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000
FXUS63 KAPX 040222
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THRU OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
DRIVEN BY DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY ISOLD
THUNDER THAT DEVELOPED DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HAS
ENDED...AND IS UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HAVE REMOVED ISOLD THUNDER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST...BUT LEFT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT
12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. PRETTY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MASS OF CLOUDS IN UPPER COLD POOL WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT...SO
COULD BE A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY.

(8/4)TUESDAY...MODELS PEG ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, TO BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA (BASED ON
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO +5C ON THE GFS AND +7C ON THE ECMWF. THE WATER
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE +20C, SO WE HAVE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.

NOW FOR THE WATERSPOUTS...AM HIGHLY UNDERWHELMED BY THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA
TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR
SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO. THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE ABOUT
13C. SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A 1 OR 2 ON
THE SWI BY SZILAGYI. SO IT`S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY REPORTS.

(8/5)WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD AT 500 MB AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 8C BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL, SORT OF. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER A SFC LOW MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF HAS IT IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT 12Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MOVING OUT OF THE IOWA WITH RAIN GETTING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. WILL
LEAVE THE NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

(8/6)THURSDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE LOW ALONG THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA BOARDER WITH THE RAIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF M-
32. THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
TO W UPPER. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF H5 RIDGING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES...AS WELL AS OUR PRECIP CHANCES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING DRIVEN BY DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE
SPOTTY AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH THRU 04-06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY TO REFORM ON TUESDAY AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE REGION. OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW WINDS AOB 10 KTS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OTHER THAN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS...NOT MUCH GOING ON
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND WARM LAKES...GETTING CLOSE TO LAKE-AIR
DELTA THRESHOLDS FOR WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT. COLDEST AIR GOES OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-
     348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040222
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THRU OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING...
DRIVEN BY DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY ISOLD
THUNDER THAT DEVELOPED DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HAS
ENDED...AND IS UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HAVE REMOVED ISOLD THUNDER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST...BUT LEFT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT
12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. PRETTY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MASS OF CLOUDS IN UPPER COLD POOL WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT...SO
COULD BE A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY.

(8/4)TUESDAY...MODELS PEG ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, TO BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA (BASED ON
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO +5C ON THE GFS AND +7C ON THE ECMWF. THE WATER
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE +20C, SO WE HAVE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.

NOW FOR THE WATERSPOUTS...AM HIGHLY UNDERWHELMED BY THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA
TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR
SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO. THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE ABOUT
13C. SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A 1 OR 2 ON
THE SWI BY SZILAGYI. SO IT`S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY REPORTS.

(8/5)WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD AT 500 MB AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 8C BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL, SORT OF. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER A SFC LOW MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF HAS IT IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT 12Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MOVING OUT OF THE IOWA WITH RAIN GETTING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. WILL
LEAVE THE NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

(8/6)THURSDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE LOW ALONG THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA BOARDER WITH THE RAIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF M-
32. THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
TO W UPPER. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF H5 RIDGING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES...AS WELL AS OUR PRECIP CHANCES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING DRIVEN BY DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE
SPOTTY AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH THRU 04-06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY TO REFORM ON TUESDAY AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE REGION. OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW WINDS AOB 10 KTS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OTHER THAN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS...NOT MUCH GOING ON
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND WARM LAKES...GETTING CLOSE TO LAKE-AIR
DELTA THRESHOLDS FOR WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT. COLDEST AIR GOES OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-
     348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 032304
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
704 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT
12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. PRETTY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MASS OF CLOUDS IN UPPER COLD POOL WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT...SO
COULD BE A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY.

(8/4)TUESDAY...MODELS PEG ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, TO BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA (BASED ON
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO +5C ON THE GFS AND +7C ON THE ECMWF. THE WATER
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE +20C, SO WE HAVE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.

NOW FOR THE WATERSPOUTS...AM HIGHLY UNDERWHELMED BY THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA
TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR
SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO. THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE ABOUT
13C. SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A 1 OR 2 ON
THE SWI BY SZILAGYI. SO IT`S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY REPORTS.

