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000
FXUS63 KAPX 282327
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
727 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA
EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT. MICHIGAN IS IN A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW HEADS INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES INTO LOWER MI BY FRI MORNING AND INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE THIS EXITS FRI
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. MANISTEE
DID MANAGE TO GET SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE PCPN SHIELD
WHICH THE DRY AIR HAS MANAGED TO KEEP MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD IN SOME
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT
TO DISLODGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
WILL KEEP A SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT...A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
TREK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED MOISTURE TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE AS THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. QCONV INDICATES THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS PROVIDED THE
MOISTURE DOES LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS POINT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
WITH THIS WAVE, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF IT. ONCE
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, IT WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY, SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES SHOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS THERE FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR. SPOTTY -SHRA TONIGHT NEAR TVC/MBL.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT MOVES
EAST. OUTERMOST BAND OF -SHRA ON THE NORTH FLANK OF THE LOW WILL
REACHED TVC/HTL/STANDISH. -SHRA ACTIVITY MAY HANG ON INTO FRI
MORNING...BEFORE ENDING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE FORECAST.

LIGHT NE TO E WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND MANISTEE/FRANKFORT
AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281856
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
256 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA
EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT. MICHIGAN IS IN A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW HEADS INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES INTO LOWER MI BY FRI MORNING AND INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE THIS EXITS FRI
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. MANISTEE
DID MANAGE TO GET SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE PCPN SHIELD
WHICH THE DRY AIR HAS MANAGED TO KEEP MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD IN SOME
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT
TO DISLODGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
WILL KEEP A SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT...A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
TREK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED MOISTURE TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE AS THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. QCONV INDICATES THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS PROVIDED THE
MOISTURE DOES LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS POINT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
WITH THIS WAVE, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF IT. ONCE
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, IT WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CANDIAN PRARIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY, SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES SHOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS THERE FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH AT MBL AND WILL HAVE SOME
LOWER VFR CLOUDS THERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE RULE ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES.
DID HAVE SOME GUSTS INTO THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND MANISTEE/FRANKFORT
AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281856
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
256 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA
EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE CORN BELT. MICHIGAN IS IN A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THIS MORNING. THE CLOSED LOW HEADS INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVES INTO LOWER MI BY FRI MORNING AND INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRI AFTERNOON.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ACROSS LOWER MI TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE THIS EXITS FRI
AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. MANISTEE
DID MANAGE TO GET SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE PCPN SHIELD
WHICH THE DRY AIR HAS MANAGED TO KEEP MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SW AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH FRI MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO DRY THINGS
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD IN SOME
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT
TO DISLODGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
WILL KEEP A SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT...A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO SLIDE FROM
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE LOW WILL
TREK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED MOISTURE TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE AS THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA. QCONV INDICATES THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO CREATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS PROVIDED THE
MOISTURE DOES LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS POINT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
WITH THIS WAVE, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF IT. ONCE
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, IT WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CANDIAN PRARIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY, SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE MODEL
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES SHOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS THERE FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH AT MBL AND WILL HAVE SOME
LOWER VFR CLOUDS THERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE RULE ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES.
DID HAVE SOME GUSTS INTO THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND MANISTEE/FRANKFORT
AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281633
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1233 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AS SHOWERS KEEP CREEPING NORTHWARD AND ARE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS
NORTHWARD. STILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...MORE CLOUDS TODAY BUT MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES...

PATTERN OVERVIEW: WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIPPING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CYCLING VERY DRY AIR THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN (SEE OUR INCREDIBLY DRY 00Z APX SOUNDING WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 0.11).

UPSTREAM...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHEARING VORTICITY
MAX AND ATTENDING SFC LOW IS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH IOWA. SEVERAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARC AROUND THE LOW FROM
THE NRN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. LEADING
BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LIFTING UP THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT BUT STEADILY THINNING AND GETTING SHEARED OUT WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. SO
DESPITE THE MORE OMINOUS LOOKING REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...HAVE TO GO
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN TO FIND ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH THE REMNANT WAVE
EVENTUALLY SLIPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO ROTATE UP INTO
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIXED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES INTO CANADA...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR
CYCLING THROUGH THE REGION...SUSPECT WE SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OR AT BEST SOME VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS GRAZE THE M-55
CORRIDOR COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE LOWERED INHERITED POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THICKER MID CLOUD
COVER WILL ADVANCE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THINNER HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FILTERED SUN TODAY ACROSS THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA.
BUT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GET SHOVED BACK NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS
BRINGING SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS
TODAY. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DISMAL.

DETAILS: BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE
BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST (CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH) WITH ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COME SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT
START TO THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DETAILS BEGIN TO BECOME MUDDY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A SIMILARLY FLAVORED
SYSTEM TO TODAY`S DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY PRECLUDES MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF
IF/WHEN/HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE APLENTY...INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST TO
THE NORTH AND A DRY E/ENE WIND...LIKELY PREVENTING THIS FROM BEING A
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72...BUT IS WORTH CHECKING BACK IN FUTURE UPDATES TO SEE
HOW THIS EVOLVES.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS (COOLEST NEAR THE
LAKESHORES). FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHES WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING IN FROM CANADA...ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE
MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO DRAW ATTENTION FROM A PRECIP
STANDPOINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR TWO PINWHEEL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF RENEWED TROUGHING OVERHEAD. DETAILS ARE CERTAINLY
FAR FROM CLEAR AS TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALL OF WHICH WON`T LIKELY
ENDING UP WET.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH AT MBL AND WILL HAVE SOME
LOWER VFR CLOUDS THERE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE RULE ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES.
DID HAVE SOME GUSTS INTO THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY. BUT
WINDS/WAVES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND
MANISTEE/FRANKFORT AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 281135
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
735 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE BATCH OF SHOWERS ADVANCING NORTHWARD OUT OF
SW LOWER MICHIGAN. SUBTLE WAVE NOTED IN THE REFLECTIVITY DATA
RUNNING UP THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS LEADING TO A BIT MORE
ENHANCED PRECIP. UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT IT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PUSH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE SW COUNTIES...OR IF IT FIZZLES. WILL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...MORE CLOUDS TODAY BUT MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES...

PATTERN OVERVIEW: WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIPPING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CYCLING VERY DRY AIR THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN (SEE OUR INCREDIBLY DRY 00Z APX SOUNDING WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 0.11).

UPSTREAM...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHEARING VORTICITY
MAX AND ATTENDING SFC LOW IS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH IOWA. SEVERAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARC AROUND THE LOW FROM
THE NRN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. LEADING
BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LIFTING UP THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT BUT STEADILY THINNING AND GETTING SHEARED OUT WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. SO
DESPITE THE MORE OMINOUS LOOKING REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...HAVE TO GO
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN TO FIND ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH THE REMNANT WAVE
EVENTUALLY SLIPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO ROTATE UP INTO
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIXED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES INTO CANADA...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR
CYCLING THROUGH THE REGION...SUSPECT WE SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OR AT BEST SOME VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS GRAZE THE M-55
CORRIDOR COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE LOWERED INHERITED POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THICKER MID CLOUD
COVER WILL ADVANCE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THINNER HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FILTERED SUN TODAY ACROSS THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA.
BUT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GET SHOVED BACK NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS
BRINGING SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS
TODAY. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DISMAL.

DETAILS: BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE
BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST (CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH) WITH ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COME SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT
START TO THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DETAILS BEGIN TO BECOME MUDDY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A SIMILARLY FLAVORED
SYSTEM TO TODAY`S DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY PRECLUDES MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF
IF/WHEN/HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE APLENTY...INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST TO
THE NORTH AND A DRY E/ENE WIND...LIKELY PREVENTING THIS FROM BEING A
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72...BUT IS WORTH CHECKING BACK IN FUTURE UPDATES TO SEE
HOW THIS EVOLVES.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS (COOLEST NEAR THE
LAKESHORES). FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHES WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING IN FROM CANADA...ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE
MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO DRAW ATTENTION FROM A PRECIP
STANDPOINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR TWO PINWHEEL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF RENEWED TROUGHING OVERHEAD. DETAILS ARE CERTAINLY
FAR FROM CLEAR AS TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALL OF WHICH WON`T LIKELY
ENDING UP WET.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. STORM SYSTEM WINDING DOWN IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING
WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER AT THE TERMINAL
SITES TODAY. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL BANDS OF THINNING SHOWERS THAT
WILL TRY TO PUSH UP INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FIXED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SHOULD KEEP ANY RAINFALL MOSTLY OUT OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH MBL AND TVC COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES.

WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY. BUT
WINDS/WAVES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND
MANISTEE/FRANKFORT AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280914
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
514 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...MORE CLOUDS TODAY BUT MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES...

PATTERN OVERVIEW: WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIPPING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CYCLING VERY DRY AIR THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN (SEE OUR INCREDIBLY DRY 00Z APX SOUNDING WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 0.11).

UPSTREAM...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHEARING VORTICITY
MAX AND ATTENDING SFC LOW IS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH IOWA. SEVERAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARC AROUND THE LOW FROM
THE NRN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. LEADING
BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LIFTING UP THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT BUT STEADILY THINNING AND GETTING SHEARED OUT WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. SO
DESPITE THE MORE OMINOUS LOOKING REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...HAVE TO GO
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN TO FIND ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH THE REMNANT WAVE
EVENTUALLY SLIPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO ROTATE UP INTO
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIXED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES INTO CANADA...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR
CYCLING THROUGH THE REGION...SUSPECT WE SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OR AT BEST SOME VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS GRAZE THE M-55
CORRIDOR COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE LOWERED INHERITED POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THICKER MID CLOUD
COVER WILL ADVANCE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THINNER HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FILTERED SUN TODAY ACROSS THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA.
BUT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GET SHOVED BACK NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS
BRINGING SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS
TODAY. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DISMAL.

DETAILS: BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE
BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST (CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH) WITH ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COME SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT
START TO THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DETAILS BEGIN TO BECOME MUDDY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A SIMILARLY FLAVORED
SYSTEM TO TODAY`S DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY PRECLUDES MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF
IF/WHEN/HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE APLENTY...INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST TO
THE NORTH AND A DRY E/ENE WIND...LIKELY PREVENTING THIS FROM BEING A
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72...BUT IS WORTH CHECKING BACK IN FUTURE UPDATES TO SEE
HOW THIS EVOLVES.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS (COOLEST NEAR THE
LAKESHORES). FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHES WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING IN FROM CANADA...ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE
MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO DRAW ATTENTION FROM A PRECIP
STANDPOINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR TWO PINWHEEL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF RENEWED TROUGHING OVERHEAD. DETAILS ARE CERTAINLY
FAR FROM CLEAR AS TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALL OF WHICH WON`T LIKELY
ENDING UP WET.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT. STORM SYSTEM WINDING DOWN IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING
WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER AT THE TERMINAL
SITES TODAY. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL BANDS OF THINNING SHOWERS THAT
WILL TRY TO PUSH UP INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FIXED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES SHOULD KEEP ANY RAINFALL MOSTLY OUT OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH MBL AND TVC COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES.

WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY. BUT
WINDS/WAVES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND
MANISTEE/FRANKFORT AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280732
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...MORE CLOUDS TODAY BUT MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES...

PATTERN OVERVIEW: WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
SLIPPING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. LARGE EXPANSE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CYCLING VERY DRY AIR THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN (SEE OUR INCREDIBLY DRY 00Z APX SOUNDING WITH A PWAT
VALUE OF 0.11).

UPSTREAM...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHEARING VORTICITY
MAX AND ATTENDING SFC LOW IS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH IOWA. SEVERAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARC AROUND THE LOW FROM
THE NRN PLAINS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. LEADING
BAND OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LIFTING UP THROUGH SW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT BUT STEADILY THINNING AND GETTING SHEARED OUT WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. SO
DESPITE THE MORE OMINOUS LOOKING REGIONAL RADAR PLOT...HAVE TO GO
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN TO FIND ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH THE REMNANT WAVE
EVENTUALLY SLIPPING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO ROTATE UP INTO
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
FIXED ACROSS THE NRN LAKES INTO CANADA...DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR
CYCLING THROUGH THE REGION...SUSPECT WE SEE LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES OR AT BEST SOME VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS GRAZE THE M-55
CORRIDOR COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE LOWERED INHERITED POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THICKER MID CLOUD
COVER WILL ADVANCE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THINNER HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FILTERED SUN TODAY ACROSS THE NRN REACHES OF THE CWA.
BUT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING
IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GET SHOVED BACK NORTH
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS
BRINGING SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS
TODAY. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DISMAL.

DETAILS: BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE
BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST (CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH) WITH ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING THAT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE COME SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A PLEASANT
START TO THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DETAILS BEGIN TO BECOME MUDDY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A SIMILARLY FLAVORED
SYSTEM TO TODAY`S DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY PRECLUDES MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF
IF/WHEN/HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIMITING
FACTORS WILL BE APLENTY...INCLUDING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST TO
THE NORTH AND A DRY E/ENE WIND...LIKELY PREVENTING THIS FROM BEING A
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-72...BUT IS WORTH CHECKING BACK IN FUTURE UPDATES TO SEE
HOW THIS EVOLVES.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S FOR MOST SPOTS (COOLEST NEAR THE
LAKESHORES). FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHES WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING IN FROM CANADA...ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE
MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO DRAW ATTENTION FROM A PRECIP
STANDPOINT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR TWO PINWHEEL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF RENEWED TROUGHING OVERHEAD. DETAILS ARE CERTAINLY
FAR FROM CLEAR AS TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WED NIGHT...ALL OF WHICH WON`T LIKELY
ENDING UP WET.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN
FROM SW TO NE. SOME CHANCES FOR -SHRA NEAR MBL ON THURSDAY...BUT
EVEN THAT WILL BE FALLING FROM A VFR MID-CLOUD DECK. EASTERLY
BREEZES UP TO 10KT THRU THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES TODAY. BUT
WINDS/WAVES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEATHER-WISE...CLOUDIER SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO AREAS AROUND
MANISTEE/FRANKFORT AND AROUND TAWAS ON THE HURON SIDE. BUT OVERALL
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280343
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1143 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

QUIET. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THICKEN...IN ADVANCE OF
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. SOME
WEAKENING VIRGA IS SEEN ALONG A GRB-GRR LINE. ACTUAL PRECIP...
REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...IS ROTATING INTO THE MKE- BEH AREA.
NORTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...AND WILL BE HINDERED BY
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERHEAD (00Z APX OBSERVED PWAT 0.11...850MB
DEW PT DEPRESSION 30C). DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP CHANCES NEAR
MBL/CAD/GLADWIN UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER. CERTAINLY NOTHING TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL THE STORM RESIDE IN THAT AIR MASS
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER/SFC LOWS TO OUR
WEST. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WE HAVE
LOADS OF DRY AIR AROUND WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE CIRRUS WORKING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. THIS CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FURTHER
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE TONIGHT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE AT A FEW SPRINKLES ROAMING THE M-55 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THAT AS THE LOWEST
8-9KFT ARE STILL GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S CLOSER
TO THE THICKER CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...994 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER QUIET.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
(THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER NORTH...ARG). EITHER WAY...LOTS
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO VERY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
CHILLY 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY,
BUT THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS 70-80% RH WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOMETHING AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES GO BY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY
AS THE HIGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY, A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE GFS KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS
IT DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PRECEDES TO CUT IT OFF.
SO THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN
FROM SW TO NE. SOME CHANCES FOR -SHRA NEAR MBL ON THURSDAY...BUT
EVEN THAT WILL BE FALLING FROM A VFR MID-CLOUD DECK. EASTERLY
BREEZES UP TO 10KT THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY N/NE
CONDITIONS THROUGH NW LOWER AND THE MANITOU ISLANDS. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO SOME DEGREE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO STRETCH
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT
AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND THE SAGINAW BAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DICKSON





