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000
FXUS63 KAPX 232354
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
754 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High impact weather potential: Elevated fire weather conditions the
remainder of this afternoon, and again for parts of the area
Tuesday. Non-severe thunderstorm concerns Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Warm, early summer-like pattern
well established across the Great Lakes, with stout mid level
ridge axis overhead, all-the-while its surface reflection slowly
pushes off to our east. A super modified airmass and plenty of
sunshine has resulted in another day of well above normal
temperatures, with some areas across northern lower Michigan
topping the 80 degree mark this afternoon. While the warm weather
looks to last for the foreseeable future, the dry pattern will not
as overhead ridge eventually folds east of the region. This will
allow weak upstream front and plume of attendant deeper moisture
to push into our area on Tuesday, bringing the threat for showers
and a few thunderstorms along with it (with plenty of more rain
chances for the remainder of the week).

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Fire weather concerns for
the remainder of this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
Addressing shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday.

Details: First order of business centers on lingering elevated fire
danger concerns this afternoon. Very dry airmass and warm
temperatures in place across northern Michigan for the next few
hours, with both critical levels for temperatures and rh easily
being met across much of the area. Winds remain mostly light, a by-
product of light wind fields through a deepening mix layer. Some
gusts noted along advancing lake breezes, but these have been of
short duration. Expect this trend to continue, negating any specific
red flag warning (although brief red flag criteria conditions will
likely occur).

Fire weather concerns quickly end this evening. Otherwise another
quiet night, with any upstream shower activity likely waiting until
after sunrise Tuesday to reach our area. A much milder night
compared to recent standards, with maintenance of weak winds and a
deeply modified airmass keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

Definitely not a slam dunk all areas will see some much (much)
needed rain Tuesday. Moisture advection does continue as that
upstream cold front makes slow progress southeast through the
western lakes. Forcing is not terribly strong...with weak mid level
forcing and a rapid loss of any lower level jet support. Model
derived soundings/instability progs show some potential, with
upwards of a few hundred joules/kg of mean layer cape development.
Not even sold on this idea, as those same models shows lower 60
degree dewpoints by Tuesday afternoon. That sure seems aggressive
given recent very dry stretch of weather. Given such
concerns/uncertainties, will lower pops some (removing likely
wording). Thunder threat still there, but not seeing any severe
potential given weak wind fields and lack of deeper instability.

As for fire weather: Looking like another 2 out of 3 day, with warm
temperatures and marginally gusty winds being the culprits. As
mentioned, low level moisture will be on the increase, but likely
not to the magnitude being projected with some guidance progs.
Still, looks as if rh values will remain above critical levels
(hopefully). However, can definitely not argue with land management
agencies request to keep inherited fire weather watch through
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Deep upper-level troughing
centered over the Intermountain West with ridging centered squarely
over northern Michigan this afternoon. Surface high pressure will
steer our sensible weather through Tuesday morning with little in
the way of concern through that time (except for fire weather issues
through midday Tuesday). Ridging gradually breaks down Tuesday into
Tuesday night, setting the stage for a large scale pattern shift and
increasing precip chances for the middle to end of the upcoming week.

Forecast challenges:  PoPs/QPF/precip timing Tuesday night through
Thursday. Small severe threat for Thursday?

Details: Moisture starved cold front continues to trek across
northern Michigan, clearing the area Tuesday evening. However,
chance PoPs will continue to be the rule Tuesday night as slightly
unsettled conditions are expected to continue post frontal passage,
but all indications point toward precip remaining fairly scattered
in nature. While the best thunder chances will certainly be tied to
the front as instability peaks prior to FROPA, will go ahead and
continue slight chance of thunder for the remainder of the night to
account for limited remaining instability and an ill-defined post-
frontal shortwave progged to slide through the northern Great Lakes.

While warm and somewhat unsettled Wednesday, expecting much of the
daylight hours to remain dry as a pocket of low-mid level dry air
pinwheels through the region. The only exception may be far southern
areas late in the day as a tongue of moisture begins to trek
northward - generally limited to south of M-72. By Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, a warm front is progged to ride northward
into northern Michigan. As we`ve seen countless times in the past,
have concerns that the front may get hung up over southern Michigan
leading to more of a cooler/status type Wed night-Thu rather than
showers and potentially convection. Run-to-run model consistency
precludes overly high confidence and is worth monitoring in future
outlooks.

