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000
FXUS63 KAPX 280259
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1059 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOLDING OFF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND ATTENDING SHOWERS IN
THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
ONE REMAINING THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY CAUGHT UP WITHIN THE RESIDUAL INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH. THAT BATCH OF CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY FADING AND
PUSHING EASTWARD.

REST OF TONIGHT...HAVE TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
REMAINING INTERIOR CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY FADE AND FAN OUT
INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE JUST A NOTCH OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH MIGHT GET CYCLED BACK TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO PARTS OF THE
AREA. TOUGH CALL...BUT WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF HAVING INCREASING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
LATE (OFF THE LAKE) AS WELL AS NUDGING UP CLOUD COVER FOR PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

BIGGER FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK AND OR FOG INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED THAT IDEA IN SOME OF THE TAF
SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY. UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND DRAG LOWERING CLOUDS AND SOME
RAINFALL INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY AFTER THE CURRENT TAF 06Z END TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280259
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1059 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOLDING OFF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND ATTENDING SHOWERS IN
THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
ONE REMAINING THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY CAUGHT UP WITHIN THE RESIDUAL INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH. THAT BATCH OF CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY FADING AND
PUSHING EASTWARD.

REST OF TONIGHT...HAVE TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
REMAINING INTERIOR CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY FADE AND FAN OUT
INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE JUST A NOTCH OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH MIGHT GET CYCLED BACK TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO PARTS OF THE
AREA. TOUGH CALL...BUT WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF HAVING INCREASING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
LATE (OFF THE LAKE) AS WELL AS NUDGING UP CLOUD COVER FOR PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

BIGGER FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND POSSIBLE
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK AND OR FOG INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCORPORATED THAT IDEA IN SOME OF THE TAF
SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY. UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE IN THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND DRAG LOWERING CLOUDS AND SOME
RAINFALL INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR
MAINLY AFTER THE CURRENT TAF 06Z END TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 280148
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOLDING OFF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND ATTENDING SHOWERS IN
THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
ONE REMAINING THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY CAUGHT UP WITHIN THE RESIDUAL INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH. THAT BATCH OF CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY FADING AND
PUSHING EASTWARD.

REST OF TONIGHT...HAVE TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
REMAINING INTERIOR CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY FADE AND FAN OUT
INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE JUST A NOTCH OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH MIGHT GET CYCLED BACK TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO PARTS OF THE
AREA. TOUGH CALL...BUT WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF HAVING INCREASING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
LATE (OFF THE LAKE) AS WELL AS NUDGING UP CLOUD COVER FOR PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCT-BKN VFR CIGS STILL LINGERING OUT THERE BUT WILL QUICKLY FADE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BIGGER
FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW
FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280148
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
948 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOLDING OFF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND ATTENDING SHOWERS IN
THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
ONE REMAINING THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY CAUGHT UP WITHIN THE RESIDUAL INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH. THAT BATCH OF CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY FADING AND
PUSHING EASTWARD.

REST OF TONIGHT...HAVE TWEAKED SKY FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
REMAINING INTERIOR CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY FADE AND FAN OUT
INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...LOW
LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE JUST A NOTCH OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH MIGHT GET CYCLED BACK TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND
MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO PARTS OF THE
AREA. TOUGH CALL...BUT WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF HAVING INCREASING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
LATE (OFF THE LAKE) AS WELL AS NUDGING UP CLOUD COVER FOR PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCT-BKN VFR CIGS STILL LINGERING OUT THERE BUT WILL QUICKLY FADE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BIGGER
FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW
FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272217
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCT-BKN VFR CIGS STILL LINGERING OUT THERE BUT WILL QUICKLY FADE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BIGGER
FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW
FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272217
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCT-BKN VFR CIGS STILL LINGERING OUT THERE BUT WILL QUICKLY FADE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BIGGER
FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW
FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 272217
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCT-BKN VFR CIGS STILL LINGERING OUT THERE BUT WILL QUICKLY FADE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BIGGER
FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW
FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272217
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCT-BKN VFR CIGS STILL LINGERING OUT THERE BUT WILL QUICKLY FADE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BIGGER
FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW LEVEL S/SW
FLOW PICKS UP LATER TONIGHT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
SHOVED BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND MIGHT MANIFEST ITSELF AS AN
EXPANDING STRATUS DECK INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271854
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271854
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
254 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH LAST BIT OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH
MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  POCKET OF DRIER AIR RESIDES ACROSS
MICHIGAN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES/MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY STICK
AROUND NORTHEAST LOWER FOR A WHILE.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER.  MEANWHILE...A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH STILL MODEST
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...BUT CAN SEE
SOME 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WITH WEAK/MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES
OUT OF CANADA.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS PRESENT A CHALLENGE WITH REGARD TO
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THESE WAVES MAY /OR MAY NOT/ INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER.  A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE WAVES
SEPARATE...WHICH RESULTS IN THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTH
OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERN WAVE.  ON THE FLIP SIDE...A FEW OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS SHOW MORE PHASING AND BRING A "BEEFIER"
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HONESTLY...DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AS THERE JUST ISN/T ENOUGH CLEAR CONSENSUS EITHER WAY.
BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TAKES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AND SPOTTIER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.  RAIN WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH INITIAL RELATIVELY DRY
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  BEST RAIN CHANCES COME FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.  WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE M-
55 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SKINNY CAPE
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY
SOUTH/ GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT READINGS WILL HINGE ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE EVENTUAL RAIN TRENDS.

