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000
FXUS63 KAPX 181026
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
626 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE DAY. DRIER...COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A RATHER
CLEAR...CHILLY NIGHT. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SATURDAY...AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN STARTING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. LOW CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WHILE BAND OF THICK
HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN PEELS OFF TO THE EAST. BUT
OVERALL ANTICIPATE A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME REDUCED VSBYS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER THE LAST
ONE TO TWO HOURS AND HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO COVER A GOOD PART
OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID MORNING.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LARGELY MIX OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MAY BE STUCK IN THE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WAVY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH ONE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES...SECOND WAVE ADVANCING
THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE GULF AND ANOTHER WAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE
PAC NW. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD/WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND WISCONSIN
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. BUT NRN MICHIGAN FINDING ITSELF UNDER
100+ KNOT JET STREAK STRETCHED SW-NE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT
LARGELY ON THE DESCENDING SIDE OF THE JET WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT PUNCHING UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. BUT THERE IS ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
MOVING UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN PULLING THICKER CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP UP ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ONE MORE VORTICITY
CENTER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ITSELF ROTATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.

TODAY...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH NRN MICHIGAN STUCK
LARGELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT...ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL
BE FOUND NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION WILL
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER ISSUES AS COOLER AIR SPREADS BACK INTO
THE STATE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER
NOTED ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO LAKE MICHIGAN
SOME OF WHICH HAS MADE INROADS INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. SO
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AND COUPLED WITH BAND OF
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WILL START THE DAY ON THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG
MID APRIL SUN/HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO THIN OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS TO A LARGE DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CIRRUS/
CIRROSTRATUS PEELS OFF TO THE EAST...LEADING TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT LARGELY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE SE STATES DUE TO NW DOWNSLOPING
FLOW.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE LEADING TO
QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH THICKER
HIGH CLOUDS PRESSING INTO NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WONDERING IF WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS EASTERN UPPER)
AND A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER RECENT OUR RECENT
PRECIP. BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

(4/19)SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS AND WARMS THINGS UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
THE LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE SFC LOW
APPROACHES. SO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN E
UPPER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE HELPS TO REINFORCE THE LIFT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO THE EVENING, WHICH MOVES INTO NW LOWER BY
06Z. SO LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY INTO NE LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST, BUT THE 500 MB
SPEEDMAX PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR THE DYNAMIC LIFT TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN OVER THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB.

(4/20)SUNDAY...THE MOISTURE AND THE FORCING CONTINUE INTO THE DAY,
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH ANOTHER 500 MB VORT MAX ENTERING
THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE, THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW THAT IS ALSO TAPPED INTO THIS SAME
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT, AS THE TWO FEATURES MOVE EAST, THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS AS THE SFC TROUGH BETWEEN
THE SFC LOWS DEVELOPS AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
THE RAIN CONTINUES. AT THIS POINT, THE QPF ON BOTH MODELS DOESN`T
LOOK PARTICULARLY HEAVY, BUT IT DOES SEEM TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS IF THE
FEATURES SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION TO RAIN HARDER OVER THE REGION.

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...(4/21)MONDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY, AND BEGINS TO COOL US ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS BEFORE THE COOL OFF. OF COURSE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE, THERE`S A CHANCE OF RAIN. (4/22)TUESDAY...WHILE THE SKY
CLEARS, THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL.
(4/23)WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH AND THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILD INTO THE
REGION, WARMING US UP AGAIN, BACK TO NORMAL. DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BASED ON THE 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE GFS, THINK IT IS OVERDOING
IT, AND WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF. (4/24)THURSDAY...THE WARM FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE FOREST AREA. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOWER CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS IN THE PROCESS OF EXPANDING INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS BLEEDS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND ILL-DEFINED FRONT. IMPACT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. WATCH OUT FOR SNEAKY BRIEF IFR
CIGS AT PLN. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT FOG (MIST) OUT THERE AS WELL
REDUCING VSBYS THROUGH MID MORNING.

BUT LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE/HEATING AND MIXING TAKES HOLD
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS MORNING
FROM THE NW TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT SOME FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
PLN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...ADAM









000
FXUS63 KAPX 180725
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE DAY. DRIER...COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN MICHIGAN...LEADING TO A RATHER
CLEAR...CHILLY NIGHT. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SATURDAY...AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
RAIN STARTING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WAVY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH ONE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES...SECOND WAVE ADVANCING
THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE GULF AND ANOTHER WAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE
PAC NW. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD/WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND WISCONSIN
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. BUT NRN MICHIGAN FINDING ITSELF UNDER
100+ KNOT JET STREAK STRETCHED SW-NE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT
LARGELY ON THE DESCENDING SIDE OF THE JET WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT PUNCHING UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. BUT THERE IS ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
MOVING UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN PULLING THICKER CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP UP ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ONE MORE VORTICITY
CENTER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ITSELF ROTATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.

TODAY...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH NRN MICHIGAN STUCK
LARGELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT...ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL
BE FOUND NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION WILL
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER ISSUES AS COOLER AIR SPREADS BACK INTO
THE STATE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER
NOTED ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO LAKE MICHIGAN
SOME OF WHICH HAS MADE INROADS INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. SO
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. AND COUPLED WITH BAND OF
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WILL START THE DAY ON THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG
MID APRIL SUN/HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO THIN OUT THE
LOWER CLOUDS TO A LARGE DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CIRRUS/
CIRROSTRATUS PEELS OFF TO THE EAST...LEADING TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT LARGELY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE SE STATES DUE TO NW DOWNSLOPING
FLOW.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE LEADING TO
QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH THICKER
HIGH CLOUDS PRESSING INTO NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WONDERING IF WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS EASTERN UPPER)
AND A STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER RECENT OUR RECENT
PRECIP. BUT JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

(4/19)SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST, THE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS AND WARMS THINGS UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
THE LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE SFC LOW
APPROACHES. SO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN E
UPPER.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE HELPS TO REINFORCE THE LIFT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO THE EVENING, WHICH MOVES INTO NW LOWER BY
06Z. SO LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY INTO NE LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST, BUT THE 500 MB
SPEEDMAX PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALLOWS
FOR THE DYNAMIC LIFT TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN OVER THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB.

(4/20)SUNDAY...THE MOISTURE AND THE FORCING CONTINUE INTO THE DAY,
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH ANOTHER 500 MB VORT MAX ENTERING
THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE, THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW THAT IS ALSO TAPPED INTO THIS SAME
RIBBON OF MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT, AS THE TWO FEATURES MOVE EAST, THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS AS THE SFC TROUGH BETWEEN
THE SFC LOWS DEVELOPS AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
THE RAIN CONTINUES. AT THIS POINT, THE QPF ON BOTH MODELS DOESN`T
LOOK PARTICULARLY HEAVY, BUT IT DOES SEEM TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS IF THE
FEATURES SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION TO RAIN HARDER OVER THE REGION.

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...(4/21)MONDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY, AND BEGINS TO COOL US ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS BEFORE THE COOL OFF. OF COURSE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE, THERE`S A CHANCE OF RAIN. (4/22)TUESDAY...WHILE THE SKY
CLEARS, THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL.
(4/23)WEDNESDAY...THE SFC HIGH AND THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILD INTO THE
REGION, WARMING US UP AGAIN, BACK TO NORMAL. DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BASED ON THE 850 MB MOISTURE ON THE GFS, THINK IT IS OVERDOING
IT, AND WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF. (4/24)THURSDAY...THE WARM FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE FOREST AREA. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH COOLER AIR BLEEDING INTO THE STATE IN ITS WAKE.
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR...BATCH OF LOWER CLOUD COVER JUST
UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN TRYING TO GET ACROSS THE LAKE. STILL THINK
THERES A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL SLIDE
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL
SITES. BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS FROM THE NW FOR THE DAYTIME WITH A FEW GUSTS GETTING INTO
THE TEENS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...ADAM










000
FXUS63 KAPX 180543
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
143 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM NE WI THROUGH UPPER MI THIS
EVENING THEN INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SUN AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN
MI...HEADING NE. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (OVER NORTHERN IL/LOWER MI/LAKE HURON)
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (OVER WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR). THUS
THERE IS NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP. WE WILL SE DEVELOPING
W/NW 1000-850MB FLOW OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS...WHICH WILL
DRAG SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
ALL TOLD...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. SOME FINE TUNING DONE
TO SKY COVER GRIDS. HAVE KICKED UP TEMPS IN NORTHERN LOWER
1-2F...AS COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 30F/LOWER 30S WILL BE AN OBSTACLE TO GETTING TOO
MUCH COLDER THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TONIGHT...MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND PCPN ASSOC WITH
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ONE OTHER THING
TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WHETHER A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE THUMB REGION LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THESE COUNTIES DRY AS MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST
LOW-LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TONIGHT
SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S OVER ERN UPPER MI TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE THUMB REGION.

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

500MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING INTO QUEBEC BY 6Z
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIP INTO MANITOBA...WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT OCCLUDED SFC LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THE OCCLUSION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER
MI...WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REACHING
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NIGHT IN THIS AREA. WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN UPPER MI
AND EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY SEE SNOW MIX IN TOWARDS LATE
MORNING WITH SFC LOW TS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...SHIFTING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A RAINY ONE...WITH SURFACE TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SNEAKS IN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES ONTARIO/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER
AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT FOR
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENING FORECAST. THE GEM/GFS SHIFT THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA...AS THE RIDGE AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ARE MUCH STRONGER. THE ECMWF FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE AND WEAKER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH HOLDS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
TUESDAY AM. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
CURRENT SOLUTION...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ALSO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AS ROUGHLY 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IMPACT TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH SHOWERS
GENERATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI BY THE GEM/GFS
DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LIKE THE ECMWF...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVOURS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS AN
AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH COOLER AIR BLEEDING INTO THE STATE IN ITS WAKE.
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COOL AIR...BATCH OF LOWER CLOUD COVER JUST
UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN TRYING TO GET ACROSS THE LAKE. STILL THINK
THERES A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS LOWER CLOUD COVER WILL SLIDE
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL
SITES. BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS FROM THE NW FOR THE DAYTIME WITH A FEW GUSTS GETTING INTO
THE TEENS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...VOSS
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...ADAM









000
FXUS63 KAPX 180150
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM NE WI THROUGH UPPER MI THIS
EVENING THEN INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SUN AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN
MI...HEADING NE. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (OVER NORTHERN IL/LOWER MI/LAKE HURON)
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (OVER WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR). THUS
THERE IS NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP. WE WILL SE DEVELOPING
W/NW 1000-850MB FLOW OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS...WHICH WILL
DRAG SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER.
ALL TOLD...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. SOME FINE TUNING DONE
TO SKY COVER GRIDS. HAVE KICKED UP TEMPS IN NORTHERN LOWER
1-2F...AS COLD/DRY ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 30F/LOWER 30S WILL BE AN OBSTACLE TO GETTING TOO
MUCH COLDER THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TONIGHT...MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND PCPN ASSOC WITH
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ONE OTHER THING
TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WHETHER A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE THUMB REGION LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THESE COUNTIES DRY AS MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST
LOW-LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TONIGHT
SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S OVER ERN UPPER MI TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE THUMB REGION.

