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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL PUSH LAKE EEFFECT SHSN
AWAY FROM TVC/MBL BUT TOWARD PLN. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST...-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280501
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL PUSH LAKE EEFFECT SHSN
AWAY FROM TVC/MBL BUT TOWARD PLN. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST...-SN WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN BOTH PENINSULAS THIS
THANKSGIVING EVENING. A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS HAVE EMERGED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONE IS IMPACTING CENTRAL KALKASKA CO...THE
OTHER REDUCED THE VSBY AT KINROSS BELOW 1SM FOR A FULL HOUR. BOTH
BANDS HAVE BEEN/ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING QUICK 1-2 INCH LOCAL
ACCUMS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST W OF LAKE
MI...WE SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT ANY
MOMENT. SOME SUBTLE SIGNS IN SW SECTIONS THAT THIS IS
UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE FRANKFORT AWOS...AND
BANDS TRANSLATING EASTWARD JUST A TOUCH IN LEELANAU CO OVER THE
LAST 30-40MIN. AS THIS OCCURS...LES-IMPACTED AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW FLOW TO WSW FLOW BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR THIS
IDEA...BUT WILL FILL IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. LES INTENSITY WILL
LESSEN AS RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC 1000-850MB FLOW ARRIVES...BUT POPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS THE SNOWBELTS SHIFT.

MIN TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...AS CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
AND IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUNGING. CLOSEST THING TO AN EXCEPTION
TO THE ABOVE IS THE SAULT...DOWN TO 9F...BUT THE BACKING WINDS
WILL THROW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SAULT IN FAIRLY SHORT ORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A CHILLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BELTS. A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MILD
CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING NEAR LAKE MI. IFR DEVELOPING IN -SN
FRIDAY.

NW-FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN CONTINUE IN NORTHERN MI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN -SHSN STREAMING OFF OF
NORTHERN LAKE MI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...HELPING TO DIMINISH -SHSN. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...-SN
WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR
VSBYS TO PREVAIL ONCE THE -SN ARRIVES.

NW WINDS WILL GO LIGHT THIS EVENING...AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272105
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272105
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
405 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...COLD...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/CURRENT CONDITIONS: NEXT SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY . H8
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE MID AND UPPER TEENS...PLENTY
COLD ENOUGH TO DRIVE NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO BOTH
PENINSULAS. DESPITE SUCH IMPRESSIVE OFF THE DECK COLD
TEMPERATURES...INTENSITY OF LAKE SNOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY A
RAPIDLY FALLING INVERSION AND QUICK EXIT OF ANY SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION. LAKE MODIFICATION HELPING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH CURRENT TEENS AND 20S ACROSS OUR AREA SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS FOUND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

DETAILS: PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGINNING THE REBOUND PROCESS...ALL THE WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW STEADILY BACKS LATER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH CRASHING INVERSIONS
AND COMPLETE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY THROTTLE BACK ON INTENSITY LEVELS. DON`T
EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO END...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR HIGHEST POP PLACEMENT. DESPITE SUB H8 LEVEL
INVERSION...LAKE INDUCED CBL/MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PRIME
DGZ...SUPPORTING GOOD "FLUFF" FACTOR AND SOME MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) ACROSS FAVORED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIRECTLY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS. THINKING
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BELTS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIALLY
CLEARING. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THIS ARMS IS...THINKING ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. IF CLEARING IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED...EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO "WARM".

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...SNOW FRIDAY/MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY THEN COLDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY...TURNING COLDER SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WAS OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST.  LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ANOTHER SPLIT POSITIVE TILT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST
COAST STORM NOW LIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION (SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING EXTENDED DOWN
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA).

WESTERN RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SPLIT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE
WEST COAST.  NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITHIN THIS SPLIT THEN EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.  IN THE NEAR TERM...
HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WARM ADVECTION...AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND.
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.  JET STREAK CROSSING THE
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPIN LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY...WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY WHILE
PULLING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL BE DEALING WITH THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): WARM ADVECTION SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.  COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACTS
FOR SUNDAY.

NEAR TERM (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR TO DEVELOP.  COMBINATION OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND TO START THE DAY.  WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS AIDED BY ARRIVAL OF AN ELONGATED
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY (TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED)...WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SO
ANTICIPATE BETTER SNOWFALL "INTENSITY" WILL BE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL PLENTY OF (ALBEIT
RELATIVELY SHALLOW) LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAY FOCUS A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (PERHAPS
STARTING IN WESTERN EMMET COUNTY).  SHIFTING WINDS WILL SPREAD THIS
LAKE RESPONSE OUT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ONE AREA TO GET HIT HARD
UNLESS WINDS CAN LOCK IN.  SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND THE PV ANOMALY...BUT MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  OVERALL SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...1-3 INCHES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING ON HOW THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE EVOLVES.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DEEPER SATURATION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DEEP LAYER WARMING WILL
BEGIN TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE EQUATION.  BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREDOMINATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIQUID (THOUGH
BY THIS TIME MID LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN).  ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH
WARMING ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION BUT WITH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON...WILL
MENTION A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO COVER THIS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY AND PERHAPS
FOGGY AS WELL WITH ADVECTION FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS OVER SNOW COVER.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT PASSES...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND IT OR AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
EVENTUALLY LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CRATER
DOWNWARD.

EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT CHANCE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE REALLY STARTS TO WANE. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WILD IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHAT COULD BE A VERY COLD
MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SOME FORM OF LAKE EFFECT TO RESUME LATE WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY LARGE FAR OUT.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND INCREASE...COULD REQUIRE SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF STRATO-CU
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING AND BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SNOW ALONG WITH IT. SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...LIKELY NOT IMPACTING KAPN UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH EXACT IMPACTS...BUT HAVE TRENDED TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1049 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OVERHEAD...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE EXITING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON.
LAKE HURON INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING GETTING SHOVED OFFSHORE...WITH
TIGHT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOW SAFELY OFF THE COAST VIA
LOCAL RADAR AND OBSERVATION ANALYSIS. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW ALSO GETTING SET TO PASS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALPENA AND
ALCONA COUNTIES. TREND BECOMING ONE OF MUCH MORE FAMILIAR NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS H8 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS. SHARP POST-WAVE DRYING WELL
EVIDENT...AND WILL KEEP SNOW INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROTTLED BACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THAT
SAID...MOISTURE EXTENDED RIGHT THROUGH PRIME DGZ WILL ACCOUNT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO WHERE BEST
BANDING RESIDES. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271144
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-
     030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271144
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
TURNING WINDS INTO THE NW AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY FOR THE DAY
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY BACK SW-W BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEATHER-WISE...LIGHT SNOW AND LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL/APN.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
SNOW BELTS...BUT BECOME LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RETURN TO LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-
     030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270906
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

OVERVIEW: DEEP...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE GULF THIS MORNING. STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS (LEADING EDGE OF OUR NEXT CORE OF ARCTIC AIR) IS
NOW DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH BROAD/WEAK-ISH LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SE STATES. SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. BUT LAKE INDUCED
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAMPED UP OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING QG
FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN OVERALL LIGHT FLOW PATTERN HAS INITIALLY
ALLOWED MORE MESOSCALE DOMINANCE WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING UP ACROSS LAKE HURON TO THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN
COASTLINE. RESULTING STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE IS
DRIVING BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS FROM NE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND THUNDER
BAY INTO LAKE HURON. ALSO A BIT OF A LAKE VORTICE NOTED AROUND
THUNDER BAY/ALPENA SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINING
A VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO THAT AREA. ON MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS/IS SCOOPING UP ONGOING LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS AND PUSHING THEM INTO THE USUAL SNOW BELTS.

TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH/POCKET OF QG-ASCENT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN OVERALL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED LAKE CONVECTION
WILL BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOWS TO THE SNOW BELTS. HEAVIEST STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST FROM ALPENA
SOUTHWARD TO OSCODA AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH/LAKE INDUCED VORTICE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH THAT AREA. ALWAYS TOUGH TO GAUGE SNOWFALL RATES OFF
LAKE HURON. BUT BASED ON SFC OBS AND PAST EXPERIENCES THAT AREA IS
PROBABLY SEEING UP TO INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOWS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH SPREAD OUT DOWN ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THINK ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT SLIVER OF COAST THIS
MORNING ON TOP OF WHATEVER HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING FOR ALPENA AND ALCONA COUNTIES THROUGH IT/S SCHEDULED
18Z END TIME. HOWEVER...TRIMMING PRESQUE ISLE OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS
MOST PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW IS SOUTH OF THAT COUNTY.

FOR THE USUAL SNOW BELTS...AFTER FROPA NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
RAMP UP FOR TIME THIS MORNING AS -17C H8 AIR OR COLDER SLIDES OVER
THE LAKES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT...STRONG DRYING/LOWERING INVERSIONS QUICKLY TAKE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW HOURS OF DICIER WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE
SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT I DONT THINK IT IS ADVISORY WORTHY.

