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000
FXUS63 KAPX 050347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME VERY...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS MANAGED TO POP DOWN IN THE SE
COUNTIES. BUT CERTAINLY NO SIGNS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND CU FIELD
IS WELL INTO THE PROCESS OF FADING. SO...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST ENTIRELY ALTHOUGH I HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/TWEAKS ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. BUT I MAY ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING
UPWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
OUR RATHER THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.

OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL
SITES...GIVEN OUR INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z. STRONGER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMMENCES SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MANIFEST
ITSELF AS A LOWER CLOUD LAYER PUSHING UP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY INCREASE FROM THE S/SW SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LAKE BREEZES
WILL TEND TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN (SAVE FOR THE
SMOKE).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 050347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME VERY...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS MANAGED TO POP DOWN IN THE SE
COUNTIES. BUT CERTAINLY NO SIGNS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND CU FIELD
IS WELL INTO THE PROCESS OF FADING. SO...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST ENTIRELY ALTHOUGH I HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/TWEAKS ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. BUT I MAY ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING
UPWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
OUR RATHER THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.

OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL
SITES...GIVEN OUR INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z. STRONGER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMMENCES SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MANIFEST
ITSELF AS A LOWER CLOUD LAYER PUSHING UP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY INCREASE FROM THE S/SW SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LAKE BREEZES
WILL TEND TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN (SAVE FOR THE
SMOKE).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME VERY...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS MANAGED TO POP DOWN IN THE SE
COUNTIES. BUT CERTAINLY NO SIGNS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND CU FIELD
IS WELL INTO THE PROCESS OF FADING. SO...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST ENTIRELY ALTHOUGH I HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/TWEAKS ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. BUT I MAY ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING
UPWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
OUR RATHER THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.

OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL
SITES...GIVEN OUR INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z. STRONGER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMMENCES SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MANIFEST
ITSELF AS A LOWER CLOUD LAYER PUSHING UP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY INCREASE FROM THE S/SW SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LAKE BREEZES
WILL TEND TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN (SAVE FOR THE
SMOKE).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME VERY...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS MANAGED TO POP DOWN IN THE SE
COUNTIES. BUT CERTAINLY NO SIGNS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND CU FIELD
IS WELL INTO THE PROCESS OF FADING. SO...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST ENTIRELY ALTHOUGH I HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/TWEAKS ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. BUT I MAY ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING
UPWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
OUR RATHER THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.

OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AT THE TERMINAL
SITES...GIVEN OUR INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z. STRONGER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMMENCES SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MANIFEST
ITSELF AS A LOWER CLOUD LAYER PUSHING UP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY INCREASE FROM THE S/SW SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LAKE BREEZES
WILL TEND TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN (SAVE FOR THE
SMOKE).