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280202
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

QUIET. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THICKEN...IN ADVANCE OF
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. SOME
WEAKENING VIRGA IS SEEN ALONG A GRB-GRR LINE. ACTUAL PRECIP...
REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...IS ROTATING INTO THE MKE- BEH AREA.
NORTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...AND WILL BE HINDERED BY
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERHEAD (00Z APX OBSERVED PWAT 0.11...850MB
DEW PT DEPRESSION 30C). DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP CHANCES NEAR
MBL/CAD/GLADWIN UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER. CERTAINLY NOTHING TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL THE STORM RESIDE IN THAT AIR MASS
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER/SFC LOWS TO OUR
WEST. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WE HAVE
LOADS OF DRY AIR AROUND WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE CIRRUS WORKING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. THIS CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FURTHER
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE TONIGHT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE AT A FEW SPRINKLES ROAMING THE M-55 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THAT AS THE LOWEST
8-9KFT ARE STILL GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S CLOSER
TO THE THICKER CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...994 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER QUIET.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
(THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER NORTH...ARG). EITHER WAY...LOTS
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO VERY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
CHILLY 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY,
BUT THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS 70-80% RH WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOMETHING AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES GO BY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY
AS THE HIGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY, A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE GFS KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS
IT DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PRECEDES TO CUT IT OFF.
SO THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN
FROM SW TO NE. SOME CHANCES FOR -SHRA NEAR MBL ON THURSDAY...BUT
EVEN THAT WILL BE FALLING FROM A VFR MID-CLOUD DECK. EASTERLY
BREEZES UP TO 10KT THRU THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY N/NE
CONDITIONS THROUGH NW LOWER AND THE MANITOU ISLANDS. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO SOME DEGREE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO STRETCH
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT
AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND THE SAGINAW BAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DICKSON





000
FXUS63 KAPX 280202
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1002 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

QUIET. MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY THICKEN...IN ADVANCE OF
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. SOME
WEAKENING VIRGA IS SEEN ALONG A GRB-GRR LINE. ACTUAL PRECIP...
REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...IS ROTATING INTO THE MKE- BEH AREA.
NORTHWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...AND WILL BE HINDERED BY
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERHEAD (00Z APX OBSERVED PWAT 0.11...850MB
DEW PT DEPRESSION 30C). DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIP CHANCES NEAR
MBL/CAD/GLADWIN UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN UNTIL MIDDAY OR LATER. CERTAINLY NOTHING TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL THE STORM RESIDE IN THAT AIR MASS
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER/SFC LOWS TO OUR
WEST. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WE HAVE
LOADS OF DRY AIR AROUND WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE CIRRUS WORKING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. THIS CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FURTHER
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE TONIGHT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE AT A FEW SPRINKLES ROAMING THE M-55 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THAT AS THE LOWEST
8-9KFT ARE STILL GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S CLOSER
TO THE THICKER CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...994 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER QUIET.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
(THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER NORTH...ARG). EITHER WAY...LOTS
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO VERY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
CHILLY 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY,
BUT THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS 70-80% RH WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOMETHING AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES GO BY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY
AS THE HIGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY, A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE GFS KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS
IT DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PRECEDES TO CUT IT OFF.
SO THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN
FROM SW TO NE. SOME CHANCES FOR -SHRA NEAR MBL ON THURSDAY...BUT
EVEN THAT WILL BE FALLING FROM A VFR MID-CLOUD DECK. EASTERLY
BREEZES UP TO 10KT THRU THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY N/NE
CONDITIONS THROUGH NW LOWER AND THE MANITOU ISLANDS. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO SOME DEGREE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO STRETCH
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT
AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND THE SAGINAW BAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DICKSON





000
FXUS63 KAPX 272327
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
727 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL THE STORM RESIDE IN THAT AIR MASS
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER/SFC LOWS TO OUR
WEST. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WE HAVE
LOADS OF DRY AIR AROUND WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE CIRRUS WORKING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. THIS CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FURTHER
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE TONIGHT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE AT A FEW SPRINKLES ROAMING THE M-55 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THAT AS THE LOWEST
8-9KFT ARE STILL GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S CLOSER
TO THE THICKER CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...994 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER QUIET.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
(THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER NORTH...ARG). EITHER WAY...LOTS
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO VERY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
CHILLY 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY,
BUT THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS 70-80% RH WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOMETHING AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES GO BY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY
AS THE HIGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY, A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE GFS KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS
IT DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PRECEDES TO CUT IT OFF.
SO THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AWAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN
FROM SW TO NE. SOME CHANCES FOR -SHRA NEAR MBL ON THURSDAY...BUT
EVEN THAT WILL BE FALLING FROM A VFR MID-CLOUD DECK. EASTERLY
BREEZES UP TO 10KT THRU THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY N/NE
CONDITIONS THROUGH NW LOWER AND THE MANITOU ISLANDS. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO SOME DEGREE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO STRETCH
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT
AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND THE SAGINAW BAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...DICKSON





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271920
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL THE STORM RESIDE IN THAT AIR MASS
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER/SFC LOWS TO OUR
WEST. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WE HAVE
LOADS OF DRY AIR AROUND WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE CIRRUS WORKING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. THIS CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FURTHER
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE TONIGHT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE AT A FEW SPRINKLES ROAMING THE M-55 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THAT AS THE LOWEST
8-9KFT ARE STILL GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S CLOSER
TO THE THICKER CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...994 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER QUIET.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
(THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER NORTH...ARG). EITHER WAY...LOTS
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO VERY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
CHILLY 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY,
BUT THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS 70-80% RH WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOMETHING AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES GO BY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY
AS THE HIGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY, A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE GFS KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS
IT DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PRECEDES TO CUT IT OFF.
SO THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...VFR...

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND A
RELATIVELY LIGHT NE/E WIND...GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL INFILTRATE THE GTV BAY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WILL THICKEN INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY N/NE
CONDITIONS THROUGH NW LOWER AND THE MANITOU ISLANDS. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO SOME DEGREE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO STRETCH
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT
AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND THE SAGINAW BAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...DICKSON





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271920
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL THE STORM RESIDE IN THAT AIR MASS
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER/SFC LOWS TO OUR
WEST. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. WE HAVE
LOADS OF DRY AIR AROUND WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE CIRRUS WORKING
INTO THE GTV BAY AREA. THIS CIRRUS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS THICKEN UP FURTHER
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 BY LATE TONIGHT. SUPPOSE THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE AT A FEW SPRINKLES ROAMING THE M-55 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE STACKED AGAINST THAT AS THE LOWEST
8-9KFT ARE STILL GOING TO BE EXTREMELY DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S CLOSER
TO THE THICKER CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...994 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER QUIET.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
(THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER NORTH...ARG). EITHER WAY...LOTS
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM AN EASTERLY FLOW...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO VERY LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS TO IMPINGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/MOVES AWAY TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
COULD BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
CHILLY 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY. THE MID LEVELS ARE DRY,
BUT THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS 70-80% RH WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOMETHING AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVES GO BY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY
AS THE HIGH MOVES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY, A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODELS, HOWEVER, HAVE TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE GFS KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS
IT DIVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PRECEDES TO CUT IT OFF.
SO THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...VFR...

