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000
FXUS63 KAPX 180647
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY BEHIND THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED
BOUNDARY PASSING THRU NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY NORTH OF MICHIGAN. EXPECT
ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY TODAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
MPH THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO GREEN UP...DESPITE THE FACT THAT BOTH TEMPS AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO AND FWF.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES HOLD ON INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT PATTERN SUPPORTING
SOME IMPRESSIVELY NICE NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER ABOUT TO GO THROUGH
SOME ABRUPT CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLY DEEP
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NOAM...WITH OUR WEATHER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WELL AGREED UPON
DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WORK
WEEK. DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH REALLY A TWO PART PROCESS...WITH CURRENT
SHOWER/STORM PRODUCING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY RACING NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY (BRINGING A MUCH...MUCH NEEDED RAIN EVENT)...ALL-THE-WHILE
NORTHERN ENERGY DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE WILL
MERGE...CARVING OUT SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW...BRINGING US A MUCH COOLER
(AND OCCASIONALLY INCLEMENT) PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIP
TIMING/COVERAGE/AND TYPE (OH MY!).

DETAILS: RAIN...AND PERHAPS A GOOD DEAL OF IT...EXPECTED BY LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER BRINGING SOUTHERN
SYSTEM UP THIS WAY...WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT VERY DRY OVERHEAD
AIRMASS AND A PROPENSITY FOR THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS TO EJECT SLOWER
THAN ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. MORNING NO DOUBT LOOKS DRY UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BASED OFF TRENDS...PERHAPS A DRY START TO
THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CHANGE HEADING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GOOD NORTHWARD SURGING MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE...ITSELF A PRODUCT OF REALLY
NICE OVERHEAD PLACEMENT OF RER JET DYNAMICS WITHING ANTI-CYCLONIC
CURVED UPPER JET STREAK. EXPECT A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN TIED TO
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE/ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WITH
SAID DYNAMICS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO UP NEAR AN INCH
THEORETICALLY SUPPORTING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT ALL TOLD...A WELCOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
LIQUID LOOKS DOABLE. AS FOR THUNDER...STILL APPEARS INSTABILITY CORE
WILL REMAIN REMOVED TO OUR SOUTH...NEGATING ANY THUNDER CONCERN THIS
FAR NORTH. MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH DEEPENING
TROUGH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE
LIGHTER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

NOT LOOKING TOO GREAT DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TIED TO DEEP
OVERHEAD TROUGHING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR DOME (H8 TEMPERATURES AOB -5C) SHOULD ONLY HELP
THE PRECIP CAUSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT LOOKING QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINING OPTIMISTIC BY KEEPING
FRIDAY DRY. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PER TRENDS...REALLY STARTING TO GET THE FEELING
WHAT FALLS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY BE PRIMARILY SNOW.
EVEN WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...SAID STEEP LAPSE
RATES/CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY...EVEN SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST GOTTA LOVE SPRING IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS
TODAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA THRU TONIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA BY
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 180647
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY BEHIND THE SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED
BOUNDARY PASSING THRU NRN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY NORTH OF MICHIGAN. EXPECT
ANOTHER SUNNY...DRY AND MILD DAY TODAY...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
MPH THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO GREEN UP...DESPITE THE FACT THAT BOTH TEMPS AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO AND FWF.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES HOLD ON INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT PATTERN SUPPORTING
SOME IMPRESSIVELY NICE NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER ABOUT TO GO THROUGH
SOME ABRUPT CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLY DEEP
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NOAM...WITH OUR WEATHER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WELL AGREED UPON
DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WORK
WEEK. DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH REALLY A TWO PART PROCESS...WITH CURRENT
SHOWER/STORM PRODUCING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY RACING NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY (BRINGING A MUCH...MUCH NEEDED RAIN EVENT)...ALL-THE-WHILE
NORTHERN ENERGY DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE WILL
MERGE...CARVING OUT SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW...BRINGING US A MUCH COOLER
(AND OCCASIONALLY INCLEMENT) PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIP
TIMING/COVERAGE/AND TYPE (OH MY!).

