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000
FXUS63 KAPX 300835
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300835
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING MAJOR FORESEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAYBE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACT LOOKS MINOR GIVEN ALREADY SNOW COVERED/SLUSHY ROADS
THAT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FAMILIAR-LOOKING PATTERN WITH THE PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING...SOME DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA AND SOME
SKIRTING JUST NORTH. SATURDAY`S ITERATION WILL FEATURE A MODEST WAVE
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE UPPER FORCING WITH
SAID WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US HINGING OUR BETS ON
WHATEVER SORT OF LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL FORCING WE CAN MUSTER FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. BRIEF BUT NOTABLE INTRUSION OF "WARMER" AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO
WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING ABOVE -10C AT LEAST RAISING AN
EYEBROW TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS TO ME JUST LOOKS A LITTLE
TOO COOL TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EVEN IF
IT WERE TO OCCUR (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF M-32)...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD OCCUR (DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). FARTHER NORTH...WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE UP TO 800MB WITH CLOUD TEMPS DOWN AS LOW AS -15C SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF ROUND OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATION
LOOKS MINOR BUT IT WILL LIKELY SNOW...THUS HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN.

WE SORT OF SIT IN NO MAN`S LAND SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR JUST
STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...ALL WHILE WE AWAIT UPSTREAM
TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH PHASING CAN GET TAKE PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SATURATION SHRINKING BELOW 850MB BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONLY SLOWLY KICKING INTO GEAR. THAT THREAT SHOULD BE GONE
NO LATER THAN 03-06Z AS SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE
AREA AS EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO KICKS OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY.

NOW...SPEAKING OF POTENTIAL PHASING TO OUR SOUTH...GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION CONTINUE TO FAVOR LITTLE IMPACT THIS
FAR NORTH HEADING INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL ACT TO
BLOCK ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE STRONGER WAVE OVER THE MID MISS
VALLEY. NOT HELPING MATTERS WILL ALSO BE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING (SURFACE PRESSURES NEARING 1044MB TO OUR
WEST)...ALSO ACTING AS A FORMIDABLE BLOCK TO ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO SKIRT THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. GIVEN THAT SCENARIO...COULD WELL END UP SEEING A
GOOD DEAL OF INLAND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS NORTH FLOW FAVORS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES BUT POTENTIALLY SOME QUITE COLD CONDITIONS INLAND. SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR (H8 TEMPS IN THE -19C TO -23C RANGE) AND
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ARGUES FOR ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WHERE LAKE EFFECT DOES EXIST...AS FLAKE SIZE WILL BE QUITE SMALL
WITH THE DGZ BASICALLY AT GROUND LEVEL. SOME POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
SPOTS TO DIP BELOW -10F SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDED WINDS AND CLOUDS
COOPERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

WE NOW RETURN YOU TO NORMAL WINTER WEATHER (THOUGH ARGUABLY THERE IS
NO SUCH THING AS "NORMAL WEATHER" IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN). BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK...REINFORCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
EMANATING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRAG SEVERAL COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OF COURSE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE... AS IT OFTEN IS IN SUCH SETUPS...BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD PLACE ONE WAVE ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE DOES AT LEAST PEAK
SOME INTEREST GIVEN A PERSISTENT AND DECENT FGEN SIGNAL NOTED FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OUTSIDE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...
SIMPLE STEP-DOWN TOWARD MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MANDATES
DAILY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 300600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 300600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 300325
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MULTI-BAND N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING...AND ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING.
BANDS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN FURTHER INLAND THANKS TO N/NW WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 TO 35 KTS. SNOWFALL INTENSITY HAS NOT BEEN EXCESSIVELY
HEAVY...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE CERTAINLY CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES WITHIN THE HEAVIER
BANDS. WILL KEEP ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE MAINLY TO THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. STILL EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED PLACES IN FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN SEEING UP TO 4 INCHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 292318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 292318
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

DEVELOPING N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
TVC AND MBL THRU FRIDAY...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL BE MVFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/APN) ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 KTS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 292114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 292114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINDY WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND TURNING COLDER TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WESTERN
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND WEST OF I-75 (AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF M-37) IN NORTHERN LOWER...NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED BUT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES
NORTHWEST LOWER. COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER (TEENS BELOW ZERO BY MORNING).

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  ONE WAVE WAS ROLLING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI...AND A
THIRD DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO LAKE HURON...SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/CENTRAL WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IOWA.  SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA..WITH WEAK RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AS A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES (DECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRY MIX OUT THE
WINDOW...HAS NICELY ICED UP OUR TOWER WEBCAM).  GUSTY WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER TO THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE
COUNTIES.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL SWING ACROSS MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL DRAG A
DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  DECENTLY
STRONG NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS...LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW...WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT: EASTERN UPPER...NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY SETS
UP THIS EVENING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WINDS MAY
BECOME ALMOST DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.  THIS IMPACTS AREAS WEST OF
I-75 FOR LAKE BANDS TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS ONLY FAR WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT SETS UP BETWEEN WARMER LAND AND ARCTIC AIR
"HORSESHOEING" AROUND THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW EAST OF I-75 THIS EVENING...EXPECTED THIS TO TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT.  INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 900MB AT MOST DESPITE
DEEP LAYER COOLING...THOUGH CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TIME FOR DENDRITE GROWTH.  BUT OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN TRANSIENT NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT INTENSITY EXPECTED.

NORTHERN LOWER...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST LOWER AROUND THE
THUNDER BAY BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND HARRISVILLE.  FOR NORTHWEST
LOWER THERMODYNAMICS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
IN THE 850-875MB RANGE AND A DEEPER CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FAVORABLE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY BETTER SNOW RATIOS).
THINK AREAS ALONG-WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR MAY PICK UP 2 TO LOCALLY
4 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE SNOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS...ALREADY GUSTING TOWARD 30MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/
NORTHWEST LOWER...AND EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND EXPAND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH INLAND AND 40+MPH ALONG
THE NORTHWEST LOWER SHORELINE AND ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY.  SO
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS GIVEN RECENT SNOWFALL TODAY
PLUS IN AREAS THAT WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED M-37 AND WEST CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
LOWER).  AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATTER AREA GIVEN CURRENT/EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING.  SO PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE/GRAND TRAVERSE/WEXFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (MAY BE ABLE TO SHUTTER THIS EARLY SINCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT).

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
LOWER...WITH WIND CHILLS BY MORNING ALSO FALLING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY THE TIME ARRIVES TO GET THE KIDS OFF TO SCHOOL.  SO
WILL MAKE SURE TO EMPHASIZE THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON RENDITION
OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONGIHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291800
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONGIHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. SOME
FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 291635
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 291635
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED 1006MB LOW ALONG THE MICHIGAN/
INDIANA BORDER...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH UP THE LONG
AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL IOWA RESPECTIVELY.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
INDIANA AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HELPING DRIVE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AROUND 700MB HELPING FOCUS AN
EARLIER SNOW BURST OVER NORTHERN LOWER (GETTING REPORTS OF 4-6+
INCHES LOCALLY).  A SECOND NARROW BAND OF SNOW LIES RIGHT ALONG/
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.  SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL ZONE.

BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 21Z.  STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GIN UP SOME LAKE CONVECTION
IN NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH PRIOR TO THAT MOIST LOW
LAYERS AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MARGINAL
CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FOR ICE NUCLEATION.  LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WILL LET ADVISORY DROP OFF WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 291123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 291123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR BAND OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING IN A BAND OF
FGEN FROM LEELANAU COUNTY THROUGH TVC...GAYLORD AND OVER TOWARD
ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...TVC AND APN WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING...

SFC LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STRONGER LIFT AND
HEAVIER SNOWS HAS DEVELOPED FROM TVC TO APN. AM EXPECTING HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 15-16Z AND
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. MOST ALL FORCING WILL BE GONE BY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT REMNANT SNOWS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ACROSS APN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS
BEING VARIABLE OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GUST TO 25-35 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NEAR MBL) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE A
SLIGHT DROP OFF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290842
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290842
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING TOO MAJOR FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF JANUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS.

A FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR SURE THIS WINTER...FEATURING BRIEF INTRUSIONS
OF DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RECOVERY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. INDEED THAT
LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A
QUICK ROUND OF ROBUST UPPER TROUGHING INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY RISING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLATED TO ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...COMPLETE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO
USHER IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EARLY WORK
WEEK PERIOD. SHEW...THAT WAS A MOUTH-FULL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...NOTHING OVERLY DRAMATIC BY
VERY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS...WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS ON FRIDAY
MORE THAN PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT WITH THE
DEPTH MOISTURE SEVERELY LACKING. THAT WON`T MATTER ALL THAT MUCH AS
THE SUB-850MB AIRMASS IS IN THE "SWEET SPOT" FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH IN
THE -15C TO -19C RANGE AND LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA NICELY BISECTS THAT
REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY WON`T EXACTLY HELP THE CAUSE...WITH INITIAL 340-ISH DEGREE
FLOW BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED AFTER 18-21Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO BACK WHILE ALSO DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS
SUCH...WHILE IT WILL CERTAINLY SNOW FOR THE FAVORED FLOW REGIMES...
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL IN CHECK...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH (WORST
CASE SCENARIO: 2 INCHES) OF FLUFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE
THE RISK FOR SOME AREAS OF DRIFTING SNOW...MAINLY OPEN AREAS OF
COURSE. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD BASICALLY GO NOWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY...PROBABLY STUCK JUST ABOVE ZERO EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES BUT RANGING THROUGH THE MID TEENS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
NORTH FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO "DRAIN" ARCTIC AIR FROM ONTARIO AS
EFFECTIVELY.

BACKING FLOW AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD HELP SPREAD CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES BACK INLAND...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE AND IS REALLY JUST A GLORIFIED COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
STILL...INTERACTION OF SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MANY AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PONDERED THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL...AS WE SEE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUT AN
OVERALL "WARMER" CLOUD DECK JUST BARELY SUPPORTIVE OF ICE.
HOWEVER...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONE APPEARS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY ICE-PRODUCING CLOUDS...SO MAYBE WE END UP WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN (WAIT FOR IT - EVERYONE`S FAVORITE WORD)
"SNIZZLE" INTO EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...NOT MUCH INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN FOLDS IN FROM ONTARIO...BUT WILL BE
WATCHING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM UNFOLDING JUST UPSTREAM (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND IT ALL HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION WE CAN GET
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND ATTEMPTING TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MEANDERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
OFF A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...WITH THE 29/00Z NAM AND
28/12Z GGEM CERTAINLY THE MOST AMPED SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THAT INTERACTION...THOUGH EVEN THESE
MODELS HAVE A TIMES HINTED AT A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AS TO THE OUTCOME...BUT BASED ON
HISTORY THIS WINTER AND THE MORE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM TO
DATE...MY GUT FEELING IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
WORKING OUT...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY SYNOPTIC
SNOW THIS FAR NORTH. THIS IDEA IS ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...WHICH WILL
LIKELY ACT TO DRIVE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
THUS FURTHER LIMITING OUR SNOW RISK. WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY THIS
BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS CAN CHANGE...AND
OFTEN HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY THIS SEASON.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS IN THE WORKS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS TO DIP BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 290621
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOME LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 290621
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOME LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290242 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WARM ADVECTION WING OF -SN PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THIS PRODUCED SOME SNOW IN WESTERN MACK AND PROBABLY
FAR WESTERN CHIP (NEWBERRY WAS BELOW 3SM IN -SN FOR NOT QUITE AN
HOUR). BUT THE BETTER EMBEDDED BAND WITHIN THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS IN FAR EASTERN UPPER MI. SO THIS WING HAS DETERIORATED TO
JUST A JUST OF -SN...FLURRIES...OR EVEN JUST VIRGA. FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL WAIT
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WHEN FGEN INCREASES JUST NE OF A
SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS UPTICK IN FGEN IS
SUDDEN...AND THOUGH THIS WILL BE A SHORT EVENT (MAINLY THU
MORNING)...PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE LOCALLY ON THE HEALTHY SIDE.
WILL BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING IN
RESPONSE...SOMETHING MORE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE IN N CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

-SN AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THU MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING SOUTHERN
LOWER MI THU MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND -SN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD -SN
DEPARTS BY AFTERNOON...BUT -SHSN/BLSN WILL BE SEEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

SE BREEZE TONIGHT...VEERING NW THU MORNING...AND BECOMING RATHER
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290202
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WARM ADVECTION WING OF -SN PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THIS PRODUCED SOME SNOW IN WESTERN MACK AND PROBABLY
FAR WESTERN CHIP (NEWBERRY WAS BELOW 3SM IN -SN FOR NOT QUITE AN
HOUR). BUT THE BETTER EMBEDDED BAND WITHIN THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS IN FAR EASTERN UPPER MI. SO THIS WING HAS DETERIORATED TO
JUST A JUST OF -SN...FLURRIES...OR EVEN JUST VIRGA. FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL WAIT
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WHEN FGEN INCREASES JUST NE OF A
SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS UPTICK IN FGEN IS
SUDDEN...AND THOUGH THIS WILL BE A SHORT EVENT (MAINLY WED
MORNING)...PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE LOCALLY ON THE HEALTHY SIDE.
WILL BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING IN
RESPONSE...SOMETHING MORE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE IN N CENTRAL AND
NE LOWER MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

-SN AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THU MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING SOUTHERN
LOWER MI THU MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND -SN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD -SN
DEPARTS BY AFTERNOON...BUT -SHSN/BLSN WILL BE SEEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

SE BREEZE TONIGHT...VEERING NW THU MORNING...AND BECOMING RATHER
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 290202
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WARM ADVECTION WING OF -SN PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THIS PRODUCED SOME SNOW IN WESTERN MACK AND PROBABLY
FAR WESTERN CHIP (NEWBERRY WAS BELOW 3SM IN -SN FOR NOT QUITE AN
HOUR). BUT THE BETTER EMBEDDED BAND WITHIN THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS IN FAR EASTERN UPPER MI. SO THIS WING HAS DETERIORATED TO
JUST A JUST OF -SN...FLURRIES...OR EVEN JUST VIRGA. FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL WAIT
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WHEN FGEN INCREASES JUST NE OF A
SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THIS UPTICK IN FGEN IS
SUDDEN...AND THOUGH THIS WILL BE A SHORT EVENT (MAINLY WED
MORNING)...PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE LOCALLY ON THE HEALTHY SIDE.
WILL BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING IN
RESPONSE...SOMETHING MORE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE IN N CENTRAL AND
NE LOWER MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

-SN AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THU MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING SOUTHERN
LOWER MI THU MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND -SN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD -SN
DEPARTS BY AFTERNOON...BUT -SHSN/BLSN WILL BE SEEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

SE BREEZE TONIGHT...VEERING NW THU MORNING...AND BECOMING RATHER
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 282340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

-SN AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THU MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING SOUTHERN
LOWER MI THU MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND -SN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD -SN
DEPARTS BY AFTERNOON...BUT -SHSN/BLSN WILL BE SEEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

SE BREEZE TONIGHT...VEERING NW THU MORNING...AND BECOMING RATHER
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 282340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

-SN AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THU MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING SOUTHERN
LOWER MI THU MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND -SN WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD -SN
DEPARTS BY AFTERNOON...BUT -SHSN/BLSN WILL BE SEEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.

SE BREEZE TONIGHT...VEERING NW THU MORNING...AND BECOMING RATHER
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 282128
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SLOWLY INCREASING OVERCAST AND VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SPREADING A ROUND OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN LIGHT SNOW AND
MIST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INITIAL STRONG SOUTH
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIND SHEAR...WHICH
ESSENTIALLY ENDS AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. SOUTH WINDS VEER RAPIDLY
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 282128
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING.
CHANGES BEGINNING WELL OVERHEAD...AS EVIDENT BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IN INITIAL PHASE OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION WELL AHEAD OF DUAL
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING DIVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ANOTHER PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. AS
MENTIONED...SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...PREVENTING
MUCH...IF ANY...OF THIS PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING OF SNOW AND JUST HOW
MUCH WILL FALL.