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

500MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING INTO QUEBEC BY 6Z
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIP INTO MANITOBA...WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT OCCLUDED SFC LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THE OCCLUSION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER
MI...WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REACHING
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NIGHT IN THIS AREA. WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN UPPER MI
AND EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY SEE SNOW MIX IN TOWARDS LATE
MORNING WITH SFC LOW TS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...SHIFTING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A RAINY ONE...WITH SURFACE TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SNEAKS IN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES ONTARIO/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER
AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT FOR
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENING FORECAST. THE GEM/GFS SHIFT THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA...AS THE RIDGE AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ARE MUCH STRONGER. THE ECMWF FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE AND WEAKER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH HOLDS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
TUESDAY AM. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
CURRENT SOLUTION...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ALSO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AS ROUGHLY 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IMPACT TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH SHOWERS
GENERATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI BY THE GEM/GFS
DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LIKE THE ECMWF...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVOURS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS AN
AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR PERIODS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PLN/TVC/MBL.

DISORGANIZED AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA IN ITS WAKE. A LARGE AREA OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND UPPER MI...AND WILL SPILL EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT. THESE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
MIDDAY.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...NW WINDS BECOMING A TOUCH GUSTY ON FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...VOSS
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JZ








000
FXUS63 KAPX 172342
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
742 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM NE WI THROUGH UPPER MI THIS
EVENING THEN INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SUN AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TONIGHT...MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND PCPN ASSOC WITH
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ONE OTHER THING
TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WHETHER A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE THUMB REGION LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THESE COUNTIES DRY AS MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST
LOW-LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TONIGHT
SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S OVER ERN UPPER MI TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE THUMB REGION.

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

500MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING INTO QUEBEC BY 6Z
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIP INTO MANITOBA...WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT OCCLUDED SFC LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THE OCCLUSION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER
MI...WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REACHING
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NIGHT IN THIS AREA. WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN UPPER MI
AND EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY SEE SNOW MIX IN TOWARDS LATE
MORNING WITH SFC LOW TS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...SHIFTING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A RAINY ONE...WITH SURFACE TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SNEAKS IN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES ONTARIO/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER
AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT FOR
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENING FORECAST. THE GEM/GFS SHIFT THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA...AS THE RIDGE AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ARE MUCH STRONGER. THE ECMWF FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE AND WEAKER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH HOLDS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
TUESDAY AM. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
CURRENT SOLUTION...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ALSO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AS ROUGHLY 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IMPACT TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH SHOWERS
GENERATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI BY THE GEM/GFS
DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LIKE THE ECMWF...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVOURS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS AN
AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR PERIODS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PLN/TVC/MBL.

DISORGANIZED AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA IN ITS WAKE. A LARGE AREA OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND UPPER MI...AND WILL SPILL EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MI TONIGHT. THESE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
MIDDAY.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...NW WINDS BECOMING A TOUCH GUSTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VOSS
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JZ








000
FXUS63 KAPX 172029
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
429 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM NE WI THROUGH UPPER MI THIS
EVENING THEN INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SUN AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TONIGHT...MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND PCPN ASSOC WITH
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ONE OTHER THING
TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WHETHER A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE THUMB REGION LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THESE COUNTIES DRY AS MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST
LOW-LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TONIGHT
SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S OVER ERN UPPER MI TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE THUMB REGION.

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

500MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING INTO QUEBEC BY 6Z
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIP INTO MANITOBA...WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT OCCLUDED SFC LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THE OCCLUSION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER
MI...WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REACHING
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NIGHT IN THIS AREA. WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN UPPER MI
AND EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY SEE SNOW MIX IN TOWARDS LATE
MORNING WITH SFC LOW TS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...SHIFTING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A RAINY ONE...WITH SURFACE TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SNEAKS IN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES ONTARIO/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER
AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT FOR
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENING FORECAST. THE GEM/GFS SHIFT THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA...AS THE RIDGE AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ARE MUCH STRONGER. THE ECMWF FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE AND WEAKER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH HOLDS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
TUESDAY AM. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
CURRENT SOLUTION...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ALSO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AS ROUGHLY 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IMPACT TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH SHOWERS
GENERATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI BY THE GEM/GFS
DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LIKE THE ECMWF...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVOURS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS AN
AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 153 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING MVFR TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE WI WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT.
PRECIP WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES.

AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
COOLER AIR BLEEDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS
WILL LIKELY BE AT MBL AND TVC IN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WNW FLOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
SYNOPSIS...VOSS






000
FXUS63 KAPX 172012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/

WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM NE WI THROUGH UPPER MI THIS
EVENING THEN INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF LOWER MI THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM
IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SUN AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TONIGHT...MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC WEAKENING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND PCPN ASSOC WITH
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ONE OTHER THING
TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WHETHER A SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE THUMB REGION LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...LEFT THESE COUNTIES DRY AS MODEL SNDGS SUGGEST
LOW-LVLS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TONIGHT
SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S OVER ERN UPPER MI TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE THUMB REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 409 PM/...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY

500MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWING INTO QUEBEC BY 6Z
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIP INTO MANITOBA...WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT OCCLUDED SFC LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THE OCCLUSION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER
MI...WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REACHING
INTO THE EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NIGHT IN THIS AREA. WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S...EXPECT PTYPE TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN UPPER MI
AND EASTERN NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY SEE SNOW MIX IN TOWARDS LATE
MORNING WITH SFC LOW TS DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...SHIFTING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A RAINY ONE...WITH SURFACE TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S.

SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SNEAKS IN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN/LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES ONTARIO/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER
AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF BOTH THE RIDGE AND THE
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT FOR
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY EVENING FORECAST. THE GEM/GFS SHIFT THE FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA...AS THE RIDGE AND THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ARE MUCH STRONGER. THE ECMWF FAVORS A WEAKER RIDGE AND WEAKER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH HOLDS THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
TUESDAY AM. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS
CURRENT SOLUTION...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ALSO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AS ROUGHLY 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IMPACT TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH SHOWERS
GENERATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI BY THE GEM/GFS
DURING THE DAY. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LIKE THE ECMWF...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE CWA.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVOURS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS AN
AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI AND FAR
NORTH-NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 153 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING MVFR TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE WI WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT.
PRECIP WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES.

AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
COOLER AIR BLEEDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS
WILL LIKELY BE AT MBL AND TVC IN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WNW FLOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
SYNOPSIS...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 171752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN EXIT INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS
WILL GENERATE A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY. SOME SUN AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. TIGHT LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PRODUCING A NICE COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS FROM NRN
WISCONSIN/DULUTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SPRING SNOW TO THAT REGION. FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THIS CWA...WARM ADVECTION FORCING AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW NOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS
TO WEAKER OVERALL FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN WEATHER
PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL DAMPEN AND
SLOWLY ADVANCE UP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSED H8
AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTERS TRACK UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP STRONGEST DEFORMATION
FORCING/HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS BACK ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH
TODAY...PRETTY MUCH AS ANTICIPATED IN RECENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...
UPPER JET STREAK DOES TIGHTEN ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACK/FORCING CLIPPING
UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SATURATION DISTRIBUTION REMAINS FAIRLY
DISJOINTED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
EXCEPT MAYBE OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES.

SO...OVERALL EXPECTATIONS. ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ROUND OF SNOW
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK.
THEN...NEXT BATCH OF FORCING ROTATES UP INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY SKIRTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS NEXT BATCH...BUT IT WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. SFC LOW PUSHES ON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR SPREADING BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ENDING ANY PRECIP
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...SEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN SOME RAIN FOR EASTER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE BUT FAIRLY COOL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIKELY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND LINGER INTO
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS SOME AREAS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN LATER MONDAY AND HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING
ANOTHER SMALL STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE A LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE MAIN LONG
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA LEADING TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR
50 SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 153 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING MVFR TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE WI WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT.
PRECIP WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES.

AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
COOLER AIR BLEEDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS
WILL LIKELY BE AT MBL AND TVC IN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WNW FLOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

VOSS






000
FXUS63 KAPX 171109
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
709 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN EXIT INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS
WILL GENERATE A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY. SOME SUN AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. TIGHT LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PRODUCING A NICE COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS FROM NRN
WISCONSIN/DULUTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SPRING SNOW TO THAT REGION. FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THIS CWA...WARM ADVECTION FORCING AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW NOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS
TO WEAKER OVERALL FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN WEATHER
PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL DAMPEN AND
SLOWLY ADVANCE UP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSED H8
AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTERS TRACK UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP STRONGEST DEFORMATION
FORCING/HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS BACK ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH
TODAY...PRETTY MUCH AS ANTICIPATED IN RECENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...
UPPER JET STREAK DOES TIGHTEN ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACK/FORCING CLIPPING
UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SATURATION DISTRIBUTION REMAINS FAIRLY
DISJOINTED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
EXCEPT MAYBE OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES.