At this juncture, less confidence prevails in the details for
Thursday, all dependent on the surface warm front mentioned above.
If frontal positioning can make it as far north as the bridge/
eastern Upper, as progged by several guidance members, Thermodynamic
/kinematic parameters would certainly improve over portions of the
area with MLCAPE values approaching 1000-1200 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk
shear 30-45 kts, and low level lapse rates > 7 C/km. While
parameters would suggest that we`d have to be at least aware of a
scattered severe threat, virtually non-existent forcing may inhibit
much of any precip development Thursday afternoon. Have concerns
that the latest GFS may be considerably overdoing QPF/convective
signals Thu afternoon due to convectively induced vorticity maxima
upstream (tied to convection over southern Nebraska Wednesday night
that is modeled to slide northeastward toward the Great Lakes by Thu
afternoon). All in all, low confidence exists as to how Thursday
afternoon will end up playing out, but would be remiss to not at
least mention a small severe threat.

Mild temperatures are expected throughout the period with highs Wed
and Thu in the middle to upper 70s (cooler near the lakeshores)and
overnight lows ranging through the 50s.

Gillen

Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...

A frontal system that is anchored to a low in the
northern plains makes an attempt to advance further east Thursday
night. A warm front laying across the lakes (positions vary
depending on the model) and waves of energy lifting into the area
in advance of the actual frontal boundary...will set the stage for
convection across Michigan. The best chance for any significant
thunderstorms looks to be Thursday night into Friday right now.
That said...the eastern advancement of this system stalls
again...keeping unsettled conditions around for the duration of
the holiday weekend. Stuck in a warm and relatively humid airmass
(for northern Michigan), thoughts are that we`ll be dodging the
more hit and miss type of shower/thunderstorm activity. Although
this could damper Memorial weekend activities for some...the more
important point is the much needed rainfall to help the fire
situation.

KAB

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

...VFR conditions continue...

High pressure continues to hang on over the eastern lakes region
with mainly clear skies across northern lower Michigan. Upstream,
southerly return flow of moisture into the midwest and far western
Great Lakes is firing off pockets of showers and storms into
Iowa/Minnesota and Wisconsin. Southerly return flow will
eventually shift into lower Michigan on Tuesday and bring the
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to the region.

Clear skies and VFR conditions tonight. Upstream band of cloud
cover and some showers/storms shift into northern lower Michigan
on Tuesday. Mainly VFR bkn cigs anticipated however.

Winds, light tonight. There is a marginal possibility for low end
LLWS to develop at PLN/TVC/MBL overnight, but I have not included
in the terminal forecasts at this juncture (may add with the 06Z
issuance). SW winds on Tuesday around 10 knots with some higher
gusts anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Sub advisory gusty winds will continue across the waters
tonight and Tuesday as a weak front slowly advances across the
region. Dry weather will give way to increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances Tuesday, with the threat for more showers and
storms continuing through the remainder of the week.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-019-
     021-027-033.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...Gillen/KAB
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231757
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
157 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Sunny and warm. About sums it up for today as high pressure at the
surface and aloft remain centered overhead. Per 12z sounding and a
more modified airmass, see little reason some interior locations
of northern lower Michigan will not reach 80 degrees. Light
pressure gradient will allow good to well organized lake breeze
development this afternoon, keeping those nearshore communities a
touch cooler.

As for fire weather: Definitely looks like the 2 out of 3 rule
applies...with warm temperatures and an expected quick mixing out
of any lingering low level moisture. Per recent trends and that
12z sounding...fully expect parts of northeast lower to experience
afternoon rh values approaching the upper teens/lower 20s. Some
good news...with overhead high pressure keeping winds light
through the growing boundary layer, with analysis of soundings
showing sub 12kt winds through the mixed layer this afternoon. May
see a few gusts along inward pushing lake breezes, but these
should be temporary. See no need to change inherited Fire Weather
Watch per these trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region early
this morning. Strong subsidence combined with dry air thru the
entire column continues to result in clear skies for all of Michigan
and even Wisconsin per latest IR satellite loop and regional obs.
Temps continue to fall thru the 40s and into the 30s for many
locations across our CWA. However...still expect most locations will
remain above freezing prior to sunrise...with only patchy frost
expected.

