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000
FXUS63 KAPX 200723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 200723
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...DRIZZLE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: DRIZZLE.

CURRENTLY, THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS TRAILING INTO EASTERN IOWA. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REPORTING DRIZZLE. SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AS WELL, WHICH PUTS THEM MAINLY IN
NE LOWER.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OUT OVER LAKE HURON, AND THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SFC TO ABOUT 850 MB OR SO, WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS VEER TOWARD
THE N OR NNE OVERNIGHT, THE 850-700 MB LAYER RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF,
MAINLY ACROSS C/E UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE OF NW
LOWER. SO THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST 12Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR NE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...IMPROVING WEATHER AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE.

UPPER LOW THAT STARTS OUT TUESDAY JUST EAST OF THE THUMB WILL DIG
SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SKINNY 500MB RIDGING
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THRU MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINLY DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARMER WX.
MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE SLIDE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY THERE ISN/T MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN
THE LONG TERM.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS THE DAY NEAR ROCHESTER NY...AND ENDS IT
OFF THE NJ COAST. RIDGING THAT BEGINS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY DRIFTS
TO EASTERN WI/EASTERN SUPERIOR. SUB-850MB STILL HAS SOME CYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO START THE DAY. BUT BY EARLY EVENING ONLY SE SECTIONS
ARE HANGING ONTO A TOUCH OF THAT. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START THE
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...AND PROBABLY STILL WANT TO
HANG ONTO A STRAY SPRINKLE IN NE LOWER MI EARLY ON. HOWEVER...MUCH
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NNE DURING THE DAY. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL
BUST OUT INTO SUNSHINE BY NOON...NW AND N CENTRAL LOWER WILL FOLLOW
DURING THE PM...AND NE LOWER TOWARD EVENING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. SO TEMPS WON/T EXACTLY
SKYROCKET EVEN WITH THE SUN MAKING AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MI. WILL LEAN A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS...GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
MINS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WILL
RETREAT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST...AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE A BIT AGAIN ON
WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTROL MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE A NOREASTER
MAKES SLOW PROGRESS UP THE EAST COAST. FAST WESTERLIES ARE IN PLACE
ALONG THE US/CANADA...AND A SERIES OF MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN. THESE WON/T BE POSITION TO DO MUCH TO US AS
FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. ONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THU INTO FRIDAY.
(HOPEFULLY THIS WILL NOT DISRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON.) NO NEED FOR A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE WEEKEND...ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NE
STATES AND EJECTING THE NOREASTER WILL ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT WORST. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR CLIMO THU...AND ABOVE THAT INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLACKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
N LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SHORE ALONG US-2. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
10Z, AND LET IT DROP THEN. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SFC LOW. TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THE SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 200345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 200345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS VERY
LATE TONIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THRU MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W TO EAST ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TO DRIZZLE ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 192018
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 192018
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
RAIN LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO
WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS. A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING TOWARD THE REGION.
FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN AND (COUPLED WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION) DRIVING TONIGHTS BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE REGION. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS NOW DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OUT OF CANADA.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORT WAVE AND NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION WILL
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND DRAG BATCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONGEST QG-UPWARD FORCING
WILL SLIDE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THAT...AND UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT A
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIZZLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
COMMONPLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...BETTER DAYS AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SLOW TO MOVE EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED PATTERN/STRONG JET CORES STILL
LOOKING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY/RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
TO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THIS WEEK. STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE ENERGETIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT MONDAY. MIXED
SIGNALS CONTINUE ON HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN?)...ALL TIED TO YET TO BE RESOLVED
RIDGE/TROUGH PLACEMENT. KINDA FAR OUT THERE...BUT HAVE TO SAY WHAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL AGREED UPON SLOW REALIGNMENT OF CURRENT 5-WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN (DEVELOPMENT OF WEST NOAM
TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGING) WOULD DEFINITELY ENSURE A MILD END TO THE
MONTH (AND DARE I SAY PERHAPS A MILD START TO NOVEMBER). WE SHALL
SEE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: MOSTLY FOCUSED ON LINGERING
SHOWER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: CLOUDY/COOL/DAMP START TO THE LONG RANGE AS WELL DEVELOPED
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. GREATEST FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS
TO PASS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SUB MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT OVERHEAD. PERUSAL OF SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
MORE OF A DRIZZLE SCENARIO...WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY FALLING OFF ABOVE
-10C. GIVEN PASSING OF MAIN DYNAMICS RATHER EARLY...WILL DEFINITELY
TILT THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLOW REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY AIR ARRIVAL BEGINS. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE OFF THE DECK DRYING SIMPLY BECOMES TOO AGGRESSIVE. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS SAID DRYING BEGINS TO ERODE REMAINING
STRATUS DECK.

MONDAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT HEADS OFF TO OUR
EAST...HELPING DRUM UP RESPECTABLE NORTHEAST CONUS LOW PRESSURE MID
AND LATE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM FLOW HELPS FORCE CURRENT HIGH
PLAINS RIDGING TO FOLD ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING...CENTERS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ATTENDANT DRY WEDGE IMPRESSIVE INDEED...RESULTING IN A SUN-FILLED
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WAVE PIVOTING UP THROUGH CANADA
THURSDAY MAKES A FEEBLE ATTEMPT TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
LOSS OF ATTENDANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE A RAPID ONE GIVEN
EAST COAST BLOCKING. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL IF IT OCCURS AT ALL...AND WILL
SIMPLY LEAVE THIS MORE OF A SHORT TERM ISSUE.

RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD DRY AND MILD FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON
POTENTIAL FOR RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT AND RESPECTABLE SURGE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD...ALTHOUGH ITSELF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE RUN
TO RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADFAST...WITH A MUCH MORE GLANCING BLOW TO ANY COOLER AIR. PLENTY
OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS LATTER SOLUTION. TO BE HONEST...KINDA
EXPECT MORE OF A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION TO OCCUR. CONSENSUS BLEND
PARTIALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER...LESS AGGRESSIVE OUTCOME. WILL
PLAY IT THIS WAY...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THIS PERIOD IN THE
COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURES...COOL EARLY WEEK CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN SOME AREAS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS MENTIONED...
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WARMER PROGS
EASILY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THOSE SAME TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST. BUT RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 191749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 191749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE STCU ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT PLN. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AS ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. PRECIP TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ AND MIST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS TURN INTO THE NW MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 191058
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT
IN -SHRA.

HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IL IS EXTENDING RIDGING INTO LOWER MI.
SOME SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS LINGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH THESE ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. STILL...MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THICKENING
HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BRINGING -SHRA AND LOWERING CIGS...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

S TO SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 191058
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT
IN -SHRA.

HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN IL IS EXTENDING RIDGING INTO LOWER MI.
SOME SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS LINGER IN NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH THESE ARE
TENDING TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. STILL...MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THICKENING
HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BRINGING -SHRA AND LOWERING CIGS...
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

S TO SW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 190728
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
328 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...
BRINGING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND RAIN IS LIKELY. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A LONGER
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY, THE 500 MB PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE 500 MB TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC OFF
THE WEST COAST. THIS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS MORE ENERGY TRAVELS DOWN THE INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH.
AS THE THIS ENERGY THAT IS TRAVELING DOWN THE 500 MB FLOW IN
MANITOBA HAS NOW DEVELOPED A SFC LOW THAT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH N MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY, AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE 850 MB RH
<30% AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH < 30% THROUGH 18Z, MOST OF THE DAY
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT`S NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z THAT THE 500 MB ENERGY
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FLOW A LITTLE BIT, AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z.
THE WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODEL MAY HAVE
SHARPENED IT UP INTO A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE IT IS STILL LIMITED UNTIL THE SFC LOW CLOSES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIMITED
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON IN E UPPER.

TONIGHT...BY THIS EVENING HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
INCREASES AS THE 850 MB RH AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH ARE BOTH
ABOVE 90% WITH THE DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SFC LOW. THE RAIN
LOOKS LIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC
LOW WILL RIDE DOWN THE WARM FRONT AND INTO E UPPER THIS WILL ALLOW
THE DRY SLOT TO TRAVEL IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND CUT OFF MOST OF THE
RAIN AFTER 06Z IN NW LOWER. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCY POPS AS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +2C BY 12Z, AS WE GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOW CONSIDERABLY...GRADUALLY
CROSSING NORTHERN MI ON MONDAY. A WEAKER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MAIN
TROF WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER MI MON
NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIP. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF...REACHING VA BY WED MORNING...WITH SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN SUPERIOR.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN SECTIONS. THAT/S THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH.

