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000
FXUS63 KAPX 052331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE FLURRIES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
SOME LOW VFR CLOUDINESS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION AS WELL ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 052331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE FLURRIES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
SOME LOW VFR CLOUDINESS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION AS WELL ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 052331
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE FLURRIES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
SOME LOW VFR CLOUDINESS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION AS WELL ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR




000
FXUS63 KAPX 052101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 052101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 052101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 052101
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SPREADING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS NOT NEARLY AS SUCCESSFUL IN SPREADING INLAND
AS I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE HOWEVER...PRIMARILY IMPACTING JUST THE
SW COUNTIES...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN ABUNDANT SUN.
THAT HAS "WARMED" THINGS UP QUITE A BIT TODAY...BUT AS OF 3 PM ALL
SITES EXCEPT THE SOO HAVE EITHER TIED OR SET A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 5TH. WILL SEE HOW IT FINALLY SHAKES OUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CLIMATE RUN.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BATCH OF LAKE/INLAND HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR
BUT FIZZLE OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AWHILE. BUT...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO MUCH OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SQUATTY INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP LAKE SNOWS PRETTY MINIMAL.

OTHER PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED...IT WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING.
AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED WITH TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FIRST INCLINATION
WAS TO REALLY CRANK LOW TEMP FORECASTS DOWN...A LOT. BUT...SW
FLOW (AND CLOUDS) WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY REVERSE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE
A QUICK RUN AT DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO READINGS THIS EVENING
BEFORE REBOUNDING. BUT IT/S A RACE AND A BIT OF A GUESS AS TO
THOSE FINAL READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME MORE BROAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WILL
BE FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO QUEBEC...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. 850/700MB
QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND WRN LOWER MI BY 18Z FRIDAY...
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 06Z SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS OVER NRN MI
AT 12Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...AROUND 30 TO 40PCT RH
BETWEEN 925 AND 500MB. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MSTR QUICKLY
INCREASING AFTER 12Z WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING NEARLY SATURDAY BY
18Z OVER THE WRN LAKES...AND BTWN 21Z AND 00Z OVER THE ERN LAKES.
LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE AN INFLUENCE ACRS THE WRN LAKES EARLY
FRIDAY...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -15C AND SFC-850MB WINDS
LINGER FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY...KEEPING THE ERN CWA DRY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MI. MID LVL TEMPS QUICKLY RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING FROM -22C THURSDAY TO BETWEEN -9C
AND -12C FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NRN MI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
UPPER LVL MSTR WHILE THE SFC BASED LAYER REMAINS SATURATED...
GENERATING A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
MID LVLS CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE QUICK MOVING FEATURES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND -8C BY SUNDAY.
WARMING THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINOR. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...FINALLY ALLOWING FOR MUCH MILDER SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S...ABOVE ZERO. SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 051749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 051749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 051749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 051749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN LARGELY MVFR BKN
CLOUD COVER FOR TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND REDUCED VSBYS IMPACTING THE MBL AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT PLN/APN
SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SW AND
INCREASE AND WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MBL AND TVC AREAS. AGAIN...PLN AND APN
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PUSHING 20 KNOTS BY MIDDAY (STRONGER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 051600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 051600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 051600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 051600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 051146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 051146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 051146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 051146
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 050838
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050838
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 050535
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1235 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR
PERIODS AROUND TVC/MBL POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 050205 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 050205 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS
EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HAVE REDUCED
COVERAGE OVER EASTERN UPPER AS VEERING LLEVEL WINDS HAVE KEPT MOST
SHSN ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CHIP/MACK WITH LOCALES SUCH AS ANJ
CLEARING OUT. BURST OF SHSN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOWER IS COMING
TO A CLOSE NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASINGLY CONFINING
POPS TO THE COAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. ACCUMS LOOK LESS THAN ONE
INCH GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH...ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...LOOK TO BE RIGHT IN LINE WITH
EVENING TRENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 042317 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS:  LOWEST RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS
EVENING WITH SHSN ACTIVITY SEEING AN UPTICK OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS.
EXPECT SHSN ACTIVITY TO SINK SOUTH OF PLN /GOING VFR HERE/ BEFORE
THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH PRIMARY VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT MBL-TVC.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SHSN ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT APN.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR VSBYS AT MBL/TVC...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.

SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE DRY/FLUFFY
VARIETY...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AT TVC-
MBL.

WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 12G18KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE BACKING MORE WESTERLY AND CONTINUING AROUND 10KTS FOR
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 042118
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD NIGHT AHEAD...

OVERVIEW: LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY SUPPRESSING A VERY COLD AIRMASS DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CORE OF COLDEST AIR (-26C
OR COLDER H8 AIR) IS ABOUT TO SLIP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
WNW FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
AND WINDS TURNING SHARPLY NW OFF EASTERN SUPERIOR. SOME MODEST
HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES.
NOTHING TOO HEAVY ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE SNOW BELTS HAVE SEEN DECENT VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SOME BLOWING SNOW...AND THERE IS A DECENT DIFFUSE BAND THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT BACK TO SUPERIOR WITHIN THAT
LAKE TROUGH.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST
AIR SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING...BUT WILL NUDGE UP INVERSION HEIGHTS/DEEPEN THE MIXED
LAYER FOR TIME TONIGHT. DIURNAL (OVER LAND) COMPONENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE THIS EVENING. BUT MEANWHILE...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFOREMENTIONED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH GETS SHOVED
DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY FOCUSING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY INTO
THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS OVER TOWARD THE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE LAKE HURON COAST. BUT LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED FOR A TIME TONIGHT LEADING
TO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...COUPLE OF
INCHES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

ELSEWHERE...GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING SHOULD TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST THE CWA. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
FALL BELOW ZERO...WITH THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS LIKELY FALLING TO
BELOW -10F. "WIND CHILL" READINGS WILL DIP TO -10F TO -20F AND
JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE BROAD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE CENTERED
ON INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AFTER THURSDAY...ALONG WITH ANY CORRESPONDING PCPN
CHANCES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED AT MID LVLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM. MODEL DATA SHOWS 850MB
TEMPS OF AROUND -20C OVR NRN MI THURSDAY IN WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH...QUICKLY WARMING TO BETWEEN -8C AND -10C FRIDAY AND TO BTWN
-6C AND -8C SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...HIGHS
WARMING FROM THE TEENS THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST WITH SOME SUN ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH PLAINS CLIPPER TO PUSH OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND
12Z FRIDAY... EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES AROUND 00Z SAT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS FINALLY MOISTENING ENOUGH BTW 15Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY FOR PCPN ACRS NRN MI. LAKE INFLUENCES WILL EFFECT THE WRN
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO BTWN -12C AND -14C...AND 925/850MB WINDS TURN NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH COLD ENOUGH 850 TEMPERATURES
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN UPPER AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. SIGNS OF
SPRING FINALLY NEARING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND THEN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

BKN MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES. BUT MBL WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

SOME WNW GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041551
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...COLD DAY AND NIGHT AHEAD...

