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH
WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST ALL NEARSHORES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE STRAITS/FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY. HERE IS
WHERE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 180800 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT LOW STRATUS...FOG AND THUS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN AND APN) THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL)
DRIVEN BY OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

OVERALL...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH
WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST ALL NEARSHORES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE STRAITS/FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY. HERE IS
WHERE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD









000
FXUS63 KAPX 180800 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT LOW STRATUS...FOG AND THUS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN AND APN) THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL)
DRIVEN BY OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

OVERALL...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH
WINDS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST ALL NEARSHORES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE STRAITS/FAR NRN LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY. HERE IS
WHERE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD










000
FXUS63 KAPX 180753
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT LOW STRATUS...FOG AND THUS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN AND APN) THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL)
DRIVEN BY OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH WINDS
REMAINING WELL UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 180753
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. POOR
VISIBILITY.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRYING TO
MAKE INROADS TO NRN MICHIGAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS EJECTED ENERGY FROM
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPPING SW FROM MANITOBA. THIS WAVE CAN`T EVEN
PRODUCE MID AND UPPER CLOUD AS THINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE 850MB PER
THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. IN THE BL THOUGH...THINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND
ALSO CAPPED OFF BY A RATHER PRONOUNCED INVERSION. ADD IN WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITHIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS...AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND FOG. MANY AREAS
OF POOR VISIBILITY WERE COMMON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN
LOWER. FURTHER UPSTREAM...DEEPER MOISTURE (1.5"-2.0" PWATS) RESIDED
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MN AND THE DAKOTAS. THE MAIN TROUGH WITH BROAD AND
FAIRLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THIS NOT DUE TO JUST THE HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT...BUT
ALSO TO WEAK WIND FIELDS RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
INITIALLY...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE PRETTY COMMON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE MOIST BL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AM EXPECTING THIS TO
BURN OFF (NOT LIKE YESTERDAY) BY MID MORNING...BEFORE ONE VORTICITY
MAXIMA NEAR MSP...SPREADS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR WAVE WILL LIFT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM OUT WEST...UP AND OVER A DEVELOPING AND WEAK WARM FRONT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE CLOUDY...AND ALSO MAYBE PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. THIS ADDED CLOUD...AND AN EXPECTED DECENT
LAYER OF FLAT CUMULUS (STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION) WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER TOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. COULD ENVISION TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70F IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
TIME DURING THE DAY FOR THE AUGUST SUN TO POP OUT AND GET MOST
EVERYONE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S. SKIES WILL JUST THICKEN IN
CLOUDS HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH NEARS...AND
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO NRN MICHIGAN. DEEP LAYER
FORCING INCREASES AND THERE WILL BE POCKETS/AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO (ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SMALL/MINIMAL).
THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY MIDWEEK RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: A BIT OF A DIFFERENT LOOK TO THE FLOW REGIME FOR A
CHANGE THIS SUMMER...FEATURING BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK...FAVORING THE STRENGTHENING OF
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. THAT IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO OVERALL RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SO MUCH THIS YEAR...THERE`S ALWAYS A WRINKLE OR TWO IN
AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. THIS TIME THAT FEATURE IS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SLATED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD AND WORK
THROUGH THE BURGEONING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE CONTINUED SIGNS THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD TOWARD LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...
ALL AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-EMERGING WESTERN TROUGH.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY FAR THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST AS A VERY SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVERHEAD. QUITE THE INTERESTING SETUP FROM
A SNEAKY HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE...WITH AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
(PWATS UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES) WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A RECENT HISTORY OF BEING ONE THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME
TREMENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA...WITH EVEN A
FEW SPOTS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES OF
RAIN (YIKES!). FORECAST RAOBS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A TROPICAL LOOK...
FEATURING DEEP/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE THE BACKGROUND
ASCENT TO DRIVE THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO RAINS...WITH SAID SKINNY
INSTABILITY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...PARTICULARLY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

