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000
FXUS63 KAPX 232254
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
654 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PROMOTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THOSE OF LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
LATE INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  LOW TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS HAS PUSHED THE
WESTERLIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT HAS ALSO ALLOWED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME HINTS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN
TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN
OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA.  ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY
AND AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN
70-75 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE FOLDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  WILL TAKE SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THANKS TO LONGER NIGHTS AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST:  CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT...WITH PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...HELPING TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EASTWARD.  GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE PATTERN ENDS
UP SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN SOME OF THE CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  IN THE MEANTIME...ENJOY THE SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
OVERHEAD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BRIEF PERIODS OF GROUND FOG AND/OR
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT PLN...APN...AND MBL...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AS WINDS BECOME CALM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MG
MARINE...AS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 232254
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
654 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PROMOTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THOSE OF LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
LATE INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  LOW TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS HAS PUSHED THE
WESTERLIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT HAS ALSO ALLOWED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME HINTS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN
TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN
OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA.  ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY
AND AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN
70-75 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE FOLDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  WILL TAKE SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THANKS TO LONGER NIGHTS AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST:  CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT...WITH PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...HELPING TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EASTWARD.  GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE PATTERN ENDS
UP SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN SOME OF THE CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  IN THE MEANTIME...ENJOY THE SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
OVERHEAD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BRIEF PERIODS OF GROUND FOG AND/OR
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT PLN...APN...AND MBL...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AS WINDS BECOME CALM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MG
MARINE...AS








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PROMOTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THOSE OF LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
LATE INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  LOW TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS HAS PUSHED THE
WESTERLIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT HAS ALSO ALLOWED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME HINTS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN
TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN
OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA.  ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY
AND AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN
70-75 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE FOLDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  WILL TAKE SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THANKS TO LONGER NIGHTS AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST:  CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT...WITH PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...HELPING TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EASTWARD.  GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE PATTERN ENDS
UP SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN SOME OF THE CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  IN THE MEANTIME...ENJOY THE SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MAYBE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT PLN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...AS







000
FXUS63 KAPX 231951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PROMOTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THOSE OF LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
LATE INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  LOW TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS HAS PUSHED THE
WESTERLIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT HAS ALSO ALLOWED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME HINTS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN
TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN
OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA.  ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY
AND AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN
70-75 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE FOLDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  WILL TAKE SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THANKS TO LONGER NIGHTS AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST:  CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT...WITH PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...HELPING TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EASTWARD.  GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE PATTERN ENDS
UP SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN SOME OF THE CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  IN THE MEANTIME...ENJOY THE SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MAYBE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT PLN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...AS








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231817
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND...LOWER STRATUS IN ONTARIO...FLIRTING
WITH THE SAULT. THERE WAS ALSO SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WELL WEST...IN
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. SFC WINDS WERE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCALES
WERE STILL FEELING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...BUT ALSO SHIFTS EAST...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION...AND IT REALLY HAS
NO IMPACT...WILL BE THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
RELATIVE HIGHER MOISTURE STILL DRIFTING AROUND AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ONTARIO...IT WILL BE DRYING WITH TIME UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO REAL CONVINCED
OF ANY DECENT CU THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ONLY FROM A FCST SOUNDING
STANDPOINT...BUT ALSO BY THE INCOMING AIR MASS HAVING LITTLE TO NO
CUMULUS IN IT YESTERDAY. COULD SEE SOME MINIMAL CU TRYING TO COLLECT
IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT THE LONGER WE MIX TODAY...THE
MORE DRY AIR WE ENCOUNTER...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO SUNNY
JUST BEFORE SUNDOWN.

MIXING OUGHT TO GET SFC TD`S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHICH WILL BE
A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHERE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ABOUT AS GOOD AS YOU CAN EXPECT TO START THE FALL SEASON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGES SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE...WITH DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND EXPECTED TO STAY HERE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STABLE...QUIET...AND MILD PATTERN FOR SURE TO
TO BEGIN THE FALL SEASON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: NOT A LOT. MAINLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SIMPLY MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (AT
LEAST). CURRENT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WAVE PUSHES EAST...DAMPENING AS
IT DOES SO...AND LIKELY BRINGING NO MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MID/LATE WEEK. OTHERWISE...INGREDIENTS ALL
THERE FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. PERHAPS SOME CHANGES BEGIN
HEADING INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO ADMIT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A SLOW MOVING PATTERN.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MAYBE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT PLN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231817
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND...LOWER STRATUS IN ONTARIO...FLIRTING
WITH THE SAULT. THERE WAS ALSO SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WELL WEST...IN
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. SFC WINDS WERE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCALES
WERE STILL FEELING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...BUT ALSO SHIFTS EAST...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION...AND IT REALLY HAS
NO IMPACT...WILL BE THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
RELATIVE HIGHER MOISTURE STILL DRIFTING AROUND AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ONTARIO...IT WILL BE DRYING WITH TIME UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO REAL CONVINCED
OF ANY DECENT CU THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ONLY FROM A FCST SOUNDING
STANDPOINT...BUT ALSO BY THE INCOMING AIR MASS HAVING LITTLE TO NO
CUMULUS IN IT YESTERDAY. COULD SEE SOME MINIMAL CU TRYING TO COLLECT
IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT THE LONGER WE MIX TODAY...THE
MORE DRY AIR WE ENCOUNTER...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO SUNNY
JUST BEFORE SUNDOWN.

MIXING OUGHT TO GET SFC TD`S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHICH WILL BE
A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHERE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ABOUT AS GOOD AS YOU CAN EXPECT TO START THE FALL SEASON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGES SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE...WITH DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND EXPECTED TO STAY HERE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STABLE...QUIET...AND MILD PATTERN FOR SURE TO
TO BEGIN THE FALL SEASON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: NOT A LOT. MAINLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SIMPLY MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (AT
LEAST). CURRENT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WAVE PUSHES EAST...DAMPENING AS
IT DOES SO...AND LIKELY BRINGING NO MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MID/LATE WEEK. OTHERWISE...INGREDIENTS ALL
THERE FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. PERHAPS SOME CHANGES BEGIN
HEADING INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO ADMIT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A SLOW MOVING PATTERN.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MAYBE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT PLN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...AS
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 231049
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
649 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND...LOWER STRATUS IN ONTARIO...FLIRTING
WITH THE SAULT. THERE WAS ALSO SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WELL WEST...IN
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. SFC WINDS WERE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCALES
WERE STILL FEELING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...BUT ALSO SHIFTS EAST...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION...AND IT REALLY HAS
NO IMPACT...WILL BE THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
RELATIVE HIGHER MOISTURE STILL DRIFTING AROUND AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ONTARIO...IT WILL BE DRYING WITH TIME UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO REAL CONVINCED
OF ANY DECENT CU THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ONLY FROM A FCST SOUNDING
STANDPOINT...BUT ALSO BY THE INCOMING AIR MASS HAVING LITTLE TO NO
CUMULUS IN IT YESTERDAY. COULD SEE SOME MINIMAL CU TRYING TO COLLECT
IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT THE LONGER WE MIX TODAY...THE
MORE DRY AIR WE ENCOUNTER...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO SUNNY
JUST BEFORE SUNDOWN.

MIXING OUGHT TO GET SFC TD`S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHICH WILL BE
A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHERE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ABOUT AS GOOD AS YOU CAN EXPECT TO START THE FALL SEASON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGES SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE...WITH DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND EXPECTED TO STAY HERE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STABLE...QUIET...AND MILD PATTERN FOR SURE TO
TO BEGIN THE FALL SEASON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: NOT A LOT. MAINLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SIMPLY MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (AT
LEAST). CURRENT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WAVE PUSHES EAST...DAMPENING AS
IT DOES SO...AND LIKELY BRINGING NO MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MID/LATE WEEK. OTHERWISE...INGREDIENTS ALL
THERE FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. PERHAPS SOME CHANGES BEGIN
HEADING INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO ADMIT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A SLOW MOVING PATTERN.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO GROUND FOG/STRATUS UNTIL QUICKLY
BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE. THEN...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN
LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES. MAYBE SOME MORE BRIEF PERIODS OF GROUND
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 231049
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
649 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND...LOWER STRATUS IN ONTARIO...FLIRTING
WITH THE SAULT. THERE WAS ALSO SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WELL WEST...IN
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. SFC WINDS WERE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCALES
WERE STILL FEELING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...BUT ALSO SHIFTS EAST...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION...AND IT REALLY HAS
NO IMPACT...WILL BE THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
RELATIVE HIGHER MOISTURE STILL DRIFTING AROUND AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ONTARIO...IT WILL BE DRYING WITH TIME UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO REAL CONVINCED
OF ANY DECENT CU THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ONLY FROM A FCST SOUNDING
STANDPOINT...BUT ALSO BY THE INCOMING AIR MASS HAVING LITTLE TO NO
CUMULUS IN IT YESTERDAY. COULD SEE SOME MINIMAL CU TRYING TO COLLECT
IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT THE LONGER WE MIX TODAY...THE
MORE DRY AIR WE ENCOUNTER...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO SUNNY
JUST BEFORE SUNDOWN.