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 050013
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME VERY...VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS MANAGED TO POP DOWN IN THE SE
COUNTIES. BUT CERTAINLY NO SIGNS OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND CU FIELD
IS WELL INTO THE PROCESS OF FADING. SO...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST ENTIRELY ALTHOUGH I HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/TWEAKS ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. BUT I MAY ADD IN SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING
UPWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH
OUR RATHER THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SOME FOG FORMATION IS A POSSIBILITY AT THE TERMINAL
SITES LATER TONIGHT...GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS CREEPING HIGHER THROUGH
THE DAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...ANY OVERNIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z. STRONGER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMMENCES SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY MANIFEST
ITSELF AS A LOWER CLOUD LAYER PUSHING UP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL
INITIALLYINCREASE FROM THE S/SW SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LAKE BREEZES
WILL TEND TO TURN WINDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041910
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041910
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING OVER THE FAR SE /GLADWIN-IOSCO-ARENAC COUNTIES/ IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK H9-H8 THETA-E GRADIENT LAYING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF MICHIGAN. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
SLIDING INTO THE AREA LATER FROM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN. WE MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND SFC DWPTS GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE 50S. MIN TEMPS FAIRLY
NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH EXPECTED. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS DECENT WAA COMMENCES ON
BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
H8 TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR +17C AND SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ERN UPPER AND THE LOW-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS
SUGGEST A SMALL RISK FOR POP UP LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
INTERIOR NRN LOWER...WITH ~1300 J/KG MLCAPE (!?). HOWEVER...GIVEN
RESPECTABLE CAP JUST ABOVE 700 MB...DRY GOING FORECAST...AND LIMITED
CONDITIONAL COVERAGE...WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME - BUT CAN/T STRICTLY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT...IT/LL REMAIN WARM.
UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL DIP ONLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY...THE WARMING CONTINUES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS...AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. EXPECT
SOME CU TO FORM...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS LATE AHEAD OF
SAID COLD FRONT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR A DECENT SHOT
AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONT THAT WILL
TRAVERSE NRN MICHIGAN...PWAT/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES...FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14KFT...AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT H8 LLJ
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY/BRIEFLY BE IMPRESSIVE. AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT...H5 WINDS APPROACHING 35 KTS TOGETHER WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS /SEE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK/. ALL SAID...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY FRONT /AND THEREFORE PRECIP/ WILL PUSH E OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TAPER PRECIP OFF /COVERAGE AND TIMING/
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM SE TO NW. CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER-MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL DAY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WORK BACK TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE WEEK RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. A LATE WEEK SYSTEM PASSING
TO OUR SOUTH IS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL
BE...LEADING TO THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR OUR AREA...BUT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO DRIFT OR REMAIN SOUTH AS THE DAYS GROW CLOSER
I EXPECT THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
COULD BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A MAIN DRIVER OF THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING FROM AN H5 LOW OFF THE CA COAST...AND AS EXPECTED THERE IS
A GOOD DEAL OF DIVERGENCE IN HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS. POP
CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT FOR NOW...AS PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
DRY TO CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL THOUGHTS AT THIS TIME
ARE A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF SOLUTIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE...PLACING BETTER INSTABILITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT STILL GIVING US SOME
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR AND A LIGHTER WIND REGIME
ANTICIPATED FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041726
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DIURNAL CU FIELDS BEGINNING TO GROW AND STILL EXPECTING A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES
ANTICIPATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.  WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FEW SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LOWER MI...SOUTH
OF APN. SO NO TROUBLE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES. HAZY CONDITIONS
/MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES/...WITH DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT PLN/MBL. AFTER EARLY MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041431
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.  WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041431
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MARINE FOG/STRATUS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
UPPER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER /ALBEIT A BIT SMOKY/. EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POP-UP
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF ALPENA THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SKINNY MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA WITH NO
SHEAR...SO NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.  WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN
THAT PART OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL...A VERY NICE JULY 4TH WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041136
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR MARINE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAT IS MAKING
STEADY INROADS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK. STRATUS LIKELY HAS ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
EXPANSION BEFORE THE SUN GOES TO WORK ON IT...AFTER WHICH IT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE (EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE).

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR THRU THIS EVENING...FOG OVERNIGHT.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI. SOME SHREDS
OF LOWER CLOUDS COULD MAKE THE PLN AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
RETREATING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS
SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT
FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD
NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR
DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVENING. WITH OUR AIR BECMOMING A BIT MORE HUMID...HAVE ADDED FOG
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL SITES...IFR PLN/MBL...MVFR TVC/APN.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040730
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SCATTERED T-STORMS MID-AFTERNOON
TO MID-EVENING SE SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI. 1005MB LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF JAMES BAY. SEVERAL TROFS EMANATE FROM THIS LOW...ONE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND JUST E OF GRB. THE PRIMARY THERMAL-
MOISTURE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR.
THE LAST OF THE DIURNAL SHRA ENDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2
AM...THOUGH A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NAM/RAP13 RUNS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAVE FORMS THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH LAND-LAKE THERMAL RESPONSES TO HEATING. BUT
WILL LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IN THE SE RESULT IN CONVECTION? THE NAM
AND NSSL WRF AGGRESSIVELY ARGUE YES...THE RAP NO. THE NAM IS
OVERDONE WHEN IT COMES TO IT/S SURFACE PARCEL (AS IS COMMON)...78/59
IS MORE REASONABLE THAN 82/62. BUT EVEN AFTER MAKING THAT
ADJUSTMENT...21Z MLCAPE SHOULD REACH NEAR 1100J/KG. WARMER TEMPS
ABOVE 640MB RESULTS IN A FAIRLY SKINNY CAPE (LI -1/-2)...BUT NOT
WARM ENOUGH TO IMPOSE A CAP. GIVEN LAKE BREEZES WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER...AM REASONABLY CONFIDENT THAT SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN SE SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH A SCT POP AFTER 19Z/3 PM...S OF
APN AND NEAR/E OF HTL. WIND FIELDS UP TO 700MB ARE LESS THAN
15KT...SO SHEAR AND SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