DETAILS: TOP-DOWN WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
UPSTREAM WAVES APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE PERSISTENT
ADVECTION...ATTENDANT MOISTURE PLUME LIMITED AT BEST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRE-SYSTEM GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AND
PRIMARY FOCUS OF SYSTEM ATTENDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH. CONUS RADAR IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER STRONG SOUTHWEST H8 LOW LEVEL JET (UPWARDS OF 50+ KNOTS)
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR
REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES "SPIKING" TO AOA 0.5 INCHES BY MORNING.
GOTTA THINK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF SAID
LOW LEVEL JET...ALL TUCKED UNDER IMPROVING MID LEVEL SUPPORT VIA
APPROACHING WAVES... SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE THE SATURATION
PROCESS...FORCING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AS MAX OMEGA FOCUSES IN A
RATHER WARM THERMAL REGIME (MINUS SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS). MODEL
SOUNDINGS EVEN SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ELEVATED MELTING
LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. PRODUCTION OF PRECIP SHOULD ELIMINATE
SUCH VERY QUICKLY...SUPPORTING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIP.
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE BRIDGE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH FOR NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SLOWLY INCREASING OVERCAST AND VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SPREADING A ROUND OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN LIGHT SNOW AND
MIST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INITIAL STRONG SOUTH
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIND SHEAR...WHICH
ESSENTIALLY ENDS AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. SOUTH WINDS VEER RAPIDLY
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1245 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WELL AHEAD OF DUAL SHORTWAVES GETTING SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...AS EVIDENT BY LOCAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE CENTERED BELOW H6 (PWAT
VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES). INITIAL WAA WILL LARGELY BE USED TO
SLOWLY SATURATE THIS DRY LAYER. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
AS DESPITE UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...LITTLE EVIDENCE ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
SLOWED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SLOWLY INCREASING OVERCAST AND VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SPREADING A ROUND OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN LIGHT SNOW AND
MIST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INITIAL STRONG SOUTH
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIND SHEAR...WHICH
ESSENTIALLY ENDS AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. SOUTH WINDS VEER RAPIDLY
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1245 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WELL AHEAD OF DUAL SHORTWAVES GETTING SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...AS EVIDENT BY LOCAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE CENTERED BELOW H6 (PWAT
VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES). INITIAL WAA WILL LARGELY BE USED TO
SLOWLY SATURATE THIS DRY LAYER. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
AS DESPITE UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...LITTLE EVIDENCE ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
SLOWED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SLOWLY INCREASING OVERCAST AND VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SPREADING A ROUND OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN LIGHT SNOW AND
MIST FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INITIAL STRONG SOUTH
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL BRING A ROUND OF WIND SHEAR...WHICH
ESSENTIALLY ENDS AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. SOUTH WINDS VEER RAPIDLY
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281541
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WELL AHEAD OF DUAL SHORTWAVES GETTING SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...AS EVIDENT BY LOCAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE CENTERED BELOW H6 (PWAT
VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES). INITIAL WAA WILL LARGELY BE USED TO
SLOWLY SATURATE THIS DRY LAYER. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
AS DESPITE UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...LITTLE EVIDENCE ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
SLOWED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOME SNOW AND MVFR ARRIVING LATE...

PRETTY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS AT MBL THIS
MORNING...ONLY SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH
THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING STRONG
ENOUGH LATE IN THE TAF TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER AND
THE INTRODUCTION TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT
OF APN UNTIL THURSDAY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH....AND INCREASING ENOUGH JUST ABOVE
THE SFC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
SLACK GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER
NEARS...BASICALLY SHOVING THE WIND SHEAR EAST OF NW LOWER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281541
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WELL AHEAD OF DUAL SHORTWAVES GETTING SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...AS EVIDENT BY LOCAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE CENTERED BELOW H6 (PWAT
VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES). INITIAL WAA WILL LARGELY BE USED TO
SLOWLY SATURATE THIS DRY LAYER. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
AS DESPITE UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...LITTLE EVIDENCE ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
SLOWED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOME SNOW AND MVFR ARRIVING LATE...

PRETTY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS AT MBL THIS
MORNING...ONLY SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH
THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING STRONG
ENOUGH LATE IN THE TAF TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER AND
THE INTRODUCTION TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT
OF APN UNTIL THURSDAY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH....AND INCREASING ENOUGH JUST ABOVE
THE SFC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
SLACK GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER
NEARS...BASICALLY SHOVING THE WIND SHEAR EAST OF NW LOWER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281541
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WELL AHEAD OF DUAL SHORTWAVES GETTING SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...AS EVIDENT BY LOCAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE CENTERED BELOW H6 (PWAT
VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES). INITIAL WAA WILL LARGELY BE USED TO
SLOWLY SATURATE THIS DRY LAYER. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
AS DESPITE UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...LITTLE EVIDENCE ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
SLOWED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOME SNOW AND MVFR ARRIVING LATE...

PRETTY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS AT MBL THIS
MORNING...ONLY SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH
THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING STRONG
ENOUGH LATE IN THE TAF TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER AND
THE INTRODUCTION TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT
OF APN UNTIL THURSDAY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH....AND INCREASING ENOUGH JUST ABOVE
THE SFC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
SLACK GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER
NEARS...BASICALLY SHOVING THE WIND SHEAR EAST OF NW LOWER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281541
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1041 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION
WELL AHEAD OF DUAL SHORTWAVES GETTING SET TO EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...AS EVIDENT BY LOCAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER DRY WEDGE CENTERED BELOW H6 (PWAT
VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES). INITIAL WAA WILL LARGELY BE USED TO
SLOWLY SATURATE THIS DRY LAYER. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
AS DESPITE UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS...LITTLE EVIDENCE ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
SLOWED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOME SNOW AND MVFR ARRIVING LATE...

PRETTY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS AT MBL THIS
MORNING...ONLY SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH
THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING STRONG
ENOUGH LATE IN THE TAF TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER AND
THE INTRODUCTION TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT
OF APN UNTIL THURSDAY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH....AND INCREASING ENOUGH JUST ABOVE
THE SFC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
SLACK GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER
NEARS...BASICALLY SHOVING THE WIND SHEAR EAST OF NW LOWER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
601 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOME SNOW AND MVFR ARRIVING LATE...

PRETTY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS AT MBL THIS
MORNING...ONLY SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH
THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING STRONG
ENOUGH LATE IN THE TAF TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER AND
THE INTRODUCTION TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT
OF APN UNTIL THURSDAY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH....AND INCREASING ENOUGH JUST ABOVE
THE SFC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
SLACK GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER
NEARS...BASICALLY SHOVING THE WIND SHEAR EAST OF NW LOWER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
601 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOME SNOW AND MVFR ARRIVING LATE...

PRETTY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS AT MBL THIS
MORNING...ONLY SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH
THE DAY AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING STRONG
ENOUGH LATE IN THE TAF TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW LOWER AND
THE INTRODUCTION TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT
OF APN UNTIL THURSDAY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH....AND INCREASING ENOUGH JUST ABOVE
THE SFC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
SLACK GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE CLIPPER
NEARS...BASICALLY SHOVING THE WIND SHEAR EAST OF NW LOWER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280716
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
216 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
TAF CYCLE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 06Z FOR MBL-TVC-PLN.  CURRENT
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE TO GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH FROM MBL-TVC-PLN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE THICKEST CLOUDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOWER CIG.

WINDS: CALM WINDS NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS FOR
THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LLWS:  LLEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
REACHING 30-35KTS IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LAYER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL INTRODUCE LLWS MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR THIS
EXPECTATION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280716
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
216 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
TAF CYCLE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 06Z FOR MBL-TVC-PLN.  CURRENT
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE TO GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH FROM MBL-TVC-PLN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE THICKEST CLOUDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOWER CIG.

