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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281530
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NO UPDATES NEEDED OR ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
RAMP UP AFTER 06Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...RESULTING IN
LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281530
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NO UPDATES NEEDED OR ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
RAMP UP AFTER 06Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...RESULTING IN
LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IN PLACE /PWATS < 0.1 INCHES/. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEAST EARLY...BACKING WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LINGERING LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
HURON COAST /SOUTH OF ALPENA/...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS THE FLOW
BACKS. OVERALL...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ONLY REAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW FAR WILL TEMPERATURES FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE?
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS...BELIEVE TEMPS
WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING /SINGLE DIGITS?/...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75 WHERE GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLATEAU AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
RAMP UP AFTER 06Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...RESULTING IN
LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 281052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IN PLACE /PWATS < 0.1 INCHES/. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEAST EARLY...BACKING WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LINGERING LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
HURON COAST /SOUTH OF ALPENA/...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS THE FLOW
BACKS. OVERALL...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ONLY REAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW FAR WILL TEMPERATURES FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE?
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS...BELIEVE TEMPS
WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING /SINGLE DIGITS?/...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75 WHERE GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLATEAU AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
RAMP UP AFTER 06Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...RESULTING IN
LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IN PLACE /PWATS < 0.1 INCHES/. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEAST EARLY...BACKING WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LINGERING LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
HURON COAST /SOUTH OF ALPENA/...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS THE FLOW
BACKS. OVERALL...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ONLY REAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW FAR WILL TEMPERATURES FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE?
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS...BELIEVE TEMPS
WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING /SINGLE DIGITS?/...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75 WHERE GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLATEAU AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
RAMP UP AFTER 06Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...RESULTING IN
LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281052
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IN PLACE /PWATS < 0.1 INCHES/. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEAST EARLY...BACKING WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LINGERING LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
HURON COAST /SOUTH OF ALPENA/...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS THE FLOW
BACKS. OVERALL...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ONLY REAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW FAR WILL TEMPERATURES FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE?
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS...BELIEVE TEMPS
WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING /SINGLE DIGITS?/...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75 WHERE GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLATEAU AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
RAMP UP AFTER 06Z ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...RESULTING IN
LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR IN PLACE /PWATS < 0.1 INCHES/. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEAST EARLY...BACKING WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME LINGERING LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
HURON COAST /SOUTH OF ALPENA/...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS THE FLOW
BACKS. OVERALL...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL...UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ONLY REAL CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW FAR WILL TEMPERATURES FALL DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE?
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS...BELIEVE TEMPS
WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING /SINGLE DIGITS?/...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-75 WHERE GRADIENT REMAINS SLACK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLATEAU AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A NASTY PERIOD OF
WINTRY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW (MIXED WITH RAIN INITIALLY?) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF WIND AHEAD OR AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH
TRAVEL ISSUES POSSIBLE AND A GOOD CHANCE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

WELL...SPRING IS THE SEASON FOR CHANGE AROUND THESE PARTS...AND
SUNDAY WILL LIVE UP TO THAT REPUTATION AS TODAY`S BENIGN (ALBEIT
CHILLY) CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY RATHER
NASTY WINTER WEATHER. THE CULPRIT IN ALL OF THIS MESS IS A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST - ONE WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE OTHER THROUGH CENTRAL ALBERTA TODAY...WITH THESE FEATURES
COMING TOGETHER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER SUNDAY TO DRIVE A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM
A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FEATURING STRONG AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE (INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG/DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT) ACTING ON AN AXIS OF 0.50+ PWAT VALUES WORKING OVERHEAD. ALL
THE WHILE...THE AMBIENT PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND QUITE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB COOLING ERASING ANY
EARLY EFFECTS OF A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIP DOESN`T ROLL IN
UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP A FEW TIMES
BEFORE AND HAVE NO DOUBT WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF (3-5) HOUR WINDOW
OF RATHER INTENSE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN UPPER AND RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW
OTHER AREAS. COUPLE THAT WITH SOME VERY GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND HIGH RATES OVERCOMING ANY
DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER
SLOPPY TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE
ANY HEADLINES JUST YET...BUT LOOKING LIKE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW FALLING IN A
FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW.

GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS POINT TO A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AXIS
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP FLARING UP ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ARRIVE.
COLD ADVECTION NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C AT WORST...BUT DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN MAY TRY TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. THROW IN CONTINUED QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...AND SLOPPY TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE.