Nrn Michigan will see one more 24 period of dry weather before
precip chances finally increase on Tuesday along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. Deep dry air and strong subsidence will
remain the rule today and tonight...resulting in a continuation of
clear skies and low level winds sufficiently weak to allow for lake
breeze development again today. Low level winds shifting to the
south as the high center slides just east of Michigan will draw
warmer air into our state today...with afternoon highs warming into
the mid 70s to around 80 degrees...cooler near the lakeshores as
usual. Low temps tonight will only fall into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

...Warm and showery over the next several days...

The ridge of high pressure breaks down/drifts off to our east
Tuesday allowing for a large scale pattern change to take shape
across the western Great Lakes. The new pattern will feature higher
humidity levels and an extended period with decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This will be the result of
several pieces of energy ejecting out of a long wave trough which
will be centered across the western states. Although the details
remain rather uncertain, there still could be some strong to severe
storms Thursday into Friday depending upon how much heating we can
generate as it appears that there will be a surface warm front
lurking somewhere in the vicinity plus we get into stronger wind
fields aloft. Any rainfall will be welcomed with open arms as it has
gotten awfully dry out there. Overall, temperatures through the
period are expected to be a few degrees above normal for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions to continue. High clouds will increase late, with
the potential for some cu development Tuesday morning as lower
level moisture begins to increase. Latest trends support any rain
showers Tuesday remaining scattered, and not worthy of a specific
mention in the forecast just yet. Winds will remain light, with
some locally lake breeze development. Winds increase Tuesday
morning, and will need to monitor potential for some late night
wind shear development as low level jet increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru tonight as high
pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great Lakes
region. Dry weather will persist thru tonight as well. Winds...waves
and precip chances will all increase on Tuesday as a cold front
approaches during the day and sweeps thru the region at night.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-019-
     021-027-033.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ017-018-
     022>024-028>030-034>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 231046
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
646 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region early
this morning. Strong subsidence combined with dry air thru the
entire column continues to result in clear skies for all of Michigan
and even Wisconsin per latest IR satellite loop and regional obs.
Temps continue to fall thru the 40s and into the 30s for many
locations across our CWA. However...still expect most locations will
remain above freezing prior to sunrise...with only patchy frost
expected.

Nrn Michigan will see one more 24 period of dry weather before
precip chances finally increase on Tuesday along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. Deep dry air and strong subsidence will
remain the rule today and tonight...resulting in a continuation of
clear skies and low level winds sufficiently weak to allow for lake
breeze development again today. Low level winds shifting to the
south as the high center slides just east of Michigan will draw
warmer air into our state today...with afternoon highs warming into
the mid 70s to around 80 degrees...cooler near the lakeshores as
usual. Low temps tonight will only fall into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

...Warm and showery over the next several days...

The ridge of high pressure breaks down/drifts off to our east
Tuesday allowing for a large scale pattern change to take shape
across the western Great Lakes. The new pattern will feature higher
humidity levels and an extended period with decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This will be the result of
several pieces of energy ejecting out of a long wave trough which
will be centered across the western states. Although the details
remain rather uncertain, there still could be some strong to severe
storms Thursday into Friday depending upon how much heating we can
generate as it appears that there will be a surface warm front
lurking somewhere in the vicinity plus we get into stronger wind
fields aloft. Any rainfall will be welcomed with open arms as it has
gotten awfully dry out there. Overall, temperatures through the
period are expected to be a few degrees above normal for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Nrn Michigan will see one more 24 hour period of solid VFR
conditions as high pressure and dry air remain firmly in control.
Lake breezes will again develop by around midday...but will be not
quite as prominent today as low level winds begin to strengthen a
bit ahead of the approaching cold front well upstream.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru tonight as high
pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great Lakes
region. Dry weather will persist thru tonight as well. Winds...waves
and precip chances will all increase on Tuesday as a cold front
approaches during the day and sweeps thru the region at night.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MIZ016-019-021-027-033.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 230707
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
307 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region early
this morning. Strong subsidence combined with dry air thru the
entire column continues to result in clear skies for all of Michigan
and even Wisconsin per latest IR satellite loop and regional obs.
Temps continue to fall thru the 40s and into the 30s for many
locations across our CWA. However...still expect most locations will
remain above freezing prior to sunrise...with only patchy frost
expected.