DETAILS: RAIN...AND PERHAPS A GOOD DEAL OF IT...EXPECTED BY LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER BRINGING SOUTHERN
SYSTEM UP THIS WAY...WELL SUPPORTED BY CURRENT VERY DRY OVERHEAD
AIRMASS AND A PROPENSITY FOR THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS TO EJECT SLOWER
THAN ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. MORNING NO DOUBT LOOKS DRY UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND BASED OFF TRENDS...PERHAPS A DRY START TO
THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CHANGE HEADING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GOOD NORTHWARD SURGING MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE...ITSELF A PRODUCT OF REALLY
NICE OVERHEAD PLACEMENT OF RER JET DYNAMICS WITHING ANTI-CYCLONIC
CURVED UPPER JET STREAK. EXPECT A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN TIED TO
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE/ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WITH
SAID DYNAMICS AND PWAT VALUES SURGING TO UP NEAR AN INCH
THEORETICALLY SUPPORTING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT ALL TOLD...A WELCOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
LIQUID LOOKS DOABLE. AS FOR THUNDER...STILL APPEARS INSTABILITY CORE
WILL REMAIN REMOVED TO OUR SOUTH...NEGATING ANY THUNDER CONCERN THIS
FAR NORTH. MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH DEEPENING
TROUGH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE
LIGHTER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

NOT LOOKING TOO GREAT DURING
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TIED TO DEEP
OVERHEAD TROUGHING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR DOME (H8 TEMPERATURES AOB -5C) SHOULD ONLY HELP
THE PRECIP CAUSE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT LOOKING QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF LAKE CONTRIBUTION. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWER
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINING OPTIMISTIC BY KEEPING
FRIDAY DRY. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PER TRENDS...REALLY STARTING TO GET THE FEELING
WHAT FALLS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY BE PRIMARILY SNOW.
EVEN WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...SAID STEEP LAPSE
RATES/CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD EASILY DROP TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY...EVEN SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST GOTTA LOVE SPRING IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS
TODAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA THRU TONIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA BY
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MSB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 180509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
109 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DOUBLE-BARRELED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT LAY ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND SE ND. THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE A BIT FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...QUICKLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...
AS DYNAMICS ARE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTH AND WE HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT 0.45 PER 00Z APX SOUNDING). PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER GETS GRAZED WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THAT/S ABOUT
IT. TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS
TODAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 180509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
109 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DOUBLE-BARRELED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT LAY ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND SE ND. THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE A BIT FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...QUICKLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...
AS DYNAMICS ARE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTH AND WE HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT 0.45 PER 00Z APX SOUNDING). PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER GETS GRAZED WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THAT/S ABOUT
IT. TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS
TODAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 180509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
109 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DOUBLE-BARRELED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT LAY ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND SE ND. THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE A BIT FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...QUICKLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...
AS DYNAMICS ARE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTH AND WE HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT 0.45 PER 00Z APX SOUNDING). PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER GETS GRAZED WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THAT/S ABOUT
IT. TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR REMAIN
OVERHEAD. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME N/NE AT AROUND 10 KTS
TODAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 180149
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DOUBLE-BARRELED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT LAY ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND SE ND. THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE A BIT FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...QUICKLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...
AS DYNAMICS ARE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTH AND WE HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT 0.45 PER 00Z APX SOUNDING). PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER GETS GRAZED WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THAT/S ABOUT
IT. TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.




&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. NORTH TO NE BREEZE SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 180149
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DOUBLE-BARRELED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT LAY ACROSS NORTHERN MN
AND SE ND. THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE A BIT FURTHER AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...QUICKLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MI OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...
AS DYNAMICS ARE FOUND WELL TO THE NORTH AND WE HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT 0.45 PER 00Z APX SOUNDING). PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER GETS GRAZED WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THAT/S ABOUT
IT. TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.




&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. NORTH TO NE BREEZE SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 172355
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. NORTH TO NE BREEZE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 172355
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. NORTH TO NE BREEZE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 172001
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FEW AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 172001
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FEW AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 172001
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FEW AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 172001
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO. CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BROKEN AREA OF MID CLOUD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE
SUNNY AT MID AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER (WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S)...MORE OF A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER GIVEN COMPETING LAKE
BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH FRONT
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...APPROACHING COLD FRONT DOESN`T HAVE MUCH WITH IT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUPPORTING ENERGY
ALOFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S-AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SATURDAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF THE RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

(04/18)SATURDAY...THE 500 MB LOW, THAT STARTED OUT TODAY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA, IS NOW ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE, AND HAVE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM BEING
A CUT OFF LOW, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US, IS THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL TAKE
ITS TIME OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, SINCE IT TURNS INTO A HUDSON BAY
HIGH DURING SATURDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE LEFT THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT
TYPICALLY WOULD BE PRESENT IN SUCH A PATTERN AS THIS.

