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000
FXUS63 KAPX 110346
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1046 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAS GIVEN WAY TO
REORGANIZATION OF NNW/NW FLOW ORIENTED BANDS. THE DOMINANT AND VERY
IMPRESSIVE BAND STRETCHES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL THE WAY ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THEN INLAND FROM NEAR NORTHPORT DOWN THE WEST ARM OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS BAND IN TACT AND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS KIND OF SCARY. SO AT THIS POINT AM
GOING TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME SPOTS COULD SEE LOCALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 12
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS CAN
DECOUPLE (THEY ARE TRYING). WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR SPOTS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 WHERE MINS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OR
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRR RUN
LINES UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS IN
THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025-027-031>033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ026.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 110346
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1046 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAS GIVEN WAY TO
REORGANIZATION OF NNW/NW FLOW ORIENTED BANDS. THE DOMINANT AND VERY
IMPRESSIVE BAND STRETCHES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL THE WAY ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THEN INLAND FROM NEAR NORTHPORT DOWN THE WEST ARM OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS BAND IN TACT AND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS KIND OF SCARY. SO AT THIS POINT AM
GOING TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME SPOTS COULD SEE LOCALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 12
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS CAN
DECOUPLE (THEY ARE TRYING). WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR SPOTS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 WHERE MINS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OR
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRR RUN
LINES UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS IN
THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025-027-031>033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ026.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 110346
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1046 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIURNAL DISRUPTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAS GIVEN WAY TO
REORGANIZATION OF NNW/NW FLOW ORIENTED BANDS. THE DOMINANT AND VERY
IMPRESSIVE BAND STRETCHES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL THE WAY ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THEN INLAND FROM NEAR NORTHPORT DOWN THE WEST ARM OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS BAND IN TACT AND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS KIND OF SCARY. SO AT THIS POINT AM
GOING TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME SPOTS COULD SEE LOCALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 12
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS CAN
DECOUPLE (THEY ARE TRYING). WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR SPOTS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75 WHERE MINS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OR
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRR RUN
LINES UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS IN
THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025-027-031>033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ026.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 102345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN LINES
UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025>027-031>033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 102345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN LINES
UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025>027-031>033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 102345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN LINES
UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BACKING WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TVC LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED BY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MBL SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. APN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AND OUT OF ACTIVITY WHILE PLN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BANDS...BUT WITH THE BACKING FLOW SOME ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
THE AIRPORT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW
END VFR...BUT FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS. DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE DOMINANT BAND SETS UP...TVC MAY FALL TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN JUST A BIT TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025>027-031>033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 102032
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND COLD.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SE-WARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TROFFING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...PRODUCED IN PART BY THE GREAT
LAKES THEMSELVES. A SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR THIS TROFFING TO RELAX
TONIGHT AS RIDGING TO OUR WEST BECOMES STRONGER. THAT WILL BACK
1000-850MB WINDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...TO A BORDERLINE NW/NNW BY
MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN NW LOWER...AND VERY SMALL
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER (ROGERS TO APN) AND EASTERN UPPER (FAR
WESTERN MACK). ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
DISRUPTED BY DIURNAL HEATING (SUCH AS IT IS). SNOW TRENDS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOW ALLOW FOR SOME REORGANIZATION
TOWARD LATE EVENING...THOUGH A CONTINUED DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING INSANELY OUT OF LINE. LATEST HRRR RUN LINES
UP NICELY WITH RECENT RADAR/OB TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING. IN PARTICULAR...DOMINANT BANDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SET
UP EITHER SIDE OF TVC. LOCALIZED 4-6 INCH ACCUMS AGAIN LIKELY...
PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX A BIT TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING...WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL TREND DOWNWARD. SO WILL SEE LESS
IN THE WAY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

WITH THE ABOVE TRENDS...HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS BUT LESS WIND/BLSN...
WILL REPLACE THE ONGOING WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL REMAIN AS SUCH. ALL ADVISORIES WILL RUN THRU
NOON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO PESTER ROGERS CITY/APN AREA...WITH
1-3 INCH ACCUMS THERE. THE SLIGHT BACKING TO THE WINDS WILL PUSH
SHSN INTO FAR WESTERN CHIP AS WELL AS MACK...WITH 1-3 INCH ACCUMS
ALSO REASONABLE THERE. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...CURRENT CLOUD
COVER HAS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT...AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN BOTH PENINSULAS.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10F IN NW LOWER NEAR LAKE
MI...TO NEARLY -10F AT THE SAULT. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PLUNGE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.  PATTERN BREAKS NEXT WEEK WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THURSDAY...THERMAL TROUGH BE EAST OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS MORE SUBSIDENCE WORKS
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY WEST OF I-75
AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST LOWER /PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA/.  WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY FANNING OUT THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO BRINGING THEM EASTWARD
TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LAKE VORTEX DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE BANDING.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARLY DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DICTATE
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BANDS...FOCUSING ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR.
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION HEIGHTS BACK UP
TOWARD 700MB.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS BAND IS PERSISTENT OVER A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD.

FRIDAY...OUR SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD....WITH A NICE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DIV-Q.  IF THE BAND REMAINS TRANSITORY...THEN
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS LOOKS GOOD...WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLY BOOSTING TOTALS IN
SOME AREAS. THIS BURST OF SNOW COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS
/ALBEIT BRIEFLY/ AND IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES /850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING/.  TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH A BRISK
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING...ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A 330-
340 DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-
LAKE BAND /SIMILAR TO OUR CURRENT SET-UP OF LAKE EFFECT/ THAT
IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR.  BUT BY THIS TIME
850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFLAKE
GROWTH PROCESSES RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER FLAKE SIZES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE AS MUCH. SMALL FLAKES ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND
WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH CAN CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT /OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
AREAS/...WITH READINGS OF -20 DEGF POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING.

SATURDAY...ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE TEMPERATURES...BRUTAL.  COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER IMPACTING MICHIGAN WITH ARCTIC HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT REACH ZERO.  WIND CHILL READINGS OF -15 TO -25
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT US CLOSE TO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AREAS...WITH VERY SMALL FLAKE SIZE BUT POTENTIALLY POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS OF SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COUPLE SURFACE LOWS PRODUCING CHANCES OF
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SNOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE US-2 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
UPPER. THE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND A NARROW RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL VERY LIKELY AT LEAST CREATE
LAKE CLOUDS...IF NOT SQUEEZE SOME LIGHT SNOW OUT AT TIMES TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN HINT AT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY AND MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT TVC. MAINLY MVFR ELSEWHERE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CLOUDS CONTINUE...AS COLD AIR ENTERS THE REGION
FROM THE NNW. ONGOING WIND DIRECTIONS TARGETS MAINLY TVC...TO A
LESSER DEGREE MBL/APN...AND PLN NOT AT ALL. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL
BE COMMON OUTSIDE OF SHSN. INSIDE OF SHSN...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NW WINDS (GUSTING TO 20-25KT) WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE
EARLY THU MORNING...AND THAT HOLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HOWEVER...W
TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD WELL BE NEEDED THEN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ019>021-
     025>027-031>033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 101742
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROFFING IS FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND...AND IN
ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON NNW FLOW...WITH TEMPS NEAR ZERO IN THE ST MARYS
VALLEY...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE IN NW LOWER MI...NEAR AND W OF M-66...AS
REFLECTS A NNW FLOW. LAST OF VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL EXIT NE
LOWER IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ONLY FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC CO IS BEDEVILED BY ANY SHSN.

HAVE HAD TO SHARPLY REDUCE CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELTS...
SKIES ARE ALREADY OPENING UP NICELY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN
BOTH PENINSULAS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED AFTERNOON SHSN IN THE FAR SE.

AS FOR NW LOWER...STEADY AS SHE GOES. WIND FIELDS DON/T BUDGE AT
ALL THRU THIS EVENING...AND BROADER AIRMASS ISN/T GOING TO GET ANY
DRIER THAN IT ALREADY IS. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (NEARLY 6 INCHES) IN WESTERN
LEELANAU AND EASTERN BENZIE COUNTIES. THE REAL QUESTION IS WHAT TO
DO TONIGHT...RE: HEADLINES...WITH CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRING LATER
TODAY. WE SEE A TINY BIT OF BACKING IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...NOT
NEARLY ENOUGH TO REMOVE A SUPERIOR CONNECTION. STILL UNDECIDED AS
TO WHETHER TO EXTEND THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS-IS THRU TONIGHT...OR
TO GO WITH ADVISORIES IN NW LOWER MI TONIGHT. WILL EVALUATE THIS
FURTHER AS THE DAY PROCEEDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...COLD WITH LAKE SNOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUING HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

OVERVIEW: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NOAM...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
CERTAINLY A PATTERN MORE AKIN TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WINTERS AND
CERTAINLY NOT EL-NINO LIKE. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTER LAKES. COLDER AIR
HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW NUDGING INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED AN UPTICK/ORGANIZATION IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
I HAD HOPED IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR WARNINGS. OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT...A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BACK EDGE TO THE BACKGROUND SNOW
IS WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST
END TO THE BACKGROUND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING JUST THE LOCKED IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL
WITH. AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT IS CONCERNED...EXTREME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS
-22C OR COLDER/A DEEP LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER/HIGH
CAPE...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 8K FEET. SUBSIDENCE AND
INCOMING DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
BATTLING THE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
LAYER...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY THROTTLE BACK LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES TO SOME DEGREE. A LOWERING DGZ MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ALTHOUGH I THINK SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND RESULTING FLUFF
FACTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER HEALTHY WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS (I WOULD
REALLY LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS A BIT COLDER BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT REDUCED RATIOS/SMALLER FLAKES). BUT THE OVERALL BOTTOM
LINE...CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NNW LAKE EFFECT FLOW
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY TRIMMING POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA.