MIXING OUGHT TO GET SFC TD`S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHICH WILL BE
A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHERE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ABOUT AS GOOD AS YOU CAN EXPECT TO START THE FALL SEASON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGES SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE...WITH DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND EXPECTED TO STAY HERE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STABLE...QUIET...AND MILD PATTERN FOR SURE TO
TO BEGIN THE FALL SEASON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: NOT A LOT. MAINLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SIMPLY MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (AT
LEAST). CURRENT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WAVE PUSHES EAST...DAMPENING AS
IT DOES SO...AND LIKELY BRINGING NO MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MID/LATE WEEK. OTHERWISE...INGREDIENTS ALL
THERE FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. PERHAPS SOME CHANGES BEGIN
HEADING INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO ADMIT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A SLOW MOVING PATTERN.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO GROUND FOG/STRATUS UNTIL QUICKLY
BURNING OFF WITH SUNRISE. THEN...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NRN
LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES. MAYBE SOME MORE BRIEF PERIODS OF GROUND
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 230615
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND...LOWER STRATUS IN ONTARIO...FLIRTING
WITH THE SAULT. THERE WAS ALSO SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WELL WEST...IN
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. SFC WINDS WERE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCALES
WERE STILL FEELING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...BUT ALSO SHIFTS EAST...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION...AND IT REALLY HAS
NO IMPACT...WILL BE THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
RELATIVE HIGHER MOISTURE STILL DRIFTING AROUND AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ONTARIO...IT WILL BE DRYING WITH TIME UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO REAL CONVINCED
OF ANY DECENT CU THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ONLY FROM A FCST SOUNDING
STANDPOINT...BUT ALSO BY THE INCOMING AIR MASS HAVING LITTLE TO NO
CUMULUS IN IT YESTERDAY. COULD SEE SOME MINIMAL CU TRYING TO COLLECT
IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT THE LONGER WE MIX TODAY...THE
MORE DRY AIR WE ENCOUNTER...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO SUNNY
JUST BEFORE SUNDOWN.

MIXING OUGHT TO GET SFC TD`S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHICH WILL BE
A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHERE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ABOUT AS GOOD AS YOU CAN EXPECT TO START THE FALL SEASON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGES SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE...WITH DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND EXPECTED TO STAY HERE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STABLE...QUIET...AND MILD PATTERN FOR SURE TO
TO BEGIN THE FALL SEASON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: NOT A LOT. MAINLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SIMPLY MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (AT
LEAST). CURRENT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WAVE PUSHES EAST...DAMPENING AS
IT DOES SO...AND LIKELY BRINGING NO MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MID/LATE WEEK. OTHERWISE...INGREDIENTS ALL
THERE FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. PERHAPS SOME CHANGES BEGIN
HEADING INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO ADMIT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A SLOW MOVING PATTERN.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 230615
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALOFT EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND...LOWER STRATUS IN ONTARIO...FLIRTING
WITH THE SAULT. THERE WAS ALSO SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WELL WEST...IN
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. SFC WINDS WERE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING PROTECTED AREAS...TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE DROPPING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE...THE MORE EXPOSED LOCALES
WERE STILL FEELING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION TODAY...BUT ALSO SHIFTS EAST...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION...AND IT REALLY HAS
NO IMPACT...WILL BE THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
RELATIVE HIGHER MOISTURE STILL DRIFTING AROUND AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ONTARIO...IT WILL BE DRYING WITH TIME UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO REAL CONVINCED
OF ANY DECENT CU THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ONLY FROM A FCST SOUNDING
STANDPOINT...BUT ALSO BY THE INCOMING AIR MASS HAVING LITTLE TO NO
CUMULUS IN IT YESTERDAY. COULD SEE SOME MINIMAL CU TRYING TO COLLECT
IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT THE LONGER WE MIX TODAY...THE
MORE DRY AIR WE ENCOUNTER...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO SUNNY
JUST BEFORE SUNDOWN.

MIXING OUGHT TO GET SFC TD`S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHICH WILL BE
A GOOD BENCHMARK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT LOWEST LYING AREAS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHERE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ABOUT AS GOOD AS YOU CAN EXPECT TO START THE FALL SEASON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGES SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE...WITH DEEP
LAYER RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD...AND EXPECTED TO STAY HERE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STABLE...QUIET...AND MILD PATTERN FOR SURE TO
TO BEGIN THE FALL SEASON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: NOT A LOT. MAINLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SIMPLY MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (AT
LEAST). CURRENT INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WAVE PUSHES EAST...DAMPENING AS
IT DOES SO...AND LIKELY BRINGING NO MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MID/LATE WEEK. OTHERWISE...INGREDIENTS ALL
THERE FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. PERHAPS SOME CHANGES BEGIN
HEADING INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO ADMIT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A SLOW MOVING PATTERN.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY RAIN CHANCES JUST YET...WITH PLENTY OF
TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD







000
FXUS63 KAPX 230345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1027MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA/
MISSOURI BORDER AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LYING BETWEEN A POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND A
SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MICHIGAN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C APPROACHING LAKE WINNIPEG.  POCKET OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AROUND EAST SIDE OF THE MIDWEST
SURFACE HIGH...APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.30 INCH.  THIN PATCH OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS HAS
RENDERED SKIES OVERCAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO
THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST CLIPPING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST.
MARY`S RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LOW
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY CLIP FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL THOUGH AT LEAST
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SLACK OFF
TONIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS UNTIL LATE).  CURRENT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S)...SO SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG IF WINDS DROP
OFF.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A HINT OF
RESIDUAL H8-H7 MOISTURE TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.  WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE DWPTS.  A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES.  IT MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AMBIENT AIR MASS...NO PRECIPITATION.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FOLD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER /HIGHS LOWER-MID 70S/.  NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
/40S TO LOWER 50S/ BUT NO THREAT OF ANY FROST.

NEXT WEEK:  WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING WIDESPREAD/.  LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALSO TRANSITION OUR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS /AT LEAST BRIEFLY/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FROM
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTH ON LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE AS WELL AS ON
WHITEFISH BAY.  SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 230345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1027MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA/
MISSOURI BORDER AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LYING BETWEEN A POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND A
SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MICHIGAN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C APPROACHING LAKE WINNIPEG.  POCKET OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AROUND EAST SIDE OF THE MIDWEST
SURFACE HIGH...APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.30 INCH.  THIN PATCH OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS HAS
RENDERED SKIES OVERCAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO
THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST CLIPPING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST.
MARY`S RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LOW
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY CLIP FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL THOUGH AT LEAST
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SLACK OFF
TONIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS UNTIL LATE).  CURRENT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S)...SO SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG IF WINDS DROP
OFF.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A HINT OF
RESIDUAL H8-H7 MOISTURE TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.  WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE DWPTS.  A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES.  IT MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AMBIENT AIR MASS...NO PRECIPITATION.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FOLD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER /HIGHS LOWER-MID 70S/.  NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
/40S TO LOWER 50S/ BUT NO THREAT OF ANY FROST.

NEXT WEEK:  WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING WIDESPREAD/.  LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALSO TRANSITION OUR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS /AT LEAST BRIEFLY/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FROM
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTH ON LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE AS WELL AS ON
WHITEFISH BAY.  SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 222300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1027MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA/
MISSOURI BORDER AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LYING BETWEEN A POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND A
SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MICHIGAN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C APPROACHING LAKE WINNIPEG.  POCKET OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AROUND EAST SIDE OF THE MIDWEST
SURFACE HIGH...APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.30 INCH.  THIN PATCH OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS HAS
RENDERED SKIES OVERCAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO
THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST CLIPPING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST.
MARY`S RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LOW
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY CLIP FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL THOUGH AT LEAST
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SLACK OFF
TONIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS UNTIL LATE).  CURRENT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S)...SO SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG IF WINDS DROP
OFF.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A HINT OF
RESIDUAL H8-H7 MOISTURE TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.  WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE DWPTS.  A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES.  IT MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AMBIENT AIR MASS...NO PRECIPITATION.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FOLD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER /HIGHS LOWER-MID 70S/.  NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
/40S TO LOWER 50S/ BUT NO THREAT OF ANY FROST.

NEXT WEEK:  WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING WIDESPREAD/.  LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALSO TRANSITION OUR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS /AT LEAST BRIEFLY/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FROM
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTH ON LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE AS WELL AS ON
WHITEFISH BAY.  SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 222300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1027MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA/
MISSOURI BORDER AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LYING BETWEEN A POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND A
SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MICHIGAN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C APPROACHING LAKE WINNIPEG.  POCKET OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AROUND EAST SIDE OF THE MIDWEST
SURFACE HIGH...APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.30 INCH.  THIN PATCH OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS HAS
RENDERED SKIES OVERCAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO
THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST CLIPPING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST.
MARY`S RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LOW
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY CLIP FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL THOUGH AT LEAST
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SLACK OFF
TONIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS UNTIL LATE).  CURRENT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S)...SO SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG IF WINDS DROP
OFF.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A HINT OF
RESIDUAL H8-H7 MOISTURE TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.  WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE DWPTS.  A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES.  IT MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AMBIENT AIR MASS...NO PRECIPITATION.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FOLD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER /HIGHS LOWER-MID 70S/.  NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
/40S TO LOWER 50S/ BUT NO THREAT OF ANY FROST.

NEXT WEEK:  WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING WIDESPREAD/.  LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALSO TRANSITION OUR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS /AT LEAST BRIEFLY/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
W/SW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FROM
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTH ON LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE AS WELL AS ON
WHITEFISH BAY.  SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 221914
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1027MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA/
MISSOURI BORDER AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LYING BETWEEN A POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND A
SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MICHIGAN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C APPROACHING LAKE WINNIPEG.  POCKET OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AROUND EAST SIDE OF THE MIDWEST
SURFACE HIGH...APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.30 INCH.  THIN PATCH OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS HAS
RENDERED SKIES OVERCAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO
THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST CLIPPING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST.
MARY`S RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LOW
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY CLIP FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL THOUGH AT LEAST
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SLACK OFF
TONIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS UNTIL LATE).  CURRENT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S)...SO SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG IF WINDS DROP
OFF.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A HINT OF
RESIDUAL H8-H7 MOISTURE TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.  WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE DWPTS.  A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES.  IT MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AMBIENT AIR MASS...NO PRECIPITATION.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FOLD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER /HIGHS LOWER-MID 70S/.  NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
/40S TO LOWER 50S/ BUT NO THREAT OF ANY FROST.

