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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SE
ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. ALL WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY EXITED OUR CWA EARLIER TODAY...AND EVEN ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE MOVED OUT. A SMALL
AREA OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF ERN
WISCONSIN TOWARD NW LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. THIS CONVECTION DID PRODUCE
SOME LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN....FUELED WITHIN THE 850 MB THETA E AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS. THIS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF BOTH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET AND GENERAL INSTABILITY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN ATTM.
LATEST RAP13 DOES SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE 850 MB THETA E AXIS AND
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSH FURTHER NE INTO MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD LEND TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THANKS TO SW WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10
KTS. SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MBL.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW THE CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAFS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SE
ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. ALL WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY EXITED OUR CWA EARLIER TODAY...AND EVEN ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE MOVED OUT. A SMALL
AREA OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF ERN
WISCONSIN TOWARD NW LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. THIS CONVECTION DID PRODUCE
SOME LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN....FUELED WITHIN THE 850 MB THETA E AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS. THIS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF BOTH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET AND GENERAL INSTABILITY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN ATTM.
LATEST RAP13 DOES SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE 850 MB THETA E AXIS AND
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSH FURTHER NE INTO MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD LEND TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THANKS TO SW WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10
KTS. SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MBL.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW THE CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAFS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SE
ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. ALL WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY EXITED OUR CWA EARLIER TODAY...AND EVEN ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE MOVED OUT. A SMALL
AREA OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF ERN
WISCONSIN TOWARD NW LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. THIS CONVECTION DID PRODUCE
SOME LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN....FUELED WITHIN THE 850 MB THETA E AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS. THIS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF BOTH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET AND GENERAL INSTABILITY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN ATTM.
LATEST RAP13 DOES SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE 850 MB THETA E AXIS AND
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSH FURTHER NE INTO MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD LEND TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THANKS TO SW WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10
KTS. SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MBL.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW THE CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAFS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SE
ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. ALL WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY EXITED OUR CWA EARLIER TODAY...AND EVEN ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE MOVED OUT. A SMALL
AREA OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF ERN
WISCONSIN TOWARD NW LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. THIS CONVECTION DID PRODUCE
SOME LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN....FUELED WITHIN THE 850 MB THETA E AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS. THIS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF BOTH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET AND GENERAL INSTABILITY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN ATTM.
LATEST RAP13 DOES SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE 850 MB THETA E AXIS AND
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSH FURTHER NE INTO MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD LEND TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THANKS TO SW WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10
KTS. SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MBL.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW THE CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAFS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THANKS TO SW WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10
KTS. SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MBL.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW THE CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-
     031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 252300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THANKS TO SW WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10
KTS. SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MBL.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SOME LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW THE CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN OUR TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-
     031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED TVC AND MBL AND SHOULD ALSO
PASS THROUGH APN AND PLN SHORTLY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT STILL SOME MVFR CIGS MIXED IN WHICH COULD LINGER
INTO MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A LULL IN
ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (SAVE FOR PERHAPS
A SHOWER AT PLN) WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY FROM 18Z ONWARD). REALLY TOUGH CIG
FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT
WITH A LITTLE WIND ALL NIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ020-
     025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED TVC AND MBL AND SHOULD ALSO
PASS THROUGH APN AND PLN SHORTLY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT STILL SOME MVFR CIGS MIXED IN WHICH COULD LINGER
INTO MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A LULL IN
ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (SAVE FOR PERHAPS
A SHOWER AT PLN) WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY FROM 18Z ONWARD). REALLY TOUGH CIG
FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT
WITH A LITTLE WIND ALL NIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ020-
     025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...BUT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WING OF
LIGHTER RAIN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SO THE MAIN QUESTION
IS...WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ANSWER IS NOT AN EASY ONE...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TIED TO
STRENGTH OF CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING DUE TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SO AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO GET GOING THOUGH...WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE A BIT STRONG WITH 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATING 50
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED TVC AND MBL AND SHOULD ALSO
PASS THROUGH APN AND PLN SHORTLY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT STILL SOME MVFR CIGS MIXED IN WHICH COULD LINGER
INTO MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A LULL IN
ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (SAVE FOR PERHAPS
A SHOWER AT PLN) WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY FROM 18Z ONWARD). REALLY TOUGH CIG
FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT
WITH A LITTLE WIND ALL NIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ020-
     025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...BUT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WING OF
LIGHTER RAIN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SO THE MAIN QUESTION
IS...WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ANSWER IS NOT AN EASY ONE...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TIED TO
STRENGTH OF CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING DUE TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SO AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO GET GOING THOUGH...WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE A BIT STRONG WITH 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATING 50
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED TVC AND MBL AND SHOULD ALSO
PASS THROUGH APN AND PLN SHORTLY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BUT STILL SOME MVFR CIGS MIXED IN WHICH COULD LINGER
INTO MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A LULL IN
ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (SAVE FOR PERHAPS
A SHOWER AT PLN) WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY FROM 18Z ONWARD). REALLY TOUGH CIG
FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT BUT
WITH A LITTLE WIND ALL NIGHT...IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ020-
     025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251450
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...BUT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WING OF
LIGHTER RAIN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SO THE MAIN QUESTION
IS...WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ANSWER IS NOT AN EASY ONE...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TIED TO
STRENGTH OF CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING DUE TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SO AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO GET GOING THOUGH...WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE A BIT STRONG WITH 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATING 50
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THEN VERY GUSTY AND WARM...