(8/5)WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD AT 500 MB AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 8C BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL, SORT OF. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER A SFC LOW MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF HAS IT IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT 12Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MOVING OUT OF THE IOWA WITH RAIN GETTING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. WILL
LEAVE THE NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

(8/6)THURSDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE LOW ALONG THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA BOARDER WITH THE RAIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF M-
32. THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
TO W UPPER. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF H5 RIDGING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES...AS WELL AS OUR PRECIP CHANCES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING DRIVEN BY DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE
SPOTTY AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH THRU 04-06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY TO REFORM ON TUESDAY AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE REGION. OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW WINDS AOB 10 KTS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OTHER THAN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS...NOT MUCH GOING ON
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND WARM LAKES...GETTING CLOSE TO LAKE-AIR
DELTA THRESHOLDS FOR WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT. COLDEST AIR GOES OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032304
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
704 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT
12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. PRETTY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MASS OF CLOUDS IN UPPER COLD POOL WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT...SO
COULD BE A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY.

(8/4)TUESDAY...MODELS PEG ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, TO BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA (BASED ON
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO +5C ON THE GFS AND +7C ON THE ECMWF. THE WATER
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE +20C, SO WE HAVE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.

NOW FOR THE WATERSPOUTS...AM HIGHLY UNDERWHELMED BY THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA
TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR
SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO. THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE ABOUT
13C. SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A 1 OR 2 ON
THE SWI BY SZILAGYI. SO IT`S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY REPORTS.

(8/5)WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD AT 500 MB AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 8C BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL, SORT OF. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER A SFC LOW MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF HAS IT IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT 12Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MOVING OUT OF THE IOWA WITH RAIN GETTING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. WILL
LEAVE THE NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

(8/6)THURSDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE LOW ALONG THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA BOARDER WITH THE RAIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF M-
32. THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
TO W UPPER. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF H5 RIDGING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES...AS WELL AS OUR PRECIP CHANCES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING DRIVEN BY DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE
SPOTTY AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH THRU 04-06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ONLY TO REFORM ON TUESDAY AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU THE REGION. OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR DESPITE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. NW WINDS AOB 10 KTS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OTHER THAN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS...NOT MUCH GOING ON
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND WARM LAKES...GETTING CLOSE TO LAKE-AIR
DELTA THRESHOLDS FOR WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT. COLDEST AIR GOES OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT
12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. PRETTY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MASS OF CLOUDS IN UPPER COLD POOL WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT...SO
COULD BE A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY.

(8/4)TUESDAY...MODELS PEG ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, TO BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA (BASED ON
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO +5C ON THE GFS AND +7C ON THE ECMWF. THE WATER
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE +20C, SO WE HAVE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.

NOW FOR THE WATERSPOUTS...AM HIGHLY UNDERWHELMED BY THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA
TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR
SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO. THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE ABOUT
13C. SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A 1 OR 2 ON
THE SWI BY SZILAGYI. SO IT`S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY REPORTS.

(8/5)WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD AT 500 MB AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 8C BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL, SORT OF. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER A SFC LOW MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF HAS IT IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT 12Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MOVING OUT OF THE IOWA WITH RAIN GETTING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. WILL
LEAVE THE NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

(8/6)THURSDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE LOW ALONG THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA BOARDER WITH THE RAIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF M-
32. THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
TO W UPPER. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF H5 RIDGING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES...AS WELL AS OUR PRECIP CHANCES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK UNDER UPPER COLD POOL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD BE SOME MVFR
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF AN MBL-APN LINE BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED. GENERAL NW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OTHER THAN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS...NOT MUCH GOING ON
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND WARM LAKES...GETTING CLOSE TO LAKE-AIR
DELTA THRESHOLDS FOR WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT. COLDEST AIR GOES OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031948
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES STARTED OUT AROUND 500J/KG AT
12Z BUT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. PRETTY SCATTERED AT THIS TIME AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MASS OF CLOUDS IN UPPER COLD POOL WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT...SO
COULD BE A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT TO SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY.