WNW FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE. COLD ADVECTION
ALSO CONTINUING...CORE OF -28C OR COLDER H8 AIR ACROSS NRN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING (-29C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS) THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MODEST LAKE RESPONSE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF NRN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER PRIMARILY
WNW FLOW TODAY...VEERING MORE NW TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF ANY
CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUED
LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER/BUMP UP
INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BOLSTER
THE LAKE RESPONSE JUST A BIT. GIVEN THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND
EARLY MARCH SUN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE/FAN OUT
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION...ALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH I WILL SPREAD HIGHER POPS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FLAT THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING OFF
TO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MOST SPOTS. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE NO PLANS
CURRENTLY FOR ANY WC HEADLINES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 041125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
625 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY...BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR TVC AND ESPECIALLY MBL
TONIGHT. VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART...SOME IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TVC/MBL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040918
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040918
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE COLD AIR TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 989MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY...TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COLDER/DRIER AIR
FILTERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WITH SUB-ZERO COLD INTO NORTHERN DAKOTA/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO.  170KT JET STREAK RUNS SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SAGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS.  BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY ON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE STREAMERS IN THE COLDER AIR
UPSTREAM.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES SINK BACK
INTO FAMILIAR TERRITORY TODAY (SUB -20C) AS A SHARP/DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE CONVECTION ISSUES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS DEALING WITH LAKE CONVECTION WITH
SHARPLY COOLING TEMPERATURES...IMPACT OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LOT OF ICE COVER OUT THERE. IMPACT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTERESTING...APPEARS OVERALL BACKGROUND
FORCING MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY MINIMAL (IMPACTS OF UPPER WAVE
LARGELY BEING OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW).
BUT SOME UPTICK IN INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (TO THE
850-800MB VICINITY OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN).  BUT
THERE JUST ISN`T MUCH FETCH OUT THERE WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORIES OFF EITHER LAKE...QUITE A BIT OF FAST ICE ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER PENINSULA...A
LITTLE MORE OPEN WATER WEST OF THE MANITOU ISLANDS SO WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING AROUND TVC-CAD AND POINTS
WEST.  DIURNAL COMPONENT EXPECTED TO EXPAND CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT SNOW SHOWER MORPHOLOGY TO TREND MORE
CELLULAR WITH TIME TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT LIKELY TO GO FAR...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH MID MORNING THROUGH THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AND WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT
RECOVER MUCH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND BETTER SNOW SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY "ROTATE"
WESTWARD TOWARD THE US-131 CORRIDOR AND WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND THINK A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE OFF LAKE HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA
COUNTIES...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE ELSEWHERE.  LOOKING
AT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS WELL SO DON`T
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ARCTIC COLD SLOWLY MODERATING...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MILDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN AT DISLODGING THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS.
THE BATTLE WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
FLOW...BEATING DOWN ANY IDEAS OF RIDGING THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
MILDER AIR TO WIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MODERATE
SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. SO AFTER PERHAPS A FEW NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING..A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A
TOP END OF AN INCH OR TWO. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY MILDER READINGS...

THE PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY) AND LIKELY GRADUALLY MORPH INTO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN
THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES (CLIPPERS) WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (HOPEFULLY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS). I HAVE TO
ADMIT THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A RATHER TOUGH PATTERN TO PREDICT AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH I AM NOT AS BULLISH ABOUT TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE
50S NEXT WEEK LIKE YESTERDAY (IT MAY HAVE BEEN WISHFUL THINKING...I
WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE IT OUT JUST YET SO STAY TUNED. LOWS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040536
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREDOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040221 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040221 AAC
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREA OF CLEARING HAS SUCCESSFULLY MADE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH ALL PRIOR FZDZ AND SHSN ACTIVITY
CEASING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES...WITH SOME STREAMERS SEEN ON THE MQT 88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW EVIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHSNS AS WE NEAR
MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ALTERING THE CLOUD TRENDS /WHICH MAY ALSO
LOOK A TAD MORE OPTIMISTIC POST-FRONT/...HAVE BOOSTED WINDS SOME
AS LLEVELS BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AND TAP H9 WINDS OF 30KTS /PER APX
00Z RAOB/. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 040051 AAB
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

EXPECT REMAINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND WILL REMOVE MENTION BEYOND THIS BASED ON 00Z APX
RAOB /SATURATED TO -13C/ WITH DIMINISHING REPORTS OF FZDZ AND
DRIER LLEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BIT OF A FLARE-UP IN SHSN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
/MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. AS OF THIS WRITING/...BUT NO MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW AS THIS COMES THROUGH FOR
EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER WITH JUST FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SHSN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 032358 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT





000
FXUS63 KAPX 032358 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT




000
FXUS63 KAPX 032107
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS BATCH OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ROLLS UP THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BUT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...ALTHOUGH SOME FZDZ IS POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL. PRECIP LARGELY ENDS LATER THIS
EVENING LEAVING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE AGAIN SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS...SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER SW-W BY EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. BUT WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE GUSTY AT THE SFC
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 032107
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS BATCH OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ROLLS UP THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BUT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...ALTHOUGH SOME FZDZ IS POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL. PRECIP LARGELY ENDS LATER THIS
EVENING LEAVING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE AGAIN SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS...SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER SW-W BY EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. BUT WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE GUSTY AT THE SFC
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031850
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

NEXT CORRIDOR OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER JET FORCED) NOW WORKING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WEATHER TO HAVE
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ALREADY EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...ADVANCING
UP THROUGH SE WISCONSIN ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING
A SW-NE DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON WHATS OCCURRED THUS FAR...AND RADAR TRENDS...SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECASTS MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH (PARTICULARLY
THE SW COUNTIES)...AND MAY TRIM THOSE NUMBERS BACK JUST A BIT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS BATCH OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ROLLS UP THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BUT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...ALTHOUGH SOME FZDZ IS POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL. PRECIP LARGELY ENDS LATER THIS
EVENING LEAVING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE AGAIN SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS...SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER SW-W BY EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. BUT WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE GUSTY AT THE SFC
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031850
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