WINDS: CALM WINDS NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS FOR
THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LLWS:  LLEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
REACHING 30-35KTS IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LAYER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL INTRODUCE LLWS MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR THIS
EXPECTATION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280716 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
216 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
TAF CYCLE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 06Z FOR MBL-TVC-PLN.  CURRENT
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE TO GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH FROM MBL-TVC-PLN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE THICKEST CLOUDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOWER CIG.

WINDS: CALM WINDS NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS FOR
THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LLWS:  LLEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
REACHING 30-35KTS IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LAYER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL INTRODUCE LLWS MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR THIS
EXPECTATION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280716 CCA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
216 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA COAT OF NW
LOWER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

REGIONAL PATTERN: A TREND TO SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE
WORKS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK BEGINS TO UNRAVEL
AS NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS IT/S WAY NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE IS MAKING IT/S WAY AROUND THE CREST OF
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND BREAK THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OF LATE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED FROM THE WEST AS
OF THIS WRITING...BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND COLD NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS...SLIGHTLY WARMER AT THE COAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH AN INCREASE IN STRATOCU LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NORTHWEST LOWER.
GUIDANCE STILL A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT AND WILL
KEEP SKIES NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALLOWING STRENGTHENING
WARM ADVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY THIS MORNING /PWATS AROUND
0.15/ WITH ANY LLEVEL MOISTENING RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS /ALREADY REACHING OUR
AREA AS OF THIS WRITING PER EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY/ THAT WILL
SLOWLY THICKEN/LOWER AS THE DAY.  THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
LARGER SCALE TREND: FIRST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
WHERE LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO COAX A LAKE
RESPONSE UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK
THAT DEEP...AND IS LOCATED WELL BELOW THE -10C HEIGHT...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD RESULT.  WE
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW HIGHLIGHTS WESTERN CHIP/MACK TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF LAKE-
INDUCED CLOUDINESS.  ALONG WITH THE LLEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
UPPER WILL BE THE MOST TOP DOWN MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN POTENTIALLY SPAWNING A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS VICINITY TOWARDS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SOME UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH
T9S REACHING -7C.  WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A REGIME NOT FAVORING
MUCH MIXING...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW FULLY MIXED /TO T9/ VALUES...BUT
SHOULD SEE MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MAKE A RUN AT 30 WITH UPPER 20S
OVER EASTERN UPPER.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY:  FAST MOVING PAIR OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP FORCE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION NEAR CHICAGO BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF A DECENT PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP /PWATS INCREASE TO 0.5"
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MAKE A RUN AT 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER/ THERE ISN/T MUCH POSITIVE TO SAY ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM.  BEST QG/JET FORCING LAGS THE LLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
WHICH MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH AROUND THURSDAY DAYBREAK.  PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A TRANSITORY BAND OF
FGEN THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY BROAD AREA OF MOIST...LLEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
SURFACE LOW /REALLY MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH/ PASSES OVERHEAD.
ENVISION A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING OVER /DEVELOPING OVER/ THE
NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FILLING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A 6-9 HOUR OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
GREATEST OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE DEEP SATURATION OCCURS FIRST.
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL GIVEN THIS SETUP...WITH PERHAPS
0.25" OVER EASTERN UPPER...DROPPING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WE/RE IN A PRETTY MILD AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT...WITH 850 MB 0C LINE MAKING A RUN AT MBL-CAD THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH OF THE REGION.  COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX
IN THESE SPOTS AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN SNOW FOR ALL SPOTS.  AS FOR SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...THEY WILL BE RATHER POOR /WET/ AND LIKELY CLOSE TO
10:1...GREATEST OVER EASTERN UPPER.  THIS ALL SPELLS A RATHER LACK-
LUSTER SNOW EVENT...WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE GTV BAY
REGION...INCREASING TO 1-3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND 2-4 OVER EASTERN UPPER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
EVENT...STILL EXPECT THAT WE/LL BE DEALING WITH A SLICK MORNING
COMMUTE WITH SLOWDOWNS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS SNOW IN
THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF CAA DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  AMPLE LLEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESIDUAL QG FORCING /AS IT
LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHSN BEHIND
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SHIELD...WITH THESE SHSN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS AS LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS AND T8S FALL BELOW -10C. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND
ALONG THE COAST OF NW LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD COLD
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST ORIENTED ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET AND H9 WINDS OF 40-45KTS TO BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
/ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THIS/...
WHICH...DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF REMAINING SHSN ACTIVITY COULD
TAKE THE FORM OF A WIND OR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. WILL ADD MENTION
OF WIND TO MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WINDS 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30MPH INLAND.

ONE LAST SOMEWHAT MILD DAY /OR AT LEAST MORNING/ BEFORE ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS SHOULD MAKE A RUN AT
FREEZING OVER THE COAST OF NW LOWER...WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
WANTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE
WEST COAST. NRN MICHIGAN TO REMAIN LOCKED IN A GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY
CONTINUING TO THROW MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC ORIGIN AND MAINLY WEAK FORCING
NOT LEADING TO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE CAN
HOLD OUT HOPE FOR A SRN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ABLE TO LIFT
ENOUGH NORTH FOR A LITTLE SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW
HOWEVER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN INTO THE -18C TO -20C RANGE. A
PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHT OF 4500 FEET OR SO...AND A SOMEWHAT DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DOES
NOT LEND TO ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. PLUS...PRESSURE GRADIENT
REALLY LOOSENING UP OVERNIGHT WITH THE FAST ARRIVAL OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY GOOD THING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE NEAR
STEADY NNW FLOW AND MUCH OF THE LIFT FOCUSING IN ON MORE FAVORABLE
H8 TEMPS/DGZ. NNW FLOW REGIMES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP AN INCH...WITH
2 POSSIBLE IF THAT LIFT IN THE DGZ/FLUFF CAN PAN OUT.

WINDS WILL START BACKING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE LES PARAMETERS CRASH FOR LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES FANNING OUT ACROSS NW LOWER. WINDS BECOME MORE SW FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE WINDS BACK MORE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT
WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING...BUT COULD SEE FLURRIES WORKING UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER/STRAITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LESS
THAN STELLAR WAVE SET FOR SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN CONTINUING/REESTABLISHING
COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE EFFECTS ON THE SRN JET STREAM. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A CALIFORNIA TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHILE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE. QUESTION IS...DOES THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY PUSH THIS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US? THAT
IS SEEMINGLY THE BETTER CALL AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS LOW CHANCE
THAT SOME SYSTEM SNOW CAN CREEP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
TAF CYCLE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 06Z FOR MBL-TVC-PLN.  CURRENT
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE TO GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH FROM MBL-TVC-PLN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE THICKEST CLOUDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOWER CIG.

WINDS: CALM WINDS NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS FOR
THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LLWS:  LLEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
REACHING 30-35KTS IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LAYER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL INTRODUCE LLWS MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR THIS
EXPECTATION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280524
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVERHEAD...AND WILL REMAIN SO TONIGHT.
SOME THIN CIRRUS IS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. THESE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ON
WED. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH SINGLE-DIGIT READINGS ALREADY COMMON IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS. GIVEN CURRENT OBS...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN
EASTERN UPPER...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON COAST IN NE
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
TAF CYCLE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 06Z FOR MBL-TVC-PLN.  CURRENT
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE TO GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH FROM MBL-TVC-PLN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE THICKEST CLOUDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOWER CIG.

WINDS: CALM WINDS NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS FOR
THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LLWS:  LLEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
REACHING 30-35KTS IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LAYER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL INTRODUCE LLWS MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR THIS
EXPECTATION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280524
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVERHEAD...AND WILL REMAIN SO TONIGHT.
SOME THIN CIRRUS IS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. THESE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ON
WED. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH SINGLE-DIGIT READINGS ALREADY COMMON IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS. GIVEN CURRENT OBS...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN
EASTERN UPPER...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON COAST IN NE
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
TAF CYCLE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 06Z FOR MBL-TVC-PLN.  CURRENT
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE TO GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL
HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH FROM MBL-TVC-PLN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE THICKEST CLOUDS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...
THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE A LOWER CIG.