ACCUMULATIONS: ARW/NMM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT
SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...UPWARD OF AN INCH WITHIN THE MODELED
MOST PERSISTENT BANDING. CONCERNING TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT PROBABLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
LAKE CONVECTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR. BUT JUST
BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOCKED-IN NNW FLOW/AND LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTED BANDING...I STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES IS REASONABLE IN AND AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY PARTICULAR BAND BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER AN AREA. SHY OF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AS-IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GATHER REPORTS AND FIND OUT
JUST WHERE WE ARE AT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH
FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH +PNA/-EPO
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE DOOR
FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT.
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE POLE PULLS AN UPPER LOW DOWN TO JAMES
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY.  SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  POLAR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH SOME BRUTALLY
COLD THICKNESSES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (SUB-495DM INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  WILL ALSO SEE LARGER SCALE
DOWNWARD FORCING SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF INVERSION HEIGHTS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING TO START THURSDAY MORNING BASICALLY ALONG-WEST OF I-75
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...AND PERHAPS CLIPPING PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST LOWER.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND NOT AS FOCUSED OVER ANY
ONE AREA.  MAY BE ONE ELONGATED BAND WITH AN EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN COUNTIES.  IF SUCH A BAND
WERE TO EXIST THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
WITH TIME...BUT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS BEFORE
MOVING ON ESPECIALLY IF A LAKE INDUCED VORTEX CAN BE GENERATED IN
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. DECENT PROBABILITY FOR SOME
SUN ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CLOUD UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GETTING ADVECTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  A CHILLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THUS SHOULD BE THE ORIENTATION OF CONTINUING LAKE
CONVECTION.  SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY RAISES SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION
HEIGHTS BACK UP TOWARD 700MB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FOCUSED WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND WITH DECENT SNOWFALL RATES.  PERSISTENCE OF
SUCH A BAND IS IN QUESTION...AS IT MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD DEEPER
INTO EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE
FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN WESTERLY BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY AGGREGATE LAKE WARMTH...BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
(LAKE ENHANCED) SNOW.  COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS
WELL...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW TRANSIENT
THIS FEATURE IS.  FOR NOW A FORECAST OF 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO SET UP AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES (850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING).
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING ANTICIPATING WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO A 330-340
DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-LAKE
BAND THAT IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...BUT BY
THIS TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKE SIZES
THAT ARE LESS EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THOUGH 2-4 INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE CENTERED AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BUT SMALLER FLAKES
ARE MORE PRONE TO GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH.
WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT...FALLING
TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HEART OF THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE IMPACTING MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...AS 1044+MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPLITS
AROUND THE UPPER LAKES AS IT BUILDS EAST BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AS COLD AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND.  WARM AIR RETURN FLOW
WILL START LATER SUNDAY ONCE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WINDS CAN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  RETURN OF WARMER AIR
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...OR PERHAPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD SATURDAY...SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS MOST AREAS EXCEPT WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER UNDER
LAKE INFLUENCE.  SOME AREAS (FAR EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHERN LOWER) MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO.  COULD FINALLY BE A PRECIP-
FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
MORE PASSING SYSTEMS.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT TVC. MAINLY MVFR ELSEWHERE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CLOUDS CONTINUE...AS COLD AIR ENTERS THE REGION
FROM THE NNW. ONGOING WIND DIRECTIONS TARGETS MAINLY TVC...TO A
LESSER DEGREE MBL/APN...AND PLN NOT AT ALL. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL
BE COMMON OUTSIDE OF SHSN. INSIDE OF SHSN...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NW WINDS (GUSTING TO 20-25KT) WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...GUSTY WINDS/BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 101742
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROFFING IS FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND...AND IN
ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON NNW FLOW...WITH TEMPS NEAR ZERO IN THE ST MARYS
VALLEY...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE IN NW LOWER MI...NEAR AND W OF M-66...AS
REFLECTS A NNW FLOW. LAST OF VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL EXIT NE
LOWER IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ONLY FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC CO IS BEDEVILED BY ANY SHSN.

HAVE HAD TO SHARPLY REDUCE CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELTS...
SKIES ARE ALREADY OPENING UP NICELY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN
BOTH PENINSULAS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED AFTERNOON SHSN IN THE FAR SE.

AS FOR NW LOWER...STEADY AS SHE GOES. WIND FIELDS DON/T BUDGE AT
ALL THRU THIS EVENING...AND BROADER AIRMASS ISN/T GOING TO GET ANY
DRIER THAN IT ALREADY IS. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (NEARLY 6 INCHES) IN WESTERN
LEELANAU AND EASTERN BENZIE COUNTIES. THE REAL QUESTION IS WHAT TO
DO TONIGHT...RE: HEADLINES...WITH CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRING LATER
TODAY. WE SEE A TINY BIT OF BACKING IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...NOT
NEARLY ENOUGH TO REMOVE A SUPERIOR CONNECTION. STILL UNDECIDED AS
TO WHETHER TO EXTEND THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS-IS THRU TONIGHT...OR
TO GO WITH ADVISORIES IN NW LOWER MI TONIGHT. WILL EVALUATE THIS
FURTHER AS THE DAY PROCEEDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...COLD WITH LAKE SNOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUING HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

OVERVIEW: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NOAM...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
CERTAINLY A PATTERN MORE AKIN TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WINTERS AND
CERTAINLY NOT EL-NINO LIKE. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTER LAKES. COLDER AIR
HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW NUDGING INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED AN UPTICK/ORGANIZATION IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
I HAD HOPED IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR WARNINGS. OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT...A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BACK EDGE TO THE BACKGROUND SNOW
IS WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST
END TO THE BACKGROUND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING JUST THE LOCKED IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL
WITH. AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT IS CONCERNED...EXTREME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS
-22C OR COLDER/A DEEP LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER/HIGH
CAPE...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 8K FEET. SUBSIDENCE AND
INCOMING DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
BATTLING THE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
LAYER...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY THROTTLE BACK LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES TO SOME DEGREE. A LOWERING DGZ MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ALTHOUGH I THINK SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND RESULTING FLUFF
FACTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER HEALTHY WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS (I WOULD
REALLY LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS A BIT COLDER BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT REDUCED RATIOS/SMALLER FLAKES). BUT THE OVERALL BOTTOM
LINE...CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NNW LAKE EFFECT FLOW
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY TRIMMING POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA.

ACCUMULATIONS: ARW/NMM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT
SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...UPWARD OF AN INCH WITHIN THE MODELED
MOST PERSISTENT BANDING. CONCERNING TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT PROBABLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
LAKE CONVECTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR. BUT JUST
BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOCKED-IN NNW FLOW/AND LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTED BANDING...I STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES IS REASONABLE IN AND AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY PARTICULAR BAND BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER AN AREA. SHY OF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AS-IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GATHER REPORTS AND FIND OUT
JUST WHERE WE ARE AT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH
FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH +PNA/-EPO
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE DOOR
FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT.
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE POLE PULLS AN UPPER LOW DOWN TO JAMES
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY.  SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  POLAR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH SOME BRUTALLY
COLD THICKNESSES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (SUB-495DM INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  WILL ALSO SEE LARGER SCALE
DOWNWARD FORCING SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF INVERSION HEIGHTS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING TO START THURSDAY MORNING BASICALLY ALONG-WEST OF I-75
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...AND PERHAPS CLIPPING PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST LOWER.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND NOT AS FOCUSED OVER ANY
ONE AREA.  MAY BE ONE ELONGATED BAND WITH AN EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN COUNTIES.  IF SUCH A BAND
WERE TO EXIST THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
WITH TIME...BUT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS BEFORE
MOVING ON ESPECIALLY IF A LAKE INDUCED VORTEX CAN BE GENERATED IN
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. DECENT PROBABILITY FOR SOME
SUN ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CLOUD UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GETTING ADVECTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  A CHILLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THUS SHOULD BE THE ORIENTATION OF CONTINUING LAKE
CONVECTION.  SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY RAISES SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION
HEIGHTS BACK UP TOWARD 700MB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FOCUSED WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND WITH DECENT SNOWFALL RATES.  PERSISTENCE OF
SUCH A BAND IS IN QUESTION...AS IT MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD DEEPER
INTO EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE
FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN WESTERLY BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY AGGREGATE LAKE WARMTH...BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
(LAKE ENHANCED) SNOW.  COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS
WELL...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW TRANSIENT
THIS FEATURE IS.  FOR NOW A FORECAST OF 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO SET UP AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES (850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING).
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING ANTICIPATING WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO A 330-340
DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-LAKE
BAND THAT IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...BUT BY
THIS TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKE SIZES
THAT ARE LESS EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THOUGH 2-4 INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE CENTERED AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BUT SMALLER FLAKES
ARE MORE PRONE TO GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH.
WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT...FALLING
TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HEART OF THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE IMPACTING MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...AS 1044+MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPLITS
AROUND THE UPPER LAKES AS IT BUILDS EAST BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AS COLD AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND.  WARM AIR RETURN FLOW
WILL START LATER SUNDAY ONCE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WINDS CAN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  RETURN OF WARMER AIR
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...OR PERHAPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD SATURDAY...SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS MOST AREAS EXCEPT WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER UNDER
LAKE INFLUENCE.  SOME AREAS (FAR EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHERN LOWER) MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO.  COULD FINALLY BE A PRECIP-
FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
MORE PASSING SYSTEMS.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT TVC. MAINLY MVFR ELSEWHERE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CLOUDS CONTINUE...AS COLD AIR ENTERS THE REGION
FROM THE NNW. ONGOING WIND DIRECTIONS TARGETS MAINLY TVC...TO A
LESSER DEGREE MBL/APN...AND PLN NOT AT ALL. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL
BE COMMON OUTSIDE OF SHSN. INSIDE OF SHSN...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NW WINDS (GUSTING TO 20-25KT) WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...GUSTY WINDS/BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 101742
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROFFING IS FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND...AND IN
ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON NNW FLOW...WITH TEMPS NEAR ZERO IN THE ST MARYS
VALLEY...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE IN NW LOWER MI...NEAR AND W OF M-66...AS
REFLECTS A NNW FLOW. LAST OF VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL EXIT NE
LOWER IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ONLY FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC CO IS BEDEVILED BY ANY SHSN.