SO...OVERALL EXPECTATIONS. ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ROUND OF SNOW
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK.
THEN...NEXT BATCH OF FORCING ROTATES UP INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY SKIRTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS NEXT BATCH...BUT IT WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. SFC LOW PUSHES ON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR SPREADING BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ENDING ANY PRECIP
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...SEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN SOME RAIN FOR EASTER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE BUT FAIRLY COOL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIKELY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND LINGER INTO
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS SOME AREAS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN LATER MONDAY AND HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING
ANOTHER SMALL STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE A LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE MAIN LONG
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA LEADING TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR
50 SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING MVFR TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. BULK OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT FAR WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW WISCONSIN...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL
SKIRT UP THROUGH PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE CIGS REMAIN VFR.

LOW CROSSES NRN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
SPREADING BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN. OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COOLER AIR BLEEDS BACK IN
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT GREAT AND
CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TEMPORARILY THEN REBOUND TO VFR AFTER SFC
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS...SOME LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE SE LATER THIS MORNING AS DECENT
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
TURN INTO THE WEST AFTER PASSAGE OF THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 170834
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN EXIT INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS
WILL GENERATE A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER TODAY. SOME SUN AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RAIN IS THEN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. TIGHT LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PRODUCING A NICE COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS FROM NRN
WISCONSIN/DULUTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER SPRING SNOW TO THAT REGION. FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THIS CWA...WARM ADVECTION FORCING AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW NOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS NRN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS
TO WEAKER OVERALL FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM IS THE MAIN WEATHER
PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL DAMPEN AND
SLOWLY ADVANCE UP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOSED H8
AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTERS TRACK UP THROUGH FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP STRONGEST DEFORMATION
FORCING/HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS BACK ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH
TODAY...PRETTY MUCH AS ANTICIPATED IN RECENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...
UPPER JET STREAK DOES TIGHTEN ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACK/FORCING CLIPPING
UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SATURATION DISTRIBUTION REMAINS FAIRLY
DISJOINTED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP
EXCEPT MAYBE OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES.

SO...OVERALL EXPECTATIONS. ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ROUND OF SNOW
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A BREAK.
THEN...NEXT BATCH OF FORCING ROTATES UP INTO EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY SKIRTING NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS NEXT BATCH...BUT IT WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. SFC LOW PUSHES ON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR SPREADING BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ENDING ANY PRECIP
THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...SEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN SOME RAIN FOR EASTER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION FREE BUT FAIRLY COOL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIKELY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND LINGER INTO
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS SOME AREAS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN LATER MONDAY AND HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING
ANOTHER SMALL STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE A LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE MAIN LONG
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM FORECAST.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA LEADING TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR
50 SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU 06Z FRIDAY AS WIDESPREAD SNOW STAYS NORTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER PENINSULA.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR








000
FXUS63 KAPX 170535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
135 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THURSDAY. SOME SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES
OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

OVERVIEW: WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
WITHIN BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING...DAMPENING OUT AS IT LIFTS THRU THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  MODEST JET FORCING AND TIGHT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING WITH DRY SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SWATH OF
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST LOWER INTO EASTERN UPPER.  SNOWFALL
WILL BE DRIVEN BY JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS...PWATS OF
0.4"...PERSISTENT ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H8-H7 F-GEN.  FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL EXTEND LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SHORT LIVED NATURE
OF BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS.  SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MAY PICK UP
A QUICK LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWFALL
INTO THIS EVENING LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE PRIMARY WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH HAPPENING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WEST/NORTH OF
THE AREA.  SOME LIGHTER SNOWS POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER.  LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH THURSDAY/DRY AND COOL FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LINGERING HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES (WITH HYDROGRAPHS ON AREA RIVERS ON THE RECESSION LIMB).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FEATURES BROAD LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THOUGH OVERALL IS
PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN.  SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WITH A SPLITTING
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A PARTICULARLY WARM PATTERN TO START WITH PASSING WAVES
REINFORCING THE COOLER REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION NEXT
WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A WEAKENED STATE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HEIGHT FALLS FRIDAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING
SURFACE LOW THURSDAY...THREAT FOR RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DECENT QG
SUPPORT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION
IS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED WITH THE BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND CLIPPING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG
TRACK OF MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW OVER FAR WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND MAINLY RAIN (OR A MIX OVER THE REST
OF EASTERN UPPER) ELSEWHERE.  EXPECTED TO BE A WARMER DAY ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOLAR INSOLATION EXPECTED TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.  ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME...DECENT LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND MIXING OUT AHEAD OF IT
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
GUSTING 20 TO 30+MPH AND  STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST
LOWER.

COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY/
RIGHT REAR JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  OTHERWISE FRIDAY
AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD...SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND TO THE SOUTH
AND NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY):  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING...THOUGH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THIS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY.   COOL SATURDAY BEFORE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY):  NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU 06Z FRIDAY AS WIDESPREAD SNOW STAYS NORTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER PENINSULA.
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING...WITH
SOME LOW LAND FLOODING CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR.
BECAUSE OF LINGERING FLOOD ISSUES...WILL EXTEND THE COUNTY BASED
FLOOD WARNING FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...JK








000
FXUS63 KAPX 162347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THURSDAY. SOME SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES
OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

OVERVIEW: WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
WITHIN BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING...DAMPENING OUT AS IT LIFTS THRU THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  MODEST JET FORCING AND TIGHT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING WITH DRY SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SWATH OF
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST LOWER INTO EASTERN UPPER.  SNOWFALL
WILL BE DRIVEN BY JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS...PWATS OF
0.4"...PERSISTENT ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H8-H7 F-GEN.  FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL EXTEND LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SHORT LIVED NATURE
OF BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS.  SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MAY PICK UP
A QUICK LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWFALL
INTO THIS EVENING LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE PRIMARY WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH HAPPENING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WEST/NORTH OF
THE AREA.  SOME LIGHTER SNOWS POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER.  LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH THURSDAY/DRY AND COOL FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LINGERING HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES (WITH HYDROGRAPHS ON AREA RIVERS ON THE RECESSION LIMB).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FEATURES BROAD LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THOUGH OVERALL IS
PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN.  SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WITH A SPLITTING
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A PARTICULARLY WARM PATTERN TO START WITH PASSING WAVES
REINFORCING THE COOLER REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION NEXT
WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A WEAKENED STATE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HEIGHT FALLS FRIDAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING
SURFACE LOW THURSDAY...THREAT FOR RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DECENT QG
SUPPORT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION
IS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED WITH THE BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND CLIPPING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG
TRACK OF MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW OVER FAR WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND MAINLY RAIN (OR A MIX OVER THE REST
OF EASTERN UPPER) ELSEWHERE.  EXPECTED TO BE A WARMER DAY ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOLAR INSOLATION EXPECTED TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.  ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME...DECENT LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND MIXING OUT AHEAD OF IT
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
GUSTING 20 TO 30+MPH AND  STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST
LOWER.

COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY/
RIGHT REAR JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  OTHERWISE FRIDAY
AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD...SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND TO THE SOUTH
AND NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY):  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING...THOUGH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THIS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY.   COOL SATURDAY BEFORE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY):  NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 00Z FRIDAY DESPITE SOME LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING MAINLY THE
TIP OF THE MITT (PLN) THIS EVENING. LLWS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW LWR
MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING...WITH
SOME LOW LAND FLOODING CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR.
BECAUSE OF LINGERING FLOOD ISSUES...WILL EXTEND THE COUNTY BASED
FLOOD WARNING FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...JK








000
FXUS63 KAPX 162022
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THURSDAY. SOME SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES
OVER ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

OVERVIEW: WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
WITHIN BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING...DAMPENING OUT AS IT LIFTS THRU THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  MODEST JET FORCING AND TIGHT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING WITH DRY SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SWATH OF
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST LOWER INTO EASTERN UPPER.  SNOWFALL
WILL BE DRIVEN BY JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS...PWATS OF
0.4"...PERSISTENT ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H8-H7 F-GEN.  FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL EXTEND LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SHORT LIVED NATURE
OF BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS.  SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MAY PICK UP
A QUICK LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWFALL
INTO THIS EVENING LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE 1-3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE PRIMARY WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW PUSHES TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH HAPPENING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WEST/NORTH OF
THE AREA.  SOME LIGHTER SNOWS POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER.  LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH THURSDAY/DRY AND COOL FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LINGERING HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES (WITH HYDROGRAPHS ON AREA RIVERS ON THE RECESSION LIMB).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FEATURES BROAD LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THOUGH OVERALL IS
PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN.  SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WITH A SPLITTING
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THIS WEEKEND.
NOT A PARTICULARLY WARM PATTERN TO START WITH PASSING WAVES
REINFORCING THE COOLER REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION NEXT
WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A WEAKENED STATE THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HEIGHT FALLS FRIDAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING
SURFACE LOW THURSDAY...THREAT FOR RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DECENT QG
SUPPORT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION
IS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED WITH THE BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND CLIPPING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG
TRACK OF MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW OVER FAR WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND MAINLY RAIN (OR A MIX OVER THE REST
OF EASTERN UPPER) ELSEWHERE.  EXPECTED TO BE A WARMER DAY ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOLAR INSOLATION EXPECTED TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.  ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING
WITH TIME...DECENT LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND MIXING OUT AHEAD OF IT
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
GUSTING 20 TO 30+MPH AND  STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST
LOWER.

COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY/
RIGHT REAR JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  OTHERWISE FRIDAY
AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD...SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND TO THE SOUTH
AND NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY):  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING...THOUGH INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THIS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY.   COOL SATURDAY BEFORE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY):  NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.  SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE THE RULE INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS LOWERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT PLN THIS EVENING.