MONDAY...1007 MB SURFACE LOW STARTS THE MORNING OVER EASTERN UPPER
MI...AND WILL MOVE SOMEWHAT SLOWLY SE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE BRUCE
PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY TO OUR EAST AT DAYBREAK...BUT EXTENSIVE COLD CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS ACROSS NE LOWER...EASTERN UPPER...AND SUPERIOR...WHILE
A DRY SLOT IS MAKING INROADS INTO NW LOWER. THE DRY SLOT WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY
AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER
TROF REACHES LAKE HURON. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT...AND ARE NOT TERRIBLY
WET. MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIP IN THE WRAPAROUND ZONE...AND WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST A BIT TOWARD THE WET SIDE. THAT STILL ONLY
WARRANTS LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN UPPER/NE LOWER
MI...OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS SUFFICE.

HIGH TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SHIELD WILL
EXIT EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER MI MONDAY NIGHT...AND NE LOWER TUESDAY.
THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS ON MON NIGHT...SLOWING THE EXIT OF THE MOIST SHIELD AND
ALSO PROVIDING SOME SEMBLANCE OF LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE IN NE LOWER (CAN MAKE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS AGAIN FROM
ROGERS TO APN AND OSC...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW). WILL HANG ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN NE LOWER MI TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE WILL BE
DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN/
WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

STILL RATHER COOL...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40F...AND MAX TEMPS MID 40S TO NEAR 50F.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES WILL KEEP WED DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SEND
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE BUTTING INTO THE RIDGE
AND MAYBE FORCING A FEW SHRA ON THURSDAY. IN A FLIP-FLOP FROM
YESTERDAY...IT IS THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
POTENTIALLY WETTER SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS IN GENERAL...WILL
GIVE THE GFS A (RARE) CHANCE TO BE CORRECT...AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE
RUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THU AT THIS TIME. THAT EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO FLATTISH RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHILE A LOW CUTS OFF IN TX OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS A
DRY AND MILD PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BACK TO THE SW NOW, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
LAKES HAVE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THEN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WITH
THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE, MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE ADJACENT TO
NW LOWER. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE. TONIGHT, THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN LAKE MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN THE
EVENING. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z
ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW DURING THE DAY AND PROBABLY
INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE TIGHTENED UP ENOUGH TO GET LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ341-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 190345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. APPEARS ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS NW
LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) AND AROUND 03Z FOR NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN).
OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 182300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 182300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER MOST OF OUR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND FAR NW LWR
MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL) THANKS TO NORTHERLY FLOW...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SW ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
NW TO SE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 181946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LARGELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY EVENING. GUSTY NNW WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 181946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LARGELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY EVENING. GUSTY NNW WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 181946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LARGELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY EVENING. GUSTY NNW WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CANADIAN AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WILL GENERATE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY...GENERATING SOME SUNSHINE WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL INITIATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH FINALLY KICKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION WITH
THE LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN MICHIGAN. ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN ON PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR IS
BUILDING EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES (UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 20S) AND LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
THINNING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DESPITE THE FAIRLY
COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (-2C TO -4C AT INVERSION BASE).

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE LAKE CLOUD
COVER DO WE LOSE. AS MENTIONED...ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/
THINNESS IN THE LAKE STCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKES. BUT WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...FOR NOW WILL KEEP BKN
LAKE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING
THROUGH THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...AT LEAST SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE (TOWARDS THE BETTER)...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS
AN AMPLIFIED AND ENERGETIC ONE...WITH COOL TROUGHING AND BOUTS OF
INCLEMENT WEATHER PLAGUING MUCH OF NORTHEAST NOAM...ALL-THE-WHILE
RIDGING AND MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS DOMINATES THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...PACIFIC PATTERN IS
AGGRESSIVE....SPURRED ALONG BY FULLY MATURE/PROGRESSIVE/WAVY UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE...FEATURING 140+ KNOT H2 WIND CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN. NOSE OF THIS JET ALREADY PUNCHING HIGH ABOVE THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...AND COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM CORE...IS SET TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION TO KICK OFF THE NEW
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...MOST ROBUST TROUGH AMPLIFICATION APPEARS TO
TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS SAID PACIFIC JET CORE EVENTUALLY
PLOWS FULL BORE INTO WESTERN NOAM. SUCH SHOULD THEORETICALLY ALLOW
RIDGING TO DRIVE OVERHEAD HEADING INTO THE MID AND LATE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK...PERHAPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH DESERVED REPRIEVE
FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF PROLONGED WET WEATHER (AND DID IT MENTION
ONE HECK OF A TIME TO PICK UP ALL THOSE WATER SOAKED LEAVES).

