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000
FXUS63 KAPX 222309
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
609 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM
OF SHARP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A 160+ KNOT
UPPER JET DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
IS ALREADY PRODUCING A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PUSHING INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT UP THIS
WAY A GOOD PART OF ERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MANAGED TO CATCH A FEW
HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE ANYWAY.

TONIGHT...PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING...AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND EXIT REGION FORCING...WILL SWING UP
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SWING UP INTO THE CWA SW-NE THIS EVENING. BUT THINGS
SHOULD FILL IN NICELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MY
INHERITED FORECAST...JUST SOME TIMING/SPATIAL TWEAKS TO POPS.

BIGGER QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE. SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT (ABOVE
0C) WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TODAY IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THAT WARM AIR. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
STARTS AND REMAINS MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER INTO THE TIP OF
THE MITT STAY MAINLY SNOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...
NOT SO CONVINCED ABOUT A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...SINCE BY THE TIME THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
SFC TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL.

ALL TOLD...MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ARE ALSO A TRICKY MESS TO DEAL WITH
AND USUALLY NEVER UNFOLD AS YOU THINK THEY WILL. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP (SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN)
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ENOUGH SO TO JUSTIFY HOISTING
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE TRAVEL HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM TUESDAY
REMAINS A TOUGH CALL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TRACK OF A SECOND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING
TO DIFFER. THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE THE FORM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ALL CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...WHICH IS ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN (WHICH IS A FARTHER EAST TRACK THAN PROGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS). A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH (QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD
OF AN INCH). THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS WELL AS A FARTHER EAST TRACK
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOWER TEMPERATURE INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE.
SO LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER INDICATE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 800 MB. SO WITH THE HELP OF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...COULD SEE SNEAKY SURPRISE WET SNOW HOLDING ON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LEADING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES (WHILE LIKELY STRENGTHENING). MODELS HAVE HAD AN
EXTREMELY HARD TIME DETERMINING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SOLUTIONS ALL OVER THE BOARD. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A TRACK TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF ALPENA (AND THROW OUT THE OUTLIER NAM). THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY SPREAD RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS TRACK WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH COOL
BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO
MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 30S (PERHAPS NEAR 40
TUESDAY) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING CHRISTMAS TIME SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT CHANCES FOR SNOW HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR A PERIOD BEGINNING
MONDAY...BUT WITH DECENT RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL
TROUGHING PATTERN COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 20S...DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING JUST WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY START AS OR MIX WITH SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...UNTIL LOW LEVEL WAA CHANGES ALL PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD PLAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE THEN
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE-BASED ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER REMAINS THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL LIQUID THRU 00Z
WEDNESDAY. E/SE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD..ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ022-023-027>029-032>035.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 222309
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
609 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM
OF SHARP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A 160+ KNOT
UPPER JET DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
IS ALREADY PRODUCING A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PUSHING INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT UP THIS
WAY A GOOD PART OF ERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MANAGED TO CATCH A FEW
HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE ANYWAY.

TONIGHT...PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING...AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND EXIT REGION FORCING...WILL SWING UP
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SWING UP INTO THE CWA SW-NE THIS EVENING. BUT THINGS
SHOULD FILL IN NICELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MY
INHERITED FORECAST...JUST SOME TIMING/SPATIAL TWEAKS TO POPS.

BIGGER QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE. SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT (ABOVE
0C) WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TODAY IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THAT WARM AIR. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
STARTS AND REMAINS MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER INTO THE TIP OF
THE MITT STAY MAINLY SNOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...
NOT SO CONVINCED ABOUT A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...SINCE BY THE TIME THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
SFC TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL.

ALL TOLD...MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ARE ALSO A TRICKY MESS TO DEAL WITH
AND USUALLY NEVER UNFOLD AS YOU THINK THEY WILL. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP (SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN)
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ENOUGH SO TO JUSTIFY HOISTING
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE TRAVEL HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM TUESDAY
REMAINS A TOUGH CALL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TRACK OF A SECOND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING
TO DIFFER. THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE THE FORM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ALL CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...WHICH IS ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN (WHICH IS A FARTHER EAST TRACK THAN PROGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS). A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH (QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD
OF AN INCH). THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS WELL AS A FARTHER EAST TRACK
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOWER TEMPERATURE INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE.
SO LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER INDICATE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 800 MB. SO WITH THE HELP OF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...COULD SEE SNEAKY SURPRISE WET SNOW HOLDING ON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LEADING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES (WHILE LIKELY STRENGTHENING). MODELS HAVE HAD AN
EXTREMELY HARD TIME DETERMINING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SOLUTIONS ALL OVER THE BOARD. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A TRACK TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF ALPENA (AND THROW OUT THE OUTLIER NAM). THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY SPREAD RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS TRACK WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH COOL
BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO
MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 30S (PERHAPS NEAR 40
TUESDAY) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING CHRISTMAS TIME SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT CHANCES FOR SNOW HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR A PERIOD BEGINNING
MONDAY...BUT WITH DECENT RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL
TROUGHING PATTERN COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 20S...DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING JUST WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY START AS OR MIX WITH SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...UNTIL LOW LEVEL WAA CHANGES ALL PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD PLAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE THEN
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE-BASED ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER REMAINS THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL LIQUID THRU 00Z
WEDNESDAY. E/SE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD..ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ022-023-027>029-032>035.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 222051
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM
OF SHARP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A 160+ KNOT
UPPER JET DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
IS ALREADY PRODUCING A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PUSHING INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT UP THIS
WAY A GOOD PART OF ERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MANAGED TO CATCH A FEW
HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE ANYWAY.

TONIGHT...PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING...AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND EXIT REGION FORCING...WILL SWING UP
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SWING UP INTO THE CWA SW-NE THIS EVENING. BUT THINGS
SHOULD FILL IN NICELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MY
INHERITED FORECAST...JUST SOME TIMING/SPATIAL TWEAKS TO POPS.

BIGGER QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE. SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT (ABOVE
0C) WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TODAY IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THAT WARM AIR. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
STARTS AND REMAINS MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER INTO THE TIP OF
THE MITT STAY MAINLY SNOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...
NOT SO CONVINCED ABOUT A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...SINCE BY THE TIME THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
SFC TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL.

ALL TOLD...MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ARE ALSO A TRICKY MESS TO DEAL WITH
AND USUALLY NEVER UNFOLD AS YOU THINK THEY WILL. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP (SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN)
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ENOUGH SO TO JUSTIFY HOISTING
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE TRAVEL HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM TUESDAY
REMAINS A TOUGH CALL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TRACK OF A SECOND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING
TO DIFFER. THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE THE FORM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ALL CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...WHICH IS ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN (WHICH IS A FARTHER EAST TRACK THAN PROGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS). A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH (QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD
OF AN INCH). THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS WELL AS A FARTHER EAST TRACK
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOWER TEMPERATURE INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE.
SO LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER INDICATE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 800 MB. SO WITH THE HELP OF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...COULD SEE SNEAKY SURPRISE WET SNOW HOLDING ON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LEADING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES (WHILE LIKELY STRENGTHENING). MODELS HAVE HAD AN
EXTREMELY HARD TIME DETERMINING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SOLUTIONS ALL OVER THE BOARD. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A TRACK TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF ALPENA (AND THROW OUT THE OUTLIER NAM). THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY SPREAD RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS TRACK WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH COOL
BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO
MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 30S (PERHAPS NEAR 40
TUESDAY) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING CHRISTMAS TIME SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT CHANCES FOR SNOW HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR A PERIOD BEGINNING
MONDAY...BUT WITH DECENT RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL
TROUGHING PATTERN COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 20S...DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
APN...WHERE SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON MAY CONTINUE TO DRAG SOME
LOWER LAKE CLOUDS INTO THAT AREA.

TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A BIG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR/FORCING UP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN FOR TVC/MBL. BUT PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE AT PLN/APN AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ022-023-027>029-032>035.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 222051
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM
OF SHARP RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A 160+ KNOT
UPPER JET DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
IS ALREADY PRODUCING A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PUSHING INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT UP THIS
WAY A GOOD PART OF ERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MANAGED TO CATCH A FEW
HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE ANYWAY.

TONIGHT...PULSE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING...AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND EXIT REGION FORCING...WILL SWING UP
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SWING UP INTO THE CWA SW-NE THIS EVENING. BUT THINGS
SHOULD FILL IN NICELY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGEST FORCING. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MY
INHERITED FORECAST...JUST SOME TIMING/SPATIAL TWEAKS TO POPS.

BIGGER QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE. SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT (ABOVE
0C) WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TODAY IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THAT WARM AIR. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP
STARTS AND REMAINS MAINLY SNOW THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN LOWER INTO THE TIP OF
THE MITT STAY MAINLY SNOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...
NOT SO CONVINCED ABOUT A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN THREAT FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...SINCE BY THE TIME THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
SFC TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL.

ALL TOLD...MIXED PRECIP EVENTS ARE ALSO A TRICKY MESS TO DEAL WITH
AND USUALLY NEVER UNFOLD AS YOU THINK THEY WILL. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP (SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN)
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ENOUGH SO TO JUSTIFY HOISTING
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE TRAVEL HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM TUESDAY
REMAINS A TOUGH CALL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TRACK OF A SECOND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING
TO DIFFER. THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE THE FORM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ALL CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN...WHICH IS ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN (WHICH IS A FARTHER EAST TRACK THAN PROGGED OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS). A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH (QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD
OF AN INCH). THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS WELL AS A FARTHER EAST TRACK
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOWER TEMPERATURE INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE.
SO LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER INDICATE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR FREEZING FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 800 MB. SO WITH THE HELP OF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...COULD SEE SNEAKY SURPRISE WET SNOW HOLDING ON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LEADING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES (WHILE LIKELY STRENGTHENING). MODELS HAVE HAD AN
EXTREMELY HARD TIME DETERMINING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SOLUTIONS ALL OVER THE BOARD. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A TRACK TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF ALPENA (AND THROW OUT THE OUTLIER NAM). THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY SPREAD RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW INTO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS TRACK WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH COOL
BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO
MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD MAINLY IN THE 30S (PERHAPS NEAR 40
TUESDAY) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING CHRISTMAS TIME SYSTEM. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT CHANCES FOR SNOW HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR A PERIOD BEGINNING
MONDAY...BUT WITH DECENT RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL
TROUGHING PATTERN COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 20S...DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
APN...WHERE SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON MAY CONTINUE TO DRAG SOME
LOWER LAKE CLOUDS INTO THAT AREA.

TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A BIG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR/FORCING UP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN FOR TVC/MBL. BUT PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE AT PLN/APN AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ022-023-027>029-032>035.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 221752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WEDGE OF DRY AIR PUSHING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS REALLY
DONE A NUMBER ON THE CLOUD COVER...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN NOW LOOKING AT SUNNY SKIES FOR A CHANGE. ONLY CAVEAT
REMAINS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/ADVECT LOWER CLOUD COVER INTO THAT AREA. HAVE
TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.

UPSTREAM...NEXT BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPREADING
SW-NE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO...FOR
THOSE THAT HAVE IT...ENJOY THE SUN WHILE YOU CAN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...A PRETTY QUIET DAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WAS AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
BUT WAS DEPARTING NE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW AND WAA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WAS TOO FAR
WEST OF HERE TO BRING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS PUMPING SOME
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FROM THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND HIGH
PRESSURE...UP INTO NRN LOWER ATTM. THE HIGHER CLOUD WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE/IMPULSE RUNNING UP TOWARD SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE BACKSIDE OF THAT CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
MANISTEE AREA/GTV BAY AREAS 7-9AM...BEFORE CONTINUING TO EXIT NE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE EASTERN UPPER PRECIP WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL RIPPLE INTO ONTARIO. THE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TRY AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH MAINLY NRN LOWER. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKING TO MORE OUT OF THE SSE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BETTER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...THE CLOUDS WOULD BE FOCUSED UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE CLEARING...AND THERE
IS HESITATION WHEN SUN IS EXPECTED...WOULD BE PRIMARILY IN NRN LOWER
WHERE THE DRYING IS GREATEST. THIS WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGHER CLOUD FROM THE WAVE PUSHING
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN EXITS.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AND MUCH THICKER CLOUD/PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING AND POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF LOW
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: YOU NAME IT! REALLY STARTING TO FEEL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE HIGH SPOTS/TIP OF THE MITT OF NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SNEAKY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL NORTH OF THE BRIDGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING SNOW/WIND POTENTIAL
TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY EVENING) THROUGH CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING.

ANYONE HAVE A COIN I CAN FLIP? MIGHT BE JUST AS ACCURATE AS FORECAST
"CONSENSUS" HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY MIDWEEK PERIOD. STILL LOTS OF
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS TIME RANGE...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IS THE PERIOD WHEN WE NEED THE MOST ANSWERS GIVEN LOTS OF FUN
FESTIVITIES AND ASSOCIATED TRAVEL CONCERNS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT IS BECOMING CLEARER BY THE MINUTE
(AT LEAST IN MY MIND)...FEATURING A CONCERN REGARDING SOME SNEAKY
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS A SIMILAR CONCERN BUT
JUST OF THE FREEZING RAIN VARIETY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE LOWER 48 IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...FEATURING TREMENDOUS PACIFIC JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS I TYPE THIS...WITH THAT ENERGY GOING INTO
THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS (ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT!) TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING.
THAT FEATURE WILL OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH ALL EYES
ON ADDITIONAL STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OCCLUDING LEAD TROUGH... AND HELPING DEVELOP A NEUTRAL TO EVEN
NEGATIVELY TILTED/CLOSED MID LEVEL RESPONSE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID
MISS VALLEY. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS THE ONE OF MOST CONTENTION...
WITH NUMEROUS OUTCOMES POSSIBLE...AND JUST ABOUT ANY SINGLE ONE
WITHIN REASON...THOUGH THE TRUE ENERGY PLAYER IN THIS WHOLE MESS HAS
YET TO COME ASHORE JUST YET (THOUGH GOES WIND ANALYSIS DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON ITS STRENGTH).

AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING AND JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH OUR SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS...AND CONTINUE TO BELIEVE
BASED ON CLIMO OF SUCH STRONG PACIFIC JETS THAT THIS THING WILL
REALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD GULF COAST...WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET
SUPPORT FAVORING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD LA/MS. THAT
FEATURE SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE
RATE AT WHICH THAT HAPPENS AS WELL AS JUST HOW MUCH OCCLUSION CAN
OCCUR (NEUTRAL VERSUS NEGATIVE TILT) MEANS EVERYTHING FOR OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. A LESS AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL WAVE RESPONSE MEANS A
MORE OPEN WAVE LIKELY PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST...AND PERHAPS
DELIVERING BASICALLY NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE SURFACE LOW MAY WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH ITS UPPER
WAVE...FAVORING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA (OR MAYBE EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN THE ENTIRE EVENT).

CONFUSED YET? I KNOW I AM...AND I LOOK AT WEATHER ALL THE TIME!
LET`S START WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE STUFF. APPROACH OF LEAD CLOSED
WAVE AND  AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST MAY SLOW THE
NORTHWARD MARCH OF PRECIP THANKS TO DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH...BUT
THAT SAME FLOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP SURFACE TEMPS AND THERMAL
PROFILES COLDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN A START AS ALL
SNOW FOR THE HIGHLANDS AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL AS SURFACE
TEMPS HANG IN THE 30-32F RANGE. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SECONDARY ROADS GIVEN MANY  REMAIN COLD AND SNOW COVERED...MEANING
THAT EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F...MICROSCALE PROCESSES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE SOME QUITE SLICK TRAVEL. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P....BELIEVE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A START AS
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO AROUND 32F OFF SNOW-COVERED ONTARIO.
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SNEAKY 1-3" OF SNOW FALLING IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH A HEADLINE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN LIKELY SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THAT MESS SHOULD END AS A WARM FRONT PASSES AND NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BREAKS INTO THE "WARM" SECTOR ON TUESDAY. STILL...COULD BE
SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR SPOTS OF EASTERN UPPER RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ENDS AS DEW POINTS CRUISE THROUGH THE 30S AND PLENTY OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB REMAINS...WITH FOG ALSO A CONCERN OVER COLD GROUND.
HOWEVER...IT ISN`T IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE ALSO SEE SOME SNEAKY COOLER
AIR FILTER BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO AGAIN SLIP BACK BELOW
FREEZING. THAT TYPE OF SNEAKY SETUP WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON PAR WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S STYLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THEREAFTER...IT`S ALL DOWNHILL IN THE CONFIDENCE DEPARTMENT. FEEL
REALLY COMPELLED TO CARRY A CONSENSUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY (AFTER A PROBABLE BREAK TUESDAY
NIGHT)...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING CHRISTMAS MORNING. 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THROWING DARTS...WITH A GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS EMERGING...FEATURING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH LAKE
HURON...SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA. NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE P-GFS TRACKING
OVERHEAD...NAM OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (HUH?)...AND GGEM NOT CHANGING
ALL THAT MUCH. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES IN THE MIDDLE/EASTERN
SOLUTIONS...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP LAKE HURON (CLIMO-FAVORED
AREA) WHILE DEEPENING...SUGGESTING (AS OUR FORECAST HAS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS) RAIN INITIALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES CRASH INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF ELONGATING DEFORMATION-DRIVEN PRECIP AXIS. AS SUCH...THE
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOME VERY WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTIER WINDS JUST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE
FAR FROM SET IN STONE. WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY...THOUGH WITH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO
SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO WHICH COULD EVEN BRING MORE
RAIN. HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AS THE COLD AIR/BAROCLINICITY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SETUPS TYPICALLY LAYS OUT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER
THAT...IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE MEAN UPPER
PATTERN...DRIVEN IN PART BY OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM SORT OF THROWING THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION FOR A LOOP. CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY
JANUARY WEATHER...FEATURING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING OF COURSE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND THE OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM OR TWO.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS AT THIS RANGE. THUS...
CHANCE WORDING WILL DO FOR DAILY SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...WITH TEMPS AT
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
APN...WHERE SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON MAY CONTINUE TO DRAG SOME
LOWER LAKE CLOUDS INTO THAT AREA.

TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A BIG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR/FORCING UP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN FOR TVC/MBL. BUT PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE AT PLN/APN AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 221752
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WEDGE OF DRY AIR PUSHING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS REALLY
DONE A NUMBER ON THE CLOUD COVER...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN NOW LOOKING AT SUNNY SKIES FOR A CHANGE. ONLY CAVEAT
REMAINS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/ADVECT LOWER CLOUD COVER INTO THAT AREA. HAVE
TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.

UPSTREAM...NEXT BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPREADING
SW-NE INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO...FOR
THOSE THAT HAVE IT...ENJOY THE SUN WHILE YOU CAN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...A PRETTY QUIET DAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WAS AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
BUT WAS DEPARTING NE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW AND WAA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WAS TOO FAR
WEST OF HERE TO BRING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS PUMPING SOME
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FROM THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND HIGH
PRESSURE...UP INTO NRN LOWER ATTM. THE HIGHER CLOUD WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE/IMPULSE RUNNING UP TOWARD SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE BACKSIDE OF THAT CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
MANISTEE AREA/GTV BAY AREAS 7-9AM...BEFORE CONTINUING TO EXIT NE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE EASTERN UPPER PRECIP WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL RIPPLE INTO ONTARIO. THE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TRY AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH MAINLY NRN LOWER. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKING TO MORE OUT OF THE SSE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BETTER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...THE CLOUDS WOULD BE FOCUSED UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE CLEARING...AND THERE
IS HESITATION WHEN SUN IS EXPECTED...WOULD BE PRIMARILY IN NRN LOWER
WHERE THE DRYING IS GREATEST. THIS WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGHER CLOUD FROM THE WAVE PUSHING
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN EXITS.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AND MUCH THICKER CLOUD/PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING AND POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF LOW
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: YOU NAME IT! REALLY STARTING TO FEEL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE HIGH SPOTS/TIP OF THE MITT OF NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SNEAKY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL NORTH OF THE BRIDGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING SNOW/WIND POTENTIAL
TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY EVENING) THROUGH CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING.

ANYONE HAVE A COIN I CAN FLIP? MIGHT BE JUST AS ACCURATE AS FORECAST
"CONSENSUS" HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY MIDWEEK PERIOD. STILL LOTS OF
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS TIME RANGE...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IS THE PERIOD WHEN WE NEED THE MOST ANSWERS GIVEN LOTS OF FUN
FESTIVITIES AND ASSOCIATED TRAVEL CONCERNS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT IS BECOMING CLEARER BY THE MINUTE
(AT LEAST IN MY MIND)...FEATURING A CONCERN REGARDING SOME SNEAKY
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS A SIMILAR CONCERN BUT
JUST OF THE FREEZING RAIN VARIETY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE LOWER 48 IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...FEATURING TREMENDOUS PACIFIC JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS I TYPE THIS...WITH THAT ENERGY GOING INTO
THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS (ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT!) TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING.
THAT FEATURE WILL OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH ALL EYES
ON ADDITIONAL STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OCCLUDING LEAD TROUGH... AND HELPING DEVELOP A NEUTRAL TO EVEN
NEGATIVELY TILTED/CLOSED MID LEVEL RESPONSE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID
MISS VALLEY. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS THE ONE OF MOST CONTENTION...
WITH NUMEROUS OUTCOMES POSSIBLE...AND JUST ABOUT ANY SINGLE ONE
WITHIN REASON...THOUGH THE TRUE ENERGY PLAYER IN THIS WHOLE MESS HAS
YET TO COME ASHORE JUST YET (THOUGH GOES WIND ANALYSIS DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON ITS STRENGTH).

AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING AND JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH OUR SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS...AND CONTINUE TO BELIEVE
BASED ON CLIMO OF SUCH STRONG PACIFIC JETS THAT THIS THING WILL
REALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD GULF COAST...WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET
SUPPORT FAVORING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD LA/MS. THAT
FEATURE SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE
RATE AT WHICH THAT HAPPENS AS WELL AS JUST HOW MUCH OCCLUSION CAN
OCCUR (NEUTRAL VERSUS NEGATIVE TILT) MEANS EVERYTHING FOR OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. A LESS AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL WAVE RESPONSE MEANS A
MORE OPEN WAVE LIKELY PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST...AND PERHAPS
DELIVERING BASICALLY NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE SURFACE LOW MAY WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH ITS UPPER
WAVE...FAVORING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA (OR MAYBE EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN THE ENTIRE EVENT).

CONFUSED YET? I KNOW I AM...AND I LOOK AT WEATHER ALL THE TIME!
LET`S START WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE STUFF. APPROACH OF LEAD CLOSED
WAVE AND  AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST MAY SLOW THE
NORTHWARD MARCH OF PRECIP THANKS TO DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH...BUT
THAT SAME FLOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP SURFACE TEMPS AND THERMAL
PROFILES COLDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN A START AS ALL
SNOW FOR THE HIGHLANDS AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL AS SURFACE
TEMPS HANG IN THE 30-32F RANGE. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SECONDARY ROADS GIVEN MANY  REMAIN COLD AND SNOW COVERED...MEANING
THAT EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F...MICROSCALE PROCESSES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE SOME QUITE SLICK TRAVEL. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P....BELIEVE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A START AS
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO AROUND 32F OFF SNOW-COVERED ONTARIO.
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SNEAKY 1-3" OF SNOW FALLING IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH A HEADLINE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN LIKELY SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THAT MESS SHOULD END AS A WARM FRONT PASSES AND NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BREAKS INTO THE "WARM" SECTOR ON TUESDAY. STILL...COULD BE
SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR SPOTS OF EASTERN UPPER RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ENDS AS DEW POINTS CRUISE THROUGH THE 30S AND PLENTY OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB REMAINS...WITH FOG ALSO A CONCERN OVER COLD GROUND.
HOWEVER...IT ISN`T IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE ALSO SEE SOME SNEAKY COOLER
AIR FILTER BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO AGAIN SLIP BACK BELOW
FREEZING. THAT TYPE OF SNEAKY SETUP WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON PAR WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S STYLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THEREAFTER...IT`S ALL DOWNHILL IN THE CONFIDENCE DEPARTMENT. FEEL
REALLY COMPELLED TO CARRY A CONSENSUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY (AFTER A PROBABLE BREAK TUESDAY
NIGHT)...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING CHRISTMAS MORNING. 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THROWING DARTS...WITH A GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS EMERGING...FEATURING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH LAKE
HURON...SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA. NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE P-GFS TRACKING
OVERHEAD...NAM OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (HUH?)...AND GGEM NOT CHANGING
ALL THAT MUCH. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES IN THE MIDDLE/EASTERN
SOLUTIONS...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP LAKE HURON (CLIMO-FAVORED
AREA) WHILE DEEPENING...SUGGESTING (AS OUR FORECAST HAS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS) RAIN INITIALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES CRASH INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF ELONGATING DEFORMATION-DRIVEN PRECIP AXIS. AS SUCH...THE
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOME VERY WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTIER WINDS JUST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE
FAR FROM SET IN STONE. WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY...THOUGH WITH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO
SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO WHICH COULD EVEN BRING MORE
RAIN. HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AS THE COLD AIR/BAROCLINICITY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SETUPS TYPICALLY LAYS OUT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER
THAT...IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE MEAN UPPER
PATTERN...DRIVEN IN PART BY OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM SORT OF THROWING THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION FOR A LOOP. CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY
JANUARY WEATHER...FEATURING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING OF COURSE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND THE OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM OR TWO.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS AT THIS RANGE. THUS...
CHANCE WORDING WILL DO FOR DAILY SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...WITH TEMPS AT
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

LOOKING AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
APN...WHERE SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON MAY CONTINUE TO DRAG SOME
LOWER LAKE CLOUDS INTO THAT AREA.

TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A BIG SURGE OF
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR/FORCING UP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN FOR TVC/MBL. BUT PRECIP TYPE IS AN ISSUE AT PLN/APN AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 221132
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
632 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...A PRETTY QUIET DAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WAS AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
BUT WAS DEPARTING NE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW AND WAA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WAS TOO FAR
WEST OF HERE TO BRING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS PUMPING SOME
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FROM THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND HIGH
PRESSURE...UP INTO NRN LOWER ATTM. THE HIGHER CLOUD WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE/IMPULSE RUNNING UP TOWARD SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE BACKSIDE OF THAT CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
MANISTEE AREA/GTV BAY AREAS 7-9AM...BEFORE CONTINUING TO EXIT NE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE EASTERN UPPER PRECIP WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL RIPPLE INTO ONTARIO. THE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TRY AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH MAINLY NRN LOWER. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKING TO MORE OUT OF THE SSE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BETTER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...THE CLOUDS WOULD BE FOCUSED UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE CLEARING...AND THERE
IS HESITATION WHEN SUN IS EXPECTED...WOULD BE PRIMARILY IN NRN LOWER
WHERE THE DRYING IS GREATEST. THIS WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGHER CLOUD FROM THE WAVE PUSHING
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN EXITS.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AND MUCH THICKER CLOUD/PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING AND POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF LOW
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: YOU NAME IT! REALLY STARTING TO FEEL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE HIGH SPOTS/TIP OF THE MITT OF NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SNEAKY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL NORTH OF THE BRIDGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING SNOW/WIND POTENTIAL
TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY EVENING) THROUGH CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING.