WINDS...GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS TODAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KTS. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH RESULTING IN LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL
THRU 14Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING...WITH
SOME LOW LAND FLOODING CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR.
BECAUSE OF LINGERING FLOOD ISSUES...WILL EXTEND THE COUNTY BASED
FLOOD WARNING FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JK








000
FXUS63 KAPX 161729
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

SMALL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING HITTING THE GROUND. SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS WING OF WAA MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

SHARP MID LEVEL THERMAL/TROUGH AXIS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...PART OF A LARGER SCALE LONG
WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CONUS. RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST WITH ANOTHER
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

HERE AT HOME...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. HAD SOME RESIDUAL MESOSCALE LAKE CONVECTION
(THAT HAD ORIGINS FROM YESTERDAYS STCU FIELD OVER NRN WISCONSIN/
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) ROLL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME VERY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THATS PRETTY MUCH DONE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A THIN CORRIDOR OF STRATUS/STCU STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND APPEARS
ATTACHED TO TERRAIN IN EASTERN ANTRIM COUNTY. ALSO SOME SCT LAKE
STCU CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE SW COUNTIES.
JUST YOUR TYPICAL MID APRIL LAKE EFFECT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST PART OF THE DAY STARTS OUT UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL HANG
ON TO AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/STCU OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN...THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME FOG OUT THERE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED/TEMPS DROPPED. THEN...AN INTERESTING LITTLE SYSTEM FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
WYOMING THIS MORNING SLATED TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THIS EVENING...THEN DAMPEN AND LIFT UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NICE TIGHT LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH WILL BRING A COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS (COUPLED WITH
MODEST UPPER JET FORCING) AND A PERIOD OF HEFTIER SNOW FROM
MINNESOTA THROUGH NW WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER
FOR THE GREAT LAKES JUST WON/T GIVE UP.

FOR NRN LOWER/ERN UPPER MICHIGAN...SYSTEM NOT LOOKING TO HAVE QUITE
THE IMPACT AS ONCE THOUGHT. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED
THE SYSTEM TRACK A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD AND SLOWER...AND AGAIN DRAGS
STRONGEST DEFORMATION/UPPER JET FORCING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR US...DECENT
WARM ADVECTION WING DOES DEVELOP AND SWINGS THROUGH NRN LOWER INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BUT...DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL LARGELY KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE BETTER UPPER JET FORCING AND TOP DOWN SATURATION
FINALLY GETS SNOW GOING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE TIP
OF THE MITT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERSISTING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN...HEFTIER SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREAS BACK TO THE WEST. PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MAY PICK
UP 2 TO 3 INCHES (MAYBE A 4 INCH AMOUNT) WHERE SNOW PERSISTS THE
LONGEST. BUT NOT PLANNING ANY TYPE OF HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...NOT AS COLD AS RECENTLY WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A LITTLE LATER THURSDAY RIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN TALKED
ABOUT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG WARM-UP IS
IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EASTER SUNDAY HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THURSDAY...THE INVERTED TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING EASTERN
UPPER A LITTLE MORE SNOW...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
FROM OUR SOUTH EXPECTED TO BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FAR NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
FRIDAY TO SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.
HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE THE RULE INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS LOWERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT PLN THIS EVENING.

WINDS...GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS TODAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25KTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH RESULTING
IN LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL THRU 14Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KAPX 161132
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
732 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

SHARP MID LEVEL THERMAL/TROUGH AXIS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...PART OF A LARGER SCALE LONG
WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CONUS. RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST WITH ANOTHER
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

HERE AT HOME...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. HAD SOME RESIDUAL MESOSCALE LAKE CONVECTION
(THAT HAD ORIGINS FROM YESTERDAYS STCU FIELD OVER NRN WISCONSIN/
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) ROLL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME VERY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THATS PRETTY MUCH DONE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A THIN CORRIDOR OF STRATUS/STCU STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND APPEARS
ATTACHED TO TERRAIN IN EASTERN ANTRIM COUNTY. ALSO SOME SCT LAKE
STCU CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE SW COUNTIES.
JUST YOUR TYPICAL MID APRIL LAKE EFFECT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST PART OF THE DAY STARTS OUT UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL HANG
ON TO AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/STCU OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN...THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME FOG OUT THERE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED/TEMPS DROPPED. THEN...AN INTERESTING LITTLE SYSTEM FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
WYOMING THIS MORNING SLATED TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THIS EVENING...THEN DAMPEN AND LIFT UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NICE TIGHT LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH WILL BRING A COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS (COUPLED WITH
MODEST UPPER JET FORCING) AND A PERIOD OF HEFTIER SNOW FROM
MINNESOTA THROUGH NW WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER
FOR THE GREAT LAKES JUST WON/T GIVE UP.

FOR NRN LOWER/ERN UPPER MICHIGAN...SYSTEM NOT LOOKING TO HAVE QUITE
THE IMPACT AS ONCE THOUGHT. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED
THE SYSTEM TRACK A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD AND SLOWER...AND AGAIN DRAGS
STRONGEST DEFORMATION/UPPER JET FORCING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR US...DECENT
WARM ADVECTION WING DOES DEVELOP AND SWINGS THROUGH NRN LOWER INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BUT...DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL LARGELY KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE BETTER UPPER JET FORCING AND TOP DOWN SATURATION
FINALLY GETS SNOW GOING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE TIP
OF THE MITT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERSISTING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN...HEFTIER SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREAS BACK TO THE WEST. PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MAY PICK
UP 2 TO 3 INCHES (MAYBE A 4 INCH AMOUNT) WHERE SNOW PERSISTS THE
LONGEST. BUT NOT PLANNING ANY TYPE OF HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...NOT AS COLD AS RECENTLY WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A LITTLE LATER THURSDAY RIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN TALKED
ABOUT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG WARM-UP IS
IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EASTER SUNDAY HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THURSDAY...THE INVERTED TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING EASTERN
UPPER A LITTLE MORE SNOW...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
FROM OUR SOUTH EXPECTED TO BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FAR NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
FRIDAY TO SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.
HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT PLN DUE TO GROUND FOG THIS MORNING
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 13Z TO 14Z. VFR ELSEWHERE TO START THE
DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS LOWERING A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS INTO THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT PLN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS...MAINLY 1J0 KNOTS OR LESS BUT WILL BE INCREASING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LLWS ANTICIPATED AT PLN/TVC/MBL TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 160845
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
445 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

SHARP MID LEVEL THERMAL/TROUGH AXIS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...PART OF A LARGER SCALE LONG
WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CONUS. RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST WITH ANOTHER
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

HERE AT HOME...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. HAD SOME RESIDUAL MESOSCALE LAKE CONVECTION
(THAT HAD ORIGINS FROM YESTERDAYS STCU FIELD OVER NRN WISCONSIN/
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) ROLL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME VERY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THATS PRETTY MUCH DONE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A THIN CORRIDOR OF STRATUS/STCU STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND APPEARS
ATTACHED TO TERRAIN IN EASTERN ANTRIM COUNTY. ALSO SOME SCT LAKE
STCU CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE SW COUNTIES.
JUST YOUR TYPICAL MID APRIL LAKE EFFECT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST PART OF THE DAY STARTS OUT UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL HANG
ON TO AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/STCU OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN...THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME FOG OUT THERE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED/TEMPS DROPPED. THEN...AN INTERESTING LITTLE SYSTEM FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
WYOMING THIS MORNING SLATED TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THIS EVENING...THEN DAMPEN AND LIFT UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NICE TIGHT LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH WILL BRING A COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS (COUPLED WITH
MODEST UPPER JET FORCING) AND A PERIOD OF HEFTIER SNOW FROM
MINNESOTA THROUGH NW WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER
FOR THE GREAT LAKES JUST WON/T GIVE UP.

FOR NRN LOWER/ERN UPPER MICHIGAN...SYSTEM NOT LOOKING TO HAVE QUITE
THE IMPACT AS ONCE THOUGHT. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED
THE SYSTEM TRACK A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD AND SLOWER...AND AGAIN DRAGS
STRONGEST DEFORMATION/UPPER JET FORCING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR US...DECENT
WARM ADVECTION WING DOES DEVELOP AND SWINGS THROUGH NRN LOWER INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BUT...DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL LARGELY KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE BETTER UPPER JET FORCING AND TOP DOWN SATURATION
FINALLY GETS SNOW GOING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE TIP
OF THE MITT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERSISTING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN...HEFTIER SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREAS BACK TO THE WEST. PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MAY PICK
UP 2 TO 3 INCHES (MAYBE A 4 INCH AMOUNT) WHERE SNOW PERSISTS THE
LONGEST. BUT NOT PLANNING ANY TYPE OF HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...NOT AS COLD AS RECENTLY WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A LITTLE LATER THURSDAY RIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN TALKED
ABOUT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG WARM-UP IS
IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EASTER SUNDAY HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THURSDAY...THE INVERTED TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING EASTERN
UPPER A LITTLE MORE SNOW...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
FROM OUR SOUTH EXPECTED TO BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FAR NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
FRIDAY TO SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.
HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS NOW TRAVERSING NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALREADY
OUT OF THE PLN AREA AT THIS POINT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR A
BIT LONGER AT TVC/MBL WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...EXPECT BOUTS OF FOG
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN...INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SE AT AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR/ADAM









000
FXUS63 KAPX 160550
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND UNSEASONAL COLD CANADIAN
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA...KEEPING MOST THE ACTION UP THERE FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE LOWER...AND SHIFTING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
THE LOWER PENINSULA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR HUNTING
EGGS...AS ANOTHER SLOPPY SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

RESIDUAL MESOSCALE SNOW SHOWERS (THAT HAD ORIGINS FROM YESTERDAYS
STCU FIELD OVER NRN WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) TRAVERSING
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 3 AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY HANG ON ACROSS THE
SW COUNTIES WHERE ICE COVERAGE IS DIMINISHED.