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: SHOWER EVOLUTION TO START THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: DRY START TO SUNDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
AS RATHER ROBUST WAVE DIVES THROUGH BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING.
NORTHEAST ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE DISPLAYED ON ALL GUIDANCE IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSING BY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. STILL...MORE
THAN ENOUGH OF BOTH TIED TO ROUND OF DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK "INTENSITY" AND COVERAGE TIED TO PRIMARY
WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH AT ALL
(AOB A QUARTER OF AN INCH)...WITH COMPLETE DETACHMENT OF ANY
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND VERY LIMITED/IF ANY/LAKE
CONTRIBUTION.

ANY LINGERING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY YIELDS TO STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
DEVELOPING EASTERN SEABOARD STORM SYSTEM. THIS EASTERN STORM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE AS PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING BECOMES DETACHED...
WAITING FOR UPSTREAM LATE WEEK KICKER SYSTEM BEFORE FINALLY MOVING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY
PLEASANT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...WITH DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. SOME HINTS IN
LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT EARLIER MENTIONED "KICKER"
SYSTEM HAVE HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. NOT BUYING SUCH JUST YET...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY DRY OVERHEAD AIRMASS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
00Z ECMWF BREAKING WHAT HAD BEEN MULTI-RUN CONTINUITY...DIVING A
STRONG WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD SURGE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES. 00Z GFS/VAST
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ SAY NO SUCH THING...KEEPING A MUCH
FLATTER LOOKING PATTERN AND KEEPING ANY WEAK WAVE OFF TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF PACIFIC PATTERN...HAVE TO SAY THE AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER PATTERN DISPLAYED IN ECMWF DEFINITELY HAS SOME MERIT.
HOWEVER...WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE.

TEMPERATURES: MODERATION APPEARS THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALBEIT WITH A COUPLE CHILLY
NIGHTS GIVEN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60
DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE BY NO MEANS WARM...THESE ARE
IN FACT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LARGELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY EVENING. GUSTY NNW WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL THUS TRIM BACK ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THAT...WINDS TURN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181802
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND OUT OF THE STATE. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. BUT ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN ON
PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW.

VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE BIG QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER DO
WE LOSE. ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/THINNESS IN THE STCU DECK
WHICH SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PARTICULARLY WELL AWAY FROM THE
LAKES AND IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS. TOUGH CALL...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE COLD AND STRONG INVERSION SITTING AROUND 900 MB OFFERS GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO GET "STUCK." WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT
INLAND CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT
KEEP BKN LAKE CLOUDINESS AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE
ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING THROUGH THE
20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LARGELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY EVENING. GUSTY NNW WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 181802
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LAST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BATCH OF PRECIP DROPPING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND OUT OF THE STATE. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE/CLOUDS NOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. BUT ABUNDANT LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN ON
PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW.

VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADS NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE BIG QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER DO
WE LOSE. ALREADY GETTING NICE BREAKS/THINNESS IN THE STCU DECK
WHICH SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND PARTICULARLY WELL AWAY FROM THE
LAKES AND IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS. TOUGH CALL...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
ARE COLD AND STRONG INVERSION SITTING AROUND 900 MB OFFERS GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO GET "STUCK." WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT
INLAND CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT
KEEP BKN LAKE CLOUDINESS AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY...PRESQUE
ISLE AND WHITEFISH BAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WITH INLAND CLEARING...TEMPS WILL GET COLD...DROPPING THROUGH THE
20S AND THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LARGELY HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY EVENING. GUSTY NNW WINDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
BY 00Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181055
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON APN/PLN.

COOL AND DAMP LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY...BUT SLOWLY...AND
MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. TVC/PLN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS THRU
THE FORECAST.

BLUSTERY NNW WINDS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181055
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON APN/PLN.

COOL AND DAMP LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY...BUT SLOWLY...AND
MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. TVC/PLN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS THRU
THE FORECAST.

BLUSTERY NNW WINDS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 181055
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON APN/PLN.

COOL AND DAMP LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY...BUT SLOWLY...AND
MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. TVC/PLN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS THRU
THE FORECAST.

BLUSTERY NNW WINDS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 181055
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CIGS...IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON APN/PLN.

COOL AND DAMP LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY...BUT SLOWLY...AND
MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MI. TVC/PLN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS THRU
THE FORECAST.

BLUSTERY NNW WINDS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 180734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS
IMPACT THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. PRECIP
WILL END BY AROUND MIDDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO LESS THEN 10 KTS
AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL







000
FXUS63 KAPX 180734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT

CURRENTLY, MAIN SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
AND NOW TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME SMALL LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHS
OVER THE REGION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYSTEM
RAIN IS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOW WITH THE NORTH FLOW OVER
THE REGION, WE ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS
OVER N MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE AROUND -3C
WHILE THE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 13C.