(04/19)SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE GFS (00Z &
06Z) SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, ONLY TO BACK IT OFF ON THE 12Z
RUN, WHICH LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF. THE LATEST ECMWF IS
SLOWER STILL. SO 2 THINGS ARE IN PLAY. 1. THE 500 MB CUT OFF IS
PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED, AND 2. THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IS GOING TO PUMP ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW IS ONLY GOING TO GO TO MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE, BEFORE ANY
RAIN STARTS. SO HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAIN START IN E UPPER AT THE 850
MB MOISTURE DOESN`T GET THERE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. SO WILL EXPECT THAT NO
MORE THAN SPRINKLES THERE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS, THE IT SHOULD CONTINUE, ALBEIT IT SHOWERY, THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OVER MICHIGAN WITH THE CUTOFF FOLLOWING
CLOSELY BEHIND.

(4/19)MONDAY...THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NE INTO ONTARIO. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN SOME AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 850 MB, AND DECENT DRY SLOT
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
THE SFC AND 500 MB LOW STALL NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE ROTATING OVER US.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STUBBORN...SLOW MOVING...500MB CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. THIS CUTOFF LOOKS TO STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THE MAIN LOW...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AND...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FEW AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WEAK GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BEHIND TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW THEN VEERS
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...ALM
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 171816
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
216 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PESKY ALTOCUMULUS DECK ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72 AT LATE MORNING
EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUN
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED AS WELL
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FEW AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 171510
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1110 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PESKY ALTOCUMULUS DECK ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72 AT LATE MORNING
EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUN
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED AS WELL
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

STILL SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT IMPACTING
MAINLY THE MBL TERMINAL SITE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WHILE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE.
BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 171510
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1110 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PESKY ALTOCUMULUS DECK ALONG/SOUTH OF M-72 AT LATE MORNING
EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUN
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED AS WELL
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

STILL SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT IMPACTING
MAINLY THE MBL TERMINAL SITE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WHILE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE.
BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 171028
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

STILL SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT IMPACTING
MAINLY THE MBL TERMINAL SITE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WHILE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE.
BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 171028
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

STILL SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT IMPACTING
MAINLY THE MBL TERMINAL SITE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WHILE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE.
BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 171028
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

STILL SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT IMPACTING
MAINLY THE MBL TERMINAL SITE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WHILE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE.
BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 171028
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

STILL SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN BUT IMPACTING
MAINLY THE MBL TERMINAL SITE THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WHILE SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE.
BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 170750
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAINFALL ACROSS THE TVC/MBL/CAD AREAS YESTERDAY LEADING TO SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING MBL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THERE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS SOME
MID CLOUD SPREADS INTO THE REGION RAISING TEMPS JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE FOG. BUT PLAN ON IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT MBL THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 170750
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

OVERVIEW: PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WESTERLIES REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THROUGH ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR AND A
BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY MID CLOUD STREAMING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHOWERS NOTED MOVING INTO MANITOBA.
MEANWHILE...DEEP CUTOFF LOW IS STUCK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
PRODUCING ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES. SRN STREAM JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE
RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

TODAY...SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING AROUND TRAVERSE CITY/
MANISTEE AND CADILLAC...WHERE WE PICKED UP SOME RAIN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT EARLY ON. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE RATHER
UNEVENTFUL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO LOOKING TO
WASH OUT ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION. BUT BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY LEADING TO OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
BUT IT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS/DEEP MIXING
TO ABOVE 800 MB SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME LOWER RH VALUES AS INLAND
DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...STILL A BIT
MARGINAL FROM AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSPECTIVE...SO I MAY REMOVE
THAT WORDING FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...SECOND AREA OF LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC BY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING VERY MUCH WEATHER-WISE OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER SLIDING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WEATHER
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PACIFIC DOMINATED AIRMASS AND A NORTH DISPLACED
(INTO SOUTHERN CANADA) NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SUPPORTING SUCH.
AND...FOR EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS...REALLY LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE ON THE WAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND WITH NOW
NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR CURRENT 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW (AND LEAD
WAVE) TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF FEED OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MID 60 DEW POINTS ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATTERN
REALLY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AND SLOW DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH MERGER OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVING
OUT QUITE THE COLD CORE GYRE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA. TIME OF YEAR DEFINITELY SUPPORTS SUCH CUT-OFF SLOW MOVING
SYSTEMS...AND GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION...THIS ONE HAS THE LOOKS
OF BECOMING ONE. EARLY TEMP PROGS NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(DIDN`T THINK SNOW SEASON WAS OVER YET...DID YOU?)

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: INITIAL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS SATURDAY (SPECIFICALLY TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY). LATER PERIODS DOMINATED BY PRECIP TIMING/COVERAGE/AND
TYPE.

DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY YIELDS TO ITS MID
LEVEL LIKENESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A QUIET AND SUN-FILLED
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT STILL PLEASANTLY MILD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH
WINDS...SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. ABSOLUTE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHALLOW MIXING UP THROUGH H8 BOTH SUPPORT TANKING DEW POINTS INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. SO DESPITE COOLER TEMPS...
PLUMMETING RH VALUES AND ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER/PRE-GREEN UP
SUPPORTS CONTINUED MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS EARLIER MENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MAKES THEIR WAY NORTHEAST UP INTO OUR AREA.
DRY LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A SLOWER ONSET TO THE RAINS...AND BASED OF
CURRENT TIMING...BELIEVE MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING MAY END UP DRY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET SURGES PWAT VALUES TO AOA 1
INCH LEVELS. CORRIDOR OF FORCED CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET
COINCIDENT WITH PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD SPREAD A RATHER
RESPECTABLE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...BUT BASED OFF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD EASILY
SEE MOST PLACES EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ANY FURTHER WEST
ADJUSTMENT AND THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCLEMENT AND INCREASINGLY
CHILLY ABOUT SUMS UP THE WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HINTS
ANOTHER SOUTHERN WAVE MAKES A RUN AT US MONDAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS
TO CLOSE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. REST OF THE PERIOD DOMINATED BY THIS
SLOW MOVING COLD CORE LOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND YET TO BE DETERMINED SUBTLE WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT
SYSTEM BRINGING AT LEAST SPORADIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. PER RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING CRASHING WET BULB
HEIGHTS...STARTING TO LOOK UNAVOIDABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL
MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S MONDAY GIVES WAY TO READINGS LARGELY
IN THE 40S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES...CAN
REALLY ENVISION TEMPS TANKING WHEN SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAINFALL ACROSS THE TVC/MBL/CAD AREAS YESTERDAY LEADING TO SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING MBL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THERE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS SOME
MID CLOUD SPREADS INTO THE REGION RAISING TEMPS JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE FOG. BUT PLAN ON IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT MBL THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES AGAIN TODAY WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
A GOOD BET. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME A
BIT GUSTY TOWARD MORNING...AS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION. BUT WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AND VEER
MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 170550
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IN TURN IS DROPPING TEMPERATURES FASTER AND A
BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES. STARTING TO GET A BIT
CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
TODAY AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY
DROP TO THE DEW POINT VALUES. A FEW STATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO HAVE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAINFALL ACROSS THE TVC/MBL/CAD AREAS YESTERDAY LEADING TO SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING MBL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THERE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS SOME
MID CLOUD SPREADS INTO THE REGION RAISING TEMPS JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE FOG. BUT PLAN ON IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT MBL THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 170550
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IN TURN IS DROPPING TEMPERATURES FASTER AND A
BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES. STARTING TO GET A BIT
CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
TODAY AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY
DROP TO THE DEW POINT VALUES. A FEW STATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO HAVE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAINFALL ACROSS THE TVC/MBL/CAD AREAS YESTERDAY LEADING TO SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING MBL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THERE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS SOME
MID CLOUD SPREADS INTO THE REGION RAISING TEMPS JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE FOG. BUT PLAN ON IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS AT MBL THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 170236
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1036 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IN TURN IS DROPPING TEMPERATURES FASTER AND A
BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES. STARTING TO GET A BIT
CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
TODAY AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY
DROP TO THE DEW POINT VALUES. A FEW STATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO HAVE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 170236
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1036 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IN TURN IS DROPPING TEMPERATURES FASTER AND A
BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES. STARTING TO GET A BIT
CONCERNED THAT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
TODAY AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY
DROP TO THE DEW POINT VALUES. A FEW STATIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO HAVE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 162357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 162357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 162357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 162357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS STILL ON TRACK. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND CLEARING CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST. EXPECT EASTERNMOST CWA TO CLEAR/SCATTER OUT BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 162003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
MARINE...JPB




000
FXUS63 KAPX 162003
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK (1020MB) SURFACE
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTH
DAKOTA.  SMALL VORTICITY CENTER WAS SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (A PAIR OF
VORTICITY CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN).
EARLIER RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE THINNED...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WHILE NORTHERN ONTARIO COLD FRONT DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING MIXED SKIES TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIN THIS EVENING...WILL THEN
WATCH CLOUD BAND OVER MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH MAY BRING
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WILL CALL IT PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW...GIVEN GENERAL LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
EXPECTED.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
US-131 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND THICKER
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS UNDER 10
DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

(04/17-18)FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING CUT OFF 500 MB OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ENE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES BY 00Z. AHEAD OF IT, THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SFC,
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE

(04/19)SUNDAY...AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY, TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE RAIN GETTING IN AND MOVING ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AROUND 18Z, THE 850 MB AND LOWER MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE, THE WARM FRONT AND THE 500 MB LOW TO THE WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVES, SHOULD GET US SOME SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN S LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z. AS WELL, ADDING TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT. SO
RAIN SHOULD BE PRODUCED IF NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE STRAITS, AT THE
VERY LEAST TO ABOUT M-32. THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL GET INTO E UPPER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MUCH NEEDED (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT)
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN: LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
THEN MERGES WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH
SHIFTS OVER AND PARKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

WEATHER: BEST SHOT OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE.
WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THESE PWATS PAN OUT...TO SQUASH FIRE
POTENTIAL AND HASTEN GREENUP. AS LOW SIT AND SPINS IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
LINE UP WITH DIURNAL DIPS TO AROUND 30 OR LESS...SAID PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE MADE UP ENTIRELY OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND MIX IN THE S-WORD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...IN THE EASTERN
UPPER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THAT IS
STILL A LONG WAY OFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
MARINE...JPB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 161742
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
142 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BROKEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER THIS MORNING
ALONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND WEAKER MID LEVEL
STABILITY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MOISTURE AXIS TIPS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ENDING OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AS THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST ALONG
WITH INCREASING QG SUBSIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS/AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. BUT GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS...A GOOD PART OF THAT
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 161742
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
142 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BROKEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER THIS MORNING
ALONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND WEAKER MID LEVEL
STABILITY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MOISTURE AXIS TIPS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ENDING OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AS THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST ALONG
WITH INCREASING QG SUBSIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS/AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. BUT GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS...A GOOD PART OF THAT
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TVC/MBL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 161519
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BROKEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER THIS MORNING
ALONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND WEAKER MID LEVEL
STABILITY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MOISTURE AXIS TIPS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ENDING OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AS THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST ALONG
WITH INCREASING QG SUBSIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS/AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. BUT GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS...A GOOD PART OF THAT
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN  WILL RIDE UP
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY
ULTIMATELY SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD APN. BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AT TVC/MBL TODAY. CIGS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN VFR ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT TVC/MBL WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 161519
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BROKEN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER THIS MORNING
ALONG MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND WEAKER MID LEVEL
STABILITY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MOISTURE AXIS TIPS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ENDING OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AS THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST ALONG
WITH INCREASING QG SUBSIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD INCREASING
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS/AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. BUT GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS...A GOOD PART OF THAT
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN  WILL RIDE UP
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY
ULTIMATELY SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD APN. BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AT TVC/MBL TODAY. CIGS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN VFR ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT TVC/MBL WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 161033
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
633 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS/AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. BUT GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS...A GOOD PART OF THAT
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN  WILL RIDE UP
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY
ULTIMATELY SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD APN. BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AT TVC/MBL TODAY. CIGS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN VFR ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT TVC/MBL WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 161033
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
633 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS/AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE NUDGED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. BUT GIVEN THE RADAR RETURNS...A GOOD PART OF THAT
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN  WILL RIDE UP
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY
ULTIMATELY SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD APN. BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AT TVC/MBL TODAY. CIGS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN VFR ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT TVC/MBL WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 160736
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATEDINSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. TO THE
SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
RIDE UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS INDIANA WITH A LITTLE BIT SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. CIGS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AT ANY GIVEN POINT.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 160736
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

OVERVIEW: A SOMEWHAT ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN STRETCHES
ACROSS SRN CANADA THIS MORNING WITH DEEP CUTOFF FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET STRETCHES FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE/WET WEATHER FOR THE SE STATES.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUR TALKED ABOUT COMPACT
SHORT WAVE OVER THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORT WAVE FORCING INTERACTING WITH A
MODEST MOISTURE AXIS NOSING FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING A DECENT AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS INDIANA...SOME OF WHICH HAS BEEN
SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD/HEAVY AS RADAR DEPICTS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS STATE AND LOWER LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE/MODEST FORCING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS UP INTO THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS...JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD WILL THIS PRECIP BE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NOT A BAD
POCKET OF SHOWERS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. BUT AS MENTIONED...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS UP THIS WAY REMAINS
REALLY DRY AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN) REALLY WEAKENS AS THE
WAVE MAKES IT/S WAY NORTHWARD. AND WE NEVER SEE ANY OF THE
ELEVATEDINSTABILITY GET THIS FAR NORTH TO HELP THINGS OUT.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD UP
INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...PERHAPS BOLSTERED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. BUT I JUST DON/T THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. SO...I HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK INTO CHANCY CATEGORY FOR
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WAVE EXITS ON TO THE N/E TAKING THICKER CLOUD COVER WITH
IT. BEHIND THE WAVE...SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THAT IS IF ANY ONE LOCATION CAN
PICK UP SOME RAIN TODAY. BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN THE DIMINISHING
CLOUD IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH.