SUNDAY...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS.  STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HOW QUICKLY
UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.  BUT CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS PUSH LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FOLD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER THREAT EARLY OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT UPPER LVLS...A 500MB LOW
CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST
MONDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. THE PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDS ACRS
NRN MI THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C MONDAY
WARMING TO 20C THURSDAY)...FORCING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT BACKING WINDS TO A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
FOR SATURDAY.  HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271504
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...12Z APX SOUNDING STILL SHOWS
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900MB AS STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO HOLD
ON. GETTING SOME BREAKS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER/WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY THOUGH FILLING IN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS...EXPECT
THAT THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE TOWARD MORE THINNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND DRIER AIR ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IS MIXED DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE. TEMPERATURES ALREADY
GETTING ABOVE YESTERDAY`S HIGHS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER...EXPECTING
MORE 60S FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR CIGS THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK...WHICH WILL CONGEAL WITHIN LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN/NE LOWER. CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271504
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...12Z APX SOUNDING STILL SHOWS
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900MB AS STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO HOLD
ON. GETTING SOME BREAKS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER/WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY THOUGH FILLING IN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS...EXPECT
THAT THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE TOWARD MORE THINNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND DRIER AIR ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IS MIXED DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE. TEMPERATURES ALREADY
GETTING ABOVE YESTERDAY`S HIGHS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER...EXPECTING
MORE 60S FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR CIGS THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK...WHICH WILL CONGEAL WITHIN LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN/NE LOWER. CALM TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271050
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR CIGS THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK...WHICH WILL CONGEAL WITHIN LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN/NE LOWER. CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271050
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR CIGS THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK...WHICH WILL CONGEAL WITHIN LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN/NE LOWER. CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271050
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR CIGS THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK...WHICH WILL CONGEAL WITHIN LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN/NE LOWER. CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 271050
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR CIGS THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER
LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT TO A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK...WHICH WILL CONGEAL WITHIN LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN/NE LOWER. CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR AND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT DUE TO MIXING TODAY. UNTIL
THEN...STILL MOIST SFC/LOW LEVELS WITH CLEARING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND MVFR STRATUS
WHILE APN WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ALL FOG AND STRATUS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR RE-DEVELOPS AT APN...LIFTING TO VFR. LIGHT
WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES TO
START OFF THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR AND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT DUE TO MIXING TODAY. UNTIL
THEN...STILL MOIST SFC/LOW LEVELS WITH CLEARING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND MVFR STRATUS
WHILE APN WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ALL FOG AND STRATUS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR RE-DEVELOPS AT APN...LIFTING TO VFR. LIGHT
WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES TO
START OFF THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF TO THE WEST
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL...STILL CYCLONIC...NW FLOW IN NRN
MICHIGAN. WE HAD SEEN SOME CLEARING LAST EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE BL HAS RESULTED IN THE
REDEVELOPING STRATUS THAT IS EXPANDING BACK WESTWARD. NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IS COVERED IN LOW CLOUDS NOW. THIS HAS HALTED TEMPERATURES
DROPS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE CLOSEST RAINFALL
WAS WELL WEST ACROSS SD WHERE AN MCS HAS FIRED OFF IN RETURN FLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH FORCING APPLIED BY A LLJ AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE NRN ROCKIES.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PRETTY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH WEAKENING WINDS
GOING ANTICYCLONIC...HELPING TO TEAR AWAY THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS. ALSO...MIXING TODAY INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT
MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS WILL DEFINITELY BE
AROUND...BUT ULTIMATELY CONGEALING INTO THE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGENCE
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NRN/NE LOWER. THE CUMULUS WILL FADE AWAY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/NIGHTFALL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY. NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANCE IN ANY CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
INT HE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME SMALL HINTS IN THE DATA.
RATHER...WILL SEE SOME LIKELY INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH LIFTS INTO THE
MN/NE REGION LATE TONIGHT. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE WELL WEST
OF US.

HIGHS WARMER TODAY FINALLY! LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: THE PATTERN CHANGE TO A MUCH
MILDER (MAYBE EVEN EVENTUALLY HOT?) STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE THE REBOUND PROCESS. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...LOCKED IN PLACE BY EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SEMI-PERMANENT EAST
PACIFIC TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL WEST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEM.
REGIME DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MOSTLY A DRY ONE...ALTHOUGH STILL NEED TO
MONITOR EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASING SIGNALS
FOR WAVE INTERACTION AND PERHAPS A WETTER SYSTEM THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: AFTER A DRY/QUIET START TO FRIDAY...CHALLENGES GO UP/
CONFIDENCE TANKS HEADING INTO VERY LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND POTENTIAL WAVE INTERACTION (OR LACK THEREOF) BETWEEN
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAK WAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
CONSISTENCY IS TERRIBLE WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS...NOT A
SURPRISE WHEN DEALING WITH SUCH FICKLE WAVE INTERACTION. WILL SAY A
SOLID NUMBER OF GEFS KEEP THE WAVES SEPARATE...FORCING GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...WHICH MOSTLY
SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA (LEAVING LITTLE MOISTURE FOR WHAT`S
LEFT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE). ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME
DETERMINISTIC PROGS (E.G. 12Z ECMWF AND A GROWING NUMBER OF 00Z
GUIDANCE) SHOWING MUCH MORE PHASING...DRIVING A LEGITIMATE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE FORMER SOLUTION HAS MULTI-DAY RUNS VALIDATING IT...WHILE
THE LATTER IS A NEW SCENARIO THAT NEEDS PRECISE PHASING TO DRIVE IT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE LESS PHASED SCENARIO (AT LEAST FOR
NOW)...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT INPUT FROM THE MORE WRAPPED-UP AND
WETTER SOLUTIONS. WHAT`S THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FORECAST?
WELL...REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THAT WHICH WAS
INHERITED...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...LINGERING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE EQUATION...WITH EVEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS KEEPING NEARLY ALL INSTABILITY LOCKED UP WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON
THOSE RAIN TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP READINGS FOR NOW JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WHAT EVER IMPACTS US SATURDAY
SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST BY SUNDAY...ENDING ANY LINGERING RAIN THREAT.
REST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/ATTENDANT DEEP
LAYER SUBSIDENCE REALLY TAKES HOLD. THAT...HOWEVER...IS NOT THE
STORY. TEMPERATURES A FAR BIGGER HIGHLIGHT...WITH SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR A STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES KICKING OFF
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. H8 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS/NEAR
20C AND SAID SUBSIDENCE SURE SUPPORT STATISTICAL PROGS SHOWING HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES UP NEAR 90 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THESE READING
WOULD BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIMILAR READINGS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK!