OTHERWISE...WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT...TEMPS ARE FALLING
QUICK. ALREADY DOWN TO 10F AT PLN AND 5F AT ERY. AND GIVEN RECENT
RAINS...SOME FOG CERTAINLY A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE STRAITS AND TIP OF THE
MITT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHORT WAVE
SEEMS TO BE PERPETUATING OUR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...FOCUSING THE GREATEST POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THESE AREAS...AND EXTENDED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOUR AS WELL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ENDING
BY AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NEARLY STRAIT
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

INTRIGUING LITTLE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WITH NO MAJOR FORECAST ISSUES...SAVE FOR HOW COLD TEMPS WILL GET
TONIGHT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN SET ANY RECORDS. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS PLACES RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AS H8 TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE -15
TO -17C RANGE. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE LAKES
DID THEIR THING EARLY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BAND UP SOME
STREAMERS...WHILE DIURNAL DISRUPTION IS TAKING ITS TOLL THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING MORE THINGS INTO A MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE
WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HELPS DIMINISH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. A
LOOK UPSTREAM INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND WISCONSIN SHOWS A MUCH MORE
ROBUST STRATOCU DECK WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND QUITE STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND (OF
COURSE) SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

IT IS THIS FEATURE OF INTEREST INTO THE EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT
HINTS FOR A FEW DAYS ON WEAK INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ARCING FROM THE CENTRAL U.P. TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 00-05Z. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM
PROGS...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THIS AXIS OF STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING SOME LIFE AS
THEY TRACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. DON`T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL...BUT GIVEN SAID
REMNANT INSTABILITY...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE ENOUGH TO
(RE)WHITEN THE GROUND. IN THIS SETUP...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY AS
THE WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY BE LIMITED...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE GIVEN
THE ALREADY COLD START AND HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SLIDING OVERHEAD
THAT WE CAN MUSTER READINGS DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND PROBABLY
SINGLE DIGITS IN SPOTS. THESE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME
RECORD VALUES IN MANY SPOTS...BEFORE THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN
AFTER 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY -
THURSDAY OVER EASTERN U.P.  LOWER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD.  THIS HAS USHERED IN A CHILLY AIRMASS CHANGE
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WITH A RETURN TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  THE
PRIMARY UPSTREAM CHANGE IN THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH
WILL HELP REINVIGORATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC JET CAUSING THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE.

WITH THIS TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LONG TERM RIDGE-TROUGH LOCATIONS
CHANGE LITTLE...WHICH INDICATES THAT DESPITE THE IMPLIED WARM UP OF
A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW...THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH 10 DAYS
FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MIDDLE RANGE /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/:

COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN OVER
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO WILL RACE SOUTH AND EAST AND TEAM UP WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A COMPACT
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING...LLEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING UNDER DRY SOUTHEASTERLY LLEVEL FLOW.  THUS...EXPECT
A DRY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION PROCESS TO COMPLETE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT FROM THE STRAITS NORTH WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF THIS
FROM M-32 NORTH.  AMAZINGLY...PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE IN QUESTION WITH
RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW
AS LLEVELS SATURATE.  ALWAYS TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN APRIL
DURING THE DAYTIME...SO SEE NO MORE THAN A COATING...PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY SURFACES THROUGH EVENING.  HIGHS STUCK NEAR FREEZING IN
EASTERN UPPER...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PERHAPS SOME
FILTERED SUN IN NORTHERN LOWER.

CONFIDENCE A LITTLE SHAKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WEAKENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DAMPENS IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENT FLOW.  GULF MOISTURE IS LACKING...WITH PWATS MAKING A RUN
AT 0.5-0.6".  THESE VALUES...WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AREN/T BAD
DURING A POTENTIAL SNOW-PRODUCING SCENARIO.  SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH AS A BAND OF H8-7 FGEN IN
THE REGION OF MODEST QVECTOR SUPPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD
FAVOR A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  PRIMARY
QUESTIONS ARE HOW RAPIDLY THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH AND...WITH A PRETTY
WEAK LLJ RESPONSE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW...JUST HOW INTENSE
THE BANDING WILL BE.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN NEAR-ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL /BEST ESTIMATE 2-4?/...WITH A VERY QUICK DROP OFF TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER.  LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S
SOUTH...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WASH OUT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WANING AS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.  OUTSIDE OF
ANY RESIDUAL SNOW /EVEN MIXING WITH RAIN AT THIS POINT/ OVER EASTERN
UPPER EARLY...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRAS OVER NORTHERN
LOWER AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW
INSTABILITY.  T9 REACH +3 OVER NORTHERN LOWER SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50...WITH HIGHS STUCK AT OR BELOW 40 OVER EASTERN
UPPER WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NEVER ARRIVES.

HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER SNEAKY POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CATCHES UP TO DEPARTING MOISTURE PLUME IN
THE PRESENCE OF A 100KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TO PROMOTE A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW GIVEN
STRONG ENOUGH RATES...WITH A FEW WET INCHES OF SNOW CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND MATERIALIZES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.  LOWS LOOK TO FALL TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30.

ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING UNDER COLD ADVECTION.  COLD
ADVECTION TAKES T9 TO AROUND -4C BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING THAT
WHILE THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING...AND EVEN SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS
OF SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S OVER EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER WITH 40S OVER NE LOWER
LIKELY MELTING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED RANGE /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/:

ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE FAVORED THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD AS THE GGEM A
STARK OUTLIER AND NOT CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS FROM SUGGESTED
FROM HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE PROMISING ANOTHER BREAK WEATHER-WISE...BUT CONTINUATION OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT WEAKENS AS WE REACH SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS OF A RETURN OF THE GULF MOISTURE STREAM AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SHOWER CHANCES
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD /PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER/
BUT WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  AIRMASS ALOFT
SLOWLY MODERATES...BUT WITH CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
DECENT CHANCES THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS MAY END UP COOLER STILL.

THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT IN COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD BY TUESDAY WHICH
PROMISES ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH /SORRY FOR THE BROKEN
RECORD/ CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS NOW TRAVERSING NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALREADY
OUT OF THE PLN AREA AT THIS POINT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR A
BIT LONGER AT TVC/MBL WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...EXPECT BOUTS OF FOG
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN...INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SE AT AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

STILL QUITE A FEW ISSUES ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BASED ON
CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...THOUGH THEY AREA FALLING WITH TIME. WILL GIVE
THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING ONE MORE BOOST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND SEE WHERE THINGS TAKE US. PLENTY OF ACTION WITH AN ONGOING DAM
BREAK IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ROSCOMMON COUNTY...BUT PER EMERGENCY
MANAGER REPORTS...WAVER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE POND
UPSTREAM OF THE DAM HAS BASICALLY EMPTIED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AT WHICH TIME MANY OF THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MR/ADAM
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 160217
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND UNSEASONAL COLD CANADIAN
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA...KEEPING MOST THE ACTION UP THERE FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE LOWER...AND SHIFTING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
THE LOWER PENINSULA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR HUNTING
EGGS...AS ANOTHER SLOPPY SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE STRAITS AND TIP OF THE
MITT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHORT WAVE
SEEMS TO BE PERPETUATING OUR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...FOCUSING THE GREATEST POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THESE AREAS...AND EXTENDED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOUR AS WELL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK OVERNIGHT
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ENDING
BY AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NEARLY STRAIT
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

INTRIGUING LITTLE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WITH NO MAJOR FORECAST ISSUES...SAVE FOR HOW COLD TEMPS WILL GET
TONIGHT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN SET ANY RECORDS. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS PLACES RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AS H8 TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE -15
TO -17C RANGE. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE LAKES
DID THEIR THING EARLY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BAND UP SOME
STREAMERS...WHILE DIURNAL DISRUPTION IS TAKING ITS TOLL THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING MORE THINGS INTO A MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE
WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HELPS DIMINISH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. A
LOOK UPSTREAM INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND WISCONSIN SHOWS A MUCH MORE
ROBUST STRATOCU DECK WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND QUITE STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND (OF
COURSE) SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

IT IS THIS FEATURE OF INTEREST INTO THE EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT
HINTS FOR A FEW DAYS ON WEAK INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ARCING FROM THE CENTRAL U.P. TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 00-05Z. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM
PROGS...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THIS AXIS OF STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING SOME LIFE AS
THEY TRACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. DON`T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL...BUT GIVEN SAID
REMNANT INSTABILITY...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE ENOUGH TO
(RE)WHITEN THE GROUND. IN THIS SETUP...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY AS
THE WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY BE LIMITED...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE GIVEN
THE ALREADY COLD START AND HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SLIDING OVERHEAD
THAT WE CAN MUSTER READINGS DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND PROBABLY
SINGLE DIGITS IN SPOTS. THESE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME
RECORD VALUES IN MANY SPOTS...BEFORE THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN
AFTER 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY -
THURSDAY OVER EASTERN U.P.  LOWER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD.  THIS HAS USHERED IN A CHILLY AIRMASS CHANGE
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WITH A RETURN TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  THE
PRIMARY UPSTREAM CHANGE IN THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH
WILL HELP REINVIGORATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC JET CAUSING THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE.

WITH THIS TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LONG TERM RIDGE-TROUGH LOCATIONS
CHANGE LITTLE...WHICH INDICATES THAT DESPITE THE IMPLIED WARM UP OF
A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW...THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH 10 DAYS
FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MIDDLE RANGE /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/:

COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN OVER
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO WILL RACE SOUTH AND EAST AND TEAM UP WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A COMPACT
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING...LLEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING UNDER DRY SOUTHEASTERLY LLEVEL FLOW.  THUS...EXPECT
A DRY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION PROCESS TO COMPLETE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT FROM THE STRAITS NORTH WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF THIS
FROM M-32 NORTH.  AMAZINGLY...PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE IN QUESTION WITH
RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW
AS LLEVELS SATURATE.  ALWAYS TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN APRIL
DURING THE DAYTIME...SO SEE NO MORE THAN A COATING...PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY SURFACES THROUGH EVENING.  HIGHS STUCK NEAR FREEZING IN
EASTERN UPPER...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PERHAPS SOME
FILTERED SUN IN NORTHERN LOWER.