(8/4)TUESDAY...MODELS PEG ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, TO BE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA (BASED ON
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO +5C ON THE GFS AND +7C ON THE ECMWF. THE WATER
TEMPERATURES IN N LAKE MICHIGAN ARE +20C, SO WE HAVE ENOUGH FOR LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.

NOW FOR THE WATERSPOUTS...AM HIGHLY UNDERWHELMED BY THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE NOMOGRAM WITH THE DELTA
TS AT THE MOST (THIS IS ON THE GFS) 15C WHICH THE LOWER BOUND, FOR
SOMETHING UNDER AN UPPER LOW SCENARIO. THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE ABOUT
13C. SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A 1 OR 2 ON
THE SWI BY SZILAGYI. SO IT`S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES,
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY REPORTS.

(8/5)WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD AT 500 MB AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 8C BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS WELL, SORT OF. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER A SFC LOW MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF HAS IT IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT 12Z, WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MOVING OUT OF THE IOWA WITH RAIN GETTING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. WILL
LEAVE THE NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

(8/6)THURSDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE LOW ALONG THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA BOARDER WITH THE RAIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF M-
32. THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT RAIN IN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
TO W UPPER. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL SEE HOW THIS WORKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF H5 RIDGING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES...AS WELL AS OUR PRECIP CHANCES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK UNDER UPPER COLD POOL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD BE SOME MVFR
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF AN MBL-APN LINE BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED. GENERAL NW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

OTHER THAN A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS...NOT MUCH GOING ON
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND WARM LAKES...GETTING CLOSE TO LAKE-AIR
DELTA THRESHOLDS FOR WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES...BUT PROBABLY NOT
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT. COLDEST AIR GOES OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031649
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK UNDER UPPER COLD POOL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD BE SOME MVFR
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF AN MBL-APN LINE BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED. GENERAL NW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031649
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW TO MID LEVEL DECK UNDER UPPER COLD POOL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD BE SOME MVFR
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF AN MBL-APN LINE BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED. GENERAL NW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALMOST ALL FOG AND STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT...BUT A
BIG AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WAS MOVING INTO NRN LOWER...WHILE
EASTERN UPPER WAS FILLING IN WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN DEEPER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ALL-IN-ALL SHAPING UP TO BECOME A
RATHER CLOUDY DAY.

SFC TROUGH WAS ALREADY LAID OUT ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS
MORNING...AND LOOKS TO DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH NRN LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME
ONSHORE TURNING OF THE WIND...RESULTING IN SOME ADDED LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND NE
LOWER.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS THOUGHT ALREADY PLAYED OUT...BUT DID
SLIDE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
CHIPPEWA COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH
SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031045
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LIFT INTO A
BKNMVFR DECK OF CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING...MIXING
OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.
AFTER THE STRATUS AND FOG...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030733
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN NRN
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN. YESTERDAYS STORMS WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...NOW DROPPING SOUTH AS AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LINE OF
CONVECTION. NRN MICHIGAN IS IN THE CAA REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO FALL. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING. THE CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO SW ONTARIO...WAS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. STRATUS/CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD BACK THROUGH VIRTUALLY
ALL OF ONTARIO AND MUCH OF MANITOBA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SLOW COOL/DRY ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT STRATUS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH AND INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PUSHED BY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW IN
W/NW ONTARIO. SO...AFTER A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...AND SKIES
WILL TURN CLOUDIER WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING.
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...BUT EASTERN UPPER
STRAITS REGION SEEM LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...THEN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT INSTABILITY ISN`T ALL THAT GREAT AT
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...CONTINUED
COOLING AIR ALOFT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE BETTER
SHOWERS. ALSO...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WATERSPOUT CHANCES
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THAT THREAT CONTINUING WITH
ANY SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. H8 TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS 7-8C BY LATE
TONIGHT...AND IT ISN`T TOO FAR OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE WARMER LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON...IN WNW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH BECAME ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO DURING THE WEEKEND AND WOBBLED AROUND JAMES BAY TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK...WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER QUEBEC AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TUESDAY. INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS (850/500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 5.5-6C/KM) WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MI
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT (500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -17C)
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN TUESDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...AS 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 6C/7C WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN SFC WATER TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 20C WHILE SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN LAKES AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO 7C TUESDAY TO
ARND 6C WEDNESDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL GENERATE BELOW
NORMAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS NRN MI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE AROUND 8C TO 10C
INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING A TAD TO AROUND 12C MONDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS NRN MI
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMERS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GENERALLY WILL CONTINUE A DRY TREND ACROSS NRN MI THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY THURSDAY SLOWLY TRENDS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW CROSSES THE NRN LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE VERY SLOW TO ENTER THE REGION...BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LINGERING DOWN LOW...SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS AT
PLN/APN...NOT SO AT TVC/MBL...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT MONDAY MORNING AS A W TO NW BREEZE
INCREASES. SOME -SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NE LOWER (APN AREA).