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR AND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT DUE TO MIXING TODAY. UNTIL
THEN...STILL MOIST SFC/LOW LEVELS WITH CLEARING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND MVFR STRATUS
WHILE APN WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ALL FOG AND STRATUS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR RE-DEVELOPS AT APN...LIFTING TO VFR. LIGHT
WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES TO
START OFF THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO HEADLINES FOR AWHILE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING INTO
FRIDAY. ALL SPEEDS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND...SWITCHING WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND
BRINGING A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOW...BUT POSSIBLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270432
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1232 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO...WHAT TO DO WITH CLOUD COVER? PARTIAL CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK...AND LEELANAU TO MANISTEE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY RE-EXPANDING BEHIND
THIS CLEARING LINE...OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT (HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI)...WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASING 1000-850MB
WINDS (GRB WINDS 10KT OR LESS BELOW 850MB INVERSION). SO THE PUSH
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW WILL TEND TO SLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERCAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL
LOWER. DO NOT EXPECT PLACES W OF THERE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
CLEAR...AS AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MOIST BL COOLS.

HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS...INCREASE
IN THE EAST. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT IN NW LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR AND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT DUE TO MIXING TODAY. UNTIL
THEN...STILL MOIST SFC/LOW LEVELS WITH CLEARING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND MVFR STRATUS
WHILE APN WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ALL FOG AND STRATUS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR RE-DEVELOPS AT APN...LIFTING TO VFR. LIGHT
WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES TO
START OFF THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270432
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1232 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO...WHAT TO DO WITH CLOUD COVER? PARTIAL CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK...AND LEELANAU TO MANISTEE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY RE-EXPANDING BEHIND
THIS CLEARING LINE...OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT (HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI)...WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASING 1000-850MB
WINDS (GRB WINDS 10KT OR LESS BELOW 850MB INVERSION). SO THE PUSH
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW WILL TEND TO SLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERCAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL
LOWER. DO NOT EXPECT PLACES W OF THERE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
CLEAR...AS AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MOIST BL COOLS.

HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS...INCREASE
IN THE EAST. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT IN NW LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR AND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT DUE TO MIXING TODAY. UNTIL
THEN...STILL MOIST SFC/LOW LEVELS WITH CLEARING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND MVFR STRATUS
WHILE APN WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ALL FOG AND STRATUS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR RE-DEVELOPS AT APN...LIFTING TO VFR. LIGHT
WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES TO
START OFF THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 270432
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1232 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO...WHAT TO DO WITH CLOUD COVER? PARTIAL CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK...AND LEELANAU TO MANISTEE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY RE-EXPANDING BEHIND
THIS CLEARING LINE...OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT (HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI)...WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASING 1000-850MB
WINDS (GRB WINDS 10KT OR LESS BELOW 850MB INVERSION). SO THE PUSH
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW WILL TEND TO SLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERCAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL
LOWER. DO NOT EXPECT PLACES W OF THERE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
CLEAR...AS AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MOIST BL COOLS.

HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS...INCREASE
IN THE EAST. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT IN NW LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...MVFR AND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN CLEARING...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT DUE TO MIXING TODAY. UNTIL
THEN...STILL MOIST SFC/LOW LEVELS WITH CLEARING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND MVFR STRATUS
WHILE APN WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. ALL FOG AND STRATUS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A
PERIOD OF BROKEN MVFR RE-DEVELOPS AT APN...LIFTING TO VFR. LIGHT
WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SKIES TO
START OFF THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
943 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO...WHAT TO DO WITH CLOUD COVER? PARTIAL CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK...AND LEELANAU TO MANISTEE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY RE-EXPANDING BEHIND
THIS CLEARING LINE...OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT (HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI)...WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASING 1000-850MB
WINDS (GRB WINDS 10KT OR LESS BELOW 850MB INVERSION). SO THE PUSH
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW WILL TEND TO SLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERCAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL
LOWER. DO NOT EXPECT PLACES W OF THERE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
CLEAR...AS AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MOIST BL COOLS.

HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS...INCREASE
IN THE EAST. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT IN NW LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MVFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL TREND VFR OVERNIGHT...
THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...GENERATING MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. HOWEVER...SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
943 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO...WHAT TO DO WITH CLOUD COVER? PARTIAL CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK...AND LEELANAU TO MANISTEE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY RE-EXPANDING BEHIND
THIS CLEARING LINE...OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT (HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI)...WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASING 1000-850MB
WINDS (GRB WINDS 10KT OR LESS BELOW 850MB INVERSION). SO THE PUSH
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW WILL TEND TO SLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERCAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL
LOWER. DO NOT EXPECT PLACES W OF THERE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
CLEAR...AS AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MOIST BL COOLS.

HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS...INCREASE
IN THE EAST. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT IN NW LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MVFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL TREND VFR OVERNIGHT...
THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...GENERATING MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. HOWEVER...SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270143
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
943 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO...WHAT TO DO WITH CLOUD COVER? PARTIAL CLEARING HAS WORKED
INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK...AND LEELANAU TO MANISTEE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY RE-EXPANDING BEHIND
THIS CLEARING LINE...OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI AND CENTRAL UPPER
MI. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT (HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI)...WITH SUBSEQUENT DECREASING 1000-850MB
WINDS (GRB WINDS 10KT OR LESS BELOW 850MB INVERSION). SO THE PUSH
OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW WILL TEND TO SLOW. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM OVERCAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND INTO AT LEAST N CENTRAL
LOWER. DO NOT EXPECT PLACES W OF THERE WILL STAY COMPLETELY
CLEAR...AS AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE
MOIST BL COOLS.