NEXT WEEK:  WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING WIDESPREAD/.  LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALSO TRANSITION OUR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS /AT LEAST BRIEFLY/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY AT PLN WHERE WINDS MOST LIKELY
TO DECOUPLE AND GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FROM
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTH ON LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE AS WELL AS ON
WHITEFISH BAY.  SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
MARINE...JPB






000
FXUS63 KAPX 221914
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1027MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE IOWA/
MISSOURI BORDER AT EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN THAT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LYING BETWEEN A POSITIVE
TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND A
SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
MICHIGAN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C APPROACHING LAKE WINNIPEG.  POCKET OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AROUND EAST SIDE OF THE MIDWEST
SURFACE HIGH...APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR
BELOW 0.30 INCH.  THIN PATCH OF HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS HAS
RENDERED SKIES OVERCAST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT HAS BEEN THINNING WITH TIME
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  LAYERED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO
THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR JUST CLIPPING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ST.
MARY`S RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
WARMER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LOW
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY CLIP FAR
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL THOUGH AT LEAST
A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.  SO SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
UPPER/TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE WINDS SLACK OFF
TONIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PERHAPS UNTIL LATE).  CURRENT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S)...SO SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG IF WINDS DROP
OFF.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A HINT OF
RESIDUAL H8-H7 MOISTURE TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.  WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC DWPTS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE DWPTS.  A
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES.  IT MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH A DRY AMBIENT AIR MASS...NO PRECIPITATION.
THERMAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FOLD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER /HIGHS LOWER-MID 70S/.  NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
/40S TO LOWER 50S/ BUT NO THREAT OF ANY FROST.

NEXT WEEK:  WEAK FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING WIDESPREAD/.  LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALSO TRANSITION OUR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS /AT LEAST BRIEFLY/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY AT PLN WHERE WINDS MOST LIKELY
TO DECOUPLE AND GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FROM
GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTH ON LAKE MICHIGAN.  WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE AS WELL AS ON
WHITEFISH BAY.  SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JK
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 221729
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...GREETINGS TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL (10:29 PM TONIGHT
OFFICIALLY)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SO IT BEGINS...THE MUCH
TALKED ABOUT (AND LIKELY WELCOMED) PERIOD OF QUIET AND INCREASINGLY
MILD WEATHER. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY TRENDING TO ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUCH...WITH YESTERDAY`S STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SAFELY TO THE EAST.
PARENT TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY MOVING OUT AS ELONGATED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING BEGINS ITS ADVANCE EAST...WITH NOTED MID AND UPPER HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH FRONTSIDE CAA/ASSOCIATED LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW STOUT H8 INVERSION STILL LEADING TO QUITE
A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME TODAY. NO DOUBT A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR OFF THE TABLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: FOR A CHANGE...MOSTLY
TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT COLD ANOMALIES PASSING
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE BEGINNING STAGES OF WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW SOUTH PROGRESS ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN SAID COLD FRONT AND
OHIO VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE HIGH. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAY START THE MORNING A TOUCH ON THE CLOUDY SIDE
FOR SOME. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MIXING TO EVENTUALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THE OVERCAST. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH UPSTREAM ONTARIO CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CLIPPING NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH DEPARTING TROUGHING. WILL
ACCOUNT SOME FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...TRENDING A TOUCH MORE
CLOUDY EACH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEPARTURE OF COLDEST ANOMALIES AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH (MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT WINDS) AND
CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A FALL OFF WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...WARM AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...

500MB RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL DO MORE DAMAGE TO THE INCOMING TROF THAN THE REVERSE.
OVERALL...THERE ARE FEW WX CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUE MORNING...WITH A 2ND WEAKER HIGH NEAR
THE WEST SHORE OF JAMES BAY. THE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE NE STATES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LAKES REGION EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES...WITH NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-5C RANGE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER.
HOWEVER...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OBLITERATE THIS WEAK MOIST PLUME...
LEAVING A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR HEADS. A TOUCH OF CLOUD COVER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY 1-2C ON WED OVER TUE...AND THERE ARE
FEWER CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER ON WED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER YET...NEAR 70 TO
THE MID 70S. IN BETWEEN...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE
INTERIOR...NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...STEADY AS SHE GOES. THE INCOMING UPPER TROF
ON WED NIGHT/THU WILL BE BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
LAKES REGION. THE TROF WILL LEAVE A PIECE OF ITSELF CUT OFF OVER
IOWA...WITH A MINORED-OUT REMNANT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CONTROL AT LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO
THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... APPEAR VERY
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT/S ABOUT AS EXCITING AS IT GETS...AS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY A 500MB
HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY AT PLN WHERE WINDS MOST LIKELY
TO DECOUPLE AND GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK AROUND MORE
WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 221729
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...GREETINGS TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL (10:29 PM TONIGHT
OFFICIALLY)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SO IT BEGINS...THE MUCH
TALKED ABOUT (AND LIKELY WELCOMED) PERIOD OF QUIET AND INCREASINGLY
MILD WEATHER. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY TRENDING TO ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUCH...WITH YESTERDAY`S STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SAFELY TO THE EAST.
PARENT TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY MOVING OUT AS ELONGATED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING BEGINS ITS ADVANCE EAST...WITH NOTED MID AND UPPER HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH FRONTSIDE CAA/ASSOCIATED LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW STOUT H8 INVERSION STILL LEADING TO QUITE
A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME TODAY. NO DOUBT A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR OFF THE TABLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: FOR A CHANGE...MOSTLY
TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT COLD ANOMALIES PASSING
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE BEGINNING STAGES OF WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW SOUTH PROGRESS ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN SAID COLD FRONT AND
OHIO VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE HIGH. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAY START THE MORNING A TOUCH ON THE CLOUDY SIDE
FOR SOME. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MIXING TO EVENTUALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THE OVERCAST. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH UPSTREAM ONTARIO CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CLIPPING NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH DEPARTING TROUGHING. WILL
ACCOUNT SOME FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...TRENDING A TOUCH MORE
CLOUDY EACH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEPARTURE OF COLDEST ANOMALIES AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH (MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT WINDS) AND
CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A FALL OFF WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...WARM AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...

500MB RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL DO MORE DAMAGE TO THE INCOMING TROF THAN THE REVERSE.
OVERALL...THERE ARE FEW WX CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUE MORNING...WITH A 2ND WEAKER HIGH NEAR
THE WEST SHORE OF JAMES BAY. THE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE NE STATES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LAKES REGION EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES...WITH NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-5C RANGE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER.
HOWEVER...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OBLITERATE THIS WEAK MOIST PLUME...
LEAVING A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR HEADS. A TOUCH OF CLOUD COVER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY 1-2C ON WED OVER TUE...AND THERE ARE
FEWER CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER ON WED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER YET...NEAR 70 TO
THE MID 70S. IN BETWEEN...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE
INTERIOR...NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...STEADY AS SHE GOES. THE INCOMING UPPER TROF
ON WED NIGHT/THU WILL BE BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
LAKES REGION. THE TROF WILL LEAVE A PIECE OF ITSELF CUT OFF OVER
IOWA...WITH A MINORED-OUT REMNANT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CONTROL AT LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO
THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... APPEAR VERY
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT/S ABOUT AS EXCITING AS IT GETS...AS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY A 500MB
HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY AT PLN WHERE WINDS MOST LIKELY
TO DECOUPLE AND GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK AROUND MORE
WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 221106
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
706 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...GREETINGS TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL (10:29 PM TONIGHT
OFFICIALLY)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SO IT BEGINS...THE MUCH
TALKED ABOUT (AND LIKELY WELCOMED) PERIOD OF QUIET AND INCREASINGLY
MILD WEATHER. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY TRENDING TO ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUCH...WITH YESTERDAY`S STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SAFELY TO THE EAST.
PARENT TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY MOVING OUT AS ELONGATED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING BEGINS ITS ADVANCE EAST...WITH NOTED MID AND UPPER HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH FRONTSIDE CAA/ASSOCIATED LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW STOUT H8 INVERSION STILL LEADING TO QUITE
A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME TODAY. NO DOUBT A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR OFF THE TABLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: FOR A CHANGE...MOSTLY
TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT COLD ANOMALIES PASSING
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE BEGINNING STAGES OF WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW SOUTH PROGRESS ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN SAID COLD FRONT AND
OHIO VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE HIGH. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAY START THE MORNING A TOUCH ON THE CLOUDY SIDE
FOR SOME. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MIXING TO EVENTUALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THE OVERCAST. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH UPSTREAM ONTARIO CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CLIPPING NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH DEPARTING TROUGHING. WILL
ACCOUNT SOME FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...TRENDING A TOUCH MORE
CLOUDY EACH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEPARTURE OF COLDEST ANOMALIES AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH (MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT WINDS) AND
CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A FALL OFF WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...WARM AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...

500MB RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL DO MORE DAMAGE TO THE INCOMING TROF THAN THE REVERSE.
OVERALL...THERE ARE FEW WX CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUE MORNING...WITH A 2ND WEAKER HIGH NEAR
THE WEST SHORE OF JAMES BAY. THE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE NE STATES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LAKES REGION EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES...WITH NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-5C RANGE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER.
HOWEVER...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OBLITERATE THIS WEAK MOIST PLUME...
LEAVING A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR HEADS. A TOUCH OF CLOUD COVER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY 1-2C ON WED OVER TUE...AND THERE ARE
FEWER CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER ON WED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER YET...NEAR 70 TO
THE MID 70S. IN BETWEEN...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE
INTERIOR...NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...STEADY AS SHE GOES. THE INCOMING UPPER TROF
ON WED NIGHT/THU WILL BE BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
LAKES REGION. THE TROF WILL LEAVE A PIECE OF ITSELF CUT OFF OVER
IOWA...WITH A MINORED-OUT REMNANT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CONTROL AT LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO
THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... APPEAR VERY
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT/S ABOUT AS EXCITING AS IT GETS...AS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY A 500MB
HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING APN...OTHERWISE VFR.