BASED ON THE SETUP...WOULDN`T AT ALL BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME SPOTS
PICK UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER IN SPOTS SHOULD ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS LOOKS
TO COME ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOIST INFLOW
AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL OVERLAP. OVERALL...SAID
EXPECTED RAINS SHOULD HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON RIVERS GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND NOT-SO-SATURATED SOILS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST
LOWER WHERE LAST WEEK`S HEAVY RAINS PRODUCED UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN
SPOTS. THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION. OUR MIDWEEK UPPER LOW WILL
BE WORKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RECYCLING OF LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC RIDGING MAY JUST TRY TO PUT
THE KIBOSH OF ANY BIG PRECIP THREAT UP THIS WAY...AS THE FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SITS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. OFTEN THAT WILL BE WHERE THE MCS TRACK
LIES AND BASED ON CLIMO IN SUCH SETUPS...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SIT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...OF COURSE ANY SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT REALLY HATE TO CLUTTER UP
THE FORECAST WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS WHEN THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
WILL BE REMOVED FROM OUR CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MORE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SHARPNESS OF THERMAL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH
MORE SUPPRESSED SETUP...OFFERING BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL OFF
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE GFS
IS OUT ON ITS OWN WITH A MORE AMPED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HELPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON
HISTORY THIS YEAR...WOULD HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT A BLENDED APPROACH SHOULD WORK THAT FAR OUT...WITH
ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPS APPROACHING OR EVEN BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT LOW STRATUS...FOG AND THUS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN AND APN) THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL)
DRIVEN BY OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE...WITH WINDS
REMAINING WELL UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 180527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING DRY AND RATHER
COMFORTABLE MID-AUGUST CONDITIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...ANOTHER NIGHT OF VARIABLE CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL...PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1022MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY HAS
STALLED ALONG THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WITH A SMALL FRONTAL
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT WAS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR WAS SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER TODAY STARTING TO
BREAK UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE TIP
OF THE MITT AND NORTHEAST LOWER.

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT TOWARD WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT.  INCREASING
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WISCONSIN WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
FOG TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS FROM CLOUD COVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND LIMITED MIXING LIKELY TO HAVE A IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT SKY CONDITION.  WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SUSPECT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF COOLING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AT MID AFTERNOON...AND AS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES TO BE BREACHED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO 40S-LOWER 50S.  SO THE THREAT FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW...PERHAPS SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
CENTER ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LEADING TO RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE MONTANA SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO FINALLY
MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION BEFORE STALLING OUT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPENING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF POPS A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE (ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST MONDAY NIGHT). LITTLE INSTABILITY IN
EVIDENCE SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (NO THUNDER).
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. LOWS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS (AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES). THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO DEEP CLOUD COVER. STILL ONLY
EXPECT A VERY SLOW EXIT TO THE EAST OF THIS SOLUTION SO WILL LINGER
POPS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR SURE
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT BUT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO GO ALONG WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE
OR TWO WHICH WILL MAKE FOR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE READINGS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S DURING THE DAY AND THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE RISE DUE TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
ALL BETS ARE OFF NEXT WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY. SO WILL HAVE TO GO WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN
SATURDAY AND FRONTAL DRIVEN SUNDAY. FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS OF WELL
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MILD UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT LOW STRATUS...FOG AND THUS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN AND APN) THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL)
DRIVEN BY OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THOUGH BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO
MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 180527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING DRY AND RATHER
COMFORTABLE MID-AUGUST CONDITIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...ANOTHER NIGHT OF VARIABLE CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL...PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1022MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY HAS
STALLED ALONG THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WITH A SMALL FRONTAL
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT WAS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR WAS SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER TODAY STARTING TO
BREAK UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE TIP
OF THE MITT AND NORTHEAST LOWER.

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT TOWARD WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT.  INCREASING
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WISCONSIN WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
FOG TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS FROM CLOUD COVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND LIMITED MIXING LIKELY TO HAVE A IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT SKY CONDITION.  WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SUSPECT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF COOLING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AT MID AFTERNOON...AND AS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES TO BE BREACHED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO 40S-LOWER 50S.  SO THE THREAT FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW...PERHAPS SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
CENTER ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LEADING TO RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE MONTANA SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO FINALLY
MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION BEFORE STALLING OUT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPENING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF POPS A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE (ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST MONDAY NIGHT). LITTLE INSTABILITY IN
EVIDENCE SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (NO THUNDER).
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. LOWS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS (AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES). THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO DEEP CLOUD COVER. STILL ONLY
EXPECT A VERY SLOW EXIT TO THE EAST OF THIS SOLUTION SO WILL LINGER
POPS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR SURE
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT BUT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO GO ALONG WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE
OR TWO WHICH WILL MAKE FOR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE READINGS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S DURING THE DAY AND THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE RISE DUE TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
ALL BETS ARE OFF NEXT WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY. SO WILL HAVE TO GO WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN
SATURDAY AND FRONTAL DRIVEN SUNDAY. FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS OF WELL
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MILD UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT LOW STRATUS...FOG AND THUS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN AND APN) THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL)
DRIVEN BY OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THOUGH BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO
MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







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