HAVE TENDED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS...INCREASE
IN THE EAST. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT IN NW LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MVFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL TREND VFR OVERNIGHT...
THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...GENERATING MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. HOWEVER...SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262307
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
707 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MVFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL TREND VFR OVERNIGHT...
THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...GENERATING MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. HOWEVER...SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262307
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
707 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MVFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL TREND VFR OVERNIGHT...
THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...GENERATING MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. HOWEVER...SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262307
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
707 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MVFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL TREND VFR OVERNIGHT...
THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...GENERATING MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. HOWEVER...SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262307
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
707 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MVFR CONDS ACRS NRN MI TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL TREND VFR OVERNIGHT...
THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...GENERATING MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PD. HOWEVER...SOME IFR CIGS AND VSBY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262000
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE TWO FOLD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS,
WILL BE DEPARTING, AND WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE EVENING. DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS IN WISCONSIN AND W
UPPER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER, BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE WON`T GET A CHANCE TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND THAT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER 13Z/THURS THAT CIGS, VSBYS WILL COME
UP AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 262000
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: END OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN, AND FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES.

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW IS EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS PULLING THE
MOISTURE AND WINDS TO THE EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAVE
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. MAIN
CONCERN THOUGH IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (<850 MB) WILL
SET UP AS FOG OR STRATUS, OR WILL THERE STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX
OUT THE MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...AS NOTED, THE MOISTURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH THE
LAST FEW FRAMES OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS,
AND IS TURNING INTO DIURNAL CU IN A LINE THAT RUNS FROM ABOUT KSAW
TO KISW TO KDBQ. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE BANDS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER N LAKE MICHIGAN THAT STRETCH INTO NW LOWER IN THE NNW
FLOW AREAS (AROUND TVC, CAD, FKS, AND MBL). PROBLEM THAT WE
TYPICALLY RUN INTO WITH LAKE EFFECT AND RETREATING MOISTURE, IS THAT
THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS NOT ALL MIXED OUT BEFORE NIGHT
FALL, WILL COALESCE INTO STRATUS/STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SLOWED
THINK THAT THE MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO LEAVE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE THE
CLOUDS SLOW TO MOVE OUT, AND IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MOVE OUT, THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC, ESPECIALLY IN NE
LOWER FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. SO WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...WARMER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS FIXED
AROUND THE NRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...COURTESY
OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM...PRONOUNCED
RIDGE AXIS RUNS UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE HAS PICKED UP A PIECE OF
(CONVECTIVELY INDUCED) SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...DRAGGING IT UP THROUGH UTAH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HERE AT HOME...CUTOFF LOW IS SLOWLY LOOSING IT/S GRIP ON
THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY NOSING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN LAKES.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AIDED BY A
COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND DUMP OF COLD AIR GETTING FORCED
DOWN FROM ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ULTIMATELY GET SHOVED THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO A PATTERN SHIFT
BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS DOES APPEAR IN THE MAKING TO KICK OFF
THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE A DECENT DAY ON TAP
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR/HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE STILL DEALING WITH FOG/STRATUS
ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING THAT EITHER LINGERS OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER
MICHIGAN ON THE FRINGES OF OUR DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS
HAVE BEEFED UP SKY COVER JUST A BIT THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY...WARMER AIR/BETTER MIXING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER
TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH HIGHS HITTING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STILL SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS WE WRAP-UP THE
WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE OVER
UTAH TODAY STILL LOOKING TO GET CYCLED THROUGH PLAINS AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NRN STREAM PHASING WITH A
WEAKER WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
STRONGER WAVE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES (PERHAPS AN MCS) SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/LOWER LAKES REGION...WHILE SOME MODEST MOISTURE
GETS STRUNG UP INTO NRN MICHIGAN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM COLD
FRONT. BOTTOM LINE...I/M NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSED WITH OUR RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES CERTAINLY
APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PHASED
SYSTEM SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY NRN MICH WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE PD. WEAK
SURFACE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING SEASONAL TEMPS ACRS NRN
MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK WILL
STRENGTHEN A RIDGE AND WARM MID LVLS (850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM 12C
SUNDAY TO 18C WED)OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE TWO FOLD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS,
WILL BE DEPARTING, AND WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE EVENING. DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS IN WISCONSIN AND W
UPPER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER, BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE WON`T GET A CHANCE TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND THAT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER 13Z/THURS THAT CIGS, VSBYS WILL COME
UP AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO GUST IN WHITEFISH
BAY AND IN ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE HURON FROM BOIS BLANC ISLAND TO
MIDDLE ISLAND NORTH OF ALPENA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING SO THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DROP OFF BY 00Z AND 04Z RESPECTIVELY. THINK THAT THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE OPEN LAKES WILL KEEP FOG OUT, BUT THAT SOME
AREAS LIKE THE SAINT MARY`S RIVER AND GT TRAVERSE BAY, WHICH ARE
SOMEWHAT SURROUNDED BY LAND, WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED, THAT PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING, UNTIL THE DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH TO MIX
OUT THE FOG. THE FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ST. MARY`S RIVER
THROUGH THE A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS SETTLE AND SOME
COOL AIR DRAINS INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE HURON AND ON WHITEFISH BAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE TWO FOLD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS,
WILL BE DEPARTING, AND WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE EVENING. DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS IN WISCONSIN AND W
UPPER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER, BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE WON`T GET A CHANCE TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND THAT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER 13Z/THURS THAT CIGS, VSBYS WILL COME
UP AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE TWO FOLD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS,
WILL BE DEPARTING, AND WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE EVENING. DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS IN WISCONSIN AND W
UPPER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER, BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE WON`T GET A CHANCE TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND THAT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER 13Z/THURS THAT CIGS, VSBYS WILL COME
UP AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261821
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN ARE TWO FOLD, LAKE EFFECT RAIN ENDING, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT OUR RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS,
WILL BE DEPARTING, AND WE WILL SEE SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT INTO
THE EVENING. DRY AIR IS DIMINISHING THE CLOUDS IN WISCONSIN AND W
UPPER. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER, BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY, WILL EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE WON`T GET A CHANCE TO MIX OUT COMPLETELY AND THAT FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE AS THE
WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER 13Z/THURS THAT CIGS, VSBYS WILL COME
UP AND EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261700
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DECIDED A QUICK UPDATE IS IN ORDER AS THE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION QUICKLY, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD MASS. THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE CLOUD STREETS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STRIPPED OUT. THE GOING FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD AT THIS POINT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE ONLY IN
THE FORECASTED AREA, WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY 19Z OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261408
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261408
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261408
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STRIP OUT, LEAVING ONLY THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, AS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. LE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE DRIZZLE THAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE DRIER SFC AIR GETS INTO THE REGION. ONLY
THING OF NOTE IS THE DIURNAL CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
NEAR ISLE ROYALE, WHICH IF THAT MOISTURE HOLDS UP WITHOUT GETTING
MIXED OUT, COULD CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 261047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...MVFR TODAY WITH EARLIER CLEARING TONIGHT?...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AT 4-5KFT. ALONG WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. THE MVFR DECK IS LIKELY TO
LIFT INTO A LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AND MOISTURE THINS. A GRADUAL CLEARING
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MAINLY THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS...BUT
NOW THERE ARE SIGNS FOR CLEARING REACHING APN OVERNIGHT. STILL
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING...WILL LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF FOG...AND/OR POSSIBLE STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...SOLID MVFR FOR THE DAY BUT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF
MVFR CLOUDS...AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TRY AND LIFT INTO LOW END VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE APN WILL REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH ALL OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS WHILE WINDS GO CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...SOLID MVFR FOR THE DAY BUT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF
MVFR CLOUDS...AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TRY AND LIFT INTO LOW END VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE APN WILL REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH ALL OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS WHILE WINDS GO CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260706
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
306 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNE ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC NW FLOW...A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY (16C DELTA-T)...CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWING MORE
BANDED RETURNS NOW...AS THE INSTABILITY IS MORE SHALLOW. ALSO...00Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB...WHICH IS
TRAPPING ALL LOW CLOUDS/ DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS NOT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THIS RAIN...AS THE STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ALL TO OUR NE NOW...NEARER THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE POCKETS OF ENHANCED MID CLOUD DRIFTING
IN FROM TIME TO TIME. QUITE THE DREARY MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
JUST EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A ZONE WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE THERE IS SOME
WAA AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER. TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE
50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EAST MORE QUICKLY
TODAY...TAKING ALL OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ALONG FOR
THE RIDE. THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DO THE SAME...BUT A A
MUCH SLOWER PACE. WE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO SOME SMALL DEGREE
TODAY...BUT WE...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ARE GOING TO REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER THE INVERSION WHICH WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE DAY. AND
DESPITE MODIFYING THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...WE ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE
THE MAGICAL 13C DELTA-T TO AID IN GOOD HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WONDERFUL PARTNERS IN CRIME WILL
BE FOR CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THIS IS LIKELY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC CLOUD
BEARING WINDS ARRIVE WITH SOME SLIGHT WAA (LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA...NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
NW LOWER COASTLINE). HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THIS WHOLE CLEARING
PROCESS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING TO SOME
DEGREE WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE STRATUS/CLOUDS. AM
EXPECTING TO SEE THE CLEARING SLOWING THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
PORTIONS OF NE LOWER STAYING IN THE CLOUD ALL NIGHT. WILL KEEP IT
CLOUDY LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER 24 HRS OF MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST...LOWER 60S DOWNSLOPING REGIMES
OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUGH NOT KNOWING THE EXACT
CLEARING SCENARIO. DO EXPECT CHILLIER READINGS IN WESTERN LOW LYING
AREAS THOUGH WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO INVADING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. CAN SEE MID AND UPPER 40S THERE...WITH MOST ALL OTHER
AREAS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LET THE WARM-UP BEGIN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THE END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK...WITH
CURRENT UNWELCOME TROUGHING OPENING UP AND PUSHING EAST....ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO TAKE HOLD.
AND REALLY GOOD NEWS FOR ALL THE WARM WEATHER FANS...INTRA/INTER
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL CONTINUITY IS EXCELLENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST/START OF SEPTEMBER (POTENTIALLY LONGER?) AS THE FLOW REGIME
TAKES ON AN WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFIGURATION.
WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THAT TAKES US...BUT THE PATTERN BEING
ADVERTISED IS ONE NOT SEEN AROUND THESE PARTS IN QUITE A WHILE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND SHOWER POTENTIAL.