ANYONE HAVE A COIN I CAN FLIP? MIGHT BE JUST AS ACCURATE AS FORECAST
"CONSENSUS" HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY MIDWEEK PERIOD. STILL LOTS OF
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS TIME RANGE...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IS THE PERIOD WHEN WE NEED THE MOST ANSWERS GIVEN LOTS OF FUN
FESTIVITIES AND ASSOCIATED TRAVEL CONCERNS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT IS BECOMING CLEARER BY THE MINUTE
(AT LEAST IN MY MIND)...FEATURING A CONCERN REGARDING SOME SNEAKY
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS A SIMILAR CONCERN BUT
JUST OF THE FREEZING RAIN VARIETY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE LOWER 48 IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...FEATURING TREMENDOUS PACIFIC JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS I TYPE THIS...WITH THAT ENERGY GOING INTO
THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS (ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT!) TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING.
THAT FEATURE WILL OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH ALL EYES
ON ADDITIONAL STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OCCLUDING LEAD TROUGH... AND HELPING DEVELOP A NEUTRAL TO EVEN
NEGATIVELY TILTED/CLOSED MID LEVEL RESPONSE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID
MISS VALLEY. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS THE ONE OF MOST CONTENTION...
WITH NUMEROUS OUTCOMES POSSIBLE...AND JUST ABOUT ANY SINGLE ONE
WITHIN REASON...THOUGH THE TRUE ENERGY PLAYER IN THIS WHOLE MESS HAS
YET TO COME ASHORE JUST YET (THOUGH GOES WIND ANALYSIS DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON ITS STRENGTH).

AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING AND JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH OUR SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS...AND CONTINUE TO BELIEVE
BASED ON CLIMO OF SUCH STRONG PACIFIC JETS THAT THIS THING WILL
REALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD GULF COAST...WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET
SUPPORT FAVORING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD LA/MS. THAT
FEATURE SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE
RATE AT WHICH THAT HAPPENS AS WELL AS JUST HOW MUCH OCCLUSION CAN
OCCUR (NEUTRAL VERSUS NEGATIVE TILT) MEANS EVERYTHING FOR OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. A LESS AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL WAVE RESPONSE MEANS A
MORE OPEN WAVE LIKELY PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST...AND PERHAPS
DELIVERING BASICALLY NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE SURFACE LOW MAY WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH ITS UPPER
WAVE...FAVORING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA (OR MAYBE EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN THE ENTIRE EVENT).

CONFUSED YET? I KNOW I AM...AND I LOOK AT WEATHER ALL THE TIME!
LET`S START WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE STUFF. APPROACH OF LEAD CLOSED
WAVE AND  AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST MAY SLOW THE
NORTHWARD MARCH OF PRECIP THANKS TO DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH...BUT
THAT SAME FLOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP SURFACE TEMPS AND THERMAL
PROFILES COLDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN A START AS ALL
SNOW FOR THE HIGHLANDS AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL AS SURFACE
TEMPS HANG IN THE 30-32F RANGE. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SECONDARY ROADS GIVEN MANY  REMAIN COLD AND SNOW COVERED...MEANING
THAT EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F...MICROSCALE PROCESSES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE SOME QUITE SLICK TRAVEL. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P....BELIEVE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A START AS
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO AROUND 32F OFF SNOW-COVERED ONTARIO.
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SNEAKY 1-3" OF SNOW FALLING IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH A HEADLINE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN LIKELY SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THAT MESS SHOULD END AS A WARM FRONT PASSES AND NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BREAKS INTO THE "WARM" SECTOR ON TUESDAY. STILL...COULD BE
SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR SPOTS OF EASTERN UPPER RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ENDS AS DEW POINTS CRUISE THROUGH THE 30S AND PLENTY OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB REMAINS...WITH FOG ALSO A CONCERN OVER COLD GROUND.
HOWEVER...IT ISN`T IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE ALSO SEE SOME SNEAKY COOLER
AIR FILTER BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO AGAIN SLIP BACK BELOW
FREEZING. THAT TYPE OF SNEAKY SETUP WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON PAR WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S STYLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THEREAFTER...IT`S ALL DOWNHILL IN THE CONFIDENCE DEPARTMENT. FEEL
REALLY COMPELLED TO CARRY A CONSENSUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY (AFTER A PROBABLE BREAK TUESDAY
NIGHT)...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING CHRISTMAS MORNING. 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THROWING DARTS...WITH A GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS EMERGING...FEATURING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH LAKE
HURON...SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA. NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE P-GFS TRACKING
OVERHEAD...NAM OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (HUH?)...AND GGEM NOT CHANGING
ALL THAT MUCH. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES IN THE MIDDLE/EASTERN
SOLUTIONS...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP LAKE HURON (CLIMO-FAVORED
AREA) WHILE DEEPENING...SUGGESTING (AS OUR FORECAST HAS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS) RAIN INITIALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES CRASH INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF ELONGATING DEFORMATION-DRIVEN PRECIP AXIS. AS SUCH...THE
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOME VERY WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTIER WINDS JUST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE
FAR FROM SET IN STONE. WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY...THOUGH WITH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO
SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO WHICH COULD EVEN BRING MORE
RAIN. HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AS THE COLD AIR/BAROCLINICITY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SETUPS TYPICALLY LAYS OUT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER
THAT...IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE MEAN UPPER
PATTERN...DRIVEN IN PART BY OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM SORT OF THROWING THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION FOR A LOOP. CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY
JANUARY WEATHER...FEATURING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING OF COURSE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND THE OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM OR TWO.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS AT THIS RANGE. THUS...
CHANCE WORDING WILL DO FOR DAILY SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...WITH TEMPS AT
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...

LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PUNCHED IT`S WAY THROUGH THE AIRPORTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. THESE
CLOUDS WILL EXIT FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
LIKELY PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BEFORE ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN LATER TODAY. THIS EVENING DEEPER MOISTURE
AND RAIN STARTS TO MOVE INTO MBL/TVC...THEN SNOW AT PLN/APN CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN AT APN
LATE. SNOWFALL RATES LOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE
(LESS THAN AN INCH). THE MORE SE TURN TO THE WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR
MVFR STRATUS TO REAPPEAR AT APN EARLIER...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIGS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 1KFT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES...WITH VSBYS GENERALLY MVFR...BUT PERIODICALLY IFR AT
PLN IN SNOW.

WINDS WILL TURN MORE SE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...GENERALLY
6-9KTS. SOME GUSTS REACHING THE TEENS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...A PRETTY QUIET DAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WAS AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
BUT WAS DEPARTING NE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW AND WAA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WAS TOO FAR
WEST OF HERE TO BRING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS PUMPING SOME
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FROM THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND HIGH
PRESSURE...UP INTO NRN LOWER ATTM. THE HIGHER CLOUD WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE/IMPULSE RUNNING UP TOWARD SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE BACKSIDE OF THAT CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
MANISTEE AREA/GTV BAY AREAS 7-9AM...BEFORE CONTINUING TO EXIT NE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE EASTERN UPPER PRECIP WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL RIPPLE INTO ONTARIO. THE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TRY AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH MAINLY NRN LOWER. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKING TO MORE OUT OF THE SSE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BETTER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...THE CLOUDS WOULD BE FOCUSED UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE CLEARING...AND THERE
IS HESITATION WHEN SUN IS EXPECTED...WOULD BE PRIMARILY IN NRN LOWER
WHERE THE DRYING IS GREATEST. THIS WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGHER CLOUD FROM THE WAVE PUSHING
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN EXITS.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AND MUCH THICKER CLOUD/PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING AND POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF LOW
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: YOU NAME IT! REALLY STARTING TO FEEL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE HIGH SPOTS/TIP OF THE MITT OF NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SNEAKY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL NORTH OF THE BRIDGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING SNOW/WIND POTENTIAL
TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY EVENING) THROUGH CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING.

ANYONE HAVE A COIN I CAN FLIP? MIGHT BE JUST AS ACCURATE AS FORECAST
"CONSENSUS" HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY MIDWEEK PERIOD. STILL LOTS OF
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS TIME RANGE...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IS THE PERIOD WHEN WE NEED THE MOST ANSWERS GIVEN LOTS OF FUN
FESTIVITIES AND ASSOCIATED TRAVEL CONCERNS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT IS BECOMING CLEARER BY THE MINUTE
(AT LEAST IN MY MIND)...FEATURING A CONCERN REGARDING SOME SNEAKY
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS A SIMILAR CONCERN BUT
JUST OF THE FREEZING RAIN VARIETY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE LOWER 48 IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...FEATURING TREMENDOUS PACIFIC JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS I TYPE THIS...WITH THAT ENERGY GOING INTO
THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS (ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT!) TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING.
THAT FEATURE WILL OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH ALL EYES
ON ADDITIONAL STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OCCLUDING LEAD TROUGH... AND HELPING DEVELOP A NEUTRAL TO EVEN
NEGATIVELY TILTED/CLOSED MID LEVEL RESPONSE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID
MISS VALLEY. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS THE ONE OF MOST CONTENTION...
WITH NUMEROUS OUTCOMES POSSIBLE...AND JUST ABOUT ANY SINGLE ONE
WITHIN REASON...THOUGH THE TRUE ENERGY PLAYER IN THIS WHOLE MESS HAS
YET TO COME ASHORE JUST YET (THOUGH GOES WIND ANALYSIS DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON ITS STRENGTH).

AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING AND JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH OUR SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS...AND CONTINUE TO BELIEVE
BASED ON CLIMO OF SUCH STRONG PACIFIC JETS THAT THIS THING WILL
REALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD GULF COAST...WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET
SUPPORT FAVORING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD LA/MS. THAT
FEATURE SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE
RATE AT WHICH THAT HAPPENS AS WELL AS JUST HOW MUCH OCCLUSION CAN
OCCUR (NEUTRAL VERSUS NEGATIVE TILT) MEANS EVERYTHING FOR OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. A LESS AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL WAVE RESPONSE MEANS A
MORE OPEN WAVE LIKELY PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST...AND PERHAPS
DELIVERING BASICALLY NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE SURFACE LOW MAY WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH ITS UPPER
WAVE...FAVORING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA (OR MAYBE EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN THE ENTIRE EVENT).