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND A
RELATIVELY LIGHT NE/E WIND...GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL INFILTRATE THE GTV BAY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WILL THICKEN INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLIER TODAY FOR SOME GUSTY N/NE
CONDITIONS THROUGH NW LOWER AND THE MANITOU ISLANDS. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO SOME DEGREE LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO STRETCH
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MICHIGAN WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AROUND AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT
AREAS AROUND MANISTEE AND THE SAGINAW BAY. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...DICKSON





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. SUN IS SHINING...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE
CIRRUS SNEAKING INTO THE MANISTEE/CADILLAC AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...NEAR 50S
IN EASTERN UPPER...WARMING SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG M-55.
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NE. ALL OF WHICH ARE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. ENJOY THE DAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS/COOLER AIR DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPSTREAM...STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW IS SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING...GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY...MINIMAL FORECAST CONCERNS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S (COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES...ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND ADVANCE
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE FOR NRN MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL CREEP INTO THE S/SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEWPOINTS...OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 20S FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS START TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY LOWER FOR OUR INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE MS
VALLEY AND WEDGED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND WELL-DEVELOPED BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE QUEBEC.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BIT OF WET WEATHER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM...
SIMILAR IN FLAVOR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: BY THURSDAY MORNING...FAIRLY DECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER DETAILS
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
VARYING FROM NE IL TO AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MI. AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE...COULD SEE
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DRY E/ENE WIND WILL
CERTAINLY INHIBIT STEADIER RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH...NOT TO MENTION
THE BLOCKING DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH PREVENTING MUCH
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. AT THIS STAGE...CAN`T
DISAGREE WITH INHERITED POPS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS...IT
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS SKIES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AS NORMAL HIGHS
RANGE FROM 57 AT ANJ TO 62 AT TVC. HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE HURON STUCK IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RESULTING FROM A COOL E/ENE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON. MODERATING
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...WARMEST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE WEEKEND PICKS UP RIGHT WHERE THE WORK WEEK LEAVES OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DETAILS
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SIMILARLY FLAVORED SYSTEM TO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY`S TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIP SUNDAY-
MONDAY STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY WIND HOLDING STRONG. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AND IS WORTH CHECKING BACK ON AS
SEVERAL JUMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THAT WAVE MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES TOP OUT IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...VFR...

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND A
RELATIVELY LIGHT NE/E WIND...GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL INFILTRATE THE GTV BAY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WILL THICKEN INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AT TIMES. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271755
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. SUN IS SHINING...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE
CIRRUS SNEAKING INTO THE MANISTEE/CADILLAC AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...NEAR 50S
IN EASTERN UPPER...WARMING SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG M-55.
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NE. ALL OF WHICH ARE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. ENJOY THE DAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS/COOLER AIR DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPSTREAM...STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW IS SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING...GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY...MINIMAL FORECAST CONCERNS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S (COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES...ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND ADVANCE
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE FOR NRN MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL CREEP INTO THE S/SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEWPOINTS...OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 20S FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS START TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY LOWER FOR OUR INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE MS
VALLEY AND WEDGED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND WELL-DEVELOPED BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE QUEBEC.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BIT OF WET WEATHER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM...
SIMILAR IN FLAVOR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: BY THURSDAY MORNING...FAIRLY DECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER DETAILS
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
VARYING FROM NE IL TO AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MI. AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE...COULD SEE
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DRY E/ENE WIND WILL
CERTAINLY INHIBIT STEADIER RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH...NOT TO MENTION
THE BLOCKING DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH PREVENTING MUCH
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. AT THIS STAGE...CAN`T
DISAGREE WITH INHERITED POPS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS...IT
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS SKIES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AS NORMAL HIGHS
RANGE FROM 57 AT ANJ TO 62 AT TVC. HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE HURON STUCK IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RESULTING FROM A COOL E/ENE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON. MODERATING
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...WARMEST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE WEEKEND PICKS UP RIGHT WHERE THE WORK WEEK LEAVES OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DETAILS
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SIMILARLY FLAVORED SYSTEM TO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY`S TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIP SUNDAY-
MONDAY STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY WIND HOLDING STRONG. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AND IS WORTH CHECKING BACK ON AS
SEVERAL JUMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THAT WAVE MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES TOP OUT IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...VFR...

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND A
RELATIVELY LIGHT NE/E WIND...GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL INFILTRATE THE GTV BAY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WILL THICKEN INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AT TIMES. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271450
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. SUN IS SHINING...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE
CIRRUS SNEAKING INTO THE MANISTEE/CADILLAC AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...NEAR 50S
IN EASTERN UPPER...WARMING SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG M-55.
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NE. ALL OF WHICH ARE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. ENJOY THE DAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS/COOLER AIR DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPSTREAM...STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW IS SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING...GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY...MINIMAL FORECAST CONCERNS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S (COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES...ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND ADVANCE
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE FOR NRN MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL CREEP INTO THE S/SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEWPOINTS...OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 20S FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS START TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY LOWER FOR OUR INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE MS
VALLEY AND WEDGED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND WELL-DEVELOPED BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE QUEBEC.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BIT OF WET WEATHER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM...
SIMILAR IN FLAVOR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: BY THURSDAY MORNING...FAIRLY DECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER DETAILS
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
VARYING FROM NE IL TO AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MI. AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE...COULD SEE
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DRY E/ENE WIND WILL
CERTAINLY INHIBIT STEADIER RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH...NOT TO MENTION
THE BLOCKING DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH PREVENTING MUCH
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. AT THIS STAGE...CAN`T
DISAGREE WITH INHERITED POPS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS...IT
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS SKIES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AS NORMAL HIGHS
RANGE FROM 57 AT ANJ TO 62 AT TVC. HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE HURON STUCK IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RESULTING FROM A COOL E/ENE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON. MODERATING
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...WARMEST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE WEEKEND PICKS UP RIGHT WHERE THE WORK WEEK LEAVES OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DETAILS
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SIMILARLY FLAVORED SYSTEM TO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY`S TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIP SUNDAY-
MONDAY STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY WIND HOLDING STRONG. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AND IS WORTH CHECKING BACK ON AS
SEVERAL JUMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THAT WAVE MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES TOP OUT IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EDGING UP INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...BUT WITH WINDS TENDING TOWARD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. BUT...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE SFC
WILL LEAD TO EVENTUAL LLWS CONDITIONS TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KTVC AND KMBL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AT TIMES. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 271450
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. SUN IS SHINING...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE
CIRRUS SNEAKING INTO THE MANISTEE/CADILLAC AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...NEAR 50S
IN EASTERN UPPER...WARMING SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG M-55.
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NE. ALL OF WHICH ARE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. ENJOY THE DAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS/COOLER AIR DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPSTREAM...STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW IS SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING...GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY...MINIMAL FORECAST CONCERNS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S (COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES...ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND ADVANCE
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE FOR NRN MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL CREEP INTO THE S/SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEWPOINTS...OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 20S FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS START TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY LOWER FOR OUR INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE MS
VALLEY AND WEDGED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND WELL-DEVELOPED BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE QUEBEC.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BIT OF WET WEATHER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM...
SIMILAR IN FLAVOR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: BY THURSDAY MORNING...FAIRLY DECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER DETAILS
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
VARYING FROM NE IL TO AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MI. AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE...COULD SEE
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DRY E/ENE WIND WILL
CERTAINLY INHIBIT STEADIER RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH...NOT TO MENTION
THE BLOCKING DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH PREVENTING MUCH
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. AT THIS STAGE...CAN`T
DISAGREE WITH INHERITED POPS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS...IT
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS SKIES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AS NORMAL HIGHS
RANGE FROM 57 AT ANJ TO 62 AT TVC. HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE HURON STUCK IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RESULTING FROM A COOL E/ENE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON. MODERATING
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...WARMEST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE WEEKEND PICKS UP RIGHT WHERE THE WORK WEEK LEAVES OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DETAILS
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SIMILARLY FLAVORED SYSTEM TO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY`S TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIP SUNDAY-
MONDAY STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY WIND HOLDING STRONG. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AND IS WORTH CHECKING BACK ON AS
SEVERAL JUMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THAT WAVE MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES TOP OUT IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EDGING UP INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...BUT WITH WINDS TENDING TOWARD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. BUT...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE SFC
WILL LEAD TO EVENTUAL LLWS CONDITIONS TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KTVC AND KMBL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AT TIMES. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DICKSON
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270927
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
527 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS/COOLER AIR DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPSTREAM...STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW IS SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING...GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY...MINIMAL FORECAST CONCERNS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S (COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES...ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND ADVANCE
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE FOR NRN MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL CREEP INTO THE S/SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEWPOINTS...OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 20S FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS START TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY LOWER FOR OUR INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE MS
VALLEY AND WEDGED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND WELL-DEVELOPED BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE QUEBEC.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BIT OF WET WEATHER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM...
SIMILAR IN FLAVOR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: BY THURSDAY MORNING...FAIRLY DECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER DETAILS
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
VARYING FROM NE IL TO AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MI. AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE...COULD SEE
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DRY E/ENE WIND WILL
CERTAINLY INHIBIT STEADIER RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH...NOT TO MENTION
THE BLOCKING DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH PREVENTING MUCH
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. AT THIS STAGE...CAN`T
DISAGREE WITH INHERITED POPS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS...IT
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS SKIES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AS NORMAL HIGHS
RANGE FROM 57 AT ANJ TO 62 AT TVC. HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE HURON STUCK IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RESULTING FROM A COOL E/ENE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON. MODERATING
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...WARMEST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE WEEKEND PICKS UP RIGHT WHERE THE WORK WEEK LEAVES OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DETAILS
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SIMILARLY FLAVORED SYSTEM TO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY`S TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIP SUNDAY-
MONDAY STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY WIND HOLDING STRONG. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AND IS WORTH CHECKING BACK ON AS
SEVERAL JUMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THAT WAVE MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES TOP OUT IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EDGING UP INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED
TODAY...BUT WITH WINDS TENDING TOWARD ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. BUT...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE SFC
WILL LEAD TO EVENTUAL LLWS CONDITIONS TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KTVC AND KMBL.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AT TIMES. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270712
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS/COOLER AIR DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. UPSTREAM...STRONG
NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED LOW IS SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING...GENERATING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
ARKANSAS DOWN INTO EASTERN TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
NRN MICHIGAN.