JUST NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AND
WELCOME THE WEEKEND...AND THAT IS NEVER A BAD THING THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS DISCUSSED IN DEPTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...OUR PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...INITIALLY BUILDING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY
AND INTERRUPTED ONLY BRIEFLY BY THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK "COOL"
FRONT (AND THAT DESCRIPTION IS BEING GENEROUS). IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FEATURE...MORE TYPICAL HUDSON BAY TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK JUST
TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CYCLING IN THE USUAL
PUSH OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...JUST WAITING FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO DO
ITS THING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY HELP TANK DEW POINTS...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS THINKING (INCLUDING MINE) WAS THAT WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUD ISSUES TO DEAL WITH FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...AND INDEED
THAT LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH A SHALLOW BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASINGLY TOPPED BY SHARP DRYING AND A LOWERING INVERSION. IN
ADDITION...IT`S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE FOG THAT
ROLLS INLAND FOR A TIME...BUT HONESTLY THAT TYPE OF STUFF IS VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS (TYPICALLY SEEM
TO NEED WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS WELL ABOVE 45 DEGREES). STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT SHOULD BE A QUITE NICE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING INTO A CORE OF REMAINING H8 TEMPS AROUND 6C SUGGESTING HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MANY AREAS. COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
WESTERN SPOTS SHOULD PUSH 60 OR BETTER WITH DOWNSLOPE HELP. BIGGER
STORY OF COURSE WILL BE DEW POINTS...WITH VALUES SLIDING BACK
THROUGH THE 20S (TEENS?) AND DROPPING RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LIES AHEAD...AND SADLY ONE WITH
SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT HEY...IT IS APRIL AND THESE THINGS
HAPPEN HERE UP NORTH. IN FACT...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF AT SOME POINT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ADDITION OF THE "SHALL NOT BE NAMED" S-
WORD. FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...A TOUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OPENS UP AND SENDS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. NICE AXIS OF MOISTURE (PWATS UP NEAR AN INCH) IS
PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THAT FEATURE ALONG WITH A SHOT OF RATHER STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED MOISTURE AROUND THESE PARTS.

AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A HIT WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE NEARBY...BUT THE
BASIC GIST IS THAT THINGS LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF SHOWERS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...
COLDER AIR LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO WRAP BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE IDEA THAT SOME SNOW MAY ENTER THE MIX AT VARIOUS
TIMES. WAY TOO EARLY TO DISAPPOINT FOLKS WITH THAT MENTION JUST YET
AS ITS TIMING OR EXISTING REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN COMING DAYS. TEMPS A LITTLE
TRICKY IN THIS SETUP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SPOTS MAY SEE
A DAY OR TWO STUCK ONLY IN THE 30S PENDING PRECIP TIMING AND
COVERAGE...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL VENTURE BACK INTO THAT ALL-TOO-
FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. TO THE
SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
RIDE UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS INDIANA WITH A LITTLE BIT SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. CIGS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AT ANY GIVEN POINT.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON THE LAKES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 160617
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REACHED THE SRN LWR MICHIGAN BORDER...LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...AND THUS CLOUD COVER...WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH. STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
NOT REACH OUR SRN CWA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OR SO...BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP. GOING PRECIP AND CLOUD FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. TO THE
SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
RIDE UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS INDIANA WITH A LITTLE BIT SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. CIGS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AT ANY GIVEN POINT.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 160617
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REACHED THE SRN LWR MICHIGAN BORDER...LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...AND THUS CLOUD COVER...WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH. STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
NOT REACH OUR SRN CWA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OR SO...BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP. GOING PRECIP AND CLOUD FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. TO THE
SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
RIDE UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS INDIANA WITH A LITTLE BIT SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. CIGS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AT ANY GIVEN POINT.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 160617
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REACHED THE SRN LWR MICHIGAN BORDER...LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...AND THUS CLOUD COVER...WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH. STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
NOT REACH OUR SRN CWA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OR SO...BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP. GOING PRECIP AND CLOUD FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. TO THE
SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
RIDE UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS INDIANA WITH A LITTLE BIT SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. CIGS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AT ANY GIVEN POINT.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 160617
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REACHED THE SRN LWR MICHIGAN BORDER...LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...AND THUS CLOUD COVER...WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH. STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
NOT REACH OUR SRN CWA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OR SO...BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP. GOING PRECIP AND CLOUD FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCT-
BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. TO THE
SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
RIDE UP THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS INDIANA WITH A LITTLE BIT SNEAKING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY UP INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. CIGS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AT ANY GIVEN POINT.