WINDS: CALM WINDS NOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS FOR
THE DAY TODAY WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 5KTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LLWS:  LLEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...
REACHING 30-35KTS IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT LAYER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL INTRODUCE LLWS MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE FOR THIS
EXPECTATION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280130
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
830 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVERHEAD...AND WILL REMAIN SO TONIGHT.
SOME THIN CIRRUS IS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. THESE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ON
WED. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH SINGLE-DIGIT READINGS ALREADY COMMON IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS. GIVEN CURRENT OBS...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN
EASTERN UPPER...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON COAST IN NE
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAINLY VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THRU WED MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE W LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. WE MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SCAVENGE SOME
TATTERS OF LAKE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE MI INTO MBL/TVC/PLN ON WED. DO
NOT EXPECT THESE TO ESTABLISH A CEILING...BUT SUPPOSE IT/S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THOSE SITES TO SEE CIG RESTRICTIONS WED.
OTHERWISE...COMFORTABLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ON WED. LLWS WILL DEVELOP
AT TVC/MBL WED EVENING...WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280130
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
830 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS PARKED OVERHEAD...AND WILL REMAIN SO TONIGHT.
SOME THIN CIRRUS IS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. THESE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ON
WED. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH SINGLE-DIGIT READINGS ALREADY COMMON IN NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS. GIVEN CURRENT OBS...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN
EASTERN UPPER...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON COAST IN NE
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAINLY VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THRU WED MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE W LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. WE MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SCAVENGE SOME
TATTERS OF LAKE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE MI INTO MBL/TVC/PLN ON WED. DO
NOT EXPECT THESE TO ESTABLISH A CEILING...BUT SUPPOSE IT/S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THOSE SITES TO SEE CIG RESTRICTIONS WED.
OTHERWISE...COMFORTABLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ON WED. LLWS WILL DEVELOP
AT TVC/MBL WED EVENING...WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272352
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAINLY VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THRU WED MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE W LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. WE MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SCAVENGE SOME
TATTERS OF LAKE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE MI INTO MBL/TVC/PLN ON WED. DO
NOT EXPECT THESE TO ESTABLISH A CEILING...BUT SUPPOSE IT/S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THOSE SITES TO SEE CIG RESTRICTIONS WED.
OTHERWISE...COMFORTABLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ON WED. LLWS WILL DEVELOP
AT TVC/MBL WED EVENING...WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272352
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAINLY VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THRU WED MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE W LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. WE MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SCAVENGE SOME
TATTERS OF LAKE CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE MI INTO MBL/TVC/PLN ON WED. DO
NOT EXPECT THESE TO ESTABLISH A CEILING...BUT SUPPOSE IT/S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR THOSE SITES TO SEE CIG RESTRICTIONS WED.
OTHERWISE...COMFORTABLY VFR.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ON WED. LLWS WILL DEVELOP
AT TVC/MBL WED EVENING...WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272117
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES GIVES WAY TO SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. SOME HINTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN PRODUCED MVFR STRATO-CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS KPLN/KTVC/KMBL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT GO
THIS ROUTE JUST YET.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272117
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BIG EAST COAST STORM REALLY
HELPING SLOW THE OVERHEAD PATTERN...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COMPLETE LACK
OF MOISTURE (A PALTRY 0.19 INCH PWAT VALUE ON LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING)
RESULTING IN QUITE THE SUNNY AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL..DEFINITELY NOT TOO SHABBY
OF A DAY FOR LATE WINTER ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: PER THE USUAL...A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE DURING INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-
DOWN SATURATION. INITIAL LIGHT WINDS INCREASE SOUTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING LAKE INDUCED STRATO-CU DECK UP INTO EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHWEST LOWER COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...EVENING LOOKS PRIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET...WITH NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. INTERESTINGLY...NO GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY COLD...PERHAPS
KEYING IN ON A SOMEWHAT STALL AND MODIFIED AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO
CUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...DROPPING READINGS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT COLDEST READINGS TO OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST
COAST TROUGH. A BIT OF A SUBTROPICAL SPLIT IN THE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH CALIFORNIA/
NEVADA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
NOW WELL UP IN EASTERN ALASKA...AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TIMING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH AND CORE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND AXIS OF "WARMER" AIR MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM
PHASING OF ENERGY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
HELPING TO SPIN UP A DECENT SFC LOW (DOWN AROUND 1005 MB) IN THE
PLAINS...TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION FORCING/QG-ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BUT INITIALLY...QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SNOW GOING. SO...HAVE
SOME INITIAL CHANCY POPS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINGS DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS AWFULLY WARM ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 0C H8
LINE JUST SKIRTING THE SRN REACHES OF THE CWA...AND SUGGESTING
FAIRLY LOW SNOW:WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OUT OF THIS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA APPEARS ON TARGET...AND PERHAPS AROUND 3 INCHES WHERE
SNOWFALL PERSISTS THE LONGEST (NRN HALF OF THE CWA).

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. WITH -16C TO
-22C H8 AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY... EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT. SO AT THIS
POINT...I DON/T FORESEE ANY HEADLINABLE SNOW AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT MIGHT HAVE AT LEAST A MINOR TRAVEL IMPACT. WILL SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT BEING LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR PARADISE/WHITEFISH
POINT IN THE EASTERN U.P.   ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIMILARLY TIMED...A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO (AND THE
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

COLD AIR LOOKS SET TO SPILL INTO NRN MICHIGAN EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT OF H8 TEMPS OF -24C TO -28C ARRIVING
DURING THE DAY MONDAY..PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS
DEGREE OF COLD AIR VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE U.P.
ALONG WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RETURNING FOR NORTH FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW LES BELTS AS WINDS VEER DURING THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES GIVES WAY TO SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. SOME HINTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN PRODUCED MVFR STRATO-CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS KPLN/KTVC/KMBL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT GO
THIS ROUTE JUST YET.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1230 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

INHERITED FORECAST WORKING OUT AS PLANNED. STILL SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY HUGGING THE LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF
ALPENA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END AS FLOW GOES NORTH AND DRY AIR
DEEPENS. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

REGIONAL PATTERN: CAN/T HELP BUT NOTICE THE CLASSIC SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ALAS THE WEATHER IS A GOOD BIT QUIETER IN
THESE PARTS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
DEEPENING EASTERN NOAM TROUGH AND LONGWAVE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG
THE ROCKIES ENSURING A CONTINUED FLOW OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
BAND OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS
WRITING...ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CENTERED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING LOW
EVIDENT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H8...AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION FROM SOUTHEASTWARD DROPPING SHORTWAVE /SEEN AS A NICE
SWIRL IN WV IMAGERY DROPPING THROUGH MICHIGAN/. THIS MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME LLEVEL DRY WEDGE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  FINALLY...LLEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH IS SUPPORTING
LAKE CLOUDS/-SHSN ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER WITH
T8S AROUND -11C.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST FROM PZQ TO SLH WILL CONTINUE TO FAN OUT AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTH
BY BACKING LLEVEL FLOW.  WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RETURNS FURTHER
SOUTH FROM APN TO HARRISVILLE...AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...SO
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  ELSEWHERE...APX 88D
SHOWING BAND OF -SN MAKING IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH TO NW LOWER WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE LLEVEL DRY WEDGE
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z APX RAOB IS HOLDING STRONG.  EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING REACHING
CHIP/MACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA SHOULD SNEAK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEMPS REMAINING 10-15 SOUTH OF THE
MIGHTY MAC.