WE ARE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST. SOME STRATO-CU
AND/OR CU WILL BE WITH US FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE VFR...THOUGH APN MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MVFR CIGS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AIDING IN DRYING
OUR AIRMASS BY TONIGHT.

INITIAL NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE W AND EVEN
SW TODAY...BEFORE GOING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK AROUND MORE
WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 221106
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
706 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...GREETINGS TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL (10:29 PM TONIGHT
OFFICIALLY)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SO IT BEGINS...THE MUCH
TALKED ABOUT (AND LIKELY WELCOMED) PERIOD OF QUIET AND INCREASINGLY
MILD WEATHER. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY TRENDING TO ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUCH...WITH YESTERDAY`S STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SAFELY TO THE EAST.
PARENT TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY MOVING OUT AS ELONGATED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING BEGINS ITS ADVANCE EAST...WITH NOTED MID AND UPPER HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH FRONTSIDE CAA/ASSOCIATED LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW STOUT H8 INVERSION STILL LEADING TO QUITE
A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME TODAY. NO DOUBT A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR OFF THE TABLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: FOR A CHANGE...MOSTLY
TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT COLD ANOMALIES PASSING
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE BEGINNING STAGES OF WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW SOUTH PROGRESS ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN SAID COLD FRONT AND
OHIO VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE HIGH. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAY START THE MORNING A TOUCH ON THE CLOUDY SIDE
FOR SOME. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MIXING TO EVENTUALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THE OVERCAST. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH UPSTREAM ONTARIO CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CLIPPING NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH DEPARTING TROUGHING. WILL
ACCOUNT SOME FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...TRENDING A TOUCH MORE
CLOUDY EACH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEPARTURE OF COLDEST ANOMALIES AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH (MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT WINDS) AND
CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A FALL OFF WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...WARM AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...

500MB RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL DO MORE DAMAGE TO THE INCOMING TROF THAN THE REVERSE.
OVERALL...THERE ARE FEW WX CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUE MORNING...WITH A 2ND WEAKER HIGH NEAR
THE WEST SHORE OF JAMES BAY. THE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE NE STATES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LAKES REGION EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES...WITH NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-5C RANGE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER.
HOWEVER...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OBLITERATE THIS WEAK MOIST PLUME...
LEAVING A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR HEADS. A TOUCH OF CLOUD COVER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY 1-2C ON WED OVER TUE...AND THERE ARE
FEWER CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER ON WED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER YET...NEAR 70 TO
THE MID 70S. IN BETWEEN...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE
INTERIOR...NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...STEADY AS SHE GOES. THE INCOMING UPPER TROF
ON WED NIGHT/THU WILL BE BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
LAKES REGION. THE TROF WILL LEAVE A PIECE OF ITSELF CUT OFF OVER
IOWA...WITH A MINORED-OUT REMNANT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CONTROL AT LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO
THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... APPEAR VERY
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT/S ABOUT AS EXCITING AS IT GETS...AS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY A 500MB
HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING APN...OTHERWISE VFR.

WE ARE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER...
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR EAST. SOME STRATO-CU
AND/OR CU WILL BE WITH US FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE VFR...THOUGH APN MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MVFR CIGS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...AIDING IN DRYING
OUR AIRMASS BY TONIGHT.

INITIAL NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE W AND EVEN
SW TODAY...BEFORE GOING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK AROUND MORE
WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 220638
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...GREETINGS TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL (10:29 PM TONIGHT
OFFICIALLY)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SO IT BEGINS...THE MUCH
TALKED ABOUT (AND LIKELY WELCOMED) PERIOD OF QUIET AND INCREASINGLY
MILD WEATHER. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY TRENDING TO ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUCH...WITH YESTERDAY`S STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SAFELY TO THE EAST.
PARENT TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY MOVING OUT AS ELONGATED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING BEGINS ITS ADVANCE EAST...WITH NOTED MID AND UPPER HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH FRONTSIDE CAA/ASSOCIATED LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW STOUT H8 INVERSION STILL LEADING TO QUITE
A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME TODAY. NO DOUBT A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR OFF THE TABLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: FOR A CHANGE...MOSTLY
TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT COLD ANOMALIES PASSING
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE BEGINNING STAGES OF WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW SOUTH PROGRESS ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN SAID COLD FRONT AND
OHIO VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE HIGH. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAY START THE MORNING A TOUCH ON THE CLOUDY SIDE
FOR SOME. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MIXING TO EVENTUALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THE OVERCAST. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH UPSTREAM ONTARIO CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CLIPPING NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH DEPARTING TROUGHING. WILL
ACCOUNT SOME FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...TRENDING A TOUCH MORE
CLOUDY EACH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEPARTURE OF COLDEST ANOMALIES AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH (MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT WINDS) AND
CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A FALL OFF WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...WARM AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...

500MB RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL DO MORE DAMAGE TO THE INCOMING TROF THAN THE REVERSE.
OVERALL...THERE ARE FEW WX CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUE MORNING...WITH A 2ND WEAKER HIGH NEAR
THE WEST SHORE OF JAMES BAY. THE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE NE STATES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LAKES REGION EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES...WITH NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-5C RANGE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER.
HOWEVER...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OBLITERATE THIS WEAK MOIST PLUME...
LEAVING A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR HEADS. A TOUCH OF CLOUD COVER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY 1-2C ON WED OVER TUE...AND THERE ARE
FEWER CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER ON WED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER YET...NEAR 70 TO
THE MID 70S. IN BETWEEN...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE
INTERIOR...NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...STEADY AS SHE GOES. THE INCOMING UPPER TROF
ON WED NIGHT/THU WILL BE BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
LAKES REGION. THE TROF WILL LEAVE A PIECE OF ITSELF CUT OFF OVER
IOWA...WITH A MINORED-OUT REMNANT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CONTROL AT LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO
THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... APPEAR VERY
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT/S ABOUT AS EXCITING AS IT GETS...AS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY A 500MB
HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL HANG OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MIXES OUT TO SCATTERED CU BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT AROUND 10
KTS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK AROUND MORE
WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 220638
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT MAINTAIN
AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGION EVEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME WARMER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...GREETINGS TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL (10:29 PM TONIGHT
OFFICIALLY)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SO IT BEGINS...THE MUCH
TALKED ABOUT (AND LIKELY WELCOMED) PERIOD OF QUIET AND INCREASINGLY
MILD WEATHER. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY TRENDING TO ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUCH...WITH YESTERDAY`S STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SAFELY TO THE EAST.
PARENT TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY MOVING OUT AS ELONGATED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGING BEGINS ITS ADVANCE EAST...WITH NOTED MID AND UPPER HEIGHT
RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO
OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH FRONTSIDE CAA/ASSOCIATED LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW STOUT H8 INVERSION STILL LEADING TO QUITE
A BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
WHICH COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME TODAY. NO DOUBT A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED READINGS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR OFF THE TABLE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: FOR A CHANGE...MOSTLY
TRIVIAL...CENTERING ON CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: A PERIOD OF CHANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT COLD ANOMALIES PASSING
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST AS THE BEGINNING STAGES OF WAA DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW SOUTH PROGRESS ACROSS
ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN SAID COLD FRONT AND
OHIO VALLEY CENTERED SURFACE HIGH. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MAY START THE MORNING A TOUCH ON THE CLOUDY SIDE
FOR SOME. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
MIXING TO EVENTUALLY HELP SCOUR OUT THE OVERCAST. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH UPSTREAM ONTARIO CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS DEEPER
MOISTURE CLIPPING NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH DEPARTING TROUGHING. WILL
ACCOUNT SOME FOR BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...TRENDING A TOUCH MORE
CLOUDY EACH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEPARTURE OF COLDEST ANOMALIES AND INCREASING
SUN SHOULD WORK TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO PUSH UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH (MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT WINDS) AND
CONTINUATION OF WAA WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH OF A FALL OFF WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...WARM AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...

500MB RIDGE AXIS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE MORNING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS WILL
SLIGHTLY SUPPRESS AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE BY WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL DO MORE DAMAGE TO THE INCOMING TROF THAN THE REVERSE.
OVERALL...THERE ARE FEW WX CONCERNS THIS WEEK.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUE MORNING...WITH A 2ND WEAKER HIGH NEAR
THE WEST SHORE OF JAMES BAY. THE TWO WILL MERGE OVER THE NE STATES
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LAKES REGION EVEN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN LAKES...WITH NAM PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE 3-5C RANGE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER.
HOWEVER...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL OBLITERATE THIS WEAK MOIST PLUME...
LEAVING A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR HEADS. A TOUCH OF CLOUD COVER
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED.