Nrn Michigan will see one more 24 period of dry weather before
precip chances finally increase on Tuesday along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. Deep dry air and strong subsidence will
remain the rule today and tonight...resulting in a continuation of
clear skies and low level winds sufficiently weak to allow for lake
breeze development again today. Low level winds shifting to the
south as the high center slides just east of Michigan will draw
warmer air into our state today...with afternoon highs warming into
the mid 70s to around 80 degrees...cooler near the lakeshores as
usual. Low temps tonight will only fall into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

...Warm and showery over the next several days...

The ridge of high pressure breaks down/drifts off to our east
Tuesday allowing for a large scale pattern change to take shape
across the western Great Lakes. The new pattern will feature higher
humidity levels and an extended period with decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This will be the result of
several pieces of energy ejecting out of a long wave trough which
will be centered across the western states. Although the details
remain rather uncertain, there still could be some strong to severe
storms Thursday into Friday depending upon how much heating we can
generate as it appears that there will be a surface warm front
lurking somewhere in the vicinity plus we get into stronger wind
fields aloft. Any rainfall will be welcomed with open arms as it has
gotten awfully dry out there. Overall, temperatures through the
period are expected to be a few degrees above normal for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

..VFR weather continues...

High pressure and dry air remain fixed across the Great Lakes and
will continue to produce mainly clear skies and VFR flight
conditions through Monday, save for patches of high cloud drifting
through the region.

Light winds tonight becoming southwest 10 knots or less on Monday.
Winds diminish again Monday night. However, increasing SW return
flow Monday night may begin to produce LLWS conditions at the
terminal sites late Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday.
Have not included in the TAF forecasts yet (may be after the
current 06Z TAF end time). But something to plan for.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru tonight as high
pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great Lakes
region. Dry weather will persist thru tonight as well. Winds...waves
and precip chances will all increase on Tuesday as a cold front
approaches during the day and sweeps thru the region at night.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MIZ016-019-021-027-033.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 230005
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High Impact Weather Potential...Patchy frost in low lying areas
tonight. Elevated fire weather concerns on Monday.

Ridging at surface and aloft builds slowly across Michigan
through the day on Monday, becoming squeezed between areas of low
pressure both east and west. With strong ridging in place and deep
layer drying, little in the way of cloudiness expected. Very low
soil moisture, clear skies, light winds and low dewpoints will
result in excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight. Some
areas will likely see a 35+ degree diurnal temperature range. Our
typically colder locations will drop into the middle 30s with even
a few lower 30s possible through the Au Sable Valley, resulting
in patchy frost. The frost will be not widespread enough to
warrant a headline but will mention in the forecast and HWO.
Becoming quite a bit warmer on Monday as H8 thermal ridge builds
toward the western lakes with 12-13 degc air. Brought down dry
adiabatically these temps support high temps into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Still not much wind on Monday as there remains limited
winds through the mixed layer /10-15kts/.

Fire weather...Continuing fire weather concerns on Monday. Despite
having a relatively weak wind regime /10-15kts/, plenty of things
will elevate the fire danger including very low fuel moistures,
temperatures around 80 degrees and afternoon relative humidity
values in the teens east of I-75.  After a conference call with the
USFS and DNR, it was decided to keep the Fire Weather Watch for
Monday /and extend it into Tuesday - see discussion below/.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Deep upper-level troughing
centered over the Intermountain West with ridging evident across
the midsection of the CONUS this afternoon. Associated sfc high
pressure will drive our sensible weather through Tuesday morning
with little in the way of issues (save for fire weather concerns)
through that time. Ridging gradually breaks down Tuesday into
Tuesday night, setting the stage for a large scale pattern shift
for the middle to end of the upcoming week.

Forecast challenges: Frontal timing Tuesday and associated minimum
RH values/increasing cloud cover - perhaps leading to another
elevated fire danger day. PoPs/QPF/timing for Tuesday-Wednesday.