TODAY: TEMPORARY REX BLOCK STRENGTHENS ALONG THE US EAST COAST WITH
CLASSIC HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO MID
LEVELS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAKENING TO SURFACE SYSTEM
WEST OF THE LAKES THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH AWAY TODAY.  WITH THIS
OCCURRING AND OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...THREAT FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL BE OVER.  MORE
COMPLICATED WILL BE LLEVEL MOISTURE EVOLUTION...WITH CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BACKING NORTHEASTERLY AS DOWNSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW EROSION FROM EAST TO
WEST OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SUN RESULTING.  EXCEPTION WILL
AGAIN LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST OF LAKE HURON...WITH SOME
CLOUDS/FLURRIES PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTH OF APN
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  BY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW LOSES ITS EASTERLY
COMPONENT...CLEARING SHOULD PRETTY MUCH REACH ALL LOCATIONS.  T9S
NEAR -12C SUGGEST LOW 20S FOR TEMPERATURES...RIGHT IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT:  POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH WESTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD BY
EVENING...SINKING SOUTH AND ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NEVER A GUARANTEE GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS...AND WITH
BACKING FLOW...FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LLEVEL TEMPS
THAT...DESPITE WARMING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  AT THE SAME TIME...FIRST HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMMENCES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THUS...CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS GREATEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER /WHERE CLOUD CONCERNS ARE GREATEST/ AND
EASTERN UPPER...WHERE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IS STRONGEST
HERE /H1000 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS 15-20KTS/ THREATENING TO KEEP THE
LLEVELS MIXED.  OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-5F OR SO.  TEMPS 10-15 IMMEDIATE COAST OF NW LOWER...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

A GENERAL RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST PATTER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR
AWHILE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC/ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND SHORTWAVES INTO WESTERN CANADA...SET TO DRIVE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT WAVE/CLIPPER IS FAIRLY DECENT...ALREADY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND WITH PWATS NEAR A RESPECTABLE 0.75". THERE IS
ALSO A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA...UNDERNEATH THE OVERALL
RIDGING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN
CLIPPER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

BACK DOOR DRYING FROM NE FLOW EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL RAPIDLY TURN
CLOUDY WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEP WAA...POCKET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND OVERALL RESPECTABLE AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER -DIVQ. THESE
ARE THE RESULT OF MERGING/NEAR MERGING TWO WAVES...WHICH MAY ALSO
LEAD TO A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS. RIGHT
NOW...THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER. AM CONCERNED TO SOME DEGREE OF THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE INITIALLY...NO GULF...AND MUCH OF THE FORCING LIKELY BEING
USED UP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THOSE PWATS AND
PRESENCE OF BOTH WAVES COULD BRING A GOOD 2-4" ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
DO NOT SEE ANY LAKE HELP WITH LAKE SFC T`S 1-3C AND H8 TEMPS RISING
TOWARD 0C TO -2C WHEN SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL
SNOWS ARE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FGEN...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SNOWS
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE FORCING
WANES AND DEEP DRYING ENSUES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING
TO -16C TO -20C....AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LIKELY. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A FEW CHANGES. VERY CHILLY AIR AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRY AND WORK ON
LINGERING...YET LOOSENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. NO IMPRESSED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND MAY JUST BE DEALING WITH SOME REMNANT LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. OF MORE NOTE...ANOTHER CALIFORNIA TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING MAY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN TEXAS SATURDAY. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A SYSTEM TAP
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...AND MOVE UP OUR WAY SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAYBE A BETTER SNOW?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES GIVES WAY TO SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. SOME HINTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN PRODUCED MVFR STRATO-CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS KPLN/KTVC/KMBL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT GO
THIS ROUTE JUST YET.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1230 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

INHERITED FORECAST WORKING OUT AS PLANNED. STILL SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY HUGGING THE LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF
ALPENA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END AS FLOW GOES NORTH AND DRY AIR
DEEPENS. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

REGIONAL PATTERN: CAN/T HELP BUT NOTICE THE CLASSIC SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ALAS THE WEATHER IS A GOOD BIT QUIETER IN
THESE PARTS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
DEEPENING EASTERN NOAM TROUGH AND LONGWAVE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG
THE ROCKIES ENSURING A CONTINUED FLOW OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
BAND OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS
WRITING...ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CENTERED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING LOW
EVIDENT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H8...AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION FROM SOUTHEASTWARD DROPPING SHORTWAVE /SEEN AS A NICE
SWIRL IN WV IMAGERY DROPPING THROUGH MICHIGAN/. THIS MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME LLEVEL DRY WEDGE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  FINALLY...LLEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH IS SUPPORTING
LAKE CLOUDS/-SHSN ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER WITH
T8S AROUND -11C.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST FROM PZQ TO SLH WILL CONTINUE TO FAN OUT AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTH
BY BACKING LLEVEL FLOW.  WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RETURNS FURTHER
SOUTH FROM APN TO HARRISVILLE...AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...SO
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  ELSEWHERE...APX 88D
SHOWING BAND OF -SN MAKING IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH TO NW LOWER WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE LLEVEL DRY WEDGE
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z APX RAOB IS HOLDING STRONG.  EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING REACHING
CHIP/MACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA SHOULD SNEAK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEMPS REMAINING 10-15 SOUTH OF THE
MIGHTY MAC.

TODAY: TEMPORARY REX BLOCK STRENGTHENS ALONG THE US EAST COAST WITH
CLASSIC HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO MID
LEVELS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAKENING TO SURFACE SYSTEM
WEST OF THE LAKES THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH AWAY TODAY.  WITH THIS
OCCURRING AND OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...THREAT FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL BE OVER.  MORE
COMPLICATED WILL BE LLEVEL MOISTURE EVOLUTION...WITH CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BACKING NORTHEASTERLY AS DOWNSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW EROSION FROM EAST TO
WEST OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SUN RESULTING.  EXCEPTION WILL
AGAIN LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST OF LAKE HURON...WITH SOME
CLOUDS/FLURRIES PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTH OF APN
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  BY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW LOSES ITS EASTERLY
COMPONENT...CLEARING SHOULD PRETTY MUCH REACH ALL LOCATIONS.  T9S
NEAR -12C SUGGEST LOW 20S FOR TEMPERATURES...RIGHT IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT:  POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH WESTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD BY
EVENING...SINKING SOUTH AND ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NEVER A GUARANTEE GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS...AND WITH
BACKING FLOW...FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LLEVEL TEMPS
THAT...DESPITE WARMING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  AT THE SAME TIME...FIRST HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMMENCES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THUS...CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS GREATEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER /WHERE CLOUD CONCERNS ARE GREATEST/ AND
EASTERN UPPER...WHERE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IS STRONGEST
HERE /H1000 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS 15-20KTS/ THREATENING TO KEEP THE
LLEVELS MIXED.  OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-5F OR SO.  TEMPS 10-15 IMMEDIATE COAST OF NW LOWER...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

A GENERAL RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST PATTER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR
AWHILE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC/ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND SHORTWAVES INTO WESTERN CANADA...SET TO DRIVE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT WAVE/CLIPPER IS FAIRLY DECENT...ALREADY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND WITH PWATS NEAR A RESPECTABLE 0.75". THERE IS
ALSO A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA...UNDERNEATH THE OVERALL
RIDGING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN
CLIPPER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

BACK DOOR DRYING FROM NE FLOW EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL RAPIDLY TURN
CLOUDY WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEP WAA...POCKET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND OVERALL RESPECTABLE AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER -DIVQ. THESE
ARE THE RESULT OF MERGING/NEAR MERGING TWO WAVES...WHICH MAY ALSO
LEAD TO A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS. RIGHT
NOW...THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER. AM CONCERNED TO SOME DEGREE OF THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE INITIALLY...NO GULF...AND MUCH OF THE FORCING LIKELY BEING
USED UP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THOSE PWATS AND
PRESENCE OF BOTH WAVES COULD BRING A GOOD 2-4" ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
DO NOT SEE ANY LAKE HELP WITH LAKE SFC T`S 1-3C AND H8 TEMPS RISING
TOWARD 0C TO -2C WHEN SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL
SNOWS ARE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FGEN...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SNOWS
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE FORCING
WANES AND DEEP DRYING ENSUES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING
TO -16C TO -20C....AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LIKELY. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A FEW CHANGES. VERY CHILLY AIR AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRY AND WORK ON
LINGERING...YET LOOSENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. NO IMPRESSED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND MAY JUST BE DEALING WITH SOME REMNANT LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. OF MORE NOTE...ANOTHER CALIFORNIA TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING MAY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN TEXAS SATURDAY. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A SYSTEM TAP
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...AND MOVE UP OUR WAY SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAYBE A BETTER SNOW?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES GIVES WAY TO SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. SOME HINTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN PRODUCED MVFR STRATO-CU
DEVELOPING ACROSS KPLN/KTVC/KMBL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT GO
THIS ROUTE JUST YET.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