NEXT CORRIDOR OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER JET FORCED) NOW WORKING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WEATHER TO HAVE
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ALREADY EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...ADVANCING
UP THROUGH SE WISCONSIN ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING
A SW-NE DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON WHATS OCCURRED THUS FAR...AND RADAR TRENDS...SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECASTS MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH (PARTICULARLY
THE SW COUNTIES)...AND MAY TRIM THOSE NUMBERS BACK JUST A BIT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS BATCH OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ROLLS UP THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BUT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...ALTHOUGH SOME FZDZ IS POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL. PRECIP LARGELY ENDS LATER THIS
EVENING LEAVING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE AGAIN SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS...SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER SW-W BY EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. BUT WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE GUSTY AT THE SFC
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031850
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

NEXT CORRIDOR OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER JET FORCED) NOW WORKING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WEATHER TO HAVE
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ALREADY EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...ADVANCING
UP THROUGH SE WISCONSIN ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING
A SW-NE DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON WHATS OCCURRED THUS FAR...AND RADAR TRENDS...SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECASTS MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH (PARTICULARLY
THE SW COUNTIES)...AND MAY TRIM THOSE NUMBERS BACK JUST A BIT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOLID IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS BATCH OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ROLLS UP THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. BUT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED...ALTHOUGH SOME FZDZ IS POSSIBLE AT
THE TERMINAL SITES AS WELL. PRECIP LARGELY ENDS LATER THIS
EVENING LEAVING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ONCE AGAIN SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS...SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER SW-W BY EARLY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. BUT WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE GUSTY AT THE SFC
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...ADAM




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031642
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

NEXT CORRIDOR OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER JET FORCED) NOW WORKING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WEATHER TO HAVE
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ALREADY EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...ADVANCING
UP THROUGH SE WISCONSIN ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING
A SW-NE DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON WHATS OCCURRED THUS FAR...AND RADAR TRENDS...SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECASTS MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH (PARTICULARLY
THE SW COUNTIES)...AND MAY TRIM THOSE NUMBERS BACK JUST A BIT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN NRN
MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...A BAND OF SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AND WAS MOVING NORTH TOWARD PLN/APN...AFFECTING THEM 12-14Z. SNOWS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS TVC/MBL BY MID MORNING...AND BECOME HEAVIER
BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PLN/APN A BIT LATER. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z...WITH RATES AS
HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031642
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

