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000
FXUS63 KAPX 250115
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
915 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION PROVIDES SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HAVE BEEN FIDDLING WITH SKY COVER GRIDS THRU THE EVENING.
DOWNSTATE CLEARING IS TRYING TO EDGE UP INTO THE GLADWIN/
STANDISH/TAWAS AREAS...BUT OTHERWISE LOW CLOUD DECK IS HOLDING
TOUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MI. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR THIS TO WORK UP
INTO OTHER PARTS OF NE LOWER. MEANWHILE...STRATUS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST IS EXPANDING QUICKLY EAST...AND FILLING IN
ACROSS LAKE MI. SO ELSEWHERE...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WE GET
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING. WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY BUMP UP MIN TEMPS IN NORTHERN LOWER MI A HAIR.

VERY BRIEF PRE-FRONTAL PERIOD WHERE MOISTURE DEEPENS UP A SMIDGE.
SUSPECT DRIZZLE WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO UPSLOPE LOCALES...AND
WILL DIMINISH MENTION OF SUCH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MORE DRIZZLE? ...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST IS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE CLEARING LINE IN WISCONSIN IS BEGINNING TO HEAD
OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, MORE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVES IN POST 04Z. ONCE THE NEXT BATCH IS IN HERE,
AND WITH THE TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO HEAD BACK UP OR AT THE VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 12Z THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH,
SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG JET ENERGY
FLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM...WITH AN OLD CUT-OFF FEATURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SPLIT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (THAT BROUGHT US
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT) NOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE
PIECE MOVING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...NARROW RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS SPANS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOOKING TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A RECONFIGURATION WITH A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT
LAKES...RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...RECENT EURO/GFS/GEM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA...SOMEWHAT...AND INSTEAD HANG ON TO EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGHING WHILE MAINTAINING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. COLDER AIR DOES STILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE ARCTIC
NEXT WEEK...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
FOR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE
EXHIBITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCY.

IN THE NEARER TERM...BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DRY. ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/
FORCING...ALTHOUGH THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SPOTTY RETURNS/SPRINKLES
ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEXT BATCH OF
STRATUS ALREADY ACROSS IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET
DRAWN UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE
AGAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING
FORECAST ALREADY PAINTS THAT SCENARIO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING AND DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW AND COOL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED WE SEE A BIT MORE LAKE RESPONSE/
LAKE CLOUDS. THEN...A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
DEEPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
CONUS DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BRINGING A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION FORCING PART OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW AND
FRONT ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.

GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER
AIR OVER THE LAKES (-2C TO -4C H8 TEMPS) AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW/
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...W/NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...PERHAPS A BREAK/DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECT A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH CANADA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR GETS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR UP THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT COLDER NONETHELESS BY HALLOWEEN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MVFR TO IFR CIGS TONIGHT AND TO START SAT MORNING...THEN QUICKLY
TURNING BREEZY AND VFR.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ADVANCE
QUICKLY TO THE EAST...CROSSING NORTHERN MI TOWARD DAYBREAK. MVFR
TO AT TIMES IFR CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH SOME
BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK ARE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MBL AND PERHAPS APN WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRIEFLY BE
ENHANCED...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS (IFR) AND PERHAPS SOME
-DZ/BR. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE SFC AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN NW LOWER IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z, AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT HEIGHTS (3
TO 5 FEET) BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
EVENTUALLY, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
LAKE HURON AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AREA FROM THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE TO NORTH POINT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THE
WAVES SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 242343
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION PROVIDES SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MORE DRIZZLE? ...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST IS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE CLEARING LINE IN WISCONSIN IS BEGINNING TO HEAD
OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, MORE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVES IN POST 04Z. ONCE THE NEXT BATCH IS IN HERE,
AND WITH THE TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO HEAD BACK UP OR AT THE VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 12Z THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH,
SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG JET ENERGY
FLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM...WITH AN OLD CUT-OFF FEATURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SPLIT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (THAT BROUGHT US
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT) NOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE
PIECE MOVING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...NARROW RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS SPANS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOOKING TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A RECONFIGURATION WITH A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT
LAKES...RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...RECENT EURO/GFS/GEM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA...SOMEWHAT...AND INSTEAD HANG ON TO EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGHING WHILE MAINTAINING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. COLDER AIR DOES STILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE ARCTIC
NEXT WEEK...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
FOR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE
EXHIBITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCY.

IN THE NEARER TERM...BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DRY. ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/
FORCING...ALTHOUGH THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SPOTTY RETURNS/SPRINKLES
ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEXT BATCH OF
STRATUS ALREADY ACROSS IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET
DRAWN UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE
AGAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING
FORECAST ALREADY PAINTS THAT SCENARIO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING AND DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW AND COOL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED WE SEE A BIT MORE LAKE RESPONSE/
LAKE CLOUDS. THEN...A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
DEEPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
CONUS DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BRINGING A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION FORCING PART OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW AND
FRONT ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.

GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER
AIR OVER THE LAKES (-2C TO -4C H8 TEMPS) AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW/
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...W/NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...PERHAPS A BREAK/DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECT A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH CANADA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR GETS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR UP THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT COLDER NONETHELESS BY HALLOWEEN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MVFR TO IFR CIGS TONIGHT AND TO START SAT MORNING...THEN QUICKLY
TURNING BREEZY AND VFR.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ADVANCE
QUICKLY TO THE EAST...CROSSING NORTHERN MI TOWARD DAYBREAK. MVFR
TO AT TIMES IFR CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH SOME
BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK ARE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
MBL AND PERHAPS APN WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRIEFLY BE
ENHANCED...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS (IFR) AND PERHAPS SOME
-DZ/BR. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...GUSTY W TO NW WINDS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE SFC AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN NW LOWER IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z, AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT HEIGHTS (3
TO 5 FEET) BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
EVENTUALLY, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
LAKE HURON AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AREA FROM THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE TO NORTH POINT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THE
WAVES SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 241955
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION PROVIDES SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MORE DRIZZLE? ...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST IS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE CLEARING LINE IN WISCONSIN IS BEGINNING TO HEAD
OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, MORE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVES IN POST 04Z. ONCE THE NEXT BATCH IS IN HERE,
AND WITH THE TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO HEAD BACK UP OR AT THE VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 12Z THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH,
SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG JET ENERGY
FLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM...WITH AN OLD CUT-OFF FEATURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SPLIT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (THAT BROUGHT US
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT) NOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE
PIECE MOVING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...NARROW RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS SPANS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOOKING TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A RECONFIGURATION WITH A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT
LAKES...RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...RECENT EURO/GFS/GEM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA...SOMEWHAT...AND INSTEAD HANG ON TO EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGHING WHILE MAINTAINING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. COLDER AIR DOES STILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE ARCTIC
NEXT WEEK...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
FOR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE
EXHIBITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCY.