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES EARLY LIKELY ERODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER RIDGING INCHES CLOSER AND WE VERY SLOWLY WARM THE THERMAL
REGIME. THAT QUIET LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER CHANNELED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING TOWARD THE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY
POOR (NOT SURPRISING GIVEN ITS SOURCE REGION). HONESTLY...NOT REALLY
SURE JUST HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE NOT UNTIL
MONDAY THAT WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR EXACT PLACEMENT...BUT
THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING WITH HINTS OF A STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEARBY. COUPLE THAT IDEA WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR STILL
AROUND AND IT`S NOT TOTALLY CRAZY TO THINK SOME PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. FOR
NOW...CHANCE POPS SHOULD DO THE TRICK AS WE AWAIT LATER TRENDS...
WITH OVERALL TEMPS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CLASSIC SPRING-TIME PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF
POTENTIAL FOR "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER. WILL BE WATCHING THE
EVOLUTION OF OUR MONDAY NIGHT SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW PENDING ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT WITH EYES
MORE FOCUSED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH STRONGER
STORM IMPACTING THE REGION. THE TREND APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A
STRONGER PIECE (OR PIECES) OF ENERGY TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND
HELP TRY TO DEVELOP STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. NOT SURPRISING IN SUCH A
COMPLEX SITUATION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW ANY
SURFACE CYCLONE EVOLVES.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A VERY
WARM DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST EQUAL
CHANCES OF A WARM FRONT SNAKING SOMEWHERE NEARBY AND REALLY LIMITING
THAT WARMTH POTENTIAL FOR A LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. A CONSENSUS
APPROACH PLACES A RATHER POTENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH (HAVE MY DOUBTS
FROM THE STRAITS ON NORTH GIVEN THE COLD LAKES). STILL...THIS PERIOD
DOES BEAR WATCHING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MAY WELL OFFER OUR FIRST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF THE SEASON. THAT WOULD BE A NICE CHANGE OF
PACE! WITH THAT SAID... WHATEVER WARMTH ARRIVES LOOKS QUITE
TRANSIENT...WITH STRONG SIGNALS THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS SUGGESTIVE OF
CONTINUED OVERALL TROUGHING MAINTAINING A PRESENCE THROUGHOUT THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN
10KTS. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING TVC/MBL. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z /OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD/ AT PLN-TVC-MBL AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280513
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
113 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TEMPS ON TRACK FOR NEAR RECORD COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL ADJUST A FEW READINGS LOWER
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT SEVERAL BELOW ZERO READINGS
BY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER AND AU SABLE VALLEY
IN NORTHERN LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN...AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
STAY WARM!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN
10KTS. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING TVC/MBL. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z /OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD/ AT PLN-TVC-MBL AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280513
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
113 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TEMPS ON TRACK FOR NEAR RECORD COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL ADJUST A FEW READINGS LOWER
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT SEVERAL BELOW ZERO READINGS
BY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER AND AU SABLE VALLEY
IN NORTHERN LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN...AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
STAY WARM!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN
10KTS. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING TVC/MBL. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z /OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD/ AT PLN-TVC-MBL AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280513
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
113 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TEMPS ON TRACK FOR NEAR RECORD COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL ADJUST A FEW READINGS LOWER
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT SEVERAL BELOW ZERO READINGS
BY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER AND AU SABLE VALLEY
IN NORTHERN LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN...AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
STAY WARM!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN
10KTS. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING TVC/MBL. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z /OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD/ AT PLN-TVC-MBL AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280513
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
113 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TEMPS ON TRACK FOR NEAR RECORD COLD READINGS OVERNIGHT UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL ADJUST A FEW READINGS LOWER
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT SEVERAL BELOW ZERO READINGS
BY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER AND AU SABLE VALLEY
IN NORTHERN LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN...AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
STAY WARM!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN
10KTS. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING TVC/MBL. LLWS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z /OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD/ AT PLN-TVC-MBL AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280227
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN...AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
STAY WARM!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280227
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN...AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
STAY WARM!

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271945
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
345 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...TROUGHING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR
EAST WHILE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IS BUILDING IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINGERING LAKE
BANDING ALONG THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. APX RADAR
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANY MORE. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND HOW
COLD IT WILL GET TONIGHT.

SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IN
COMBINATION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTORS THAT APPEAR TO PREVENT THE TOTAL
CRATERING OF TEMPERATURES ARE THE SHORTER NIGHTS AND THE LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
LOWER AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
ON THE CHILLY SIDE THIS EVENING SO WHEN WINDS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IT
WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET VERY COLD LOWS. AT THIS POINT WILL GO
WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WHERE ANY SNOW COVER REMAINS (PERHAPS
A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS AS WELL WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
FOR LOWS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. THE ONLY
RECORD LOW THAT LOOKS TO BE CLOSE IS -4 IN HOUGHTON LAKE WHICH WAS
SET WAY BACK IN 1926.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WINDY SUNDAY WITH A BURST OF SNOW FOR MOST...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.

PATTERN: PERSISTENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDES EAST...IN THE END
PROVIDING REINFORCEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TROUGH.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PROMISES A DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE WAVE ITSELF
BRINGING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY.

WEATHER:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH COLD/DRY /PWATS SUB 0.1/ DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  NORTH-
NORTHEAST LLEVEL FLOW TRAJECTORIES SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS ALONG MAINLY THE LAKE HURON COAST IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH WEAKENING/BACKING LLEVEL
FLOW SHOULD EVEN BRING AN END TO THESE...WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS.  THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND THE
START OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE.  1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY BY LATE
EVENING...WITH FULL COUPLING EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.  ALL IN ALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:  STRONG /~990 MB/ LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE.  THIS LOW WILL COAX AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LLEVEL
JET RESPONSE /50KTS AT H9 AND 60KTS AT H8/ THAT WILL TRANSPORT PWATS
OF 0.6" /TOP TENTH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INTO MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MODEST
WITH FAST MOVING...DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE AT H5 PROVIDING A
MODEST BULLSEYE OF QG FORCING WITH WEAK SUPPORT AT JET STREAM LEVEL
/85KT JET STREAK DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION/.  WITH DECENT
MOISTURE/FORCING...FULLY EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...BEGINNING OVER CHIP/MACK NEAR OR JUST
AFTERNOON...AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ANTECEDENT PROFILES ARE COOL/DRY
WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NO MORE THAN ABOUT +1C THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  EXPECT THAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AFTER PERHAPS A FEW
INITIAL RAIN DROPS...THAT MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL COME AS SNOW AS
EVAPORATIONAL/MELTING INDUCED COOLING BRINGS THE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST OF US-131 AND ALONG THE
LAKE HURON COAST SOUTH OF APN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR SOME MIX WITH RAIN.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...WITH NO MORE THAN A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  THIS...AND WANING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME PEELS EAST SHOULD LIMIT QPF TO 0.1-0.3".  SNOW RATIOS WON/T BE
TERRIFIC /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON COASTS/...BUT A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE...ESP OVER EASTERN UPPER AND
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  EVENING TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE SLICK
FOR A TIME.  THE OTHER BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS.  AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...H9 WINDS OF 50KTS DEFINITELY GET YOUR
ATTENTION...AND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  THIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALL GRADIENT-DRIVEN WITH LITTLE ISALLOBARIC
ASSISTANCE...BUT IS IMPRESSIVE NONETHELESS.  SEE NO REASON WHY WE
WON/T BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT SOME 35-40KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THAT THIS BRUSHES OUR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WILL BEEF UP MENTION OF THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...THE LLEVLS
ACTUALLY STABILIZE SOME...SO...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE
EVENING...EXPECT WINDS MORE IN THE 10G20-25 MPH RANGE WHILE IT/S
SNOWING.  MESSY NONETHELESS.