TODAY...MINIMAL FORECAST CONCERNS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN...ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S (COOLEST
READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH LOW RH VALUES...ALTHOUGH TEMPS AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND ADVANCE
INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE FOR NRN MICHIGAN
ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL CREEP INTO THE S/SW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
FAR SW PART OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE WITH LOTS OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEWPOINTS...OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THERE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO 20S FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS START TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY LOWER FOR OUR INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER THE MS
VALLEY AND WEDGED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND WELL-DEVELOPED BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE OVER NE QUEBEC.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED SRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT-THURSDAY
...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BIT OF WET WEATHER INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
RATHER ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM...
SIMILAR IN FLAVOR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS: BY THURSDAY MORNING...FAIRLY DECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THAT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER DETAILS
DIVERGE IN TERMS OF WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
VARYING FROM NE IL TO AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MI. AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS
OUT WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE...COULD SEE
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DRY E/ENE WIND WILL
CERTAINLY INHIBIT STEADIER RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH...NOT TO MENTION
THE BLOCKING DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH PREVENTING MUCH
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. AT THIS STAGE...CAN`T
DISAGREE WITH INHERITED POPS...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-72 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF NRN LOWER. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SHOWERS...IT
WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH...LIKELY LESS THAN 0.10". BY FRIDAY MORNING ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LOW PRESSURE BARRELING WELL OFF TO OUR EAST
WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THUS SKIES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI AS NORMAL HIGHS
RANGE FROM 57 AT ANJ TO 62 AT TVC. HIGHS THURSDAY SOME 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...SAVE FOR AREAS ALONG LAKE HURON STUCK IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RESULTING FROM A COOL E/ENE WIND OFF OF LAKE HURON. MODERATING
TEMPS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...WARMEST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE WEEKEND PICKS UP RIGHT WHERE THE WORK WEEK LEAVES OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SAGGING IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DETAILS
DIVERGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SIMILARLY FLAVORED SYSTEM TO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY`S TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIP SUNDAY-
MONDAY STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST WITH A DRY EASTERLY WIND HOLDING STRONG. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES AND IS WORTH CHECKING BACK ON AS
SEVERAL JUMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THAT WAVE MAKES IT ONTO
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S. LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED)...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE MANY
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG LAKES TOP OUT IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THRU THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN WINDS UP TO 10KT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LAKES AT TIMES. BUT
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270328
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
HAS PUSHED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS FINALLY MOVED
SOUTH OF MBL EARLIER IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ARE FALLING BACK THRU
THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S...ON THE WAY TO WIDESPREAD 20S AND
PERHAPS A FEW TEENS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. NOT RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES BUT A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE PREVAILING THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS THAT THE
NEXT PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
SOME CLOUDINESS). HOWEVER...A MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE SHEARING IT
OUT. THIS IS DESPITE THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
WHICH APPEARS TO HOLD ITS GROUND. SO FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
REVOLVE AROUND POPS (IF ANY) AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER WEDNESDAY FOR SURE BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE LATE
APRIL HIGHS (WHICH ARE APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHEARING OUT. NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUN ON THE TRACK (GFS/NAM ARE FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE
ECMWF REMAINS SOUTH). THEREFORE...WILL HEDGE OUR BETS AND HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND BRING CLOUDS FARTHER
NORTH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
(COOLER). MEANWHILE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE MAKING IT
FEEL BRISK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL CHILLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST (NOT AS COOL DUE TO THE LIKELY CLOUDS).
DECREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE TO UPPER
UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING
GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES
GREATER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EASTWARD...PROVIDING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER BY MID-
WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THRU THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN WINDS UP TO 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN MANISTEE AND FRANKFORT...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF
WHITEFISH BAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270328
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
HAS PUSHED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS FINALLY MOVED
SOUTH OF MBL EARLIER IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ARE FALLING BACK THRU
THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S...ON THE WAY TO WIDESPREAD 20S AND
PERHAPS A FEW TEENS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. NOT RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES BUT A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE PREVAILING THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS THAT THE
NEXT PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
SOME CLOUDINESS). HOWEVER...A MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE SHEARING IT
OUT. THIS IS DESPITE THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
WHICH APPEARS TO HOLD ITS GROUND. SO FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
REVOLVE AROUND POPS (IF ANY) AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER WEDNESDAY FOR SURE BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE LATE
APRIL HIGHS (WHICH ARE APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHEARING OUT. NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUN ON THE TRACK (GFS/NAM ARE FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE
ECMWF REMAINS SOUTH). THEREFORE...WILL HEDGE OUR BETS AND HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND BRING CLOUDS FARTHER
NORTH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
(COOLER). MEANWHILE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE MAKING IT
FEEL BRISK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL CHILLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST (NOT AS COOL DUE TO THE LIKELY CLOUDS).
DECREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE TO UPPER
UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING
GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES
GREATER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EASTWARD...PROVIDING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER BY MID-
WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THRU THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH NORTHERN WINDS UP TO 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN MANISTEE AND FRANKFORT...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF
WHITEFISH BAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 270155
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
955 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