DETAILS: A WELL EARNED BREAK FROM THE INCLEMENT WEATHER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGHING QUICKLY YIELDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE NOT EXTREME...AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE SIGNFICANT...SPURRED ALONG BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE (ANY LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY
MIX OUT). ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL NO DOUBT FEEL QUITE WARM WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEK.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT IN
EJECTING A SOUTHWESTERN WAVE...ADVANCING IT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WEAK ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL...REALLY HARD TO BUY SOME OF THE WET
LOOKING PROGS...WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATION NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MIGHT CENTER ITSELF BETWEEN DECAYING FRONT AND MOISTURE ROBBING
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT WESTERN WAVE. LIKE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...NOT
SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT SIMPLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE
FROM INHERITED JUST CHANCY POP WORDING. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
FINE-TUNE THIS PERIOD...AND REALLY FEEL THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF CHANGES WITH GUIDANCE PROGS IN THE COMING DAYS.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AIDING THE WARMING CAUSE...RESULTING IN READINGS JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH THAT WHOLE WESTERN
WAVE THING....WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THOSE TEMPERATURES...WITH THAT EARLIER TALKED
ABOUT PATTERN REALIGNMENT CONTINUING TO MATURE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ANY COOL-DOWN FROM CLOUDS/SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTING HIGHS UP NEAR
80 SUNDAY...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. AS
MENTIONED...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HAVE SOME STAYING POWER...WITH
POSSIBLE REINFORCEMENT OF PACIFIC BLOCKING PATTERN VIA RECURVING
REMNANTS OF FAR WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. LATEST CPC 6 TO 14
DAY TEMPERATURE GRAPHICS CONCUR...SHOWING VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...SOLID MVFR FOR THE DAY BUT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF
MVFR CLOUDS...AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TRY AND LIFT INTO LOW END VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE APN WILL REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH ALL OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS WHILE WINDS GO CALM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE
EXITING EAST AND RETURNING A WARMING SOUTHERLY WIND BY FRIDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE
PRESQUE ISLE REGION OF NRN LAKE HURON...DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25 KTS. THESE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE WIND/WAVES ISSUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY THOUGH.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260437
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1237 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...SOLID MVFR FOR THE DAY BUT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF
MVFR CLOUDS...AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TRY AND LIFT INTO LOW END VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE APN WILL REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH ALL OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS WHILE WINDS GO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260437
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1237 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...SOLID MVFR FOR THE DAY BUT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF
MVFR CLOUDS...AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TRY AND LIFT INTO LOW END VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE APN WILL REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH ALL OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS WHILE WINDS GO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260437
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1237 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...SOLID MVFR FOR THE DAY BUT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF
MVFR CLOUDS...AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TRY AND LIFT INTO LOW END VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE APN WILL REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH ALL OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS WHILE WINDS GO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260437
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1237 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...SOLID MVFR FOR THE DAY BUT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY THROUGH QUEBEC TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS US LATE TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOLID DECK OF
MVFR CLOUDS...AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. CIGS WILL TRY AND LIFT INTO LOW END VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE APN WILL REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH ALL OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS WHILE WINDS GO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260145
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260145
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260145
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 260145
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LOCATIONS OF BETTER PRECIP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS... REFLECTING THE ONGOING WNW/NW FLOW WE STILL HAVE VS THE
NNW FLOW WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE. PRECIP HAS BEEN ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...THOUGH INCREASING
ECHOES BETWEEN CVX AND BEAVER ISL SUGGEST THAT IS ABOUT TO REVERSE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...STEADY AS SHE GOES...WITH ANOTHER COOL/DAMP
NIGHT ON TAP. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 252345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 252345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO WED MORNING (IFR AT TIMES TVC)...THEN
IMPROVING.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE LOW MOVES
OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS. BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT HERE. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-DZ. IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER PRECIP FROM TIME-TO-TIME...WITH TVC THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