INHERITED FORECAST WORKING OUT AS PLANNED. STILL SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY HUGGING THE LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF
ALPENA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END AS FLOW GOES NORTH AND DRY AIR
DEEPENS. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

REGIONAL PATTERN: CAN/T HELP BUT NOTICE THE CLASSIC SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ALAS THE WEATHER IS A GOOD BIT QUIETER IN
THESE PARTS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
DEEPENING EASTERN NOAM TROUGH AND LONGWAVE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG
THE ROCKIES ENSURING A CONTINUED FLOW OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
BAND OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS
WRITING...ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CENTERED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING LOW
EVIDENT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H8...AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION FROM SOUTHEASTWARD DROPPING SHORTWAVE /SEEN AS A NICE
SWIRL IN WV IMAGERY DROPPING THROUGH MICHIGAN/. THIS MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME LLEVEL DRY WEDGE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  FINALLY...LLEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH IS SUPPORTING
LAKE CLOUDS/-SHSN ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER WITH
T8S AROUND -11C.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST FROM PZQ TO SLH WILL CONTINUE TO FAN OUT AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTH
BY BACKING LLEVEL FLOW.  WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RETURNS FURTHER
SOUTH FROM APN TO HARRISVILLE...AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...SO
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  ELSEWHERE...APX 88D
SHOWING BAND OF -SN MAKING IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH TO NW LOWER WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE LLEVEL DRY WEDGE
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z APX RAOB IS HOLDING STRONG.  EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING REACHING
CHIP/MACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA SHOULD SNEAK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEMPS REMAINING 10-15 SOUTH OF THE
MIGHTY MAC.

TODAY: TEMPORARY REX BLOCK STRENGTHENS ALONG THE US EAST COAST WITH
CLASSIC HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO MID
LEVELS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAKENING TO SURFACE SYSTEM
WEST OF THE LAKES THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH AWAY TODAY.  WITH THIS
OCCURRING AND OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...THREAT FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL BE OVER.  MORE
COMPLICATED WILL BE LLEVEL MOISTURE EVOLUTION...WITH CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BACKING NORTHEASTERLY AS DOWNSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW EROSION FROM EAST TO
WEST OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SUN RESULTING.  EXCEPTION WILL
AGAIN LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST OF LAKE HURON...WITH SOME
CLOUDS/FLURRIES PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTH OF APN
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  BY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW LOSES ITS EASTERLY
COMPONENT...CLEARING SHOULD PRETTY MUCH REACH ALL LOCATIONS.  T9S
NEAR -12C SUGGEST LOW 20S FOR TEMPERATURES...RIGHT IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT:  POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH WESTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD BY
EVENING...SINKING SOUTH AND ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NEVER A GUARANTEE GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS...AND WITH
BACKING FLOW...FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LLEVEL TEMPS
THAT...DESPITE WARMING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  AT THE SAME TIME...FIRST HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMMENCES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THUS...CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS GREATEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER /WHERE CLOUD CONCERNS ARE GREATEST/ AND
EASTERN UPPER...WHERE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IS STRONGEST
HERE /H1000 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS 15-20KTS/ THREATENING TO KEEP THE
LLEVELS MIXED.  OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-5F OR SO.  TEMPS 10-15 IMMEDIATE COAST OF NW LOWER...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

A GENERAL RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST PATTER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR
AWHILE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC/ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND SHORTWAVES INTO WESTERN CANADA...SET TO DRIVE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT WAVE/CLIPPER IS FAIRLY DECENT...ALREADY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND WITH PWATS NEAR A RESPECTABLE 0.75". THERE IS
ALSO A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA...UNDERNEATH THE OVERALL
RIDGING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN
CLIPPER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

BACK DOOR DRYING FROM NE FLOW EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL RAPIDLY TURN
CLOUDY WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEP WAA...POCKET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND OVERALL RESPECTABLE AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER -DIVQ. THESE
ARE THE RESULT OF MERGING/NEAR MERGING TWO WAVES...WHICH MAY ALSO
LEAD TO A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS. RIGHT
NOW...THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER. AM CONCERNED TO SOME DEGREE OF THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE INITIALLY...NO GULF...AND MUCH OF THE FORCING LIKELY BEING
USED UP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THOSE PWATS AND
PRESENCE OF BOTH WAVES COULD BRING A GOOD 2-4" ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
DO NOT SEE ANY LAKE HELP WITH LAKE SFC T`S 1-3C AND H8 TEMPS RISING
TOWARD 0C TO -2C WHEN SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL
SNOWS ARE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FGEN...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SNOWS
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE FORCING
WANES AND DEEP DRYING ENSUES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING
TO -16C TO -20C....AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LIKELY. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A FEW CHANGES. VERY CHILLY AIR AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRY AND WORK ON
LINGERING...YET LOOSENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. NO IMPRESSED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND MAY JUST BE DEALING WITH SOME REMNANT LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. OF MORE NOTE...ANOTHER CALIFORNIA TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING MAY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN TEXAS SATURDAY. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A SYSTEM TAP
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...AND MOVE UP OUR WAY SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAYBE A BETTER SNOW?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEARING AND VFR EXPECTED NOW ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL HAVE SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.

WINDS: NORTHEAST 5-10KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING NORTH
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING TO CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

INHERITED FORECAST WORKING OUT AS PLANNED. STILL SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY HUGGING THE LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF
ALPENA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END AS FLOW GOES NORTH AND DRY AIR
DEEPENS. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

REGIONAL PATTERN: CAN/T HELP BUT NOTICE THE CLASSIC SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ALAS THE WEATHER IS A GOOD BIT QUIETER IN
THESE PARTS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
DEEPENING EASTERN NOAM TROUGH AND LONGWAVE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG
THE ROCKIES ENSURING A CONTINUED FLOW OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
BAND OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS
WRITING...ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CENTERED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING LOW
EVIDENT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H8...AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION FROM SOUTHEASTWARD DROPPING SHORTWAVE /SEEN AS A NICE
SWIRL IN WV IMAGERY DROPPING THROUGH MICHIGAN/. THIS MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME LLEVEL DRY WEDGE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  FINALLY...LLEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH IS SUPPORTING
LAKE CLOUDS/-SHSN ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER WITH
T8S AROUND -11C.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST FROM PZQ TO SLH WILL CONTINUE TO FAN OUT AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTH
BY BACKING LLEVEL FLOW.  WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RETURNS FURTHER
SOUTH FROM APN TO HARRISVILLE...AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...SO
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  ELSEWHERE...APX 88D
SHOWING BAND OF -SN MAKING IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH TO NW LOWER WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE LLEVEL DRY WEDGE
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z APX RAOB IS HOLDING STRONG.  EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING REACHING
CHIP/MACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA SHOULD SNEAK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEMPS REMAINING 10-15 SOUTH OF THE
MIGHTY MAC.