QUIET BUT COOL NIGHT AHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
HAS PUSHED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS FINALLY MOVED
SOUTH OF MBL EARLIER IN THE EVENING. TEMPS ARE FALLING BACK THRU
THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S...ON THE WAY TO WIDESPREAD 20S AND
PERHAPS A FEW TEENS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. NOT RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES BUT A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE PREVAILING THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS THAT THE
NEXT PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
SOME CLOUDINESS). HOWEVER...A MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE SHEARING IT
OUT. THIS IS DESPITE THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
WHICH APPEARS TO HOLD ITS GROUND. SO FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
REVOLVE AROUND POPS (IF ANY) AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER WEDNESDAY FOR SURE BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE LATE
APRIL HIGHS (WHICH ARE APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHEARING OUT. NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUN ON THE TRACK (GFS/NAM ARE FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE
ECMWF REMAINS SOUTH). THEREFORE...WILL HEDGE OUR BETS AND HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND BRING CLOUDS FARTHER
NORTH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
(COOLER). MEANWHILE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE MAKING IT
FEEL BRISK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL CHILLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST (NOT AS COOL DUE TO THE LIKELY CLOUDS).
DECREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE TO UPPER
UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING
GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES
GREATER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EASTWARD...PROVIDING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER BY MID-
WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR...EXCEPT AT MBL VERY EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. MVFR CLOUD
DECK CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM N TO S...AND WILL EXIT MBL OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN MANISTEE AND FRANKFORT...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF
WHITEFISH BAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 262357
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
757 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. NOT RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES BUT A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE PREVAILING THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS THAT THE
NEXT PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
SOME CLOUDINESS). HOWEVER...A MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE SHEARING IT
OUT. THIS IS DESPITE THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
WHICH APPEARS TO HOLD ITS GROUND. SO FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
REVOLVE AROUND POPS (IF ANY) AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER WEDNESDAY FOR SURE BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE LATE
APRIL HIGHS (WHICH ARE APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHEARING OUT. NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUN ON THE TRACK (GFS/NAM ARE FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE
ECMWF REMAINS SOUTH). THEREFORE...WILL HEDGE OUR BETS AND HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND BRING CLOUDS FARTHER
NORTH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
(COOLER). MEANWHILE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE MAKING IT
FEEL BRISK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL CHILLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST (NOT AS COOL DUE TO THE LIKELY CLOUDS).
DECREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE TO UPPER
UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING
GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES
GREATER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EASTWARD...PROVIDING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER BY MID-
WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR...EXCEPT AT MBL VERY EARLY ON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. MVFR CLOUD
DECK CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM N TO S...AND WILL EXIT MBL OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN MANISTEE AND FRANKFORT...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF
WHITEFISH BAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261936
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
336 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 20S...WITH A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS LIKELY
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. NOT RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES BUT A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE PREVAILING THOUGHT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS THAT THE
NEXT PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD TRACK BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
SOME CLOUDINESS). HOWEVER...A MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE SHEARING IT
OUT. THIS IS DESPITE THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
WHICH APPEARS TO HOLD ITS GROUND. SO FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
REVOLVE AROUND POPS (IF ANY) AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILDER WEDNESDAY FOR SURE BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE LATE
APRIL HIGHS (WHICH ARE APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER). HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. LOWS RANGING FROM THE CHILLY LOWER 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHEARING OUT. NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUN ON THE TRACK (GFS/NAM ARE FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE
ECMWF REMAINS SOUTH). THEREFORE...WILL HEDGE OUR BETS AND HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND BRING CLOUDS FARTHER
NORTH. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
(COOLER). MEANWHILE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE MAKING IT
FEEL BRISK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL CHILLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST (NOT AS COOL DUE TO THE LIKELY CLOUDS).
DECREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE TO UPPER
UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING
GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN
POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES
GREATER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PUSHING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EASTWARD...PROVIDING NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER BY MID-
WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...BIG IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...

CLEARING SKIES WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN MANISTEE AND FRANKFORT...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF
WHITEFISH BAY.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...KEYSOR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261649
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CLEARING CONTINUING TO WORK GRADUALLY SOUTH...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING...AS DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR PUSHES SOUTH. STRATUS/DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKING FOR A VERY CHILLY AND UNPLEASANT
MORNING WEATHERWISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. MADE A
FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLEARING TRENDS AND ADDED AREAS OF FOG
FOR THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO RISE UNTIL WE LOSE THE CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD RESPOND
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S /STILL QUITE CHILLY FOR LATE APRIL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG CLOSED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE SW CONUS THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A BOUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSES UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST
FEEDING INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND
REGION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...COMPACT SHORT WAVE IS ADVANCING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ATTENDING
SFC LOW SLIPPING THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED
A COMPACT BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE
REGION (MOSTLY LOWER MICHIGAN) LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULK OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG REMAINING DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
RESIDES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO BE MIXY OR FLAT OUT -SN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO
THE PRECIP...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER MINNESOTA.

TODAY: LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK THIS MORNING ALLOWING
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND COOLER AIR TO BUILD DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD FINALLY END SOMETIME
AROUND 8 AM...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS LAST BIT OF
PRECIP ROTATES THROUGH.

THEN...A GRADUAL NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEEING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING. BUT...
IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPSTREAM WEAK WAVE SLIPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BUT EVENTUALLY...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

(4/27)WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY, AND MOST OF THE
NIGHT, EXCEPT UNTIL AFTER 06Z, WHEN THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE WARM
FRONT BACK NORTH, AND JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH, THE POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO WHEN IT
COMES DOWN TO IT, WILL BE SURPRISED IF ANYTHING HAPPENS BEFORE 12Z.

(4/28)THURSDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THIS WILL PUSH THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH TO REASSERT ITSELF.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TYPICALLY A DRY FLOW, THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH THAT SETS UP, WILL BE DRY, BUT NOT WARM TO CAUSE
MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINDY
DAYS WHICH COULD ELEVATE FIRE DANGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT SAID, THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL SPIN OFF A SERIES OF SFC
LOWS THAT WILL PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC DAYS OF SHOWERS, PROBABLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
M-72. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
ARE WHAT IS EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN E UPPER TO THE LOWER 60S IN N LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...BIG IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...

CLEARING SKIES WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES ON THE LAKES FOR THE
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHTER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ348-
     349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...KEYSOR
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261447
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1047 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING...AS DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR PUSHES SOUTH. STRATUS/DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKING FOR A VERY CHILLY AND UNPLEASANT
MORNING WEATHERWISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. MADE A
FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLEARING TRENDS AND ADDED AREAS OF FOG
FOR THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO RISE UNTIL WE LOSE THE CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD RESPOND
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S /STILL QUITE CHILLY FOR LATE APRIL/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG CLOSED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE SW CONUS THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A BOUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSES UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST
FEEDING INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND
REGION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...COMPACT SHORT WAVE IS ADVANCING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ATTENDING
SFC LOW SLIPPING THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED
A COMPACT BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE
REGION (MOSTLY LOWER MICHIGAN) LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULK OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG REMAINING DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
RESIDES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO BE MIXY OR FLAT OUT -SN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO
THE PRECIP...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER MINNESOTA.

TODAY: LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK THIS MORNING ALLOWING
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND COOLER AIR TO BUILD DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD FINALLY END SOMETIME
AROUND 8 AM...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS LAST BIT OF
PRECIP ROTATES THROUGH.

THEN...A GRADUAL NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEEING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING. BUT...
IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPSTREAM WEAK WAVE SLIPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BUT EVENTUALLY...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

(4/27)WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY, AND MOST OF THE
NIGHT, EXCEPT UNTIL AFTER 06Z, WHEN THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE WARM
FRONT BACK NORTH, AND JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH, THE POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO WHEN IT
COMES DOWN TO IT, WILL BE SURPRISED IF ANYTHING HAPPENS BEFORE 12Z.

(4/28)THURSDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THIS WILL PUSH THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH TO REASSERT ITSELF.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TYPICALLY A DRY FLOW, THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH THAT SETS UP, WILL BE DRY, BUT NOT WARM TO CAUSE
MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINDY
DAYS WHICH COULD ELEVATE FIRE DANGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT SAID, THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL SPIN OFF A SERIES OF SFC
LOWS THAT WILL PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC DAYS OF SHOWERS, PROBABLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
M-72. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
ARE WHAT IS EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN E UPPER TO THE LOWER 60S IN N LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOSTLY IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING SE LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
BRING A GRADUAL NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE
DAY. NORTHERNMOST TERMINAL SITES (PLN/APN) WILL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FIRST...BY LATE MORNING...WITH TVC/MBL FOLLOWING SUITE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS...GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES ON THE LAKES FOR THE
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHTER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ348-
     349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ342.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 261133
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
733 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG CLOSED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE SW CONUS THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A BOUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSES UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST
FEEDING INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND
REGION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...COMPACT SHORT WAVE IS ADVANCING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ATTENDING
SFC LOW SLIPPING THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED
A COMPACT BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE
REGION (MOSTLY LOWER MICHIGAN) LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULK OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG REMAINING DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
RESIDES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO BE MIXY OR FLAT OUT -SN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO
THE PRECIP...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER MINNESOTA.