IN THE NEARER TERM...BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DRY. ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/
FORCING...ALTHOUGH THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SPOTTY RETURNS/SPRINKLES
ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEXT BATCH OF
STRATUS ALREADY ACROSS IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET
DRAWN UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE
AGAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING
FORECAST ALREADY PAINTS THAT SCENARIO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING AND DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW AND COOL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED WE SEE A BIT MORE LAKE RESPONSE/
LAKE CLOUDS. THEN...A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
DEEPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
CONUS DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BRINGING A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION FORCING PART OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW AND
FRONT ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.

GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER
AIR OVER THE LAKES (-2C TO -4C H8 TEMPS) AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW/
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...W/NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...PERHAPS A BREAK/DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECT A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH CANADA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR GETS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR UP THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT COLDER NONETHELESS BY HALLOWEEN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE SFC AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN NW LOWER IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z, AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT HEIGHTS (3
TO 5 FEET) BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
EVENTUALLY, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
LAKE HURON AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AREA FROM THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE TO NORTH POINT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THE
WAVES SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 241955
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION PROVIDES SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MORE DRIZZLE? ...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOWER TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE FORECAST IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE WEST IS THE SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG
AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE CLEARING LINE IN WISCONSIN IS BEGINNING TO HEAD
OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, MORE MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND
THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVES IN POST 04Z. ONCE THE NEXT BATCH IS IN HERE,
AND WITH THE TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO HEAD BACK UP OR AT THE VERY LEAST HOLD STEADY AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS,
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT, SO WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE WHILE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE AROUND 12Z THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH,
SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND STRONG JET ENERGY
FLOWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SPLIT ACROSS EASTERN
NOAM...WITH AN OLD CUT-OFF FEATURE LIFTING NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SPLIT SHORT WAVE ENERGY (THAT BROUGHT US
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT) NOW EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE
PIECE MOVING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVING DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE SE ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...NARROW RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS SPANS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND LOOKING TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN STILL
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH/NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WAS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A RECONFIGURATION WITH A BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT
LAKES...RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...RECENT EURO/GFS/GEM GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF
THIS IDEA...SOMEWHAT...AND INSTEAD HANG ON TO EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGHING WHILE MAINTAINING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. COLDER AIR DOES STILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE ARCTIC
NEXT WEEK...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
FOR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS HAVE
EXHIBITED A FAIR AMOUNT OF INCONSISTENCY.

IN THE NEARER TERM...BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE LOW CLOUDS/FOG CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE STATE BY EVENING. VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED PRECIP
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONGER FORCING WILL RESIDE WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS FAIRLY DRY. ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/
FORCING...ALTHOUGH THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SPOTTY RETURNS/SPRINKLES
ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEXT BATCH OF
STRATUS ALREADY ACROSS IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET
DRAWN UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH DRIZZLE
AGAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING
FORECAST ALREADY PAINTS THAT SCENARIO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING AND DRYING THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN A DECENT DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW AND COOL LOW
LEVEL TEMPS...AM A BIT CONCERNED WE SEE A BIT MORE LAKE RESPONSE/
LAKE CLOUDS. THEN...A COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
DEEPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS EASTERN NOAM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
CONUS DURING THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BRINGING A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM
ADVECTION FORCING PART OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SFC/UPPER LOW AND
FRONT ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.

GRADUALLY DRIES OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER
AIR OVER THE LAKES (-2C TO -4C H8 TEMPS) AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW/
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...W/NW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...PERHAPS A BREAK/DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY. BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECT A BIGGER PUSH OF COLD AIR DOWN THROUGH CANADA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. JUST HOW MUCH COLD
AIR GETS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR UP THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. BUT COLDER NONETHELESS BY HALLOWEEN WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WORDING IN EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF THE SFC AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN NW LOWER IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z, AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT HEIGHTS (3
TO 5 FEET) BY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA GUSTS.
EVENTUALLY, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
LAKE HURON AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AREA FROM THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE TO NORTH POINT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THE
WAVES SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 241749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION IS GOING TO GET A CLOSE TO REACHING THE HIGHS
DEPSITE THE CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST, WHICH MAY YIELD SOME BREAKS, BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF
THE CLEARING WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THEN AFTER
THAT THE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 241736
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 241402
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO AN INVERSION PRESENT WHICH WILL SERVE TO LOCK THIS LOW CLOUD
IN PLACE...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME DEEPER DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR DOES TRY AND MAKE IT INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS MINIMAL MIXING TODAY AND
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OFF
THE NIGHT (JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS)...WILL REDEVELOP
SHALLOW STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY...STARTING TO SWITCH OUT OF THE
SW/WSW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 241402
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO AN INVERSION PRESENT WHICH WILL SERVE TO LOCK THIS LOW CLOUD
IN PLACE...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME DEEPER DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR DOES TRY AND MAKE IT INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS MINIMAL MIXING TODAY AND
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OFF
THE NIGHT (JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS)...WILL REDEVELOP
SHALLOW STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY...STARTING TO SWITCH OUT OF THE
SW/WSW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 241041
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...MVFR MOST OF THE DAY...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. THERE IS
ALSO AN INVERSION PRESENT WHICH WILL SERVE TO LOCK THIS LOW CLOUD
IN PLACE...LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME DEEPER DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR DOES TRY AND MAKE IT INTO THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...AS MINIMAL MIXING TODAY AND
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING OFF
THE NIGHT (JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS)...WILL REDEVELOP
SHALLOW STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY...STARTING TO SWITCH OUT OF THE
SW/WSW AND INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 240705
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
305 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE.
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS.
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW
CLOUD.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING)
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER
AND WEAK UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL
MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON`T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR
DIRECTION.