TONIGHT...DRIES OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE STATE BY MORNING. NW FLOW AND LAKE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE USUAL SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. VEERING FLOW OVERNIGHT PUSHES REMAINING LIGHT
SNOWS UP ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE STRAITS.
AGAIN...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN FLATLINE THROUGH TODAY AND EVEN DROP
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA. VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT EVEN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(I-290K) DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE DAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...COULD SEE GENERAL 2 TO
4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY END UP BEING REQUIRED.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS
THE MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOW OR EVEN RAIN SHOWERS (AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PUSH PAST 0 C...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER).

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE MILD DAY. COULD SEE A BAND
OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (BUT PROBABLY NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING). THE ROLLER COASTER
RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER MILD SURGE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY...THE MILDER MIDDLE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...THE ALMOST BALMY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
MONDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THOUGH IF
THE FASTER TIMING OF ANOTHER FRONT OF THE ECMWF PANS OUT WEDNESDAY
WOULD BE COLDER ONCE AGAIN).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS WEAKENING BACK BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE VEERING MORE W/SW BY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP BACK UP AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ024-
     030.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270430
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO FAR
NE LWR MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT INTENSITY HAS YET TO REALLY RAMP UP. THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN WHEN ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING FOR
FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN. WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES
UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270430
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SE FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO FAR
NE LWR MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT INTENSITY HAS YET TO REALLY RAMP UP. THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN WHEN ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASING FOR
FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN. WILL CERTAINLY LEAVE ALL ADVISORIES IN TACT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES
UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SPREADS INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRONG CAA GREATLY INCREASES OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262302
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
602 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADING INLAND TOWARD KAPN THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER SNOWS LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON LIFR REMAINS LOW AS SUCH
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOCALIZED. NONE THE LESS...A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOWFALL AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE SNOW COULD BRIEFLY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT (PRIMARY BETWEEN 07Z
AND 14Z). WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME OF THAT SNOW BLOWING AROUND. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL TAPER
BY MIDDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONSTO A FEW ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...GILLEN
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262302
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
602 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD
AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW HEADING INLAND TOWARD KAPN THIS
EVENING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER SNOWS LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON LIFR REMAINS LOW AS SUCH
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOCALIZED. NONE THE LESS...A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA WITH MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOWFALL AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE SNOW COULD BRIEFLY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT (PRIMARY BETWEEN 07Z
AND 14Z). WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME OF THAT SNOW BLOWING AROUND. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL TAPER
BY MIDDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONSTO A FEW ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GILLEN
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...GILLEN
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOWER...AND A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

MESOSCALE MADNESS ON THE GREAT LAKES AT THE MOMENT...COURTESY OF A
VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS DRAPED FROM
QUEBEC BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT LIGHT FLOW COUPLED WITH
NATURAL THERMALLY-INDUCED OVER-WATER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ENHANCED
LOCAL CONVERGENCE AXES VIA EARLIER LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS POCKETS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. REALLY HARD TO GET A FULL FEELING FOR JUST HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SNOW SHOWERS/MESOSCALE VORTICES ARE AS WE ARE OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTION ON RADAR...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUITE THE HELP IN ATTEMPTING TO FIGURE OUT JUST WHERE THESE THINGS
MAY LIE. ONE BAND OF NOTE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON UP THE
ST. MARYS RIVER INTO SOO...WITH VISBY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 1SM AT
TIMES SUGGESTING SOME ACCUMULATION IS ONGOING. ANOTHER BAND LIES UP
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC AND LUCE
COUNTIES...WHILE A MYRIAD OF FLURRIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER...COURTESY OF A CLOUD DECK SITTING SQUARELY IN THE
DGZ.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. APPROACH OF OUR NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL HELP FLEX THE EXISTING LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH
OVER LAKE HURON BACK SOUTHWEST WITH TIME...SETTING UP A LOCALIZED
AXIS OF QUITE STRONG CONVERGENCE FROM THE ST. MARY`S RIVER SOUTHWARD
AND CLIPPING MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA
COUNTIES. ALL THE WHILE...WARMER AIR OVER THE WATER WILL ESSENTIALLY
ACT IN THE SAME MANNER AS A TROWAL...HELPING LIFT PARCELS UP THE LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACE AND TIGHTENING A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. COUPLE THAT PHYSICAL
PROCESS WITH PLENTIFUL LAKE INSTABILITY AND A DEEPENING DGZ...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATION OVER
PARTS OF SAID AREA ABOVE...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW AS WELL (SEE
BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT). ACTUALLY SAW A SIMILAR SCENARIO A FEW YEARS
AGO UP ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER/WHITEFISH BAY INTERFACE WHICH
RESULTED IN ACCUMS IN EXCESS OF 8". THIS ONE CERTAINLY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATION...AND WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF LONG TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE KICKING OUT
AN ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE...INCOMING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENT UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD "SCOOP UP" ANY MID LAKE BANDING OVER LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN AND EFFECTIVELY PUNT IT INLAND AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING SHOULD FORCE
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE 1-2" CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES...TAPERING INLAND. ALL IN ALL...A TOUGH FORECAST WITH
LATE NIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MORE THAN LIKELY ONCE WE SEE EXACTLY WHERE
THE BETTER BANDS OF SNOW DECIDE TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THANKSGIVING DAY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA.  MORE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER
NORTH AMERICA...WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA
CUTTING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE NEATLY IN HALF.  BIT OF A REX BLOCK
LOOK TO THINGS OVER THE PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-160W.  SPLIT IN THE
NORTH AMERICAN MEAN TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A SECOND SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSING
MISCHIEF ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING PRIME PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL
TIME.  BROAD POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA.  SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVES OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  SLOW MOVING FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A 1036MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES (TEENS AND
20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO).
COMBINATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
FEATURE OVER IOWA IS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
PARTS OF THE UPPER LAKES REGION.

NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING
MORNING...WITH THERMAL TROUGHING ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A FLATTER LOOK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..  THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): VARYING SNOW CHANCES BETWEEN
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON COLD
ADVECTION/LAKE CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM ADVECTION
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY): SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC PORTION
OF THIS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS PART OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE
HURON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL "SPIN" HEAVIER SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOWER.  DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
"SNOW FLASH FLOOD" EVENT SETS UP IS THE TRICK...AS ANYWHERE ALONG
THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM CHEBOYGAN DOWN TO TAWAS CITY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL
ON THE STRETCH BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND OSCODA WITH 2-6 INCHES IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED AND MAY
FOCUS MORE ON THE US-23 CORRIDOR ITSELF.  GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL
HEADACHES FOR FOLKS TRYING TO GET GOING THANKSGIVING MORNING...AN
INITIAL ADVISORY FOR PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES WILL BE
ISSUED...HOLDING OFF ON IOSCO COUNTY FOR NOW AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF
A SECOND PERIOD PROBLEM AND WILL HAVE SOME TIME TO EVALUATE HOW
SNOWFALL IS EVOLVING TOMORROW MORNING.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL CLIP EXTREME SOUTHEAST UPPER/DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS
TAIL END OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE OVER
NORTHWEST LOW WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  SO AFTER ALL THAT...
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH THE REST OF THE DAY.  THIS SHOULD CONSIST
MORE PURE LAKE CONVECTION WITHIN A 320-330 FLOW REGIME...LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 850MB WITH
SYNOPTIC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  SO
DON`T ANTICIPATE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING/BACKING
DURING THE NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
INITIALLY DRY LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN LIKELY ENHANCING AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY (2-5
INCHES).  MID LEVELS FORECAST TO DRY OUT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...SO SNOW MAY TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR A PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
30S.

JPB

EXTENDED RANGE: SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND IF
ANY AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP MIGHT FALL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER BEFORE H8 TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 0C CWA-WIDE BY 06Z SUNDAY...LEADING TO ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ANY "WARM" AIR SUNDAY MORNING (LOWER 40S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES) GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
LEADING TO H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -20C BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLD AIR COMES A WINDOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A MORE TRANSIENT 1000-850
MB FLOW...WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY BRING ANY NOTEWORTHY LAKE SNOWS
TO AN END MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH ITS CURRENT PATH
PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.

GILLEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE ORGANIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THURSDAY.  INCREASED
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITHIN MOST NEARSHORE ZONES
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH INCREASING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ018-024-030.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...JPB/GILLEN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261738
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WHILE THE WEATHER OVERALL IS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA...THERE ARE
SOME NEAT MESOSCALE PHENOMENA ONGOING...ESPECIALLY UP NEAR
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN THE
FORMATION OF A NOTABLE VORTEX THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. NOT MUCH OF
ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF UPTICK IN
"HEAVIER" SNOW FLURRIES...WITH GOV/CAD NOTING 2SM VISBYS WITHIN
SOME BIGGER FLAKES...ENHANCED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION DOWN LOW
WRAPPING INTO THE MESOSCALE LOW. NOT GOING TO GO CRAZY AND ADD ALL
SORTS OF POPS DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SPOTS PICK UP A
VERY FLUFFY HALF INCH...AS THIS IS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER ALL AND
THE IMPACT WILL BE VERY LOW...IF ANY. BUT...DO NOTE THAT A FEW
PERIODS OF ENHANCED FLURRIES CAN AND WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER) THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A NICE QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS FROM QUEBEC
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT STATE OF MICHIGAN ...INTERRUPTED OF COURSE
BY OUR TYPICAL THERMALLY-INDUCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER EACH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AXES WITHIN THIS SETUP...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF WEAKLY BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDING OVER THE
WATER...AND INDEED AT TIMES WE CAN SEE THESE SHOW UP ON RADAR.
HRRR/HI-RES WRF RUNS UTILIZED HEAVILY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT JUST
WHERE THESE MAY END UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD TRY TO KICK THESE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODIC FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS SIMPLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE -12C TO
-14C RANGE. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...HAVE MY DOUBTS WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SUNSHINE SIMPLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND "HEATING" DOWN LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TEAR A FEW HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. SIMPLY PUT...A REALLY
NICE WEATHER DAY (MINUS THE COLD) FOR PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL -
TRULY SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261738
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WHILE THE WEATHER OVERALL IS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA...THERE ARE
SOME NEAT MESOSCALE PHENOMENA ONGOING...ESPECIALLY UP NEAR
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN THE
FORMATION OF A NOTABLE VORTEX THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. NOT MUCH OF
ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF UPTICK IN
"HEAVIER" SNOW FLURRIES...WITH GOV/CAD NOTING 2SM VISBYS WITHIN
SOME BIGGER FLAKES...ENHANCED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION DOWN LOW
WRAPPING INTO THE MESOSCALE LOW. NOT GOING TO GO CRAZY AND ADD ALL
SORTS OF POPS DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SPOTS PICK UP A
VERY FLUFFY HALF INCH...AS THIS IS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER ALL AND
THE IMPACT WILL BE VERY LOW...IF ANY. BUT...DO NOTE THAT A FEW
PERIODS OF ENHANCED FLURRIES CAN AND WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER) THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A NICE QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS FROM QUEBEC
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT STATE OF MICHIGAN ...INTERRUPTED OF COURSE
BY OUR TYPICAL THERMALLY-INDUCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER EACH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AXES WITHIN THIS SETUP...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF WEAKLY BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDING OVER THE
WATER...AND INDEED AT TIMES WE CAN SEE THESE SHOW UP ON RADAR.
HRRR/HI-RES WRF RUNS UTILIZED HEAVILY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT JUST
WHERE THESE MAY END UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD TRY TO KICK THESE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODIC FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS SIMPLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE -12C TO
-14C RANGE. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...HAVE MY DOUBTS WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SUNSHINE SIMPLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND "HEATING" DOWN LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TEAR A FEW HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. SIMPLY PUT...A REALLY
NICE WEATHER DAY (MINUS THE COLD) FOR PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL -
TRULY SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A NICE QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS FROM QUEBEC
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT STATE OF MICHIGAN ...INTERRUPTED OF COURSE
BY OUR TYPICAL THERMALLY-INDUCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER EACH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AXES WITHIN THIS SETUP...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF WEAKLY BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDING OVER THE
WATER...AND INDEED AT TIMES WE CAN SEE THESE SHOW UP ON RADAR.
HRRR/HI-RES WRF RUNS UTILIZED HEAVILY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT JUST
WHERE THESE MAY END UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD TRY TO KICK THESE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODIC FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS SIMPLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE -12C TO
-14C RANGE. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...HAVE MY DOUBTS WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SUNSHINE SIMPLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND "HEATING" DOWN LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TEAR A FEW HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. SIMPLY PUT...A REALLY
NICE WEATHER DAY (MINUS THE COLD) FOR PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL -
TRULY SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A NICE QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS FROM QUEBEC
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT STATE OF MICHIGAN ...INTERRUPTED OF COURSE
BY OUR TYPICAL THERMALLY-INDUCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER EACH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AXES WITHIN THIS SETUP...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF WEAKLY BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDING OVER THE
WATER...AND INDEED AT TIMES WE CAN SEE THESE SHOW UP ON RADAR.
HRRR/HI-RES WRF RUNS UTILIZED HEAVILY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT JUST
WHERE THESE MAY END UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD TRY TO KICK THESE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODIC FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS SIMPLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE -12C TO
-14C RANGE. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...HAVE MY DOUBTS WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SUNSHINE SIMPLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND "HEATING" DOWN LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TEAR A FEW HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. SIMPLY PUT...A REALLY
NICE WEATHER DAY (MINUS THE COLD) FOR PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL -
TRULY SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261547
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A NICE QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS FROM QUEBEC
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT STATE OF MICHIGAN ...INTERRUPTED OF COURSE
BY OUR TYPICAL THERMALLY-INDUCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER EACH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AXES WITHIN THIS SETUP...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF WEAKLY BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDING OVER THE
WATER...AND INDEED AT TIMES WE CAN SEE THESE SHOW UP ON RADAR.
HRRR/HI-RES WRF RUNS UTILIZED HEAVILY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT JUST
WHERE THESE MAY END UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD TRY TO KICK THESE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODIC FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS SIMPLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE -12C TO
-14C RANGE. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...HAVE MY DOUBTS WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SUNSHINE SIMPLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND "HEATING" DOWN LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TEAR A FEW HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. SIMPLY PUT...A REALLY
NICE WEATHER DAY (MINUS THE COLD) FOR PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL -
TRULY SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR TO HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ILL DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CONDITIONS
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME A BIT MORE GUSTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261547
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A NICE QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS FROM QUEBEC
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT STATE OF MICHIGAN ...INTERRUPTED OF COURSE
BY OUR TYPICAL THERMALLY-INDUCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER EACH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AXES WITHIN THIS SETUP...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF WEAKLY BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDING OVER THE
WATER...AND INDEED AT TIMES WE CAN SEE THESE SHOW UP ON RADAR.
HRRR/HI-RES WRF RUNS UTILIZED HEAVILY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT JUST
WHERE THESE MAY END UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD TRY TO KICK THESE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODIC FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS SIMPLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE -12C TO
-14C RANGE. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...HAVE MY DOUBTS WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SUNSHINE SIMPLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND "HEATING" DOWN LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TEAR A FEW HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. SIMPLY PUT...A REALLY
NICE WEATHER DAY (MINUS THE COLD) FOR PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL -
TRULY SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR TO HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ILL DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CONDITIONS
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME A BIT MORE GUSTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261152
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR TO HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ILL DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CONDITIONS
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME A BIT MORE GUSTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261152
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
652 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR TO HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ILL DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CONDITIONS
DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME A BIT MORE GUSTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260937
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
437 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NW AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL)
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S/SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260937
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
437 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NW AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL)
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S/SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260448
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1148 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALWAYS A FUN CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR AND INDEED TONIGHT
IS NO EXCEPTION...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING THE PLACEMENT
OF CLOUDS/LINGERING LAKE SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS JUST HOW COLD TEMPS
MAY GET IN SOME AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A STRONG SUB-
980MB LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BUT WITH PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING STRUNG BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER WAVE IS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO...WITH EARLIER DEEPER MOISTURE/DEFORMATION FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE DELIVERING QUITE THE SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT (SAVE FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES). VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME...WHICH HAS
INTERACTED WITH DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL LAKE
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A SMATTERING OF HEAVIER LAKE SNOW BANDS...
PARTICULARLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST LOWER.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. SAID CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WANE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES...HELPING GRADUALLY BACK OUR INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING...THOUGH WITH SPEED SHEAR OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. THAT SETUP MORE THAN NOT OFTEN LEADS TO SOME SNEAKY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT MAKE THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. IN THIS
CASE...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW LAKE SNOWS AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WITH
A TREND TOWARD CLEARING INLAND AREAS AS WE LOSE THE FLOW AND LAND
BREEZES ATTEMPT TO SET UP.

ALL THE WHILE...PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO LAY OUT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...POTENTIALLY
INTERACTING WITH SAID LAND BREEZES TO HELP SPIN UP A MESOSCALE
VORTEX OR TWO OVER THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH BACKED
FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS TO FORCE STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTO PARTS OF
EMMET COUNTY...AND PERHAPS DOWN THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...DO SUSPECT SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE AND IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. FOR MOST
OTHER AREAS...SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME QUITE CHILLY LOW TEMPS
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AND FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE (AWAY FROM COASTAL LOCALES)...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME SPOTS COULD TANK WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DEFINITELY A VERY
NEAR TERM ISSUE BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS
TO PUSH ZERO...PROVIDED OF COURSE WE CAN MANAGE SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEASONALLY ACTIVE NOVEMBER PATTERN
WITH SEVERAL SNOW CHANCES /GENERALLY LIGHT/ BUT SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL ISSUES.