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL MARK THE MORNING HOURS WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NW
LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL THE
RAIN EXITS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THEN...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN NE
LOWER/APN. MAYBE A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
PLN...NEAR APPROACHING SFC BASED TROUGHING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251450
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...BUT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WING OF
LIGHTER RAIN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SO THE MAIN QUESTION
IS...WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ANSWER IS NOT AN EASY ONE...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TIED TO
STRENGTH OF CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING DUE TO THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SO AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO GET GOING THOUGH...WINDS OFF
THE DECK ARE A BIT STRONG WITH 12Z APX SOUNDING INDICATING 50
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THEN VERY GUSTY AND WARM...

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL MARK THE MORNING HOURS WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NW
LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL THE
RAIN EXITS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THEN...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN NE
LOWER/APN. MAYBE A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
PLN...NEAR APPROACHING SFC BASED TROUGHING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251053
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
653 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THEN VERY GUSTY AND WARM...

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL MARK THE MORNING HOURS WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NW
LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL THE
RAIN EXITS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THEN...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS SCENARIO
OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN NE
LOWER/APN. MAYBE A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
PLN...NEAR APPROACHING SFC BASED TROUGHING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 250758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THEN VERY GUSTY AND WARM...

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL MARK THE MORNING HOURS WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NW
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL EXIT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN PARTLY SUNNY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT
OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 250758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THEN VERY GUSTY AND WARM...

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL MARK THE MORNING HOURS WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NW
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL EXIT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN PARTLY SUNNY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT
OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 250758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THEN VERY GUSTY AND WARM...

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL MARK THE MORNING HOURS WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NW
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL EXIT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN PARTLY SUNNY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT
OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 250758
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WAS ESTABLISHED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD...WHILE RIDGING CONTROLLED THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING THROUGH SRN MN
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AXIS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER WAS STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY A
STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS. THERE WAS ALSO SOME FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD...BURIED UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WERE FALLING OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN IN SPOTS AROUND
THE GTV BAY REGION/MANISTEE/CADILLAC. THESE AREAS WERE EMBEDDED IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE CHANNEL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY (PWATS 1.8")...AND
WHERE THERE WAS A CONTINUED FEED OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IL.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WERE UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THUNDER WAS NOT HEARD AS
OF YET.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HELD UP AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME
AROUND THE STRAITS...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BLOW RIGHT THROUGH
ALL OF THE REGION...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RATHER DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGHING THEN LINGERS JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT AND NOSE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION STILL
FEEDING UP THROUGH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IL/INDIANA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-HEAVY RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HAVE EXITED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE THE SUN AND STRONG GUSTY SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN LOWER. WIND GUSTS TO 30MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL SOME HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE IS NO CAP IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO FORCE AIR TO LIFT THOUGH...ONLY THE
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGHING DOES
TRY AND LEAK INTO THE NW CWA TONIGHT...SO MAYBE SOME ISOLATED AND
RENEGADE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VERY MILD LOWS
TONIGHT...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN NRN LOWER...WITH MIDDLE 50S IN
EASTERN UPPER AFTER HIGHS THERE MIDDLE 60S (SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF COOL
WATER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A VERY MARGINAL
RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS (DOWN TOWARD
SAGINAW BAY)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS FROM RECENT DAYS...WITH THE OVERALL FLAVOR
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING TO BE WELL ON TRACK. THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN SLOWLY
INTO MIDWEEK...SENDING OUT VARIOUS PIECES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AS IT DOES SO. THE FIRST OF THESE IS OF COURSE DRIVING OUR
MUCH-NEEDED RAIN AT THE MOMENT AND WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A SECOND PIECE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE
(OVER NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY) IS PROGGED TO HELP LIFT A BIT OF A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY...WITH
LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE HELPING POOL
DEW POINTS AND RECOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM A BRIEF STINT OF
DRYING MONDAY NIGHT.

STILL HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG TRIGGER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS
RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE WATER) AND EXPECTED HEATING
OF TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND LIKELY EVEN 80S (BARRING CLOUD
ISSUES)...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER IN
EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...AND PROBABLY PUSHING 1000 J/KG NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL STRONGER SHEAR DOES
AT LEAST GIVE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SECTIONS BENEATH THE STRONGER JET CORE
ALOFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH AT LEAST. OTHERWISE...APPROACH OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED NEXT WAVE SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/
EMBEDDED THUNDER BACK THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.

TO BE HONEST...NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW TO HANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SORTS OF CHANGE AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. LATEST TRENDS
CONTINUE THE DAY-SHIFT IDEA OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE HELPING DRIVE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE USUAL SPOTS OF
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOCAL TURNING OF THE WINDS IN A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND BY THAT POINT...WITH MODELS NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST AROUND
THESE PARTS THANKS TO OUR SOILS...EVEN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS. CERTAINLY WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION
BUT DON`T FORESEE A WASHOUT BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERIOD OF CHANGE LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SQUEEZE IN SOME LATE MAY WARMTH FOR LATE
WEEK. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO DELIVER A DAY WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES...BEFORE WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT MAKING AN APPROACH
BY FRIDAY. TIMING OF COURSE STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...BUT THE
BASIC TREND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD TO
WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING
SIGNALS FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DEGREE
OF THAT COOLNESS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT JUST
HOW FAST AND FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DICTATE PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE DON`T DO MUCH TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE...AS WE HAVE SEEN THESE
TYPES OF SETUPS RESULT IN SNEAKY PERSISTENT RAINS IN THE PAST WITH
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD...SLOWLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEORETICALLY ARRIVES. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ALL UNFOLD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THEN VERY GUSTY AND WARM...