CONFUSED YET? I KNOW I AM...AND I LOOK AT WEATHER ALL THE TIME!
LET`S START WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE STUFF. APPROACH OF LEAD CLOSED
WAVE AND  AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST MAY SLOW THE
NORTHWARD MARCH OF PRECIP THANKS TO DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH...BUT
THAT SAME FLOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP SURFACE TEMPS AND THERMAL
PROFILES COLDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN A START AS ALL
SNOW FOR THE HIGHLANDS AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL AS SURFACE
TEMPS HANG IN THE 30-32F RANGE. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SECONDARY ROADS GIVEN MANY  REMAIN COLD AND SNOW COVERED...MEANING
THAT EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F...MICROSCALE PROCESSES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE SOME QUITE SLICK TRAVEL. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P....BELIEVE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A START AS
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO AROUND 32F OFF SNOW-COVERED ONTARIO.
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SNEAKY 1-3" OF SNOW FALLING IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH A HEADLINE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN LIKELY SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THAT MESS SHOULD END AS A WARM FRONT PASSES AND NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BREAKS INTO THE "WARM" SECTOR ON TUESDAY. STILL...COULD BE
SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR SPOTS OF EASTERN UPPER RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ENDS AS DEW POINTS CRUISE THROUGH THE 30S AND PLENTY OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB REMAINS...WITH FOG ALSO A CONCERN OVER COLD GROUND.
HOWEVER...IT ISN`T IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE ALSO SEE SOME SNEAKY COOLER
AIR FILTER BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO AGAIN SLIP BACK BELOW
FREEZING. THAT TYPE OF SNEAKY SETUP WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON PAR WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S STYLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THEREAFTER...IT`S ALL DOWNHILL IN THE CONFIDENCE DEPARTMENT. FEEL
REALLY COMPELLED TO CARRY A CONSENSUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY (AFTER A PROBABLE BREAK TUESDAY
NIGHT)...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING CHRISTMAS MORNING. 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THROWING DARTS...WITH A GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS EMERGING...FEATURING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH LAKE
HURON...SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA. NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE P-GFS TRACKING
OVERHEAD...NAM OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (HUH?)...AND GGEM NOT CHANGING
ALL THAT MUCH. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES IN THE MIDDLE/EASTERN
SOLUTIONS...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP LAKE HURON (CLIMO-FAVORED
AREA) WHILE DEEPENING...SUGGESTING (AS OUR FORECAST HAS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS) RAIN INITIALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES CRASH INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF ELONGATING DEFORMATION-DRIVEN PRECIP AXIS. AS SUCH...THE
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOME VERY WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTIER WINDS JUST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE
FAR FROM SET IN STONE. WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY...THOUGH WITH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO
SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO WHICH COULD EVEN BRING MORE
RAIN. HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AS THE COLD AIR/BAROCLINICITY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SETUPS TYPICALLY LAYS OUT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER
THAT...IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE MEAN UPPER
PATTERN...DRIVEN IN PART BY OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM SORT OF THROWING THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION FOR A LOOP. CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY
JANUARY WEATHER...FEATURING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING OF COURSE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND THE OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM OR TWO.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS AT THIS RANGE. THUS...
CHANCE WORDING WILL DO FOR DAILY SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...WITH TEMPS AT
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT APN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LLWS OVERNIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING -SN
TO UPPER MI...SOME OF MAY BARELY GRAZE PLN. CIGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL
BRING STRATUS INTO APN. MONDAY EVENING...-RA WILL DEVELOP INTO
MBL/TVC AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH CIGS LOWERING EVENTUALLY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE TO E...MAINLY 10KT OR
LESS. LLWS OVERNIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK ARE AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...A PRETTY QUIET DAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WAS AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
BUT WAS DEPARTING NE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW AND WAA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WAS TOO FAR
WEST OF HERE TO BRING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS PUMPING SOME
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FROM THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND HIGH
PRESSURE...UP INTO NRN LOWER ATTM. THE HIGHER CLOUD WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE/IMPULSE RUNNING UP TOWARD SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE BACKSIDE OF THAT CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
MANISTEE AREA/GTV BAY AREAS 7-9AM...BEFORE CONTINUING TO EXIT NE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE EASTERN UPPER PRECIP WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL RIPPLE INTO ONTARIO. THE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TRY AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH MAINLY NRN LOWER. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKING TO MORE OUT OF THE SSE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BETTER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...THE CLOUDS WOULD BE FOCUSED UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE CLEARING...AND THERE
IS HESITATION WHEN SUN IS EXPECTED...WOULD BE PRIMARILY IN NRN LOWER
WHERE THE DRYING IS GREATEST. THIS WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGHER CLOUD FROM THE WAVE PUSHING
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN EXITS.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AND MUCH THICKER CLOUD/PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING AND POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF LOW
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: YOU NAME IT! REALLY STARTING TO FEEL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE HIGH SPOTS/TIP OF THE MITT OF NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SNEAKY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL NORTH OF THE BRIDGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING SNOW/WIND POTENTIAL
TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY EVENING) THROUGH CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING.

ANYONE HAVE A COIN I CAN FLIP? MIGHT BE JUST AS ACCURATE AS FORECAST
"CONSENSUS" HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY MIDWEEK PERIOD. STILL LOTS OF
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS TIME RANGE...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IS THE PERIOD WHEN WE NEED THE MOST ANSWERS GIVEN LOTS OF FUN
FESTIVITIES AND ASSOCIATED TRAVEL CONCERNS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT IS BECOMING CLEARER BY THE MINUTE
(AT LEAST IN MY MIND)...FEATURING A CONCERN REGARDING SOME SNEAKY
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS A SIMILAR CONCERN BUT
JUST OF THE FREEZING RAIN VARIETY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE LOWER 48 IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...FEATURING TREMENDOUS PACIFIC JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS I TYPE THIS...WITH THAT ENERGY GOING INTO
THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS (ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT!) TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING.
THAT FEATURE WILL OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH ALL EYES
ON ADDITIONAL STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OCCLUDING LEAD TROUGH... AND HELPING DEVELOP A NEUTRAL TO EVEN
NEGATIVELY TILTED/CLOSED MID LEVEL RESPONSE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID
MISS VALLEY. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS THE ONE OF MOST CONTENTION...
WITH NUMEROUS OUTCOMES POSSIBLE...AND JUST ABOUT ANY SINGLE ONE
WITHIN REASON...THOUGH THE TRUE ENERGY PLAYER IN THIS WHOLE MESS HAS
YET TO COME ASHORE JUST YET (THOUGH GOES WIND ANALYSIS DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON ITS STRENGTH).

AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING AND JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH OUR SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS...AND CONTINUE TO BELIEVE
BASED ON CLIMO OF SUCH STRONG PACIFIC JETS THAT THIS THING WILL
REALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD GULF COAST...WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET
SUPPORT FAVORING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD LA/MS. THAT
FEATURE SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE
RATE AT WHICH THAT HAPPENS AS WELL AS JUST HOW MUCH OCCLUSION CAN
OCCUR (NEUTRAL VERSUS NEGATIVE TILT) MEANS EVERYTHING FOR OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. A LESS AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL WAVE RESPONSE MEANS A
MORE OPEN WAVE LIKELY PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST...AND PERHAPS
DELIVERING BASICALLY NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE SURFACE LOW MAY WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH ITS UPPER
WAVE...FAVORING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA (OR MAYBE EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN THE ENTIRE EVENT).

CONFUSED YET? I KNOW I AM...AND I LOOK AT WEATHER ALL THE TIME!
LET`S START WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE STUFF. APPROACH OF LEAD CLOSED
WAVE AND  AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST MAY SLOW THE
NORTHWARD MARCH OF PRECIP THANKS TO DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH...BUT
THAT SAME FLOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP SURFACE TEMPS AND THERMAL
PROFILES COLDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN A START AS ALL
SNOW FOR THE HIGHLANDS AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL AS SURFACE
TEMPS HANG IN THE 30-32F RANGE. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SECONDARY ROADS GIVEN MANY  REMAIN COLD AND SNOW COVERED...MEANING
THAT EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F...MICROSCALE PROCESSES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE SOME QUITE SLICK TRAVEL. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P....BELIEVE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A START AS
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO AROUND 32F OFF SNOW-COVERED ONTARIO.
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SNEAKY 1-3" OF SNOW FALLING IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH A HEADLINE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN LIKELY SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THAT MESS SHOULD END AS A WARM FRONT PASSES AND NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BREAKS INTO THE "WARM" SECTOR ON TUESDAY. STILL...COULD BE
SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR SPOTS OF EASTERN UPPER RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ENDS AS DEW POINTS CRUISE THROUGH THE 30S AND PLENTY OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB REMAINS...WITH FOG ALSO A CONCERN OVER COLD GROUND.
HOWEVER...IT ISN`T IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE ALSO SEE SOME SNEAKY COOLER
AIR FILTER BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO AGAIN SLIP BACK BELOW
FREEZING. THAT TYPE OF SNEAKY SETUP WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON PAR WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S STYLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THEREAFTER...IT`S ALL DOWNHILL IN THE CONFIDENCE DEPARTMENT. FEEL
REALLY COMPELLED TO CARRY A CONSENSUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY (AFTER A PROBABLE BREAK TUESDAY
NIGHT)...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING CHRISTMAS MORNING. 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THROWING DARTS...WITH A GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS EMERGING...FEATURING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH LAKE
HURON...SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA. NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE P-GFS TRACKING
OVERHEAD...NAM OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (HUH?)...AND GGEM NOT CHANGING
ALL THAT MUCH. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES IN THE MIDDLE/EASTERN
SOLUTIONS...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP LAKE HURON (CLIMO-FAVORED
AREA) WHILE DEEPENING...SUGGESTING (AS OUR FORECAST HAS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS) RAIN INITIALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES CRASH INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF ELONGATING DEFORMATION-DRIVEN PRECIP AXIS. AS SUCH...THE
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOME VERY WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTIER WINDS JUST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE
FAR FROM SET IN STONE. WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY...THOUGH WITH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO
SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO WHICH COULD EVEN BRING MORE
RAIN. HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AS THE COLD AIR/BAROCLINICITY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SETUPS TYPICALLY LAYS OUT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER
THAT...IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE MEAN UPPER
PATTERN...DRIVEN IN PART BY OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM SORT OF THROWING THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION FOR A LOOP. CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY
JANUARY WEATHER...FEATURING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING OF COURSE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND THE OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM OR TWO.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS AT THIS RANGE. THUS...
CHANCE WORDING WILL DO FOR DAILY SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...WITH TEMPS AT
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT APN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LLWS OVERNIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING -SN
TO UPPER MI...SOME OF MAY BARELY GRAZE PLN. CIGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL
BRING STRATUS INTO APN. MONDAY EVENING...-RA WILL DEVELOP INTO
MBL/TVC AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH CIGS LOWERING EVENTUALLY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE TO E...MAINLY 10KT OR
LESS. LLWS OVERNIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK ARE AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...A PRETTY QUIET DAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WAS AFFECTING EASTERN UPPER
BUT WAS DEPARTING NE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW AND WAA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WAS TOO FAR
WEST OF HERE TO BRING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW AND HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUD. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WAS PUMPING SOME
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FROM THE BACKSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND HIGH
PRESSURE...UP INTO NRN LOWER ATTM. THE HIGHER CLOUD WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE/IMPULSE RUNNING UP TOWARD SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE BACKSIDE OF THAT CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
MANISTEE AREA/GTV BAY AREAS 7-9AM...BEFORE CONTINUING TO EXIT NE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE EASTERN UPPER PRECIP WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID LEVEL RIPPLE INTO ONTARIO. THE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TRY AND DISSIPATE WITH THE ADVECTION OF
THE DRIER AIR THROUGH MAINLY NRN LOWER. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
BACKING TO MORE OUT OF THE SSE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFF LAKE HURON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BETTER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. IF THESE CLOUDS
DO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES...THE CLOUDS WOULD BE FOCUSED UP INTO EASTERN
UPPER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING. THE CLEARING...AND THERE
IS HESITATION WHEN SUN IS EXPECTED...WOULD BE PRIMARILY IN NRN LOWER
WHERE THE DRYING IS GREATEST. THIS WOULD OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS THE HIGHER CLOUD FROM THE WAVE PUSHING
INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN EXITS.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AND MUCH THICKER CLOUD/PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING
(MORE ON THAT BELOW). THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY
DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEPENING AND POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF LOW
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: YOU NAME IT! REALLY STARTING TO FEEL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE HIGH SPOTS/TIP OF THE MITT OF NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SNEAKY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PERHAPS
SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL NORTH OF THE BRIDGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING SNOW/WIND POTENTIAL
TOWARD CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY EVENING) THROUGH CHRISTMAS
MORNING...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING.

ANYONE HAVE A COIN I CAN FLIP? MIGHT BE JUST AS ACCURATE AS FORECAST
"CONSENSUS" HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY MIDWEEK PERIOD. STILL LOTS OF
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS TIME RANGE...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IS THE PERIOD WHEN WE NEED THE MOST ANSWERS GIVEN LOTS OF FUN
FESTIVITIES AND ASSOCIATED TRAVEL CONCERNS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT IS BECOMING CLEARER BY THE MINUTE
(AT LEAST IN MY MIND)...FEATURING A CONCERN REGARDING SOME SNEAKY
SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BRIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS A SIMILAR CONCERN BUT
JUST OF THE FREEZING RAIN VARIETY INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

THE PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY THROUGH THE LOWER 48 IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...FEATURING TREMENDOUS PACIFIC JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS I TYPE THIS...WITH THAT ENERGY GOING INTO
THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS (ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT!) TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING.
THAT FEATURE WILL OCCLUDE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH ALL EYES
ON ADDITIONAL STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
THE OCCLUDING LEAD TROUGH... AND HELPING DEVELOP A NEUTRAL TO EVEN
NEGATIVELY TILTED/CLOSED MID LEVEL RESPONSE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID
MISS VALLEY. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS THE ONE OF MOST CONTENTION...
WITH NUMEROUS OUTCOMES POSSIBLE...AND JUST ABOUT ANY SINGLE ONE
WITHIN REASON...THOUGH THE TRUE ENERGY PLAYER IN THIS WHOLE MESS HAS
YET TO COME ASHORE JUST YET (THOUGH GOES WIND ANALYSIS DOES SEEM TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON ITS STRENGTH).

AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING AND JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH OUR SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS...AND CONTINUE TO BELIEVE
BASED ON CLIMO OF SUCH STRONG PACIFIC JETS THAT THIS THING WILL
REALLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD GULF COAST...WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET
SUPPORT FAVORING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE TOWARD LA/MS. THAT
FEATURE SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING...THOUGH THE
RATE AT WHICH THAT HAPPENS AS WELL AS JUST HOW MUCH OCCLUSION CAN
OCCUR (NEUTRAL VERSUS NEGATIVE TILT) MEANS EVERYTHING FOR OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. A LESS AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL WAVE RESPONSE MEANS A
MORE OPEN WAVE LIKELY PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST...AND PERHAPS
DELIVERING BASICALLY NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED/CLOSED MID LEVEL SOLUTION SUGGESTS
THE SURFACE LOW MAY WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARD BENEATH ITS UPPER
WAVE...FAVORING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA (OR MAYBE EVEN JUST PLAIN RAIN THE ENTIRE EVENT).