LOW LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES...PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
/850MB TEMPS -11C/ AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL POINT TOWARD MESO-
VORTICES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.  VARIOUS PIECES OF
GUIDANCE POINT TO THIS AS WELL.  VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO
PIN DOWN THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES BUT WILL GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY...AS WELL AS ALONG LAKE HURON.  DRY OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING...FORECAST BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AND
CHALLENGING AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND HELPS TO ENHANCED EXISTING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING.
INCREASE IN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENHANCE THE SNOW FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH
THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO THE STRAITS.  TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
THINGS...GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF OF LAKE
HURON WITH LIGHT ONSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW...SOME AGGREGATE SURFACE
TROUGHING UP ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY A MESO-VORTEX SLIDING
ONSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FRONT...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF
1-2" /H7 MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1 G/KG/ WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ENHANCED AREAS. AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...A QUICK
TRANSITION TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT OCCURS. NOT EXPECTING BIG
ACCUMULATIONS BUT ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED SNOW BELTS. MAY ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS
/15-20 MPH/ BEHIND THE FRONT CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALL IN ALL...A FAIRLY WINTRY THANKSGIVING
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING WEATHER CONTINUES
AS LONGWAVE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/UPGLIDE SNOWS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.   PLENTY COLD ENOUGH H8 TEMPS FOR CONTINUED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

EXTENDED PERIODS...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

FRIDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE
LAST OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THROUGH THE STRAITS/EASTERN
UPPER BY 12Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SNOW PACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WAFFLE OR TWO IN TERMS OF THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARD A RELATIVELY MILDER
SOLUTION WITH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SURPRISE SURPRISE...A RETURN TO RATHER COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY
MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING. WITH THAT
COLD AIR COMES ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NW AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL)
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S/SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY UNDER 10 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE WATERS...WITH THAT LIGHTER FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH A BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
NO GALES ARE FORESEEN. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IS
LIKELY LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LOW END CHANCE
FOR A FEW GALE GUSTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...KEYSOR/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
601 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALWAYS A FUN CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR AND INDEED TONIGHT
IS NO EXCEPTION...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING THE PLACEMENT
OF CLOUDS/LINGERING LAKE SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS JUST HOW COLD TEMPS
MAY GET IN SOME AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A STRONG SUB-
980MB LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BUT WITH PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING STRUNG BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER WAVE IS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO...WITH EARLIER DEEPER MOISTURE/DEFORMATION FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE DELIVERING QUITE THE SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT (SAVE FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES). VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME...WHICH HAS
INTERACTED WITH DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL LAKE
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A SMATTERING OF HEAVIER LAKE SNOW BANDS...
PARTICULARLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST LOWER.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. SAID CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WANE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES...HELPING GRADUALLY BACK OUR INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING...THOUGH WITH SPEED SHEAR OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. THAT SETUP MORE THAN NOT OFTEN LEADS TO SOME SNEAKY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT MAKE THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. IN THIS
CASE...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW LAKE SNOWS AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WITH
A TREND TOWARD CLEARING INLAND AREAS AS WE LOSE THE FLOW AND LAND
BREEZES ATTEMPT TO SET UP.

ALL THE WHILE...PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO LAY OUT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...POTENTIALLY
INTERACTING WITH SAID LAND BREEZES TO HELP SPIN UP A MESOSCALE
VORTEX OR TWO OVER THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH BACKED
FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS TO FORCE STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTO PARTS OF
EMMET COUNTY...AND PERHAPS DOWN THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...DO SUSPECT SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE AND IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. FOR MOST
OTHER AREAS...SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME QUITE CHILLY LOW TEMPS
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AND FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE (AWAY FROM COASTAL LOCALES)...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME SPOTS COULD TANK WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DEFINITELY A VERY
NEAR TERM ISSUE BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS
TO PUSH ZERO...PROVIDED OF COURSE WE CAN MANAGE SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEASONALLY ACTIVE NOVEMBER PATTERN
WITH SEVERAL SNOW CHANCES /GENERALLY LIGHT/ BUT SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL ISSUES.

LOW LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES...PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
/850MB TEMPS -11C/ AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL POINT TOWARD MESO-
VORTICES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.  VARIOUS PIECES OF
GUIDANCE POINT TO THIS AS WELL.  VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO
PIN DOWN THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES BUT WILL GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY...AS WELL AS ALONG LAKE HURON.  DRY OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING...FORECAST BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AND
CHALLENGING AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND HELPS TO ENHANCED EXISTING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING.
INCREASE IN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENHANCE THE SNOW FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH
THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO THE STRAITS.  TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
THINGS...GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF OF LAKE
HURON WITH LIGHT ONSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW...SOME AGGREGATE SURFACE
TROUGHING UP ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY A MESO-VORTEX SLIDING
ONSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FRONT...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF
1-2" /H7 MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1 G/KG/ WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ENHANCED AREAS. AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...A QUICK
TRANSITION TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT OCCURS. NOT EXPECTING BIG
ACCUMULATIONS BUT ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED SNOW BELTS. MAY ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS
/15-20 MPH/ BEHIND THE FRONT CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALL IN ALL...A FAIRLY WINTRY THANKSGIVING
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING WEATHER CONTINUES
AS LONGWAVE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/UPGLIDE SNOWS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.   PLENTY COLD ENOUGH H8 TEMPS FOR CONTINUED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

EXTENDED PERIODS...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

FRIDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE
LAST OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THROUGH THE STRAITS/EASTERN
UPPER BY 12Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SNOW PACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WAFFLE OR TWO IN TERMS OF THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARD A RELATIVELY MILDER
SOLUTION WITH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SURPRISE SURPRISE...A RETURN TO RATHER COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY
MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING. WITH THAT
COLD AIR COMES ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NW AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL)
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S/SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THANKSGIVING. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY UNDER
10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE WATERS...WITH THAT LIGHTER FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH A BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
NO GALES ARE FORESEEN. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IS
LIKELY LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LOW END CHANCE
FOR A FEW GALE GUSTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...KEYSOR/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 252301
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
601 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALWAYS A FUN CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR AND INDEED TONIGHT
IS NO EXCEPTION...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING THE PLACEMENT
OF CLOUDS/LINGERING LAKE SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS JUST HOW COLD TEMPS
MAY GET IN SOME AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A STRONG SUB-
980MB LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BUT WITH PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING STRUNG BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER WAVE IS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO...WITH EARLIER DEEPER MOISTURE/DEFORMATION FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE DELIVERING QUITE THE SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT (SAVE FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES). VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME...WHICH HAS
INTERACTED WITH DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL LAKE
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A SMATTERING OF HEAVIER LAKE SNOW BANDS...
PARTICULARLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST LOWER.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. SAID CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WANE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES...HELPING GRADUALLY BACK OUR INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING...THOUGH WITH SPEED SHEAR OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. THAT SETUP MORE THAN NOT OFTEN LEADS TO SOME SNEAKY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT MAKE THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. IN THIS
CASE...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW LAKE SNOWS AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WITH
A TREND TOWARD CLEARING INLAND AREAS AS WE LOSE THE FLOW AND LAND
BREEZES ATTEMPT TO SET UP.

ALL THE WHILE...PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO LAY OUT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...POTENTIALLY
INTERACTING WITH SAID LAND BREEZES TO HELP SPIN UP A MESOSCALE
VORTEX OR TWO OVER THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH BACKED
FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS TO FORCE STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTO PARTS OF
EMMET COUNTY...AND PERHAPS DOWN THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...DO SUSPECT SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE AND IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. FOR MOST
OTHER AREAS...SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME QUITE CHILLY LOW TEMPS
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AND FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE (AWAY FROM COASTAL LOCALES)...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME SPOTS COULD TANK WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DEFINITELY A VERY
NEAR TERM ISSUE BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS
TO PUSH ZERO...PROVIDED OF COURSE WE CAN MANAGE SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEASONALLY ACTIVE NOVEMBER PATTERN
WITH SEVERAL SNOW CHANCES /GENERALLY LIGHT/ BUT SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL ISSUES.