HAVE HAD TO SHARPLY REDUCE CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELTS...
SKIES ARE ALREADY OPENING UP NICELY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN
BOTH PENINSULAS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED AFTERNOON SHSN IN THE FAR SE.

AS FOR NW LOWER...STEADY AS SHE GOES. WIND FIELDS DON/T BUDGE AT
ALL THRU THIS EVENING...AND BROADER AIRMASS ISN/T GOING TO GET ANY
DRIER THAN IT ALREADY IS. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (NEARLY 6 INCHES) IN WESTERN
LEELANAU AND EASTERN BENZIE COUNTIES. THE REAL QUESTION IS WHAT TO
DO TONIGHT...RE: HEADLINES...WITH CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRING LATER
TODAY. WE SEE A TINY BIT OF BACKING IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...NOT
NEARLY ENOUGH TO REMOVE A SUPERIOR CONNECTION. STILL UNDECIDED AS
TO WHETHER TO EXTEND THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS-IS THRU TONIGHT...OR
TO GO WITH ADVISORIES IN NW LOWER MI TONIGHT. WILL EVALUATE THIS
FURTHER AS THE DAY PROCEEDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...COLD WITH LAKE SNOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUING HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

OVERVIEW: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NOAM...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
CERTAINLY A PATTERN MORE AKIN TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WINTERS AND
CERTAINLY NOT EL-NINO LIKE. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTER LAKES. COLDER AIR
HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW NUDGING INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED AN UPTICK/ORGANIZATION IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
I HAD HOPED IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR WARNINGS. OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT...A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BACK EDGE TO THE BACKGROUND SNOW
IS WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST
END TO THE BACKGROUND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING JUST THE LOCKED IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL
WITH. AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT IS CONCERNED...EXTREME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS
-22C OR COLDER/A DEEP LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER/HIGH
CAPE...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 8K FEET. SUBSIDENCE AND
INCOMING DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
BATTLING THE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
LAYER...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY THROTTLE BACK LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES TO SOME DEGREE. A LOWERING DGZ MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ALTHOUGH I THINK SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND RESULTING FLUFF
FACTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER HEALTHY WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS (I WOULD
REALLY LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS A BIT COLDER BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT REDUCED RATIOS/SMALLER FLAKES). BUT THE OVERALL BOTTOM
LINE...CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NNW LAKE EFFECT FLOW
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY TRIMMING POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA.

ACCUMULATIONS: ARW/NMM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT
SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...UPWARD OF AN INCH WITHIN THE MODELED
MOST PERSISTENT BANDING. CONCERNING TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT PROBABLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
LAKE CONVECTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR. BUT JUST
BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOCKED-IN NNW FLOW/AND LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTED BANDING...I STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES IS REASONABLE IN AND AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY PARTICULAR BAND BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER AN AREA. SHY OF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AS-IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GATHER REPORTS AND FIND OUT
JUST WHERE WE ARE AT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH
FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH +PNA/-EPO
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE DOOR
FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT.
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE POLE PULLS AN UPPER LOW DOWN TO JAMES
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY.  SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  POLAR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH SOME BRUTALLY
COLD THICKNESSES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (SUB-495DM INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  WILL ALSO SEE LARGER SCALE
DOWNWARD FORCING SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF INVERSION HEIGHTS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING TO START THURSDAY MORNING BASICALLY ALONG-WEST OF I-75
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...AND PERHAPS CLIPPING PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST LOWER.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND NOT AS FOCUSED OVER ANY
ONE AREA.  MAY BE ONE ELONGATED BAND WITH AN EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN COUNTIES.  IF SUCH A BAND
WERE TO EXIST THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
WITH TIME...BUT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS BEFORE
MOVING ON ESPECIALLY IF A LAKE INDUCED VORTEX CAN BE GENERATED IN
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. DECENT PROBABILITY FOR SOME
SUN ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CLOUD UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GETTING ADVECTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  A CHILLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THUS SHOULD BE THE ORIENTATION OF CONTINUING LAKE
CONVECTION.  SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY RAISES SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION
HEIGHTS BACK UP TOWARD 700MB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FOCUSED WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND WITH DECENT SNOWFALL RATES.  PERSISTENCE OF
SUCH A BAND IS IN QUESTION...AS IT MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD DEEPER
INTO EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE
FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN WESTERLY BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY AGGREGATE LAKE WARMTH...BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
(LAKE ENHANCED) SNOW.  COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS
WELL...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW TRANSIENT
THIS FEATURE IS.  FOR NOW A FORECAST OF 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO SET UP AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES (850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING).
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING ANTICIPATING WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO A 330-340
DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-LAKE
BAND THAT IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...BUT BY
THIS TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKE SIZES
THAT ARE LESS EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THOUGH 2-4 INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE CENTERED AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BUT SMALLER FLAKES
ARE MORE PRONE TO GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH.
WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT...FALLING
TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HEART OF THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE IMPACTING MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...AS 1044+MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPLITS
AROUND THE UPPER LAKES AS IT BUILDS EAST BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AS COLD AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND.  WARM AIR RETURN FLOW
WILL START LATER SUNDAY ONCE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WINDS CAN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  RETURN OF WARMER AIR
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...OR PERHAPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD SATURDAY...SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS MOST AREAS EXCEPT WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER UNDER
LAKE INFLUENCE.  SOME AREAS (FAR EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHERN LOWER) MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO.  COULD FINALLY BE A PRECIP-
FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
MORE PASSING SYSTEMS.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT TVC. MAINLY MVFR ELSEWHERE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW/CLOUDS CONTINUE...AS COLD AIR ENTERS THE REGION
FROM THE NNW. ONGOING WIND DIRECTIONS TARGETS MAINLY TVC...TO A
LESSER DEGREE MBL/APN...AND PLN NOT AT ALL. MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL
BE COMMON OUTSIDE OF SHSN. INSIDE OF SHSN...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NW WINDS (GUSTING TO 20-25KT) WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...GUSTY WINDS/BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 101458
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROFFING IS FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND...AND IN
ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON NNW FLOW...WITH TEMPS NEAR ZERO IN THE ST MARYS
VALLEY...AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE IN NW LOWER MI...NEAR AND W OF M-66...AS
REFLECTS A NNW FLOW. LAST OF VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL EXIT NE
LOWER IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ONLY FAR
WESTERN MACKINAC CO IS BEDEVILED BY ANY SHSN.

HAVE HAD TO SHARPLY REDUCE CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELTS...
SKIES ARE ALREADY OPENING UP NICELY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN
BOTH PENINSULAS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED AFTERNOON SHSN IN THE FAR SE.