850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY 1-2C ON WED OVER TUE...AND THERE ARE
FEWER CONCERNS WITH CLOUD COVER ON WED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TUE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER YET...NEAR 70 TO
THE MID 70S. IN BETWEEN...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE
INTERIOR...NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...STEADY AS SHE GOES. THE INCOMING UPPER TROF
ON WED NIGHT/THU WILL BE BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE IN PLACE IN THE
LAKES REGION. THE TROF WILL LEAVE A PIECE OF ITSELF CUT OFF OVER
IOWA...WITH A MINORED-OUT REMNANT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE CONTROL AT LOW LEVELS...WITH STRONG
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO
THE VERY WEAK DYNAMICS...AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS... APPEAR VERY
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT/S ABOUT AS EXCITING AS IT GETS...AS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY A 500MB
HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL HANG OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MIXES OUT TO SCATTERED CU BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT AROUND 10
KTS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK AROUND MORE
WESTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 220345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RAIN WILL DIMINISH TROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXIT THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS MAY GET FROST TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...RAIN ENDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SE ONTARIO WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WORKING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL ON THE NRN/NW SIDE OF THE SHORT
WAVE HAS BEEN PIVOTING IT/S WAY S/E DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY
FROM ROGERS CITY TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM. TO OUR WEST...RIDGING AND A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER IS POISED TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS...AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL
WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ONGOING DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE
OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO TWEAK POPS/TIMING BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO IS HEATING
INDUCED AND WILL FADE TO VARYING DEGREES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
(H8 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C) AND A RESULTING NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT LAKE INDUCED PRECIP AT SOME POINT
IMPACTING THE N/NNW FLOW AREAS. THAT...AND A LINGERING P-GRADIENT/
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT
NO HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.  GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  POSSIBLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING FROM WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
ONTARIO AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  OTHERWISE...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
/ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS/. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  COOL NIGHTS /40S-50S/ BUT
LITTLE THREAT OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY EXTENDING THE STRING OF GREAT FALL WEATHER.  IN
FACT...THE 11 DAY ANALOG COMPOSITES CENTERED ON OCTOBER 1ST SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL HANG OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MIXES OUT TO SCATTERED CU BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT AROUND 10
KTS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PER SFC
OBS...HAVE HAD PERSISTENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND EARLIER HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS
MAY STILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 220345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RAIN WILL DIMINISH TROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXIT THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS MAY GET FROST TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...RAIN ENDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SE ONTARIO WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WORKING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL ON THE NRN/NW SIDE OF THE SHORT
WAVE HAS BEEN PIVOTING IT/S WAY S/E DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY
FROM ROGERS CITY TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM. TO OUR WEST...RIDGING AND A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER IS POISED TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS...AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL
WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ONGOING DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE
OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO TWEAK POPS/TIMING BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO IS HEATING
INDUCED AND WILL FADE TO VARYING DEGREES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
(H8 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C) AND A RESULTING NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT LAKE INDUCED PRECIP AT SOME POINT
IMPACTING THE N/NNW FLOW AREAS. THAT...AND A LINGERING P-GRADIENT/
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT
NO HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.  GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  POSSIBLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING FROM WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
ONTARIO AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  OTHERWISE...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
/ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS/. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  COOL NIGHTS /40S-50S/ BUT
LITTLE THREAT OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY EXTENDING THE STRING OF GREAT FALL WEATHER.  IN
FACT...THE 11 DAY ANALOG COMPOSITES CENTERED ON OCTOBER 1ST SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL HANG OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MIXES OUT TO SCATTERED CU BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT AROUND 10
KTS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PER SFC
OBS...HAVE HAD PERSISTENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND EARLIER HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS
MAY STILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 212300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RAIN WILL DIMINISH TROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXIT THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS MAY GET FROST TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...RAIN ENDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SE ONTARIO WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WORKING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL ON THE NRN/NW SIDE OF THE SHORT
WAVE HAS BEEN PIVOTING IT/S WAY S/E DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY
FROM ROGERS CITY TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM. TO OUR WEST...RIDGING AND A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER IS POISED TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS...AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL
WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ONGOING DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE
OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO TWEAK POPS/TIMING BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO IS HEATING
INDUCED AND WILL FADE TO VARYING DEGREES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
(H8 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C) AND A RESULTING NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT LAKE INDUCED PRECIP AT SOME POINT
IMPACTING THE N/NNW FLOW AREAS. THAT...AND A LINGERING P-GRADIENT/
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT
NO HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.  GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  POSSIBLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING FROM WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
ONTARIO AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  OTHERWISE...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
/ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS/. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  COOL NIGHTS /40S-50S/ BUT
LITTLE THREAT OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY EXTENDING THE STRING OF GREAT FALL WEATHER.  IN
FACT...THE 11 DAY ANALOG COMPOSITES CENTERED ON OCTOBER 1ST SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL HANG OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT TO SCATTERED CU BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT
AROUND 10 KTS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PER SFC
OBS...HAVE HAD PERSISTENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND EARLIER HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS
MAY STILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 212300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RAIN WILL DIMINISH TROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXIT THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS MAY GET FROST TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...RAIN ENDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SE ONTARIO WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WORKING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL ON THE NRN/NW SIDE OF THE SHORT
WAVE HAS BEEN PIVOTING IT/S WAY S/E DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY
FROM ROGERS CITY TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM. TO OUR WEST...RIDGING AND A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER IS POISED TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS...AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL
WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ONGOING DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE
OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO TWEAK POPS/TIMING BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO IS HEATING
INDUCED AND WILL FADE TO VARYING DEGREES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
(H8 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C) AND A RESULTING NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT LAKE INDUCED PRECIP AT SOME POINT
IMPACTING THE N/NNW FLOW AREAS. THAT...AND A LINGERING P-GRADIENT/
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT
NO HEADLINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.  GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  POSSIBLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING FROM WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
ONTARIO AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  OTHERWISE...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
/ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS/. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  COOL NIGHTS /40S-50S/ BUT
LITTLE THREAT OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY EXTENDING THE STRING OF GREAT FALL WEATHER.  IN
FACT...THE 11 DAY ANALOG COMPOSITES CENTERED ON OCTOBER 1ST SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL HANG OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT TO SCATTERED CU BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT
AROUND 10 KTS THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PER SFC
OBS...HAVE HAD PERSISTENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND EARLIER HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS
MAY STILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 211922
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RAIN WILL DIMINISH TROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXIT THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS MAY GET FROST TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...RAIN ENDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SE ONTARIO WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WORKING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL ON THE NRN/NW SIDE OF THE SHORT
WAVE HAS BEEN PIVOTING IT/S WAY S/E DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY
FROM ROGERS CITY TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM. TO OUR WEST...RIDGING AND A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER IS POISED TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS...AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL
WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ONGOING DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE
OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO TWEAK POPS/TIMING BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO IS HEATING
INDUCED AND WILL FADE TO VARYING DEGREES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
(H8 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C) AND A RESULTING NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT LAKE INDUCED PRECIP AT SOME POINT
IMPACTING THE N/NNW FLOW AREAS. THAT...AND A LINGERING P-GRADIENT/
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT
NO HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.  GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  POSSIBLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING FROM WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
ONTARIO AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  OTHERWISE...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
/ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS/. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  COOL NIGHTS /40S-50S/ BUT
LITTLE THREAT OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY EXTENDING THE STRING OF GREAT FALL WEATHER.  IN
FACT...THE 11 DAY ANALOG COMPOSITES CENTERED ON OCTOBER 1ST SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOLID MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND RAINFALL SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION.
THINK OVERALL BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN A COOL AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION/LAKE EFFECT
COMPONENT. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT ON MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS
EVENING...WE LOSE THE GUSTINESS ALTHOUGH WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST. LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY BACKING MORE W/NW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PER SFC
OBS...HAVE HAD PERSISTENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND EARLIER HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS
MAY STILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM









000
FXUS63 KAPX 211922
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RAIN WILL DIMINISH TROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXIT THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS MAY GET FROST TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...RAIN ENDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SE ONTARIO WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH DROPPING DOWN INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER NOW WORKING ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL ON THE NRN/NW SIDE OF THE SHORT
WAVE HAS BEEN PIVOTING IT/S WAY S/E DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW STRETCHES ROUGHLY
FROM ROGERS CITY TO CADILLAC AS OF 3 PM. TO OUR WEST...RIDGING AND A
LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER IS POISED TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS...AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL
WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ONGOING DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE
OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO TWEAK POPS/TIMING BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK INTO ONTARIO
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO IS HEATING
INDUCED AND WILL FADE TO VARYING DEGREES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
(H8 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C) AND A RESULTING NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
WITH ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE SOME NUISANCE LIGHT LAKE INDUCED PRECIP AT SOME POINT
IMPACTING THE N/NNW FLOW AREAS. THAT...AND A LINGERING P-GRADIENT/
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT
NO HEADLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC UPPER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WESTERLIES PROGRESSIVELY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INITIALLY SLIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.  GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS
850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY FOLDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  POSSIBLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING FROM WEAK COOL FRONT OVER
ONTARIO AND DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  OTHERWISE...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
/ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS/. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN LAKES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COOLISH TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
AREAS FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.  COOL NIGHTS /40S-50S/ BUT
LITTLE THREAT OF FROST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