TODAY: LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK THIS MORNING ALLOWING
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND COOLER AIR TO BUILD DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD FINALLY END SOMETIME
AROUND 8 AM...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS LAST BIT OF
PRECIP ROTATES THROUGH.

THEN...A GRADUAL NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEEING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING. BUT...
IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPSTREAM WEAK WAVE SLIPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BUT EVENTUALLY...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

(4/27)WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY, AND MOST OF THE
NIGHT, EXCEPT UNTIL AFTER 06Z, WHEN THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE WARM
FRONT BACK NORTH, AND JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH, THE POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO WHEN IT
COMES DOWN TO IT, WILL BE SURPRISED IF ANYTHING HAPPENS BEFORE 12Z.

(4/28)THURSDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THIS WILL PUSH THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH TO REASSERT ITSELF.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TYPICALLY A DRY FLOW, THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH THAT SETS UP, WILL BE DRY, BUT NOT WARM TO CAUSE
MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINDY
DAYS WHICH COULD ELEVATE FIRE DANGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT SAID, THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL SPIN OFF A SERIES OF SFC
LOWS THAT WILL PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC DAYS OF SHOWERS, PROBABLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
M-72. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
ARE WHAT IS EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN E UPPER TO THE LOWER 60S IN N LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOSTLY IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING SE LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR WILL BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
BRING A GRADUAL NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE
DAY. NORTHERNMOST TERMINAL SITES (PLN/APN) WILL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FIRST...BY LATE MORNING...WITH TVC/MBL FOLLOWING SUITE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS...GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...BUT DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES ON THE LAKES FOR THE
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHTER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH TODAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ348-
     349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ344>346.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ342.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260729
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG CLOSED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE SW CONUS THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A BOUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSES UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST
FEEDING INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND
REGION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...COMPACT SHORT WAVE IS ADVANCING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ATTENDING
SFC LOW SLIPPING THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED
A COMPACT BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE
REGION (MOSTLY LOWER MICHIGAN) LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULK OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG REMAINING DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
RESIDES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO BE MIXY OR FLAT OUT -SN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO
THE PRECIP...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER MINNESOTA.

TODAY: LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK THIS MORNING ALLOWING
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND COOLER AIR TO BUILD DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD FINALLY END SOMETIME
AROUND 8 AM...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS LAST BIT OF
PRECIP ROTATES THROUGH.

THEN...A GRADUAL NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEEING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING. BUT...
IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPSTREAM WEAK WAVE SLIPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BUT EVENTUALLY...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

(4/27)WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY, AND MOST OF THE
NIGHT, EXCEPT UNTIL AFTER 06Z, WHEN THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE WARM
FRONT BACK NORTH, AND JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH, THE POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO WHEN IT
COMES DOWN TO IT, WILL BE SURPRISED IF ANYTHING HAPPENS BEFORE 12Z.

(4/28)THURSDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THIS WILL PUSH THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH TO REASSERT ITSELF.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TYPICALLY A DRY FLOW, THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH THAT SETS UP, WILL BE DRY, BUT NOT WARM TO CAUSE
MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINDY
DAYS WHICH COULD ELEVATE FIRE DANGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT SAID, THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL SPIN OFF A SERIES OF SFC
LOWS THAT WILL PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC DAYS OF SHOWERS, PROBABLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
M-72. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
ARE WHAT IS EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN E UPPER TO THE LOWER 60S IN N LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

...MVFR INTO TUE MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE NEARING HOLLAND MI WILL CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI
TONIGHT. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HANGING ON LONGEST FOR PLN/APN. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON INTO TUE MORNING (MBL WILL SEE THOUGH LOWER CIGS RETURN
SHORTLY)...LIFTING TO VFR MIDDAY OR IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONGOING EAST WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL BACK NE INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS GO LIGHT TUE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES ON THE LAKES FOR THE
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHTER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260729
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE DAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG CLOSED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE SW CONUS THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A BOUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING NOSES UP THROUGH THE MIDWEST
FEEDING INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND
REGION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA.

WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...COMPACT SHORT WAVE IS ADVANCING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ATTENDING
SFC LOW SLIPPING THROUGH SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED
A COMPACT BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE
REGION (MOSTLY LOWER MICHIGAN) LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BULK OF
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG REMAINING DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
RESIDES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO BE MIXY OR FLAT OUT -SN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO
THE PRECIP...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STRETCHES BACK THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER MINNESOTA.

TODAY: LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK THIS MORNING ALLOWING
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND COOLER AIR TO BUILD DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
MITT INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD FINALLY END SOMETIME
AROUND 8 AM...ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS LAST BIT OF
PRECIP ROTATES THROUGH.

THEN...A GRADUAL NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEEING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING. BUT...
IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY UPSTREAM WEAK WAVE SLIPPING THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BUT EVENTUALLY...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL END UP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CLEAR AND FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

(4/27)WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRY DAY, AND MOST OF THE
NIGHT, EXCEPT UNTIL AFTER 06Z, WHEN THE SFC LOW PUSHES THE WARM
FRONT BACK NORTH, AND JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH, THE POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, SO WHEN IT
COMES DOWN TO IT, WILL BE SURPRISED IF ANYTHING HAPPENS BEFORE 12Z.

(4/28)THURSDAY...AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THIS WILL PUSH THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOWS THE SFC HIGH TO REASSERT ITSELF.

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TYPICALLY A DRY FLOW, THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH THAT SETS UP, WILL BE DRY, BUT NOT WARM TO CAUSE
MAJOR FIRE CONCERNS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE WINDY
DAYS WHICH COULD ELEVATE FIRE DANGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT SAID, THE REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL SPIN OFF A SERIES OF SFC
LOWS THAT WILL PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC DAYS OF SHOWERS, PROBABLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
M-72. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
ARE WHAT IS EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN E UPPER TO THE LOWER 60S IN N LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

...MVFR INTO TUE MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE NEARING HOLLAND MI WILL CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI
TONIGHT. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HANGING ON LONGEST FOR PLN/APN. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON INTO TUE MORNING (MBL WILL SEE THOUGH LOWER CIGS RETURN
SHORTLY)...LIFTING TO VFR MIDDAY OR IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONGOING EAST WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL BACK NE INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS GO LIGHT TUE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES ON THE LAKES FOR THE
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHTER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE SKIES CLEAR OUT NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345>348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...ADAM





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260347
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1147 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

1001MB LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI. AS EXPECTED...
SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED AS FAR NORTH AS THE STRAITS AREA...
REQUIRING SOME (SMALL) ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EVENING FORECAST. TSRA
HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER A COOL/STABLE BL...SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
SMALL HAIL BUT LITTLE ELSE. MEANWHILE...PRECIP REMAINS MIXED OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI...WITH SAULT ONT REPORTING A RAIN/SLEET
MIX AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOUR.

THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AS THE WARM SECTOR GETS SHUNTED
FURTHER AWAY...FGEN FORCING WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. PER
RADAR TRENDS...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI.
MEANWHILE...PRECIP IS ABOUT TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN SW
SECTIONS.

NOTING THAT TEMPS ARE PRESENTLY HOVERING AROUND 34F OVER FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL...ARE THERE P-TYPE CONCERNS? MAYBE...BUT NOT SERIOUS
ONES. THERE IS NO SOURCE OF COLDER/DRIER BL AIR UPSTREAM YOU ARE
NE OF LAKE HURON. DON/T EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO GO ANYWHERE THRU
12Z. MEANWHILE...HUGE WARM NOSE PRESENT AT 825MB (7-8C)...AND WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO BE DISLODGED. THIS WARM NOSE SHOULD HOLD SOLID
THRU 09Z...BEFORE GETTING SUBSTANTIALLY ERODED BY 12Z. THIS LINES
UP WITH THE EXPECTED EXIT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL ADD IN A
MENTION OF SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AFTER 5 AM NORTH OF M-32.