CONFUSED YET? I KNOW I AM...AND I LOOK AT WEATHER ALL THE TIME!
LET`S START WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE STUFF. APPROACH OF LEAD CLOSED
WAVE AND  AXIS OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO EXPANDING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST MAY SLOW THE
NORTHWARD MARCH OF PRECIP THANKS TO DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH...BUT
THAT SAME FLOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP SURFACE TEMPS AND THERMAL
PROFILES COLDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN A START AS ALL
SNOW FOR THE HIGHLANDS AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WHERE LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL AS SURFACE
TEMPS HANG IN THE 30-32F RANGE. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
SECONDARY ROADS GIVEN MANY  REMAIN COLD AND SNOW COVERED...MEANING
THAT EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32F...MICROSCALE PROCESSES ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE SOME QUITE SLICK TRAVEL. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P....BELIEVE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A START AS
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW
AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO AROUND 32F OFF SNOW-COVERED ONTARIO.
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SNEAKY 1-3" OF SNOW FALLING IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH A HEADLINE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN LIKELY SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

ALL OF THAT MESS SHOULD END AS A WARM FRONT PASSES AND NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BREAKS INTO THE "WARM" SECTOR ON TUESDAY. STILL...COULD BE
SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR SPOTS OF EASTERN UPPER RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
ENDS AS DEW POINTS CRUISE THROUGH THE 30S AND PLENTY OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB REMAINS...WITH FOG ALSO A CONCERN OVER COLD GROUND.
HOWEVER...IT ISN`T IMPOSSIBLE THAT WE ALSO SEE SOME SNEAKY COOLER
AIR FILTER BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO AGAIN SLIP BACK BELOW
FREEZING. THAT TYPE OF SNEAKY SETUP WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON PAR WITH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S STYLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THEREAFTER...IT`S ALL DOWNHILL IN THE CONFIDENCE DEPARTMENT. FEEL
REALLY COMPELLED TO CARRY A CONSENSUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY (AFTER A PROBABLE BREAK TUESDAY
NIGHT)...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING CHRISTMAS MORNING. 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE NOT QUITE AS BAD AS THROWING DARTS...WITH A GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS EMERGING...FEATURING A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH LAKE
HURON...SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW OVER AT LEAST
PART OF THE CWA. NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE P-GFS TRACKING
OVERHEAD...NAM OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (HUH?)...AND GGEM NOT CHANGING
ALL THAT MUCH. HAVE TO BELIEVE THE TRUTH LIES IN THE MIDDLE/EASTERN
SOLUTIONS...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING UP LAKE HURON (CLIMO-FAVORED
AREA) WHILE DEEPENING...SUGGESTING (AS OUR FORECAST HAS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS) RAIN INITIALLY CHANGING TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES CRASH INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF ELONGATING DEFORMATION-DRIVEN PRECIP AXIS. AS SUCH...THE
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOME VERY WET
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTIER WINDS JUST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE
FAR FROM SET IN STONE. WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY...THOUGH WITH SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO
SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED SCENARIO WHICH COULD EVEN BRING MORE
RAIN. HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AS THE COLD AIR/BAROCLINICITY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SETUPS TYPICALLY LAYS OUT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER
THAT...IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE MEAN UPPER
PATTERN...DRIVEN IN PART BY OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM SORT OF THROWING THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION FOR A LOOP. CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING THAT WE
WILL SEE AN ABRUPT RETURN TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY
JANUARY WEATHER...FEATURING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING OF COURSE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND THE OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEM OR TWO.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING...WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS AT THIS RANGE. THUS...
CHANCE WORDING WILL DO FOR DAILY SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...WITH TEMPS AT
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT APN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LLWS OVERNIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING -SN
TO UPPER MI...SOME OF MAY BARELY GRAZE PLN. CIGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL
BRING STRATUS INTO APN. MONDAY EVENING...-RA WILL DEVELOP INTO
MBL/TVC AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH CIGS LOWERING EVENTUALLY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE TO E...MAINLY 10KT OR
LESS. LLWS OVERNIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK ARE AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220451
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE FLITTING BY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MI
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW...BUT HAS BEEN
MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE MI COAST (ISQ). POPS WERE
BOOSTED IN EASTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT TO LIKELY...CHANCE POPS WERE
BROUGHT SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER...AND MIXED
POPS WERE MENTIONED NEAR LAKE MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT APN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LLWS OVERNIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING -SN
TO UPPER MI...SOME OF MAY BARELY GRAZE PLN. CIGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL
BRING STRATUS INTO APN. MONDAY EVENING...-RA WILL DEVELOP INTO
MBL/TVC AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH CIGS LOWERING EVENTUALLY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE TO E...MAINLY 10KT OR
LESS. LLWS OVERNIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK ARE AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 220451
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1151 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE FLITTING BY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MI
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW...BUT HAS BEEN
MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE MI COAST (ISQ). POPS WERE
BOOSTED IN EASTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT TO LIKELY...CHANCE POPS WERE
BROUGHT SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER...AND MIXED
POPS WERE MENTIONED NEAR LAKE MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT APN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LLWS OVERNIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING -SN
TO UPPER MI...SOME OF MAY BARELY GRAZE PLN. CIGS WILL BE VFR UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN INCREASING SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON WILL
BRING STRATUS INTO APN. MONDAY EVENING...-RA WILL DEVELOP INTO
MBL/TVC AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH CIGS LOWERING EVENTUALLY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE TO E...MAINLY 10KT OR
LESS. LLWS OVERNIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK ARE AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220309
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE FLITTING BY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MI
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW...BUT HAS BEEN
MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE MI COAST (ISQ). POPS WERE
BOOSTED IN EASTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT TO LIKELY...CHANCE POPS WERE
BROUGHT SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER...AND MIXED
POPS WERE MENTIONED NEAR LAKE MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...AND APN BECOMING
MVFR ON MONDAY. LLWS LATE TONIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE ARE SOME TATTERS OF MVFR CIGS IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN MI. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...AS SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON GET A LITTLE STRONGER...A
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY INTRUDE ON APN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE...MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. LLWS
LATE TONIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220309
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE FLITTING BY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MI
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW...BUT HAS BEEN
MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE MI COAST (ISQ). POPS WERE
BOOSTED IN EASTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT TO LIKELY...CHANCE POPS WERE
BROUGHT SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER...AND MIXED
POPS WERE MENTIONED NEAR LAKE MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...AND APN BECOMING
MVFR ON MONDAY. LLWS LATE TONIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE ARE SOME TATTERS OF MVFR CIGS IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN MI. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...AS SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON GET A LITTLE STRONGER...A
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY INTRUDE ON APN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE...MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. LLWS
LATE TONIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 212335
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...AND APN BECOMING
MVFR ON MONDAY. LLWS LATE TONIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE ARE SOME TATTERS OF MVFR CIGS IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN MI. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...AS SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON GET A LITTLE STRONGER...A
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY INTRUDE ON APN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE...MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. LLWS
LATE TONIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 212335
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...AND APN BECOMING
MVFR ON MONDAY. LLWS LATE TONIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE ARE SOME TATTERS OF MVFR CIGS IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN MI. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...AS SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON GET A LITTLE STRONGER...A
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY INTRUDE ON APN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE...MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. LLWS
LATE TONIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 212106
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

CONTINUED MAINLY MVFR CIGS TODAY AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
BRIEF FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL DRIER
AIR THEN TRIES TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT WITH
ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR DECK OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WIND SHIELD REMAINS LOW.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 212106
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH
WOODS.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME.

MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

CONTINUED MAINLY MVFR CIGS TODAY AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
BRIEF FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL DRIER
AIR THEN TRIES TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT WITH
ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR DECK OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WIND SHIELD REMAINS LOW.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 211905
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
205 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS
MORNING...NAMELY FROM THE HOUGHTON LAKE AREA. APX RADAR IS NOW
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS FROM BELLAIRE TO GRAYLING NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF GAYLORD. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES (1 AND A HALF TO 2 MILES) IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LIGHTNESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

CONTINUED MAINLY MVFR CIGS TODAY AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
BRIEF FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL DRIER
AIR THEN TRIES TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT WITH
ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR DECK OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WIND SHIELD REMAINS LOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 211905
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
205 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS
MORNING...NAMELY FROM THE HOUGHTON LAKE AREA. APX RADAR IS NOW
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS FROM BELLAIRE TO GRAYLING NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF GAYLORD. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES (1 AND A HALF TO 2 MILES) IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LIGHTNESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

CONTINUED MAINLY MVFR CIGS TODAY AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
BRIEF FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. LOW LEVEL DRIER
AIR THEN TRIES TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT WITH
ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR DECK OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WIND SHIELD REMAINS LOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 211626
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1126 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS
MORNING...NAMELY FROM THE HOUGHTON LAKE AREA. APX RADAR IS NOW
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS FROM BELLAIRE TO GRAYLING NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF GAYLORD. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES (1 AND A HALF TO 2 MILES) IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LIGHTNESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...MORE MVFR AND SOME MORNING LIGHT FOG...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. STRATUS HAS WORKED IT`S
WAY ACROSS ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.
HOWEVER...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED UP INTO THE MBL
AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE PRESSING UP THROUGH NW LOWER. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A
LITTLE BIT TOUGHER AT APN...PERTAINING TO DURATION OF MVFR AND
COVERAGE...BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL GET IN ON IT FOR AT LEAST AWHILE
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS.
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM
FRONT WITH ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR...LEAVING A DECK OF
MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WS...LOW.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 211626
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1126 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS
MORNING...NAMELY FROM THE HOUGHTON LAKE AREA. APX RADAR IS NOW
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS FROM BELLAIRE TO GRAYLING NORTH TO JUST
SOUTH OF GAYLORD. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES (1 AND A HALF TO 2 MILES) IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL DUE TO THE LIGHTNESS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...MORE MVFR AND SOME MORNING LIGHT FOG...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. STRATUS HAS WORKED IT`S
WAY ACROSS ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.
HOWEVER...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED UP INTO THE MBL
AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE PRESSING UP THROUGH NW LOWER. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A
LITTLE BIT TOUGHER AT APN...PERTAINING TO DURATION OF MVFR AND
COVERAGE...BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL GET IN ON IT FOR AT LEAST AWHILE
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS.
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM
FRONT WITH ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR...LEAVING A DECK OF
MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WS...LOW.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 211109
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
609 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...MORE MVFR AND SOME MORNING LIGHT FOG...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. STRATUS HAS WORKED IT`S
WAY ACROSS ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.
HOWEVER...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED UP INTO THE MBL
AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE PRESSING UP THROUGH NW LOWER. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A
LITTLE BIT TOUGHER AT APN...PERTAINING TO DURATION OF MVFR AND
COVERAGE...BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL GET IN ON IT FOR AT LEAST AWHILE
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS.
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM
FRONT WITH ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR...LEAVING A DECK OF
MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WS...LOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 211109
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
609 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...MORE MVFR AND SOME MORNING LIGHT FOG...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. STRATUS HAS WORKED IT`S
WAY ACROSS ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.
HOWEVER...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED UP INTO THE MBL
AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE PRESSING UP THROUGH NW LOWER. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A
LITTLE BIT TOUGHER AT APN...PERTAINING TO DURATION OF MVFR AND
COVERAGE...BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL GET IN ON IT FOR AT LEAST AWHILE
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS.
LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS IN THIS EVENING BEHIND A WARM
FRONT WITH ALL TAFS PROBABLY GOING TO VFR...LEAVING A DECK OF
MID/UPPER CLOUDS.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND..AND WILL THUS NOT
INCLUDE IT ATTM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS
AND WS...LOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210739
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
239 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN VFR AND VFR...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. A COMBINATION OF MVFR
AND VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY SEEN ALL UP AND DOWN THE NW LOWER
COAST...AS WELL AS IT PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (AFFECTING APN ATTM).
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SEEN LIFTING NE THROUGH APN WHICH WILL LIKELY
ERODE THAT LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS. STILL CLOUDY ACROSS NW LOWER IN
BETTER MOISTURE FEED IN SRLY FLOW. HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE WI/SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
THIS IS GOING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF FLURRIES
AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS...WHERE
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS
IN THIS EVENING...AND ALL TAF SITES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS DEPART...LEAVING A DECK OF SOLID MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THIS IS
ALL DUE TO AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND WS...LOW.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 210739
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
239 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...STRATUS ISSUES CONTINUE AND NOW LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...STILL IN A WAITING GAME FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. WE HAVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MINOR UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SEEN WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION...WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
UNFLINCHED. THE BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS TRYING TO WORK WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT HASN`T QUITE CAPTURED MUCH OF IT JUST YET. MEANWHILE
WELL UPSTREAM...THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUNCHING THE
INITIAL STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PAC
NW. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...QUITE A BIT OF MISBEHAVING STRATUS REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO GET UNDER CONTROL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH SUDDEN
BURST/EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH RAPIDLY BLEW THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON/NE LOWER
COASTLINE. A LITTLE BIT BETTER SW FLOW HAS HOWEVER DRAWN MORE
STRATUS INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH ALSO COVERED MUCH
OF NW LOWER. ACROSS NE LOWER...JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MORE
HIGHER CLOUD THAN ANYTHING...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
FINALLY...A POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE WI/SW
LOWER...WAS BEING DRAGGED UP TOWARDS OUR SRN CWA (M-55). THIS AREAS
WAS SEEING SOME FLURRIES/POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SO...ONE
CAN SEE THE COMPLEXITIES OF WHAT IS SEEMINGLY A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PERIOD FOR NRN MICHIGAN. THERE`S ALWAYS SOMETHING GOING ON.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: STRATUS EVOLUTION...YET AGAIN. PLUS...DEALING
WITH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND THE CHANCE FOR OUR
NRN AREAS (MAINLY EASTERN UPPER) SEEING SOME PRECIP TONIGHT.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

FIRST WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY EXITS EAST TODAY...WITH THE SECONDARY
WEAK WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL GET LIFTED NE...AND THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO WHERE
STRATUS (SHOULD) CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ACROSS NW LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW
LOWER ALSO EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN LOWER...NOT ONLY
SUBSTANTIATING THAT STRATUS CLAIM...BUT WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A BRIEF
FLURRY OR LIGHT SPRINKLE/FREEZING RAIN TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE). WHILE WE DO SEE INCREASES IN OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS...THE MAIN INCREASES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
TO OUR WEST. THIS IS DUE TO BACKING FLOW FROM WEAKER DAKOTAS WAVE
LIFTING NE...AND STRONG PACIFIC ENERGY CRASHING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS BACKS THE OVERALL FLOW AND STRENGTHENS IT...FOCUSING
THE STRONGER FORCING (WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) FURTHER WEST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION OUT WEST
OF US. ALL THAT SAID...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW (FEW HOURS) WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SATURATED FOR WHAT FCST THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EASTERN
UPPER OF UNDER AN INCH...PROBABLY LESS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. COULD ALSO SEE THE CONTINUATION OF FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER...ALONG JUST NW
LOWER (DUE TO THE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND LEAVING NE LOWER OUT OF THE WEATHER PICTURE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WHATEVER STRATUS GETS IN THERE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...COULD BE SWEPT AWAY OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS IN THE 30 TO 35F RANGE FOR MOST TODAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S TO AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S IN NE LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SMALL RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE NOTHING OF NOTE.