ELSEWHERE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 4TH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MID-EVENING IN THE FAR
SE...PARTS OF IOSCO/ARENAC/STANDISH COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NW SURFACE
WINDS/COOL ADVECTION WILL BE ESTABLISHED VERY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AFTER 02Z/10PM. SPOTTY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN WI...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CROSS CHILLY LAKE MI THIS EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER REACH NW LOWER MI...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN, ALLOWING
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL. THERE WERE WARNING SIGNS THE LAST FEW DAYS
THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO BUILD S THE RETURN FLOW GET
GOING. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PORTION, OR MAYBE EVEN MOST OF N MICHIGAN
WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT, THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE FRONT. SO
THAT THE FRONT LIES ON A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY
DOWN TO KMSP. THIS HOLDS THE SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS INTO
MONDAY.

(7/6)MONDAY...AGAIN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD TO HOLD THE SYSTEM UP AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND HEAD UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONCE IT DOES, THEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AROUND 00Z. OF COURSE, AS THE SFC LOW AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
CONTINUE NE, THE FRONT DOES HAVE THE MOMENTUM, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
LOSES ITS DYNAMIC LIFT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT, TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINK THAT THE GFS`S FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM BY 18Z LOOKS BETTER AS THE WAVE LIFTS
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
THE GFS BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO
FAR THE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO REALLY, IT BEGINNING
TO LOOK DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI WILL MAINTAIN WEAK
WINDS AND WAVES THRU TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SCT PM T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN NE LOWER
MI...SOUTH OF ALPENA. SOME OF THESE COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR.

A SHRA PASSING NEAR APN...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY...PERHAPS SPAWNING SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD STAY IN NE
LOWER MI...SOUTH OF APN. SO SHOULD NOT TROUBLE THE TAF SITES. SOME
PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNAL CU...BUT NO INTERRUPTIONS TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040209
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WEAK TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE FROM FAR NORTHWEST LOWER INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ONGOING THUNDER.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN OBSERVED DESPITE THE NUMBER OF RADAR
RETURNS...WITH MAINLY MID CLOUD SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
THUNDER SHOULD END. BUT ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 032235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032235
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031954
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.

LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A
WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT DROPS THRU NRN MICHIGAN. SW WINDS
AOB 10 KTS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031422
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE
THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN...NW WISCONSIN
AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
HITS OF THUNDER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO NRN SECTIONS OF UPR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. AGAIN...
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS IS INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THRU TODAY. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
HEATS UP...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP ANY
CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AT BAY.

GOING POP/WX FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. WITH
LOW LEVEL WAA/SW FLOW ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031040
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT MBL VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT MBL...THAT WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IN NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT TVC/MBL...WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE
5K FT.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030716
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM EASTERN
UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTH FLANK OF
THE HIGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI...THOUGH ANY ACTUAL PRECIP IS STILL 100-PLUS MILES
TO THE NW. LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MI TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL ONLY REACH CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HI-REZ GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EARLY MORNING
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING SUPERIOR WILL LAY DOWN AN E-W BOUNDARY...ONE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OVER INTO UPPER MI AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. A LAKE
BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND (950MB WINDS OVER LAND ARE ONLY
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE) WILL REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...
DIURNAL HEATING OVER SW UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI WILL WEAKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS THERE...WITH MLCAPES OF 300-500J/KG. THIS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY BY
SW/WSW SUB- 850MB WINDS. THE UNSTABLE PLUME ONLY CLIPS NW CHIP AND
NW MACK COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP ST IGNACE/LES
CHENEAUX/DETOUR AREAS DRY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHRA
NEAR/NORTH OF PARADISE...AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MACK/WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CHIP. TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY MID/UPPER 70S...COOLER ON THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MIDNIGHT...
AND NEAR APN/JUST SOUTH OF TVC BY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT ONCE DIURNAL HEATING
WANES. IN ADDITION...THE STILL-CHILLY LAKES WILL INHIBIT PRECIP
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THAT SAID...ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE
FORECAST WARRANTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE: RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES WITH SATURDAY`S WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

(7/4)INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS. AT MOST THEY LOOK LIKE
30 POPS, BUT MORE THAN LIKELY AS THIS WEAK FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER RH < 20%). HAVE
CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ONCE THE FEATURE IS THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, AT THE SFC AND ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE DRY OUT.