DISTURBANCE/SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. MIGHT BE
A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS. BUT DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 160317
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REACHED THE SRN LWR MICHIGAN BORDER...LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...AND THUS CLOUD COVER...WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH. STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
NOT REACH OUR SRN CWA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OR SO...BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP. GOING PRECIP AND CLOUD FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL APPEARS
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO TVC. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 160317
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REACHED THE SRN LWR MICHIGAN BORDER...LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...AND THUS CLOUD COVER...WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH. STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
NOT REACH OUR SRN CWA UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OR SO...BUT CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE
PRECIP. GOING PRECIP AND CLOUD FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL APPEARS
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO TVC. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 152300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL APPEARS
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO TVC. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 152300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL APPEARS
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO TVC. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 152300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL APPEARS
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO TVC. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 152300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL APPEARS
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APN TO TVC. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151951
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151935
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151935
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151935
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151935
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
335 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

RIDGE COVERING GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING. THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI TO PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROLLS
INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...NORTHERN
MICHIGAN SHOULD JUST SEE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS AS A WEAK 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER
WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS...BUT THE FALL WILL BE HALTED
OVERNIGHT BY INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...A LITTLE RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...

A SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING A
LITTLE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SHOWN TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
WHILE WEAKENING. MODELS HAVE A NICE THETA E RIDGE SURGING INTO THE
REGION WHILE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.
FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TRICKY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THE DETERMINING
FACTOR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG WITH IT.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DRY OUT (BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SETUP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POTENTIAL TO
BE WARM FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN TO CREST AT BETWEEN
PLUS 6 AND PLUS 8. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. NOT
AS WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...BUT STILL A BIT DIFFERENT IN TIMING. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF AND MODEL
BLENDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY....THEN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING RIGHT ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER
EASTERN UPPER AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...KJF




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151658
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
12Z APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL/SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MISSOURI.
SOUNDING SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM DRIER NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DIRECTION. SO EXPECT CIRRUS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN
TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB WHICH ARE
AT +3C THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SOME BY
LATE MORNING WITH MIXING. WINDS CURRENTLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
900MB...15 TO 20KTS THROUGH 850MB. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
STILL EXPECT ANY THICKER CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151658
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1258 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
12Z APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL/SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MISSOURI.
SOUNDING SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM DRIER NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DIRECTION. SO EXPECT CIRRUS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN
TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB WHICH ARE
AT +3C THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SOME BY
LATE MORNING WITH MIXING. WINDS CURRENTLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
900MB...15 TO 20KTS THROUGH 850MB. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
STILL EXPECT ANY THICKER CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU EVENING AT MBL/FKS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD STILL OCCUR ON WESTERN SIDE OF MICHIGAN FROM TVC
NORTH.

TONIGHT...INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 850MB JET CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KJF
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
12Z APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL/SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MISSOURI.
SOUNDING SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM DRIER NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DIRECTION. SO EXPECT CIRRUS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN
TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB WHICH ARE
AT +3C THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SOME BY
LATE MORNING WITH MIXING. WINDS CURRENTLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
900MB...15 TO 20KTS THROUGH 850MB. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
STILL EXPECT ANY THICKER CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...

CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT
TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT
THOSE SITES. ALSO...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 10
KNOTS AT APN WITH THAT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. BUT WINDS DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD UP INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT LLWS
MAY DEVELOP AT MBL/TVC OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE
SFC.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
12Z APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL/SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MISSOURI.
SOUNDING SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM DRIER NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DIRECTION. SO EXPECT CIRRUS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN
TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB WHICH ARE
AT +3C THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SOME BY
LATE MORNING WITH MIXING. WINDS CURRENTLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
900MB...15 TO 20KTS THROUGH 850MB. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
STILL EXPECT ANY THICKER CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...

CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT
TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT
THOSE SITES. ALSO...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 10
KNOTS AT APN WITH THAT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. BUT WINDS DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD UP INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT LLWS
MAY DEVELOP AT MBL/TVC OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE
SFC.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
12Z APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL/SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MISSOURI.
SOUNDING SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM DRIER NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DIRECTION. SO EXPECT CIRRUS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN
TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB WHICH ARE
AT +3C THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SOME BY
LATE MORNING WITH MIXING. WINDS CURRENTLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
900MB...15 TO 20KTS THROUGH 850MB. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
STILL EXPECT ANY THICKER CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...

CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT
TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT
THOSE SITES. ALSO...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 10
KNOTS AT APN WITH THAT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. BUT WINDS DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD UP INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT LLWS
MAY DEVELOP AT MBL/TVC OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE
SFC.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 151400
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
12Z APX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
SATELLITE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL/SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MISSOURI.
SOUNDING SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL FROM DRIER NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DIRECTION. SO EXPECT CIRRUS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE IN
TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD MIX TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 850MB WHICH ARE
AT +3C THIS MORNING. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP SOME BY
LATE MORNING WITH MIXING. WINDS CURRENTLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
900MB...15 TO 20KTS THROUGH 850MB. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
STILL EXPECT ANY THICKER CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...

CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT
TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT
THOSE SITES. ALSO...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 10
KNOTS AT APN WITH THAT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. BUT WINDS DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD UP INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT LLWS
MAY DEVELOP AT MBL/TVC OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE
SFC.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KJF
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151046
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...

CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT
TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT
THOSE SITES. ALSO...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 10
KNOTS AT APN WITH THAT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. BUT WINDS DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD UP INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT LLWS
MAY DEVELOP AT MBL/TVC OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE
SFC.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 151046
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERNIGHT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT SPANNING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A SHARP TROUGH PRESSING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...STILL HAVE AN ACTIVE SRN
STREAM FROM THE GULF UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBTLE SHORT
WAVE/UPPER JET STREAK NOTED OVER MISSOURI INTO OHIO WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...JUST THINNING STRANDS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.

TODAY...PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO CYCLE VERY DRY AIR IN
ACROSS THE STATE ON VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS. MIGHT EVENTUALLY SEE
SOME OF THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS OFF TO OUR SOUTH GET PULLED UP
INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW LOW TO GO WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND WARM TEMPS WILL GET. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
PROFILE ALOFT AND MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...INLAND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL TUMBLE OFF ONCE AGAIN. PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY BUT
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 10-15F RANGE DROPPING RH VALUES INTO
TEENS. MEANWHILE...E/SE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GIVE WARMEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...REACHING THE MID 60S.
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST (50S). CERTAINLY SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
10 MPH OR LESS.

TONIGHT...QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN MISSOURI WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL OUT OF THAT FEATURE ON THURSDAY (SEE
BELOW). BUT TONIGHT...EXPECTING JUST INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SOUTH-NORTH LARGELY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY WITH ANY PRECIP
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

A VERY TYPICAL MID APRIL FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS BEING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SPOTS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKISH CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...BROADENING AXIS OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF TODAY`S HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BACK NORTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCHING AN INCH AHEAD OF
OUR UPPER WAVE. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT A FAST
MOVING AXIS OF DEEPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 700-600MB FGEN
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST LOWER DURING THE DAY. HONESTLY CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL EXPAND POPS A BIT WESTWARD. TEMPS
ARE TRICKY (WHAT`S NEW?) BUT A SNEAKY COOLISH DAY IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING TIME.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THURSDAY EVENING AS WE LOSE ALL
FORCING MECHANISMS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER AT NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUD OR FOG ISSUES FOR A TIME BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WITH
LIGHT FLOW... PENDING OF COURSE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN REALIZE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A RATHER NICE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES...BUT MODEST MIXING INTO A CORE OF +3C TO +5C 800MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE WATER. SHOULD NOT
SEE DEW POINTS TANK COMPLETELY AS BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
STILL AROUND...BUT NO DOUBT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH ALL THINGS HINGING ON THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
CLOSING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. NOT SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE
GUIDANCE REALLY STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WE ARE ENTERING CUTOFF
LOW SEASON...AND THERE ARE QUITE THE PLETHORA OF SCENARIOS THAT
COULD UNFOLD. AT THE MOMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A
SLOW OPENING OF SOUTHWEST ENERGY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXACTLY ALL THAT HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HINTS OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING IN OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH OF
COURSE WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS. RECENT TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO CLIP THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY FOR A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN...HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS BUT WORTH A
VERY LOW CHANCE MENTION.

ANY RAIN CHANCE WILL GET SQUASHED QUICKLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SETTING UP
ANOTHER CLASSIC BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WE CYCLE SOME VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS GAIN MOMENTUM...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE. SHOULD STILL FALL SHORT OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WEEKEND TO BE BURNING.

APPROACH OF TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY (MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO
MONDAY SHOULD BRING INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT AT LEAST ON PAPER THIS LOOKS
LIKE A POTENTIALLY RATHER WET SYSTEM FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WE SHALL
SEE...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD...

CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. WATCH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT
TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AT
THOSE SITES. ALSO...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 10
KNOTS AT APN WITH THAT LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT. BUT WINDS DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...THICKER HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD UP INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT LLWS
MAY DEVELOP AT MBL/TVC OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OFF THE
SFC.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHEAST-SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY BUT AGAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





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