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A NW TO W BREEZE MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN OVERALL WESTERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WAVERING BETWEEN SW TO NW AT TIMES AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE WILL ALSO
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...WITH GROWING
INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR WATERSPOUTS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE VERY SLOW TO ENTER THE REGION...BEHIND A
COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LINGERING DOWN LOW...SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS AT
PLN/APN...NOT SO AT TVC/MBL...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN. WILL SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT MONDAY MORNING AS A W TO NW BREEZE
INCREASES. SOME -SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NE LOWER (APN AREA).

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...A NW TO W BREEZE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WHEW!

STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LINGERS OVER SE
SECTIONS. A ISOLATED -SHRA OR TWO IS SEEN ELSEWHERE...BUT BY AND
LARGE A DRYING TREND IS EVIDENT. VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
WELL DOWNSTATE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF PRECIP EXIT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CIRROSTRATUS DECK IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES. HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CLEAR SKIES TO THE W/NW OF
THIS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTERN
SUPERIOR...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER NE WI. WE SUDDENLY HAVE AN
ABUNDANCE OF BL MOISTURE...AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. SO THERE/S NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION UNTIL MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL THUS LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS.

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL IN THE CLEAN-UP PROCESS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 022340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
 016-019>021-025-026-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 022340
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN MI. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...PRIMARILY VFR WEATHER ANTICIAPTED FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
 016-019>021-025-026-031.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 022002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KAPX 022002
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST TRAVERSES THE REGION. PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPES SPREADING NE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...AND H5
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER (FINAL?) ROUND OF
STORMS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NW LOWER. FOLKS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32 CORRIDOR WILL BE IMPACTED NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME WNW OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER AREAS S/E OF A APN-CAD LINE. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ON THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER ON MONDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: A QUICK SWITCH FROM SUMMER TO
FALL WEATHERWISE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PIECES ROTATING AROUND MAIN
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW SINKING
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  ONE WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIKELY SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL WARRANT A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE /GIVEN THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS/.   THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN VERY COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 4-6C BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUFFICIENT
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS ON THE GREAT LAKES - ESPECIALLY LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STILL LOTS OF DIVERGENCE IN HANDLING OF H5 RIDGING TO THE
WEST. PREVIOUSLY MORE SUBDUED GUIDANCE IS GETTING A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IS SLOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL KEEP WITH BLENDED
SUGGESTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRISK SW BREEZES AHEAD OF
FRONT. WIND...WAVE...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL FRONT CROSSES REGION. COOL NW BREEZES OVERSPREAD
REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERPSREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021757
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR AVIATORS. A WARM/HUMID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO OVERPSREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS FUELING PERIODS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THESE
STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-07Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN SCT-BKN SC/CU LIFT TO
VFR THRESHOLD. COOLER NW BREEZES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     016-019>021-025-026-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1109 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1109 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRST ROUND OF STORMS /BOWING SEGMENT/ IS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AFTER PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT
AND AROUND THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE POISED TO PUSH INTO NW
LOWER MI NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS IS OCCURRING AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS /50-55 KTS AT 500
MB/ AND WE ALSO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...THANKS TO 65-70F
SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NE.

ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL FRONT
TRAVERSES REGION IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM. PASSING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INTO SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 020834
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 020834
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH HAIL/WINDS/TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM
WHICH SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EMANATE.  COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA/
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WHILE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A SECOND CLUSTER HAS BLOSSOMED SINCE
MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE
A MID CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CLIPPING CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
SOME SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE BIG LAKE AS WELL.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS (MPX/ABR IN PARTICULAR).  APX
SOUNDING MIXED LAYER REACHED JUST BELOW 700MB...LOW LAYERS WERE
DRIER THAN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS (0-1KM MIXING RATIOS AROUND 7G/KG AT
APX...AROUND 12G/KG AT MPX).  LACK OF MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT LOOKS ABOUT TO
CHANGE...

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR THE EARLY WEEK
PERIOD.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AND WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLUTION OF STORM CLUSTER OVER WISCONSIN FIRST ON
THE DOCKET THIS MORNING.  WHILE AS MENTIONED ABOVE INITIAL
INSTABILITY IS LACKING...THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FLIP FROM
DOWNWARD TO UPWARD QG FORCING EXPECTED TO ALLOW UPSTREAM STORMS TO
PROPAGATE/EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTING INITIAL STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE 11-12Z TIME
FRAME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING EAST.  LOW LEVEL MUCAPE OVER 1500J/KG
AND 40-50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT RIGHT OFF THE
BAT THIS MORNING WITH INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPMENT.  SECOND STORM
CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD RIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OUT AHEAD OF IT (OR ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA DURING MID/LATE MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF LATER CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND HOW MUCH INITIAL CLOUDS/RAIN
IMPACT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY END UP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
TODAY.  WILL SIMPLY WORD THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND AVOID TRYING TO YO-YO POPS UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SINCE THAT WILL END UP A DISASTER.  DO PLAN TO MENTION AN
EXPLICIT SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF SPC ENHANCED RISK TUCKED UP TO M-72 AND SLIGHT
RISK THROUGH THE STRAITS.  PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50KTS)
WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SO SEVERE THREATS WILL RUN THE
GAMUT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING (HAIL/WIND/TORNADO).  WILL WIND POPS
DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIFTED INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY. THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER ONTARIO WILL WOBBLE AROUND JAMES BAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED MID LVL TEMPS SHOW
850MB READINGS FALLING TO AROUND 8C MONDAY BEFORE NEARING 6C
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF NRN MI TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
FEW INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK.
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ALOFT...WITH COOL MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS COMBINED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING DYNAMICS. 850MB DEW PTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 9C AND 12C
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SFC DEW PTS BEGIN THE DAY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.5 C/KM AS 850MB TEMPS FALL FROM 12C EARLY TO 8C BY MONDAY
EVENING. 500/300MB QVECTORS MONDAY SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE OVER NRN
MI THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWERS AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MI...THOUGH TO SOMEWHAT LESSER
EXTEND WITH MID LVL DEW PTS DRYING TO UNDER 5C AND SFC DEW PTS
DRYING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS HAVING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAD BEEN ANCHORED AROUND JAMES BAY
SINCE THIS BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TRANSITION THE UPPER PATTERN
TOWARD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND
6C ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LINGER UPPER TROUGH...TO BETWEEN 9C AND 10C
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NRN MI. IT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS NRN
MI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES QUICKLY OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHGIAN AND PARTS OF LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES SOUTH OF THUNDER
BAY TODAY.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON ALL THE LAKES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 020359
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MI LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI...TOWARD
OR AFTER DAWN. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION.
DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR
TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR
WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOT A HUGE PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
IFR CIGS SUNDAY EVENING AT MBL...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT
SOME GRUNGE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE MI.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS CONTINUE IN EASTERN UPPER. IN THE PAST
HOUR THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS BEEN ACTIVE...WHILE CONVECTION
A BIT TO THE SOUTH HAS FADED. REGARDLESS...WHAT/S LEFT OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND AS SURFACE RIDGING
TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. BUT THIS FLOW NEVER REALLY
GETS CRANKING TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS REACH NEAR 30KT LATE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA/CENTRAL WI...BUT BY THEN THOSE WINDS HAVE VEERED
ALMOST WESTERLY. THIS IS FAR FROM AN IDEAL SET-UP TO SUSTAIN AN
MCS INTO THE REGION LATE. THERE IS ALSO ALMOST NO CONVECTION TO
SPEAK OF UPSTREAM...AT LEAST NOT YET. WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SUPERIOR...AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DOME OF COLD MARINE AIR (EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BUOY AIR TEMP NEVER HIT 50F TODAY) ACTS AS A PSUEDO-WARM
FRONT.