LET`S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE`LL LEAVE IT AT
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT
MBL/TVC/PLN OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST
AT TIMES. SOME -DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. APN WILL BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF
MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 240359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT
MBL/TVC/PLN OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST
AT TIMES. SOME -DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. APN WILL BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF
MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 240359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING
WILL BE MORE STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT
MBL/TVC/PLN OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD NOT PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST
AT TIMES. SOME -DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. APN WILL BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF
MVFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 240200
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT MBL/TVC/PLN
OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST AT TIMES. SOME
-DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. APN WILL
BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 240200
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUASI-WARM FRONT ADVANCING INTO NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MI...WITH A CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVANCING
SLOWLY NE-WARD. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F
WEST OF LAKE MI. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO OUTRUN
THIS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...CONTRIBUTING TO RADAR RETURNS BECOMING
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH SCT SHRA IN WESTERN SECTIONS DIMINISHING TO
SPRINKLES OR LESS BY THE TIME IT REACHES NE LOWER/FAR EASTERN
UPPER MI.

MEANWHILE...THE RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO THE WEST HAS A
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD MASS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. THIS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST DRIZZLE
CHANCES OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW/N CENTRAL
LOWER. HAVE REMOVED DZ FROM NE LOWER NEAR LAKE HURON...MOISTURE
JUST TAKES TOO LONG TO GET THERE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW SOME
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED DRYING AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL INHIBIT DZ.

IN THE MEANTIME...NE LOWER IS STILL MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS HAVE
PLUNGED TO NEAR FREEZING. READINGS WON/T GET THE CHANCE TO DROP
TOO MUCH FURTHER BEFORE SOME TATTERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STABILIZES
AND EVENTUALLY BOOSTS TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT MBL/TVC/PLN
OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST AT TIMES. SOME
-DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. APN WILL
BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 232332
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
732 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SEEN BACK IN WI THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE
STUBBORN. EXPECT A LOW-END MVFR CLOUD DECK TO IMPACT MBL/TVC/PLN
OVERNIGHT...AND WOULD PRECLUDE IFR CIGS AT LEAST AT TIMES. SOME
-DZ/BR AND ASSOCIATED VSBY RESTRICTION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. APN WILL
BE BETTER OFF...WITH CIGS AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...AND JUST A TOUCH OF A SW TO S BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231943
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231943
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...KINDA FOGGY...DRIZZLY AND CLOUDY...

CURLEY CUE LOOKING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY (FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA) WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LEAN AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE (THOUGH
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE IN DOUBT). THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING (REGIONAL
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN) BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS/GETS
STRETCHED OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START. A QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FOG...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVERVIEW: FOUR WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY WITH
TROUGHINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ALTHOUGH PESKY CUTOFF LOW AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE NE. SO...RATHER STORMY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
MILDER AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ADVANCING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
WITH A STRUNG OUT FRONT AND SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/FORECAST: OVERALL HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COUPLE WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A BIT OF A RECONFIGURATION LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER BATCH
OF COLD AIR SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AND
THE `OLE LONG WAVE TROUGH RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NOAM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL A WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR GETTING DOWN INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEAK-ISH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST TODAY
LOOKING TO SPLIT/SHEAR...WITH ONE PIECE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE
DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF IN THE ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER PIECE TRAVELS UP
INTO CANADA. NOT A LOT LEFT IN BETWEEN AS STRETCHED OUT FRONT/TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...RUNNING
INTO DRY AIR AND A STRONG...UNYIELDING SFC RIDGE AXIS. THUS...
EXPECTING VERY LITTLE WITH THIS SYSTEM PRECIP-WISE. BUT...THERE IS
EXTENSIVE LOW-MID CLOUDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FROM A
DRIZZLE STANDPOINT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONGER PIECE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN
THE PAC NW TODAY TRAVELS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ SRN CANADA
BORDER BEFORE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ATTENDING COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER-WISE...ONCE AGAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE BATTLING FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. SO...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE FAR
NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CLOUDS AND TEMPS...DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNDAY...CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPS MAY REMAIN AN
ISSUE. FIRST BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
GUIDANCE RH FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A COMMON AND PERSISTENT IDEA AMONG
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES AND HAVE THUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THINNING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING COOLER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO DEEPER
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE CONUS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION (H8 TEMPS -2C TO -4C) BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND BEST
CHANCES COMING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT/UPPER LOW ADVANCE
THROUGH THE REGION. DRIES BACK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH CHILLY TEMPS WILL LINGER. THEN...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HINT AT A BIG PLUNGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH H8 TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN DOUBLE DIGIT
NEGATIVE TERRITORY. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AND
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS EVOLVE. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS/WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER NW WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231559
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VERY TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS
RATHER TOUGH AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW AS IT IS
TRAPPED BELOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. GENERAL TREND IS FOR
CONTINUED SLOW EROSION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAD TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO START. DID KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND ONLY SHALLOW MIXING
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231559
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VERY TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TODAY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS
RATHER TOUGH AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW AS IT IS
TRAPPED BELOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. GENERAL TREND IS FOR
CONTINUED SLOW EROSION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAD TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO START. DID KNOCK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND ONLY SHALLOW MIXING
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 231048
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
648 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND STRATUS ROAMING THE AREA...

SFC RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SHALLOW SFC GROUND FOG AND
STRATUS FOR MUCH OF NE LOWER...WHICH IS GONE FROM APN...BUT STILL
IN THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY AND
SHALLOW STRATUS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAPPENS TO BE NEAR/AT THE
AIRPORTS...WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND
LOTS OF SUN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEEPEN TO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES...THEN ULTIMATELY SUB 1KFT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AOB 10KTS...THEN VERY LIGHT
SOUTH/CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 230755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...A CHILLY START FOR SURE...

IMPACTS: REDUCED VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS SHALLOWING OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH IS MAKING WAY TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS SEEN ACROSS
MN/IA/KS/NE WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST -DIVQ WHICH
WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES. NOT MUCH LIQUID IN
THESE SHOWERS...AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WORKING INTO WHAT WAS A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. LATEST SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST/SHOW
POTENTIALLY TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...EACH
SHOWING A CONGEALED AREA OF SHOWERS. THESE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY
WORKING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...ONE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE
NORTH...PER SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHEARING OUT
WITH TIME.