CONFIDENCE A LITTLE SHAKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WEAKENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DAMPENS IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENT FLOW.  GULF MOISTURE IS LACKING...WITH PWATS MAKING A RUN
AT 0.5-0.6".  THESE VALUES...WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AREN/T BAD
DURING A POTENTIAL SNOW-PRODUCING SCENARIO.  SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH AS A BAND OF H8-7 FGEN IN
THE REGION OF MODEST QVECTOR SUPPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD
FAVOR A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  PRIMARY
QUESTIONS ARE HOW RAPIDLY THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH AND...WITH A PRETTY
WEAK LLJ RESPONSE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW...JUST HOW INTENSE
THE BANDING WILL BE.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN NEAR-ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL /BEST ESTIMATE 2-4?/...WITH A VERY QUICK DROP OFF TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER.  LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S
SOUTH...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WASH OUT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WANING AS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.  OUTSIDE OF
ANY RESIDUAL SNOW /EVEN MIXING WITH RAIN AT THIS POINT/ OVER EASTERN
UPPER EARLY...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRAS OVER NORTHERN
LOWER AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW
INSTABILITY.  T9 REACH +3 OVER NORTHERN LOWER SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50...WITH HIGHS STUCK AT OR BELOW 40 OVER EASTERN
UPPER WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NEVER ARRIVES.

HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER SNEAKY POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CATCHES UP TO DEPARTING MOISTURE PLUME IN
THE PRESENCE OF A 100KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TO PROMOTE A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW GIVEN
STRONG ENOUGH RATES...WITH A FEW WET INCHES OF SNOW CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND MATERIALIZES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.  LOWS LOOK TO FALL TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30.

ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING UNDER COLD ADVECTION.  COLD
ADVECTION TAKES T9 TO AROUND -4C BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING THAT
WHILE THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING...AND EVEN SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS
OF SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S OVER EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER WITH 40S OVER NE LOWER
LIKELY MELTING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED RANGE /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/:

ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE FAVORED THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD AS THE GGEM A
STARK OUTLIER AND NOT CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS FROM SUGGESTED
FROM HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE PROMISING ANOTHER BREAK WEATHER-WISE...BUT CONTINUATION OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT WEAKENS AS WE REACH SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS OF A RETURN OF THE GULF MOISTURE STREAM AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SHOWER CHANCES
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD /PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER/
BUT WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  AIRMASS ALOFT
SLOWLY MODERATES...BUT WITH CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
DECENT CHANCES THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS MAY END UP COOLER STILL.

THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT IN COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD BY TUESDAY WHICH
PROMISES ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH /SORRY FOR THE BROKEN
RECORD/ CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 00Z
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER MICHIGAN. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT PLN WHERE LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...AND THEN
INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AT
AROUND 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

STILL QUITE A FEW ISSUES ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BASED ON
CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...THOUGH THEY AREA FALLING WITH TIME. WILL GIVE
THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING ONE MORE BOOST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND SEE WHERE THINGS TAKE US. PLENTY OF ACTION WITH AN ONGOING DAM
BREAK IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ROSCOMMON COUNTY...BUT PER EMERGENCY
MANAGER REPORTS...WAVER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE POND
UPSTREAM OF THE DAM HAS BASICALLY EMPTIED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AT WHICH TIME MANY OF THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 152330
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
730 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND UNSEASONAL COLD CANADIAN
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA...KEEPING MOST THE ACTION UP THERE FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE LOWER...AND SHIFTING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
THE LOWER PENINSULA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR HUNTING
EGGS...AS ANOTHER SLOPPY SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

INTRIGUING LITTLE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WITH NO MAJOR FORECAST ISSUES...SAVE FOR HOW COLD TEMPS WILL GET
TONIGHT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN SET ANY RECORDS. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS PLACES RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AS H8 TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE -15
TO -17C RANGE. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE LAKES
DID THEIR THING EARLY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BAND UP SOME
STREAMERS...WHILE DIURNAL DISRUPTION IS TAKING ITS TOLL THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING MORE THINGS INTO A MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE
WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HELPS DIMINISH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. A
LOOK UPSTREAM INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND WISCONSIN SHOWS A MUCH MORE
ROBUST STRATOCU DECK WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND QUITE STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND (OF
COURSE) SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

IT IS THIS FEATURE OF INTEREST INTO THE EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT
HINTS FOR A FEW DAYS ON WEAK INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ARCING FROM THE CENTRAL U.P. TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 00-05Z. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM
PROGS...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THIS AXIS OF STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING SOME LIFE AS
THEY TRACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. DON`T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL...BUT GIVEN SAID
REMNANT INSTABILITY...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE ENOUGH TO
(RE)WHITEN THE GROUND. IN THIS SETUP...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY AS
THE WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY BE LIMITED...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE GIVEN
THE ALREADY COLD START AND HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SLIDING OVERHEAD
THAT WE CAN MUSTER READINGS DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND PROBABLY
SINGLE DIGITS IN SPOTS. THESE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME
RECORD VALUES IN MANY SPOTS...BEFORE THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN
AFTER 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY -
THURSDAY OVER EASTERN U.P.  LOWER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD.  THIS HAS USHERED IN A CHILLY AIRMASS CHANGE
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WITH A RETURN TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  THE
PRIMARY UPSTREAM CHANGE IN THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH
WILL HELP REINVIGORATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC JET CAUSING THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE.

WITH THIS TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LONG TERM RIDGE-TROUGH LOCATIONS
CHANGE LITTLE...WHICH INDICATES THAT DESPITE THE IMPLIED WARM UP OF
A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW...THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH 10 DAYS
FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MIDDLE RANGE /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/:

COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN OVER
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO WILL RACE SOUTH AND EAST AND TEAM UP WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A COMPACT
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING...LLEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING UNDER DRY SOUTHEASTERLY LLEVEL FLOW.  THUS...EXPECT
A DRY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION PROCESS TO COMPLETE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT FROM THE STRAITS NORTH WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF THIS
FROM M-32 NORTH.  AMAZINGLY...PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE IN QUESTION WITH
RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW
AS LLEVELS SATURATE.  ALWAYS TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN APRIL
DURING THE DAYTIME...SO SEE NO MORE THAN A COATING...PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY SURFACES THROUGH EVENING.  HIGHS STUCK NEAR FREEZING IN
EASTERN UPPER...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PERHAPS SOME
FILTERED SUN IN NORTHERN LOWER.

CONFIDENCE A LITTLE SHAKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WEAKENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DAMPENS IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENT FLOW.  GULF MOISTURE IS LACKING...WITH PWATS MAKING A RUN
AT 0.5-0.6".  THESE VALUES...WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AREN/T BAD
DURING A POTENTIAL SNOW-PRODUCING SCENARIO.  SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH AS A BAND OF H8-7 FGEN IN
THE REGION OF MODEST QVECTOR SUPPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD
FAVOR A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  PRIMARY
QUESTIONS ARE HOW RAPIDLY THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH AND...WITH A PRETTY
WEAK LLJ RESPONSE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW...JUST HOW INTENSE
THE BANDING WILL BE.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN NEAR-ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL /BEST ESTIMATE 2-4?/...WITH A VERY QUICK DROP OFF TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER.  LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S
SOUTH...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WASH OUT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WANING AS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.  OUTSIDE OF
ANY RESIDUAL SNOW /EVEN MIXING WITH RAIN AT THIS POINT/ OVER EASTERN
UPPER EARLY...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRAS OVER NORTHERN
LOWER AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW
INSTABILITY.  T9 REACH +3 OVER NORTHERN LOWER SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50...WITH HIGHS STUCK AT OR BELOW 40 OVER EASTERN
UPPER WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NEVER ARRIVES.

HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER SNEAKY POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CATCHES UP TO DEPARTING MOISTURE PLUME IN
THE PRESENCE OF A 100KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TO PROMOTE A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW GIVEN
STRONG ENOUGH RATES...WITH A FEW WET INCHES OF SNOW CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND MATERIALIZES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.  LOWS LOOK TO FALL TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30.

ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING UNDER COLD ADVECTION.  COLD
ADVECTION TAKES T9 TO AROUND -4C BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING THAT
WHILE THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING...AND EVEN SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS
OF SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S OVER EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER WITH 40S OVER NE LOWER
LIKELY MELTING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED RANGE /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/:

ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE FAVORED THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD AS THE GGEM A
STARK OUTLIER AND NOT CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS FROM SUGGESTED
FROM HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE PROMISING ANOTHER BREAK WEATHER-WISE...BUT CONTINUATION OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT WEAKENS AS WE REACH SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS OF A RETURN OF THE GULF MOISTURE STREAM AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SHOWER CHANCES
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD /PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER/
BUT WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  AIRMASS ALOFT
SLOWLY MODERATES...BUT WITH CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
DECENT CHANCES THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS MAY END UP COOLER STILL.

THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT IN COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD BY TUESDAY WHICH
PROMISES ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH /SORRY FOR THE BROKEN
RECORD/ CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 00Z
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER MICHIGAN. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT PLN WHERE LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING...AND THEN
INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AT
AROUND 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

STILL QUITE A FEW ISSUES ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BASED ON
CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...THOUGH THEY AREA FALLING WITH TIME. WILL GIVE
THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING ONE MORE BOOST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND SEE WHERE THINGS TAKE US. PLENTY OF ACTION WITH AN ONGOING DAM
BREAK IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ROSCOMMON COUNTY...BUT PER EMERGENCY
MANAGER REPORTS...WAVER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE POND
UPSTREAM OF THE DAM HAS BASICALLY EMPTIED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AT WHICH TIME MANY OF THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 151942
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND UNSEASONAL COLD CANADIAN
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE PLAINS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA...KEEPING MOST THE ACTION UP THERE FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE
FRONT TRAILING THROUGH THE LOWER...AND SHIFTING ACTIVE WEATHER TO
THE LOWER PENINSULA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER DAY FOR HUNTING
EGGS...AS ANOTHER SLOPPY SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE OFFING FOR EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

INTRIGUING LITTLE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...BUT
WITH NO MAJOR FORECAST ISSUES...SAVE FOR HOW COLD TEMPS WILL GET
TONIGHT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN SET ANY RECORDS. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS PLACES RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AS H8 TEMPS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE -15
TO -17C RANGE. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE LAKES
DID THEIR THING EARLY WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BAND UP SOME
STREAMERS...WHILE DIURNAL DISRUPTION IS TAKING ITS TOLL THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING MORE THINGS INTO A MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE
WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HELPS DIMINISH THE OVERALL COVERAGE. A
LOOK UPSTREAM INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND WISCONSIN SHOWS A MUCH MORE
ROBUST STRATOCU DECK WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...TIED TO A VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND QUITE STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND (OF
COURSE) SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

IT IS THIS FEATURE OF INTEREST INTO THE EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT
HINTS FOR A FEW DAYS ON WEAK INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ARCING FROM THE CENTRAL U.P. TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 00-05Z. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM
PROGS...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THIS AXIS OF STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING SOME LIFE AS
THEY TRACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. DON`T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TOO OUT OF CONTROL...BUT GIVEN SAID
REMNANT INSTABILITY...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE ENOUGH TO
(RE)WHITEN THE GROUND. IN THIS SETUP...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE TRICKY AS
THE WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY BE LIMITED...BUT HAVE TO BELIEVE GIVEN
THE ALREADY COLD START AND HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SLIDING OVERHEAD
THAT WE CAN MUSTER READINGS DOWN INTO THE TEENS...AND PROBABLY
SINGLE DIGITS IN SPOTS. THESE SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME
RECORD VALUES IN MANY SPOTS...BEFORE THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN
AFTER 09Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY -
THURSDAY OVER EASTERN U.P.  LOWER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD.  THIS HAS USHERED IN A CHILLY AIRMASS CHANGE
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WITH A RETURN TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  THE
PRIMARY UPSTREAM CHANGE IN THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH
WILL HELP REINVIGORATE THE EASTERN PACIFIC JET CAUSING THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE.