ACTIVITY ON SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP SE-WARD WITH TIME WITH THE
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...AND REMAINS ON PACE TO PERHAPS BRING RAIN
TO EASTERN UPPER (CHIPPEWA CO ESPECIALLY) AFTER 2AM. ALSO...DO
STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA/TSRA TO GET GOING WEST OF LAKE MI AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT THAT WAY. BUT THIS ALSO MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 2 AM. THIS COULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH SOME
SHRA/TSRA INTO NW LOWER VERY LATE...AS THE GOING FORECAST
INDICATES. HOWEVER...WILL TEND TO DECREASE POPS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 012339
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHRA/TSRA LIKELY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MI
LATE SUNDAY. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD REACH NORTHERN LOWER MI AT OR A BIT AFTER
DAWN. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY...AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS FADED OUT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION. DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE DOWN THE BEST RELATIVELY
NARROW WINDOW FOR TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS. FOR NOW...HAVE TSRA
MENTIONED FOR A 4-HR WINDOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING
AND VEERING W VERY LATE IN THE DAY. LLWS OVERNIGHT AT PLN...WITH
STRONGER WSW WINDS OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 011935
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AT APN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AT
TVC/PLN/MBL AFTER 08Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011935
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND LARGE HUDSON BAY GYRE CONTINUES WITH ONE WAVE SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT.  THIS SECOND WAVE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES ON SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF LINGERING DAYTIME
CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...LINGERING DIURNAL ACTIVITY MAINLY CLOSER TO
LAKE HURON SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY AS INSTABILITY WANES AND MESO-
SCALE LAKE CIRCULATIONS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO INDUCE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.  BEST LOW LEVEL
JET INITIALLY WILL FOCUS CONVECTION OVER IOWA/MINNESOTA/WRN
WISCONSIN...WITH THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES TOWARD 12Z AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL WITH INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 08-09Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UNSETTLED WITH A RISK FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THEN TURNING
COOLER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WILL SHARPEN BY EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD...AND A STRONGER
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES SHAPE OVER EXTREME NRN ONTARIO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT /SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS
FIRM. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED H5 SHORT WAVE
INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN MN EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WSW LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY /POSSIBLY AN MCS/ SOMEWHERE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES /WRN LOWER MI?/. THE USUAL QUESTIONS WILL THEN COME
INTO PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NAMELY WILL CONVECTION SUSTAIN
ITSELF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND WHAT IMPACT
WILL THE CONVECTION AND/OR ITS DEBRIS HAVE ON DESTABILIZATION LATER
IN THE DAY? ADDITIONALLY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS PUSHES WARM FRONT WELL NORTH TOWARD THE TIP OF THE
MITT...WHILE NAM KEEPS FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER. THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN SPITE OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA...AS H5 WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSHOT...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
/SOUTH OF PETOSKEY-ALPENA LINE/ WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED...AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT...H8 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND +5C OVER THE FAR NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY
/PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME SUBTLE LAKE INFLUENCES/. WITH SAID UPPER
TROUGH...WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE
TROUGHINESS/CONVERGENCE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...A SMALL RISK FOR
SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED BOTH DAYS FOR PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW...SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT FROM DRY
TO A DECENT RAIN. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE PERSISTENT
H5 RIDGING OUT WEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...OR NEAR...OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES LIE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL HAVE THE BETTER FORCING FURTHER
NORTH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE CWA. LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS RESULT IN
THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH...AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE IS FAVORING CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES GET IRONED OUT. I AM NOT SOLD ON THIS JUST
YET...AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE.
WILL NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE POPS YET...BUT EXPECT SOLUTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING TO OUR SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY WEEKEND FOR US. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AT APN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AT
TVC/PLN/MBL AFTER 08Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT NORTH OF SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE LIGHT NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY LAKE HURON.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 011722
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
122 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN AREA FOR
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF M-65 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND
THROUGH MACKINAC COUNTY/FAR SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN
UPPER. THIS DUE IN LARGE PART TO MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVERLAID ON PREVALING WESTERLY FLOW.
MLCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG...SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CREATE A FEW
GUSTY STORMS /NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED/. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
VERY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID
CLOUDS. RADAR STILL FAIRLY QUIET...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AS
ATMOSPHERE MODESTLY DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BACK
DOWN SLIGHTLY ON CURRENT POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MESO-SCALE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AT APN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AT