NEXT CORRIDOR OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER JET FORCED) NOW WORKING UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WEATHER TO HAVE
FLAT OUT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ALREADY EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...ADVANCING
UP THROUGH SE WISCONSIN ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING
A SW-NE DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON WHATS OCCURRED THUS FAR...AND RADAR TRENDS...SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECASTS MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HIGH (PARTICULARLY
THE SW COUNTIES)...AND MAY TRIM THOSE NUMBERS BACK JUST A BIT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN NRN
MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...A BAND OF SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AND WAS MOVING NORTH TOWARD PLN/APN...AFFECTING THEM 12-14Z. SNOWS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS TVC/MBL BY MID MORNING...AND BECOME HEAVIER
BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PLN/APN A BIT LATER. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z...WITH RATES AS
HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
637 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN NRN
MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...A BAND OF SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AND WAS MOVING NORTH TOWARD PLN/APN...AFFECTING THEM 12-14Z. SNOWS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS TVC/MBL BY MID MORNING...AND BECOME HEAVIER
BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PLN/APN A BIT LATER. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z...WITH RATES AS
HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 031137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
637 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN NRN
MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...A BAND OF SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AND WAS MOVING NORTH TOWARD PLN/APN...AFFECTING THEM 12-14Z. SNOWS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS TVC/MBL BY MID MORNING...AND BECOME HEAVIER
BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PLN/APN A BIT LATER. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z...WITH RATES AS
HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
637 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN NRN
MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...A BAND OF SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AND WAS MOVING NORTH TOWARD PLN/APN...AFFECTING THEM 12-14Z. SNOWS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS TVC/MBL BY MID MORNING...AND BECOME HEAVIER
BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PLN/APN A BIT LATER. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z...WITH RATES AS
HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 031137
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
637 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN NRN
MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...A BAND OF SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AND WAS MOVING NORTH TOWARD PLN/APN...AFFECTING THEM 12-14Z. SNOWS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS TVC/MBL BY MID MORNING...AND BECOME HEAVIER
BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PLN/APN A BIT LATER. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 16Z-21Z...WITH RATES AS
HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN
END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030825
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BEFORE
ARRIVING IN NRN MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER
IN OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...SNOWS WILL BREAK OUT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME HEAVIER BY MIDDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE
BETWEEN 16-21Z...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR...IF NOT A
LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030825
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BEFORE
ARRIVING IN NRN MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER
IN OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...SNOWS WILL BREAK OUT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME HEAVIER BY MIDDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE
BETWEEN 16-21Z...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR...IF NOT A
LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030825
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BEFORE
ARRIVING IN NRN MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER
IN OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...SNOWS WILL BREAK OUT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME HEAVIER BY MIDDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE
BETWEEN 16-21Z...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR...IF NOT A
LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030825
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH SHALLOW RIDGING IS OVERHEAD. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN
DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NEAR SAN DIEGO. SW
FLOW STRETCHED FROM THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FAR
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE
BURIED WITHIN THIS MAIN CHANNEL OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE BEST
WAVE SEEN ENTERING WESTERN KS/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST AND SE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...INTO
MISSOURI. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP/BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED...USHERED IN VIA 50-55KT LLJ. ACROSS OUR
REGION...THERE WAS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHING UP INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER
WAA. MUCH OF THIS FORCING WAS BEING USED UP RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
SATURATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE (00Z APX SOUNDING 0.05" PWAT).
REGARDLESS...THERE WERE SOME SPOTS WHERE THE REGIONAL RADAR ECHOES
WERE REACHING GROUND...WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED. THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION/SNOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND BEST DPVA...AND ALSO IN A SECONDARY
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IOWA/IL (THE LATTER ALSO BURIED MORE DEEPLY
IN THE WAA).

SKIES WERE CLEAR LAST EVENING AND TEMPERATURES...AS EXPECTED
PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT
THOSE READINGS WERE COMING UP WITH THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE NRN STREAM WAVE WORKING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIG FURTHER INTO
THE NC PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE BETTER
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM WESTERN NE/KS LIFT UP TOWARD LAKES
SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A TIGHTENED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER JET STRENGTHENING AS IT WORKS IN OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY...BEFORE ULTIMATELY LAYING OUT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
BUT BECOME LOST IN THE MAIN SFC LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BE IN
ONTARIO. DEEP LAYER WAA WORKS IN OVER MAINLY LOWER MICHIGAN...STILL
TRYING TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...USING UP SOME FORCING TO DO
SO...BUT WILL GET HELP FROM MORE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING GULF
MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS REALLY GOING TO WIND UP BEING
TIED TO DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH JUST STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET. THE LEFT EXIT REGION WORKS IN ACROSS FAR
NW LOWER AND MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST OF
AIR AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESIDE....WITH A WETTER SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CWA.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE
ELEVATED WARM FRONT...THE BETTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND SW. THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
TIME FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE REGION BETWEEN
17Z AND 21Z. THE MAIN FORCING WILL DEPART DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE UPPER JET. AT THIS POINT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRIP OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
SNOWS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO
GAYLORD AND ALPENA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FALL OFF INTO THE NIGHT
WITH SKIES MAYBE EVEN TRYING TO CLEAR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL
END IN ALL AREAS FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MUCH EXCITEMENT
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE REGION FOR LAKE
EFFECT...BUT ALL OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AT THIS
POINT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. WILL ONLY GO WITH A
SMALL CHANCE IN THE WNW/NW FLOW REGIMES.