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MEAGER TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITH T8S DROPPING 1-2C OVERNIGHT...BUT
REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  THESE TEMPERATURES DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH POST-FRONTAL LAKE ASSISTANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW /AND UNSTABLE PROFILES/ IN THE
PRESENCE OF LINGERING H8-7 MOISTURE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHSN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COLD
ADVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/15G25MPH/.  QUIETER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  LLEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN...BUT COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES: T9S AROUND -7C YIELD HIGHS AROUND 30F WITH MIXING
LIMITED ABOVE THIS LEVEL GIVEN NEARBY SURFACE HIGH.  LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING LLEVEL
GRADIENT KEEPING CONDITIONS COUPLED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT AS
IS ALL TO COMMON AROUND HERE...COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CALM WINDS
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE
TEENS /PERHAPS EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW OF THE COLDER
SPOTS IN NE LOWER/ BEFORE RISING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY/S TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TRICKY WITH ANY "WARMTH" ALOFT
COINCIDING WITH PRECIPITATION...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AS T9S CLIMB TOWARDS 0C...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO 29-33 AFTER
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  CLOUDS...WIND AND ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.  BETTER MIXING AND T8S AROUND -9C ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
BACK TO AROUND TO 40F MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST (+PNA)
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BECOME A LITTLE FLATTER IN THE
MEAN THIS WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ROLLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS MORE PACIFIC-
DOMINANT PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS
TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

A TREND TOWARD HEIGHT RISES DURING MIDWEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY THOUGH EVOLUTION OF THIS
IDEA (TIMING/NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INVOLVED) IS STILL VERY
MUCH IN FLUX.  ONE OF THE UPSHOTS OF THESE POTENTIAL FORECAST
DIFFERENCES IS WHETHER ANOTHER ROUND OF POLAR AIR IS ALLOWED TO
SWEEP INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND (ADVERTISED BY THE GFS)...NOT
A TERRIBLE IDEA AS AMPLIFIED MJO SWINGS AROUND INTO THE COLD PHASES 2
AND 3 ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM CPC ANALOGS.

FORECAST TRENDS: LITTLE CLIPPER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.  WILL TREND THINGS DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY
(AND WARMER) BEFORE RAMPING PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.  IF THE TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST BY THE GFS IS CORRECT...PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE MEANTIME...LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
APN AND POSSIBLY TVC. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SHORELINES...BUT DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIMIT/SQUASH ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE MEANTIME...LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
APN AND POSSIBLY TVC. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SHORELINES...BUT DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIMIT/SQUASH ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE MEANTIME...LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
APN AND POSSIBLY TVC. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SHORELINES...BUT DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIMIT/SQUASH ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE MEANTIME...LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
APN AND POSSIBLY TVC. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SHORELINES...BUT DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIMIT/SQUASH ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IN THE MEANTIME...LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT
APN AND POSSIBLY TVC. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1149 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SHORELINES...BUT DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIMIT/SQUASH ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT APN THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1149 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SHORELINES...BUT DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIMIT/SQUASH ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT APN THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271038
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISCECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT APN THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271038
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISCECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT APN THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270505
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ATTM WITH LAST PUSH
OF LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND
SNOWSHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. A BIT OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
IN NORTH FLOW AREAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS
IS QUITE DRY AND WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST OUR OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS WE BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS TARGETING NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF
FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. SOME POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WELL
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270505
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ATTM WITH LAST PUSH
OF LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND
SNOWSHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. A BIT OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
IN NORTH FLOW AREAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS
IS QUITE DRY AND WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST OUR OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS WE BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS TARGETING NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF
FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. SOME POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WELL
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270505
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ATTM WITH LAST PUSH
OF LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND
SNOWSHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. A BIT OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
IN NORTH FLOW AREAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS
IS QUITE DRY AND WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST OUR OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS WE BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS TARGETING NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF
FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. SOME POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WELL
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270505
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ATTM WITH LAST PUSH
OF LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND
SNOWSHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. A BIT OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
IN NORTH FLOW AREAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS
IS QUITE DRY AND WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST OUR OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS WE BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS TARGETING NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF
FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. SOME POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WELL
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270243
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST OUR OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS WE BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS TARGETING NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF
FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. SOME POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WELL
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED WAVE SLIDES THRU THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270243
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST OUR OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS WE BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS TARGETING NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF
FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. SOME POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WELL
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED WAVE SLIDES THRU THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED WAVE SLIDES THRU THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED WAVE SLIDES THRU THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED WAVE SLIDES THRU THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWERS AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED WAVE SLIDES THRU THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) ON FRIDAY...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261952
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR AND IT NOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT MAY FOLLOW FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TVC AND PLN
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT APN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MBL WILL LIKELY STAY
OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT (APN AND TVC MAY AS WELL). CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CONTINUING TO VEER FROM
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261952
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR AND IT NOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT MAY FOLLOW FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TVC AND PLN
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT APN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MBL WILL LIKELY STAY
OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT (APN AND TVC MAY AS WELL). CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CONTINUING TO VEER FROM
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261952
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR AND IT NOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT MAY FOLLOW FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TVC AND PLN
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT APN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MBL WILL LIKELY STAY
OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT (APN AND TVC MAY AS WELL). CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CONTINUING TO VEER FROM
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261952
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR
MASS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE
COMMON.