TVC/PLN/MBL AFTER 08Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011722
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
122 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN AREA FOR
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF M-65 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND
THROUGH MACKINAC COUNTY/FAR SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN
UPPER. THIS DUE IN LARGE PART TO MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVERLAID ON PREVALING WESTERLY FLOW.
MLCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG...SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CREATE A FEW
GUSTY STORMS /NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED/. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
VERY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID
CLOUDS. RADAR STILL FAIRLY QUIET...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AS
ATMOSPHERE MODESTLY DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BACK
DOWN SLIGHTLY ON CURRENT POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MESO-SCALE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AT APN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AT
TVC/PLN/MBL AFTER 08Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 011722
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
122 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN AREA FOR
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF M-65 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND
THROUGH MACKINAC COUNTY/FAR SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN
UPPER. THIS DUE IN LARGE PART TO MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVERLAID ON PREVALING WESTERLY FLOW.
MLCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG...SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CREATE A FEW
GUSTY STORMS /NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED/. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
VERY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID
CLOUDS. RADAR STILL FAIRLY QUIET...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AS
ATMOSPHERE MODESTLY DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BACK
DOWN SLIGHTLY ON CURRENT POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MESO-SCALE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AT APN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AT
TVC/PLN/MBL AFTER 08Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011722
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
122 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN AREA FOR
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF M-65 IN NORTHERN LOWER AND
THROUGH MACKINAC COUNTY/FAR SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN
UPPER. THIS DUE IN LARGE PART TO MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVERLAID ON PREVALING WESTERLY FLOW.
MLCAPES OF 300-400 J/KG...SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CREATE A FEW
GUSTY STORMS /NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED/. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
VERY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID
CLOUDS. RADAR STILL FAIRLY QUIET...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AS
ATMOSPHERE MODESTLY DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BACK
DOWN SLIGHTLY ON CURRENT POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MESO-SCALE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AT APN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING AT
TVC/PLN/MBL AFTER 08Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 011350
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
950 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MID
CLOUDS. RADAR STILL FAIRLY QUIET...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AS
ATMOSPHERE MODESTLY DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BACK
DOWN SLIGHTLY ON CURRENT POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. MESO-SCALE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND APN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 011136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND APN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 011136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND APN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 011136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND APN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 011136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND APN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010828
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERNIGHT FOG AT MBL...OTHERWISE VFR.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAYS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY FIZZLED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME -SHRA IN MBL
EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. OTHER TAF SITES COULD SEE
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH APN THE SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. OUTSIDE
OF FOG...ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...MOSTLY IN THE
6-10K FT RANGE.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A W TO NW BREEZE WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010828
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERNIGHT FOG AT MBL...OTHERWISE VFR.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAYS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY FIZZLED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME -SHRA IN MBL
EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. OTHER TAF SITES COULD SEE
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH APN THE SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. OUTSIDE
OF FOG...ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...MOSTLY IN THE
6-10K FT RANGE.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A W TO NW BREEZE WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 010828
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERNIGHT FOG AT MBL...OTHERWISE VFR.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAYS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY FIZZLED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME -SHRA IN MBL
EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. OTHER TAF SITES COULD SEE
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH APN THE SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. OUTSIDE
OF FOG...ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...MOSTLY IN THE
6-10K FT RANGE.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A W TO NW BREEZE WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 010828
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO A
WEAK LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  BROAD AREA OF HIGHER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  TRAIN OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LAST IN THE
SERIES DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TOWARD WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH
THIS FEATURE...BUT SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  00Z APX SOUNDING EXHIBITED PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 600MB.