NW WINDS IN THE 5-12KT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN PATTERN, VERY REMINISCENT OF THE LES
PATTERNS THAT WE SEE IN THE FALL/WINTER TIME. MOST OF THE DAY AT
THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS
OF MVFR/IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
(~5000FT) GENERALLY IN A NW DIRECTION AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +5C TO +6C THROUGH THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS WELL AS, RAIN SHOWERS. THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK INTO N LOWER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251947
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.
FORECAST CHALLENGE: THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE EFFECT(!) RAIN.

OVERVIEW...A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW HAS MOISTURE AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH MOISTURE STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MINNESOTA. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WIND IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NW FLOW AREAS, BUT OPPOSED TO LES
WITH 20:1 RATIOS, THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NE INTO QUEBEC/JAMES BAY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS WILL PULL THE UPPER MOISTURE (700-500 MB LAYER) TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WON`T DO MUCH TO THE
PREVAILING 1000-850 MB PATTERN AS THE NW WIND, 80-90% RH IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C TO +6C WILL
CONTINUE. SO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SEMI-
ORGANIZED BANDS OF OPEN CELLULAR RAINS SHOWERS TO A MORE ORGANIZED
BANDED STRUCTURE AFTER THE SUN SETS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS
LOST. GOT THE BASIC IDEA OF THE RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SLOWLY
MOVING FROM THE WNW FLOW PATTERN OF EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO A NW
PATTERN TO ALMOST A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...SUMMER NOT DONE JUST YET...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...DIPPING INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING BLOCKING HIGH NEAR 165W
(POSSIBLY AIDED BY REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ATSANI IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC). A COUPLE OF DEEP CUTOFF LOWS NOTED ACROSS NOAM.
ONE FAIRLY DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS MAKING IT/S WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
NOAM...AND OF COURSE ANOTHER DEEP CUTOFF SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. INTERVENING RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE MONSOON CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS
AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SPURRED ON BY A COUPLE STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY AND ATTENDING COLD
AIR GETTING FORCED DOWN THROUGH ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS IN
TURN WILL PUSH RIDGING/MUCH WARMER AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
ULTIMATELY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS/GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CUTOFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY OPEN AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS. SO...SUMMER IS NOT DONE
YET AND IN FACT WE COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS
(BACK INTO THE 80S?) HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE COOL/
SHOWERY WEATHER. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SRN END OF
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OPEN AND MOVE
INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. NW/NNW CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW GRADUALLY LOSING IT/S GRIP THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING TONIGHT AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS SUGGESTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT AS WE KNOW...WHEN IT
COMES TO LAKE EFFECT...WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT END...ADD ANOTHER 6
TO 12 HOURS TO THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS...WITH INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTH...WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
AND FOR JUST WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOCUSED IN THOSE NNW LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. STILL A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON TAP THANKS TO A DAYTIME HEATING
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH OF DRY AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE REALIZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER BULLISH IN HOLDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) BACK ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH COOL LOW LEVEL AIR AND A MODEST N/NW LAKE COMPONENT
IN PLAY. THIS WILL OF COURSE HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS. IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS CAN CLEAR OUT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE SEE
SOME LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
TEMPS THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL BE AN ISSUE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE NICEST WEATHER DAY/NIGHT THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR FINALLY TAKE CHARGE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. ENJOY.