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR AND IT NOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT MAY FOLLOW FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TVC AND PLN
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT APN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MBL WILL LIKELY STAY
OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT (APN AND TVC MAY AS WELL). CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CONTINUING TO VEER FROM
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261807
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
207 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND APX RADAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (AS ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DWINDLE). AM NOT A BIG SUPPORTER OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SUN ANGLE (LOTS OF IR SOLAR
INSOLATION MAKING IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS). THEREFORE...HAVE NIXED
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ALLOWED FOR A COUPLE OF
TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR AND IT NOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT MAY FOLLOW FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TVC AND PLN
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT APN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MBL WILL LIKELY STAY
OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT (APN AND TVC MAY AS WELL). CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CONTINUING TO VEER FROM
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261807
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
207 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND APX RADAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (AS ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DWINDLE). AM NOT A BIG SUPPORTER OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SUN ANGLE (LOTS OF IR SOLAR
INSOLATION MAKING IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS). THEREFORE...HAVE NIXED
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ALLOWED FOR A COUPLE OF
TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR AND IT NOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT MAY FOLLOW FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TVC AND PLN
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT APN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MBL WILL LIKELY STAY
OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT (APN AND TVC MAY AS WELL). CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CONTINUING TO VEER FROM
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261807
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
207 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND APX RADAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (AS ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DWINDLE). AM NOT A BIG SUPPORTER OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SUN ANGLE (LOTS OF IR SOLAR
INSOLATION MAKING IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS). THEREFORE...HAVE NIXED
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ALLOWED FOR A COUPLE OF
TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR AND IT NOW
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE
EFFECT MAY FOLLOW FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
MADE FOR A TOUGH FORECAST. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TVC AND PLN
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT APN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. MBL WILL LIKELY STAY
OUT OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE
EFFECT LATER TONIGHT (APN AND TVC MAY AS WELL). CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...CONTINUING TO VEER FROM
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1129 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND APX RADAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (AS ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DWINDLE). AM NOT A BIG SUPPORTER OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SUN ANGLE (LOTS OF IR SOLAR
INSOLATION MAKING IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS). THEREFORE...HAVE NIXED
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ALLOWED FOR A COUPLE OF
TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW END VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT. AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY PLN AND APN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT MBL AND APN DUE TO A NORTH FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM WEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PLN AND APN COULD BE UP TO AN INCH...MAINLY THIS
EVENING AFTER WITH LOSE THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION (DUE TO THE
HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1129 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND APX RADAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (AS ICE COVERAGE ON THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DWINDLE). AM NOT A BIG SUPPORTER OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SUN ANGLE (LOTS OF IR SOLAR
INSOLATION MAKING IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS). THEREFORE...HAVE NIXED
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ALLOWED FOR A COUPLE OF
TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOWPACK IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION...STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW END VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT. AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY PLN AND APN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT MBL AND APN DUE TO A NORTH FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM WEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PLN AND APN COULD BE UP TO AN INCH...MAINLY THIS
EVENING AFTER WITH LOSE THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION (DUE TO THE
HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261156
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
756 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW END VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT. AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY PLN AND APN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT MBL AND APN DUE TO A NORTH FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM WEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PLN AND APN COULD BE UP TO AN INCH...MAINLY THIS
EVENING AFTER WITH LOSE THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION (DUE TO THE
HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261156
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
756 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW END VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT. AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY PLN AND APN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT MBL AND APN DUE TO A NORTH FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM WEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PLN AND APN COULD BE UP TO AN INCH...MAINLY THIS
EVENING AFTER WITH LOSE THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION (DUE TO THE
HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261156
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
756 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW END VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT. AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY PLN AND APN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT MBL AND APN DUE TO A NORTH FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM WEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PLN AND APN COULD BE UP TO AN INCH...MAINLY THIS
EVENING AFTER WITH LOSE THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION (DUE TO THE
HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261156
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
756 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW END VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE MOMENT. AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY PLN AND APN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER AT MBL AND APN DUE TO A NORTH FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER FROM WEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PLN AND APN COULD BE UP TO AN INCH...MAINLY THIS
EVENING AFTER WITH LOSE THE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION (DUE TO THE
HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHGIAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS WERE UNDERGOING A RAPID EROSION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CLEAR OUT AT TVC/PLN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (~08Z).
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND SOME BL MOISTURE OUGHT TO DEVELOP SOME BROKEN MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LOWER INTO SOLID MVFR...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOWFALL AND
MAINLY FOR PLN AND ESPECIALLY APN INTO THIS EVENING. CAN FORESEE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE A SHADE HIGHER AT APN. SNOWFALL
RATES LOW.

THIS BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS PLN AROUND 05Z...THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TVC/MBL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...NORTH FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AT PLN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE WNW/NW TO GUST BACK INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY GRADUAL.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHGIAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS WERE UNDERGOING A RAPID EROSION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CLEAR OUT AT TVC/PLN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (~08Z).
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND SOME BL MOISTURE OUGHT TO DEVELOP SOME BROKEN MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LOWER INTO SOLID MVFR...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOWFALL AND
MAINLY FOR PLN AND ESPECIALLY APN INTO THIS EVENING. CAN FORESEE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE A SHADE HIGHER AT APN. SNOWFALL
RATES LOW.

THIS BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS PLN AROUND 05Z...THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TVC/MBL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...NORTH FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AT PLN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE WNW/NW TO GUST BACK INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY GRADUAL.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLDER AND SOME MORE SNOW FOR SOME...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE PARTS OF
THE CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT IS RIGHT OVERHEAD WITH
00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. THIS
IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
SPIT OUT A FEW FLURRIES/DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN NRN LOWER. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...THERE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
NOT REALLY INTO ANY COLDER AIR DUE TO A REALLY LOOSE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
FLURRIES WERE MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS MOST ALL OF THE REGION.