AS FOR NW LOWER...STEADY AS SHE GOES. WIND FIELDS DON/T BUDGE AT
ALL THRU THIS EVENING...AND BROADER AIRMASS ISN/T GOING TO GET ANY
DRIER THAN IT ALREADY IS. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (NEARLY 6 INCHES) IN WESTERN
LEELANAU AND EASTERN BENZIE COUNTIES. THE REAL QUESTION IS WHAT TO
DO TONIGHT...RE: HEADLINES...WITH CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRING LATER
TODAY. WE SEE A TINY BIT OF BACKING IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...NOT
NEARLY ENOUGH TO REMOVE A SUPERIOR CONNECTION. STILL UNDECIDED AS
TO WHETHER TO EXTEND THE CURRENT HEADLINES AS-IS THRU TONIGHT...OR
TO GO WITH ADVISORIES IN NW LOWER MI TONIGHT. WILL EVALUATE THIS
FURTHER AS THE DAY PROCEEDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...COLD WITH LAKE SNOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUING HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

OVERVIEW: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NOAM...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
CERTAINLY A PATTERN MORE AKIN TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WINTERS AND
CERTAINLY NOT EL-NINO LIKE. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTER LAKES. COLDER AIR
HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW NUDGING INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED AN UPTICK/ORGANIZATION IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
I HAD HOPED IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR WARNINGS. OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT...A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BACK EDGE TO THE BACKGROUND SNOW
IS WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST
END TO THE BACKGROUND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING JUST THE LOCKED IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL
WITH. AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT IS CONCERNED...EXTREME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS
-22C OR COLDER/A DEEP LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER/HIGH
CAPE...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 8K FEET. SUBSIDENCE AND
INCOMING DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
BATTLING THE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
LAYER...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY THROTTLE BACK LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES TO SOME DEGREE. A LOWERING DGZ MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ALTHOUGH I THINK SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND RESULTING FLUFF
FACTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER HEALTHY WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS (I WOULD
REALLY LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS A BIT COLDER BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT REDUCED RATIOS/SMALLER FLAKES). BUT THE OVERALL BOTTOM
LINE...CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NNW LAKE EFFECT FLOW
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY TRIMMING POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA.

ACCUMULATIONS: ARW/NMM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT
SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...UPWARD OF AN INCH WITHIN THE MODELED
MOST PERSISTENT BANDING. CONCERNING TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT PROBABLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
LAKE CONVECTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR. BUT JUST
BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOCKED-IN NNW FLOW/AND LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTED BANDING...I STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES IS REASONABLE IN AND AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY PARTICULAR BAND BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER AN AREA. SHY OF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AS-IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GATHER REPORTS AND FIND OUT
JUST WHERE WE ARE AT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH
FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH +PNA/-EPO
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE DOOR
FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT.
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE POLE PULLS AN UPPER LOW DOWN TO JAMES
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY.  SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  POLAR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH SOME BRUTALLY
COLD THICKNESSES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (SUB-495DM INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  WILL ALSO SEE LARGER SCALE
DOWNWARD FORCING SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF INVERSION HEIGHTS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING TO START THURSDAY MORNING BASICALLY ALONG-WEST OF I-75
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...AND PERHAPS CLIPPING PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST LOWER.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND NOT AS FOCUSED OVER ANY
ONE AREA.  MAY BE ONE ELONGATED BAND WITH AN EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN COUNTIES.  IF SUCH A BAND
WERE TO EXIST THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
WITH TIME...BUT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS BEFORE
MOVING ON ESPECIALLY IF A LAKE INDUCED VORTEX CAN BE GENERATED IN
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. DECENT PROBABILITY FOR SOME
SUN ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CLOUD UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GETTING ADVECTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  A CHILLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THUS SHOULD BE THE ORIENTATION OF CONTINUING LAKE
CONVECTION.  SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY RAISES SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION
HEIGHTS BACK UP TOWARD 700MB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FOCUSED WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND WITH DECENT SNOWFALL RATES.  PERSISTENCE OF
SUCH A BAND IS IN QUESTION...AS IT MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD DEEPER
INTO EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE
FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN WESTERLY BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY AGGREGATE LAKE WARMTH...BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
(LAKE ENHANCED) SNOW.  COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS
WELL...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW TRANSIENT
THIS FEATURE IS.  FOR NOW A FORECAST OF 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO SET UP AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES (850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING).
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING ANTICIPATING WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO A 330-340
DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-LAKE
BAND THAT IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...BUT BY
THIS TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKE SIZES
THAT ARE LESS EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THOUGH 2-4 INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE CENTERED AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BUT SMALLER FLAKES
ARE MORE PRONE TO GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH.
WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT...FALLING
TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HEART OF THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE IMPACTING MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...AS 1044+MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPLITS
AROUND THE UPPER LAKES AS IT BUILDS EAST BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AS COLD AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND.  WARM AIR RETURN FLOW
WILL START LATER SUNDAY ONCE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WINDS CAN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  RETURN OF WARMER AIR
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...OR PERHAPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD SATURDAY...SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS MOST AREAS EXCEPT WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER UNDER
LAKE INFLUENCE.  SOME AREAS (FAR EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHERN LOWER) MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO.  COULD FINALLY BE A PRECIP-
FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
MORE PASSING SYSTEMS.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE DAY...SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. APN/PLN WILL FARE MUCH BETTER. LIGHT BACKGROUND SNOW
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. STILL EXPECT OVERALL
MVFR CIGS TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR
CIGS A BETTER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.

WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH TODAY BUT DIMINISHING
TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...GUSTY WINDS/BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 101123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...COLD WITH LAKE SNOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUING HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

OVERVIEW: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NOAM...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
CERTAINLY A PATTERN MORE AKIN TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WINTERS AND
CERTAINLY NOT EL-NINO LIKE. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTER LAKES. COLDER AIR
HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW NUDGING INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED AN UPTICK/ORGANIZATION IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
I HAD HOPED IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR WARNINGS. OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT...A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BACK EDGE TO THE BACKGROUND SNOW
IS WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST
END TO THE BACKGROUND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING JUST THE LOCKED IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL
WITH. AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT IS CONCERNED...EXTREME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS
-22C OR COLDER/A DEEP LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER/HIGH
CAPE...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 8K FEET. SUBSIDENCE AND
INCOMING DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
BATTLING THE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
LAYER...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY THROTTLE BACK LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES TO SOME DEGREE. A LOWERING DGZ MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ALTHOUGH I THINK SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND RESULTING FLUFF
FACTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER HEALTHY WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS (I WOULD
REALLY LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS A BIT COLDER BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT REDUCED RATIOS/SMALLER FLAKES). BUT THE OVERALL BOTTOM
LINE...CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NNW LAKE EFFECT FLOW
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY TRIMMING POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA.

ACCUMULATIONS: ARW/NMM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT
SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...UPWARD OF AN INCH WITHIN THE MODELED
MOST PERSISTENT BANDING. CONCERNING TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT PROBABLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
LAKE CONVECTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR. BUT JUST
BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOCKED-IN NNW FLOW/AND LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTED BANDING...I STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES IS REASONABLE IN AND AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY PARTICULAR BAND BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER AN AREA. SHY OF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AS-IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GATHER REPORTS AND FIND OUT
JUST WHERE WE ARE AT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH
FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH +PNA/-EPO
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE DOOR
FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT.
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE POLE PULLS AN UPPER LOW DOWN TO JAMES
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY.  SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  POLAR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH SOME BRUTALLY
COLD THICKNESSES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (SUB-495DM INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  WILL ALSO SEE LARGER SCALE
DOWNWARD FORCING SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF INVERSION HEIGHTS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING TO START THURSDAY MORNING BASICALLY ALONG-WEST OF I-75
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...AND PERHAPS CLIPPING PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST LOWER.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND NOT AS FOCUSED OVER ANY
ONE AREA.  MAY BE ONE ELONGATED BAND WITH AN EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN COUNTIES.  IF SUCH A BAND
WERE TO EXIST THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
WITH TIME...BUT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS BEFORE
MOVING ON ESPECIALLY IF A LAKE INDUCED VORTEX CAN BE GENERATED IN
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. DECENT PROBABILITY FOR SOME
SUN ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CLOUD UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GETTING ADVECTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  A CHILLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THUS SHOULD BE THE ORIENTATION OF CONTINUING LAKE
CONVECTION.  SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY RAISES SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION
HEIGHTS BACK UP TOWARD 700MB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FOCUSED WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND WITH DECENT SNOWFALL RATES.  PERSISTENCE OF
SUCH A BAND IS IN QUESTION...AS IT MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD DEEPER
INTO EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE
FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN WESTERLY BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY AGGREGATE LAKE WARMTH...BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
(LAKE ENHANCED) SNOW.  COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS
WELL...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW TRANSIENT
THIS FEATURE IS.  FOR NOW A FORECAST OF 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO SET UP AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES (850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING).
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING ANTICIPATING WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO A 330-340
DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-LAKE
BAND THAT IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...BUT BY
THIS TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKE SIZES
THAT ARE LESS EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THOUGH 2-4 INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE CENTERED AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BUT SMALLER FLAKES
ARE MORE PRONE TO GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH.
WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT...FALLING
TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HEART OF THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE IMPACTING MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...AS 1044+MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPLITS
AROUND THE UPPER LAKES AS IT BUILDS EAST BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AS COLD AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND.  WARM AIR RETURN FLOW
WILL START LATER SUNDAY ONCE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WINDS CAN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  RETURN OF WARMER AIR
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...OR PERHAPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD SATURDAY...SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS MOST AREAS EXCEPT WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER UNDER
LAKE INFLUENCE.  SOME AREAS (FAR EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHERN LOWER) MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO.  COULD FINALLY BE A PRECIP-
FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
MORE PASSING SYSTEMS.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE DAY...SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. APN/PLN WILL FARE MUCH BETTER. LIGHT BACKGROUND SNOW
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. STILL EXPECT OVERALL
MVFR CIGS TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR
CIGS A BETTER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.

WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH TODAY BUT DIMINISHING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...GUSTY WINDS/BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 100906
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...COLD WITH LAKE SNOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUING HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

OVERVIEW: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NOAM...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
CERTAINLY A PATTERN MORE AKIN TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WINTERS AND
CERTAINLY NOT EL-NINO LIKE. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTER LAKES. COLDER AIR
HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW NUDGING INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED AN UPTICK/ORGANIZATION IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
I HAD HOPED IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR WARNINGS. OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT...A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BACK EDGE TO THE BACKGROUND SNOW
IS WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN WEST TO EAST
END TO THE BACKGROUND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING JUST THE LOCKED IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL
WITH. AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT IS CONCERNED...EXTREME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS
-22C OR COLDER/A DEEP LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER/HIGH
CAPE...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 8K FEET. SUBSIDENCE AND
INCOMING DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
BATTLING THE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
LAYER...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY THROTTLE BACK LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES TO SOME DEGREE. A LOWERING DGZ MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ALTHOUGH I THINK SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND RESULTING FLUFF
FACTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER HEALTHY WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS (I WOULD
REALLY LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS A BIT COLDER BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT REDUCED RATIOS/SMALLER FLAKES). BUT THE OVERALL BOTTOM
LINE...CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NNW LAKE EFFECT FLOW
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY TRIMMING POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA.

ACCUMULATIONS: ARW/NMM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT
SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...UPWARD OF AN INCH WITHIN THE MODELED
MOST PERSISTENT BANDING. CONCERNING TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT PROBABLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
LAKE CONVECTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR. BUT JUST
BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOCKED-IN NNW FLOW/AND LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTED BANDING...I STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES IS REASONABLE IN AND AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY PARTICULAR BAND BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER AN AREA. SHY OF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AS-IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GATHER REPORTS AND FIND OUT
JUST WHERE WE ARE AT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH
FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH +PNA/-EPO
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE DOOR
FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT.
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE POLE PULLS AN UPPER LOW DOWN TO JAMES
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY.  SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  POLAR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH SOME BRUTALLY
COLD THICKNESSES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (SUB-495DM INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  WILL ALSO SEE LARGER SCALE
DOWNWARD FORCING SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF INVERSION HEIGHTS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING TO START THURSDAY MORNING BASICALLY ALONG-WEST OF I-75
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...AND PERHAPS CLIPPING PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST LOWER.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND NOT AS FOCUSED OVER ANY
ONE AREA.  MAY BE ONE ELONGATED BAND WITH AN EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN COUNTIES.  IF SUCH A BAND
WERE TO EXIST THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
WITH TIME...BUT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS BEFORE
MOVING ON ESPECIALLY IF A LAKE INDUCED VORTEX CAN BE GENERATED IN
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. DECENT PROBABILITY FOR SOME
SUN ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CLOUD UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GETTING ADVECTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  A CHILLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THUS SHOULD BE THE ORIENTATION OF CONTINUING LAKE
CONVECTION.  SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY RAISES SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION
HEIGHTS BACK UP TOWARD 700MB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FOCUSED WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND WITH DECENT SNOWFALL RATES.  PERSISTENCE OF
SUCH A BAND IS IN QUESTION...AS IT MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD DEEPER
INTO EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE
FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN WESTERLY BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY AGGREGATE LAKE WARMTH...BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
(LAKE ENHANCED) SNOW.  COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS
WELL...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW TRANSIENT
THIS FEATURE IS.  FOR NOW A FORECAST OF 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO SET UP AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES (850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING).
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING ANTICIPATING WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO A 330-340
DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-LAKE
BAND THAT IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...BUT BY
THIS TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKE SIZES
THAT ARE LESS EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THOUGH 2-4 INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE CENTERED AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BUT SMALLER FLAKES
ARE MORE PRONE TO GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH.
WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT...FALLING
TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HEART OF THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE IMPACTING MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...AS 1044+MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPLITS
AROUND THE UPPER LAKES AS IT BUILDS EAST BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AS COLD AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND.  WARM AIR RETURN FLOW
WILL START LATER SUNDAY ONCE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WINDS CAN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  RETURN OF WARMER AIR
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...OR PERHAPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD SATURDAY...SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS MOST AREAS EXCEPT WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER UNDER
LAKE INFLUENCE.  SOME AREAS (FAR EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHERN LOWER) MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO.  COULD FINALLY BE A PRECIP-
FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
MORE PASSING SYSTEMS.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. APN/PLN
WILL FARE MUCH BETTER. APN WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL TREND TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLN MAY
ACTUALLY GET A BREAK OVERNIGHT AND A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THERE WILL BE MVFR AS WELL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...GUSTY WINDS/BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 100532
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1232 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...999 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MANITOBA CANADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COMING
TOGETHER OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THESE BANDS HAVE
BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN
EFFECT.

SO WE ARE FINALLY SEEING THE TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION AMPING UP OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY. WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE (TARGETING THE DGZ...-12 TO -18 C) SOME
SPOTS LOOK TO GET POUNDED WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO EVER SO SLOWLY VEER INTO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND
LOOK TO REMAIN LOCKED RIGHT ABOUT THERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW COMING TO AN END HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH ONLY AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SCRAPING PORTIONS
OF PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LOOK GOOD
OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTS IN THE HEADLINED COUNTIES COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT WILL
ENCOUNTER COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SMALLER SNOW FLAKE SIZES
(WHICH HAVE A HARDER TIME STACKING UP BUT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES) AS WELL AS A MODERATE DROP OFF IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT. TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. APN/PLN
WILL FARE MUCH BETTER. APN WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL TREND TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLN MAY
ACTUALLY GET A BREAK OVERNIGHT AND A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THERE WILL BE MVFR AS WELL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 100532
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1232 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...999 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MANITOBA CANADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COMING
TOGETHER OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THESE BANDS HAVE
BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN
EFFECT.

SO WE ARE FINALLY SEEING THE TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION AMPING UP OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY. WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE (TARGETING THE DGZ...-12 TO -18 C) SOME
SPOTS LOOK TO GET POUNDED WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO EVER SO SLOWLY VEER INTO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND
LOOK TO REMAIN LOCKED RIGHT ABOUT THERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW COMING TO AN END HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH ONLY AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SCRAPING PORTIONS
OF PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LOOK GOOD
OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTS IN THE HEADLINED COUNTIES COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT WILL
ENCOUNTER COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SMALLER SNOW FLAKE SIZES
(WHICH HAVE A HARDER TIME STACKING UP BUT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES) AS WELL AS A MODERATE DROP OFF IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT. TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. APN/PLN
WILL FARE MUCH BETTER. APN WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL TREND TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLN MAY
ACTUALLY GET A BREAK OVERNIGHT AND A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THERE WILL BE MVFR AS WELL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 100532
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1232 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...999 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MANITOBA CANADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COMING
TOGETHER OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THESE BANDS HAVE
BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN
EFFECT.

SO WE ARE FINALLY SEEING THE TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION AMPING UP OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY. WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE (TARGETING THE DGZ...-12 TO -18 C) SOME
SPOTS LOOK TO GET POUNDED WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO EVER SO SLOWLY VEER INTO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND
LOOK TO REMAIN LOCKED RIGHT ABOUT THERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW COMING TO AN END HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH ONLY AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SCRAPING PORTIONS
OF PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LOOK GOOD
OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTS IN THE HEADLINED COUNTIES COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT WILL
ENCOUNTER COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SMALLER SNOW FLAKE SIZES
(WHICH HAVE A HARDER TIME STACKING UP BUT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES) AS WELL AS A MODERATE DROP OFF IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PRESQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT. TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE LOCATIONS. APN/PLN
WILL FARE MUCH BETTER. APN WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL TREND TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLN MAY
ACTUALLY GET A BREAK OVERNIGHT AND A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. BUT
THE OVERALL TREND THERE WILL BE MVFR AS WELL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
VFR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 100237
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP OF INTEREST...999 MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MANITOBA CANADA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COMING
TOGETHER OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. THESE BANDS HAVE
BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE DETAILS OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN
EFFECT.