Details: Surface high pressure squarely overhead Monday night is
expected to lead to mainly clear skies and light winds before a
moisture starved cold front begins to slide toward northern Michigan
during the day Tuesday. Not expecting much more than a gradual
increase in cloud cover from west to east Tuesday across much of the
area (perhaps a few showers over western Chippewa/ Mackinac counties
Tuesday morning ). While PoPs increase south of the bridge Tue
afternoon, it certainly doesn`t look to be a widespread precip day
by any means with any precip remaining fairly scattered in nature.
Have no reason to disagree with inherited thunder chances as warm
temperatures and increasing dew points aid in a couple hundred J/kg
of MLCAPE across the majority of the area. Tuesday could be somewhat
of a sneaky fire weather day, mainly across northeast Lower, but all
dependent on frontal timing and inherent cloudiness. Temperatures
(talked about more below) should surge into the middle 80s in
downsloping locations. Combined with antecedent dry conditions, min
RHs of 25-35%, slow-to-increase cloud cover east of I-75,
occasionally gusty winds, and after collaboration with the DNR and
USFS, will go ahead add mention of fire weather concerns on Tuesday
to the HWO and issue a fire watch for portions of the area late
Tuesday morning through the mid-afternoon.

Chance PoPs and thunder chances continue Tuesday night through
Wednesday, again with little in the way coverage. Have a feeling the
majority of the daylight hours Wednesday may end up being completely
dry for many as a pocket of dry low-mid level air may inhibit much
of what precip is able to develop making it to the surface.

Warm temperatures are expected throughout the period. Mild overnight
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Tuesday is expected to be the
warmest of the week with highs topping 80 degrees away from the big
lakes, mid to perhaps even a few tagging the upper 80s for downslope
affected locations of northeast Lower. Slightly cooler Wednesday
post frontal passage, but still a few degrees above normal, ranging
through the 70s.

Gillen

Unsettled pattern into Memorial weekend. We will remain on the
upslope side of ridging over the eastern CONUS, with the
combination of strong return flow and shortwave impulses moving
through the flow bringing rain chances. Difficult to nail down any
kind of timing right now with the impulses racing through, but we
should pick up some needed rainfall, with perhaps some rumbles of
thunder. Still keeping an eye on the possibility for some stronger
storms. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the
period.

MAYHEW

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

...VFR weather continues...

High pressure and dry air remain fixed across the Great Lakes and
will continue to produce mainly clear skies and VFR flight
conditions through Monday.

Light winds tonight becoming southwest 10 knots or less on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday
night as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the
Great Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Monday night as
well.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for MIZ016-019-021-027-033.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     for MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keysor
LONG TERM...Gillen/Mayhew
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Keysor





000
FXUS63 KAPX 221636
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1236 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Very few changes to the current forecast with high pressure
building overhead with deep layer dry air in place. Did adjust
high temperatures down slightly given the 12z soundings, with most
areas reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s /a bit cooler near
the coast/. Winds have a been a bit gustier than expected this
morning. Forecast soundings show winds coming down a bit this
afternoon as lighter wind flow aloft builds into Northern
Michigan.

Elevated fire danger continues, although slightly cooler
temperatures today will result in afternoon RH values not being
quite as low as yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Weak moisture-starved cool front has pushed southeast of our CWA
early this morning. Area of mid cloud associated with the front has
followed suite...leaving mainly clear skies across our entire CWA.
Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column are building back
into the Wrn Great Lakes region behind this front...reinforcing our
rather persistently hostile environment toward any chance of precip
or even low clouds.

High pressure center will build south out of Ontario into Michigan
today and tonight...with virtually no moisture at any level to
produce much in the way of cloud cover. Expect a sunny day across
the Northwoods. Temps will not be quite as warm as yesterday thanks
to weak low level CAA behind the front. Afternoon highs will peak
mainly in the lower 70s...cooler near the lakeshores. Clear skies
and light/calm winds tonight will allow temps to cool into the upper
30s to mid 40s. At this point...do not expect any frost development
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

...Warm temperatures over the next several days...

Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the region under mostly
clear skies Monday into Monday night. It will be very warm Monday as
well with highs pushing well into the 70s to the lower 80s. Humidity
levels will remain rather low though...and southerly winds will
become a bit gusty...leading to the continuance of the fire weather
watch for Monday. The ridge breaks down Tuesday allowing for a large
scale pattern change to take shape across the western Great Lakes.
This will feature higher humidity levels and decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms as pieces of energy eject out of
a long wave trough centered across the western states. There still
could be some strong to severe storms Thursday depending upon how
much heating we can generate as it appears that there will be a
surface warm front lurking somewhere in the vicinity. Any rainfall
will be welcomed as we could definitely use the moisture.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will result in VFR
conditions through Monday. Outside of some thin cirrus, few clouds
expected. Winds generally light through the period at less than
10kts, with a few locally higher gusts possible during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Expect lake breeze development this
afternoon and again on Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday night as
high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great
Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Monday night as well.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-033>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Keysor
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Keysor
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 220700
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Weak moisture-starved cool front has pushed southeast of our CWA
early this morning. Area of mid cloud associated with the front has
followed suite...leaving mainly clear skies across our entire CWA.
Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column are building back
into the Wrn Great Lakes region behind this front...reinforcing our
rather persistently hostile environment toward any chance of precip
or even low clouds.

High pressure center will build south out of Ontario into Michigan
today and tonight...with virtually no moisture at any level to
produce much in the way of cloud cover. Expect a sunny day across
the Northwoods. Temps will not be quite as warm as yesterday thanks
to weak low level CAA behind the front. Afternoon highs will peak
mainly in the lower 70s...cooler near the lakeshores. Clear skies
and light/calm winds tonight will allow temps to cool into the upper
30s to mid 40s. At this point...do not expect any frost development
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

...Warm temperatures over the next several days...

Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the region under mostly
clear skies Monday into Monday night. It will be very warm Monday as
well with highs pushing well into the 70s to the lower 80s. Humidity
levels will remain rather low though...and southerly winds will
become a bit gusty...leading to the continuance of the fire weather
watch for Monday. The ridge breaks down Tuesday allowing for a large
scale pattern change to take shape across the western Great Lakes.
This will feature higher humidity levels and decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms as pieces of energy eject out of
a long wave trough centered across the western states. There still
could be some strong to severe storms Thursday depending upon how
much heating we can generate as it appears that there will be a
surface warm front lurking somewhere in the vicinity. Any rainfall
will be welcomed as we could definitely use the moisture.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

...Continuing VFR flight conditions...

Weak/moisture starved front continues to sag down through northern
lower Michigan bringing along a narrow ribbon of mid cloud cover
through the region. Still a few pockets of precip returns on KAPX
radar over NE lower Michigan with said mid cloud deck, but
doubtful there is much getting to the ground giving the dry lower
levels, other than maybe a few sprinkles.

Batch of mid cloud will slip through the region overnight with
the front, followed by surface high pressure rebuilding across
the Great Lakes later through Sunday. There is some lower cloud
cover upstream behind the front across southern Ontario. But
doubtful that any of that makes it into northern Michigan. So,
clearing skies anticipated overnight and mainly clear skies for
Sunday.

Light winds tonight, increasing to 10 knots or less Sunday.
Mainly from the north although lake breezes will again locally
turn winds more onshore at the terminal sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday night as
high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great
Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Monday night as well.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-033>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MLR





000
FXUS63 KAPX 212335
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
735 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather amplified flow regime
established across the Conus, with stout plains ridge bookend by
rather robust west coast and eastern Great Lakes centered trough
axes. Northern Michigan placed squarely under the interface of
slowly eastward building upstream ridge and just as slow to depart
troughing, although elongated surface high continues to dominate
at the surface. There is a very weak surface trough/cool front
dropping into the northern lakes, itself tied to passing mid level
wave digging to our northeast. Band of clouds associated with
these features, just now starting to dive into eastern upper
Michigan. Much more consolidated band of clouds just to the
northeast, with just deep enough moisture/forcing to even kick off
a few very light showers across Ontario. Otherwise, just another
delightful day across the northwoods, with continuation of above
normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine (a few very high based
cu on top of deep and well mixed boundary layer). Earlier
described mid level pattern slowly progresses east in the coming
days, with that upstream ridge looking to center itself directly
overhead Monday night. This sets the stage for a continuation of
dry and mild weather into the start of the work week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud trends.