WITH THIS TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LONG TERM RIDGE-TROUGH LOCATIONS
CHANGE LITTLE...WHICH INDICATES THAT DESPITE THE IMPLIED WARM UP OF
A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINATED FLOW...THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH 10 DAYS
FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MIDDLE RANGE /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/:

COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN OVER
WASHINGTON/OREGON/IDAHO WILL RACE SOUTH AND EAST AND TEAM UP WITH
LEE-SIDE CYCLONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A COMPACT
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING...LLEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING UNDER DRY SOUTHEASTERLY LLEVEL FLOW.  THUS...EXPECT
A DRY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
TOP-DOWN SATURATION PROCESS TO COMPLETE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT FROM THE STRAITS NORTH WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF THIS
FROM M-32 NORTH.  AMAZINGLY...PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE IN QUESTION WITH
RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW
AS LLEVELS SATURATE.  ALWAYS TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN APRIL
DURING THE DAYTIME...SO SEE NO MORE THAN A COATING...PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY SURFACES THROUGH EVENING.  HIGHS STUCK NEAR FREEZING IN
EASTERN UPPER...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PERHAPS SOME
FILTERED SUN IN NORTHERN LOWER.

CONFIDENCE A LITTLE SHAKY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WEAKENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DAMPENS IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENT FLOW.  GULF MOISTURE IS LACKING...WITH PWATS MAKING A RUN
AT 0.5-0.6".  THESE VALUES...WHILE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AREN/T BAD
DURING A POTENTIAL SNOW-PRODUCING SCENARIO.  SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH AS A BAND OF H8-7 FGEN IN
THE REGION OF MODEST QVECTOR SUPPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD
FAVOR A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  PRIMARY
QUESTIONS ARE HOW RAPIDLY THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH AND...WITH A PRETTY
WEAK LLJ RESPONSE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW...JUST HOW INTENSE
THE BANDING WILL BE.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN NEAR-ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL /BEST ESTIMATE 2-4?/...WITH A VERY QUICK DROP OFF TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER.  LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S
SOUTH...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WASH OUT OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WANING AS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.  OUTSIDE OF
ANY RESIDUAL SNOW /EVEN MIXING WITH RAIN AT THIS POINT/ OVER EASTERN
UPPER EARLY...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHRAS OVER NORTHERN
LOWER AS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW
INSTABILITY.  T9 REACH +3 OVER NORTHERN LOWER SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO 50...WITH HIGHS STUCK AT OR BELOW 40 OVER EASTERN
UPPER WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT NEVER ARRIVES.

HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER SNEAKY POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CATCHES UP TO DEPARTING MOISTURE PLUME IN
THE PRESENCE OF A 100KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TO PROMOTE A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW GIVEN
STRONG ENOUGH RATES...WITH A FEW WET INCHES OF SNOW CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IF THIS BAND MATERIALIZES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.  LOWS LOOK TO FALL TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30.

ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING UNDER COLD ADVECTION.  COLD
ADVECTION TAKES T9 TO AROUND -4C BY AFTERNOON...INDICATING THAT
WHILE THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRYING...AND EVEN SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS
OF SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S OVER EASTERN UPPER/COAST OF NW LOWER WITH 40S OVER NE LOWER
LIKELY MELTING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED RANGE /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/:

ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE FAVORED THROUGH THE THIS PERIOD AS THE GGEM A
STARK OUTLIER AND NOT CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS FROM SUGGESTED
FROM HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS.

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE PROMISING ANOTHER BREAK WEATHER-WISE...BUT CONTINUATION OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT WEAKENS AS WE REACH SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS OF A RETURN OF THE GULF MOISTURE STREAM AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...WITH MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  SHOWER CHANCES
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD /PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER/
BUT WITH NO STRONG FORCING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  AIRMASS ALOFT
SLOWLY MODERATES...BUT WITH CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
DECENT CHANCES THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS MAY END UP COOLER STILL.

THERE IS MODEST AGREEMENT IN COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AGAIN TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD BY TUESDAY WHICH
PROMISES ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH /SORRY FOR THE BROKEN
RECORD/ CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP BENEATH SOME VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SMATTERING OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL REMAIN VFR BUT MAY DIP TO
MVFR BRIEFLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WITH A BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH PLN AND PERHAPS
TVC/APN. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY THICKENING CLOUDS IN THE 7-10KFT RANGE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFT EAST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

STILL QUITE A FEW ISSUES ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BASED ON
CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...THOUGH THEY AREA FALLING WITH TIME. WILL GIVE
THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING ONE MORE BOOST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND SEE WHERE THINGS TAKE US. PLENTY OF ACTION WITH AN ONGOING DAM
BREAK IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ROSCOMMON COUNTY...BUT PER EMERGENCY
MANAGER REPORTS...WAVER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE POND
UPSTREAM OF THE DAM HAS BASICALLY EMPTIED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AT WHICH TIME MANY OF THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE GONE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
HYDROLOGY...LAWRENCE








000
FXUS63 KAPX 151744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
144 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING SOME RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO THE
STATE...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.

HOWEVER...THIS BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WARM
FRONT WILL PRESS BACK INTO THE STATE FOR MIDWEEK. BUT THIS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL MORE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

QUICK HYDRO NOTE: FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ROSCOMMON COUNTY FOR THE FAILURE OF THE WRACO LODGE DAM.
SEVERAL DOWNSTREAM ROADS ALREADY CLOSED. PICS FROM THE SCENE SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF WATER BEHIND THE BREACHED DAM...SO NO DOUBT THERE
IS CONCERN ALONG OLD 27 AND US-127 FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

FORECAST GOING AS PLANNED WITH DIURNAL CU FLARING UP BENEATH VERY
CHILLY AIR ALOFT...COMPLETELY WITH SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS DOING
THE SAME. A THICKER BATCH OF STRATOCU IS NOTED UPSTREAM AND THAT
WILL LIKELY SNEAK EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING...TIED TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE AND VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...AND SUSPECT THERE MAY BE A PESKY PERIOD OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA. STILL DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS. IN THE MEANTIME...JUST PLAIN
COLD OUT THERE...WITH READINGS VERY SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE
20S - YUCK!.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

OK...SO WHAT MONTH IS THIS AGAIN? LOOKING LIKE MID WINTER OUT
THERE...WITH CLASSIC LAKE SUPERIOR-CONNECTED LAKE STREAMERS NOTED
THROUGH THE MORNING DOWN ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION.
THAT IS PRETTY AMAZING CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF ICE STILL ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (KIND OF RIDICULOUS REALLY)...BUT THOSE BANDS ARE
STARTING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL "HEATING"/MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOSS OF THAT LAKE CONNECTION...SUCH THAT THINGS ARE BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF FLURRIES/
WEAK BANDS GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH
THOSE ARE WANING AS WELL WITH LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING
EAST. IN BETWEEN...SOME NICE SUNSHINE SHOWING UP...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE U.P. WHERE SOME QUITE DRY AIR IS ARRIVING...AND SUSPECT
THIS TREND TOWARD SUNNIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR A LITTLE.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH COLD AIR OVERHEAD...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL
BUBBLE UP A GOOD DEAL OF CU FOR A TIME FOR MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABLY A SMATTERING OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LIFTED CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE DGZ. HAVE
TWEAKED TIMING AND PLACEMENT BASED ON THESE IDEAS...WITH CURRENT
GOING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S JUST FINE. THOSE READINGS
MAY WELL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO SET SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY AT KGLR...WHICH CURRENTLY SITS AT 28 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR A FLARE UP IN LAKE EFFECT ACROSS GTV BAY
SOUTHWARD IN THE NNW FLOW REGIMES...MAYBE A THIN DUSTING OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL EXPECTING DIURNAL
PROCESSES TO OVERPOWER THE LAKES...CREATING SOME LIGHT SNOWS OVER
LAND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALSO...THE NNW FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SNOW RETURNS
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH IS MAINLY FLURRIES...BUT
REGARDLESS...IT IS REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