OVER NRN MICHIGAN...THE DEEPEST OF DRY AIR IS OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER AND SFC RIDGES. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO SOME
SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS WAS MAINLY ONGOING ACROSS
NE LOWER...WHERE YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LINGERING
STRATUS DECK...SURPRISINGLY WELL INTO THE DAY YESTERDAY. THIS KEPT
SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT...AND HENCE THE STRATUS/FOG.
SOME VISIBILITIES WERE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WERE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWEST LYING AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

NOTHING TO CRAZY IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WE WILL
HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE REGION. THE
TWO SUGGESTED SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON
DIFFERENT TRACKS. ONE...LIFTING ENE INTO ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING...WHILE PUSHING INTO OUR VERY DRY AIR MASS. THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF COVERAGE AS WE SEE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM.
FORCING AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING IN NW LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER...AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE I75 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO. BEHIND THAT...AND VERIFIED BY UPSTREAM SFC OBS...A
PERIOD OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL LEAVE SKIES
CLOUDY IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LIKELY...WHICH
WILL LAST FOR A BIT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SKIES WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ALL CLOUDY. PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE LOWER
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THESE TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB AFTER THAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWER LOWER 30S IN NE LOWER...TO
THE UPPER 30S AND AROUND 40F WEST OF I-75 (WHERE CLOUDS WILL ALREADY
BE BY THIS EVENING).

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...WET WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: HOW DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, NOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE 500 MB FLOW. THIS IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

(10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB
FLOW SPLIT, WITH THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION SO THAT THERE IS STRONG
CHANCE THAT WE`LL HAVE PATCH DRIZZLE AT 12Z. IT LOOKS LIKE BY
SOUNDINGS THAT THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT. SO KEPT THE DRIZZLE IN
THROUGH 15Z, AND THEN WITH THE THINNING MOISTURE, STOP THE DRIZZLE
AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT UP WITH THE MIXING IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THE MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER STAYS NORTH OF THE
STRAITS, THIS LEAVES MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AT 850 MB AND
BELOW A LITTLE THIN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH OVERNIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NE LOWER.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS PRETTY SMALL.
CONTEMPLATED TAKING THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THERE, BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE SMALL CHANCE WE HAVE FOR NOW.

(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LE RAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 0C TO -2C IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.
THEN TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DRY
WEATHER, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE INTO A CHILLY DAMP NIGHT IN NW LOWER
IF THE MODELS TREND MORE THIS WAY.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...(10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY AS THE SFC HIGH FORCES THE
MOISTURE EAST AGAIN AND ALLOWING THE 850 MB AND SFC TEMPERATURES TO
RISE. (10/27)MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
ONSET OF TH RAIN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER, AND A FLATTER RIDGE
AT 500 MB. THE ECWMF IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, SO THINK THAT IT
MAY BE ONTO THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THE SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
(10/28)TUESDAY...THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY NOW, BUT THE GFS
STILL WRAPS THE SFC LOW PRETTY TIGHT. AM BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE
THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS WITH ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION IT FORMS, AND THE MUCH DEEPER LOW. THIS WOULD
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
(10/29)WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BOTH MODELS HAVE RAIN FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND NOT SIDE WITH HOW WE
GET TO THIS POINT UNTIL THERE ARE FEW MORE RUNS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER...AND THOSE
AREAS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AIRPORTS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE BLO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO
CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY THE WEEKEND...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A DECAYING SFC TROUGH ARRIVES TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THIS TIME...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRING
POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. COLD AIR POURING
IN SATURDAY VIA A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 230527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PLANTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRESENT FEW WEATHER
CHALLENGES...BUT NOT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS
HAVE BEEN VERY PESKY TODAY DESPITE LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRYING
FROM ALOFT.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY COME AROUND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE NOT MIXING OUT
WELL THIS AFTERNOON /SOUTHEAST AREAS/ HAVE GROWING CONCERN THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.  HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR
MODEL SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE AS COLD IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SFC DWPTS ARE HIGHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STRATUS EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DRY THURSDAY/SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/BREEZY SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A COUPLE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC BASIN (AND THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "ANA"
DRIFTING NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HAWAII) GIVE WAY TO A MORE
"CHOPPY" PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1035MB CENTER OVER QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS.  VERY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES APART FROM A VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAKE-INFLUENCED
MOIST LAYER...WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT.

PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT FALLS PASSING NEAR
OR NORTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  THIS
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): UNFORTUNATELY...WHAT HAD
YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE A PROMISING PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO NOT LOOK SO OUTSTANDING.  CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
TO START FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON THURSDAY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE ONE OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE
RELATIVE LACK OF MIXING ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS SHARED BY THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
DESKS THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR FOG
FORMATION...GIVEN THE THEORY THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF CLOUD DECK
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER AT SUNSET WILL SIMPLY EXPAND AGAIN
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT AND GET PULLED BACK NORTH WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WITHIN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S AND UNLIKELY TO DROP MUCH
UNLESS CLOUDS THIN QUICKLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SO SUSPECT THAT
SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL END UP BEING AN ISSUE FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR NOW GIVEN
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION.  MEANWHILE...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...SPREADING IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS TO EVALUATE LOW QPF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.  EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WOULD DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT RECENT TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SO WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  WILL TEND
TOWARD PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND TWEAK
FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A BIT.  ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK THAT ORIGINALLY WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOW WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECENT QG SUPPORT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMETHING OF A CONCERN AND
ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY.  SO THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (A CONSENSUS APPROACH) WILL
SUFFICE TO GET THE TREND IN THE FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE...JET STREAK/HEIGHT
FALLS AS MENTIONED ABOVE TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THAN EARLIER FORECAST TRENDS SUGGESTED.  STILL SOME
POTENTIAL I SUPPOSE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY...A LITTLE SLOWER TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER RUNS SO MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON
WHETHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SPLITS OR
REMAINS IN ONE PIECE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER...AND THOSE
AREAS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AIRPORTS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE BLO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO
CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF
HARRISVILLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KAPX 222300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PLANTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRESENT FEW WEATHER
CHALLENGES...BUT NOT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS
HAVE BEEN VERY PESKY TODAY DESPITE LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRYING
FROM ALOFT.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY COME AROUND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE NOT MIXING OUT
WELL THIS AFTERNOON /SOUTHEAST AREAS/ HAVE GROWING CONCERN THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.  HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR
MODEL SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE AS COLD IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SFC DWPTS ARE HIGHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STRATUS EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DRY THURSDAY/SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/BREEZY SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A COUPLE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC BASIN (AND THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "ANA"
DRIFTING NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HAWAII) GIVE WAY TO A MORE
"CHOPPY" PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1035MB CENTER OVER QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS.  VERY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES APART FROM A VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAKE-INFLUENCED
MOIST LAYER...WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT.

PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT FALLS PASSING NEAR
OR NORTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  THIS
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): UNFORTUNATELY...WHAT HAD
YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE A PROMISING PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO NOT LOOK SO OUTSTANDING.  CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
TO START FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON THURSDAY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE ONE OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE
RELATIVE LACK OF MIXING ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS SHARED BY THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
DESKS THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR FOG
FORMATION...GIVEN THE THEORY THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF CLOUD DECK
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER AT SUNSET WILL SIMPLY EXPAND AGAIN
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT AND GET PULLED BACK NORTH WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WITHIN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S AND UNLIKELY TO DROP MUCH
UNLESS CLOUDS THIN QUICKLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SO SUSPECT THAT
SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL END UP BEING AN ISSUE FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR NOW GIVEN
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION.  MEANWHILE...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...SPREADING IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS TO EVALUATE LOW QPF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.  EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WOULD DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT RECENT TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SO WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  WILL TEND
TOWARD PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND TWEAK
FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A BIT.  ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK THAT ORIGINALLY WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOW WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECENT QG SUPPORT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMETHING OF A CONCERN AND
ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY.  SO THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (A CONSENSUS APPROACH) WILL
SUFFICE TO GET THE TREND IN THE FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE...JET STREAK/HEIGHT
FALLS AS MENTIONED ABOVE TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THAN EARLIER FORECAST TRENDS SUGGESTED.  STILL SOME
POTENTIAL I SUPPOSE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY...A LITTLE SLOWER TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER RUNS SO MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON
WHETHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SPLITS OR
REMAINS IN ONE PIECE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE
BLO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF
HARRISVILLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KAPX 222300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PLANTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRESENT FEW WEATHER
CHALLENGES...BUT NOT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS
HAVE BEEN VERY PESKY TODAY DESPITE LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRYING
FROM ALOFT.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY COME AROUND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE NOT MIXING OUT
WELL THIS AFTERNOON /SOUTHEAST AREAS/ HAVE GROWING CONCERN THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.  HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR
MODEL SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE AS COLD IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SFC DWPTS ARE HIGHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STRATUS EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DRY THURSDAY/SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/BREEZY SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A COUPLE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC BASIN (AND THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "ANA"
DRIFTING NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HAWAII) GIVE WAY TO A MORE
"CHOPPY" PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1035MB CENTER OVER QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS.  VERY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES APART FROM A VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAKE-INFLUENCED
MOIST LAYER...WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT.

PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT FALLS PASSING NEAR
OR NORTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  THIS
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): UNFORTUNATELY...WHAT HAD
YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE A PROMISING PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO NOT LOOK SO OUTSTANDING.  CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
TO START FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON THURSDAY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE ONE OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE
RELATIVE LACK OF MIXING ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS SHARED BY THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
DESKS THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR FOG
FORMATION...GIVEN THE THEORY THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF CLOUD DECK
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER AT SUNSET WILL SIMPLY EXPAND AGAIN
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT AND GET PULLED BACK NORTH WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WITHIN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S AND UNLIKELY TO DROP MUCH
UNLESS CLOUDS THIN QUICKLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SO SUSPECT THAT
SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL END UP BEING AN ISSUE FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR NOW GIVEN
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION.  MEANWHILE...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...SPREADING IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS TO EVALUATE LOW QPF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.  EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WOULD DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT RECENT TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SO WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  WILL TEND
TOWARD PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND TWEAK
FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A BIT.  ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK THAT ORIGINALLY WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOW WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECENT QG SUPPORT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMETHING OF A CONCERN AND
ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY.  SO THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (A CONSENSUS APPROACH) WILL
SUFFICE TO GET THE TREND IN THE FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE...JET STREAK/HEIGHT
FALLS AS MENTIONED ABOVE TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THAN EARLIER FORECAST TRENDS SUGGESTED.  STILL SOME
POTENTIAL I SUPPOSE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY...A LITTLE SLOWER TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER RUNS SO MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON
WHETHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SPLITS OR
REMAINS IN ONE PIECE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE
BLO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF
HARRISVILLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JK








000
FXUS63 KAPX 222010
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PLANTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRESENT FEW WEATHER
CHALLENGES...BUT NOT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS
HAVE BEEN VERY PESKY TODAY DESPITE LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRYING
FROM ALOFT.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY COME AROUND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE NOT MIXING OUT
WELL THIS AFTERNOON /SOUTHEAST AREAS/ HAVE GROWING CONCERN THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.  HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR
MODEL SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE AS COLD IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SFC DWPTS ARE HIGHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STRATUS EXISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DRY THURSDAY/SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/BREEZY SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A COUPLE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC BASIN (AND THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "ANA"
DRIFTING NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HAWAII) GIVE WAY TO A MORE
"CHOPPY" PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1035MB CENTER OVER QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS.  VERY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES APART FROM A VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAKE-INFLUENCED
MOIST LAYER...WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT.

PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT FALLS PASSING NEAR
OR NORTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  THIS
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): UNFORTUNATELY...WHAT HAD
YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE A PROMISING PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO NOT LOOK SO OUTSTANDING.  CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
TO START FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON THURSDAY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE ONE OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE
RELATIVE LACK OF MIXING ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS SHARED BY THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
DESKS THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR FOG
FORMATION...GIVEN THE THEORY THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF CLOUD DECK
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER AT SUNSET WILL SIMPLY EXPAND AGAIN
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT AND GET PULLED BACK NORTH WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WITHIN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S AND UNLIKELY TO DROP MUCH
UNLESS CLOUDS THIN QUICKLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SO SUSPECT THAT
SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL END UP BEING AN ISSUE FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR NOW GIVEN
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION.  MEANWHILE...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...SPREADING IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS TO EVALUATE LOW QPF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.  EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WOULD DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT RECENT TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SO WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  WILL TEND
TOWARD PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND TWEAK
FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A BIT.  ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK THAT ORIGINALLY WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOW WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECENT QG SUPPORT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMETHING OF A CONCERN AND
ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY.  SO THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (A CONSENSUS APPROACH) WILL
SUFFICE TO GET THE TREND IN THE FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE...JET STREAK/HEIGHT
FALLS AS MENTIONED ABOVE TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THAN EARLIER FORECAST TRENDS SUGGESTED.  STILL SOME
POTENTIAL I SUPPOSE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY...A LITTLE SLOWER TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER RUNS SO MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON
WHETHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SPLITS OR
REMAINS IN ONE PIECE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF MVFR CIGS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NONE OF IT DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THIS LOWER CLOUD LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF
HARRISVILLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...JK