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL MARK THE MORNING HOURS WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NW
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE RAIN WILL EXIT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN PARTLY SUNNY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS OUT
OF THE SW...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO MORE OF A LLWS
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAVE HOISTED NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
(POSSIBLY LONGER)...AS A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NRN LOWER BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...AND LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN UPPER. VERY GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOP
IN IT`S WAKE...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...AND IN
COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE STABILITY. THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 250120
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
920 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EASTERN
UPPER AND THE TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER ARE THE ONLY SPOTS STILL DRY.
THIS PRECIP IS LIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN SO THIS EVENING. THE
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS REMNANTS FROM DEEP
CONVECTION ORIGINATING IN THE TOR WATCH BOX IN ILLINOIS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. THE LEAD WAVE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY ENTERING
EASTERN WI. FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
UPPER...SEEM TO TARGETED FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN SOME
AREAS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...THIS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN
FLOODING ISSUES.

THE ABOVE IS ALL IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...AND
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. WILL PUSH THE HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE HWO TO NEAR/NORTH OF M-68...AS OPPOSED TO M-32.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO VFR/IFR TONIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

BAND OF -RA LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH...AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE. THOUGH TVC/MBL WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS 1ST THIS
EVENING...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT PLN/APN OVERNIGHT.
THOSE SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES...WHILE TVC/MBL STAY
LARGELY MVFR. PLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THRU MONDAY...WHILE OTHER
SITES IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

SE TO SSW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...STRONGEST MONDAY LATE MORNING
THRU THE AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT). LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 250120
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
920 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN IS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH...EASTERN
UPPER AND THE TIP OF NORTHERN LOWER ARE THE ONLY SPOTS STILL DRY.
THIS PRECIP IS LIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN SO THIS EVENING. THE
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS REMNANTS FROM DEEP
CONVECTION ORIGINATING IN THE TOR WATCH BOX IN ILLINOIS PUSH INTO
THE REGION. THE LEAD WAVE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY ENTERING
EASTERN WI. FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
UPPER...SEEM TO TARGETED FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN SOME
AREAS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...THIS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN
FLOODING ISSUES.

THE ABOVE IS ALL IN LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST...AND
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINOR. WILL PUSH THE HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE HWO TO NEAR/NORTH OF M-68...AS OPPOSED TO M-32.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO VFR/IFR TONIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

BAND OF -RA LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH...AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE. THOUGH TVC/MBL WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS 1ST THIS
EVENING...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT PLN/APN OVERNIGHT.
THOSE SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES...WHILE TVC/MBL STAY
LARGELY MVFR. PLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THRU MONDAY...WHILE OTHER
SITES IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

SE TO SSW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...STRONGEST MONDAY LATE MORNING
THRU THE AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT). LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 242335
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO VFR/IFR TONIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

BAND OF -RA LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH...AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE. THOUGH TVC/MBL WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS 1ST THIS
EVENING...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT PLN/APN OVERNIGHT.
THOSE SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES...WHILE TVC/MBL STAY
LARGELY MVFR. PLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THRU MONDAY...WHILE OTHER
SITES IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

SE TO SSW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...STRONGEST MONDAY LATE MORNING
THRU THE AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT). LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 242335
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO VFR/IFR TONIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

BAND OF -RA LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH...AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE. THOUGH TVC/MBL WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS 1ST THIS
EVENING...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT PLN/APN OVERNIGHT.
THOSE SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES...WHILE TVC/MBL STAY
LARGELY MVFR. PLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THRU MONDAY...WHILE OTHER
SITES IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

SE TO SSW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...STRONGEST MONDAY LATE MORNING
THRU THE AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT). LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 242335
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO VFR/IFR TONIGHT. LLWS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

BAND OF -RA LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH...AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE. THOUGH TVC/MBL WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS 1ST THIS
EVENING...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT PLN/APN OVERNIGHT.
THOSE SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES...WHILE TVC/MBL STAY
LARGELY MVFR. PLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THRU MONDAY...WHILE OTHER
SITES IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY.