LATEST DATA JUMPING MORE ON A SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING FAR
NW LOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE LAKES SHOULD STILL BE
ACTIVE. CONCERNED FOR SOME BETTER THAN EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT UNTIL
WINDS BACK AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS MODERATE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...COLD...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTER ALOFT WITH SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND MOVING INTO NRN
MICHIGAN WITH DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION. ONE FINAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX LIFTING NE AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
WEAK-MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AIR MASS IS DRYING FROM THE WEST WHILE AND
AXIS OF BRISK H8 WINDS RESIDES OVER GTV BAY RIGHT NOW. TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE PROCESSES...AND WE ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE THE
INITIAL WEAK RETURNS OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POINTING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. YES...THIS IS COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...AND
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO POUR INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SEEN
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM OVER BOTH COASTS. THE WESTERN RIDGE IS BEING
SQUASHED A LITTLE BY INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY
HELP TO KEEP THE PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM ALL THIS WINTER INTACT.
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING TOWARD NE MONTANA...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND JUST SOME LEFTOVER
4-6KFT MOISTURE (A BIT MORE JUST DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
MICHIGAN)...WHERE SOME HOLES WERE SEEN IN YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP TODAY IN THE COLD
AIR MASS.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS NW LOWER
(LIKELY NOT IN EASTERN UPPER DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THERE). THE
DRY AIR IS BATTLING THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE AREAS
THAT AREN`T STILL ICE COVERED...SO ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL. PLUS...DIURNAL PROCESSES OVER LAND SHOULD MORE SO OVERWHELM
THE LAKES BY MID/LATE MORNING. CAN SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER LAND...WITH THE FOCUS
OF BETTER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NW LOWER/STRAITS AND INTERIOR EASTERN
UPPER. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING IN FAR NW
LOWER...BEFORE ANY LIGHT SNOWS WILL FADE AWAY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR AWHILE...THEN SKIES INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...MADE WORSE BY GUSTY
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW. WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE WHILE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...AND
AHEAD OF INCOMING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO GET DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. RECORDS LOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THEN A BIT
MORE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE COMING DAYS (THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING)...FIRST IN THE FORM
OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. IT IS ACTUALLY LOOKING LIKE EASTERN UPPER COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
LATE DAY WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER (0.25-0.50 INCHES) SO THERE COULD END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW UP THAT WAY (HIGHEST NEAR PARADISE AND WHITEFISH
POINT). HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND
PERHAPS MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FRUSTRATING FORECAST FOR SURE AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH.
A FEW MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING IT
WHILE OTHERS CONTINUE TO STRING OUT THIS SYSTEM AND ITS WANING
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WILL HAVE TO SIDE WITH CONSENSUS
WHICH IS TO LINGER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY BUT THEN ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY BUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN (NOT TO
MENTION THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH COULD STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION).
BEST COURSE OF ACTION LOOKS TO BE TO KEEP IN CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND HOPE MODELS CAN RESOLVE
THESE FEATURES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WISH HAD HIGHER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE (WHICH ACTUALLY IS
NOT TOO UNHEARD OF DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR). ASSUMING THE
INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS
ARE NOW BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE FLOW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS DURING THAT
TIME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AGAIN SATURDAY THEN RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...OVERALL REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP BENEATH SOME VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SMATTERING OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL REMAIN VFR BUT MAY DIP TO
MVFR BRIEFLY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WITH A BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH PLN AND PERHAPS
TVC/APN. LOWER CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY THICKENING CLOUDS IN THE 7-10KFT RANGE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN
SHIFT EAST UP TO 10 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 WITH MANY
RIVERS AND STREAMS AT OR ABOVE RECORD WATER LEVELS. THE FLOOD
WARNING WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CONTINUED UNTIL THINGS CAN SUBSIDE. ALL
RIVER FORECAST CRESTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE BOARDMAN AT MAYFIELD...WHERE THE CURRENT LEVELS ARE RISING
FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND AT BANKFULL NOW. FORECASTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE HOWEVER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
HYDROLOGY...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 151406
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING SOME RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES TO THE
STATE...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.

HOWEVER...THIS BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WARM
FRONT WILL PRESS BACK INTO THE STATE FOR MIDWEEK. BUT THIS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BRING SEVERAL MORE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

OK...SO WHAT MONTH IS THIS AGAIN? LOOKING LIKE MID WINTER OUT
THERE...WITH CLASSIC LAKE SUPERIOR-CONNECTED LAKE STREAMERS NOTED
THROUGH THE MORNING DOWN ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION.
THAT IS PRETTY AMAZING CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF ICE STILL ON LAKE
SUPERIOR (KIND OF RIDICULOUS REALLY)...BUT THOSE BANDS ARE
STARTING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL "HEATING"/MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOSS OF THAT LAKE CONNECTION...SUCH THAT THINGS ARE BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...LOTS OF FLURRIES/
WEAK BANDS GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH
THOSE ARE WANING AS WELL WITH LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING
EAST. IN BETWEEN...SOME NICE SUNSHINE SHOWING UP...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE U.P. WHERE SOME QUITE DRY AIR IS ARRIVING...AND SUSPECT
THIS TREND TOWARD SUNNIER CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL FOR A LITTLE.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH COLD AIR OVERHEAD...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL
BUBBLE UP A GOOD DEAL OF CU FOR A TIME FOR MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABLY A SMATTERING OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LIFTED CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE DGZ. HAVE
TWEAKED TIMING AND PLACEMENT BASED ON THESE IDEAS...WITH CURRENT
GOING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S JUST FINE. THOSE READINGS
MAY WELL BE GOOD ENOUGH TO SET SOME RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS...
PARTICULARLY AT KGLR...WHICH CURRENTLY SITS AT 28 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR A FLARE UP IN LAKE EFFECT ACROSS GTV BAY
SOUTHWARD IN THE NNW FLOW REGIMES...MAYBE A THIN DUSTING OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL EXPECTING DIURNAL
PROCESSES TO OVERPOWER THE LAKES...CREATING SOME LIGHT SNOWS OVER
LAND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALSO...THE NNW FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SNOW RETURNS
AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH IS MAINLY FLURRIES...BUT
REGARDLESS...IT IS REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

LATEST DATA JUMPING MORE ON A SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING FAR
NW LOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE LAKES SHOULD STILL BE
ACTIVE. CONCERNED FOR SOME BETTER THAN EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT UNTIL
WINDS BACK AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS MODERATE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...COLD...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTER ALOFT WITH SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND MOVING INTO NRN
MICHIGAN WITH DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION. ONE FINAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX LIFTING NE AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
WEAK-MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AIR MASS IS DRYING FROM THE WEST WHILE AND
AXIS OF BRISK H8 WINDS RESIDES OVER GTV BAY RIGHT NOW. TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE PROCESSES...AND WE ARE JUST STARTING TO SEE THE
INITIAL WEAK RETURNS OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW POINTING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. YES...THIS IS COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...AND
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO POUR INTO THE REGION. RIDGING IS SEEN
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM OVER BOTH COASTS. THE WESTERN RIDGE IS BEING
SQUASHED A LITTLE BY INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY
HELP TO KEEP THE PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM ALL THIS WINTER INTACT.
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING TOWARD NE MONTANA...WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN TODAY WITH CONTINUED DRYING AND JUST SOME LEFTOVER
4-6KFT MOISTURE (A BIT MORE JUST DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
MICHIGAN)...WHERE SOME HOLES WERE SEEN IN YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP TODAY IN THE COLD
AIR MASS.

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:

SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS NW LOWER
(LIKELY NOT IN EASTERN UPPER DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THERE). THE
DRY AIR IS BATTLING THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE AREAS
THAT AREN`T STILL ICE COVERED...SO ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL. PLUS...DIURNAL PROCESSES OVER LAND SHOULD MORE SO OVERWHELM
THE LAKES BY MID/LATE MORNING. CAN SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER LAND...WITH THE FOCUS
OF BETTER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NW LOWER/STRAITS AND INTERIOR EASTERN
UPPER. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING IN FAR NW
LOWER...BEFORE ANY LIGHT SNOWS WILL FADE AWAY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR AWHILE...THEN SKIES INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...MADE WORSE BY GUSTY
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NW. WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY FOR AT
LEAST A LITTLE WHILE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...AND
AHEAD OF INCOMING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO GET DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. RECORDS LOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THEN A BIT
MORE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE COMING DAYS (THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING)...FIRST IN THE FORM
OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. IT IS ACTUALLY LOOKING LIKE EASTERN UPPER COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
LATE DAY WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES AS AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER (0.25-0.50 INCHES) SO THERE COULD END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW UP THAT WAY (HIGHEST NEAR PARADISE AND WHITEFISH
POINT). HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND
PERHAPS MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FRUSTRATING FORECAST FOR SURE AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH.
A FEW MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING IT
WHILE OTHERS CONTINUE TO STRING OUT THIS SYSTEM AND ITS WANING
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WILL HAVE TO SIDE WITH CONSENSUS
WHICH IS TO LINGER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY BUT THEN ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY BUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN (NOT TO
MENTION THAT THE INVERTED TROUGH COULD STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION).
BEST COURSE OF ACTION LOOKS TO BE TO KEEP IN CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND HOPE MODELS CAN RESOLVE
THESE FEATURES IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WISH HAD HIGHER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE (WHICH ACTUALLY IS
NOT TOO UNHEARD OF DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR). ASSUMING THE
INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
FREE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS
ARE NOW BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE FLOW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN POPS DURING THAT
TIME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AGAIN SATURDAY THEN RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...OVERALL REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...A PERIOD OF MVFR AND RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS THIS MORNING...

LAKE EFFECT INDEED WAS ABLE TO GET GOING. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WON OUT OVER THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.
LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WERE COMMON ACROSS
TVC/MBL. DO BELIEVE THE LIGHT SNOWS/FLURRIES WILL BECOME MORE OVER
THE LAND BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...SO MAYBE MBL CLOSEST TO THE
WATER SEEING AN END TO SNOWS. DO NOT THINK RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE THERE IS A BIT LOW. BEST SNOWS/HIGHEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT PLN
WITH A SHOT OF BETTER MOISTURE WILE LAKES SHOULD STILL BE
ACTIVATED.

A QUIET PERIOD LATE EVENING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD...BUT MID CLOUD WILL BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT
WEAKEN TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 WITH MANY
RIVERS AND STREAMS AT OR ABOVE RECORD WATER LEVELS. THE FLOOD
WARNING WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CONTINUED UNTIL THINGS CAN SUBSIDE. ALL
RIVER FORECAST CRESTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE BOARDMAN AT MAYFIELD...WHERE THE CURRENT LEVELS ARE RISING
FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND AT BANKFULL NOW. FORECASTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE HOWEVER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
HYDROLOGY...SMD







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