TODAY: TEMPORARY REX BLOCK STRENGTHENS ALONG THE US EAST COAST WITH
CLASSIC HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO MID
LEVELS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAKENING TO SURFACE SYSTEM
WEST OF THE LAKES THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH AWAY TODAY.  WITH THIS
OCCURRING AND OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...THREAT FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL BE OVER.  MORE
COMPLICATED WILL BE LLEVEL MOISTURE EVOLUTION...WITH CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BACKING NORTHEASTERLY AS DOWNSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW EROSION FROM EAST TO
WEST OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SUN RESULTING.  EXCEPTION WILL
AGAIN LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST OF LAKE HURON...WITH SOME
CLOUDS/FLURRIES PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTH OF APN
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  BY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW LOSES ITS EASTERLY
COMPONENT...CLEARING SHOULD PRETTY MUCH REACH ALL LOCATIONS.  T9S
NEAR -12C SUGGEST LOW 20S FOR TEMPERATURES...RIGHT IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT:  POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH WESTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD BY
EVENING...SINKING SOUTH AND ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NEVER A GUARANTEE GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS...AND WITH
BACKING FLOW...FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LLEVEL TEMPS
THAT...DESPITE WARMING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  AT THE SAME TIME...FIRST HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMMENCES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THUS...CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS GREATEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER /WHERE CLOUD CONCERNS ARE GREATEST/ AND
EASTERN UPPER...WHERE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IS STRONGEST
HERE /H1000 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS 15-20KTS/ THREATENING TO KEEP THE
LLEVELS MIXED.  OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-5F OR SO.  TEMPS 10-15 IMMEDIATE COAST OF NW LOWER...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

A GENERAL RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST PATTER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR
AWHILE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC/ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND SHORTWAVES INTO WESTERN CANADA...SET TO DRIVE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT WAVE/CLIPPER IS FAIRLY DECENT...ALREADY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND WITH PWATS NEAR A RESPECTABLE 0.75". THERE IS
ALSO A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA...UNDERNEATH THE OVERALL
RIDGING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN
CLIPPER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

BACK DOOR DRYING FROM NE FLOW EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL RAPIDLY TURN
CLOUDY WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEP WAA...POCKET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND OVERALL RESPECTABLE AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER -DIVQ. THESE
ARE THE RESULT OF MERGING/NEAR MERGING TWO WAVES...WHICH MAY ALSO
LEAD TO A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS. RIGHT
NOW...THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER. AM CONCERNED TO SOME DEGREE OF THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE INITIALLY...NO GULF...AND MUCH OF THE FORCING LIKELY BEING
USED UP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THOSE PWATS AND
PRESENCE OF BOTH WAVES COULD BRING A GOOD 2-4" ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
DO NOT SEE ANY LAKE HELP WITH LAKE SFC T`S 1-3C AND H8 TEMPS RISING
TOWARD 0C TO -2C WHEN SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL
SNOWS ARE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FGEN...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SNOWS
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE FORCING
WANES AND DEEP DRYING ENSUES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING
TO -16C TO -20C....AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LIKELY. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A FEW CHANGES. VERY CHILLY AIR AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRY AND WORK ON
LINGERING...YET LOOSENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. NO IMPRESSED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND MAY JUST BE DEALING WITH SOME REMNANT LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. OF MORE NOTE...ANOTHER CALIFORNIA TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING MAY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN TEXAS SATURDAY. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A SYSTEM TAP
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...AND MOVE UP OUR WAY SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAYBE A BETTER SNOW?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEARING AND VFR EXPECTED NOW ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL HAVE SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.

WINDS: NORTHEAST 5-10KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING NORTH
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING TO CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271130
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

REGIONAL PATTERN: CAN/T HELP BUT NOTICE THE CLASSIC SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ALAS THE WEATHER IS A GOOD BIT QUIETER IN
THESE PARTS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
DEEPENING EASTERN NOAM TROUGH AND LONGWAVE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG
THE ROCKIES ENSURING A CONTINUED FLOW OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
BAND OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF THIS
WRITING...ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CENTERED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD DROPPING LOW
EVIDENT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H8...AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL
CONTRIBUTION FROM SOUTHEASTWARD DROPPING SHORTWAVE /SEEN AS A NICE
SWIRL IN WV IMAGERY DROPPING THROUGH MICHIGAN/. THIS MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME LLEVEL DRY WEDGE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  FINALLY...LLEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN HIGH IS SUPPORTING
LAKE CLOUDS/-SHSN ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER WITH
T8S AROUND -11C.

THROUGH DAYBREAK: LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST FROM PZQ TO SLH WILL CONTINUE TO FAN OUT AS IT IS PUSHED SOUTH
BY BACKING LLEVEL FLOW.  WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RETURNS FURTHER
SOUTH FROM APN TO HARRISVILLE...AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE...SO
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  ELSEWHERE...APX 88D
SHOWING BAND OF -SN MAKING IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH TO NW LOWER WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE LLEVEL DRY WEDGE
EVIDENT IN THE 00Z APX RAOB IS HOLDING STRONG.  EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING REACHING
CHIP/MACK TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA SHOULD SNEAK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEMPS REMAINING 10-15 SOUTH OF THE
MIGHTY MAC.

TODAY: TEMPORARY REX BLOCK STRENGTHENS ALONG THE US EAST COAST WITH
CLASSIC HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO MID
LEVELS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAKENING TO SURFACE SYSTEM
WEST OF THE LAKES THAT WILL PRETTY MUCH WASH AWAY TODAY.  WITH THIS
OCCURRING AND OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...THREAT FOR SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL BE OVER.  MORE
COMPLICATED WILL BE LLEVEL MOISTURE EVOLUTION...WITH CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BACKING NORTHEASTERLY AS DOWNSTREAM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW EROSION FROM EAST TO
WEST OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SUN RESULTING.  EXCEPTION WILL
AGAIN LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST OF LAKE HURON...WITH SOME
CLOUDS/FLURRIES PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTH OF APN
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER.  BY AFTERNOON...AS THE FLOW LOSES ITS EASTERLY
COMPONENT...CLEARING SHOULD PRETTY MUCH REACH ALL LOCATIONS.  T9S
NEAR -12C SUGGEST LOW 20S FOR TEMPERATURES...RIGHT IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT:  POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH WESTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD BY
EVENING...SINKING SOUTH AND ALLOWING FLOW TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NEVER A GUARANTEE GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS...AND WITH
BACKING FLOW...FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LLEVEL TEMPS
THAT...DESPITE WARMING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  AT THE SAME TIME...FIRST HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOK TO ARRIVE AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMMENCES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THUS...CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS GREATEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST LOWER /WHERE CLOUD CONCERNS ARE GREATEST/ AND
EASTERN UPPER...WHERE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IS STRONGEST
HERE /H1000 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS 15-20KTS/ THREATENING TO KEEP THE
LLEVELS MIXED.  OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
OR BELOW ZERO AGAIN...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
-5F OR SO.  TEMPS 10-15 IMMEDIATE COAST OF NW LOWER...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR EASTERN UPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PATTERN DESCRIPTION AND EVOLUTION:

A GENERAL RIDGE WEST AND TROUGH EAST PATTER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR
AWHILE. LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC/ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
SEND SHORTWAVES INTO WESTERN CANADA...SET TO DRIVE TOWARD NRN
MICHIGAN. THE NEXT WAVE/CLIPPER IS FAIRLY DECENT...ALREADY INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND WITH PWATS NEAR A RESPECTABLE 0.75". THERE IS
ALSO A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA...UNDERNEATH THE OVERALL
RIDGING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...POSSIBLY WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN
CLIPPER.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

BACK DOOR DRYING FROM NE FLOW EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL RAPIDLY TURN
CLOUDY WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEP WAA...POCKET OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND OVERALL RESPECTABLE AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER -DIVQ. THESE
ARE THE RESULT OF MERGING/NEAR MERGING TWO WAVES...WHICH MAY ALSO
LEAD TO A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS. RIGHT
NOW...THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER. AM CONCERNED TO SOME DEGREE OF THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE INITIALLY...NO GULF...AND MUCH OF THE FORCING LIKELY BEING
USED UP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THOSE PWATS AND
PRESENCE OF BOTH WAVES COULD BRING A GOOD 2-4" ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN.
DO NOT SEE ANY LAKE HELP WITH LAKE SFC T`S 1-3C AND H8 TEMPS RISING
TOWARD 0C TO -2C WHEN SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL
SNOWS ARE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING FGEN...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SNOWS
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE FORCING
WANES AND DEEP DRYING ENSUES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING
TO -16C TO -20C....AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LIKELY. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A FEW CHANGES. VERY CHILLY AIR AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT TRY AND WORK ON
LINGERING...YET LOOSENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. NO IMPRESSED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND MAY JUST BE DEALING WITH SOME REMNANT LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. OF MORE NOTE...ANOTHER CALIFORNIA TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING MAY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS WHILE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN TEXAS SATURDAY. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A SYSTEM TAP
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...AND MOVE UP OUR WAY SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE COMING
DAYS. MAYBE A BETTER SNOW?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR IS PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEARING AND VFR EXPECTED NOW ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL HAVE SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.

WINDS: NORTHEAST 5-10KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING NORTH
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING TO CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD





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