ALL-IN-ALL...THE ONGOING ADVISORY LOOKS SOLID. CAN SEE 4-5" ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...RANGING TO 1-3" NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY TODAY WHERE
THE TOTAL FORCING IS LESS AND SNOW RATIOS LOWER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL REACH MORE OF THE ARCTIC
TYPE...4-8F IN EASTERN UPPER...TO THE TEENS NEAR THE SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE ARCTIC COLD FOLLOWED BY WARMING...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. LUCKILY THE COLD AIR
WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AND BE GONE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW (FINALLY). THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DROPS DOWN THROUGH
THE FLOW (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION OF
THE FROZEN OVER LAKES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT YIELDING LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
SHOULD THEN END ANY LAKE EFFECT NONSENSE THURSDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY (WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION). HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS
BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW DUE TO BRISK WINDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MILDER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ALTERNATING BOUTS OF WARM ADVECTION AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS BUT REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...THOUGH SOME SPOTS MAY
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING
FARTHER OUT INTO THE EXTENDED...IT LOOKS WARM...LIKE 50S WARM (MAYBE
EVEN WARMER) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MIGRATES
TO THE EAST (STAY TUNED PEOPLE...HOPE IS ON THE HORIZON).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BEFORE
ARRIVING IN NRN MICHIGAN LATE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER
IN OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO NRN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...SNOWS WILL BREAK OUT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME HEAVIER BY MIDDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND MAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE
BETWEEN 16-21Z...WITH RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH PER HOUR...IF NOT A
LITTLE HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE 3-4". THE SNOW MAY END AS A
BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR ALL BUT PLN. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS TVC/MBL.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SE AND AOB 10KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN VEER MORE W/NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE TEENS.
WHILE WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY...WINDS WILL BE REALLY INCREASING JUST
ABOVE THE SFC...AND LLWS NEEDED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030308
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY WERE DROPPING FAST DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY, AS THEY COULD
DROP A LITTLE MORE, JUST BEFORE THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND EVEN RAISE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BEST IDEA SO FAR IS THAT MOST TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BETWEEN -5F AND +5F, WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROP TO AROUND
-10F AT WORST CASE. TIMING OF THE SNOW AND CLOUDS STILL LOOKS
GOOD, SO NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

...CLEAR EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND SNOW LATE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1036MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS...COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN.  SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MID AFTERNOON AS PRETTY DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  WARM
ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THIS SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TUESDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH TIME.  MAY EVEN SEE SNOW BEGIN
TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS MAY ARRIVE AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW TO ASSIST WITH THIS PROCESS.  SO
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING RIGHT AROUND THE
MORNING DRIVE TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING...
WITH A SHORT WINDOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS (MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT THIS EVENING...THEN RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TRY TO REFLECT THAT IDEA
IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE.  THINK LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SHOULD WORK FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS SINKING BRIEFLY NEAR ZERO BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
TUESDAY WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTH/EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT /AND MAYBE LAST?/
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSED
AROUND OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM.  FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DETAILS: SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  DEEP LAYER FORCING ENHANCED BY
160+ KNOT UPPER JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.  NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...RESULTING IN AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE AND LACK OF ANY
DEFINED BACKSIDE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION.  STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AIDED BY IMPRESSIVE MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
QUICKLY DEVELOPING SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  NOTICEABLE PACIFIC OCEAN CONNECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/ WITH PWATS OF 0.50-0.60 INCHES
AND MID LEVEL MIXING RATIO/S OF 3-4 G/KG.  WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SHIFT SNOW RATIO/S LOWER /WETTER/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN SWINGS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER DURING
THE MORNING...PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE SWINGING
BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  INSTABILITY
ALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE DRY SLOT.  BEST
OMEGA FOCUSED WITHIN THE DGZ DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHEN BEST
DENDRITES WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  OVERALL...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS /2-3 INCHES/ OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA WHERE SNOW RATIO/S WILL BE LOWER AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL
RESULT IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING STRIPS
OUT LATE TUESDAY WITH DRY SLOT...WITH SOUNDINGS POINTING TO AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.  THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMBINED WITH
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS /ALTHOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LAKE
ICE WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY/.   ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME LOOK LIGHT.  TEMPERATURE-WISE...BACK TO THE ICE BOX FOR
MID WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO.  GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S TO EVEN LOW 30S AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. LOOKS TO BE ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW
AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO FAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE CLOUDS WON`T BE BELOW VFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 12Z
SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

THE SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOK TO BEGIN AFFECTING MBL FIRST
AROUND 11Z WITH THE TVC SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON UNTIL AROUND 00Z.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JSL