Details: Only story tonight remains those northern clouds, some of
which should skirt our northeast areas this evening.  Per linear
extrapolation and recent satellite trends, actually starting to
think areas of eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan may trend
mostly cloudy for a time later this afternoon into early evening,
with skies clearing out again through the overnight.  Given dearth
of low level moisture, simply not seeing any opportunity for those
upstream surface reaching showers to make it this far south.
If anything does survive, it should be nothing more than a few
sprinkles.  With those additional clouds and an increasingly
modified airmass, temperatures tonight should stay rather mild, with
readings by sunrise Sunday mostly in the mid and upper 40s.

Fire Weather...Borderline red flag conditions at some sights this
afternoon as deep mixing and increasingly dry low levels have
taken their collective toll. Not expecting this to be of long
duration or widespread, so will forgo any red flag warnings
(although will continue to highlight elevated fire danger wording
in our products). Decent rh recovery expected tonight, with values
once again dropping rather quickly Sunday. While widespread
critical level rh values will be realized, slightly cooler
temperatures and light winds should keep conditions below red flag
warning criteria. However, given recent dry spell and borderline
conditions, will continue to highlight elevated fire danger
concerns.  BOGUTH

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

High impact weather potential: Elevated fire danger on Sunday and
Monday

High pressure and drying through the column will result in a mostly
sunny Sunday, with nothing more than a few cirrus.  Weak caa in
north to northeast flow regime, coupled with lower mixing heights,
should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than those observed
the last couple days.  Still mild, however, with highs in the lower
to middle 70s away from the big waters.  Onshore flow will keep
those nearshore communities a touch cooler.   BOGUTH

Sunday night through Tuesday night...Ridging at surface and aloft
builds slowly across Michigan through the day on Monday, becoming
squeezed between areas of low pressure both east and west.  With
strong ridging in place and deep layer drying, little in the way of
cloudiness expected.  Low soil moisture and low dewpoints will
result in excellent radiational cooling conditions and we could
easily see a 35-40 degree diurnal temperature range in some
areas. The typically colder locations could dip into the middle
and upper 30s /patchy frost?/. Becoming quite warm on Monday as H8
thermal ridge builds toward the western lakes with 13-14 degc air.
Brought down dry adiabatically these temps support high temps into
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still not much wind on Monday as there
remains limited winds through the mixed layer /10-15 mph/.

Upper ridge axis slides east of the area Monday night into Tuesday,
with developing return flow bringing higher dewpoint air northward
toward the Great Lakes.   A shortwave and associated weak frontal
boundary will push out of the Upper Midwest and toward the area on
Tuesday, weakening a bit as it pushes into downstream ridging.
Clouds will increase, along with scattered shower/tstm chances, as
an axis of steeper mid level lapse rates /7-8degc/ and deeper
moisture pushes into the area. Tuesday could be very warm over
eastern parts of the area, dependent on how quickly the clouds
thicken up. 850mb temps would support readings into the lower to
middle 80s east of I-75 /enhanced by downslope flow/.

Fire weather...Another elevated fire danger day on Monday with low
afternoon RH and very warm temperatures.  Still lacking the wind
component /only 10-15 kts through the mixed layer/.  Given the fact
that historically, a number of large fires have occurred on similar
wind regimes /based on DNR records/, this is definitely a day to
watch fire weatherwise.    KEYSOR

Certainly a pattern switch coming for the extended. With the ridge
axis now off to our east, we will still be under slight ridging,
with shortwave impulses ejecting out of deep troughing out west.
This, combined with low pressure moving through the plains and to
our west, will drive shower chances through the extended period.
There may also be some rumbles of thunder, especially mid to late
week. There could be some stronger storms, really dependent on when
and where the low tracks. Something to keep an eye as we go through
the week.    MAYHEW

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

...Continuing VFR flight conditions...

Weak/moisture starved front is dropping down through northern
lower Michigan this evening bringing along a narrow ribbon of mid
cloud cover through the region. Regional weather radars show a few
pockets of precip returns with the mid cloud deck, but doubtful
there is much getting to the ground giving the dry lower levels,
other than maybe a few sprinkles.