EASTERN UPPER WILL BE MORE EMPHATICALLY IN A MIXED PRECIP TUNING-
TO-SNOW ZONE...BUT PRECIP WILL EXIT EVEN A LITTLE SOONER THERE AS
DRY AIR GETS ENTRAINED FROM THE NE. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MORE
THAN A SLOPPY INCH OR SO OF SNOW THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

THE CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT. THERE STILL HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN AND EVEN A COUPLE OF STRIKES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVER THE LAST HOUR. CONTINUED COMPLEX SETUP FOR
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION. THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS EXTREMELY TIGHT ACROSS
MICHIGAN SO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION (HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST) AS
WELL AS THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER)
REMAIN IN QUESTION.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FILL BACK IN AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW PIROUETTING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND COMBINING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER INDICATE THAT IT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH OR FOR ALL SNOW SCENARIO AND
HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST
UP THAT WAY (HOPE THAT HOLDS IT). ELEVATED WARM LAYER (SURFACE TO
ABOUT 700 MB) ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ERODES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STRIP OUT BEFORE IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW.
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DUE TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 6 TO 6.5 C/KM) ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: DOWNSTREAM NORTH
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CANADA BLOCKING WILL REMAIN DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IN THE PROCESS OF
TANKING...AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DO SO PER PERUSAL OF NEARLY ALL
GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF THIS BLOCK ENSURES A SEASONABLY COOL STRETCH OF WEATHER
AND HELPS SUPPRESS FUTURE SOUTHERN STREAM RAIN-MAKERS AS THEY PIVOT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. SO...ALL-IN-ALL...A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS MIDWEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING LINGERING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS EARLY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE
AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: PRIMARY FORCING TIED TO CURRENT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM IS
LARGELY TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. TOP-DOWN DRYING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY THE
LAST TO CLEAR...PROBABLY TAKING TO LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON TO DO SO. MOISTURE LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERHEAD SEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND
CLEAR SKIES SETS THE STAGE FOR A RATHER COLD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE ON A SLOW INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY PIVOTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. AS
MENTIONED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING HELPS LOCK IN
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...FORCING
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR MORE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY (AT LEAST PER NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS). PER PATTERN
RECOGNITION...REALLY HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS IDEA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
STRENGTH OF THAT -NAO SIGNATURE. GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT...CARRYING SOME VERY LOW POP SHOWER MENTION FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS WOULDN`T BE A BAD IDEA...ALTHOUGH REALLY STARTING TO
FEEL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE.

MBL

EXTENDED...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY LINGER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. SAID HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

...MVFR INTO TUE MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE NEARING HOLLAND MI WILL CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI
TONIGHT. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...HANGING ON LONGEST FOR PLN/APN. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
COMMON INTO TUE MORNING (MBL WILL SEE THOUGH LOWER CIGS RETURN
SHORTLY)...LIFTING TO VFR MIDDAY OR IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONGOING EAST WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL BACK NE INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS GO LIGHT TUE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES WILL IMPACT ALL MARINE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL/MSB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN





000
FXUS63 KAPX 260212
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1012 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

1001MB LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI. AS EXPECTED...
SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED AS FAR NORTH AS THE STRAITS AREA...
REQUIRING SOME (SMALL) ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EVENING FORECAST. TSRA
HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER A COOL/STABLE BL...SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
SMALL HAIL BUT LITTLE ELSE. MEANWHILE...PRECIP REMAINS MIXED OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI...WITH SAULT ONT REPORTING A RAIN/SLEET
MIX AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOUR.

THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AS THE WARM SECTOR GETS SHUNTED
FURTHER AWAY...FGEN FORCING WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. PER
RADAR TRENDS...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI.
MEANWHILE...PRECIP IS ABOUT TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN SW
SECTIONS.

NOTING THAT TEMPS ARE PRESENTLY HOVERING AROUND 34F OVER FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL...ARE THERE P-TYPE CONCERNS? MAYBE...BUT NOT SERIOUS
ONES. THERE IS NO SOURCE OF COLDER/DRIER BL AIR UPSTREAM YOU ARE
NE OF LAKE HURON. DON/T EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO GO ANYWHERE THRU
12Z. MEANWHILE...HUGE WARM NOSE PRESENT AT 825MB (7-8C)...AND WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO BE DISLODGED. THIS WARM NOSE SHOULD HOLD SOLID
THRU 09Z...BEFORE GETTING SUBSTANTIALLY ERODED BY 12Z. THIS LINES
UP WITH THE EXPECTED EXIT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL ADD IN A
MENTION OF SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AFTER 5 AM NORTH OF M-32.

EASTERN UPPER WILL BE MORE EMPHATICALLY IN A MIXED PRECIP TUNING-
TO-SNOW ZONE...BUT PRECIP WILL EXIT EVEN A LITTLE SOONER THERE AS
DRY AIR GETS ENTRAINED FROM THE NE. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MORE
THAN A SLOPPY INCH OR SO OF SNOW THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

THE CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES TONIGHT. THERE STILL HAVE BEEN A
COUPLE OF REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN AND EVEN A COUPLE OF STRIKES ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER OVER THE LAST HOUR. CONTINUED COMPLEX SETUP FOR
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION. THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS EXTREMELY TIGHT ACROSS
MICHIGAN SO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION (HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST) AS
WELL AS THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER)
REMAIN IN QUESTION.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FILL BACK IN AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW PIROUETTING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETTING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND COMBINING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER INDICATE THAT IT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH OR FOR ALL SNOW SCENARIO AND
HAVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST
UP THAT WAY (HOPE THAT HOLDS IT). ELEVATED WARM LAYER (SURFACE TO
ABOUT 700 MB) ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ERODES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO STRIP OUT BEFORE IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW.
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DUE TO MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 6 TO 6.5 C/KM) ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: DOWNSTREAM NORTH
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CANADA BLOCKING WILL REMAIN DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IN THE PROCESS OF
TANKING...AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DO SO PER PERUSAL OF NEARLY ALL
GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF THIS BLOCK ENSURES A SEASONABLY COOL STRETCH OF WEATHER
AND HELPS SUPPRESS FUTURE SOUTHERN STREAM RAIN-MAKERS AS THEY PIVOT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. SO...ALL-IN-ALL...A RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS MIDWEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING LINGERING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CONCERNS EARLY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE
AND CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

DETAILS: PRIMARY FORCING TIED TO CURRENT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM IS
LARGELY TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. TOP-DOWN DRYING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY THE
LAST TO CLEAR...PROBABLY TAKING TO LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON TO DO SO. MOISTURE LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY
EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERHEAD SEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND
CLEAR SKIES SETS THE STAGE FOR A RATHER COLD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE BIG WATERS.

HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE ON A SLOW INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY PIVOTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. AS
MENTIONED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING HELPS LOCK IN
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...FORCING
CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR MORE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY (AT LEAST PER NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE PROGS). PER PATTERN
RECOGNITION...REALLY HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS IDEA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
STRENGTH OF THAT -NAO SIGNATURE. GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT...CARRYING SOME VERY LOW POP SHOWER MENTION FOR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS WOULDN`T BE A BAD IDEA...ALTHOUGH REALLY STARTING TO
FEEL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE.

MBL

EXTENDED...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY LINGER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE. SAID HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE VARYING GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IMPACTING
NORTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY DURING THE LATTER HAVE OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN ORD AND MKE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MI TONIGHT. SHRA/SCT TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MI AT TIMES MOST OF TONIGHT...STARTING TO TAPER OFF
FROM W TO E LATE. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE AT VFR TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY.

ONGOING GUSTY E WINDS WILL BACK NE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES WILL IMPACT ALL MARINE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS/WAVES
DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...TJL/MSB
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SULLIVAN





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