(7/5)SUNDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD CONVERGENCE, BUT IT IS
STILL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF US, BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SO
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH THE BEST GRADIENT STILL WELL TO THE WEST. BY 12Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RETURN FLOW IS GOING, SO THAT THE MOISTURE AND HEAT
SHOULD GET GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONE ON
MONDAY, WHICH LOOKS BEEFY ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO ON TUESDAY AND STAYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS
THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN LOWER
MI COASTLINES RELATIVELY QUIET. SW WINDS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI
WILL MAKE THINGS A TOUCH BUMPY ON THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON. BUT WINDS/WAVES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
GETTING CLOSE TO WHITEFISH POINT BY SUNRISE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL ADD A LOW POP TO THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FEW WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
GETTING CLOSE TO WHITEFISH POINT BY SUNRISE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL ADD A LOW POP TO THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FEW WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN UPPER MI. A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHRA
COULD GRAZE BY PLN THIS EVENING...NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF
JUST YET. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS.

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE MORNING...A SW BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030205
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1005 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF SUPERIOR WILL HELP TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
GETTING CLOSE TO WHITEFISH POINT BY SUNRISE. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL ADD A LOW POP TO THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FEW WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD.
SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 8-15KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 022313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
713 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD.
SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 8-15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 022313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
713 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD.
SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 8-15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 022313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
713 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD.
SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AT 8-15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021943
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER THE HIGH CENTER
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021943
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS NOW NUDGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AREA OF MID CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS.
ONLY OTHER CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF IS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR WX CU THAT
HAVE POPPED UP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MID CLOUD DROPPING SE INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT HITS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CLIPS OUR NRN CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVE THRU NRN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: STRONG RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS TODAY WITH TROUGHINESS AND OF COURSE COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. WEATHER NIL FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN TIME
ALLOWING SOME WARMER (READ SEASONABLE) AIR TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE INTO THE PACIFIC BREAK DOWN

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ESPECIALLY. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL SKIRT THROUGH ONTARIO...
PUSHING A TRAILING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT...MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND A FEW SHOWERS
SAGGING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT BY ANY STRETCH (UNLESS OF COURSE
YOU/RE THE UNLUCKY SPOT THAT ENDS UP UNDER A HEAVY SHOWER)...BUT
THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP IN MIND
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME RAIN.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT LARGELY WASHES OUT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRETCHED OUT THETA-E AXIS
SITTING ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAS ALL THE
EARMARKS OF SPOTTY HEATING OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS
PARTS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS
BACK...AND HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST LARGELY INTACT.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REBUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING US BACK TO QUIET WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING S/SW FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER AIR
AND READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A NICE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE 500MB RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
80S ON MONDAY...BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE
MID 70S BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...GENERATING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER THE HIGH CENTER
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE AREAS AROUND ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MOISTURE-
STARVED FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS NOW BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES.
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR OUR NRN CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BETTER RESEMBLE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR NRN
MICHIGAN IN JULY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF BLUE SKIES. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER THE HIGH CENTER
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS NOW BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES.
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR OUR NRN CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BETTER RESEMBLE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR NRN
MICHIGAN IN JULY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF BLUE SKIES. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER THE HIGH CENTER
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS NOW BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES.
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR OUR NRN CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BETTER RESEMBLE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR NRN
MICHIGAN IN JULY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF BLUE SKIES. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER THE HIGH CENTER
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS NOW BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES.
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR OUR NRN CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BETTER RESEMBLE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR NRN
MICHIGAN IN JULY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF BLUE SKIES. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE SRN TIP OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW UNDER THE HIGH CENTER
WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BECOME LIGHT/CALM AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AOB 10
KTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021409
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST...WITH THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS NOW BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES.
AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH SE PROGRESS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR OUR NRN CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON WILL BETTER RESEMBLE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR NRN
MICHIGAN IN JULY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S UNDER PLENTY OF BLUE SKIES. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM UPPER TO LOWER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE/NO RISK OF
RESTRICTIONS. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THRU THE PLN AREA
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 021047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM UPPER TO LOWER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE/NO RISK OF
RESTRICTIONS. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THRU THE PLN AREA
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