Batch of mid cloud will slip through the region this evening with
the front followed by surface high pressure rebuilding across the
Great Lakes later tonight through Sunday. There is some lower
cloud cover upstream behind the front across southern Ontario. But
doubtful that any of that makes it into northern Michigan. So, clearing
skies anticipated overnight and mainly clear skies for Sunday.

Winds diminish for tonight, increase to 10 knots or less Sunday.
Mainly from the north although lake breezes will again locally
turn winds more onshore at the terminal sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

No sign of any significant wind/wave concerns for the next
several days.  Dry weather will also prevail, with the potential for
a few showers and thunderstorms not arriving until Tuesday.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-033>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...Keysor
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...MSB





000
FXUS63 KAPX 211744
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
144 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Northern Michigan centered between Ohio Valley low pressure and a
moisture starved cold front dropping south into Lake Superior.
Region remains completely devoid of any appreciable low level
moisture...a fact made evident by local 12z sounding showing complete
dearth of moisture below h7. Some moisture well above this
layer...enough so to continue to result in patches of cirrus
traversing above the landscape. While cirrus should continue to
thin...band of mid level moisture associated with that approaching
front will make a run into at least the northeast sections of the
area later today into this evening. Even had some sprinkles
reaching the ground across Ontario with this moisture axis. Per
trends and simple surface rooted deep layer dry wedge...not
expecting the same as it moves into our area.

Fire weather concerns: Temperatures will continue to warm...with
afternoon readings once again pushing well into the 70s. Mixing
heights at around 10kft will also allow rh values to plummet...resulting
in critical levels being achieved for most. Winds will remain
fairly light (at times a touch gusty)...but should fall below
critical values. Thus...no specific fire headlines
needed...although no doubt will continue elevated fire danger
wording in all our hazardous weather products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

High pressure remains centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley and
the Great Lakes region early this morning. Low pressure continues to
make its way eastward thru the Ohio Valley and into the
Appalachians...producing areas of showers and a few thunderstorms
from Nrn Indiana thru Ohio...West Virginia and Virginia. Nrn edge of
the thicker cirrus shield associated with this convection to our
south and east remains over all of Lwr Michigan and far Ern Upr
Michigan...helping to keep temps in the 40s to lower 50s early this
morning.

Low pressure will continue to slide east to the mid Atlantic states
today. Thick cirrus shield will follow suite. However...a weak
moisture-starved front will drop south out of Ontario and just clip
our CWA...resulting only in an increase in mid clouds this afternoon
and evening. High pressure and dry air will then be reinforced
across the Wrn Great Lakes region overnight in the wake of the
passing front. Overall sky conditions today and this evening will be
partly cloudy...with some clearing overnight. Light wind regime will
again allow for lake breeze development again by midday. High temps
will warm mainly into the mid 70s for most of our CWA...with cooler
temps near the lakeshores as is usual for this time of year. Low
temps tonight will cool back into the 40s across our entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

...Continued nice and warm through early next week...

Ridging at the surface and aloft reestablishes itself across the
region Sunday and holds into Monday. Not quite as warm Sunday but
Monday should be very warm once again. Elevated fire danger this
weekend due to warm afternoon and early evening temperatures and low
relative humidity (dry airmass). The wind picks up some on Monday so
fire danger could even rise to above elevated (but plenty of time to
assess this). The pattern then becomes a little more chaotic with an
initial piece of energy emerging out of the western trough ramming
into the ridge in place Tuesday. More pieces of energy then break
free of the main long wave western trough for the middle and end of
next week. This will lead to chances for showers and slight chances
for thunderstorms (we need the rain so bring it on!). There is even
a chance for strong to severe storms Thursday depending upon the
amount of daytime heating and resultant instability as a surface
warm front most likely sets up across or just to the south of the
forecast area. Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly
above average late May highs through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Little problems for this taf cycle. Band of mid clouds to sweep
south across the area this evening, particularly across KAPN.
Otherwise, a mostly clear forecast with light winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 21 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the weekend as
high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great
Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Sunday as well.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MLR





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