SE TO SSW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST...STRONGEST MONDAY LATE MORNING
THRU THE AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT). LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 242005
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER
20Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 242005
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32 TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WITH 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
IOWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO TAP OF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT (REFLECTED IN THETA-E RIDGING).
THIS ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WHICH AS THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT POINTED OUT IS OVER DOUBLE THE NORMAL SET THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH TEAM UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING
SURFACE WARM FRONT (NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY)...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET (850 MB WINDS OF UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS OR SO)
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I310K). THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE
TO BRING A SWATH OF LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL (0.50 TO 1 INCH) TO FAR
NORTHERN LOWER AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINFALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECT NEWD FROM
THE TROUGH AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST /ONGOING/ SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF
TOMORROW /MEMORIAL DAY/...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVING BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MEMORIAL DAY...INITIAL /AFOREMENTIONED/ SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT
REGION MEMORIAL DAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS WI...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NRN MI DURING THE DAY. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 1.6 INCHES/...AND A DISCRETE
POCKET OF ORGANIZED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE (PERHAPS END?) ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST S/SW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BEHIND WARM FRONT...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES PER KG
CAPE/...AND MEAGER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH AND 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN IN THE WHILE. WITH MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH WELL TO OUR
WEST...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...WILL
TENTATIVELY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT - SAVE FOR A FEW
RENEGADE SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE U.P.. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S /ERN UPPER/ TO THE 60S
/NRN LOWER/.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY...
AS PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY REGION WITH A MILDER AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT FROM CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DURING THE DAY...AND MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MS VALLEY 12Z TUE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. SURFACE
WAVE LIFTS NE INTO WI BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND OVERALL SYSTEM
EVOLUTION LOOKS AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING REGION
TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO SPREAD NE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S /NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY/ WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY HANG BACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY...
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME WARMING...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS /HAVE TENTATIVELY
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST/. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP-FREE AND RATHER WARM CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FOLLOWING THURSDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH IT BEING RATHER DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME FRAME.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO
BE TIED TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...SOMEWHERE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF. A BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE COOLING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM SHOULD BE ALLOWED FOR THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER
20Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 241745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF INCOMING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
INITIALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SHOULD REACH THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-72. THIS IS
ALL COVERED WELL IN FORECAST SO REALLY ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...DESPITE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NICELY REBOUNDED THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM. BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER
20Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 241745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF INCOMING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
INITIALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SHOULD REACH THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-72. THIS IS
ALL COVERED WELL IN FORECAST SO REALLY ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...DESPITE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NICELY REBOUNDED THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM. BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER
20Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 241745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF INCOMING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
INITIALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SHOULD REACH THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-72. THIS IS
ALL COVERED WELL IN FORECAST SO REALLY ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...DESPITE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NICELY REBOUNDED THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM. BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER
20Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 241745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF INCOMING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
INITIALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SHOULD REACH THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-72. THIS IS
ALL COVERED WELL IN FORECAST SO REALLY ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...DESPITE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NICELY REBOUNDED THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM. BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER
20Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 241527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF INCOMING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
INITIALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SHOULD REACH THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-72. THIS IS
ALL COVERED WELL IN FORECAST SO REALLY ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...DESPITE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NICELY REBOUNDED THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM. BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER 19Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN
AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 241527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF INCOMING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE
INITIALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SHOULD REACH THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE
PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT M-72. THIS IS
ALL COVERED WELL IN FORECAST SO REALLY ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES REQUIRED. MEANWHILE...DESPITE ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE NICELY REBOUNDED THROUGH THE 60S INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM. BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER 19Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN
AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 241042
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
642 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM.  BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER 19Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN
AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 241042
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
642 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM.  BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN TO START AT MBL/TVC AFTER 19Z...THEN SPREADING TO PLN/APN
AFTER 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFT IN LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER RAIN/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 240830
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM.  BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 240830
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...WARM AGAIN BUT TRENDING WETTER AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT (THOUGH
MUCH NEEDED) ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 05Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1029MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.  MOISTURE IS RETURNING SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS...GOES SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS
VALUES ABOVE 20MM SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN (00Z APX SOUNDING WAS STILL QUITE DRY WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.32 IN/8MM.  BROKEN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE
PRECIPITATION SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...SOME MID CLOUDS WERE SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.25
INCH THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL LIE ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN PORTIONS ILLINOIS/INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE
IN THE DAY.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

TODAY...IMPACT OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING...WITH A TOP-DOWN SATURATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORCING (ISENTROPIC ASCENT/QG FORCING/UPPER DIVERGENCE).  THIS
SHOULD ALSO BE THE IMPETUS TO GET PRECIPITATION STARTED ACROSS
PROBABLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING)...PROBABLY UP TO A CVX-IKW LINE BY EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT AND UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGES ABOVE
1.50 INCHES (OVER 250 PERCENT NORMAL) WITH A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET FOCUSING ON MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF
THIS JET AND RESULTANT INFLOW POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
120KT JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  SO FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER
TO SUGGEST A NICE RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH 1+
INCH QPF POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE FORCING).
WILL HAVE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN TONIGHT`S FORECAST
FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-72.  ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
THING MONDAY MORNING...THEN PERHAPS AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THAT THREAT RELEGATED
TO AREAS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THINGS STARTING TO COME A BIT MORE INTO FOCUS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS DISCUSSED AT
LENGTH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A FAVORABLE ONE FOR US TO PICK OF SOME RAIN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT IS
EJECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
SETUP WILL DRIVE A SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THAT SAME TIME...WITH AN ATTACHED WARM
FRONT BEING PUNTED NORTHWARD AS WELL INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
MOISTURE IS NOT AN ISSUE WHATSOEVER AS THE GULF OPENS WIDE UP
(REFERENCE ONGOING SOUTHERN PLAINS FLOODING ISSUES)...WITH PWAT
VALUES EASILY CRUISING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES UP THIS WAY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
JET AIDED RAINFALL MARCHING NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE AFTER 12Z MONDAY FROM ABOUT M-68 ON NORTHWARD IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND A STALLING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS THE COLD LAKE WATERS. THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO
THERE AS MUCAPE VALUES PEAK AROUND 400 J/KG THOUGH THE LIMITING
FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE MEAGER (AT BEST) LAPSE RATES. STILL...WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE MAY!)...SOME MUCH-NEEDED HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME SPOTS (HOPEFULLY) PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH OR MAYBE EVEN TWO.