UPPER HIGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY EXTENDING THE STRING OF GREAT FALL WEATHER.  IN
FACT...THE 11 DAY ANALOG COMPOSITES CENTERED ON OCTOBER 1ST SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOLID MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND RAINFALL SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION.
THINK OVERALL BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN A COOL AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION/LAKE EFFECT
COMPONENT. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT ON MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS
EVENING...WE LOSE THE GUSTINESS ALTHOUGH WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST. LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY BACKING MORE W/NW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. PER SFC
OBS...HAVE HAD PERSISTENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FROM LEELANAU TO MANISTEE...AND EARLIER HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS
MAY STILL BE AROUND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 211814
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
214 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS MAY GET FROST
TONIGHT...BUT OUR WEATHER WILL GET WARMER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER WORKING DOWN INTO SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL BACK ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS
GETTING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD. A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT...BUT DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE OUT OF
THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED POPS/TIMING JUST A BIT
BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES
BACK INTO ONTARIO ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO IS HEATING INDUCED. AM NOT CONVINCED WE FULLY CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY COOL AIR (H8 TEMPS AROUND 0C)
AND NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT. HAVE NUDGED UP CLOUD
COVER TO HAVE CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY) OVERNIGHT. THAT...AND A
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NOW SPINNING ITS WAY SE INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. PIVOTING WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF RAINFALL
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM NRN LAKE HURON
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN UNDER THE WAVE. SHORT WAVE CENTER WILL ADVANCE RATHER
QUICKLY INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE
STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OF COURSE DRAG DEFORMATION AXIS
OF PRECIP BACK DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
5 HOURS AND SHOULD BRING JUST ABOUT EVERYONE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TRIED TO PUT SOME DETAILED TIMING
INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE REALLY WEAKENED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF PRECIP. STILL A LITTLE CONVECTION DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT SEEMS THAT THUNDER MAY
BE DONE FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS...MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RAPID PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NHEM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STOUT RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE WESTERN NOAM COAST...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING DIGGING RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF ACTIVITY HELPING DEEPEN
THIS LATTER FEATURE...WITH YESTERDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WAVE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT...ALL-THE-WHILE A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE MAIN LEAD WAVE SUPPORT HAS
ENDED...ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL MANAGING TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWER AND STORMS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS EARLY HOUR. DEEP LAYER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RESPONSE VIA SECOND WAVE AND INCREASINGLY
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STRUCTURE HELPING DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN (SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER). FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST...IMPACTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION AND ENDING OF
SUCH TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS AND JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HARD TO IGNORE STRONG DYNAMICS OF APPROACHING WAVE...AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FAVORS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING SLIDING
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS A PRETTY SAFE BET
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF 0-6KM MU CAPE. FIGURING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAINS A MUCH HARDER ENDEAVOR...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING SOUTH VIA DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW
DRY AIR ADVANCEMENT AND NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS FOR A
RATHER SHARP POP DELINEATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EITHER WAY...RAINS WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EASY LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
ALL RAINS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND SIMPLE CAA...IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

NOT QUITE THE STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST AS ONE WOULD HOPE TONIGHT.
DIFFICULTIES LIE WITH CLOUD TRENDS...DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTH
FLOW EXPECTED ON ITS FRONTSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS
AND CLOUD CONCERNS MAKE FOR ONE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
REGARDING CLOUDS...STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPLY ITSELF HELPED ALONG BY WEAK LAKE PROCESSES. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE LIFTING AND SATURATION CAUSE ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...KEEPING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
GIVEN SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TOUCH...KEEPING EVEN THE FAVORED
ICE BOX LOCATIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. FROST FORMATION
LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WILL SIMPLY USE PATCHY WORDING IN THE COLDEST
AREAS...WITH NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...DRY AND WARMER AS THE WORK WEEK PROCEEDS...

UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NE
STATES...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO STEADILY RISE AS RIDGING ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MI MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL GET REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SE FROM N CENTRAL
CANADA...MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED
MORNING...THOUGH RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE LAKES
REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. WILL CERTAINLY BE OFF
TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS
TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE...NORTH OF THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF MI...AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME DAYTIME
CU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START...AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60-65F RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
40-50F RANGE. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GO FURTHER TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70/LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE WILL MINOR OUT ON THURSDAY AS IT
BRIEFLY DISRUPTS THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE-STARVED...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRECIP.
A 500MB HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS FRIDAY (NOT TOO OFTEN WE
CAN SAY THAT)...PROMISING DRY/WARM WX TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOLID MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND RAINFALL SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION.
THINK OVERALL BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN A COOL AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION/LAKE EFFECT
COMPONENT. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT ON MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS
EVENING...WE LOSE THE GUSTINESS ALTHOUGH WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST. LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY BACKING MORE W/NW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY WATERS ALREADY COVERED BY INHERITED SCA/S OVER MANY OF
THE NEARSHORES...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD:
MOSTLY QUIET...MILD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB









000
FXUS63 KAPX 211814
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
214 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS MAY GET FROST
TONIGHT...BUT OUR WEATHER WILL GET WARMER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION CENTER WORKING DOWN INTO SAGINAW BAY WHILE
WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION RAINFALL BACK ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS
GETTING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD. A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT...BUT DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD WORK IT/S WAY S/SE OUT OF
THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED POPS/TIMING JUST A BIT
BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

AFTER THAT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER STRETCHES
BACK INTO ONTARIO ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
ONTARIO IS HEATING INDUCED. AM NOT CONVINCED WE FULLY CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY COOL AIR (H8 TEMPS AROUND 0C)
AND NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT. HAVE NUDGED UP CLOUD
COVER TO HAVE CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT (PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY) OVERNIGHT. THAT...AND A
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SFC WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL KEEP FROST
POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NOW SPINNING ITS WAY SE INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. PIVOTING WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF RAINFALL
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM NRN LAKE HURON
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN UNDER THE WAVE. SHORT WAVE CENTER WILL ADVANCE RATHER
QUICKLY INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE
STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OF COURSE DRAG DEFORMATION AXIS
OF PRECIP BACK DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
5 HOURS AND SHOULD BRING JUST ABOUT EVERYONE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TRIED TO PUT SOME DETAILED TIMING
INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE REALLY WEAKENED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF PRECIP. STILL A LITTLE CONVECTION DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT SEEMS THAT THUNDER MAY
BE DONE FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS...MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RAPID PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NHEM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STOUT RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE WESTERN NOAM COAST...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING DIGGING RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF ACTIVITY HELPING DEEPEN
THIS LATTER FEATURE...WITH YESTERDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WAVE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT...ALL-THE-WHILE A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE MAIN LEAD WAVE SUPPORT HAS
ENDED...ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL MANAGING TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWER AND STORMS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS EARLY HOUR. DEEP LAYER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RESPONSE VIA SECOND WAVE AND INCREASINGLY
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STRUCTURE HELPING DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN (SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER). FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST...IMPACTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION AND ENDING OF
SUCH TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS AND JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HARD TO IGNORE STRONG DYNAMICS OF APPROACHING WAVE...AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FAVORS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING SLIDING
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS A PRETTY SAFE BET
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF 0-6KM MU CAPE. FIGURING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAINS A MUCH HARDER ENDEAVOR...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING SOUTH VIA DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW
DRY AIR ADVANCEMENT AND NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS FOR A
RATHER SHARP POP DELINEATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EITHER WAY...RAINS WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EASY LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
ALL RAINS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND SIMPLE CAA...IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

NOT QUITE THE STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST AS ONE WOULD HOPE TONIGHT.
DIFFICULTIES LIE WITH CLOUD TRENDS...DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTH
FLOW EXPECTED ON ITS FRONTSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS
AND CLOUD CONCERNS MAKE FOR ONE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
REGARDING CLOUDS...STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPLY ITSELF HELPED ALONG BY WEAK LAKE PROCESSES. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE LIFTING AND SATURATION CAUSE ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...KEEPING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
GIVEN SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TOUCH...KEEPING EVEN THE FAVORED
ICE BOX LOCATIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. FROST FORMATION
LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WILL SIMPLY USE PATCHY WORDING IN THE COLDEST
AREAS...WITH NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...DRY AND WARMER AS THE WORK WEEK PROCEEDS...

UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NE
STATES...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO STEADILY RISE AS RIDGING ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MI MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL GET REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SE FROM N CENTRAL
CANADA...MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED
MORNING...THOUGH RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE LAKES
REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. WILL CERTAINLY BE OFF
TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS
TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE...NORTH OF THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF MI...AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME DAYTIME
CU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START...AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60-65F RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
40-50F RANGE. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GO FURTHER TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70/LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE WILL MINOR OUT ON THURSDAY AS IT
BRIEFLY DISRUPTS THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE-STARVED...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRECIP.
A 500MB HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS FRIDAY (NOT TOO OFTEN WE
CAN SAY THAT)...PROMISING DRY/WARM WX TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOLID MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND RAINFALL SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION.
THINK OVERALL BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT
GIVEN A COOL AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION/LAKE EFFECT
COMPONENT. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT ON MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT THIS
EVENING...WE LOSE THE GUSTINESS ALTHOUGH WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST. LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY BACKING MORE W/NW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY WATERS ALREADY COVERED BY INHERITED SCA/S OVER MANY OF
THE NEARSHORES...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD:
MOSTLY QUIET...MILD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 211428
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1028 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS MAY GET FROST
TONIGHT...BUT OUR WEATHER WILL GET WARMER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NOW SPINNING ITS WAY SE INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. PIVOTING WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF RAINFALL
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM NRN LAKE HURON
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN UNDER THE WAVE. SHORT WAVE CENTER WILL ADVANCE RATHER
QUICKLY INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE
STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OF COURSE DRAG DEFORMATION AXIS
OF PRECIP BACK DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
5 HOURS AND SHOULD BRING JUST ABOUT EVERYONE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TRIED TO PUT SOME DETAILED TIMING
INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE REALLY WEAKENED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF PRECIP. STILL A LITTLE CONVECTION DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT SEEMS THAT THUNDER MAY
BE DONE FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS...MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RAPID PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NHEM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STOUT RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE WESTERN NOAM COAST...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING DIGGING RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF ACTIVITY HELPING DEEPEN
THIS LATTER FEATURE...WITH YESTERDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WAVE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT...ALL-THE-WHILE A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE MAIN LEAD WAVE SUPPORT HAS
ENDED...ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL MANAGING TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWER AND STORMS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS EARLY HOUR. DEEP LAYER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RESPONSE VIA SECOND WAVE AND INCREASINGLY
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STRUCTURE HELPING DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN (SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER). FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST...IMPACTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION AND ENDING OF
SUCH TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS AND JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HARD TO IGNORE STRONG DYNAMICS OF APPROACHING WAVE...AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FAVORS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING SLIDING
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS A PRETTY SAFE BET
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF 0-6KM MU CAPE. FIGURING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAINS A MUCH HARDER ENDEAVOR...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING SOUTH VIA DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW
DRY AIR ADVANCEMENT AND NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS FOR A
RATHER SHARP POP DELINEATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EITHER WAY...RAINS WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EASY LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
ALL RAINS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND SIMPLE CAA...IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

NOT QUITE THE STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST AS ONE WOULD HOPE TONIGHT.
DIFFICULTIES LIE WITH CLOUD TRENDS...DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTH
FLOW EXPECTED ON ITS FRONTSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS
AND CLOUD CONCERNS MAKE FOR ONE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
REGARDING CLOUDS...STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPLY ITSELF HELPED ALONG BY WEAK LAKE PROCESSES. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE LIFTING AND SATURATION CAUSE ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...KEEPING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
GIVEN SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TOUCH...KEEPING EVEN THE FAVORED
ICE BOX LOCATIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. FROST FORMATION
LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WILL SIMPLY USE PATCHY WORDING IN THE COLDEST
AREAS...WITH NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...DRY AND WARMER AS THE WORK WEEK PROCEEDS...

UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NE
STATES...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO STEADILY RISE AS RIDGING ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MI MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL GET REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SE FROM N CENTRAL
CANADA...MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED
MORNING...THOUGH RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE LAKES
REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. WILL CERTAINLY BE OFF
TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS
TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE...NORTH OF THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF MI...AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME DAYTIME
CU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START...AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60-65F RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
40-50F RANGE. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GO FURTHER TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70/LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE WILL MINOR OUT ON THURSDAY AS IT
BRIEFLY DISRUPTS THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE-STARVED...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRECIP.
A 500MB HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS FRIDAY (NOT TOO OFTEN WE
CAN SAY THAT)...PROMISING DRY/WARM WX TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IS JUST EAST OF OSC EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. ONGOING SHRA
WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND END THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
TEND TO IMPROVE WITH TIME...BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR FOR PART
OF THE MORNING...AND APN WILL BE IFR. ALL LOCALES WILL BECOME VFR
AS THE AFTERNOON PROCEEDS.

SOMEWHAT GUSTY N WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY WATERS ALREADY COVERED BY INHERITED SCA/S OVER MANY OF
THE NEARSHORES...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD:
MOSTLY QUIET...MILD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 211428
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1028 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS MAY GET FROST
TONIGHT...BUT OUR WEATHER WILL GET WARMER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NOW SPINNING ITS WAY SE INTO CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. PIVOTING WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF RAINFALL
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM NRN LAKE HURON
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN UNDER THE WAVE. SHORT WAVE CENTER WILL ADVANCE RATHER
QUICKLY INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE
STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OF COURSE DRAG DEFORMATION AXIS
OF PRECIP BACK DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
5 HOURS AND SHOULD BRING JUST ABOUT EVERYONE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE TRIED TO PUT SOME DETAILED TIMING
INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE REALLY WEAKENED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF PRECIP. STILL A LITTLE CONVECTION DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT SEEMS THAT THUNDER MAY
BE DONE FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS...MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RAPID PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NHEM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STOUT RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE WESTERN NOAM COAST...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING DIGGING RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF ACTIVITY HELPING DEEPEN
THIS LATTER FEATURE...WITH YESTERDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WAVE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT...ALL-THE-WHILE A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE MAIN LEAD WAVE SUPPORT HAS
ENDED...ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL MANAGING TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWER AND STORMS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS EARLY HOUR. DEEP LAYER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RESPONSE VIA SECOND WAVE AND INCREASINGLY
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STRUCTURE HELPING DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN (SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER). FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST...IMPACTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION AND ENDING OF
SUCH TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS AND JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HARD TO IGNORE STRONG DYNAMICS OF APPROACHING WAVE...AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FAVORS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING SLIDING
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS A PRETTY SAFE BET
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF 0-6KM MU CAPE. FIGURING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAINS A MUCH HARDER ENDEAVOR...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING SOUTH VIA DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW
DRY AIR ADVANCEMENT AND NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS FOR A
RATHER SHARP POP DELINEATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EITHER WAY...RAINS WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EASY LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
ALL RAINS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND SIMPLE CAA...IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

NOT QUITE THE STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST AS ONE WOULD HOPE TONIGHT.
DIFFICULTIES LIE WITH CLOUD TRENDS...DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTH
FLOW EXPECTED ON ITS FRONTSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS
AND CLOUD CONCERNS MAKE FOR ONE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
REGARDING CLOUDS...STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPLY ITSELF HELPED ALONG BY WEAK LAKE PROCESSES. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE LIFTING AND SATURATION CAUSE ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...KEEPING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
GIVEN SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TOUCH...KEEPING EVEN THE FAVORED
ICE BOX LOCATIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. FROST FORMATION
LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WILL SIMPLY USE PATCHY WORDING IN THE COLDEST
AREAS...WITH NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...DRY AND WARMER AS THE WORK WEEK PROCEEDS...

UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NE
STATES...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO STEADILY RISE AS RIDGING ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MI MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL GET REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SE FROM N CENTRAL
CANADA...MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED
MORNING...THOUGH RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE LAKES
REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. WILL CERTAINLY BE OFF
TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS
TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE...NORTH OF THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF MI...AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME DAYTIME
CU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START...AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60-65F RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
40-50F RANGE. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GO FURTHER TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70/LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE WILL MINOR OUT ON THURSDAY AS IT
BRIEFLY DISRUPTS THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE-STARVED...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRECIP.
A 500MB HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS FRIDAY (NOT TOO OFTEN WE
CAN SAY THAT)...PROMISING DRY/WARM WX TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IS JUST EAST OF OSC EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. ONGOING SHRA
WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND END THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
TEND TO IMPROVE WITH TIME...BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR FOR PART
OF THE MORNING...AND APN WILL BE IFR. ALL LOCALES WILL BECOME VFR
AS THE AFTERNOON PROCEEDS.

SOMEWHAT GUSTY N WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY WATERS ALREADY COVERED BY INHERITED SCA/S OVER MANY OF
THE NEARSHORES...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD:
MOSTLY QUIET...MILD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 211052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS MAY GET FROST
TONIGHT...BUT OUR WEATHER WILL GET WARMER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS...MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RAPID PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NHEM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STOUT RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE WESTERN NOAM COAST...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING DIGGING RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF ACTIVITY HELPING DEEPEN
THIS LATTER FEATURE...WITH YESTERDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WAVE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT...ALL-THE-WHILE A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE MAIN LEAD WAVE SUPPORT HAS
ENDED...ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL MANAGING TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWER AND STORMS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS EARLY HOUR. DEEP LAYER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RESPONSE VIA SECOND WAVE AND INCREASINGLY
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STRUCTURE HELPING DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN (SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER). FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST...IMPACTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION AND ENDING OF
SUCH TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS AND JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HARD TO IGNORE STRONG DYNAMICS OF APPROACHING WAVE...AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FAVORS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING SLIDING
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS A PRETTY SAFE BET
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF 0-6KM MU CAPE. FIGURING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAINS A MUCH HARDER ENDEAVOR...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING SOUTH VIA DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW
DRY AIR ADVANCEMENT AND NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS FOR A
RATHER SHARP POP DELINEATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EITHER WAY...RAINS WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EASY LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
ALL RAINS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND SIMPLE CAA...IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

NOT QUITE THE STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST AS ONE WOULD HOPE TONIGHT.
DIFFICULTIES LIE WITH CLOUD TRENDS...DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTH
FLOW EXPECTED ON ITS FRONTSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS
AND CLOUD CONCERNS MAKE FOR ONE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
REGARDING CLOUDS...STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPLY ITSELF HELPED ALONG BY WEAK LAKE PROCESSES. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE LIFTING AND SATURATION CAUSE ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...KEEPING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
GIVEN SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TOUCH...KEEPING EVEN THE FAVORED
ICE BOX LOCATIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. FROST FORMATION
LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WILL SIMPLY USE PATCHY WORDING IN THE COLDEST
AREAS...WITH NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...DRY AND WARMER AS THE WORK WEEK PROCEEDS...

UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NE
STATES...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO STEADILY RISE AS RIDGING ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MI MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL GET REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SE FROM N CENTRAL
CANADA...MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED
MORNING...THOUGH RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE LAKES
REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. WILL CERTAINLY BE OFF
TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS
TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE...NORTH OF THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF MI...AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME DAYTIME
CU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START...AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60-65F RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
40-50F RANGE. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GO FURTHER TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70/LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE WILL MINOR OUT ON THURSDAY AS IT
BRIEFLY DISRUPTS THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE-STARVED...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRECIP.
A 500MB HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS FRIDAY (NOT TOO OFTEN WE
CAN SAY THAT)...PROMISING DRY/WARM WX TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IS JUST EAST OF OSC EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. ONGOING SHRA
WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND END THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
TEND TO IMPROVE WITH TIME...BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR FOR PART
OF THE MORNING...AND APN WILL BE IFR. ALL LOCALES WILL BECOME VFR
AS THE AFTERNOON PROCEEDS.