ONTARIO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS
LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY (POSSIBLY EARLY
IN THE DAY)...IMPACTS OF WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT.

TODAY...TIMING UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER BRINGS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH EARLY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALREADY IN PLACE PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.  SO THINK WE MAY SEE SOME
EARLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
PERHAPS SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG-WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER.  ONCE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT INTO LAKE HURON BY MID AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL FOCUS POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...
WHILE EXPECT PRECIP THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER LATER
IN THE DAY.  SOME WIND GUSTINESS WILL STILL BE AROUND DUE TO DEEP
MIXING BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY AS WELL.  MOSTLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH 70S TO THE NORTH AND SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER.

TONIGHT...ENERGY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT THIS WILL INDUCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES.  DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO BE SPREADING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...WITH INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ASSUMING LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION IS DONE...SHOULD BE A QUIET START TO
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT
RAIN FOR MONDAY?

(8/2)SUNDAY...AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN RAPIDLY ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT LITTLE SFC LOW ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM
TO THINK THAT THE WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL JOIN WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE SOME THUNDER, BUT AM STILL NOT REALLY HYPED UP ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WE
COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF WHERE THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER N LOWER WITH THE WARM SECTOR ALONG M-55 OR M-
72. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL SWEEP THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. HOWEVER, WITH THE
AREA NORTH OF M-55 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, WILL EXPECT THAT OUR
SEVERE CHANCE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.  THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND THINGS
INITIALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD DRY OUT, BUT...BY 09Z, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COOLEST AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, AND THE LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE IN
FULL FORCE, AS WE MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SEE THAT MISTY LIGHT RAIN
IN NW LOWER THAT IS USUALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT RAIN.

(8/3)MONDAY...THE LE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY AS THE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OUT OF THE NW WITH THE 1000-
850 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 15KNOTS. SO WOULD EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE OF A CELLULAR NATURE, UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME BETTER SHEAR TO
ORGANIZE BANDS. DON`T THINK THAT THESE WILL DO MUCH ACCUMULATION
WISE, WHICH IS WHY THE POPS ARE 20-30%, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET
FAIRLY DAMP. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +5C ON THE GFS,
+8C ON THE ECMWF. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURES
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE AROUND 20C + OR - A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS LEADS
TO SFC TO 850 MB DELTA TS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15C, WITH SOME AREAS
SOLIDLY AROUND 12 TO 13C. THIS LASTS INTO THE NIGHT, AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WE MAY GET BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUMMER FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IN THE MEANTIME WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 500 MB LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL (GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF ON TUESDAY), WE COULD CONTINUE A VERY COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
THAT LASTS INTO ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERNIGHT FOG AT MBL...OTHERWISE VFR.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAYS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY FIZZLED OUT. HOWEVER...SOME -SHRA IN MBL
EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. OTHER TAF SITES COULD SEE
SHALLOW GROUND FOG. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH APN THE SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. OUTSIDE
OF FOG...ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY VFR...MOSTLY IN THE
6-10K FT RANGE.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A W TO NW BREEZE WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO START TODAY BUT
ANTICIPATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEFORMATION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN LAKE AND
LAND.  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UBIQUITOUS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





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