THINGS REMAIN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING OVERTAKES THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
OUR DRIVING SHORTWAVE. BY THIS POINT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
HAVE RECOVERED WELL FOR ALL AREAS...HELPED ALONG BY EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S. THE
PROBLEM IS A LACK OF ANY BIG FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH STRONGER FLOW
PREVENTING ANY BIG TURNING OF WINDS ONSHORE FROM THE LAKES...AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/CAPPING NEAR 700MB PUTTING THE KIBOSH OF ANY
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GET A STRONG FEELING MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z
WILL BE JUST PLAIN DRY...WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR A QUICK
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DRY AND SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS AS WE HAVE A
CHANGE TO REALLY MIX DEEPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWARD-RETREATING
WARM FRONT. FORECAST RAOBS ARE IMPRESSIVE...SUGGESTING A QUICK MIX
TO AROUND 775MB TAPPING INTO INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY GO NUTS IF WE CAN MIX THAT
DEEP...SO CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE COULD BE
RAMIFICATIONS FOR MARINE INTERESTS GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKING DRY AND JUST PLAIN WARM AND WINDY WITH
TEMPS STUCK IN THE 60S AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CONFIDENCE THEN TAKES A
BIT OF A DIVE BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VARIANCES AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING (OR EVEN EXISTENCE) OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IS APPEARS THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END UP DRY AS WE CONTINUE TO SIT
IN THE DRY SLOT ALOFT WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH HINTS OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. CERTAINLY WORTH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BUT A LOW ONE AT BEST CURRENTLY. ONE THING
IS MUCH MORE CERTAINLY - TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WELL INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A RATHER TYPICAL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF MAY
AND LOOK FORWARD TO JUNE...WITH A FLATTENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 COMPRISED OF WEAK WESTERN TROUGHING SPITTING OUT THE
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...TRYING TO TIME ANY RAIN CHANCES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC AT
BEST AND THIS ONE IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MANY DIFFERENT POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...THAT CHANCE LOOKS BEST
TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE PRECEDING PERIOD (LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT) DOMINATED BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THAT REGIME...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NIGHTS TO BE COOLER THAN A
CONSENSUS BLEND WOULD SUGGEST...BEFORE MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RATCHET UPWARD INTO LATE WEEK VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE
PARTICULARLY ON LAKE HURON. WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE
ON LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 240146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
946 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LAKES
REGION...FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS IN
MOST PLACES HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND
ALTOCU IS SEEN OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN CLOUD EROSION. ANOTHER AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUD IS
ADVANCING TOWARD EASTERN WI AND ADJOINING UPPER MI. SOME EROSION
IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS THIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. BUT OVERALL AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS STILL EXPECTED IN WESTERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE ALREADY FALLING RAPIDLY...MOST LOCALES ARE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. HAVE GENERALLY REDUCED MIN TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...LIFTS INTO SRN MI.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 240146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
946 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LAKES
REGION...FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS IN
MOST PLACES HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND
ALTOCU IS SEEN OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN CLOUD EROSION. ANOTHER AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUD IS
ADVANCING TOWARD EASTERN WI AND ADJOINING UPPER MI. SOME EROSION
IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS THIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. BUT OVERALL AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS STILL EXPECTED IN WESTERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE ALREADY FALLING RAPIDLY...MOST LOCALES ARE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. HAVE GENERALLY REDUCED MIN TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...LIFTS INTO SRN MI.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 240146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
946 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RIDGING CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LAKES
REGION...FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS IN
MOST PLACES HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND
ALTOCU IS SEEN OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN CLOUD EROSION. ANOTHER AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUD IS
ADVANCING TOWARD EASTERN WI AND ADJOINING UPPER MI. SOME EROSION
IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS THIS GRADUALLY WORKS EAST. BUT OVERALL AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS STILL EXPECTED IN WESTERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE ALREADY FALLING RAPIDLY...MOST LOCALES ARE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. HAVE GENERALLY REDUCED MIN TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...LIFTS INTO SRN MI.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 232310
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
710 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...LIFTS INTO SRN MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 232310
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
710 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...LIFTS INTO SRN MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 232310
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
710 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...LIFTS INTO SRN MI.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 232008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR WEATHER THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LOCALLY BRISK WSW WINDS /GUSTING
TO OVER 20 KTS/ WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS /8-12 KFT/ ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 232008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  FIRE DANGER INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...GUSTY
SW BREEZES...DRY AIR...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NW LOWER MI
/TVC-CAD-ACB/ BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON TRENDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI HAVE REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
DOWNSLOPE-AIDED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AT APN/OSC/PZQ.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
SETTING SUN AND SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NRN PARTS OF
CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME /OR
REMAIN/ MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENING OVER ERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER. UPPER CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPANDS NE AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING FROM 250 MB JET STREAK
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
AND WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES
/ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PAST FEW NIGHTS/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S
ERN UPPER AND AROUND 50 NRN LOWER EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WARM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS...

THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE TO A WARMER AND MUCH MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THIS FLOW. THEREFORE...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY WITH LOWERING VALUES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE LATER TUESDAY.
PERHAPS A FEW INSTABILITY/LAKE BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN ACTION. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WHILE
WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS TIME BUT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW. AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK
IN THE ACTION MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE LINGERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY RETURNING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NRN MI. AT
THE SFC...A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH SFC DEW PTS TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVR NRN MI.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES
ORGANIZE OVR THE PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ARND 0C
WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO 8C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR WEATHER THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LOCALLY BRISK WSW WINDS /GUSTING
TO OVER 20 KTS/ WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS /8-12 KFT/ ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY SW BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NRN LAKE HURON...AND AROUND
WHITEFISH BAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH LOCAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES MAY FORM. WINDS/WAVES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR WEATHER THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LOCALLY BRISK WSW WINDS /GUSTING
TO OVER 20 KTS/ WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS /8-12 KFT/ ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LMZ341-342- 344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR WEATHER THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LOCALLY BRISK WSW WINDS /GUSTING
TO OVER 20 KTS/ WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS /8-12 KFT/ ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LMZ341-342- 344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR WEATHER THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LOCALLY BRISK WSW WINDS /GUSTING
TO OVER 20 KTS/ WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS /8-12 KFT/ ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LMZ341-342- 344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR WEATHER THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LOCALLY BRISK WSW WINDS /GUSTING
TO OVER 20 KTS/ WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS /8-12 KFT/ ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LMZ341-342- 344.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231424
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1024 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT PLN/TVC THROUGH 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231424
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1024 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT PLN/TVC THROUGH 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231424
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1024 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT PLN/TVC THROUGH 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231424
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1024 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FOR EASTERN UPPER..WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT RED FLAG CONCERNS
FOR NORTHERN LOWER.

MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS ERN UPPER
/ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF WAA AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING OF UPPER JET/. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM WHITEFISH BAY TO NEAR THE SAULT. PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
NEAR FULL SUN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. IT/LL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NRN LOWER.

RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NE LOWER...ALONG AND
EAST OF I-75. PER FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...
AREAS N OF M-72 IN NE LOWER LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO OVERALL
CRITERIA - WITH GUSTIEST WINDS /GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT/...TEMPS
NEAR 75 /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING/...AND LOWEST DEW POINTS /FARTHEST
FROM RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/. WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANY
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WARNING /THOUGH NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT PLN/TVC THROUGH 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT PLN/TVC THROUGH 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT PLN/TVC THROUGH 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 231045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT PLN/TVC THROUGH 14Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 230813
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW (09Z-13Z) AT
PLN/TVC...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230813
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW (09Z-13Z) AT
PLN/TVC...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 230813
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SOME CLOUDS EASTERN UPPER/SUNNY NORTHERN LOWER AND WARMER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
BISECTED BY AN OLD COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO/INDIANA...THEN TURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND CENTRAL IOWA.  BAND
OF CIRRUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS VORTICITY AXIS SPREADING/
DEFORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  SKIES ACROSS UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE CLEAR
WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION PER 00Z APX SOUNDING
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.17 INCH).  WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  STRETCHED OUT LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TODAY...AND
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: HIGH FIRE DANGER AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY.

TODAY...SOUTHERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME (7.0-
7.5C/KM 700-500MB) WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A BROKEN
AREA OF AC/ACCAS ABOVE THE BRIDGE FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY ALONG
WITH SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY DECREASING DURING
LATE AFTERNOON.  AWAY FROM THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
SOME CIRRUS AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH UPPER
60S AND 70S ON TAP.  DEW POINTS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES
(20-30 MPH).  SO FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE THE MIX OF
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY/WINDS WILL PUSH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF M-72 WHERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST (WILL DROP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE TO BE REPLACED BY RED FLAG HEADLINES).

TONIGHT...AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE WILL
BRING AN END TO OUR RECENT STRING OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES (LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

WELL...JUST IN TIME FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE
COMES SOME SUMMER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN (THAT WILL MAKE SOME
OF YOU OUT THERE HAPPY - ME INCLUDED). THE CULPRIT IN THE QUICK
TURNAROUND FROM OUR RECENT CHILL IS QUITE THE MERIDIONAL UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY MONDAY...WITH EVER-DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IT
SHUNTING MUCH MORE TYPICAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LEADING THE CHARGE WILL BE THE APPROACH OF
BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MONDAY...AS THESE FEATURES ARE DYNAMICALLY MIXED NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST LEAD SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALONG THE INCOMING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH REGARD TO BOTH
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF NEEDED RAINS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH QUITE THE PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES)...WITH A NICE PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING ELEVATED FRONT. STILL A LITTLE
CURIOUS IF WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POP OFF A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS WE SEE THE FIRST ROUND OF BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE AREA VIA LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...
THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. THAT IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE AS WE OFTEN SEE MODEL DEW POINTS OVERDONE INITIALLY (BEFORE
ANY BIG RAINS) GIVEN OUR LACK OF MOISTURE LATELY AND TENDENCY FOR
BETTER MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SANDY SOILS AROUND HERE.
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE MAY RESIDE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOWER.

THAT ALL CHANGES OF COURSE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
FACTORS COMING INTO PLACE TO LIFT A BAND OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AS DISCUSSED IN RECENT DAYS...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD BE
BETTER FROM A THUNDER PERSPECTIVE...BUT OFTEN IN THESE STRONGER
THETA-E ADVECTION SCENARIOS...WE DO REALIZE SOME RUMBLES IN SPITE OF
THAT. NO SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ALL OF OUR MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALOFT (AND LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)...BUT
ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE
FOR A TIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
(MAYBE MORE THAN AN INCH?) SO SOME GOOD NEWS THERE. IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN GET
SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE STRAITS FOR PART (MUCH?) OF THE DAY.
AT THE MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
NORTHEAST LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WHICH NORTHWEST LOWER MAY
SEE A RATHER CLASSIC LAKE SHADOW IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. TEMPS DEFINITELY HEADING UPWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER BUT OF
COURSE COOLER NEAR WHERE THAT WARM FRONT STALLS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (LOOKING AT YOU STRAITS AREA AND EASTERN UPPER).