SO WE ARE FINALLY SEEING THE TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES AWAY TO THE EAST AND
COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION AMPING UP OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY. WITH DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE (TARGETING THE DGZ...-12 TO -18 C) SOME
SPOTS LOOK TO GET POUNDED WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO EVER SO SLOWLY VEER INTO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND
LOOK TO REMAIN LOCKED RIGHT ABOUT THERE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW COMING TO AN END HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN NORTHEAST LOWER WITH ONLY AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SCRAPING PORTIONS
OF PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LOOK GOOD
OVERNIGHT. SOME SPOTS IN THE HEADLINED COUNTIES COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT WILL
ENCOUNTER COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO SMALLER SNOW FLAKE SIZES
(WHICH HAVE A HARDER TIME STACKING UP BUT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES) AS WELL AS A MODERATE DROP OFF IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PREQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT.  TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. TVC/MBL WILL SEE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...WITH EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...BUT WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS (THOUGH LOW END VFR IS
POSSIBLE) AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS
AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
     027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 100003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PREQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT.  TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. TVC/MBL WILL SEE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...WITH EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...BUT WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS (THOUGH LOW END VFR IS
POSSIBLE) AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS
AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
     027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     024-030-036-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 100003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PREQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT.  TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. TVC/MBL WILL SEE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...WITH EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...BUT WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS (THOUGH LOW END VFR IS
POSSIBLE) AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS
AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
     027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     024-030-036-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 100003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PREQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT.  TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILITIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS. WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. TVC/MBL WILL SEE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...WITH EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...BUT WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS (THOUGH LOW END VFR IS
POSSIBLE) AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KTS
AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
     027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     024-030-036-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 092028
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
328 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
WITH SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  INVERTED TROUGH/SFC AXIS
EXTENDS UP ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT TODAY.  CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC/ENHANCED SNOW TO LAKE EFFECT...WITH THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING UNDER STEADY COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND THEY ARE FINALLY GETTING COLD ENOUGH /SUFFICIENT
DELTA T/ TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ROBUST LAKE RESPONSE.  BEGINNING TO
SEE SIGNS OF THIS ON THE RADAR OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER...AS
LINGERING SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH AN
EVER INCREASING LAKE CONTRIBUTION.  THE END RESULT IS SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS EAST.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT FOCUS TOWARD THE US-131
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...WITH BEST ASCENT PEGGED WITHIN THE DGZ. ADD IN A NICE
LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND SOME HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWSHOWERS/BANDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN
TOWARD MANISTEE/CADILLAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. WITH SNOW RATIO/S ON THE ORDER
OF 20:1 /DRY SNOW/ AND WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH...POOR VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...THE
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST THIS EVNEING WITH SOME
N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS FROM PREQUE ISLE
TO HARRISVILLE OVERNIGHT.  TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR...SNOWSHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
M-123.

HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
IN TACT.  I DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WIDESPREAD WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.  BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS /LOW
VISIBILTIES/ WILL KEEP THE WARNING AS IS.  WILL TRIM THE ADVISORY
ENDING TIME ON THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE TO MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY
BE TO LONG DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...COLD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING.

500MB TROF WILL BE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS
SOME RELAXATION IN THAT TROFFING IN THE LAKES REGION CENTERED ON THU
NIGHT...ONLY FOR A CLOSED LOW OR ARCTIC ORIGIN TO DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA ON FRI-SAT. THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY BE ABSENT THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. SO DON/T EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT TO RAGE TO THE DEGREE IT MIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW/TEMP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WED...DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENTERING NW LOWER MI AND WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES TO START. THE WAVE AXIS MARKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE EXITING NE LOWER MI AT 18Z.
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DESCENT AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE
6K FT BEHIND THE WAVE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
ABUNDANT...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER MINUS 20S. A NNW FETCH
REMAINS LOCKED IN...AND THOSE SNOWBELTS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SHSN. HOWEVER...THE DRYING MID-LEVELS AND SHRINKING DGZ
(2500FT AND BELOW) WILL LIMIT ACCUMS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL GO WITH 2-
4 INCH ACCUMS IN NW LOWER... AND EASTERN PRESQUE ISLE/NE ALPENA COS.
WILL MENTION BLSN IN THESE AREAS...WINDS AREN/T TERRIBLY STRONG
(GUSTING TO 25-30MPH IN EXPOSED LOCALES)...BUT DRY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE PRONE TO BLOWING.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELTS...THE LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERAL
COLD BUT DRY NATURE OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THAT WON/T HELP TEMPS MUCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

WED NIGHT/THU...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MI WED
NIGHT...WHILE SOME SHALLOW 500MB RIDGING ARRIVES ON NW FLOW THU. ALL
TOLD...MINIMAL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE TO ASSIST LAKE EFFECT. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL DECAY THU AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE
WARMER GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE THE 1000-850MB WINDS BACK DECIDEDLY
THEN...FROM NNW (STILL) TO START THE DAY...TO ALMOST W BY THE END.
THIS WILL BE A DISRUPTING INFLUENCE TO ONGOING LAKE EFFECT...AND
ULTIMATELY SHORTENS THE LAKE FETCH DRASTICALLY. BUT...SLIGHT WARM
ADVECTION (850MB TEMPS CLIMB A TOUCH WARMER THAN -20C) PUTS US IN A
BETTER SPOT IN REGARDS TO A USABLE DGZ. WILL KEEP LES IN THE NNW
SNOWBELTS WED NIGHT...THEN PUSH THEM INLAND/EASTWARD THU. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE...ANOTHER 2-4 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WED NIGHT IN NW
LOWER. LESSER AMOUNTS THU (1-3)...WITH THE MAX AMOUNTS E OF GD TRAV
BAY AND IN WESTERN CHIP.

MIN TEMPS FROM THE LOWER TEENS (NW LOWER COAST) TO -5F (ST MARYS
VALLEY). MAX TEMPS TEENS.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS
TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW NO
MAJOR IMPACT. PRIMARY IMPACT IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM
HUDSON BAY TO CENTRAL QUEBEC. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN LAKES IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL THUS VEER AGAIN TO THE
NW...WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF (STRONGER) COLD ADVECTION. HEALTHY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SNOWBELTS MIGRATING
WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS. NOT SEEING /LARGE/ ACCUMS...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME...WITH BRISK WINDS FRIDAY RETURNING BLSN AS WELL.

MIN TEMPS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS 10 TO 20F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SET TO VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SINGLE -5 TO -10 F ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AS YOU HEAD NEAR THE BIG
LAKES. THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM +0-5 F AREA-
WIDE...ALTHOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE ZERO MARK. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
CERTAINLY RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING -20 TO -25 F OR
LOWER...PERHAPS WARRANTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. ANOTHER BELOW ZERO NIGHT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH RELAXING WINDS...COULD BE
EASILY DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS.
SOME MODERATING SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE SO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID-20S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...N/NNW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE...NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE HURON COAST. NOT EXPECTING VERY BIG SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE AS SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND GUSTY
WINDS CREATE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION...AS IT STANDS
NOW...EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY
BE CLOSE. WINDS DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID ICE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-
     027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ018-
     024-030-036-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 091719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 091719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 091719
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWSHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN
EARNEST OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL
SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER
TOWARD THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER
20KTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 091548
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1048 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOT GOING ON THIS MORNING WITH RETROGRADING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL BACKED NW OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF ENHANCEMENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SEEDS
DEVELOPING LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WINDS
WILL VEER MORE N-NW WITH DELTA T/S CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
ALONG/WEST OF US-131 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND WEST OF M-123 IN
EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG
THE LAKE HURON COAST ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
SHIELD. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

HEADLINES...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES. THE WARNING
LIKELY GOES INTO EFFECT A BIT EARLY BUT SINCE THERE WILL BE SNOW
IN THE AIR AND GUSTY WINDS...HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WON/T BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ALSO
CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST...WHERE A FEW ADDITIONAL
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TERMINAL SITES WILL REMAIN LARGELY MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
IMPACTING MAINLY APN. BUT SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN EARNEST OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL SEE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 091142
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
642 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

TERMINAL SITES WILL REMAIN LARGELY MVFR THIS MORNING WITH SNOW
IMPACTING MAINLY APN. BUT SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
GET THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING IN EARNEST OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TVC/MBL WILL SEE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. APN/PLN SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS FOCUS FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SHIFTS OVER TOWARD
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 090848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 090848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 090848
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
STARTING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OVERVIEW: CLOSED UPPER LOW REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING WITH THE ATTENDING DEEPENING SFC LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER FAR SRN LAKE HURON/FAR SRN ONTARIO. INVERTED SFC TROUGH/
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS BACK UP THROUGH LAKE HURON AND ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THAT...ALONG WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS ALSO STRETCHING DOWN THE NE LOWER MICHIGAN HURON
SHORELINE HAS LEAD TO EXPANDING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL BACKING INTO NE
LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33 THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY INCREASING N/NW FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD ENOUGH
TO FINALLY GIN UP THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT
MACHINE...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW ON RADAR OVER
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY GOING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND EAST OF M-33...WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AND
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING MODEST SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ROGERS CITY THROUGH ALPENA TO OSCODA HAVE BEEN DOWN
AROUND A MILE OR TWO IN VSBY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
RADAR/SFC OBS SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT
SO FAR. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TRANSLATES TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...BOLSTERED BY SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AROUND
PRESQUE ISLE. WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOWER PENINSULA...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WHERE H8 TEMPS START
FROM AROUND -10C THIS MORNING AND END UP COLDER THAN -20C BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO REMAIN ON
THE MORE MODEST SIDE TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES ANTICIPATED. BUT
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND UPTICK IN QG-ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH TOWARD
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE
SNOWS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEP SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION CENTERED SQUARELY
THROUGH THE -12C TO -18C DGZ. ADD TO THAT A NICE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP
AND I FULLY EXPECT SOME RATHER VIGOROUS LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT AREAS
FROM AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY DOWN THROUGH MANISTEE/CADILLAC...WITH
ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.