LOW LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES...PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
/850MB TEMPS -11C/ AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL POINT TOWARD MESO-
VORTICES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.  VARIOUS PIECES OF
GUIDANCE POINT TO THIS AS WELL.  VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO
PIN DOWN THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES BUT WILL GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY...AS WELL AS ALONG LAKE HURON.  DRY OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING...FORECAST BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AND
CHALLENGING AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND HELPS TO ENHANCED EXISTING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING.
INCREASE IN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENHANCE THE SNOW FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH
THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO THE STRAITS.  TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
THINGS...GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF OF LAKE
HURON WITH LIGHT ONSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW...SOME AGGREGATE SURFACE
TROUGHING UP ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY A MESO-VORTEX SLIDING
ONSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FRONT...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF
1-2" /H7 MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1 G/KG/ WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ENHANCED AREAS. AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...A QUICK
TRANSITION TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT OCCURS. NOT EXPECTING BIG
ACCUMULATIONS BUT ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED SNOW BELTS. MAY ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS
/15-20 MPH/ BEHIND THE FRONT CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALL IN ALL...A FAIRLY WINTRY THANKSGIVING
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING WEATHER CONTINUES
AS LONGWAVE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/UPGLIDE SNOWS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.   PLENTY COLD ENOUGH H8 TEMPS FOR CONTINUED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

EXTENDED PERIODS...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

FRIDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE
LAST OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THROUGH THE STRAITS/EASTERN
UPPER BY 12Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SNOW PACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WAFFLE OR TWO IN TERMS OF THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARD A RELATIVELY MILDER
SOLUTION WITH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SURPRISE SURPRISE...A RETURN TO RATHER COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY
MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING. WITH THAT
COLD AIR COMES ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL OVER PORTIONS OF NW AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL)
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S/SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THANKSGIVING. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY UNDER
10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE WATERS...WITH THAT LIGHTER FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH A BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
NO GALES ARE FORESEEN. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IS
LIKELY LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LOW END CHANCE
FOR A FEW GALE GUSTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...KEYSOR/GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALWAYS A FUN CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR AND INDEED TONIGHT
IS NO EXCEPTION...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING THE PLACEMENT
OF CLOUDS/LINGERING LAKE SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS JUST HOW COLD TEMPS
MAY GET IN SOME AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A STRONG SUB-
980MB LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BUT WITH PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING STRUNG BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER WAVE IS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO...WITH EARLIER DEEPER MOISTURE/DEFORMATION FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE DELIVERING QUITE THE SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT (SAVE FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES). VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME...WHICH HAS
INTERACTED WITH DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL LAKE
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A SMATTERING OF HEAVIER LAKE SNOW BANDS...
PARTICULARLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST LOWER.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. SAID CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WANE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES...HELPING GRADUALLY BACK OUR INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING...THOUGH WITH SPEED SHEAR OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. THAT SETUP MORE THAN NOT OFTEN LEADS TO SOME SNEAKY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT MAKE THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. IN THIS
CASE...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW LAKE SNOWS AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WITH
A TREND TOWARD CLEARING INLAND AREAS AS WE LOSE THE FLOW AND LAND
BREEZES ATTEMPT TO SET UP.

ALL THE WHILE...PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO LAY OUT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...POTENTIALLY
INTERACTING WITH SAID LAND BREEZES TO HELP SPIN UP A MESOSCALE
VORTEX OR TWO OVER THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH BACKED
FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS TO FORCE STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTO PARTS OF
EMMET COUNTY...AND PERHAPS DOWN THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...DO SUSPECT SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE AND IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. FOR MOST
OTHER AREAS...SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME QUITE CHILLY LOW TEMPS
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AND FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE (AWAY FROM COASTAL LOCALES)...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME SPOTS COULD TANK WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DEFINITELY A VERY
NEAR TERM ISSUE BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS
TO PUSH ZERO...PROVIDED OF COURSE WE CAN MANAGE SOME CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEASONALLY ACTIVE NOVEMBER PATTERN
WITH SEVERAL SNOW CHANCES /GENERALLY LIGHT/ BUT SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL ISSUES.

LOW LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES...PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
/850MB TEMPS -11C/ AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL POINT TOWARD MESO-
VORTICES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.  VARIOUS PIECES OF
GUIDANCE POINT TO THIS AS WELL.  VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO
PIN DOWN THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES BUT WILL GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY...AS WELL AS ALONG LAKE HURON.  DRY OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING...FORECAST BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AND
CHALLENGING AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND HELPS TO ENHANCED EXISTING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING.
INCREASE IN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENHANCE THE SNOW FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH
THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO THE STRAITS.  TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
THINGS...GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF OF LAKE
HURON WITH LIGHT ONSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW...SOME AGGREGATE SURFACE
TROUGHING UP ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY A MESO-VORTEX SLIDING
ONSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FRONT...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF
1-2" /H7 MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1 G/KG/ WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ENHANCED AREAS. AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...A QUICK
TRANSITION TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT OCCURS. NOT EXPECTING BIG
ACCUMULATIONS BUT ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED SNOW BELTS. MAY ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS
/15-20 MPH/ BEHIND THE FRONT CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALL IN ALL...A FAIRLY WINTRY THANKSGIVING
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING WEATHER CONTINUES
AS LONGWAVE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/UPGLIDE SNOWS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.   PLENTY COLD ENOUGH H8 TEMPS FOR CONTINUED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

EXTENDED PERIODS...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

FRIDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE
LAST OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THROUGH THE STRAITS/EASTERN
UPPER BY 12Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SNOW PACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WAFFLE OR TWO IN TERMS OF THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARD A RELATIVELY MILDER
SOLUTION WITH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SURPRISE SURPRISE...A RETURN TO RATHER COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY
MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING. WITH THAT
COLD AIR COMES ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO VFR BUT WITH INTERLUDES OF IFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRIMARILY AROUND PLN WHERE SNOWS WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE...AND IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY WELL CLEAR
OUT FOR A TIME. BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST DO GIVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TOWARD
PLN AND PERHAPS MBL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THAT
IS VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE WATERS...WITH THAT LIGHTER FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH A BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
NO GALES ARE FORESEEN. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IS
LIKELY LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LOW END CHANCE
FOR A FEW GALE GUSTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...KEYSOR/GILLEN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ALWAYS A FUN CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR AND INDEED TONIGHT
IS NO EXCEPTION...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING THE PLACEMENT
OF CLOUDS/LINGERING LAKE SNOW CHANCES AS WELL AS JUST HOW COLD TEMPS
MAY GET IN SOME AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A STRONG SUB-
980MB LOW RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND BUT WITH PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING STRUNG BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
ALOFT...AN UPPER WAVE IS NOTED LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO...WITH EARLIER DEEPER MOISTURE/DEFORMATION FORCING FROM THIS
FEATURE DELIVERING QUITE THE SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT (SAVE FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES). VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACE STRONG LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME...WHICH HAS
INTERACTED WITH DEPARTING DEEP MOISTURE AND PLENTIFUL LAKE
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A SMATTERING OF HEAVIER LAKE SNOW BANDS...
PARTICULARLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST LOWER.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. SAID CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WANE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKS THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES...HELPING GRADUALLY BACK OUR INITIAL NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING...THOUGH WITH SPEED SHEAR OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. THAT SETUP MORE THAN NOT OFTEN LEADS TO SOME SNEAKY
MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT MAKE THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. IN THIS
CASE...SUSPECT THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW LAKE SNOWS AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WITH
A TREND TOWARD CLEARING INLAND AREAS AS WE LOSE THE FLOW AND LAND
BREEZES ATTEMPT TO SET UP.

ALL THE WHILE...PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO LAY OUT
THROUGH THE STRAITS AND DOWN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...POTENTIALLY
INTERACTING WITH SAID LAND BREEZES TO HELP SPIN UP A MESOSCALE
VORTEX OR TWO OVER THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING UP TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT
COUNTIES...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH BACKED
FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS TO FORCE STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTO PARTS OF
EMMET COUNTY...AND PERHAPS DOWN THE SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...DO SUSPECT SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE AND IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. FOR MOST
OTHER AREAS...SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME QUITE CHILLY LOW TEMPS
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AND FRESH SNOW COVER. HAVE UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE (AWAY FROM COASTAL LOCALES)...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME SPOTS COULD TANK WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DEFINITELY A VERY
NEAR TERM ISSUE BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR A FEW UNLUCKY SPOTS
TO PUSH ZERO...PROVIDED OF COURSE WE CAN MANAGE SOME CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SEASONALLY ACTIVE NOVEMBER PATTERN
WITH SEVERAL SNOW CHANCES /GENERALLY LIGHT/ BUT SOME POTENTIAL
TRAVEL ISSUES.