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT OFTEN IS. FROM
A SIMPLE PATTERN STANDPOINT...NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MILD AND MORE HUMID AIR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TRY
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. TIMING AND EVEN EXISTENCE OF EACH OF THOSE
IS TRICKY AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AS
OF LATE...FLATTENING THE OVERALL FLOW MUCH FASTER OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER THAN NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE ODD GIVEN
THAT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF THE DECAYING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE "PIPELINE" TO WORK IN THIS DIRECTION. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WON`T BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE GIVEN PERIOD...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO REMOVE A PRECIP MENTION EACH DAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS ANY WEAK WIGGLE IN THE FLOW WILL HAVE SOME
MODEST HEAT AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. OVERALL...LOOKING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW (09Z-13Z) AT
PLN/TVC...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DEFORMATION OF MESOSCALE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACCELERATE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS REGION WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES/STRAITS OF
MACKINAC.  OFFSHORE GUSTINESS MAY ALSO CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON WHITEFISH BAY/ST. MARY`S RIVER AND THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT ZONE ON LAKE HURON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-342-
     344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230531
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO MOVE OUT ACROSS LAKE HURON. CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION IS STARTING TO ENCROACH ON
MANISTEE...THOUGH THICKER CIRRUS IS STILL DOWN NEAR GRR/MKG.
NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW...BUT STILL NEED TO TWEAK CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE HIGHER IN SW SECTIONS.

TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50F...QUITE COOL FOR 9 PM AND
WITH THE WHOLE NIGHT AHEAD OF US. COULD STAND TO PERHAPS LOWER MIN
TEMPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN SOME AREAS...EASTERN UPPER IN
PARTICULAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ONE MORE FREEZE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WAS SPINNING OVER QUEBEC WHILE
RIDGING WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN...STOOD NRN
MICHIGAN...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
MOVING TOWARD US. THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY
WAS WELL SOUTH...AND A RUSH OF CRISP CANADIAN AIR WAS SETTLED IN
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME GUSTINESS OUT THERE BUT WINDS HAVE
BEEN DROPPING OFF TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
PRESSURE/WEAKER GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

RATHER UNEVENTFUL. UPPER CLOSED LOW SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING CAL. CLEAR SKIES AND
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. COULD
SEE MANY AREAS...IF NOT ALL...IN THE 30S BY LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT.
STILL MORE TIME TO COOL OFF INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS IN
A FREEZE...BUT A RETURN WSW/SW WIND DOES INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT
TO STALL OUT THE TEMPERATURE FALL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE AND MANISTEE COUNTIES. BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH LOW TO MID 30S THERE FOR THE NEED OF A FROST ADVISORY. INLAND
AREAS MAY VERY WELL SEE A HARDER FREEZE SITUATION. ALL OTHER
COUNTIES WILL BE MORE ENGULFED IN A FREEZING SCENARIO...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S. WILL THUS SHOOT OUT WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LONG WHILE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF PROTECTING FRUIT
CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...

PATTERN SHIFT STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND RIGHT INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND MUCH MILDER SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR (PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON). OVERALL A GLORIOUS START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS AT LEAST
A LITTLE OF THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD (PW/S RAMP UP TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5
INCHES SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY). THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME
LOOKS RATHER LOW.

GOOD MIXING SATURDAY EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S. HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT TRICKY DUE TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND AN INCREASING SHOWER THREAT POSSIBLY HOLDING DOWN TEMPS A
BIT...WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (LIKELY
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT SURFACE WARM FRONT). LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE ZONAL/BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME LOOK ARRIVING TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...PINPOINTING EXACT TIMING
AND/OR PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIP WOULD BE RATHER TOUGH...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE-TYPE POPS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD
KNOWING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF DRY TIME MIXED IN AS
WELL.

BY THE LOOK OF IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW (09Z-13Z) AT
PLN/TVC...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
AT LEAST APPROACH SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...AND EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THUS...WINDS ALOFT EASILY LEADING TO ADVISORIES
SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE TO THE WATER SFC. MAYBE SOME LOW END
ADVISORY GUSTS FUNNELING THROUGH THE STRAITS IN WSW FLOW...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE THEN TRANSITION INTO A WARMER AND WETTER
SCENARIO WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...MAINLY RAIN...AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-027>030-032>036-041-042.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230531
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO MOVE OUT ACROSS LAKE HURON. CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION IS STARTING TO ENCROACH ON
MANISTEE...THOUGH THICKER CIRRUS IS STILL DOWN NEAR GRR/MKG.
NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW...BUT STILL NEED TO TWEAK CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE HIGHER IN SW SECTIONS.

TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50F...QUITE COOL FOR 9 PM AND
WITH THE WHOLE NIGHT AHEAD OF US. COULD STAND TO PERHAPS LOWER MIN
TEMPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN SOME AREAS...EASTERN UPPER IN
PARTICULAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ONE MORE FREEZE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WAS SPINNING OVER QUEBEC WHILE
RIDGING WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN...STOOD NRN
MICHIGAN...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
MOVING TOWARD US. THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY
WAS WELL SOUTH...AND A RUSH OF CRISP CANADIAN AIR WAS SETTLED IN
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME GUSTINESS OUT THERE BUT WINDS HAVE
BEEN DROPPING OFF TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
PRESSURE/WEAKER GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

RATHER UNEVENTFUL. UPPER CLOSED LOW SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING CAL. CLEAR SKIES AND
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. COULD
SEE MANY AREAS...IF NOT ALL...IN THE 30S BY LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT.
STILL MORE TIME TO COOL OFF INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS IN
A FREEZE...BUT A RETURN WSW/SW WIND DOES INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT
TO STALL OUT THE TEMPERATURE FALL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE AND MANISTEE COUNTIES. BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH LOW TO MID 30S THERE FOR THE NEED OF A FROST ADVISORY. INLAND
AREAS MAY VERY WELL SEE A HARDER FREEZE SITUATION. ALL OTHER
COUNTIES WILL BE MORE ENGULFED IN A FREEZING SCENARIO...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S. WILL THUS SHOOT OUT WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LONG WHILE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF PROTECTING FRUIT
CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...