HEADLINES...WITH ANTICIPATED HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...WARNING HEADLINES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY APPEAR THE WAY TO GO FOR
THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HAVE ALSO PADDED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WARNING (U.S. 131 CORRIDOR) WITH ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SINCE SOME OF THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THOSE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL SHOULD TAIL OFF NICELY
FURTHER DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHICH HAS BEEN COORDINATED
AND LINES UP WELL WITH ONGOING GRR ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATTERN BECOMES LOCKED
IN PLACE BY STOUT WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AXIS. COMBINE THE ABOVE WITH
STILL WIDE-OPEN GREAT LAKES...AND THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE FAMOUS
GREAT LAKES SNOW BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COLLABORATION WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON HEADLINE MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.

DETAILS: UNSETTLED TO START FOR SURE...WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT NICE UPTICK IN QG SUPPORT WEDNESDAY LIKELY
KEEPING AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. FAR BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN THOSE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIMES...WITH PLENTY OF OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION RESULTING IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS
LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. ONLY POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO HEAVY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW (PERHAPS FALLING BELOW CLOUD
BASE?) DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AS H8 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BELOW
-20C. NOW...WHILE THOSE SMALL FLAKES MAY HINDER ACCUMULATION
SOME...THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH.
MAIN TARGET AREAS STILL APPEARS BOUNDED BY AN AREA WEST OF US-131
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION. SECONDARY AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE...WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHORELINE PARALLEL BAND
IMPACTING THAT AREA AT TIMES. AS FOR EASTERN UPPER...TRAJECTORIES
LOOK JUST A TOUCH TOO NORTHERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. ALL
TOLD...COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THOSE FAVORED
AREAS...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

LAKE PROCESSES TREND TO ONE OF A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT REGIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ALL SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION IS LOST
AND SIMPLE MAGNITUDE OF LAKE/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DRIVES
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. INTENSITY SHOULD COME DOWN SOME
DURING THIS TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF NNW WINDS
RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARGUES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS (ONE TO TWO INCHES). WINDS QUICKLY BACK AROUND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG ARCTIC WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP FAN SNOW SHOWERS OUT
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL OF LIMITED INTENSITY. POLAR PLUNGE BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...LIKELY BRINGING A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE SNOWS VIA ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR
ONE BRUTALLY COLD END OF THE WEEK/START TO THE WEEKEND (SEE BELOW).

AS FOR HEADLINES...PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AND COLD IT WILL BE AS SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR DESCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THERMAL PROGS ONLY GET COLDER
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE GET FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THROUGH SIMPLE CAA PROCESSES WE SHOULD SEE LOWS
DIPPING WELL BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS. AND...RECOVERY IS
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY AS THOSE NORTH WINDS FAVOR MINIMAL LAKE
MODIFICATION. H8 TEMPS PUSHING THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S EASILY
SUPPORTS THE DOWNWARD TREND SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN GUIDANCE
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE PARTS
OF EASTERN EAST UPPER MICHIGAN (THE SOO/PICKFORD...AND OTHERS) MAY
NOT EVEN GET THERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER...WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WE COULD EASILY BE LOOKING AT OUR
FIRST WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS WINTER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED!

GONNA BE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES
GO. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING...AND
REMAINING LIGHT RIGHT UNTIL MORNING. CLOUD TRENDS THE FAR TOUGHER
ISSUE...WITH SHALLOW LAKE PROCESSES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE LAKE-DRIVEN CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. IF WE CAN CLEAR
OUT...WOULD FULLY EXPECT INTERIOR AREAS TO DROP WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS...IF NOT EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PUSH EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY HELPING THE MODERATING CAUSE.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY WILL REACH TO JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS
BY MONDAY.

AS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LAKE SNOWS A GIVEN IN
RAPIDLY VEERING WIND FIELDS TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT....WITH NORTH FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE
SOME IMPACTS THROUGH LOW VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY THAT VEERING WIND FIELD AND SMALL
FLAKE SIZE. CONFIDENCE REALLY FALLS APART THEREAFTER...WITH AT LEAST
SOME HINTS OF ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING WAVES BRINGING SOME SNOW AT
TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL CHANGE FOR SURE...AS WILL THEIR
PLACEMENT. A SIMPLE CONSENSUS BLEND LOW CHANCE POP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. GUSTS ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE. WINDS
DIMINISH HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID ICE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ019-021-027-033.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ018-024-
     030-036.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 090456
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING PERIODS OF SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR...THOUGH MBL HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CIGS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. VSBYS WILL BE IN SIMILAR CATEGORIES
AS THE CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT MBL AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT AT TVC AND APN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 090253
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
953 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

KIND OF A CHAOTIC WEATHER PATTERN WITH VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. THE 1000
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. APX RADAR
SHOWED THAT ACTIVITY WAS SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR BUT THAT RETURNS
WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.
MEANWHILE...STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO GET THE GREAT LAKES
INVOLVED WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT (APX 09/00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURE -6.5
C)...THOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THAT LAKE ANYWAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTICK IN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER TWO INCHES (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKES).
REMAINING MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 082357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 082357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 082357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
657 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY YIELDING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH...LIKELY YIELDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW AT TVC AND
MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL TUESDAY YIELDING
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END IFR/LOW
END MVFR. VSBYS WILL BE THE SAME AS CIGS BUT POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES AT TVC AND MBL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SWR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 082111
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIMITED PCPN RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MICHIGAN
CURRENTLY...AS SFC AND UPPER LVL FEATURES REMAIN CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER NRN MI. NRN MI CONTINUES TO SERVE AS THE PIVOT POINT FOR WHICH
ALL REGIONAL CLOUDS AND PCPN SPIN AROUND. HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THESE SYSTEMS SLOWLY EXIT EAST OF THE LAKES.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LVL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING SFC SYSTEM. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW CONVERGENCE INCREASING
SLOWLY OVER NRN MI OVERNIGHT...ACRS ERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER
BTWN 00Z TUES AND 06Z TUESDAY...THEN AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID
LVL MSTR ACRS NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
60PCT. THIS LIMITED MSTR COMBINED WITH SLOWLY DEVELOPING DYNAMICS
THIS EVENING WILL HINDER PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA INITIALLY.

LAKE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS 850MB TEMPS STRUGGLE TO COOL BELOW -10C INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850M TEMPS BETWEEN -6C AND -8C THIS EVENING...WILL
SLOWLY COOL TO AROUND -12C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS LATE AS 12Z
TUESDAY. THEREFORE ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
FROM LAKE EFFECT...WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
UNDER 3KT AND SLOWLY ORGANIZING SFC-850MB NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE OFFING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW/BLOWING SNOW STARTING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
(+PNA/-EPO TELECONNECTION) IS OPENING THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SPILL
OUT OF THE POLAR REGIONS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK.  UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY DIET OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RE-ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.  AS THIS SECONDARY
LOW PULLS AWAY WINDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE ACROSS MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LAKE-INDUCED TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER THERMAL
TROUGH WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO THE 500DM VICINITY.  FLOW
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BIGGER PUSH OF FRIGID AIR
THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF COLD AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
BACK TO THE WEST AND ACROSS MICHIGAN.  SO THERE WILL BE A BACKGROUND
LIGHT SNOW COMPONENT ADDING ON TO WHAT OUGHT TO BE AN INCREASE LAKE
COMPONENT AS THE DAY GOES ON ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE
MICHIGAN IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AXIS OVER LAKE HURON...AND WHILE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...IT CERTAINLY
WON`T HURT THE CAUSE IN TERMS OF ENHANCING QPF POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.  SNOW RATIOS LIKELY TO BE LOWER FARTHER EAST...BUT
THINK 2-3/2-4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE HURON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THE GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY VICINITY WHERE LAKE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE MORE.  INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WINDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN LIKELY GUSTING 30+MPH.  LAKE
COMPONENT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN UPPER NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE THE
BRIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPROVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY/RAISE INVERSION
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SYNOPTIC COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY STILL
BE IN PLAY TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHWEST LOWER ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW.  WEST OF THE US-131
CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT WILL PROBABLY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE
SNOWFALL...HOW MUCH AND WHERE EXACTLY WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
BANDING BUT THINK 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
SNOW MORE LIKELY FOR LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE COUNTIES. BLOWING/
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...SO ANTICIPATING
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A "SNEAKY" FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER FAR
NORTHEAST LOWER BETWEEN CHEBOYGAN AND ALPENA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR FOR THIS EVENT SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C/SUB-510DM
THICKNESS VALUES.  FAIRLY STEADY STATE NORTHWEST WINDS (330-340 MEAN
FLOW) WILL FOCUS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHWEST LOWER...FAR WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC
COUNTIES...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES OFF LAKE HURON...WHICH CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS CAN FOCUS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES...PREFER THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LEELANAU-GRAND
TRAVERSE-BENZIE-MANISTEE-WEXFORD COUNTIES...WITH THE IDEA THAT THESE
COUNTIES MAY EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO JUST A LONG-PERIOD ADVISORY.
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW MAY WARRANT
A WARNING.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS DOESN`T EXACTLY MATCH UP WITH
GRR AT THIS POINT BUT THIS HAS BEEN COORDINATED SINCE IT IS MORE
LIKELY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH. ALSO
CONSIDERED HOISTING A WATCH FOR PRESQUE ISLE-ALPENA COUNTIES...
SUSPECT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT THAT POTENTIAL
MAY HINGE ON LAKE ENHANCED/SYNOPTIC EVENT ON THE FRONT END.

THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...PROBABLY WITH
DIMINISHING INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN
AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR IS SET TO ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY
NIGHT...RATHER LIGHT WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING...BUT WITH ROUGHLY -20C H8 AIR....EXPECTING FLAKE SIZE TO
BE FAIRLY SMALL WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT SET TO DROP IN EVEN COLDER H8 AIR (-24 TO-27 C)...BUT
WILL TARGET MORE NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS AS WINDS BACK TO
JUST WEST OF NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WITH A NON-EXISTENT DGZ...SMALL FLAKE SIZE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE...KEEPING OVERALL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR MID-FEBRUARY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. H8 TEMPS
BEGIN TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO EVENTUALLY TAPER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT PREVENT ANY
REAL CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL UNFOLD.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD MENTIONED ABOVE...IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE FALLING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
NEAR ZERO TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPROACHING
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SFC OBS AND RADAR DATA SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS NRN
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SFC
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY IN SNOW AFT 09Z
TUESDAY...AS CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVR NRN MI TAF SITES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NRN
LAKES ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH HAD BEEN
ANCHORED OVERHEAD...BEGINS TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHWEST AROUND 15KTS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SWR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SWR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 081756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1256 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINING
BASICALLY PCPN FREE...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN CENTERED RIGHT
OVER NRN MI THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA SPINNING AROUND NRN MI AND CONFINED TO
WISCONSIN...WRN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE THUMB. HOWEVER EXPECT PCPN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC AND UPPER
LOWS PUSH EAST OF THE REGION.

VIS SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NRN MI...WHILE OVC LOW CLOUD DECK CONTS TO SPIN AROUND THE
PIVOT POINT OF NRN MI THIS MORNING. THESE BREAKS AND SOME SUN HAVE
HELPED CLEAR UP FOG AND VSBY ACROSS NRN MI.

OVERALL CURRENT FCST TREND IS IN LINE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED YET THIS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SFC OBS AND RADAR DATA SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS NRN
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SFC
LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY IN SNOW AFT 09Z
TUESDAY...AS CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS OVR NRN MI TAF SITES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NRN
LAKES ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 081504
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1004 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINING
BASICALLY PCPN FREE...AS SFC AND UPPER LOWS REMAIN CENTERED RIGHT
OVER NRN MI THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA SPINNING AROUND NRN MI AND CONFINED TO
WISCONSIN...WRN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE THUMB. HOWEVER EXPECT PCPN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC AND UPPER
LOWS PUSH EAST OF THE REGION.

VIS SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NRN MI...WHILE OVC LOW CLOUD DECK CONTS TO SPIN AROUND THE
PIVOT POINT OF NRN MI THIS MORNING. THESE BREAKS AND SOME SUN HAVE
HELPED CLEAR UP FOG AND VSBY ACROSS NRN MI.

OVERALL CURRENT FCST TREND IS IN LINE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
EXPECTED YET THIS MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 081138
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 081138
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 081138
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT PLN AND PERHAPS APN
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL FILL IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THAT COLDER
AIR SLIPS DOWN OVER A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT TVC/MBL/APN.

WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 080951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
451 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

SKIES ARE VFR...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF MVFR DEVELOPMENT
EVEN FURTHER. STILL BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR AS THERE IS SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT THAT OUGHT TO MORE EFFICIENTLY COOL THE BL RESULTING IN
LOWER CIGS. RELUCTANTLY KEPT MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THE BL MAY NOT BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR IFR
CIGS...MUCH LESS AREAS OF DRIZZLE. COULD HOWEVER SEE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN. CHANCE IS STILL
LOW RIGHT NOW...AND WILL STILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 080915
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL TODAY BUT TURNING COLDER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW CENTERS
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NOTED OVER SRN ILLINOIS ADVANCING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT HAS NOSED UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WE/VE ACTUALLY SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLEARING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE FORCING
ROTATING UP THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P. IS
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. BUT OTHERWISE...WE HAVE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT OF A CONVOLUTED AND TRICKY FORECAST.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MEANDER DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAKES
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FIXED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENDING SFC LOW GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE FAR SRN ONTARIO
REGION (JUST EAST OF DETROIT) WITH AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EVENTUALLY TIGHTENING BACK UP THROUGH NRN LAKE HURON AND INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO WE ULTIMATELY FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE
BACKSIDE/DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON...GETTING
SQUEEZED BY COLDER AIR (AND INCREASING LAKE EFFECT) NUDGING IN
FROM THE WEST AND PRECIP TRYING TO BACK INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN.

TODAY...FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH. WE WILL SEE SOME
NUISANCE LIGHT PRECIP MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY PRECIP STARTING TO CLOSE IN ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL START OUT WITH SOME SUN THIS MORNING. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY FILL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
IN FACT...WOULDN/T BE TO SHOCKED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TRY TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS VERY MARGINAL.

TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW/COLDER AIR NUDGING IN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ON THE HURON SIDE...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO "FILL-IN" ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY-CATEGORICAL RANGE
FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE FOCUS IN THE SNOW BELTS AND ALONG THE LAKE
HURON COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL WE GET
INTO TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER AIR/BETTER LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: COLDER WEATHER REGIME ABOUT
TO MAKE IT PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS...COURTESY OF
DIGGING AND DIVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL OPEN UP A CLEAR
AVENUE FOR MODIFIED POLAR AIR TO DIVE SOUTH...LOOKING TO BRING THE
COLDEST AIR YET THIS WINTER SEASON BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE OTHER ISSUE...WITH THAT TROUGHING/COLDER AIR WORKING TOGETHER
TO DRIVE A RATHER PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW
EVOLUTION/AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: WHOLE SHORT TERM PERIOD DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS IN AN INCREASINGLY COLD ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGHING EVER
SO SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. LAKE CONTRIBUTION IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY BE MUTED TUESDAY MORNING VIA A VERY
MARGINAL OVER-WATER THERMAL REGIME. THAT ALL CHANGES BY LATER
TUESDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS INVERSION LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY COOL...DROPPING TO SUB -20C LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY. STILL APPEARS PRIME TIME FOR GOOD LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL FOCUS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS LAKE
INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER CENTERS ITSELF IN THE DGZ...ALL-THE-WHILE
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION IS MAINTAINED. GRADUAL THINNING
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASINGLY TOO COLD THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(DGZ BECOMES CENTERED LOWER IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER) SHOULD BRING
SNOW INTENSITY DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PER WIND FIELDS
(THAT HAVE WAVERED VERY LITTLE)...IT STILL APPEARS MAIN TARGET AREA
WILL BE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ONLY WORSEN CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...AS WILL THOSE
INCREASINGLY SMALL FLAKE SIZES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
FAVORED SNOW BELTS MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. SOME PROGS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DRIVING SNOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WESTWARD RUNNING COLD CONVEYOR BELT
ON NORTH SIDE OF LAKE HURON CENTERED SURFACE LOW. OTHERS NOT NEARLY
AS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BETTER SYNOPTIC SNOW DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR
EAST. TO TOUCH TO CALL FOR NOW...BUT GIVEN SIMPLE PERSISTENCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...FEEL MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TOUCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...DOWNWARD THEY WILL GO! HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN "RELATIVELY" MILD...WITH READINGS TOPPING SPECIFIC
NORMAL VALUES BY A FEW DEGREES. CAA ENDS ALL THAT HEADING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STUCK IN THE TEENS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADD IN THOSE FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...
AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD!!! THAT ABOUT SUMS UP
THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MAINTENANCE OF LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LAKE SNOWS IN A GRADUALLY
BACKING LOWER LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT...WITH NO
SYNOPTIC FORCING OR MOISTURE. SUB -20C H8 TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER SNOW...GREAT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES BUT
HARD TO ACCUMULATE. ABOVE WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
CHECK...LIKELY NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO.

REAL COLD STUFF ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. BACK EDGE OF THIS WAVE DIVES
OVERHEAD...EASILY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON...WITH
NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR H8 TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEGATIVE MID
20C TERRITORY (EVEN A FEW DEGREES COLDER?). ACTUALLY THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MORNING READINGS IN THE
TEENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REMARKABLY COLD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO
(ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT ALL). COLDEST ANOMALIES PASS EAST
BY SUNDAY...BRING SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS.

LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE...INITIALLY TARGETING NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS
FRIDAY...WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO MORE
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. COMPLETE LOSS OF DGZ
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO A MINIMUM...BUT ONCE AGAIN SMALL FLAKE
SIZE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIMITED VISIBILITY AND SOME HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

SKIES ARE VFR...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF MVFR DEVELOPMENT
EVEN FURTHER. STILL BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR AS THERE IS SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT THAT OUGHT TO MORE EFFICIENTLY COOL THE BL RESULTING IN
LOWER CIGS. RELUCTANTLY KEPT MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THE BL MAY NOT BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR IFR
CIGS...MUCH LESS AREAS OF DRIZZLE. COULD HOWEVER SEE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN. CHANCE IS STILL
LOW RIGHT NOW...AND WILL STILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT WINDS/WAVES TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED AND MAY HOIST HEADLINES WITH THE 5 AM
FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...ADAM





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