TODAY...WITH THE SFC AND 500 MB TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST SLOWLY TO
DAY THE NORTH TO NNW FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO THIN OUT AS THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING UPSTREAM, WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION (850-700 MB LAYER RH<20%) THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD BE DON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TONIGHT...THE DRYING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AS THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 1000-850 STREAMLINES SHOW A
VERY SHARP TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING OVER NIGHT INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS THIS SHOULD SHUT
OFF THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SO THAT MOST CLOUDS THAT WERE LAKE
INDUCED SHOULD BEGIN TO ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.

THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. OUR BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES INTO THE LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. AFTER RELATIVELY QUIET WX SUNDAY...POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES ARE
THE MAIN ISSUE.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT CROSSES
LOWER MI AT MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MI IN THE
MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...THOUGH NW FLOW AREAS WILL
SEE LAKE-INDUCED STRATOCU...AND HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKENING THRU THE DAY. THE DEEPER AIRMASS IS OTHERWISE DRY
(850-700MB RH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY).

HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN RAPID
THICKENING/LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY LATE.
THERE IS A LOT OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR TO OVERCOME (PER PREVIOUS
PARAGRAPH)...BUT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL INCLINED TO SPIT OUT A
TOUCH OF QPF IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND WESTERN CHIP/MACK JUST BEFORE
00Z. SMALL CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN WESTERN SECTIONS VERY
LATE...AND THIS STILL LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE.

MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOL...RANGING THRU THE 40S.

SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER-ISH SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
FAR NORTHERN LAKE MI BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WON/T BE IN A TREMENDOUS
HURRY...REACHING ONLY FAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY LATE MONDAY. ALSO
BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH THE DIGGING
500MB TROF. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY EVENING MOVES
QUICKLY EAST...AND IN NORTHERN LOWER MI THERE MAY BE A BIT OF BREAK
BEHIND IT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS BACK IN WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND 500MB TROF. THAT/S A LOT OF DETAIL THOUGH FOR A 4TH
PERIOD FORECAST. WILL PORTRAY LIKELY POPS SPREADING W TO E AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROCEEDS. BUT...WITH MODELS SLOWING SLIGHTLY AND HPC FAVORING
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF...WILL REMOVE ANY DECREASE IN POPS FROM W TO E
TOWARD MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL NEED LIKELY POPS NEAR/EAST OF
I-75 IN BOTH PENINSULAS. BY AFTERNOON...STILL A LOT OF DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW...BUT WE ARE ALSO SEEING SUBTLE DRYING AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES JSUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLANKET CHANCY POP WILL DO
FINE.

MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MAX TEMPS NEAR 50F TO THE MID 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WED. RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. A CHANCE OF -SRHA WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MI
MONDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUE MORNING IN EASTERN SECTIONS.
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WX FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE
BY THU...AND WILL TOUCH 60F IN SOME OF THE WARMER LOCALES (LIKE
TVC). A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND BUTT
INTO THE SKINNY RIDGE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WIDELY AS TO HOW
STRONG THIS TROF IS AND HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WOULD HAVE. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS...AND ALLOWS TO RIDGING TO HOLD ON
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS
IMPACT THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. PRECIP
WILL END BY AROUND MIDDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO LESS THEN 10 KTS
AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE BLOWING AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION, THE WINDS BEGIN TO FALL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX. TONIGHT THE WINDS
ALMOST GO CALM AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT MOST AND DIMINISH AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JL








000
FXUS63 KAPX 180345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS
IMPACT THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. PRECIP
WILL END BY AROUND MIDDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO LESS THEN 10 KTS
AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 180345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS
IMPACT THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. PRECIP
WILL END BY AROUND MIDDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING TO LESS THEN 10 KTS
AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 172300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 172300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 172300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 172300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU SATURDAY EVENING AS WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS IMPACT THE
AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 172012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS DIPPING BACK BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS REALLY TAKE OFF
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT FOR SATURDAY (STILL RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS). BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
THE SHOWERS AND BRING SOME IMPROVING CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 172012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS DIPPING BACK BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS REALLY TAKE OFF
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT FOR SATURDAY (STILL RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS). BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
THE SHOWERS AND BRING SOME IMPROVING CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 172012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS DIPPING BACK BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS REALLY TAKE OFF
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT FOR SATURDAY (STILL RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS). BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
THE SHOWERS AND BRING SOME IMPROVING CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM







000
FXUS63 KAPX 172012
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PASSED THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
LITTLE SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT...