LOW LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES...PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY
/850MB TEMPS -11C/ AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL POINT TOWARD MESO-
VORTICES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON.  VARIOUS PIECES OF
GUIDANCE POINT TO THIS AS WELL.  VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO
PIN DOWN THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES BUT WILL GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY...AS WELL AS ALONG LAKE HURON.  DRY OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING...FORECAST BECOMES MORE MUDDLED AND
CHALLENGING AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND HELPS TO ENHANCED EXISTING LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING.
INCREASE IN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENHANCE THE SNOW FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH
THE TIP OF THE MITT INTO THE STRAITS.  TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
THINGS...GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL OFF OF LAKE
HURON WITH LIGHT ONSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW...SOME AGGREGATE SURFACE
TROUGHING UP ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY A MESO-VORTEX SLIDING
ONSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH FRONT...PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF
1-2" /H7 MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1 G/KG/ WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ENHANCED AREAS. AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...A QUICK
TRANSITION TO NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT OCCURS. NOT EXPECTING BIG
ACCUMULATIONS BUT ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED SNOW BELTS. MAY ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS
/15-20 MPH/ BEHIND THE FRONT CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ALL IN ALL...A FAIRLY WINTRY THANKSGIVING
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING WEATHER CONTINUES
AS LONGWAVE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/UPGLIDE SNOWS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.   PLENTY COLD ENOUGH H8 TEMPS FOR CONTINUED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

EXTENDED PERIODS...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

FRIDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE
LAST OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PUSHING THROUGH THE STRAITS/EASTERN
UPPER BY 12Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
WARMER AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SNOW PACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER WAFFLE OR TWO IN TERMS OF THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR...BUT WILL HEDGE TOWARD A RELATIVELY MILDER
SOLUTION WITH HIGHS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SURPRISE SURPRISE...A RETURN TO RATHER COLD
AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY
MIXED PRECIP TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING. WITH THAT
COLD AIR COMES ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO VFR BUT WITH INTERLUDES OF IFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRIMARILY AROUND PLN WHERE SNOWS WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE...AND IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY WELL CLEAR
OUT FOR A TIME. BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST DO GIVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TOWARD
PLN AND PERHAPS MBL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THAT
IS VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES OVER THE WATERS...WITH THAT LIGHTER FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WITH A BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
NO GALES ARE FORESEEN. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IS
LIKELY LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A LOW END CHANCE
FOR A FEW GALE GUSTS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJG
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...KEYSOR/GILLEN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST AND THAT`S
NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF YEAR. SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS JUST STARTING TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA...PROVIDING MANY AREAS
WITH A SOLID 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT (LOCALLY HIGHER OF
COURSE)...SAVE FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE A WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. PLENTY OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT VIA CONTINUED WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR TO HELP BAND THINGS UP...WITH A NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
TRANSITIONING RAPIDLY TO MORE OF A W/NW OR NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN
LOWER AS QUITE THE TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED OVER THE CWA.
ONE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BAND AT THE MOMENT SITS FROM NORTHERN
LEELANAU COUNTY DOWN INTO CRAWFORD COUNTY...AND THAT SHOULD PIVOT
BACK NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
CYCLONIC CURVATURE WEAKENS...BUT STILL NOT BEFORE IT LIKELY DROPS
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-75 AND BETWEEN
M-72 AND M-32. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE WE ALREADY PAINT THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION...AND THAT LOOKS FINE...WITH PRIMARILY AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER SPOTS.

LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET TO CAN THE GOING ADVISORY EARLY FOR
MANY AREAS (OUTSIDE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AREAS)...BUT WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK HERE IN A BIT (BEFORE NOON) BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL
DECISION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WELCOME BACK WINTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING NE THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE EXTENDED BACK THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...YET SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST WEST OF US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...DEEP MOISTURE
AND DEFORMATION RIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT DEEP H8-H5 FORCING/-DIVQ HOWEVER IS HEADING NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS
WISCONSIN ARE SLOW TO LIFT NE...BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS WANING. WE
ARE IN THE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL...AS H8 TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY GET THE LAKES GOING. THIS IS SEEN
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WITH BANDED STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE
SYSTEM SNOW. ROUGHLY 1-3" OF SNOW HAD FALLEN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT AND ALMOST ALL
SYNOPTIC. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE REALLY KICKED IN. 1-2"/HR
SNOWS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE NW/WNW FLOW REGIMES
OF NRN LOWER (ANTRIM TO OTSEGO COUNTY). A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LEAVES MUCH LESS
SNOW...ALMOST ALL BY SYNOPTICS (OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MACK). THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS ALL BUT LEFT THE COUNTIES NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS ALPENA COUNTY.
WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH WET ROADS COULD ICE UP
SOME BY DAYBREAK FOR A SLIPPERY COMMUTE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW KEEPS ON TRUCKING NE WITH THE SFC FRONT SAGGING SE
THROUGH THE CWA. WE LOSE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE DEFORMATION/DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ALL OF THESE
MECHANISMS STILL IN PLAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT...AND
THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS NRN LOWER
WITH SOME BACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEEP DGZ MAY NOT PROVE
TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE FLUFF FACTOR/POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AS THE MAX OMEGA ISN`T CO-LOCATED THERE. WINDS BACK
EVERYWHERE BY LATE DAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 4KFT...AND
THE SNOW REALLY WINDS DOWN...AND GETS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NW
LOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF M-32....AND ACROSS MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN
EASTERN UPPER. CAN SEE AROUND 3 INCHES THIS MORNING IN THE IN AND
AROUND AN AXIS THAT RUNS THROUGH CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WITH
MOST ALL FLOW REGIMES SEEING A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO
FROM ADDED FETCH AND CONVERGENT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THERE.

TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...OUT OF THE SSW AND TO AROUND
10KTS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...WITH ONLY LAKE EFFECTS IN PLAY.
WINDS STILL HAVE MORE OF A WSW FLAVOR TO THEM...PASTING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO FAR NW LOWER...CENTERED AROUND EMMET/CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. THOSE LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SNEAK OUT OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AND A MESOVORTEX IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER ALL IN THE ZONE FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME MINOR WARM ADVECTION AT H8 TO
WHERE WE MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. NOBODY OVER
AN INCH IS THE EXPECTATION.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO AS MILD AS THE LOW TO MID 20S IN LAKE EFFECT/CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE VORTICE FORMATION ACROSS
ANY OF THE THREE BIG LAKES (WHICH MAY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
(WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY NORTH) APPEARS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO VFR BUT WITH INTERLUDES OF IFR IN
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRIMARILY AROUND PLN WHERE SNOWS WILL BE MOST
PERSISTENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND LAKE SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
DIMISHING IN COVERAGE...AND IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY WELL CLEAR OUT
FOR A TIME. BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST DO GIVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNEAKY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TOWARD PLN AND
PERHAPS MBL THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS VERY
LOW AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE WARNING. STILL GONNA GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THROUGH TODAY...AS WELL AS PERIODICALLY ACROSS MOST ALL OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY UP EVERYWHERE TODAY.
WINDS DO WEAKEN HEADING THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.

THEN...A LIGHT...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WIND...IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORES
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>023-025>029.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251540
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1040 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST AND THAT`S
NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF YEAR. SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS JUST STARTING TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA...PROVIDING MANY AREAS
WITH A SOLID 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT (LOCALLY HIGHER OF
COURSE)...SAVE FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE A WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. PLENTY OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT VIA CONTINUED WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR TO HELP BAND THINGS UP...WITH A NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
TRANSITIONING RAPIDLY TO MORE OF A W/NW OR NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN
LOWER AS QUITE THE TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED OVER THE CWA.
ONE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BAND AT THE MOMENT SITS FROM NORTHERN
LEELANAU COUNTY DOWN INTO CRAWFORD COUNTY...AND THAT SHOULD PIVOT
BACK NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
CYCLONIC CURVATURE WEAKENS...BUT STILL NOT BEFORE IT LIKELY DROPS
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-75 AND BETWEEN
M-72 AND M-32. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE WE ALREADY PAINT THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION...AND THAT LOOKS FINE...WITH PRIMARILY AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER SPOTS.

LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET TO CAN THE GOING ADVISORY EARLY FOR
MANY AREAS (OUTSIDE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AREAS)...BUT WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK HERE IN A BIT (BEFORE NOON) BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL
DECISION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WELCOME BACK WINTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING NE THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE EXTENDED BACK THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...YET SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST WEST OF US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...DEEP MOISTURE
AND DEFORMATION RIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT DEEP H8-H5 FORCING/-DIVQ HOWEVER IS HEADING NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS
WISCONSIN ARE SLOW TO LIFT NE...BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS WANING. WE
ARE IN THE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL...AS H8 TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY GET THE LAKES GOING. THIS IS SEEN
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WITH BANDED STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE
SYSTEM SNOW. ROUGHLY 1-3" OF SNOW HAD FALLEN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT AND ALMOST ALL
SYNOPTIC. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE REALLY KICKED IN. 1-2"/HR
SNOWS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE NW/WNW FLOW REGIMES
OF NRN LOWER (ANTRIM TO OTSEGO COUNTY). A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LEAVES MUCH LESS
SNOW...ALMOST ALL BY SYNOPTICS (OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MACK). THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS ALL BUT LEFT THE COUNTIES NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS ALPENA COUNTY.
WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH WET ROADS COULD ICE UP
SOME BY DAYBREAK FOR A SLIPPERY COMMUTE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW KEEPS ON TRUCKING NE WITH THE SFC FRONT SAGGING SE
THROUGH THE CWA. WE LOSE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE DEFORMATION/DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ALL OF THESE
MECHANISMS STILL IN PLAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT...AND
THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS NRN LOWER
WITH SOME BACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEEP DGZ MAY NOT PROVE
TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE FLUFF FACTOR/POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AS THE MAX OMEGA ISN`T CO-LOCATED THERE. WINDS BACK
EVERYWHERE BY LATE DAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 4KFT...AND
THE SNOW REALLY WINDS DOWN...AND GETS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NW
LOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF M-32....AND ACROSS MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN
EASTERN UPPER. CAN SEE AROUND 3 INCHES THIS MORNING IN THE IN AND
AROUND AN AXIS THAT RUNS THROUGH CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WITH
MOST ALL FLOW REGIMES SEEING A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO
FROM ADDED FETCH AND CONVERGENT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THERE.

TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...OUT OF THE SSW AND TO AROUND
10KTS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...WITH ONLY LAKE EFFECTS IN PLAY.
WINDS STILL HAVE MORE OF A WSW FLAVOR TO THEM...PASTING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO FAR NW LOWER...CENTERED AROUND EMMET/CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. THOSE LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SNEAK OUT OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AND A MESOVORTEX IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER ALL IN THE ZONE FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME MINOR WARM ADVECTION AT H8 TO
WHERE WE MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. NOBODY OVER
AN INCH IS THE EXPECTATION.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO AS MILD AS THE LOW TO MID 20S IN LAKE EFFECT/CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE VORTICE FORMATION ACROSS
ANY OF THE THREE BIG LAKES (WHICH MAY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
(WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY NORTH) APPEARS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TVC/PLN...BUT GRADUALLY
DEPART THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HOWEVER WILL
PERIODICALLY IMPACT ALL THE NW MICHIGAN AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THESE WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 INCH
PER HOUR IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES HAS BEEN WANING. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND THE
COAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE NIGHT.

CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR...WITH TEMPORARY IFR WHEN IN SNOWS. WNW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 16-18KTS TODAY...WITH WINDS GOING CALM AT
NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE WARNING. STILL GONNA GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THROUGH TODAY...AS WELL AS PERIODICALLY ACROSS MOST ALL OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY UP EVERYWHERE TODAY.
WINDS DO WEAKEN HEADING THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.

THEN...A LIGHT...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WIND...IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORES
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>023-025>029-031>034.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251540
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1040 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST AND THAT`S
NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF YEAR. SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS JUST STARTING TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA...PROVIDING MANY AREAS
WITH A SOLID 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT (LOCALLY HIGHER OF
COURSE)...SAVE FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE A WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. PLENTY OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT VIA CONTINUED WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR TO HELP BAND THINGS UP...WITH A NORTH FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
TRANSITIONING RAPIDLY TO MORE OF A W/NW OR NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN
LOWER AS QUITE THE TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED OVER THE CWA.
ONE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE BAND AT THE MOMENT SITS FROM NORTHERN
LEELANAU COUNTY DOWN INTO CRAWFORD COUNTY...AND THAT SHOULD PIVOT
BACK NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/
CYCLONIC CURVATURE WEAKENS...BUT STILL NOT BEFORE IT LIKELY DROPS
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-75 AND BETWEEN
M-72 AND M-32. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE WE ALREADY PAINT THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION...AND THAT LOOKS FINE...WITH PRIMARILY AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR LESS MOST OTHER SPOTS.

LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET TO CAN THE GOING ADVISORY EARLY FOR
MANY AREAS (OUTSIDE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AREAS)...BUT WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK HERE IN A BIT (BEFORE NOON) BEFORE MAKING THAT FINAL
DECISION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WELCOME BACK WINTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING NE THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE EXTENDED BACK THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...YET SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST WEST OF US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...DEEP MOISTURE
AND DEFORMATION RIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT DEEP H8-H5 FORCING/-DIVQ HOWEVER IS HEADING NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS
WISCONSIN ARE SLOW TO LIFT NE...BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS WANING. WE
ARE IN THE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL...AS H8 TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY GET THE LAKES GOING. THIS IS SEEN
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WITH BANDED STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE
SYSTEM SNOW. ROUGHLY 1-3" OF SNOW HAD FALLEN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT AND ALMOST ALL
SYNOPTIC. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE REALLY KICKED IN. 1-2"/HR
SNOWS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE NW/WNW FLOW REGIMES
OF NRN LOWER (ANTRIM TO OTSEGO COUNTY). A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LEAVES MUCH LESS
SNOW...ALMOST ALL BY SYNOPTICS (OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MACK). THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS ALL BUT LEFT THE COUNTIES NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS ALPENA COUNTY.
WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH WET ROADS COULD ICE UP
SOME BY DAYBREAK FOR A SLIPPERY COMMUTE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW KEEPS ON TRUCKING NE WITH THE SFC FRONT SAGGING SE
THROUGH THE CWA. WE LOSE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE DEFORMATION/DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ALL OF THESE
MECHANISMS STILL IN PLAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT...AND
THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS NRN LOWER
WITH SOME BACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEEP DGZ MAY NOT PROVE
TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE FLUFF FACTOR/POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AS THE MAX OMEGA ISN`T CO-LOCATED THERE. WINDS BACK
EVERYWHERE BY LATE DAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 4KFT...AND
THE SNOW REALLY WINDS DOWN...AND GETS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NW
LOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF M-32....AND ACROSS MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN
EASTERN UPPER. CAN SEE AROUND 3 INCHES THIS MORNING IN THE IN AND
AROUND AN AXIS THAT RUNS THROUGH CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WITH
MOST ALL FLOW REGIMES SEEING A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO
FROM ADDED FETCH AND CONVERGENT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THERE.

TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...OUT OF THE SSW AND TO AROUND
10KTS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...WITH ONLY LAKE EFFECTS IN PLAY.
WINDS STILL HAVE MORE OF A WSW FLAVOR TO THEM...PASTING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO FAR NW LOWER...CENTERED AROUND EMMET/CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. THOSE LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SNEAK OUT OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AND A MESOVORTEX IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER ALL IN THE ZONE FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME MINOR WARM ADVECTION AT H8 TO
WHERE WE MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. NOBODY OVER
AN INCH IS THE EXPECTATION.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO AS MILD AS THE LOW TO MID 20S IN LAKE EFFECT/CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE VORTICE FORMATION ACROSS
ANY OF THE THREE BIG LAKES (WHICH MAY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
(WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY NORTH) APPEARS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TVC/PLN...BUT GRADUALLY
DEPART THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HOWEVER WILL
PERIODICALLY IMPACT ALL THE NW MICHIGAN AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THESE WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 INCH
PER HOUR IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES HAS BEEN WANING. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND THE
COAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE NIGHT.

CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR...WITH TEMPORARY IFR WHEN IN SNOWS. WNW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 16-18KTS TODAY...WITH WINDS GOING CALM AT
NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE WARNING. STILL GONNA GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THROUGH TODAY...AS WELL AS PERIODICALLY ACROSS MOST ALL OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY UP EVERYWHERE TODAY.
WINDS DO WEAKEN HEADING THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.

THEN...A LIGHT...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WIND...IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORES
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>023-025>029-031>034.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251126
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
626 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WELCOME BACK WINTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING NE THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE EXTENDED BACK THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...YET SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST WEST OF US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...DEEP MOISTURE
AND DEFORMATION RIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT DEEP H8-H5 FORCING/-DIVQ HOWEVER IS HEADING NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS
WISCONSIN ARE SLOW TO LIFT NE...BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS WANING. WE
ARE IN THE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL...AS H8 TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY GET THE LAKES GOING. THIS IS SEEN
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WITH BANDED STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE
SYSTEM SNOW. ROUGHLY 1-3" OF SNOW HAD FALLEN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT AND ALMOST ALL
SYNOPTIC. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE REALLY KICKED IN. 1-2"/HR
SNOWS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE NW/WNW FLOW REGIMES
OF NRN LOWER (ANTRIM TO OTSEGO COUNTY). A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LEAVES MUCH LESS
SNOW...ALMOST ALL BY SYNOPTICS (OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MACK). THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS ALL BUT LEFT THE COUNTIES NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS ALPENA COUNTY.
WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH WET ROADS COULD ICE UP
SOME BY DAYBREAK FOR A SLIPPERY COMMUTE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW KEEPS ON TRUCKING NE WITH THE SFC FRONT SAGGING SE
THROUGH THE CWA. WE LOSE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE DEFORMATION/DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ALL OF THESE
MECHANISMS STILL IN PLAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT...AND
THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS NRN LOWER
WITH SOME BACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEEP DGZ MAY NOT PROVE
TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE FLUFF FACTOR/POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AS THE MAX OMEGA ISN`T CO-LOCATED THERE. WINDS BACK
EVERYWHERE BY LATE DAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 4KFT...AND
THE SNOW REALLY WINDS DOWN...AND GETS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NW
LOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF M-32....AND ACROSS MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN
EASTERN UPPER. CAN SEE AROUND 3 INCHES THIS MORNING IN THE IN AND
AROUND AN AXIS THAT RUNS THROUGH CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WITH
MOST ALL FLOW REGIMES SEEING A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO
FROM ADDED FETCH AND CONVERGENT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THERE.

TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...OUT OF THE SSW AND TO AROUND
10KTS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...WITH ONLY LAKE EFFECTS IN PLAY.
WINDS STILL HAVE MORE OF A WSW FLAVOR TO THEM...PASTING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO FAR NW LOWER...CENTERED AROUND EMMET/CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. THOSE LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SNEAK OUT OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AND A MESOVORTEX IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER ALL IN THE ZONE FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME MINOR WARM ADVECTION AT H8 TO
WHERE WE MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. NOBODY OVER
AN INCH IS THE EXPECTATION.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO AS MILD AS THE LOW TO MID 20S IN LAKE EFFECT/CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE VORTICE FORMATION ACROSS
ANY OF THE THREE BIG LAKES (WHICH MAY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
(WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY NORTH) APPEARS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TVC/PLN...BUT GRADUALLY
DEPART THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HOWEVER WILL
PERIODICALLY IMPACT ALL THE NW MICHIGAN AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THESE WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 INCH
PER HOUR IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES HAS BEEN WANING. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND THE
COAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE NIGHT.

CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR...WITH TEMPORARY IFR WHEN IN SNOWS. WNW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 16-18KTS TODAY...WITH WINDS GOING CALM AT
NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE WARNING. STILL GONNA GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THROUGH TODAY...AS WELL AS PERIODICALLY ACROSS MOST ALL OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY UP EVERYWHERE TODAY.
WINDS DO WEAKEN HEADING THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.

THEN...A LIGHT...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WIND...IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORES
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>023-025>029-031>034.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251126
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
626 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WELCOME BACK WINTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING NE THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE EXTENDED BACK THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...YET SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST WEST OF US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...DEEP MOISTURE
AND DEFORMATION RIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT DEEP H8-H5 FORCING/-DIVQ HOWEVER IS HEADING NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS
WISCONSIN ARE SLOW TO LIFT NE...BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS WANING. WE
ARE IN THE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL...AS H8 TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY GET THE LAKES GOING. THIS IS SEEN
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WITH BANDED STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE
SYSTEM SNOW. ROUGHLY 1-3" OF SNOW HAD FALLEN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT AND ALMOST ALL
SYNOPTIC. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE REALLY KICKED IN. 1-2"/HR
SNOWS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE NW/WNW FLOW REGIMES
OF NRN LOWER (ANTRIM TO OTSEGO COUNTY). A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LEAVES MUCH LESS
SNOW...ALMOST ALL BY SYNOPTICS (OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MACK). THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS ALL BUT LEFT THE COUNTIES NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS ALPENA COUNTY.
WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH WET ROADS COULD ICE UP
SOME BY DAYBREAK FOR A SLIPPERY COMMUTE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW KEEPS ON TRUCKING NE WITH THE SFC FRONT SAGGING SE
THROUGH THE CWA. WE LOSE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE DEFORMATION/DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ALL OF THESE
MECHANISMS STILL IN PLAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT...AND
THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS NRN LOWER
WITH SOME BACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEEP DGZ MAY NOT PROVE
TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE FLUFF FACTOR/POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AS THE MAX OMEGA ISN`T CO-LOCATED THERE. WINDS BACK
EVERYWHERE BY LATE DAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 4KFT...AND
THE SNOW REALLY WINDS DOWN...AND GETS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NW
LOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF M-32....AND ACROSS MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN
EASTERN UPPER. CAN SEE AROUND 3 INCHES THIS MORNING IN THE IN AND
AROUND AN AXIS THAT RUNS THROUGH CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WITH
MOST ALL FLOW REGIMES SEEING A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO
FROM ADDED FETCH AND CONVERGENT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THERE.

TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...OUT OF THE SSW AND TO AROUND
10KTS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...WITH ONLY LAKE EFFECTS IN PLAY.
WINDS STILL HAVE MORE OF A WSW FLAVOR TO THEM...PASTING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO FAR NW LOWER...CENTERED AROUND EMMET/CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. THOSE LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SNEAK OUT OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AND A MESOVORTEX IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER ALL IN THE ZONE FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME MINOR WARM ADVECTION AT H8 TO
WHERE WE MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. NOBODY OVER
AN INCH IS THE EXPECTATION.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO AS MILD AS THE LOW TO MID 20S IN LAKE EFFECT/CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE VORTICE FORMATION ACROSS
ANY OF THE THREE BIG LAKES (WHICH MAY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
(WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY NORTH) APPEARS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TVC/PLN...BUT GRADUALLY
DEPART THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HOWEVER WILL
PERIODICALLY IMPACT ALL THE NW MICHIGAN AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THESE WILL ALSO WANE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 INCH
PER HOUR IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES HAS BEEN WANING. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND THE
COAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE NIGHT.

CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR...WITH TEMPORARY IFR WHEN IN SNOWS. WNW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 16-18KTS TODAY...WITH WINDS GOING CALM AT
NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE WARNING. STILL GONNA GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THROUGH TODAY...AS WELL AS PERIODICALLY ACROSS MOST ALL OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY UP EVERYWHERE TODAY.
WINDS DO WEAKEN HEADING THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.

THEN...A LIGHT...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WIND...IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORES
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>023-025>029-031>034.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 250934
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WELCOME BACK WINTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING NE THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE EXTENDED BACK THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...YET SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST WEST OF US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...DEEP MOISTURE
AND DEFORMATION RIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT DEEP H8-H5 FORCING/-DIVQ HOWEVER IS HEADING NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS
WISCONSIN ARE SLOW TO LIFT NE...BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS WANING. WE
ARE IN THE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL...AS H8 TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY GET THE LAKES GOING. THIS IS SEEN
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WITH BANDED STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE
SYSTEM SNOW. ROUGHLY 1-3" OF SNOW HAD FALLEN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT AND ALMOST ALL
SYNOPTIC. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE REALLY KICKED IN. 1-2"/HR
SNOWS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE NW/WNW FLOW REGIMES
OF NRN LOWER (ANTRIM TO OTSEGO COUNTY). A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LEAVES MUCH LESS
SNOW...ALMOST ALL BY SYNOPTICS (OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MACK). THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS ALL BUT LEFT THE COUNTIES NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS ALPENA COUNTY.
WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH WET ROADS COULD ICE UP
SOME BY DAYBREAK FOR A SLIPPERY COMMUTE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW KEEPS ON TRUCKING NE WITH THE SFC FRONT SAGGING SE
THROUGH THE CWA. WE LOSE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE DEFORMATION/DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ALL OF THESE
MECHANISMS STILL IN PLAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT...AND
THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS NRN LOWER
WITH SOME BACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEEP DGZ MAY NOT PROVE
TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE FLUFF FACTOR/POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AS THE MAX OMEGA ISN`T CO-LOCATED THERE. WINDS BACK
EVERYWHERE BY LATE DAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 4KFT...AND
THE SNOW REALLY WINDS DOWN...AND GETS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NW
LOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF M-32....AND ACROSS MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN
EASTERN UPPER. CAN SEE AROUND 3 INCHES THIS MORNING IN THE IN AND
AROUND AN AXIS THAT RUNS THROUGH CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WITH
MOST ALL FLOW REGIMES SEEING A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO
FROM ADDED FETCH AND CONVERGENT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THERE.

TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...OUT OF THE SSW AND TO AROUND
10KTS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...WITH ONLY LAKE EFFECTS IN PLAY.
WINDS STILL HAVE MORE OF A WSW FLAVOR TO THEM...PASTING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO FAR NW LOWER...CENTERED AROUND EMMET/CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. THOSE LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SNEAK OUT OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AND A MESOVORTEX IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER ALL IN THE ZONE FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME MINOR WARM ADVECTION AT H8 TO
WHERE WE MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. NOBODY OVER
AN INCH IS THE EXPECTATION.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO AS MILD AS THE LOW TO MID 20S IN LAKE EFFECT/CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE VORTICE FORMATION ACROSS
ANY OF THE THREE BIG LAKES (WHICH MAY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
(WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY NORTH) APPEARS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THRU
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND DEEP WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW REMAIN
OVERHEAD. INCREASING OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME W/NW
FLOW LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO SNOWFALL INTENSITY FOR THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELT REGIONS OF NW AND N CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE WARNING. STILL GONNA GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THROUGH TODAY...AS WELL AS PERIODICALLY ACROSS MOST ALL OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY UP EVERYWHERE TODAY.
WINDS DO WEAKEN HEADING THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.

THEN...A LIGHT...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WIND...IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORES
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>023-025>029-031>034.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SMD




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