COLDER AIR WAS SEEN UPSTREAM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAL COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...THROUGH ND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE HERE ARE PRODUCING A GREATER
AREA/NUMBER OF SHOWERS...IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH SEEN FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH...AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL
IN TURN...PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. ALSO...COLDER H8
TEMPS WILL SINK INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE NEGATIVE TEENS TONIGHT.
WHILE WE ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE JET...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWS.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND ROUGHLY 0.25" PWATS WILL SCRAPE THE NE
CWA...BRINGING ROUGHLY 1-2" OF SNOW. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS MAYBE
MORE LOCALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NE LOWER DUE
TO A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEY REACH SUFFICIENTLY LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED...AND ONLY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION. A
NNE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SNOW THERE. A
NORTH FLOW ACROSS NRN LOWER WILL BRING NO MORE THAN AN INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS
MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER. ALTHOUGH WITH NORTH FLOW...SKIES ARE
LIKELY TO CLEAR...AND SOME LOWER LYING AREAS WILL CREEP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

DIMINISHING CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION AND LINGERING OVER WATER INSTABILITY...TO KEEP SOME MENTION
OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER PCPN WILL BE LIMITED AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING (850/500MB RH DROPPING TO
UNDER 30 PCT). ALSO...ANY LAKE ENHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ELIMINATED
BY 18Z AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LVL INVERSIONS CRASHING TO
UNDER 2K FT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LINGERING SNOW
CONFINED TO FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LVLS...DEEP 500MB TROUGH FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST WHILE 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -
17C...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SATURDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -9C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SETTLED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS CLIPPER WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. A
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...THE DEEP 500MB TROUGH WHICH
DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN
AND MOVE EAST...WITH A MORE ZONAL AND WARMER FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND -4C BEFORE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
WARMING TO AROUND +2C WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER. OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING LIKE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN MICHGIAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEARLY SEASONAL IN THE LOWER 40S THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND OF SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NRN MI SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DUE TO PASSING CLIPPERS. WILL MENTION MAINLY RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE AS 850MB WARM TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS WERE UNDERGOING A RAPID EROSION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CLEAR OUT AT TVC/PLN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (~08Z).
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND SOME BL MOISTURE OUGHT TO DEVELOP SOME BROKEN MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LOWER INTO SOLID MVFR...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOWFALL AND
MAINLY FOR PLN AND ESPECIALLY APN INTO THIS EVENING. CAN FORESEE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE A SHADE HIGHER AT APN. SNOWFALL
RATES LOW.

THIS BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS PLN AROUND 05Z...THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TVC/MBL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...NORTH FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AT PLN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE WNW/NW TO GUST BACK INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY GRADUAL.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260640
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

1000MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THIS MATURE SYSTEM HAS
A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...ILLUSTRATED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SATURATED THRU
800MB BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIGGING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN WAS KEEPING UPPER MI ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...WE ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP (SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX) IN
UPPER MI AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. SAULT ONTARIO HAS BEEN
REPORTING A RA/SN MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...PATCHY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL ECHOES ARE RESULTING IN A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY STEADY-STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMP ADVECTION IS BASICALLY NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FINALLY BLEEDS IN DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP -SN OR A -SN/-RA MIX GOING IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO...BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL -SN VERY
LATE. QPF MIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 0.1-0.2 INCHES BY WHITEFISH
PT...BUT THE SLOPPY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL KEEP ACCUMS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.

FOR NORTHERN LOWER...A FEW FLURRIES/SPOTS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL QUITE LATE...SO NO MAJOR FZDZ CONCERNS.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS WERE UNDERGOING A RAPID EROSION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CLEAR OUT AT TVC/PLN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (~08Z).
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND SOME BL MOISTURE OUGHT TO DEVELOP SOME BROKEN MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LOWER INTO SOLID MVFR...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOWFALL AND
MAINLY FOR PLN AND ESPECIALLY APN INTO THIS EVENING. CAN FORESEE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE A SHADE HIGHER AT APN. SNOWFALL
RATES LOW.

THIS BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS PLN AROUND 05Z...THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TVC/MBL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...NORTH FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AT PLN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE WNW/NW TO GUST BACK INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY GRADUAL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260640
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

1000MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THIS MATURE SYSTEM HAS
A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...ILLUSTRATED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SATURATED THRU
800MB BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIGGING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN WAS KEEPING UPPER MI ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...WE ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP (SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX) IN
UPPER MI AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. SAULT ONTARIO HAS BEEN
REPORTING A RA/SN MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...PATCHY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL ECHOES ARE RESULTING IN A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY STEADY-STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMP ADVECTION IS BASICALLY NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FINALLY BLEEDS IN DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP -SN OR A -SN/-RA MIX GOING IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO...BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL -SN VERY
LATE. QPF MIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 0.1-0.2 INCHES BY WHITEFISH
PT...BUT THE SLOPPY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL KEEP ACCUMS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.

FOR NORTHERN LOWER...A FEW FLURRIES/SPOTS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL QUITE LATE...SO NO MAJOR FZDZ CONCERNS.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS WERE UNDERGOING A RAPID EROSION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CLEAR OUT AT TVC/PLN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (~08Z).
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE LATE MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND SOME BL MOISTURE OUGHT TO DEVELOP SOME BROKEN MVFR/VFR
CUMULUS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LOWER INTO SOLID MVFR...AS DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOWFALL AND
MAINLY FOR PLN AND ESPECIALLY APN INTO THIS EVENING. CAN FORESEE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...MAYBE A SHADE HIGHER AT APN. SNOWFALL
RATES LOW.

THIS BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CROSS PLN AROUND 05Z...THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TVC/MBL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...NORTH FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AT PLN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE WNW/NW TO GUST BACK INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY GRADUAL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260140
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
940 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

1000MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THIS MATURE SYSTEM HAS
A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...ILLUSTRATED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SATURATED THRU
800MB BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIGGING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN WAS KEEPING UPPER MI ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...WE ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP (SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX) IN
UPPER MI AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. SAULT ONTARIO HAS BEEN
REPORTING A RA/SN MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...PATCHY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL ECHOES ARE RESULTING IN A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY STEADY-STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMP ADVECTION IS BASICALLY NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FINALLY BLEEDS IN DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP -SN OR A -SN/-RA MIX GOING IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO...BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL -SN VERY
LATE. QPF MIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 0.1-0.2 INCHES BY WHITEFISH
PT...BUT THE SLOPPY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL KEEP ACCUMS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.