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW ADVANCING OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND BRINGING AN UPTICK TO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. PARENT SFC LOW IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT TRAILING
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND CONTINUING ON INTO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH...DEEPER MOISTURE FEED AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC ALONG THE NRN SIDE OF
THE LARGER SCALE PARENT TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SFC LOW.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR WILL
SWING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE THUMB THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW SUITE AND
SWING DOWN THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH A POCKET OF -22C 500 MB AIR SLIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...STILL CANNOT RULE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SOME THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PRECIP JUST UPSTREAM UNDER THE CORE OF COLD AIR DOES APPEAR A BIT
BUBBLY. BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING. STILL DON/T THINK THE CHANCES ARE
VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND I DON/T HAVE A
COMPELLING ENOUGH REASON TO TAKE IT OUT.

THEN...BATCH OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PIVOT DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS ON THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY BUT PERSISTENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL DROPPING
H8 TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C. CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO GET LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE MIX AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN). FREEZING LEVELS DO DROP
TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING... LOW
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST CONSIDER ADDING SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...
WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING QUICKLY TO
UNDER 4K FEET OVERNIGHT (RESULTING IN SHALLOWER LAKE CONVECTION NOT
POKING UP INTO ICE PRODUCING LAYER) HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

IN ALL...SHAPING UP TO BE A WET AND CHILLY NIGHT (PARTICULARLY IN
THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS) ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SFC/UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. COLD
FRONT FROM WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENTIRE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS CROSS REGION
LATE SATURDAY. MORE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH CANADA HELPS CARVE ANOTHER
TROUGH WHICH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN
PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MIDWEEK WITH
RIDGING TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

NEAR TERM (LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND
DESCENT LIFT IN STORE WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE/LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O CLOSE TO 1 INCH. LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLDEST AIR MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS.

...POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP AND EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...

REST OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR RIDGE TO
CONTROL OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS EXTENDED FORECAST IS BASED ON
THAT IDEA. THIS WOULD MEAN FINALLY SEEING DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS IN A ROW. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BUT CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C BY WEEKS
END. THIS COULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS DIPPING BACK BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS REALLY TAKE OFF
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT FOR SATURDAY (STILL RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS). BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
THE SHOWERS AND BRING SOME IMPROVING CIGS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING BRINGING RAINFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PUSHING GALE
FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND
GALE HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE TRIMMED A BIT EARLY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM








000
FXUS63 KAPX 171817
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PHASING WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN VORTICITY CENTER IS ROTATING ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS. AT THE
SFC...LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO NRN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG
THE NRN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL SWING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO ROTATE INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS CORE OF
COLDER AIR (-19C TO -22C AT 500 MB) COMES IN ALOFT AT PEAK
"HEATING." SO...DRIZZLE...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL START TO PIVOT
BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALSO BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT WAY.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH -19C TO -22C 500 MB CORE OF AIR SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT PEAK HEATING AND POCKET OF H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITIES OF SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. DON/T THINK THE CHANCES
ARE VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS DIPPING BACK BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS REALLY TAKE OFF
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT FOR SATURDAY (STILL RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS). BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
THE SHOWERS AND BRING SOME IMPROVING CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 171817
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PHASING WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN VORTICITY CENTER IS ROTATING ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS. AT THE
SFC...LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO NRN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG
THE NRN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL SWING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO ROTATE INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS CORE OF
COLDER AIR (-19C TO -22C AT 500 MB) COMES IN ALOFT AT PEAK
"HEATING." SO...DRIZZLE...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL START TO PIVOT
BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALSO BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT WAY.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH -19C TO -22C 500 MB CORE OF AIR SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT PEAK HEATING AND POCKET OF H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITIES OF SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. DON/T THINK THE CHANCES
ARE VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING
INCREASING SHOWERS AND CIGS DIPPING BACK BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS REALLY TAKE OFF
ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A
BIT FOR SATURDAY (STILL RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS). BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A QUICK END TO
THE SHOWERS AND BRING SOME IMPROVING CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 171544
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PHASING WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN VORTICITY CENTER IS ROTATING ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS. AT THE
SFC...LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO NRN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG
THE NRN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL SWING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO ROTATE INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS CORE OF
COLDER AIR (-19C TO -22C AT 500 MB) COMES IN ALOFT AT PEAK
"HEATING." SO...DRIZZLE...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL START TO PIVOT
BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALSO BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT WAY.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH -19C TO -22C 500 MB CORE OF AIR SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT PEAK HEATING AND POCKET OF H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITIES OF SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. DON/T THINK THE CHANCES
ARE VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 171544
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PHASING WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN VORTICITY CENTER IS ROTATING ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS. AT THE
SFC...LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO NRN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG
THE NRN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL SWING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO ROTATE INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS CORE OF
COLDER AIR (-19C TO -22C AT 500 MB) COMES IN ALOFT AT PEAK
"HEATING." SO...DRIZZLE...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL START TO PIVOT
BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALSO BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT WAY.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH -19C TO -22C 500 MB CORE OF AIR SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT PEAK HEATING AND POCKET OF H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITIES OF SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. DON/T THINK THE CHANCES
ARE VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 171544
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PHASING WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN VORTICITY CENTER IS ROTATING ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS. AT THE
SFC...LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO NRN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG
THE NRN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL SWING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO ROTATE INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS CORE OF
COLDER AIR (-19C TO -22C AT 500 MB) COMES IN ALOFT AT PEAK
"HEATING." SO...DRIZZLE...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL START TO PIVOT
BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALSO BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT WAY.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH -19C TO -22C 500 MB CORE OF AIR SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT PEAK HEATING AND POCKET OF H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITIES OF SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. DON/T THINK THE CHANCES
ARE VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 171544
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1144 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PHASING WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN VORTICITY CENTER IS ROTATING ACROSS NRN
WISCONSIN ALONG WITH AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS. AT THE
SFC...LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO NRN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP HAS ROTATED UP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG
THE NRN SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...BUT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF PIVOTING BACK DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL SWING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ATTENDING BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO ROTATE INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS CORE OF
COLDER AIR (-19C TO -22C AT 500 MB) COMES IN ALOFT AT PEAK
"HEATING." SO...DRIZZLE...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL START TO PIVOT
BACK INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALSO BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT WAY.

THUNDER CHANCES...WITH -19C TO -22C 500 MB CORE OF AIR SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT PEAK HEATING AND POCKET OF H7-H5
LAPSE RATES PUSHING 7C/KM...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITIES OF SOME
THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. DON/T THINK THE CHANCES
ARE VERY HIGH BUT WE ALREADY HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 171047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 171047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB







000
FXUS63 KAPX 171047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB








000
FXUS63 KAPX 171047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
647 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS INTO MICHIGAN TODAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...SHOWERS TO INCREASE TODAY/BECOMING WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.  WIND GUSTS AROUND
40MPH EXPECTED ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS IMPACTED BY NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH PASSING OF UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS
FLANK THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING....998MB LOW CENTER OVER
FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH AND ELONGATED 999MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THE FORMER IS THE SURFACE RESPONSE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ATTACHED TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  STILL
PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN PER
00Z APX RAOB (SATURATED BELOW 775MB)...WHILE DRIER AIR REMAINS
POISED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (00Z MPX/DVN SOUNDINGS
IN PARTICULAR).  "WAVES" OF DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WAS PUSHING
BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  THERE IS
CLEARING PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE CENTER (3-4MB/3H)...SUPPORTING DEEPENING
AND A CONTINUED NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY.  NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SURFACE
LOW TRACKING EAST TOWARD AN ELONGATED AXIS OF 2MB/3H PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN.  EVENTUALLY THESE DISPARATE
FEATURES WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM AS IT
ABSORBS THE ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORMS ONE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC BY
TONIGHT.  THIS PROCESS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND PULL COLDER AIR ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS OF ARRIVING SHORT WAVE LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST...AND OVERALL DETERIORATING WEATHER AS SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE (PRECIPITATION AND WIND CONCERNS).  ANY THUNDER
CHANCES BENEATH THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON?