FRIDAY...SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE TO WRAP
UP THE WORK WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES LATCH ONTO A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE DESERT SW TODAY...PULL IT OVER TOP THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE...AND INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...THIS MIGHT PUSH SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. BUT...THAT/S PUTTING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETTING THAT RIGHT ON AND WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO SEE HOW IT GOES. INHERITED SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT THIS POINT. BUT
OTHERWISE...WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY IS A BETTER CERTAINTY WITH
HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES WITH WESTERN TROUGHING LEADING TO
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS SETUP
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES SNEAKING UP HERE DURING THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS WELL YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL A WARM SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FROM DAYS 3 TO 10 INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN PATTERN, VERY REMINISCENT OF THE LES
PATTERNS THAT WE SEE IN THE FALL/WINTER TIME. MOST OF THE DAY AT
THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS
OF MVFR/IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
(~5000FT) GENERALLY IN A NW DIRECTION AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +5C TO +6C THROUGH THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS WELL AS, RAIN SHOWERS. THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK INTO N LOWER.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PMEDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND WAVES AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NE. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIFT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO LAKE HURON. WILL EXPECT THAT THE WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE HURON SIDE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY AS WELL. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO EAST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251815
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED MORE INTO N LOWER, AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
HAS MOVED OUT OF E UPPER, PER CANADIAN AND US RADARS. CURRENTLY,
HAVE A NW TO WNW FLOW IDEA IN THE LAKE EFFECT ZONES. LOOKS LIKE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THAT THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS
CONFIGURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR
RETURNS, SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, IN BANDS, ACROSS NW AND NC
LOWER. REDUCED THE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE CURRENT TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, HAS ROTATED
OUT OF E UPPER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMALIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO
KICK OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN PATTERN, VERY REMINISCENT OF THE LES
PATTERNS THAT WE SEE IN THE FALL/WINTER TIME. MOST OF THE DAY AT
THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS
OF MVFR/IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
(~5000FT) GENERALLY IN A NW DIRECTION AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +5C TO +6C THROUGH THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS WELL AS, RAIN SHOWERS. THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK INTO N LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251815
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED MORE INTO N LOWER, AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
HAS MOVED OUT OF E UPPER, PER CANADIAN AND US RADARS. CURRENTLY,
HAVE A NW TO WNW FLOW IDEA IN THE LAKE EFFECT ZONES. LOOKS LIKE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THAT THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS
CONFIGURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR
RETURNS, SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, IN BANDS, ACROSS NW AND NC
LOWER. REDUCED THE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE CURRENT TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, HAS ROTATED
OUT OF E UPPER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMALIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO
KICK OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN PATTERN, VERY REMINISCENT OF THE LES
PATTERNS THAT WE SEE IN THE FALL/WINTER TIME. MOST OF THE DAY AT
THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS
OF MVFR/IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
(~5000FT) GENERALLY IN A NW DIRECTION AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +5C TO +6C THROUGH THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS WELL AS, RAIN SHOWERS. THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK INTO N LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251815
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED MORE INTO N LOWER, AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
HAS MOVED OUT OF E UPPER, PER CANADIAN AND US RADARS. CURRENTLY,
HAVE A NW TO WNW FLOW IDEA IN THE LAKE EFFECT ZONES. LOOKS LIKE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THAT THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS
CONFIGURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR
RETURNS, SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, IN BANDS, ACROSS NW AND NC
LOWER. REDUCED THE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE CURRENT TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, HAS ROTATED
OUT OF E UPPER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMALIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO
KICK OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN PATTERN, VERY REMINISCENT OF THE LES
PATTERNS THAT WE SEE IN THE FALL/WINTER TIME. MOST OF THE DAY AT
THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS
OF MVFR/IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
(~5000FT) GENERALLY IN A NW DIRECTION AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +5C TO +6C THROUGH THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS WELL AS, RAIN SHOWERS. THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK INTO N LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251815
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED MORE INTO N LOWER, AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
HAS MOVED OUT OF E UPPER, PER CANADIAN AND US RADARS. CURRENTLY,
HAVE A NW TO WNW FLOW IDEA IN THE LAKE EFFECT ZONES. LOOKS LIKE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THAT THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS
CONFIGURATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR
RETURNS, SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, IN BANDS, ACROSS NW AND NC
LOWER. REDUCED THE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE CURRENT TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, HAS ROTATED
OUT OF E UPPER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMALIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO
KICK OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WITH THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN PATTERN, VERY REMINISCENT OF THE LES
PATTERNS THAT WE SEE IN THE FALL/WINTER TIME. MOST OF THE DAY AT
THE TAF SITES HAVE BEEN VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS
OF MVFR/IFR FOR SHORT PERIODS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB
(~5000FT) GENERALLY IN A NW DIRECTION AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +5C TO +6C THROUGH THAT 24 HOUR PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS WELL AS, RAIN SHOWERS. THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK INTO N LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251401
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR
RETURNS, SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, IN BANDS, ACROSS NW AND NC
LOWER. REDUCED THE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE CURRENT TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, HAS ROTATED
OUT OF E UPPER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMALIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO
KICK OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS/DRIZZLE TO
MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
OUT OF THE NW INTO TONIGHT...WHILE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR
MOST ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY OVC SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251401
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE RADAR
RETURNS, SHOWING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, IN BANDS, ACROSS NW AND NC
LOWER. REDUCED THE POPS IN E UPPER AS THE CURRENT TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR, HAS ROTATED
OUT OF E UPPER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMALIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO
KICK OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS/DRIZZLE TO
MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
OUT OF THE NW INTO TONIGHT...WHILE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR
MOST ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY OVC SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251007
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
607 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMOLIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMOLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS/DRIZZLE TO
MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
OUT OF THE NW INTO TONIGHT...WHILE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR
MOST ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY OVC SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 251007
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
607 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMOLIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMOLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS/DRIZZLE TO
MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
OUT OF THE NW INTO TONIGHT...WHILE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR
MOST ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY OVC SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 251007
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
607 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMOLIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMOLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS/DRIZZLE TO
MAINLY NW LOWER. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
OUT OF THE NW INTO TONIGHT...WHILE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR FOR
MOST ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY OVC SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 250756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMOLIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMOLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS TO MAINLY
NW LOWER. THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER INTO APN VIA
SFC TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH AROUND MID DAY TODAY...ENHANCING THE
RAINS...AND ALSO SWINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS NW LOWER TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY...ALTHOUGH RAINS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
DRIZZLY IN NATURE...AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS ARE
STARTING TO CRASH...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE
OVC MVFR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER A FEW
HOURS/TOWARD DAYBREAK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 250756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMOLIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMOLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS TO MAINLY
NW LOWER. THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER INTO APN VIA
SFC TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH AROUND MID DAY TODAY...ENHANCING THE
RAINS...AND ALSO SWINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS NW LOWER TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY...ALTHOUGH RAINS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
DRIZZLY IN NATURE...AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS ARE
STARTING TO CRASH...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE
OVC MVFR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER A FEW
HOURS/TOWARD DAYBREAK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 250756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMOLIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMOLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS TO MAINLY
NW LOWER. THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER INTO APN VIA
SFC TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH AROUND MID DAY TODAY...ENHANCING THE
RAINS...AND ALSO SWINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS NW LOWER TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY...ALTHOUGH RAINS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
DRIZZLY IN NATURE...AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS ARE
STARTING TO CRASH...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE
OVC MVFR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER A FEW
HOURS/TOWARD DAYBREAK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 250756
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN/DRIFT EAST
OVER ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND IT`S PERIPHERY. THESE
ARE ALL SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS. WE
ARE NOW WATCHING ONE OF THESE WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WHICH HAD
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. (NOW 3C H8 AIR OVER
THE LAKES RESULTING IN DELTA T`S OF ~18C). THE BEST RAIN SHOWERS
WERE FOCUSED OVER A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH GAYLORD...AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
SAME SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THAT IT MAY BE AWHILE BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH/WAVE ARRIVES...SEEN JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THAT
SAID...THERE WERE LITERALLY NO BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WELL
UPSTREAM...BACK TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GOES
ANTICYCLONIC...AND WHERE CLOUD BEARING WINDS HAVE TURNED SRLY WITH
SLIGHT WAA. AREA SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS CLOUD SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES WERE CHILLY IN THE 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAKING UP
SHOP IN FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT. THE COLDEST H8 AIR IS OVER NRN MICHIGAN ATTM...AND EVEN
THOUGH WE DO MODERATE H8 TEMPS INTO THE 4-6C RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS. THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
WILL BE VEERING NW...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW...SWINGS IT`S SFC TROUGH INTO THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO REAL FORCING WITH THIS...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AN UPTICK IN THE LAKE EFFECT...AND MAYBE A LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE CAN PENETRATE NE LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME. WHILE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OUR
LOW LEVEL CLOUD BEARING WINDS WILL STAY WEAKLY CYCLONIC...AND SLIGHT
WARMING ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LOCK IN AN OVERCAST WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS NOT ESCAPING THE 50S MOST AREAS...JUST DOWNSLOPING REGIMES OF
NE LOWER SEEING THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT MAYBE AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S...BUT MAINLY 50S. VERY MINIMAL DIURNAL SWING.
CHILLY!...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS TODAY AGAIN GUSTY...16 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CURRENT OVERHEAD
UNBELIEVABLY COLD (NEAR RECORD SETTING FOR SOME) TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST AND GRADUALLY OPEN UP. THIS WILL ALLOW STEADILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS COLD ANOMOLIES ARE LOST AND MOISTURE
PROFILES THIN. ABOVE SETS THE STAGE FOR AN UPCOMING WEEKEND MUCH
MORE SUMMER-LIKE (OR MAYBE BETTER PUT...ABOUT AS IT SHOULD BE
HEADING THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ADDRESSING ANY LINGERING SHOWER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WHILE STILL NOT EXACTLY AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BETTER THAN THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SLOW
TO DEPART TROUGHING...COLDEST ANOMOLIES WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO REALLY SHRINK THROUGH THE DAY AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WOULD STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO KICK
OFF A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE CROSS SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE
CLEARING TAKING SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS IS NOT USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN DEALING WITH THE LAKES AND THESE DEEP TROUGHS...MULTI-
PERIOD GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING. MUCH LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WILL CAUTIOUSLY TREND TOWARD THIS MORE CLEAR
IDEA. CLEARING WILL BRING ABOUT ITS OWN ISSUES...WITH WET
GROUND/COOL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR THOSE TEMPERATURES...IF WE DO INDEED
CLEAR...WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 40S WILL BE EASILY ATTAINABLE
AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