000
FXUS63 KAPX 030308
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY WERE DROPPING FAST DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY, AS THEY COULD
DROP A LITTLE MORE, JUST BEFORE THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND EVEN RAISE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BEST IDEA SO FAR IS THAT MOST TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BETWEEN -5F AND +5F, WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROP TO AROUND
-10F AT WORST CASE. TIMING OF THE SNOW AND CLOUDS STILL LOOKS
GOOD, SO NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

...CLEAR EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND SNOW LATE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1036MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS...COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN.  SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MID AFTERNOON AS PRETTY DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  WARM
ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THIS SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TUESDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH TIME.  MAY EVEN SEE SNOW BEGIN
TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS MAY ARRIVE AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW TO ASSIST WITH THIS PROCESS.  SO
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING RIGHT AROUND THE
MORNING DRIVE TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING...
WITH A SHORT WINDOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS (MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT THIS EVENING...THEN RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TRY TO REFLECT THAT IDEA
IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE.  THINK LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SHOULD WORK FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS SINKING BRIEFLY NEAR ZERO BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
TUESDAY WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTH/EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT /AND MAYBE LAST?/
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSED
AROUND OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM.  FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DETAILS: SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  DEEP LAYER FORCING ENHANCED BY
160+ KNOT UPPER JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.  NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...RESULTING IN AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE AND LACK OF ANY
DEFINED BACKSIDE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION.  STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AIDED BY IMPRESSIVE MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
QUICKLY DEVELOPING SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  NOTICEABLE PACIFIC OCEAN CONNECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/ WITH PWATS OF 0.50-0.60 INCHES
AND MID LEVEL MIXING RATIO/S OF 3-4 G/KG.  WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SHIFT SNOW RATIO/S LOWER /WETTER/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN SWINGS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER DURING
THE MORNING...PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE SWINGING
BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  INSTABILITY
ALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE DRY SLOT.  BEST
OMEGA FOCUSED WITHIN THE DGZ DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHEN BEST
DENDRITES WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  OVERALL...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS /2-3 INCHES/ OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA WHERE SNOW RATIO/S WILL BE LOWER AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL
RESULT IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING STRIPS
OUT LATE TUESDAY WITH DRY SLOT...WITH SOUNDINGS POINTING TO AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.  THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMBINED WITH
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS /ALTHOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LAKE
ICE WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY/.   ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME LOOK LIGHT.  TEMPERATURE-WISE...BACK TO THE ICE BOX FOR
MID WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO.  GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S TO EVEN LOW 30S AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. LOOKS TO BE ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW
AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO FAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE CLOUDS WON`T BE BELOW VFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 12Z
SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

THE SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOK TO BEGIN AFFECTING MBL FIRST
AROUND 11Z WITH THE TVC SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON UNTIL AROUND 00Z.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030308
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY WERE DROPPING FAST DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY, AS THEY COULD
DROP A LITTLE MORE, JUST BEFORE THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND EVEN RAISE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BEST IDEA SO FAR IS THAT MOST TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BETWEEN -5F AND +5F, WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROP TO AROUND
-10F AT WORST CASE. TIMING OF THE SNOW AND CLOUDS STILL LOOKS
GOOD, SO NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

...CLEAR EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND SNOW LATE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1036MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS...COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN.  SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MID AFTERNOON AS PRETTY DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  WARM
ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THIS SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TUESDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH TIME.  MAY EVEN SEE SNOW BEGIN
TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS MAY ARRIVE AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW TO ASSIST WITH THIS PROCESS.  SO
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING RIGHT AROUND THE
MORNING DRIVE TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING...
WITH A SHORT WINDOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS (MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT THIS EVENING...THEN RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TRY TO REFLECT THAT IDEA
IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE.  THINK LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SHOULD WORK FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS SINKING BRIEFLY NEAR ZERO BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
TUESDAY WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTH/EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT /AND MAYBE LAST?/
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSED
AROUND OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM.  FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DETAILS: SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  DEEP LAYER FORCING ENHANCED BY
160+ KNOT UPPER JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.  NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...RESULTING IN AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE AND LACK OF ANY
DEFINED BACKSIDE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION.  STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AIDED BY IMPRESSIVE MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
QUICKLY DEVELOPING SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  NOTICEABLE PACIFIC OCEAN CONNECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/ WITH PWATS OF 0.50-0.60 INCHES
AND MID LEVEL MIXING RATIO/S OF 3-4 G/KG.  WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SHIFT SNOW RATIO/S LOWER /WETTER/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN SWINGS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER DURING
THE MORNING...PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE SWINGING
BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  INSTABILITY
ALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE DRY SLOT.  BEST
OMEGA FOCUSED WITHIN THE DGZ DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHEN BEST
DENDRITES WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  OVERALL...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS /2-3 INCHES/ OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA WHERE SNOW RATIO/S WILL BE LOWER AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL
RESULT IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING STRIPS
OUT LATE TUESDAY WITH DRY SLOT...WITH SOUNDINGS POINTING TO AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.  THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMBINED WITH
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS /ALTHOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LAKE
ICE WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY/.   ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME LOOK LIGHT.  TEMPERATURE-WISE...BACK TO THE ICE BOX FOR
MID WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO.  GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S TO EVEN LOW 30S AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. LOOKS TO BE ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW
AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO FAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE CLOUDS WON`T BE BELOW VFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 12Z
SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