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY DEALING WITH SOME CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR
A MISTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST LAYER DEPTH INCREASES WITH
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION START DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY AS STRONGER
FORCING AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.  SO PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  500MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20C MAY SUPPORT A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL...DECENT OVERLAP BETWEEN LOW
LEVEL (925-850MB) THETA-E AND DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...WHICH HAD BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL EARLIER
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WIND GUSTS 25-30MPH EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH ALONG SHORELINE AREAS IMPACTED BY ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY...850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND A DECREASE IN OVER WATER
STABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO OCCUR.  WON`T RULE
OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
OVERNIGHT...BUT WON`T ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GALE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON MOST OF
THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
NO REAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL GOING PATTERN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE. SIMPLY PUT...THAT MEANS AN OVERALL FLAVOR OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...REINFORCED AT VARIOUS TIMES BY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE FIRST
OF THOSE REINFORCING SHOTS ARRIVES INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
TOWARD MONDAY...BEFORE SOME BETTER NEWS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD MID
AND LATE WEEK AS HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND...ALL WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES A FIRM GRIP ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT FAR OUT
WITH REGARD TO JUST HOW MUCH RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD AND WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE
ON OUR LOCAL ABILITY TO SEE ANY WARMER TEMPS.

BREAKING IT ALL DOWN...THINGS LOOK LIKE THIS:

SATURDAY: WELCOME BACK FALL! MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED
OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND
EXCELLENT LAKE INSTABILITY PROMOTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MANY
AREAS...AIDED BY STRONGER FLOW TO ADVECT THE PRECIP FARTHER INLAND.
THAT PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON AS
SHARP DRYING ALOFT SPREADS IN...WITH MOISTURE THINNING DOWN BELOW
875MB BY 18Z AND FURTHER LOWERING THEREAFTER. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...AND GIVEN SUCH CHILLY LOW LEVEL TEMPS (I.E. GREAT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY)...SUSPECT MOMENTUM WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY ENDING THEREAFTER AS
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARRIVES AND MOISTURE THINS EVEN MORE.
DEFINITELY A CHILLY/BREEZY DAY WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO EVEN HIT 40...WITH LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. AS
HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO RECENTLY...THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN SATURDAY MORNING ISN`T ZERO GIVEN SUCH A CHILLY AIR MASS AND
MELTING LEVELS JUST BELOW 2KFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD ON TAP AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. GIVEN THE SETUP WITH PERSISTENT SHALLOW INSTABILITY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH PESKY REMNANT LAKE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PROBABLY EVEN INTO PART OF SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT OF COURSE
MAKES TEMPS DARN NEAR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START AND TYPICAL NATURE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO THIN AT TIMES FARTHER
INLAND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT SOME SPOTS WILL EASILY END UP DOWN IN THE
20S. WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY
THIN WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR...BUT OF COURSE
JUST IN TIME FOR ADDITIONAL THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLASSIC CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE
AN APPEARANCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS ANOTHER FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. STILL A TOUCH OF
PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS WELL ESTABLISHED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BENEATH THE
CORE OF COOLEST AIR ALOFT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOING LIKELY POPS
CAN PROBABLY STAND A BOOST SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...THOUGH
REMNANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER
FORCING MANDATES LEAVING THAT TO LATER SHIFTS. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
CERTAINLY TROUBLESOME...BUT GET THE FEELING MANY SPOTS WILL END UP
ON THE COOLISH SIDE...STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S
WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: COULD END UP SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...PENDING THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION MAY BE THE
WAY TO GO...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT EXACTLY HIGH. IN ANY CASE...THE
OVERALL TREND HEADING INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH UPPER ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD MIDWEEK...BUT BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR AND RECENT TRENDS...HIGHLY SUSPECT WE ARE LOOKING AT YET
ANOTHER CLOSED SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WHAT
COULD BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH INTO LATE WEEK. IN FACT...IT`S NOT
COMPLETELY INCONCEIVABLE THAT THAT FEATURE COULD END UP FARTHER WEST
AS MANY HAVE DONE IN RECENT MEMORY - AN IDEA OFFERED UP BY SEVERAL
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE 16/18Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL TAKE
THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AT THIS JUNCTURE...AS SUGGESTED BY PERSISTENCE
FROM THE ECMWF...ALLOWING FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM
HUDSON BAY TO TAKE OVER INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. THAT RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED QUITE DRY CANADIAN AIR SHOULD DELIVER SOME MUCH-DESERVED
SUNSHINE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH WITH
SHALLOW MIXING NOT DOING A WHOLE LOT TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMER TEMPS.
STILL...READINGS PUSHING BACK TOWARD CLIMO LEVELS (MAINLY LOW/MID
50S) LOOK DOABLE BY WED-THU...BUT WITH CERTAINLY SOME CHILLY MID
FALL MORNINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING
IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
MBL WITH SOME CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. MOSTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  EXPECT
WINDS TO RAMP UP 20-30KTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
ZONES...AND GALES BY EVENING FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES (WARNINGS WILL RUN THROUGH SATURDAY).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LHZ346-349.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ345-347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB







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