PART 1 OF OUR WEEK-LONG STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS SET TO ARRIVE
FOR THE START OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK WITH THINGS ALREADY WELL SET IN
MOTION UPSTREAM. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH DOWNSTREAM ADDITIONAL DEEP TROUGHING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...DRIVING QUITE THE NOTABLY STRONG JET CORE
(GOES WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 180 KNOTS) TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. FIRST "PIECE" OF THIS JET IS COMING ASHORE AT THE MOMENT AND
WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING WEAKISH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CARVE OUT A
MODEST MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS WELL AGREED-UPON BY JUST ABOUT
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE
TRENDS NOTED THE PAST 36 HOURS. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OUR LOCAL WEATHER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
(SOMETHING THAT CANNOT BE SAID INTO MIDWEEK).

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SORT OF SITS IN NO MAN`S LAND FOR MOST OF MONDAY
AS WE SEE MODEST DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE U.P....ALL WHILE WE AWAIT STRONGER UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST. AS SUCH...JUST CAN`T SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP THREAT FOR ANY AREA...SAVE FOR MAYBE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF THE STRAITS VERY EARLY ON. INSTEAD THERE
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE FILTERED SUN AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUNTED NORTH WHILE WEE ONLY SOME THICKER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ROLL OVERHEAD.

THAT WILL ALL CHANGE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE CLOSING SYSTEM
TO OUR WEST NUDGES EAST...WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE
COMPLIMENTED BY A NICE SLUG OF DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT
AND EVEN SOME EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT TO DRIVE A BAND OF PRECIP FROM
THE MID MISS VALLEY NORTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DEEPENING GULF
TAP WILL HELP MATTERS TO SOME EXTENT...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING UP
TOWARD 0.60 INCHES...THOUGH NOTHING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FROM A THERMAL REGIME/PRECIP TYPE PERSPECTIVE...
WARMING LOW LEVELS VIA STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION MAKE FOR A
CLASSIC "LIQUID" LOOK TO THE PRECIP...WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OF 2-
4C FROM 800-925MB...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MELT ANY SNOW ALOFT.
THAT THERMAL REGIME WILL BE INITIALLY A BIT COLDER TO THE NORTH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT EASTERN UPPER MAY GET IN ON A
PERIOD OF SOME SNOW BEFORE SAID WARM NOSE WINS THE BATTLE...BUT
DON`T FORESEE ANY BIG TIME ACCUMULATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT
AROUND 32F. IN ADDITION...WITH PRECIP COMING AT NIGHT AND BACK ROADS
IN MANY SPOTS SNOW COVERED...COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR CLASSIC CASE OF
FROZEN BACK ROADS WHILE SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES WITH A LOSS OF FORCING...WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE AS WE ARRIVE IN THE "WARM" SECTOR...SUCH AS IT IS.
DESPITE WARMTH ALOFT...DON`T SEE SURFACE TEMPS BEING OVERLY WARM
(MAINLY IN THE 30S) WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND LIKELY STILL A GOOD
CHUNK OF LOW CLOUDS STUCK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH...AREAS OF OR EVEN WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

PART 2 OF OUR STORM: WILL SANTA DELIVER FOR THE SNOW LOVERS NEAR
CHRISTMAS...OR WILL THE GRINCH WIN OUT THIS YEAR? THAT IS THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK...WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUITE CONTINUING TO OFFER AN EVEN LARGER PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS AS TO
JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD. THE KEY TO THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE
TRUE STRONG JET CORE AND EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY
WELL EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ENERGY WILL PLOW
ASHORE IN THE STRONG PACIFIC "FIRE HOSE" PATTERN...DIVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND HELPING FURTHER AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN ON THE HEELS OF 150+ KNOTS OF UPPER JET HELP DIVING TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO. HATE TO TRY TO ESTABLISH ANY TRENDS EVEN AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BUT MY GUT FEELING BASED ON HISTORY AND GUIDANCE TRENDS
IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONGLY DIGGING SYSTEM...SUFFICIENT TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WE PUSH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.

THE SHEER AMOUNT OF JET ENERGY STRONGLY ARGUES IN THAT DIRECTION AS
DOES HISTORY OF SUCH SETUPS... WITH MANY ANALOGS (THOUGH STILL NO
BIG MATCHES) SUGGESTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WRAPPING INTO THE EXISTING MID-
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THAT SETUP ALONE HAS TO GIVE ONE PAUSE AS IT AT
LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE GULF...LIFTING NORTH AND EITHER WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL CYCLONE...OR BEING SLING-SHOTTED NORTHWARD QUICKLY
INTO CANADA. AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TIMING!!
SHOULD THE UPPER WAVE (YET TO BE WELL MODELED ON THE UPPER AIR
NETWORK I MIGHT ADD) SLOW DOWN AND DIG BY JUST 6-12 MORE HOURS...
THIS WHOLE BOMBOGENESIS THING MAY BE AWASH...AS HAS BEEN HINTED AT
BY A NUMBER OF GEFS/EPS/NAEFS MEMBERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
THOUGH OF COURSE MANY OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW QUITE THE SLEW OF
DIFFERING OPINIONS...INCLUDING THE EURO CAVING WITH ITS CONTINUITY
RECENTLY. IN ALL HONESTY...THIS REMAINS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...
WITH CHANGES STILL TO BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT
OF A DUD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...REALLY NOT SURE HOW TO PLAY THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...OR EVEN INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
FOR THAT MATTER...WITH A WHOLE SMORGASBORD OF POSSIBILITIES.
AGAIN...GUT FEELING HAS TO KICK IN SOMEWHERE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE INITIALLY WILL BE IN THE STRONGER CAMP OF
POSSIBILITIES...OPENING THE DOOR THAT OUR SECONDARY WAVE MAY WELL
END UP FARTHER EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR
THOSE PERIODS...AND EVEN IF WE SEE AN EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY...
HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN ROTATING BACK INTO THE
AREA BENEATH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. SHOULD ENOUGH COLD AIR BLEED INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF TO OUR WEST...CAN SEE A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST TO SOME
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LIMITED WRAPAROUND PRECIP FOR
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF OUR SYSTEM THINS
MOISTURE QUICKLY. STILL WORTH AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION...BUT WINDS
MAY NOT TURN OUT ALL THAT BAD WITH AN EASTWARD TREND EITHER...AS THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT ENDS UP IN ONTARIO OR QUEBEC. THIS WHOLE FORECAST
IS REALLY JUST A MESS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
YANKED ALTOGETHER INTO MIDWEEK IF MORE EASTERLY SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WHOLE CHRISTMAS STORM THING SHAKES OUT...ONE
THING LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. ANY COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE REALLY COLD AIR BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND
OUR FLOW STAYS PROGRESS. THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WITH
ANOTHER HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS MODELED AT THIS POINT...ALL THE WAY
FROM ANOTHER RAIN MAKER HERE TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM. DON`T WANT
TO EVEN HAZARD A TRUE GUESS JUST YET ABOUT THAT ONE...BUT AM
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT A MORE DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...SNOW
LOVERS - DON`T LOSE HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN VFR AND VFR...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. A COMBINATION OF MVFR
AND VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY SEEN ALL UP AND DOWN THE NW LOWER
COAST...AS WELL AS IT PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (AFFECTING APN ATTM).
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SEEN LIFTING NE THROUGH APN WHICH WILL LIKELY
ERODE THAT LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS. STILL CLOUDY ACROSS NW LOWER IN
BETTER MOISTURE FEED IN SRLY FLOW. HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE WI/SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
THIS IS GOING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF FLURRIES
AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS...WHERE
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS
IN THIS EVENING...AND ALL TAF SITES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS DEPART...LEAVING A DECK OF SOLID MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THIS IS
ALL DUE TO AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND WS...LOW.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1251 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS THINNED OUT ENOUGH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE
QUICK EVENING COOLING AT PLN/GLR/GRAYLING. TEMPS WERE REDUCED IN
THIS AREA...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN EASTERN UPPER.

00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED HOW THIN THE MOIST LAYER HAD
BECOME...WITH A 5-10MB THICK CLOUD LAYER CENTERED AT 895MB.
HOWEVER...SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS GETTING UNDERWAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. THAT WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TOWARD MORNING. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...SPOTTY FLURRIES AND/OR FZDZ HAVE BEEN SEEN IN OBS AND
REPORTS OUT OF SW LOWER MI AND SE WI. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SUCH
INTO SW SECTIONS (SW OF A LAKE CITY-TVC-LELAND LINE) AFTER
08Z/4AM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCH OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE
SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW UP IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN VFR AND VFR...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. A COMBINATION OF MVFR
AND VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY SEEN ALL UP AND DOWN THE NW LOWER
COAST...AS WELL AS IT PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (AFFECTING APN ATTM).
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SEEN LIFTING NE THROUGH APN WHICH WILL LIKELY
ERODE THAT LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS. STILL CLOUDY ACROSS NW LOWER IN
BETTER MOISTURE FEED IN SRLY FLOW. HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE WI/SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
THIS IS GOING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF FLURRIES
AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS...WHERE
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS
IN THIS EVENING...AND ALL TAF SITES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS DEPART...LEAVING A DECK OF SOLID MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THIS IS
ALL DUE TO AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND WS...LOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 210551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1251 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS THINNED OUT ENOUGH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE
QUICK EVENING COOLING AT PLN/GLR/GRAYLING. TEMPS WERE REDUCED IN
THIS AREA...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN EASTERN UPPER.

00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED HOW THIN THE MOIST LAYER HAD
BECOME...WITH A 5-10MB THICK CLOUD LAYER CENTERED AT 895MB.
HOWEVER...SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS GETTING UNDERWAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. THAT WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TOWARD MORNING. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...SPOTTY FLURRIES AND/OR FZDZ HAVE BEEN SEEN IN OBS AND
REPORTS OUT OF SW LOWER MI AND SE WI. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SUCH
INTO SW SECTIONS (SW OF A LAKE CITY-TVC-LELAND LINE) AFTER
08Z/4AM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCH OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE
SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW UP IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN VFR AND VFR...

THE DIFFICULT STRATUS FORECAST CONTINUES. A COMBINATION OF MVFR
AND VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY SEEN ALL UP AND DOWN THE NW LOWER
COAST...AS WELL AS IT PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (AFFECTING APN ATTM).
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SEEN LIFTING NE THROUGH APN WHICH WILL LIKELY
ERODE THAT LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS. STILL CLOUDY ACROSS NW LOWER IN
BETTER MOISTURE FEED IN SRLY FLOW. HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SE WI/SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
THIS IS GOING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME BRIEF FLURRIES
AND/OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NW LOWER TAFS...WHERE
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THEN FILLS
IN THIS EVENING...AND ALL TAF SITES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS DEPART...LEAVING A DECK OF SOLID MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THIS IS
ALL DUE TO AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
END WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SFC. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC WIND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AND WS...LOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 210251
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
951 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

LOW CLOUDS THINNED OUT ENOUGH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE
QUICK EVENING COOLING AT PLN/GLR/GRAYLING. TEMPS WERE REDUCED IN
THIS AREA...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE IN EASTERN UPPER.