THE SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOK TO BEGIN AFFECTING MBL FIRST
AROUND 11Z WITH THE TVC SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON UNTIL AROUND 00Z.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JSL





000
FXUS63 KAPX 030308
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THEY WERE DROPPING FAST DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY, AS THEY COULD
DROP A LITTLE MORE, JUST BEFORE THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND EVEN RAISE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. BEST IDEA SO FAR IS THAT MOST TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BETWEEN -5F AND +5F, WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROP TO AROUND
-10F AT WORST CASE. TIMING OF THE SNOW AND CLOUDS STILL LOOKS
GOOD, SO NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

...CLEAR EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND SNOW LATE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1036MB HIGH OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS...COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN.  SKIES WERE MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT
MID AFTERNOON AS PRETTY DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  WARM
ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THIS SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TUESDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH TIME.  MAY EVEN SEE SNOW BEGIN
TO BREAK OUT LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS MAY ARRIVE AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW TO ASSIST WITH THIS PROCESS.  SO
COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING RIGHT AROUND THE
MORNING DRIVE TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING...
WITH A SHORT WINDOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS (MOSTLY SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT THIS EVENING...THEN RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TRY TO REFLECT THAT IDEA
IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE.  THINK LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SHOULD WORK FOR MOST AREAS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME OF THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS SINKING BRIEFLY NEAR ZERO BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
TUESDAY WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL.  LOW CONFIDENCE FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION:  SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTH/EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT /AND MAYBE LAST?/
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MIDWEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSED
AROUND OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM.  FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DETAILS: SHEARING OUT SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WHILE STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  DEEP LAYER FORCING ENHANCED BY
160+ KNOT UPPER JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING.  NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...RESULTING IN AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE AND LACK OF ANY
DEFINED BACKSIDE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION.  STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AIDED BY IMPRESSIVE MOIST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
QUICKLY DEVELOPING SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  NOTICEABLE PACIFIC OCEAN CONNECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/ WITH PWATS OF 0.50-0.60 INCHES
AND MID LEVEL MIXING RATIO/S OF 3-4 G/KG.  WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SHIFT SNOW RATIO/S LOWER /WETTER/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN SWINGS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER DURING
THE MORNING...PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE SWINGING
BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  INSTABILITY
ALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE DRY SLOT.  BEST
OMEGA FOCUSED WITHIN THE DGZ DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHEN BEST
DENDRITES WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  OVERALL...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH
SNOWFALL...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS /2-3 INCHES/ OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA WHERE SNOW RATIO/S WILL BE LOWER AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL
RESULT IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING STRIPS
OUT LATE TUESDAY WITH DRY SLOT...WITH SOUNDINGS POINTING TO AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES.  THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
LOWER WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMBINED WITH
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS /ALTHOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE AND LAKE
ICE WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY/.   ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THIS TIME LOOK LIGHT.  TEMPERATURE-WISE...BACK TO THE ICE BOX FOR
MID WEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO.  GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S TO EVEN LOW 30S AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES. LOOKS TO BE ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW
AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO FAR THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE CLOUDS WON`T BE BELOW VFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 12Z
SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

THE SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOK TO BEGIN AFFECTING MBL FIRST
AROUND 11Z WITH THE TVC SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON UNTIL AROUND 00Z.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ008-
     015>036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JSL




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