SOMEWHAT GUSTY N WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY WATERS ALREADY COVERED BY INHERITED SCA/S OVER MANY OF
THE NEARSHORES...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD:
MOSTLY QUIET...MILD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 211052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS MAY GET FROST
TONIGHT...BUT OUR WEATHER WILL GET WARMER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS...MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RAPID PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NHEM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STOUT RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE WESTERN NOAM COAST...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING DIGGING RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF ACTIVITY HELPING DEEPEN
THIS LATTER FEATURE...WITH YESTERDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WAVE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT...ALL-THE-WHILE A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE MAIN LEAD WAVE SUPPORT HAS
ENDED...ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL MANAGING TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWER AND STORMS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS EARLY HOUR. DEEP LAYER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RESPONSE VIA SECOND WAVE AND INCREASINGLY
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STRUCTURE HELPING DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN (SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER). FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST...IMPACTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION AND ENDING OF
SUCH TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS AND JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HARD TO IGNORE STRONG DYNAMICS OF APPROACHING WAVE...AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FAVORS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING SLIDING
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS A PRETTY SAFE BET
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF 0-6KM MU CAPE. FIGURING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAINS A MUCH HARDER ENDEAVOR...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING SOUTH VIA DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW
DRY AIR ADVANCEMENT AND NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS FOR A
RATHER SHARP POP DELINEATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EITHER WAY...RAINS WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EASY LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
ALL RAINS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND SIMPLE CAA...IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

NOT QUITE THE STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST AS ONE WOULD HOPE TONIGHT.
DIFFICULTIES LIE WITH CLOUD TRENDS...DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTH
FLOW EXPECTED ON ITS FRONTSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS
AND CLOUD CONCERNS MAKE FOR ONE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
REGARDING CLOUDS...STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPLY ITSELF HELPED ALONG BY WEAK LAKE PROCESSES. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE LIFTING AND SATURATION CAUSE ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...KEEPING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
GIVEN SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TOUCH...KEEPING EVEN THE FAVORED
ICE BOX LOCATIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. FROST FORMATION
LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WILL SIMPLY USE PATCHY WORDING IN THE COLDEST
AREAS...WITH NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...DRY AND WARMER AS THE WORK WEEK PROCEEDS...

UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NE
STATES...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO STEADILY RISE AS RIDGING ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MI MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL GET REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SE FROM N CENTRAL
CANADA...MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED
MORNING...THOUGH RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE LAKES
REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. WILL CERTAINLY BE OFF
TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS
TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE...NORTH OF THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF MI...AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME DAYTIME
CU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START...AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60-65F RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
40-50F RANGE. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GO FURTHER TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70/LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE WILL MINOR OUT ON THURSDAY AS IT
BRIEFLY DISRUPTS THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE-STARVED...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRECIP.
A 500MB HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS FRIDAY (NOT TOO OFTEN WE
CAN SAY THAT)...PROMISING DRY/WARM WX TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IS JUST EAST OF OSC EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER NORTHERN MI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. ONGOING SHRA
WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING...AND END THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
TEND TO IMPROVE WITH TIME...BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR FOR PART
OF THE MORNING...AND APN WILL BE IFR. ALL LOCALES WILL BECOME VFR
AS THE AFTERNOON PROCEEDS.

SOMEWHAT GUSTY N WINDS TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY WATERS ALREADY COVERED BY INHERITED SCA/S OVER MANY OF
THE NEARSHORES...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD:
MOSTLY QUIET...MILD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 210640
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE USUAL COLD SPOTS MAY GET FROST
TONIGHT...BUT OUR WEATHER WILL GET WARMER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS...MUCH COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RAPID PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WELL UNDERWAY...WITH NHEM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STOUT RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE WESTERN NOAM COAST...WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING DIGGING RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF ACTIVITY HELPING DEEPEN
THIS LATTER FEATURE...WITH YESTERDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS PRODUCING WAVE
EXITING STAGE RIGHT...ALL-THE-WHILE A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE IS
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WHILE MAIN LEAD WAVE SUPPORT HAS
ENDED...ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL MANAGING TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWER AND STORMS SOUTH OF M-32 AT THIS EARLY HOUR. DEEP LAYER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RESPONSE VIA SECOND WAVE AND INCREASINGLY
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STRUCTURE HELPING DRIVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS JUST TO OUR WEST BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN (SOME OF WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER). FORCING AND ASSOCIATED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST...IMPACTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR SOME CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION AND ENDING OF
SUCH TODAY. CLOUD TRENDS AND JUST HOW COLD TO GO TONIGHT.

DETAILS: HARD TO IGNORE STRONG DYNAMICS OF APPROACHING WAVE...AND
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FAVORS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING SLIDING
ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS A PRETTY SAFE BET
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS EVEN POSSIBLE GIVEN RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF 0-6KM MU CAPE. FIGURING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RAINS A MUCH HARDER ENDEAVOR...WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING SOUTH VIA DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW. AREAS NORTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW
DRY AIR ADVANCEMENT AND NORTHERN EDGE OF BETTER DYNAMICS FOR A
RATHER SHARP POP DELINEATION FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-32 ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER. EITHER WAY...RAINS WILL STEADILY END FROM WEST TO EASY LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
ALL RAINS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND SIMPLE CAA...IT WILL BE MUCH CHILLIER
DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY.

NOT QUITE THE STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST AS ONE WOULD HOPE TONIGHT.
DIFFICULTIES LIE WITH CLOUD TRENDS...DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTH
FLOW EXPECTED ON ITS FRONTSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS
AND CLOUD CONCERNS MAKE FOR ONE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
REGARDING CLOUDS...STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE
SUPPLY ITSELF HELPED ALONG BY WEAK LAKE PROCESSES. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ONLY HELP THE LIFTING AND SATURATION CAUSE ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...KEEPING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
GIVEN SUCH...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A TOUCH...KEEPING EVEN THE FAVORED
ICE BOX LOCATIONS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. FROST FORMATION
LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WILL SIMPLY USE PATCHY WORDING IN THE COLDEST
AREAS...WITH NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...DRY AND WARMER AS THE WORK WEEK PROCEEDS...

UPPER FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROF
INITIALLY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN LAKES WILL EXIT TO THE NE
STATES...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO STEADILY RISE AS RIDGING ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF MI MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL GET REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING SE FROM N CENTRAL
CANADA...MERGING INTO A LARGE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED
MORNING...THOUGH RIDGING WILL STILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE LAKES
REGION. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...NOT MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT. WILL CERTAINLY BE OFF
TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME CLOUDS
TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE...NORTH OF THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF MI...AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS...AND SOME DAYTIME
CU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START...AND WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60-65F RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE
40-50F RANGE. THAT WILL HELP TEMPS GO FURTHER TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70/LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE WILL MINOR OUT ON THURSDAY AS IT
BRIEFLY DISRUPTS THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE-STARVED...AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRECIP.
A 500MB HIGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER OUR HEADS FRIDAY (NOT TOO OFTEN WE
CAN SAY THAT)...PROMISING DRY/WARM WX TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
AS WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL THEN STRENGTHEN DURING
THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TODAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS
AND CHOPPY WATERS ALREADY COVERED BY INHERITED SCA/S OVER MANY OF
THE NEARSHORES...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD:
MOSTLY QUIET...MILD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 210345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS STRETCHES FROM ILLINOIS/SRN WISCONSIN UP
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT ABOUT TO PRESS
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE AXIS HAS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH SEVERAL THIN LINES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS NOW WORKING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER THIN
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
ABOUT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE TODAY...WILL NOT GET CUTE
WITH TIMING/DETAILS. COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH DOWN THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP NOTED
ADVANCING SE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...ALONG THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL
SWING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIRTING THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES OF
THIS CWA. INHERITED ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE LATE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR THOSE AREAS AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT
THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DRY AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST WILL PROVIDE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...GENERATING A VERY
COOL NIGHT/MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE UPPER 30S BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BEING THE COOLEST. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES FROST IS OBVIOUSLY A THREAT AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

REST OF THE PERIOD...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STEADY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. RESULTING IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH HEIGHT INCREASES AND DRY AIR...WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND GIVE US A STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY NICE BEGINNING OF THE FALL
SEASON...WHICH BEGINS AT 1029PM MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY TO 75 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TUESDAY AND WARM A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH
WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
AS WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL THEN STRENGTHEN DURING
THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON WILL END THIS EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. APPEARS TO ONLY BE A SHORT BREAK
THOUGH OF NO HEADLINES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS NORTHWEST
WINDS RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES ONCE AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LIGHTNING. MONDAY WILL BEGIN A DRY AND
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...TL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 210345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS STRETCHES FROM ILLINOIS/SRN WISCONSIN UP
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT ABOUT TO PRESS
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE AXIS HAS BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH SEVERAL THIN LINES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS NOW WORKING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER THIN
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT AND
ABOUT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE GONE TODAY...WILL NOT GET CUTE
WITH TIMING/DETAILS. COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH DOWN THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP NOTED
ADVANCING SE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...ALONG THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO NRN MICHIGAN.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL
SWING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIRTING THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES OF
THIS CWA. INHERITED ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE LATE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR THOSE AREAS AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT
THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DRY AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS CLEARING
AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST WILL PROVIDE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...GENERATING A VERY
COOL NIGHT/MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO THE UPPER 30S BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BEING THE COOLEST. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES FROST IS OBVIOUSLY A THREAT AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

REST OF THE PERIOD...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STEADY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. RESULTING IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH HEIGHT INCREASES AND DRY AIR...WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND GIVE US A STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A VERY NICE BEGINNING OF THE FALL
SEASON...WHICH BEGINS AT 1029PM MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY TO 75 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TUESDAY AND WARM A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH
WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN
AS WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THRU THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL THEN STRENGTHEN DURING
THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON WILL END THIS EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. APPEARS TO ONLY BE A SHORT BREAK
THOUGH OF NO HEADLINES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS NORTHWEST
WINDS RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES ONCE AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LIGHTNING. MONDAY WILL BEGIN A DRY AND
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...TL







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