00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED HOW THIN THE MOIST LAYER HAD
BECOME...WITH A 5-10MB THICK CLOUD LAYER CENTERED AT 895MB.
HOWEVER...SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS GETTING UNDERWAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. THAT WILL BRING MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TOWARD MORNING. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...SPOTTY FLURRIES AND/OR FZDZ HAVE BEEN SEEN IN OBS AND
REPORTS OUT OF SW LOWER MI AND SE WI. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SUCH
INTO SW SECTIONS (SW OF A LAKE CITY-TVC-LELAND LINE) AFTER
08Z/4AM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCH OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE
SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW UP IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. CIGS HAVE BUBBLED
UP TO VFR THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD TEND TO DESCEND BACK TO MVFR
LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WELL
DOWNSTATE EARLY THIS EVENING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO DRIFT
NORTH TOWARD MBL/TVC VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

CALM WINDS TONIGHT...LIGHT S TO SE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 202347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCH OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE
SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW UP IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. CIGS HAVE BUBBLED
UP TO VFR THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD TEND TO DESCEND BACK TO MVFR
LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WELL
DOWNSTATE EARLY THIS EVENING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO DRIFT
NORTH TOWARD MBL/TVC VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

CALM WINDS TONIGHT...LIGHT S TO SE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 202347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCH OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE
SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH
CLOUD COVER SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW UP IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. CIGS HAVE BUBBLED
UP TO VFR THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD TEND TO DESCEND BACK TO MVFR
LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME -DZ/-FZDZ WELL
DOWNSTATE EARLY THIS EVENING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO DRIFT
NORTH TOWARD MBL/TVC VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

CALM WINDS TONIGHT...LIGHT S TO SE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 202114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCE OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO SUBSTANTIAL
WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW UP IN THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND WITH CONTINUED
STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
APN...THOUGH CIGS AT MBL MAY CONTINUE TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR. TREND
WILL BE FOR STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET INTO APN AT
SOME POINT LATER SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 202114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SITTING SQUARELY OVERHEAD WILL INCH OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...DESPITE
LIMITED LIFTING OF THAT CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR TODAY.
AS THE WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...THESE CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID CLOUD MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH (PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS AN EXTREMELY
TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A RAPID FALL (DUE TO CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS). FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW (THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS BY THE EVENING SHIFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
REQUIRED).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING WET...

OVERVIEW: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS PLOWING INTO
THE WEST COAST TODAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO THE PAC NW...A
PIECE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...A BIT OF A
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WITH THE STRONGEST BRANCE OF
THE WESTERLIES RUNNING THROUGH THE SRN STATES. A BIT MORE
DISORGANIZED AND "RIPPLED" ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH A COUPLE SMALL
SCALE SHORT WAVES...ONE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. NO SUBSTANTIAL
WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST AN AXIS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION AND A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW UP IN THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART. BUT STRATUS ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE REGION AS SW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PULLS UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NRN MICHIGAN IN EARNEST. MAY BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY...BUT I
THINK THAT WILL BE FLEETING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WILL START TO SEE THE FIRST GLIMPSE OF
OUR MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MY MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND STARTS TO DIG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
A BETTER IDEA OF JUST HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD FOR MIDWEST. BUT IN THE
INTERIM...INITIAL WARM ADVECTION FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
/RESULTING LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIPS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NRN REACHES OF THIS CWA. INHERITED
FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK IN THIS REGARD WITH ONLY MINOR
COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OVER
JUST HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VARIOUS MODEL OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RELEVANT FEATURES. BUT AT
THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP A RAIN MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION UPPER JET FORCING THAT
NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY...WE SHOULD GET A
NICE SLUG OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER) HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES
OF DRY SLOTTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE SNOW MAKER FRIDAY.

NEWEST MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVEN FARTHER WEST...NOW RUNNING NORTHWARD THROUGH MICHIGAN WITH ONLY
A 983MB CENTER WHILE OVERHEAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ECMWF HAS PRESSURE
DROPPING TO 970MB OVER JAMES BAY WHILE THE GFS IS JUST EAST OF JAMES
BAY ONLY DROPPING TO 978MB. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN TO BEGIN WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND. AGAIN...ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE
ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK DISMAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO
DEVELOP.

MODELS DISAGREE TREMENDOUSLY FOR THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO EFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF TRACKING IT THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AND THE GFS THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER! OBVIOUSLY THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO TRACKS ARE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN BOTH MODELS
AGREE THAT THEY WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE MOISTURE NEEDED DEPARTS
EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL...IT/S JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE
FAVORABLE SETUPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY REACH
NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S THURSDAY AND AROUND 30 FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN TO FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW
20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND WITH CONTINUED
STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
APN...THOUGH CIGS AT MBL MAY CONTINUE TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR. TREND
WILL BE FOR STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET INTO APN AT
SOME POINT LATER SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201741
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1241 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TOUGH CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WITH STRATUS DECK TRYING TO BREAK UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE THE EAST REMAINS
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH BACKS INTO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY DISPLACE STRATUS A
BIT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST SHOULD BE THE NORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND WITH CONTINUED
STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
APN...THOUGH CIGS AT MBL MAY CONTINUE TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR. TREND
WILL BE FOR STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET INTO APN AT
SOME POINT LATER SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 201741
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1241 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TOUGH CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WITH STRATUS DECK TRYING TO BREAK UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE THE EAST REMAINS
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH BACKS INTO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY DISPLACE STRATUS A
BIT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST SHOULD BE THE NORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND WITH CONTINUED
STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
APN...THOUGH CIGS AT MBL MAY CONTINUE TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR. TREND
WILL BE FOR STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET INTO APN AT
SOME POINT LATER SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201705
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1205 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TOUGH CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WITH STRATUS DECK TRYING TO BREAK UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE THE EAST REMAINS
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH BACKS INTO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY DISPLACE STRATUS A
BIT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST SHOULD BE THE NORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND TO DEVELOP AND
SHOVE STRATUS FURTHER UP THROUGH PLN AND THE STRAITS. DO NOT
FORESEE THIS STRATUS GOING ANYWHERE AFTER SETTLING IN. TREND
WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET
INTO APN. THIS WOULD ONLY BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 201705
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1205 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TOUGH CLOUD FORECAST TODAY WITH STRATUS DECK TRYING TO BREAK UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WHILE THE EAST REMAINS
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH BACKS INTO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY DISPLACE STRATUS A
BIT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL...MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST SHOULD BE THE NORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND TO DEVELOP AND
SHOVE STRATUS FURTHER UP THROUGH PLN AND THE STRAITS. DO NOT
FORESEE THIS STRATUS GOING ANYWHERE AFTER SETTLING IN. TREND
WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET
INTO APN. THIS WOULD ONLY BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
614 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND TO DEVELOP AND
SHOVE STRATUS FURTHER UP THROUGH PLN AND THE STRAITS. DO NOT
FORESEE THIS STRATUS GOING ANYWHERE AFTER SETTLING IN. TREND
WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET
INTO APN. THIS WOULD ONLY BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 201114
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
614 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST CONTINUES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TREND FOR A MORE SSW LIGHT WIND TO DEVELOP AND
SHOVE STRATUS FURTHER UP THROUGH PLN AND THE STRAITS. DO NOT
FORESEE THIS STRATUS GOING ANYWHERE AFTER SETTLING IN. TREND
WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE STRATUS TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND GET
INTO APN. THIS WOULD ONLY BE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 200627
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS WORKING UP THE NW LOWER COAST...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST...ALWAYS IS WITH STRATUS. OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST AND WE GET INTO A
MORE CONFIDENT WEAK SSW FLOW...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO SPREAD UP THE NW LOWER COAST LINE...IMPACTING ALL
3 AIRPORTS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STRATUS
SCRAPING APN OFF LAKE HURON...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST...FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

TREND WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS...OF STRATUS GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST...EVENTUALLY INTO APN
AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 200627
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...STRATUS WEST AND SUN EAST...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST 18 HRS IN A VERY
SLOW MOVING. A VERY WAVY UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A COUPLE OF RIDGES...ONE OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WERE
SURROUNDING THESE RIDGES...INCLUDING ONE WORKING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WAVE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NRN MN. OVER NRN MICHIGAN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WITH CALM
WINDS AND STILL JUST DEALING WITH LOW CLOUD/STRATUS.

ATTM...WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND STILL ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH UP
THE LAKE...AND IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 10-15F. IN THE STRATUS...AS WARM AS THE
UPPER 20S.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWER TO SHIFT EAST...UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SSW FLOW. THIS
DEVELOPING SSW OUGHT TO BRING THE STRATUS FURTHER INLAND THROUGH NW
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL MIXING WITH LIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO NOT MIX ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE OUT. THE IDEA WAS
FOR THIS SLIGHTLY WEST COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW...TO BRING
THAT STRATUS INTO NE LOWER TONIGHT. THIS IS STILL THE FORECAST...BUT
THERE ARE HINTS THAT AS UPPER TROUGHING SHARPENS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCOMING INITIAL PACIFIC ENERGY...THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW
COULD BACK MORE OUT OF TRUE SOUTH. THIS DOES PROVIDE A THREAT FOR
THE STRATUS TO MOVE DUE NORTH...AND LEAVE NE LOWER IN MORE OF A
MOSTLY CLEAR SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT WITH A
HUGE RANGE AGAIN...NEAR ZERO IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN NE LOWER...AND
MIDDLE 20S UNDER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A QUICK BURST OF SNOW INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH EXPECTED WET/GREASY
NATURE PERHAPS MAKING FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

SORT OF THE "EASY" PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORK WEEK...AT LEAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
HEADACHES THAT AWAIT THEREAFTER (MORE ON THAT FUN STUFF BELOW). THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN PACIFIC-
DOMINATED ALOFT...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN PLAY THOUGH NONE OF
THEM PARTICULARLY INTERESTING FOR OUR REGION (AT LEAST NOT YET). AT
THE SURFACE...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES ON SUNDAY WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD
IN THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...SETTING UP STRENGTHENING LOW/MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD
OF CRASHING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AS QUITE THE PUNCH OF
PACIFIC JET ENERGY (TO THE TUNE OF 175+ KNOTS!) ROLLS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. COUPLE THAT RETURN FLOW WITH THE FACT THAT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY EXISTS FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...AND THE BASIC
CONCLUSION IS THAT AT SOME POINT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PAY FOR THE
RECENT SUNNY WEATHER.

THAT PAYMENT SHOULD COME ON SUNDAY AS WE SNEAK INCREASING MOISTURE
BENEATH A CONTINUED SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH LOWER STRATUS
LIKELY FILLING IN FOR MANY SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE
WHILE...OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAKISH LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z GUIDANCE SUIT HAS LATCHED ONTO THE NOTION OF
A STRONGER LEAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (VERIFIED
PER WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS OF ENHANCED ENERGY ROLLING THROUGH MONTANA
CURRENTLY)...SUCH THAT OUR SUNDAY NIGHT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS STRONGER AND A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AS
SUCH...AND IN LINE WITH WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN THESE SETUPS...CAN
FORESEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER (PROBABLY NORTH OF M-72) THROUGH LATE EVENING AND BEING
MAXIMIZED TOWARD THE STRAITS/EASTERN U.P. ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z. NOTHING
TOO MAJOR WITH WARM THERMAL PROFILES (LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS) BUT A
QUICK INCH (MAYBE 2?) OF SOME GREASY WET SNOW MAY SLICKEN UP TRAVEL
FOR A TIME AS SURFACE TEMPS HANG JUST BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ALL SORTS OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS...HEAVIER SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY PERIOD. A CAUTIONARY TALE:
DESPITE SOME MEDIA HYPE OF LATE...NO ONE SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORED
OVER THE OTHER JUST YET...AND ALL SCENARIOS ARE ON THE TABLE AS FAR
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES...INCLUDING AT LEAST THE SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

ALL EYES ARE OF COURSE ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR CHRISTMAS WEEK STORM
SYSTEM...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ULTIMATED EVOLUTION OF SAID SYSTEM. THIS UNCERTAINTY CAN BE TIED
DIRECTLY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE STRONG PACIFIC JET AND
SHORTWAVE TRAIN ROARING INTO THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS TIME...WITH
EVEN FORECAST ANALOGS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PICKING OUT ANY
SIMILAR SETUPS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS (SEE CIPS GUIDANCE WITH VERY
LOW CORRELATION SCORES...SOME EVEN NEGATIVE!) ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY
THAT THINGS REMAIN CHANGEABLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ONE SHOULD
COUNT ON CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP IS AS SUCH: LEAD STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WILL GET PLOWED ASHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY AS 180 KNOT PACIFIC JET ROLLS INLAND...LEADING TO RAPID
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN WILL GET
PUNTED INTO THAT DEVELOPING TROUGH COME TUESDAY...HELPING FURTHER
AMPLIFY THE MID-CONUS TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THIS FEATURE
TAKING ON A STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILT. OF COURSE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
TO RESPOND TO SUCH A DRASTIC AND RAPID CHANGE AND IT WILL DO SO BY
FIRST INCITING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BENEATH
A CORE OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. THAT SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT
DRIFTS TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES AND ALL FURTHER UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS
SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN
LINE WITH TREMENDOUS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THAT
REGION. IN FACT...VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE
JANUARY 1978 JET SETUP AND THIS ONE AS MODELED BY THE ECMWF WITH
CONTINUITY THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS GO AROUND IS A
SEVERE LACK OF UPSTREAM COLD AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THIS SYSTEM...
SUCH THAT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SPOTS SEE VARIOUS TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. GIVE THE LACK
OF ANY BLOCKING HIGH...DON`T FORESEE ANY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT
WITH THIS SETUP...BUT MORE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME SPOTS (EVEN IN OUR CWA) COULD SEE
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL BY THE TIME CHRISTMAS DAY ARRIVES.