000
FXUS63 KAPX 221708
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
108 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE /SLOWLY/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TO LOWER READINGS IN SOME
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...QUIET FALL WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WILL THE CLOUDS EVER GO AWAY? EVENTUALLY THIS AFTERNOON...YES. BUT
IT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. SLOWLY WARMING 925-850MB TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS BACKING A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WILL HELP TO
ERODE THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.
GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. WILL ADJUST HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL IMPEDE THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RISE. MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOLDING OVER THE TOP OF A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LEAVES NRN MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE FRONT END OF THE DEEPEST DRIEST AIR
IN THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB
PER THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAKENING NE/ENE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...RESULTING IN THIN STRATUS...WHICH IS
EXPANDING INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
HURON...IN THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES. NOW...TEMPS ARE RISING BACK UP
INTO THE 30S UNDER CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOSED LOW DOES NOT BUDGE...AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST...WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP DRY
AIR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME STRATUS
AROUND THE STRAITS AND EAST OF US 131 TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LEADING TO NO LAKE PROCESSES...AND RATHER A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO
MID 20S MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEEKEND/WET WEEK START...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DOES IT RAIN ANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT? HOW
DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO N ROCKIES/N
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO THAT WE END UP WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.

(10/23)THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC WITH THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND (10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SPLIT IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF STILL IS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE ENERGY, AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS. SO HAVE CUT THE POPS AND JUST PUT SPRINKLES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR THE RAIN TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE. DRY WEATHER. (10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. (10/27)MONDAY...THE MODELS
ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES TO HOW THE RAIN STARTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
BECOMING LIKELY, LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. (10/28)TUESDAY...THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE GFS. BY THE
AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ON THE GFS STOPPING THE RAIN. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVES UP THE FRONT BEFORE MOVING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF MVFR CIGS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NONE OF IT DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THIS LOWER CLOUD
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES (AFTER SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON). NO
REAL WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE AFFECTING MARINE WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 221708
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
108 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE /SLOWLY/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LOWER. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TO LOWER READINGS IN SOME
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...QUIET FALL WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WILL THE CLOUDS EVER GO AWAY? EVENTUALLY THIS AFTERNOON...YES. BUT
IT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. SLOWLY WARMING 925-850MB TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS BACKING A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WILL HELP TO
ERODE THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.
GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. WILL ADJUST HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL IMPEDE THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RISE. MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOLDING OVER THE TOP OF A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LEAVES NRN MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE FRONT END OF THE DEEPEST DRIEST AIR
IN THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB
PER THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAKENING NE/ENE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...RESULTING IN THIN STRATUS...WHICH IS
EXPANDING INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
HURON...IN THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES. NOW...TEMPS ARE RISING BACK UP
INTO THE 30S UNDER CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOSED LOW DOES NOT BUDGE...AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST...WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP DRY
AIR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME STRATUS
AROUND THE STRAITS AND EAST OF US 131 TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LEADING TO NO LAKE PROCESSES...AND RATHER A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO
MID 20S MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEEKEND/WET WEEK START...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DOES IT RAIN ANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT? HOW
DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO N ROCKIES/N
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO THAT WE END UP WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.

(10/23)THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC WITH THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND (10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SPLIT IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF STILL IS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE ENERGY, AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS. SO HAVE CUT THE POPS AND JUST PUT SPRINKLES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR THE RAIN TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE. DRY WEATHER. (10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. (10/27)MONDAY...THE MODELS
ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES TO HOW THE RAIN STARTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
BECOMING LIKELY, LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. (10/28)TUESDAY...THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE GFS. BY THE
AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ON THE GFS STOPPING THE RAIN. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVES UP THE FRONT BEFORE MOVING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. DECREASING AMOUNTS OF MVFR CIGS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NONE OF IT DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THIS LOWER CLOUD
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES (AFTER SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON). NO
REAL WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE AFFECTING MARINE WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 221417
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WILL THE CLOUDS EVER GO AWAY? EVENTUALLY THIS AFTERNOON...YES. BUT
IT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. SLOWLY WARMING 925-850MB TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS BACKING A BIT MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME WILL HELP TO
ERODE THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE OVER EASTERN UPPER AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.
GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. WILL ADJUST HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL IMPEDE THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RISE. MOST AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOLDING OVER THE TOP OF A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LEAVES NRN MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE FRONT END OF THE DEEPEST DRIEST AIR
IN THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB
PER THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAKENING NE/ENE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...RESULTING IN THIN STRATUS...WHICH IS
EXPANDING INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
HURON...IN THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES. NOW...TEMPS ARE RISING BACK UP
INTO THE 30S UNDER CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOSED LOW DOES NOT BUDGE...AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST...WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP DRY
AIR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME STRATUS
AROUND THE STRAITS AND EAST OF US 131 TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LEADING TO NO LAKE PROCESSES...AND RATHER A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO
MID 20S MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEEKEND/WET WEEK START...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DOES IT RAIN ANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT? HOW
DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO N ROCKIES/N
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO THAT WE END UP WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.

(10/23)THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC WITH THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND (10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SPLIT IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF STILL IS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE ENERGY, AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS. SO HAVE CUT THE POPS AND JUST PUT SPRINKLES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR THE RAIN TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE. DRY WEATHER. (10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. (10/27)MONDAY...THE MODELS
ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES TO HOW THE RAIN STARTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
BECOMING LIKELY, LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. (10/28)TUESDAY...THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE GFS. BY THE
AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ON THE GFS STOPPING THE RAIN. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVES UP THE FRONT BEFORE MOVING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...MVFR CIGS FOR APN AND PLN THROUGH DAYBREAK...

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MIXING OUT LAKE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...WEAKENING BL NE WINDS HAVE VEER MORE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND STRATUS HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD OFF LAKE HURON INTO
PLN/APN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF TVC/MBL. THIS STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING DESPITE INVERSION PRESENT
(WHICH ALSO HELPED DEVELOP THE STRATUS). ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY
ENTRENCHED IN DEEP DRY AIR...WHICH WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AIRPORTS RATHER QUICKLY. THE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES (AFTER SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON). NO
REAL WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE AFFECTING MARINE WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD









000
FXUS63 KAPX 221057
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOLDING OVER THE TOP OF A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LEAVES NRN MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE FRONT END OF THE DEEPEST DRIEST AIR
IN THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB
PER THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAKENING NE/ENE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...RESULTING IN THIN STRATUS...WHICH IS
EXPANDING INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
HURON...IN THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES. NOW...TEMPS ARE RISING BACK UP
INTO THE 30S UNDER CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOSED LOW DOES NOT BUDGE...AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST...WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP DRY
AIR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME STRATUS
AROUND THE STRAITS AND EAST OF US 131 TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LEADING TO NO LAKE PROCESSES...AND RATHER A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO
MID 20S MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEEKEND/WET WEEK START...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DOES IT RAIN ANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT? HOW
DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO N ROCKIES/N
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO THAT WE END UP WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.