FOR NORTHERN LOWER...A FEW FLURRIES/SPOTS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL QUITE LATE...SO NO MAJOR FZDZ CONCERNS.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260140
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
940 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

1000MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THIS MATURE SYSTEM HAS
A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...ILLUSTRATED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SATURATED THRU
800MB BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIGGING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN WAS KEEPING UPPER MI ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...WE ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP (SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX) IN
UPPER MI AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. SAULT ONTARIO HAS BEEN
REPORTING A RA/SN MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...PATCHY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL ECHOES ARE RESULTING IN A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY STEADY-STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMP ADVECTION IS BASICALLY NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FINALLY BLEEDS IN DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP -SN OR A -SN/-RA MIX GOING IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO...BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL -SN VERY
LATE. QPF MIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 0.1-0.2 INCHES BY WHITEFISH
PT...BUT THE SLOPPY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL KEEP ACCUMS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.

FOR NORTHERN LOWER...A FEW FLURRIES/SPOTS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL QUITE LATE...SO NO MAJOR FZDZ CONCERNS.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260140
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
940 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

1000MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THIS MATURE SYSTEM HAS
A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...ILLUSTRATED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SATURATED THRU
800MB BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIGGING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN WAS KEEPING UPPER MI ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...WE ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP (SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX) IN
UPPER MI AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. SAULT ONTARIO HAS BEEN
REPORTING A RA/SN MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...PATCHY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL ECHOES ARE RESULTING IN A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY STEADY-STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMP ADVECTION IS BASICALLY NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FINALLY BLEEDS IN DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP -SN OR A -SN/-RA MIX GOING IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO...BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL -SN VERY
LATE. QPF MIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 0.1-0.2 INCHES BY WHITEFISH
PT...BUT THE SLOPPY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL KEEP ACCUMS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.

FOR NORTHERN LOWER...A FEW FLURRIES/SPOTS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL QUITE LATE...SO NO MAJOR FZDZ CONCERNS.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260140
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
940 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

1000MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THIS MATURE SYSTEM HAS
A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...ILLUSTRATED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SATURATED THRU
800MB BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIGGING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN WAS KEEPING UPPER MI ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...WE ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP (SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX) IN
UPPER MI AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. SAULT ONTARIO HAS BEEN
REPORTING A RA/SN MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...PATCHY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL ECHOES ARE RESULTING IN A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY STEADY-STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMP ADVECTION IS BASICALLY NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FINALLY BLEEDS IN DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP -SN OR A -SN/-RA MIX GOING IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO...BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL -SN VERY
LATE. QPF MIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 0.1-0.2 INCHES BY WHITEFISH
PT...BUT THE SLOPPY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL KEEP ACCUMS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.

FOR NORTHERN LOWER...A FEW FLURRIES/SPOTS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL QUITE LATE...SO NO MAJOR FZDZ CONCERNS.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252353
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252353
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 252353
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251959
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING AS
IFR AT PLN/APN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251959
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING AS
IFR AT PLN/APN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251959
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING AS
IFR AT PLN/APN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW/SLEET BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  JUST WENT FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO WET SNOWFLAKES HERE AT THE OFFICE...SO WILL MAKE
THAT ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS.  PRECIP JUST REACHING NORTHEAST LOWER
WITH FREEZING RAIN AT APN...OSC REPORTING SNOW BUT NOT CERTAIN ABOUT
THAT (SEEMS THE ANALYZED THERMAL PROFILE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID).
WILL LOP OFF ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY
WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...ICY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS WORKING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SFC CIRCULATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO THE IL/IN BORDER. BROAD SCALE MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE FORCING ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80-90KT UPPER JETLET...DPVA AND
WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NE TOWARD NRN LOWER. STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME
ADVECTING IN WITH THE TROUGH ALSO RESULTING IN MORE OF A SHOWERY
LOOK AT TIMES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN SWATH. PWATS WERE A
RESPECTABLE 0.50" TO 1.0" WITH THE MAIN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON
LATEST WV IMAGERY. 6HR RAINFALL REPORTS UPSTREAM SUGGEST ROUGHLY
0.07" TO 0.20" HAS FALLEN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TIED TO A VORT MAX
WORKING INTO SE WI. PRETTY SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING/DRY SLOT SEEN ON
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET LIFTING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY QUICK END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED 4-6HR BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MANISTEE 5AM-6AM
THEN LIFT NE AND THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME
AND THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN. A COLDER AIR
MASS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WILL RESULT IN ALL SNOW (SOME MIX MAYBE
ENTERING SE SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK). THIS SNOW WILL MOVE IN 9AM TO
11AM. LOW SNOW RATIOS TO RESULT IN AROUND 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW
THERE. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS/NEAR EASTERN UPPER FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC VERY LIGHT SNOW/POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MORNING TRAVEL...IS THE FREEZING
RAIN. TOTAL QPF OF A TENTH TO SLIGHT HIGHER THAN 0.20" IN NRN
LOWER...AND SOME OF THAT WILL FALL AS RAIN. THINKING A GENERAL 0.08"
TO 0.014" OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA ROADS.
EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS WERE IN
THE MIDDLE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE WILL RISE TOO...BUT COULD LINGER
THE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT A BIT LONGER. MORNING COMMUTERS WILL NEED
TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. SCHOOL BUS ROUTES
WILL BE AFFECTED...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE COMMUNITIES OF
MANISTEE... FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...CADILLAC...HOUGHTON
LAKE...GRAYLING AND OVER TOWARD EAST TAWAS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BEHIND THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
BUT DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH SUNSHINE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...IN THE
MIDDLE 30S NW TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER
(DOWNSLOPING).

SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN LOWER AND MORE
CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
LIFTS LAYS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE THE LOW CLOUD THREAT AND ALSO
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S THERE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SETTLING OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...NEARLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR
PROGS SHOWING LIMITED RH OVER THE NRN LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850/500MB RH PROGGED AROUND 30 PCT
THURSDAY AFTN. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE MID LVL DRY
POCKET MOISTENS THURSDAY EVENING...A RESULT OF THE 500MB TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER PATTERN WILL DROP TO -12C THURSDAY WHILE FALLING TO AROUND
-18C FRIDAY. THEREFORE LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR
OVER THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...AS 850MB TEMPS TO -14C.
HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
HINDERED BY SFC-850MB WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NW THURSDAY EVENING TO
THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 3K
FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL MENTION HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE INTO NRN MI. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BUILT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...OVERALL WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... EXCEPT SUNDAY
WHEN A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MID
LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE COLDEST AROUND -12C
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND +4C TUESDAY. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY AND COOL ON
SATURDAY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING
CLIPPER...WITH A MAINLY DRY START TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
AFTN HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING AS
IFR AT PLN/APN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW/SLEET BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  JUST WENT FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO WET SNOWFLAKES HERE AT THE OFFICE...SO WILL MAKE
THAT ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS.  PRECIP JUST REACHING NORTHEAST LOWER
WITH FREEZING RAIN AT APN...OSC REPORTING SNOW BUT NOT CERTAIN ABOUT
THAT (SEEMS THE ANALYZED THERMAL PROFILE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID).
WILL LOP OFF ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY
WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...ICY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS WORKING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SFC CIRCULATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO THE IL/IN BORDER. BROAD SCALE MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE FORCING ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80-90KT UPPER JETLET...DPVA AND
WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NE TOWARD NRN LOWER. STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME
ADVECTING IN WITH THE TROUGH ALSO RESULTING IN MORE OF A SHOWERY
LOOK AT TIMES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN SWATH. PWATS WERE A
RESPECTABLE 0.50" TO 1.0" WITH THE MAIN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON
LATEST WV IMAGERY. 6HR RAINFALL REPORTS UPSTREAM SUGGEST ROUGHLY
0.07" TO 0.20" HAS FALLEN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TIED TO A VORT MAX
WORKING INTO SE WI. PRETTY SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING/DRY SLOT SEEN ON
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET LIFTING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY QUICK END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED 4-6HR BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MANISTEE 5AM-6AM
THEN LIFT NE AND THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME
AND THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN. A COLDER AIR
MASS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WILL RESULT IN ALL SNOW (SOME MIX MAYBE
ENTERING SE SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK). THIS SNOW WILL MOVE IN 9AM TO
11AM. LOW SNOW RATIOS TO RESULT IN AROUND 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW
THERE. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS/NEAR EASTERN UPPER FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC VERY LIGHT SNOW/POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MORNING TRAVEL...IS THE FREEZING
RAIN. TOTAL QPF OF A TENTH TO SLIGHT HIGHER THAN 0.20" IN NRN
LOWER...AND SOME OF THAT WILL FALL AS RAIN. THINKING A GENERAL 0.08"
TO 0.014" OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA ROADS.
EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS WERE IN
THE MIDDLE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE WILL RISE TOO...BUT COULD LINGER
THE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT A BIT LONGER. MORNING COMMUTERS WILL NEED
TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. SCHOOL BUS ROUTES
WILL BE AFFECTED...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE COMMUNITIES OF
MANISTEE... FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...CADILLAC...HOUGHTON
LAKE...GRAYLING AND OVER TOWARD EAST TAWAS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BEHIND THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
BUT DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH SUNSHINE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...IN THE
MIDDLE 30S NW TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER
(DOWNSLOPING).

SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN LOWER AND MORE
CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
LIFTS LAYS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE THE LOW CLOUD THREAT AND ALSO
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S THERE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SETTLING OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...NEARLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR
PROGS SHOWING LIMITED RH OVER THE NRN LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850/500MB RH PROGGED AROUND 30 PCT
THURSDAY AFTN. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE MID LVL DRY
POCKET MOISTENS THURSDAY EVENING...A RESULT OF THE 500MB TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER PATTERN WILL DROP TO -12C THURSDAY WHILE FALLING TO AROUND
-18C FRIDAY. THEREFORE LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR
OVER THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...AS 850MB TEMPS TO -14C.
HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
HINDERED BY SFC-850MB WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NW THURSDAY EVENING TO
THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 3K
FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL MENTION HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE INTO NRN MI. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BUILT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...OVERALL WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... EXCEPT SUNDAY
WHEN A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MID
LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE COLDEST AROUND -12C
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND +4C TUESDAY. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY AND COOL ON
SATURDAY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING
CLIPPER...WITH A MAINLY DRY START TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
AFTN HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING AS
IFR AT PLN/APN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW/SLEET BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  JUST WENT FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO WET SNOWFLAKES HERE AT THE OFFICE...SO WILL MAKE
THAT ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS.  PRECIP JUST REACHING NORTHEAST LOWER
WITH FREEZING RAIN AT APN...OSC REPORTING SNOW BUT NOT CERTAIN ABOUT
THAT (SEEMS THE ANALYZED THERMAL PROFILE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID).
WILL LOP OFF ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY
WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...ICY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS WORKING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SFC CIRCULATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO THE IL/IN BORDER. BROAD SCALE MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE FORCING ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80-90KT UPPER JETLET...DPVA AND
WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NE TOWARD NRN LOWER. STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME
ADVECTING IN WITH THE TROUGH ALSO RESULTING IN MORE OF A SHOWERY
LOOK AT TIMES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN SWATH. PWATS WERE A
RESPECTABLE 0.50" TO 1.0" WITH THE MAIN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON
LATEST WV IMAGERY. 6HR RAINFALL REPORTS UPSTREAM SUGGEST ROUGHLY
0.07" TO 0.20" HAS FALLEN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TIED TO A VORT MAX
WORKING INTO SE WI. PRETTY SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING/DRY SLOT SEEN ON
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET LIFTING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY QUICK END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED 4-6HR BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MANISTEE 5AM-6AM
THEN LIFT NE AND THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME
AND THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN. A COLDER AIR
MASS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WILL RESULT IN ALL SNOW (SOME MIX MAYBE
ENTERING SE SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK). THIS SNOW WILL MOVE IN 9AM TO
11AM. LOW SNOW RATIOS TO RESULT IN AROUND 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW
THERE. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS/NEAR EASTERN UPPER FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC VERY LIGHT SNOW/POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MORNING TRAVEL...IS THE FREEZING
RAIN. TOTAL QPF OF A TENTH TO SLIGHT HIGHER THAN 0.20" IN NRN
LOWER...AND SOME OF THAT WILL FALL AS RAIN. THINKING A GENERAL 0.08"
TO 0.014" OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA ROADS.
EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS WERE IN
THE MIDDLE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE WILL RISE TOO...BUT COULD LINGER
THE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT A BIT LONGER. MORNING COMMUTERS WILL NEED
TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. SCHOOL BUS ROUTES
WILL BE AFFECTED...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE COMMUNITIES OF
MANISTEE... FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...CADILLAC...HOUGHTON
LAKE...GRAYLING AND OVER TOWARD EAST TAWAS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BEHIND THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
BUT DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH SUNSHINE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...IN THE
MIDDLE 30S NW TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER
(DOWNSLOPING).

SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN LOWER AND MORE
CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
LIFTS LAYS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE THE LOW CLOUD THREAT AND ALSO
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S THERE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SETTLING OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...NEARLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR
PROGS SHOWING LIMITED RH OVER THE NRN LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850/500MB RH PROGGED AROUND 30 PCT
THURSDAY AFTN. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE MID LVL DRY
POCKET MOISTENS THURSDAY EVENING...A RESULT OF THE 500MB TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER PATTERN WILL DROP TO -12C THURSDAY WHILE FALLING TO AROUND
-18C FRIDAY. THEREFORE LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR
OVER THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...AS 850MB TEMPS TO -14C.
HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
HINDERED BY SFC-850MB WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NW THURSDAY EVENING TO
THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 3K
FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL MENTION HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE INTO NRN MI. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BUILT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...OVERALL WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... EXCEPT SUNDAY
WHEN A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MID
LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE COLDEST AROUND -12C
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND +4C TUESDAY. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY AND COOL ON
SATURDAY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING
CLIPPER...WITH A MAINLY DRY START TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
AFTN HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING AS
IFR AT PLN/APN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251745
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW/SLEET BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  JUST WENT FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO WET SNOWFLAKES HERE AT THE OFFICE...SO WILL MAKE
THAT ADJUSTMENT TO THE GRIDS.  PRECIP JUST REACHING NORTHEAST LOWER
WITH FREEZING RAIN AT APN...OSC REPORTING SNOW BUT NOT CERTAIN ABOUT
THAT (SEEMS THE ANALYZED THERMAL PROFILE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID).
WILL LOP OFF ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY
WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...ICY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS WORKING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SFC CIRCULATIONS FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO THE IL/IN BORDER. BROAD SCALE MODEST DEEP LAYER -DIVQ WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE FORCING ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80-90KT UPPER JETLET...DPVA AND
WAA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NE TOWARD NRN LOWER. STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME
ADVECTING IN WITH THE TROUGH ALSO RESULTING IN MORE OF A SHOWERY
LOOK AT TIMES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN SWATH. PWATS WERE A
RESPECTABLE 0.50" TO 1.0" WITH THE MAIN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON
LATEST WV IMAGERY. 6HR RAINFALL REPORTS UPSTREAM SUGGEST ROUGHLY
0.07" TO 0.20" HAS FALLEN...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TIED TO A VORT MAX
WORKING INTO SE WI. PRETTY SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING/DRY SLOT SEEN ON
THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET LIFTING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY QUICK END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED 4-6HR BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MANISTEE 5AM-6AM
THEN LIFT NE AND THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME
AND THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN. A COLDER AIR
MASS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WILL RESULT IN ALL SNOW (SOME MIX MAYBE
ENTERING SE SECTIONS OF CHIP/MACK). THIS SNOW WILL MOVE IN 9AM TO
11AM. LOW SNOW RATIOS TO RESULT IN AROUND 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW
THERE. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS/NEAR EASTERN UPPER FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC VERY LIGHT SNOW/POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MORNING TRAVEL...IS THE FREEZING
RAIN. TOTAL QPF OF A TENTH TO SLIGHT HIGHER THAN 0.20" IN NRN
LOWER...AND SOME OF THAT WILL FALL AS RAIN. THINKING A GENERAL 0.08"
TO 0.014" OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA ROADS.
EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS WERE IN
THE MIDDLE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE WILL RISE TOO...BUT COULD LINGER
THE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT A BIT LONGER. MORNING COMMUTERS WILL NEED
TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. SCHOOL BUS ROUTES
WILL BE AFFECTED...PRIMARILY IN AND AROUND THE COMMUNITIES OF
MANISTEE... FRANKFORT... TRAVERSE CITY...CADILLAC...HOUGHTON
LAKE...GRAYLING AND OVER TOWARD EAST TAWAS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN INTACT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BEHIND THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT
BUT DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH SUNSHINE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...IN THE
MIDDLE 30S NW TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NE LOWER
(DOWNSLOPING).

SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN LOWER AND MORE
CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
LIFTS LAYS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE THE LOW CLOUD THREAT AND ALSO
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S THERE...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN NRN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL EXIT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES SETTLING OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...NEARLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR
PROGS SHOWING LIMITED RH OVER THE NRN LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850/500MB RH PROGGED AROUND 30 PCT
THURSDAY AFTN. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE MID LVL DRY
POCKET MOISTENS THURSDAY EVENING...A RESULT OF THE 500MB TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER PATTERN WILL DROP TO -12C THURSDAY WHILE FALLING TO AROUND
-18C FRIDAY. THEREFORE LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR
OVER THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY EVENING...AS 850MB TEMPS TO -14C.
HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
HINDERED BY SFC-850MB WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NW THURSDAY EVENING TO
THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 3K
FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL MENTION HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE INTO NRN MI. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BUILT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK. AT UPPER LVLS...OVERALL WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD... EXCEPT SUNDAY
WHEN A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW SWEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MID
LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE COLDEST AROUND -12C
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND +4C TUESDAY. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF DRY AND COOL ON
SATURDAY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING
CLIPPER...WITH A MAINLY DRY START TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
AFTN HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...STARTING AS
IFR AT PLN/APN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR




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