A LOOK AT THE DETAILS...WHICH AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: PRECIP THREAT ENDS QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS MID
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUDING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE LOOKS TO LIFT ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF BOTH WARM ADVECTION ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT AND ENHANCED
MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE MOST LIKELY DRIVING A BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN LOWER NO
MATTER YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...WITH EVEN THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PEGGING
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENT TO MELT SNOWFLAKES OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. EASTERN UPPER MAY BE MORE OF A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROWAL FEATURE ELONGATES
NEARBY WHILE THE REALLY DYNAMIC SHOW GETS UNDERWAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY AS WE AWAIT
TO SEE THE EVOLUTION OF THE KICKER SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT LITTLE FEATURE WILL BE OF KEY INTEREST AS IT
WILL DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH OUR MID LEVEL CYCLONE CLOSES
OFF...THUS MODULATING THE NORTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. HARD TO IGNORE THE CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GGEM...THOUGH A PEEK AT THEIR VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DART BOARD PEPPERED WITH NUMEROUS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS. ALL TOLD...GUT FEELING IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION IS THAT
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS EVEN A LAKE HURON TRACK WILL WRAP BACK SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR DOWN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH SURFACE TEMPS PERHAPS EVEN SURGING WELL INTO THE
40S (MAYBE EVEN A 50 FAR SOUTHEAST?) SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK
VERIFY.

CHRISTMAS EVE (WEDNESDAY NIGHT)-CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY: RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE NEARBY (DOESN`T REALLY MATTER
EXACTLY WHERE BY THIS POINT) SHOULD WRAP COLD AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY...CHANGING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. ALL THE WHILE...
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AND QUICK BURST OF COLD ADVECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT
NASTY TRAVEL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS MORNING. THAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH WIND CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION. HONESTLY
NOT THAT WORRIED THAT FAR OUT (PLENTY TO DEAL WITH ALREADY)...THOUGH
THE OVERALL TREND DOES APPEAR TO BE FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO MAKE A
RETURN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS WORKING UP THE NW LOWER COAST...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST...ALWAYS IS WITH STRATUS. OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST AND WE GET INTO A
MORE CONFIDENT WEAK SSW FLOW...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO SPREAD UP THE NW LOWER COAST LINE...IMPACTING ALL
3 AIRPORTS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STRATUS
SCRAPING APN OFF LAKE HURON...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST...FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

TREND WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS...OF STRATUS GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST...EVENTUALLY INTO APN
AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 200553
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1253 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN DRIFTING BACK INTO NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER PROGGED...SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. JUST AHEAD OF THIS...FOG WITH OCCASIONAL 1-3SM
VSBYS HAS FORMED. THAT WILL END AS THE CLOUD COVER DRIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. HAVE SHARPLY RAISED MIN TEMPS IN THOSE PARTS
OF NW LOWER MI THAT HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL EVENING...INCLUDING
CVX/TVC/MBL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE STRATUS HAD FINALLY DISSIPATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BUT REMAINED ACROSS THE MANISTEE...LEELANAU
AND TRAVERSE CITY AREAS. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SO DESPITE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOW CLOUDS STUCK UNDER
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AS THE FLOW BACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT DUE
TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT A WHOLE LOT...AT LEAST YET.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS A MILD AND
UNEVENTFUL ONE AS PACIFIC REGIME CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...AND WILL DO
SO RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE VISITS TO OUR
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS (SHOCKING!) AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST...WITH GROWING
INDICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
PERIOD. INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONGER
TERM SECTION TO FOLLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS.

DETAILS: MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK
AS WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GRABS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES AND CORN BELT. CROSS SECTIONAL MOISTURE ANALYSIS/MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...SUGGESTING STRATUS INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES HOLDING OUT LONGEST
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS REMAINS STUBBORN TO
YIELD. CLOUDS WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH
APPROACHING WEAK WAVE. DEEPEST MOISTURE/"STRONGEST" FORCING FOCUS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST...SUGGESTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET
JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...AS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS WITH DEEP SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE NEXT ECMWF RUN WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE...AS IT HAS BEEN ROCK
STEADY THE LAST TWO RUNS AND THIS IS USUALLY THE TIME IT LIKES TO
LOCK INTO SOMETHING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK WILL DELIVER ALL RAIN
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND NOT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES OF QPF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY
FALLS AS ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT IT WILL
BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL
BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
ONE THING THAT COMES TO MIND IS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS
HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. JUST NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 5C AND
850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -6 TO -8C. SO ALL RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE NEARLY...IF NOT AT ALL...FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF. ONE
THING THAT CAME TO MIND WAS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO JUST HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL BORDERLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO KICK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY REACH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST BELOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S...WHILE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...AND
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE COOLING TREND...DROPPING TO NEAR 20.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
FINALLY REACH NORTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO
MORE WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS WORKING UP THE NW LOWER COAST...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST...ALWAYS IS WITH STRATUS. OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST AND WE GET INTO A
MORE CONFIDENT WEAK SSW FLOW...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO SPREAD UP THE NW LOWER COAST LINE...IMPACTING ALL
3 AIRPORTS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STRATUS
SCRAPING APN OFF LAKE HURON...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST...FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

TREND WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS...OF STRATUS GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST...EVENTUALLY INTO APN
AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 200553
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1253 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN DRIFTING BACK INTO NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER PROGGED...SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. JUST AHEAD OF THIS...FOG WITH OCCASIONAL 1-3SM
VSBYS HAS FORMED. THAT WILL END AS THE CLOUD COVER DRIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. HAVE SHARPLY RAISED MIN TEMPS IN THOSE PARTS
OF NW LOWER MI THAT HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL EVENING...INCLUDING
CVX/TVC/MBL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE STRATUS HAD FINALLY DISSIPATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BUT REMAINED ACROSS THE MANISTEE...LEELANAU
AND TRAVERSE CITY AREAS. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SO DESPITE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOW CLOUDS STUCK UNDER
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AS THE FLOW BACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT DUE
TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT A WHOLE LOT...AT LEAST YET.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS A MILD AND
UNEVENTFUL ONE AS PACIFIC REGIME CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...AND WILL DO
SO RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE VISITS TO OUR
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS (SHOCKING!) AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST...WITH GROWING
INDICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
PERIOD. INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONGER
TERM SECTION TO FOLLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS.

DETAILS: MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK
AS WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GRABS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES AND CORN BELT. CROSS SECTIONAL MOISTURE ANALYSIS/MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...SUGGESTING STRATUS INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES HOLDING OUT LONGEST
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS REMAINS STUBBORN TO
YIELD. CLOUDS WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH
APPROACHING WEAK WAVE. DEEPEST MOISTURE/"STRONGEST" FORCING FOCUS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST...SUGGESTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET
JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...AS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS WITH DEEP SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE NEXT ECMWF RUN WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE...AS IT HAS BEEN ROCK
STEADY THE LAST TWO RUNS AND THIS IS USUALLY THE TIME IT LIKES TO
LOCK INTO SOMETHING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK WILL DELIVER ALL RAIN
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND NOT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES OF QPF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY
FALLS AS ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT IT WILL
BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL
BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
ONE THING THAT COMES TO MIND IS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS
HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. JUST NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 5C AND
850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -6 TO -8C. SO ALL RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE NEARLY...IF NOT AT ALL...FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF. ONE
THING THAT CAME TO MIND WAS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO JUST HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL BORDERLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO KICK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY REACH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST BELOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S...WHILE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...AND
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE COOLING TREND...DROPPING TO NEAR 20.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
FINALLY REACH NORTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO
MORE WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...MVFR STRATUS WORKING UP THE NW LOWER COAST...

VERY DIFFICULT CIG FORECAST...ALWAYS IS WITH STRATUS. OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST AND WE GET INTO A
MORE CONFIDENT WEAK SSW FLOW...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO SPREAD UP THE NW LOWER COAST LINE...IMPACTING ALL
3 AIRPORTS. MEANWHILE...THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STRATUS
SCRAPING APN OFF LAKE HURON...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST...FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

TREND WILL BE FOR MORE AND MORE CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS...OF STRATUS GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST...EVENTUALLY INTO APN
AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 200249
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN DRIFTING BACK INTO NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER PROGGED...SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. JUST AHEAD OF THIS...FOG WITH OCCASIONAL 1-3SM
VSBYS HAS FORMED. THAT WILL END AS THE CLOUD COVER DRIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. HAVE SHARPLY RAISED MIN TEMPS IN THOSE PARTS
OF NW LOWER MI THAT HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL EVENING...INCLUDING
CVX/TVC/MBL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE STRATUS HAD FINALLY DISSIPATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BUT REMAINED ACROSS THE MANISTEE...LEELANAU
AND TRAVERSE CITY AREAS. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SO DESPITE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOW CLOUDS STUCK UNDER
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AS THE FLOW BACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT DUE
TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT A WHOLE LOT...AT LEAST YET.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS A MILD AND
UNEVENTFUL ONE AS PACIFIC REGIME CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...AND WILL DO
SO RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE VISITS TO OUR
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS (SHOCKING!) AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST...WITH GROWING
INDICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
PERIOD. INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONGER
TERM SECTION TO FOLLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS.

DETAILS: MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK
AS WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GRABS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES AND CORN BELT. CROSS SECTIONAL MOISTURE ANALYSIS/MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...SUGGESTING STRATUS INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES HOLDING OUT LONGEST
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS REMAINS STUBBORN TO
YIELD. CLOUDS WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH
APPROACHING WEAK WAVE. DEEPEST MOISTURE/"STRONGEST" FORCING FOCUS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST...SUGGESTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET
JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...AS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS WITH DEEP SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE NEXT ECMWF RUN WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE...AS IT HAS BEEN ROCK
STEADY THE LAST TWO RUNS AND THIS IS USUALLY THE TIME IT LIKES TO
LOCK INTO SOMETHING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK WILL DELIVER ALL RAIN
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND NOT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES OF QPF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY
FALLS AS ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT IT WILL
BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL
BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
ONE THING THAT COMES TO MIND IS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS
HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. JUST NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 5C AND
850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -6 TO -8C. SO ALL RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE NEARLY...IF NOT AT ALL...FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF. ONE
THING THAT CAME TO MIND WAS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO JUST HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL BORDERLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO KICK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY REACH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST BELOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S...WHILE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...AND
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE COOLING TREND...DROPPING TO NEAR 20.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
FINALLY REACH NORTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO
MORE WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR CIGS TVC/MBL...ARRIVING AT PLN TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...STRATUS PRESENTLY OVER AND NEAR LAKE MI WILL DRIFT NE.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OVER TVC/MBL...AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. PLN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THRU SATURDAY. APN SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 200249
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRATUS HAS BEEN DRIFTING BACK INTO NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER PROGGED...SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. JUST AHEAD OF THIS...FOG WITH OCCASIONAL 1-3SM
VSBYS HAS FORMED. THAT WILL END AS THE CLOUD COVER DRIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. HAVE SHARPLY RAISED MIN TEMPS IN THOSE PARTS
OF NW LOWER MI THAT HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL EVENING...INCLUDING
CVX/TVC/MBL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE STRATUS HAD FINALLY DISSIPATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER BUT REMAINED ACROSS THE MANISTEE...LEELANAU
AND TRAVERSE CITY AREAS. THE EXTENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND
THE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SO DESPITE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...LOW CLOUDS STUCK UNDER
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AS THE FLOW BACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RADIATE OUT LIKE LAST NIGHT DUE
TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT A WHOLE LOT...AT LEAST YET.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN REMAINS A MILD AND
UNEVENTFUL ONE AS PACIFIC REGIME CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...AND WILL DO
SO RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE VISITS TO OUR
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY BOUTS OF LOW CLOUDS (SHOCKING!) AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS. QUIET WEATHER WILL NOT LAST...WITH GROWING
INDICATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
PERIOD. INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONGER
TERM SECTION TO FOLLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP CONCERNS.

DETAILS: MAIN STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE EXPANDING STRATUS DECK
AS WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GRABS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LAKES AND CORN BELT. CROSS SECTIONAL MOISTURE ANALYSIS/MODEL
DERIVED SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...SUGGESTING STRATUS INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES HOLDING OUT LONGEST
NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS REMAINS STUBBORN TO
YIELD. CLOUDS WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WITH
APPROACHING WEAK WAVE. DEEPEST MOISTURE/"STRONGEST" FORCING FOCUS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST...SUGGESTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET
JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...AS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS WITH DEEP SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE.
THE NEXT ECMWF RUN WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE...AS IT HAS BEEN ROCK
STEADY THE LAST TWO RUNS AND THIS IS USUALLY THE TIME IT LIKES TO
LOCK INTO SOMETHING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK WILL DELIVER ALL RAIN
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND NOT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES OF QPF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ON TOP OF WHAT ALREADY
FALLS AS ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT IT WILL
BEGIN AS A VERY WET AND HEAVY SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WON/T EVEN DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. SO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW FALLING...IT WILL
BE HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET IT TO ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
ONE THING THAT COMES TO MIND IS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY OF THIS
HEAVY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE ON TREES TO HAVE THE WIND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. JUST NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 5C AND
850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -6 TO -8C. SO ALL RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE NEARLY...IF NOT AT ALL...FROM THE SYSTEM ITSELF. ONE
THING THAT CAME TO MIND WAS TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND HAVE THE WIND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO JUST HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL BORDERLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO KICK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY REACH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST BELOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S...WHILE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...AND
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE COOLING TREND...DROPPING TO NEAR 20.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
FINALLY REACH NORTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO
MORE WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR CIGS TVC/MBL...ARRIVING AT PLN TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...STRATUS PRESENTLY OVER AND NEAR LAKE MI WILL DRIFT NE.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OVER TVC/MBL...AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. PLN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THRU SATURDAY. APN SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ





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