000
FXUS63 KAPX 021047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM UPPER TO LOWER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE/NO RISK OF
RESTRICTIONS. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THRU THE PLN AREA
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020707
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
307 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM UPPER TO LOWER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE/NO RISK OF
RESTRICTIONS...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG THIS MORNING. MBL HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 020707
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
307 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NIL.

UPPER TROFFING WILL MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WITH
NORTHERN MI GETTING CLIPPED BY AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE. ONE OF THESE
CROSSES NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. A 2ND...MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DIGS
TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE OF SUPERIOR BY FRI MORNING. BUT AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTING FROM UPPER TO CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE
MOST PART OUR WX LOOKS QUIET...THOUGH PERHAPS THERE IS A RISK FOR A
STRAY SHOWER LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES DEAD OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY.
PLENTY OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE (SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENTLY
IN THE 40S)...AND THAT WON/T CHANGE TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SOME MID CLOUDS ARE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN SUPERIOR AND NW ONTARIO. PATCHY MID CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
NOT PREVENT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER
MI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE NW OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHRA AND SOME
TSRA UP ON NORTHERN ONTARIO. DRY LOW-LEVEL WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...AT LEAST UNTIL FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
(SUB-850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ARE 10-20C). THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL
UP BY WHITEFISH PT...BUT AM IN AGREEMENT WITH MQT IN KEEPING A
PRECIP THREAT OVER SUPERIOR AND POINTS NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. THAT WILL GIVE MIN TEMPS A CHANCE TO
TUMBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. MINS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NEAR 50F TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING STILL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER...WITH ALL THE REAL SUMMERTIME HEAT NOW
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON NOW WELL PROGGED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLATED TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME...WITH JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE THE NICE START TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING VERY LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DETAILS: STILL A RATHER NEBULOUS FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A MOISTURE STARVED AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW PEEL OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE A RATHER DRY ONE WITH ALL APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOW
LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COLLOCATION OF BEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT/MARGINAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION/AND LOW LEVEL JET
FORCING CENTERS ON FAR NORTHERN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH
ALL THE ABOVE RAPIDLY DECAYING FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SUPPORT FOR SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH 0-6KM MU CAPE
PROFILES NEARING 1K J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL FLAVOR OF
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH HIGHEST POPS EASTERN UPPER
FRIDAY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST SOME LOW CHANCY POPS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK NON-EXISTENT AT
THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DECAY ON THE 4TH...ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
FORCING IS NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH DESPITE THIS...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KICK OFF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INSTABILITY PROGS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING UPWARDS OF 1.5K J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE. NOT
BUYING IT...AS THESE SAME PROGS SUPPORT LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS.
THIS JUST SEEMS WAY OVERDONE...LIKELY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SUPPOSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
POOLING. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. MOST AREAS
WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. ALL IN ALL...A RATHER
PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): A WARM...SUN-FILLED END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MAIN SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS LOOK ONCE
AGAIN TO PASS NORTH...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A DECENT SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE UP
INTO OUR AREA. NICE SHARP H8-H7 THETA-E RIDGE NOTED...WITH PWAT
VALUES SURGING UP AND OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. GOTTA BELIEVE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS
CORRIDOR AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. LINE ITSELF
SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW...WITH LINGERING TIMING ISSUES FORCING A
MUCH TOO LONG PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. PER TRENDS...GUIDANCE STARTING
TO HONE IN ON A MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE....WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM UPPER TO LOWER MI TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LITTLE/NO RISK OF
RESTRICTIONS...OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG THIS MORNING. MBL HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

LIGHT WINDS...WITH LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED WINDS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER MI. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE SEEN FROM MIDDAY THRU MID EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ





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