PATTERN SHIFT STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND RIGHT INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND MUCH MILDER SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR (PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON). OVERALL A GLORIOUS START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS AT LEAST
A LITTLE OF THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD (PW/S RAMP UP TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5
INCHES SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY). THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME
LOOKS RATHER LOW.

GOOD MIXING SATURDAY EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S. HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT TRICKY DUE TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND AN INCREASING SHOWER THREAT POSSIBLY HOLDING DOWN TEMPS A
BIT...WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (LIKELY
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT SURFACE WARM FRONT). LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE ZONAL/BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME LOOK ARRIVING TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...PINPOINTING EXACT TIMING
AND/OR PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIP WOULD BE RATHER TOUGH...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE-TYPE POPS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD
KNOWING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF DRY TIME MIXED IN AS
WELL.

BY THE LOOK OF IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW (09Z-13Z) AT
PLN/TVC...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
AT LEAST APPROACH SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...AND EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THUS...WINDS ALOFT EASILY LEADING TO ADVISORIES
SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE TO THE WATER SFC. MAYBE SOME LOW END
ADVISORY GUSTS FUNNELING THROUGH THE STRAITS IN WSW FLOW...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE THEN TRANSITION INTO A WARMER AND WETTER
SCENARIO WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...MAINLY RAIN...AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-027>030-032>036-041-042.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 230531
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO MOVE OUT ACROSS LAKE HURON. CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION IS STARTING TO ENCROACH ON
MANISTEE...THOUGH THICKER CIRRUS IS STILL DOWN NEAR GRR/MKG.
NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW...BUT STILL NEED TO TWEAK CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE HIGHER IN SW SECTIONS.

TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50F...QUITE COOL FOR 9 PM AND
WITH THE WHOLE NIGHT AHEAD OF US. COULD STAND TO PERHAPS LOWER MIN
TEMPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN SOME AREAS...EASTERN UPPER IN
PARTICULAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...ONE MORE FREEZE...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WAS SPINNING OVER QUEBEC WHILE
RIDGING WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN...STOOD NRN
MICHIGAN...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
MOVING TOWARD US. THE SFC COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY
WAS WELL SOUTH...AND A RUSH OF CRISP CANADIAN AIR WAS SETTLED IN
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME GUSTINESS OUT THERE BUT WINDS HAVE
BEEN DROPPING OFF TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
PRESSURE/WEAKER GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

RATHER UNEVENTFUL. UPPER CLOSED LOW SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING CAL. CLEAR SKIES AND
A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. COULD
SEE MANY AREAS...IF NOT ALL...IN THE 30S BY LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT.
STILL MORE TIME TO COOL OFF INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS IN
A FREEZE...BUT A RETURN WSW/SW WIND DOES INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT
TO STALL OUT THE TEMPERATURE FALL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR
LEELANAU/BENZIE AND MANISTEE COUNTIES. BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH LOW TO MID 30S THERE FOR THE NEED OF A FROST ADVISORY. INLAND
AREAS MAY VERY WELL SEE A HARDER FREEZE SITUATION. ALL OTHER
COUNTIES WILL BE MORE ENGULFED IN A FREEZING SCENARIO...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S. WILL THUS SHOOT OUT WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LONG WHILE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF PROTECTING FRUIT
CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...

PATTERN SHIFT STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND RIGHT INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND MUCH MILDER SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR (PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON). OVERALL A GLORIOUS START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS AT LEAST
A LITTLE OF THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD (PW/S RAMP UP TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5
INCHES SUNDAY AND UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES MONDAY). THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME
LOOKS RATHER LOW.

GOOD MIXING SATURDAY EXPECTED TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S. HIGHS SUNDAY A BIT TRICKY DUE TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND AN INCREASING SHOWER THREAT POSSIBLY HOLDING DOWN TEMPS A
BIT...WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (LIKELY
NORTH OF THE STALLED OUT SURFACE WARM FRONT). LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE ZONAL/BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME LOOK ARRIVING TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...PINPOINTING EXACT TIMING
AND/OR PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIP WOULD BE RATHER TOUGH...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE-TYPE POPS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD
KNOWING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF DRY TIME MIXED IN AS
WELL.

BY THE LOOK OF IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE
WARMEST DAY LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW (09Z-13Z) AT
PLN/TVC...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
AT LEAST APPROACH SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS DRIFT OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...AND EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THUS...WINDS ALOFT EASILY LEADING TO ADVISORIES
SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE TO THE WATER SFC. MAYBE SOME LOW END
ADVISORY GUSTS FUNNELING THROUGH THE STRAITS IN WSW FLOW...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM. WE THEN TRANSITION INTO A WARMER AND WETTER
SCENARIO WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...MAINLY RAIN...AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEARING A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>019-
     021>024-027>030-032>036-041-042.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...GILLEN
MARINE...SMD





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