(10/23)THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC WITH THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND (10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SPLIT IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF STILL IS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE ENERGY, AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS. SO HAVE CUT THE POPS AND JUST PUT SPRINKLES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR THE RAIN TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE. DRY WEATHER. (10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. (10/27)MONDAY...THE MODELS
ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES TO HOW THE RAIN STARTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
BECOMING LIKELY, LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. (10/28)TUESDAY...THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE GFS. BY THE
AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ON THE GFS STOPPING THE RAIN. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVES UP THE FRONT BEFORE MOVING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...MVFR CIGS FOR APN AND PLN THROUGH DAYBREAK...

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MIXING OUT LAKE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...WEAKENING BL NE WINDS HAVE VEER MORE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND STRATUS HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD OFF LAKE HURON INTO
PLN/APN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF TVC/MBL. THIS STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING DESPITE INVERSION PRESENT
(WHICH ALSO HELPED DEVELOP THE STRATUS). ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY
ENTRENCHED IN DEEP DRY AIR...WHICH WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AIRPORTS RATHER QUICKLY. THE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES (AFTER SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON). NO
REAL WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE AFFECTING MARINE WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 221057
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOLDING OVER THE TOP OF A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LEAVES NRN MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE FRONT END OF THE DEEPEST DRIEST AIR
IN THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB
PER THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAKENING NE/ENE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...RESULTING IN THIN STRATUS...WHICH IS
EXPANDING INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
HURON...IN THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES. NOW...TEMPS ARE RISING BACK UP
INTO THE 30S UNDER CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOSED LOW DOES NOT BUDGE...AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST...WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP DRY
AIR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME STRATUS
AROUND THE STRAITS AND EAST OF US 131 TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LEADING TO NO LAKE PROCESSES...AND RATHER A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO
MID 20S MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEEKEND/WET WEEK START...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DOES IT RAIN ANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT? HOW
DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO N ROCKIES/N
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO THAT WE END UP WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.

(10/23)THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC WITH THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND (10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SPLIT IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF STILL IS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE ENERGY, AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS. SO HAVE CUT THE POPS AND JUST PUT SPRINKLES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR THE RAIN TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE. DRY WEATHER. (10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. (10/27)MONDAY...THE MODELS
ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES TO HOW THE RAIN STARTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
BECOMING LIKELY, LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. (10/28)TUESDAY...THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE GFS. BY THE
AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ON THE GFS STOPPING THE RAIN. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVES UP THE FRONT BEFORE MOVING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...MVFR CIGS FOR APN AND PLN THROUGH DAYBREAK...

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING MIXING OUT LAKE AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...WEAKENING BL NE WINDS HAVE VEER MORE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND STRATUS HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD OFF LAKE HURON INTO
PLN/APN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF TVC/MBL. THIS STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING DESPITE INVERSION PRESENT
(WHICH ALSO HELPED DEVELOP THE STRATUS). ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY
ENTRENCHED IN DEEP DRY AIR...WHICH WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TO THE
AIRPORTS RATHER QUICKLY. THE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES (AFTER SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON). NO
REAL WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE AFFECTING MARINE WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 220744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FOLDING OVER THE TOP OF A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LEAVES NRN MICHIGAN WITHIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ON THE FRONT END OF THE DEEPEST DRIEST AIR
IN THE REGION. WE STILL HAVE A SHALLOW INVERSION JUST ABOVE 900MB
PER THE 00Z APX SOUNDING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAKENING NE/ENE WINDS OFF LAKE HURON TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...RESULTING IN THIN STRATUS...WHICH IS
EXPANDING INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
HURON...IN THE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES. NOW...TEMPS ARE RISING BACK UP
INTO THE 30S UNDER CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOSED LOW DOES NOT BUDGE...AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST...WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE DEEP DRY
AIR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WHILE WE MAY HAVE SOME STRATUS
AROUND THE STRAITS AND EAST OF US 131 TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...IT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
LEADING TO NO LAKE PROCESSES...AND RATHER A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO
MID 20S MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...QUIET WEEKEND/WET WEEK START...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DOES IT RAIN ANY ON THURSDAY NIGHT? HOW
DOES THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVE?

OVERVIEW...THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING THE CURRENTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE 500 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE PUSHING INTO N ROCKIES/N
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO THAT WE END UP WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A FEW DAYS OF WET WEATHER.

(10/23)THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AT THE
SFC WITH THE NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE BOUNDARY
WATERS REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND (10/24)FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SPLIT IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE ECMWF STILL IS SHUNTING THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE ENERGY, AND THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS. SO HAVE CUT THE POPS AND JUST PUT SPRINKLES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR THE RAIN TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...(10/25)SATURDAY...500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE. DRY WEATHER. (10/26)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. (10/27)MONDAY...THE MODELS
ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES TO HOW THE RAIN STARTS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS
BECOMING LIKELY, LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT. (10/28)TUESDAY...THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE GFS. BY THE
AFTERNOON A DRY SLOT MOVES IN ON THE GFS STOPPING THE RAIN. THE
ECMWF HOLDS THE RAIN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVES UP THE FRONT BEFORE MOVING EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCT/BKN LAKE-INDUCED LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE MIXING OUT BY MID MORNING. NW LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BLO 10 KTS FROM THE N/NE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...NO MARINE ISSUES FOR AWHILE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES (AFTER SOME STRATUS THIS MORNING OVER LAKE HURON). NO
REAL WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE AFFECTING MARINE WEATHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
ABOUT SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD








000
FXUS63 KAPX 220345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...A TOUCH CHILLY TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN
UNFOLDING AS ANTICIPATED...WITH DEEPENING EASTERN LAKES TROUGH
GETTING READY TO SPAWN EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE...ALL-THE-WHILE STOUT
CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING BEGINS ITS FOLDING PROCESS INTO THE NORTHWEST
LAKES. OVERHEAD HEIGHT REBOUND ALREADY NOTED...A PROCESS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING JUST AS IMPRESSIVE...WITH ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ONE CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY
AIR INVASION CONTINUES...AND THAT ALONE WOULD SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALL IS NOT THAT
SIMPLE. NO DOUBT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE APEX OF WHICH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UP INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT EAST FLOW ACROSS
LAKE HURON. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS IMPRESSIVE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENED AS H9-H6 LEVELS SLOWLY WARM. TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
INVERSION BASE (~H9 HEIGHT) STAY THE SAME OR EVEN COOL SLIGHTLY.
EXPECTED -2C READINGS AT THIS LEVEL MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO ENTICE
LAKE HURON MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION INTO THE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT.
NAM-WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...SHOWING ALMOST COMPLETE
SATURATION OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. PATTERN SUPPORTS SUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST...WITH BELIEF STRATUS DECK WILL
FORM AND SPREAD INTO INTERIOR AREAS LATER TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN
THOSE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES ALL DEPENDENT ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS.
READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S A SAFE BET IN CLEAR AREAS...WHILE
NORTHEAST LOWER IS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 30S. JUST ONE OF THOSE
TYPICAL OCTOBER NORTHERN MICHIGAN NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...HEADING INTO A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...FLANKED BY TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS DIVING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO MICHIGAN GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN
THIS HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO.  UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FROM 12Z SHOW VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER HUDSON BAY/FAR
NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES TO PUSH EAST AND "FOLD" OVER
THE TOP OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AS A RESULT.  GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN A BIT OF
A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND THE GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY (THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN FRIDAY).  ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THIS WEEKEND WITH
A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRETTY MINIMAL.  SOME CLOUD
COVER WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY): NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY SHALLOW BY
THAT POINT AND EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LEADING
TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE VALUES.  CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 20S/LOWER 30S.

WATCHING A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT TO START THE DAY LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE
IN A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THIS UPPER WAVE AND A STORM
SYSTEM SPINNING UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  BUT AS OF NOW
THURSDAY ITSELF SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH A FEW MORE
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S.  BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS A MORE ELONGATED/SHEARED WAVE SLOWLY
PUSHING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE
WHICH SPIN UP AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/
NORTHERN INDIANA.  A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST
HERE...THOUGH HEADING INTO FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SMALL UPPER LOW IDEA.  SMALL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY
WEST OF M-37 AND KEEPING THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY):  LOOKING PRETTY BENIGN FROM A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STANDPOINT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK WILL BE PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF MICHIGAN
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY.  SO AFTER A MONTH
WHERE IT HAS RAINED PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY (E.G., GAYM4 COOP HAS YET
TO RECORD A ZERO FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH)...WILL BE NICE
TO HAVE A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE PLAINS STATES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES.  RAIN THREAT LIKELY TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY MILD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCT/BKN LAKE-INDUCED LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE MIXING OUT BY MID MORNING. NW LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BLO 10 KTS FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT WILL TAKE
THEIR TIME DOING SO OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. WILL DROP INHERITED
SCA FOR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE EXTENDING THOSE ON LAKE HURON INTO THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 220345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...A TOUCH CHILLY TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN
UNFOLDING AS ANTICIPATED...WITH DEEPENING EASTERN LAKES TROUGH
GETTING READY TO SPAWN EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE...ALL-THE-WHILE STOUT
CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING BEGINS ITS FOLDING PROCESS INTO THE NORTHWEST
LAKES. OVERHEAD HEIGHT REBOUND ALREADY NOTED...A PROCESS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE REFLECTION OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING JUST AS IMPRESSIVE...WITH ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: ONE CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY
AIR INVASION CONTINUES...AND THAT ALONE WOULD SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. AS IS TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALL IS NOT THAT
SIMPLE. NO DOUBT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RULES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE APEX OF WHICH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN UP INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT EAST FLOW ACROSS
LAKE HURON. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS IMPRESSIVE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENED AS H9-H6 LEVELS SLOWLY WARM. TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
INVERSION BASE (~H9 HEIGHT) STAY THE SAME OR EVEN COOL SLIGHTLY.
EXPECTED -2C READINGS AT THIS LEVEL MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO ENTICE
LAKE HURON MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION INTO THE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT.
NAM-WRF MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...SHOWING ALMOST COMPLETE
SATURATION OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. PATTERN SUPPORTS SUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST...WITH BELIEF STRATUS DECK WILL
FORM AND SPREAD INTO INTERIOR AREAS LATER TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR IN
THOSE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES ALL DEPENDENT ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS.
READINGS WELL INTO THE 20S A SAFE BET IN CLEAR AREAS...WHILE
NORTHEAST LOWER IS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 30S. JUST ONE OF THOSE
TYPICAL OCTOBER NORTHERN MICHIGAN NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...HEADING INTO A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...FLANKED BY TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS DIVING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO MICHIGAN GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN
THIS HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO.  UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FROM 12Z SHOW VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER HUDSON BAY/FAR
NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES TO PUSH EAST AND "FOLD" OVER
THE TOP OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AS A RESULT.  GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN A BIT OF
A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND THE GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY (THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN FRIDAY).  ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION THIS WEEKEND WITH
A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRETTY MINIMAL.  SOME CLOUD
COVER WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY): NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE PRETTY SHALLOW BY
THAT POINT AND EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LEADING
TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE VALUES.  CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 20S/LOWER 30S.

WATCHING A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT TO START THE DAY LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE
IN A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THIS UPPER WAVE AND A STORM
SYSTEM SPINNING UP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  BUT AS OF NOW
THURSDAY ITSELF SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH A FEW MORE
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S.  BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS A MORE ELONGATED/SHEARED WAVE SLOWLY
PUSHING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE
WHICH SPIN UP AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/
NORTHERN INDIANA.  A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST
HERE...THOUGH HEADING INTO FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE FORECAST IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SMALL UPPER LOW IDEA.  SMALL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY
WEST OF M-37 AND KEEPING THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY):  LOOKING PRETTY BENIGN FROM A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STANDPOINT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK WILL BE PASSING NEAR/NORTH OF MICHIGAN
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY.  SO AFTER A MONTH
WHERE IT HAS RAINED PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY (E.G., GAYM4 COOP HAS YET
TO RECORD A ZERO FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH)...WILL BE NICE
TO HAVE A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY/TUESDAY): TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE PLAINS STATES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES.  RAIN THREAT LIKELY TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY MILD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCT/BKN LAKE-INDUCED LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH BACK INTO PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING...BEFORE MIXING OUT BY MID MORNING. NW LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BLO 10 KTS FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT WILL TAKE
THEIR TIME DOING SO OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. WILL DROP INHERITED
SCA FOR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE EXTENDING THOSE ON LAKE HURON INTO THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MSB








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