IMPROVEMENT KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RIGHT OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF SUN AND SIMPLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURE REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO
PINWHEEL THROUGH THE AREA TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER OVERALL...AND WITH LESS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. NOT SAYING IT WON`T RAIN...BUT GOING TO DEFINITELY TREND
THE FORECAST TO THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW..."HIGHEST" ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING. THREAT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A DRY END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.

MUCH MORE CONFIDENT ON A MUCH MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
GROWING SUPPORT FOR TEMPS TO EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...STILL GUSTY AND COOL WITH LAKE EFFECT RAINS...

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAINS TO MAINLY
NW LOWER. THESE RAINS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER INTO APN VIA
SFC TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH AROUND MID DAY TODAY...ENHANCING THE
RAINS...AND ALSO SWINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS NW LOWER TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY...ALTHOUGH RAINS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
DRIZZLY IN NATURE...AND MINOR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS ARE
STARTING TO CRASH...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE
OVC MVFR FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER A FEW
HOURS/TOWARD DAYBREAK.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

STILL MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE LAKES. COLD GUSTY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WHITEFISH BAY THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS LAKE HURON
LATER TODAY. WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR SEVERAL NEARSHORES TONIGHT...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIFTS NE...BUT WINDS/WAVES WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH
TUESDAY. MAY EVEN HAVE TO ASSESS A NEED FOR CONTINUES ADVISORIES
FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS OF THE NE
LOWER COASTLINE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





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